Utopia Talk / Politics / Russia Strikes Back

Pillz rank	Fri Jan 13 18:22:03 2023 Soledar is officially Russian controlled. Bakhmut is very close to being cut off and surrounded. The British will announced their challenger aid package next week. Germans will also be announcing shipment of leopards soon. So Ukrainian armour is finally exhausted. And jergul probably has his answer as to why Russia hasn't cut off western Ukraine. Why not wait for several hundred western tanks to arrive first... tanks that are entirely dependent on a supply train to Poland.
Sam Adams rank	Fri Jan 13 18:36:31 2023 "Why not wait" Rofl
jergul rank	Sat Jan 14 02:09:32 2023 Pillz I think part of it is that Ukrainian logistics is heavily strained already. Bakmusk is a long way from the Polish frontier. Part of it is preparations for countermoves. Moving troops to block Ukrainians moving into Belarus because cut off from western ukraine etc. Part of it to fill the bag more as you suggest. And part of it to avoid obvious blowback from humanitarian disaster in Ukraine East of Dniepr.
jergul rank	Sat Jan 14 02:09:58 2023 Bakmut rather*
Dukhat rank	Sat Jan 14 03:44:33 2023 Ukraine should let russia retake a lot of land, let them overextend themselves and then encircle and trap themselves. This war will not end until Ukraine has like 100,000 soldiers to as collateral.
Dukhat rank	Sat Jan 14 03:44:46 2023 Trap the ruskies*
Dukhat rank	Sat Jan 14 03:45:17 2023 Ukraine taking out the trash: "What should we do? HIMARS or MLRS?"
Sam Adams rank	Sat Jan 14 06:02:28 2023 "Ukraine should let russia retake a lot of land, let them overextend themselves and then encircle and trap themselves." Rofl Between pillz and cuckhat we have some master fucking strategists in this thread.
LazyCommunist rank	Sat Jan 14 16:35:41 2023 I would love to see it, Japan should stream it live! http://www...disembowel-himself-2023-01-14/ Jan 14 (Reuters) - Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev accused Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on Saturday of shameful subservience to the United States and suggested he should ritually disembowel himself. It was the latest in a long line of shocking and provocative statements from Medvedev, who was once seen as a Western-leaning reformer but has reinvented himself as an arch-hawk since Russia invaded Ukraine last year. In Japan, no one was immediately available for comment on the remarks at either the prime minister’s official residence or the foreign ministry outside normal working hours. Medvedev is a prominent ally of President Vladimir Putin who serves as deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council and of a body overseeing the defence industry. He was responding to a meeting on Friday between Kishida and U.S. President Joe Biden, after which the two leaders issued a joint statement saying: "We state unequivocally that any use of a nuclear weapon by Russia in Ukraine would be an act of hostility against humanity and unjustifiable in any way." Medvedev said the statement showed "paranoia" towards Russia and "betrayed the memory of hundreds of thousands of Japanese who were burned in the nuclear fire of Hiroshima and Nagasaki" - a reference to the atomic bombs that the United States dropped on Japan to force its surrender at the end of World War Two. Rather than demanding U.S. repentance for this, Kishida had shown he was "just a service attendant for the Americans". He said such shame could only be washed away by committing seppuku - a form of suicide by disembowelment, also known as hara-kiri - at a meeting of the Japanese cabinet after Kishida's return. Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Medvedev has warned repeatedly that Western meddling in the crisis could lead to nuclear war, and has referred to Ukrainians as "cockroaches" in language Kyiv says is openly genocidal. Putin has said that the risk of a nuclear war is rising but insisted Russia has not "gone mad" and that it sees its own nuclear arsenal as a purely defensive deterrent.
jergul rank	Sat Jan 14 18:20:36 2023 Just on Soledar. Roads run North-South just off Soledar. Ukraine can no longer shuffle reserves back and forth between Bakmut and the North easily. So either reserves have to double, or defenses rely on half the reserves they used to have access to. It lowers Bakmut tactical value. Russia can in theory roll up the valley to Sivetsk without taking Bakmut. Eccentially, a Ukrainian defensive line has been broken. Germans in wwii Italy would retreat to the next line at this point. Prolly too much political capital invested for Ukraine to do the same.
jergul rank	Sat Jan 14 18:21:28 2023 Essentially*
Sam Adams rank	Sat Jan 14 19:05:31 2023 http://pbs...XwAkq0Pe?format=jpg&name=large Russian terrorists blew up another large residential building full of kids.
Paramount rank	Sat Jan 14 19:10:23 2023 ”a Ukrainian defensive line has been broken” I don’t know. You may read too much Russian news/propaganda Jergul? If you read the real news, Western/British news, you would get a better understanding of what is going on. Putin fell down the stairs and shat himself and Ukraine is winning.
jergul rank	Sat Jan 14 19:13:53 2023 Sammy Hardly intentionally. They dont have the missiles for that. So either waylaid SAM (fuel+warhead+E(k)+ng in flats, or waylaid missile. The kids are mostly evacuated or in air raid shelters. Hence this being the conflict in human history with the lowest civilian to military death counts. Dont be a drama queen.
jergul rank	Sat Jan 14 19:14:59 2023 Para I know how to read a map :). Bakmut are in the same valley that runs N-S.
jergul rank	Sat Jan 14 19:15:35 2023 Bakmut, Solodar and Sivetsk are in the same valley running N-S.
Sam Adams rank	Sat Jan 14 19:53:26 2023 "Hence this being the conflict in human history with the lowest civilian to military death counts." This is an outright lie.
Forwyn rank	Sat Jan 14 21:09:58 2023 > Spend months shooting people for trying to leave war-torn areas > Tout civilian deaths in war-torn areas when a residential building that should have been abandoned gets caught in cross-fire lol
jergul rank	Sat Jan 14 21:39:36 2023 Sammy How many civilian deaths according to the UN? Lets see how many orders of magnitude you are off. Forwyn Nobody has tried to shoot people for leaving war-torn areas. Evacuations have been done very successfully by both sides.
Forwyn rank	Sat Jan 14 23:04:49 2023 Ukrainian paramilitaries have shot lots of civilians fleeing and called them "saboteurs"
Habebe rank	Sat Jan 14 23:17:46 2023 "This war will not end until Ukraine has like 100,000 soldiers to as collateral." The war ends as soon as the US decides to stop funding/supplying etc. The war machine. "Soldiers don't win wars, gold does" As well as Starlink satelite networks. And even then, we are really just seeing who can run out of shit first, the US has deep supplies. But even the US is inadequately prepared for future conflicts currently.
Dukhat rank	Sat Jan 14 23:30:35 2023 Foreskin again choosing to believe whatever random tweet confirms his priors Fucking imbecile
Paramount rank	Sun Jan 15 01:03:31 2023 US official says that Soledar and Bakhmut is of no strategic importance: http://twi...?s=46&t=DJ7xj9AoFaWaV8gjhGUTGQ
Forwyn rank	Sun Jan 15 01:48:08 2023 "Foreskin again choosing to believe whatever random tweet confirms his priors" And what the Ukrainian press confirms when they call them saboteurs lol
LazyCommunist rank	Sun Jan 15 09:40:51 2023 Welcome comrade Forwyn! On our side: -Habebe -Paramaount -Pillz -Forwyn Soon we will dominate this forum
LazyCommunist rank	Sun Jan 15 09:46:47 2023 Seb is this is true then GB will pay for this. Better move to Africa or South America ASAP http://www...che-helicopters-armed-28955516 Britain will send attack helicopters armed with deadly Hellfire missiles to Ukraine in a move hailed as a “game-changer”. The Apache choppers will bolster the country’s desperate fight against Russian invaders, now entering its 11th month. The new package of support, to include tanks, was confirmed yesterday by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. A senior defence source told the Sunday People that up to four Apaches will be sent – and they will follow 10 Challenger 2 main battle tanks. "Russia has thousands of tanks, so it will take more than four Apaches to have a strategic impact. But tactically, it is a major step.” We are sending the Apache AH64 E – the most modern version, which can take out multiple targets in seconds. Each Apache can be armed with up to 16 anti-tank Hellfires, 76 Hydra 70mm rockets and a 30mm chain gun. This means four Apaches could wipe out an entire regiment of 70 tanks within moments.
Paramount rank	Sun Jan 15 10:27:25 2023 Why don’t they send 450 Apaches instead? Then they could take out more than 7000 tanks in seconds and Ukraine would win this war within moments.
jergul rank	Sun Jan 15 11:19:37 2023 hababe Running out of shit first... About 100k Ukrainians (in government controlled areas) turned 18 during the year of conflict and 200k turned 60. Representing min and max age of conscription. Its demographics kind of suck. The post 1990 birthrates are very low.
jergul rank	Sun Jan 15 11:23:31 2023 For comparison, 770 000 Russsians turned 18 during the year of conflict. I am quoting males only.
Pillz rank	Sun Jan 15 21:09:31 2023 Apache story is fake news But they will be sending challengers. Considering the numbers they have themselves this amounts to literally nothing.
obaminated rank	Sun Jan 15 21:13:54 2023 Don't mind pillz everyone, he doesn't know what the word "literally" means.
jergul rank	Sun Jan 15 23:18:38 2023 Literally also means figuratively. Definition changed a few years ago. Forget which authority did it, but a US dictionary.
Pillz rank	Mon Jan 16 00:50:47 2023 Possible AFU evacuates Bakhmut. I doubt it but there are comments from AFU commanders that they should
jergul rank	Mon Jan 16 01:44:56 2023 Well, it has no pupose as a frontline anchor as the defensive line has been breached. Russia has cut off the only rail line to Bakmut incidentally. Bakmut lacking strategic importance did become true at last. It is at the end of a road to nowhere and its only importance is, well, Russia will have to deal with it eventually I suppose. Rail is the premier way of shipping supplies, equipment and troops in Ukraine. Trucks work too of course, but are way more logistically demanding.
jergul rank	Mon Jan 16 01:47:47 2023 Ukraine will prolly wait for a while to see if counterattacks can't drive Russia back to Soledar proper. Line integrity is at least theoretically intact if Russia is pushed back a couple km both north and south of Bakmut.
Paramount rank	Tue Jan 17 19:55:28 2023 Oleksy Arestovych, adviser to Ukrainian President Zelenskyi, resigns. This after a comment about the attack in Dnipro this weekend. Arestovych said that the impact on a residential building, which claimed 41 lives, was due to Ukraine's air defenses shooting down a Russian robot, which caused the house to be hit. - Russia does not shoot at residential buildings, he said. - - Remember when Zelenskyj insisted that Russia had attacked Poland when even Poland itself said that it was a Ukrainian rocket that attacked Poland and killed people.
LazyCommunist rank	Tue Jan 17 20:02:02 2023 Oh he feels so smart... will he feel the same tomorrow in Gulag?^^ http://twi..._en/status/1615080819164434432
Paramount rank	Wed Jan 18 10:46:50 2023 Ukraine says 16 killed in helicopter crash, including interior minister KYIV, Jan 18 (Reuters) - Sixteen people including Ukraine's interior minister and other senior ministry officials were killed on Wednesday when a helicopter crashed outside Kyiv in the town of Brovary, the national police chief said. http://www...-interior-minister-2023-01-18/
LazyCommunist rank	Wed Jan 18 15:54:47 2023 Pillz???? http://www...ne-200-more-armoured-vehicles/ Canada is donating another 200 armoured vehicles to Ukraine as Kyiv pleads with allies for more gear to help turn the course of the war against Russia. Defence Minister Anita Anand announced Wednesday during a visit to Kyiv that Ottawa will send 200 armoured personnel carriers (APCs) to Ukraine. They are Senator APCs made by Mississauga, Ont.-based Roshel which can carry eight passengers as well as the driver and a front-seat passenger. There is also room for a gunner. Weapons can be mounted on top.
Sam Adams rank	Wed Jan 18 16:45:46 2023 Pillz, through his tax dollars, is helping ukraine. Rofls
jergul rank	Wed Jan 18 17:00:38 2023 Those are not even battle taxis. At best patrol vehicles for secure areas or for safer transport though arty beat down zones. It is starting to look like Ukraine might be in a bit of trouble.
murder rank	Wed Jan 18 21:38:26 2023 Do the Canadians even use these? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qC9hr3j6x7o They look like they'd come in handy when your kids have a soccer match in the wrong side of town.
Pillz rank	Wed Jan 18 21:40:23 2023 Lol
jergul rank	Thu Jan 19 09:58:40 2023 Germany will allow exports of MBTs to Ukraine if and only if the US supplies Abrams to Ukraine. Adverse conditions in Ukraine provide credence to Germany not wanting Leopards to burn alone, but will do so in the company of burning Abrams. War is a racket. Market shares would be impacted. Me? those modernized T-55s look like good bang for buck. The T-90M has been doing ok. The T-72B3 (obr. 2016) has been doing ok. As has the "Terminator", though in limited numbers. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMPT_Terminator
jergul rank	Thu Jan 19 12:24:38 2023 Russia captured a larger drone with a starlink antenna. Russia is prolly hard at work trying to hack the network and order all its satellites to deorbite (they have that capability) :D.
Seb rank	Thu Jan 19 16:57:08 2023 jergul: I doubt that the commercial antenna would give you any insight on the control network for the satellites themselves. And in any case, they have tiny hall effect ion drives - they don't have the delta-v to rapidly deorbit, just assist the natural orbital decay. You would need to gain continuous control over them for quite a long time. Plus they probably don't need to capture a drone to get hold of a starlink antenna. Pretty sure Russia's espionage is up to the task of buying one and shipping it out of the US.
Seb rank	Thu Jan 19 16:59:43 2023 So I checked - it takes "several months" to de-orbit a starlink satellite at end of life using its motor. In the event the propulsion system fails then 1 - 5 years through normal decay.
jergul rank	Thu Jan 19 18:10:07 2023 Seb I was not suggesting it did. Merely that Ukraine is using satcoms to guide its penetration drones. It takes several months for the satellite to de-orbit after using its tiny engine and tiny fuel supply to slow it down* Fixed that for you.
LazyCommunist rank	Thu Jan 19 19:37:11 2023 I'm not religious myself, but if we can use religion to make more people fight against Ukraine and fight harder without fear of death, then I will shout Allahakbar, too, the end justifies the means! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wx_PKIEwMlE
murder rank	Thu Jan 19 21:03:02 2023 "Germany will allow exports of MBTs to Ukraine if and only if the US supplies Abrams to Ukraine." All this nonsense could have been avoided if we had acted to stop Russian forces to begin with. The same solution is still available but sadly still not on the table. Even going full chickenshit and only blowing up infrastructure inside Ukraine to cut off Russia re-supply and movement would end this in no time. But Joe Biden doesn't want to end this.
LazyCommunist rank	Fri Jan 20 01:33:40 2023 Paramount?????? http://def...-fighting-vehicles-to-ukraine/ Sweden announced it will send CV90 infantry fighting vehicles, Archer artillery systems and NLAW anti-tank missiles to Ukraine, Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said on Thursday. Speaking at a press conference, Prime Minister said his government had agreed on a three-part military support package for Ukraine, including “the first decision on starting deliveries of the artillery system Archer to Ukraine.” “Military support is decisive,” Kristersson said, as “it can change who retakes the initiative this winter” on the front in Ukraine. Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson announced on Thursday his country would provide Ukraine with 50 CV90 vehicles and 12 Archer systems to boost the country’s defenses against Russia’s invasion. Earlier, Sweden announced plans to send the domestically developed Archer artillery system to Ukraine, but the information about the CV90 fighting vehicles came as a surprise to everyone. The CV90 (Combat Vehicle 90) is a family of Swedish tracked combat vehicles designed by FMV, Hägglunds (BAE Systems Hägglunds) and Bofors during the mid-1980s. It is a modern, adaptable, and combat-proven vehicle with 1,300 vehicles in 15 variants sold to seven nations, including four NATO allies. The CV90 is currently in use in Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, and The Netherlands.
Pillz rank	Fri Jan 20 18:42:35 2023 Russia is undertaking a wide scale offensive along the line in Zaporizhzhia. The AFU transfered units from that section of the line to Bakhmut and Soledar last week. 6 settlements now under Russian control and the Russians are advancing on a city now. Also, Ukrainian losses continue to be horrendous. "Germany alarmed by Ukrainian battlefield losses in Bakhmut: Der Spiegel Germany’s foreign intelligence service is alarmed by losses the Ukrainian army is suffering in the eastern city of Bakhmut, the German magazine Der Spiegel reported. The Ukrainian army is losing a three-digit number of soldiers every day, the BND intelligence service told a group of Bundestag lawmakers at a secret meeting this week, Spiegel reported." http://www...o-decide-on-fresh-arms-pledges
Paramount rank	Fri Jan 20 19:48:56 2023 ”The Ukrainian army is losing a three-digit number of soldiers every day, the BND intelligence service told a group of Bundestag lawmakers at a secret meeting this week” How dare the BND say this? The BND is obviously Putin’s asset.
Sam Adams rank	Fri Jan 20 20:03:11 2023 I'm sure youll break through to kiev any day now right pillz?
Hrothgar rank	Fri Jan 20 20:38:05 2023 Pillz is like the American football fan who jumps out of his chair and throws his treats and screams in victory when his team is losing by 30 points but manages to get a first down. I, along with I think the rest of us, was very sure Russia would accomplish their goals, even when it became apparent it would be at great cost, eventually in the first 3-6 months. But here we are nearly a year later watching them fight over fairly small, completely annihilated towns in Easter/Southern Ukraine. Leaning heavily on mercenaries as their most competent fighting force left. Having lost a huge percentage of where they initially were able to drive their tanks to. No one, especially Russian leadership and citizens, would have called today's situation they are in right now in any way a victory a year ago. They are the proverbial boiled frog to be able to find today's situation as anything positive for Russia. Only by being manipulated by their gov propaganda media to change expectations drastically can some kind of victory be seen. At this point no matter what Russia achieves eventually on the full-scale Ukraine war and political arena, the military embracement and long-term economic distancing from large percentage of the developed world has already happened. This loss of global influence and economic potential is a much bigger loss to Russia than any gain from violently forcing a destroyed Ukraine into the Russian federation at the end of an artillery barrel.
Pillz rank	Fri Jan 20 22:35:10 2023 Retard^
jergul rank	Sat Jan 21 00:36:57 2023 Hrothgar One of the problems with ongoing sanctions since 2014 is that it convinced Putin that long term economic distancing was inevitable. The West lost a lot of leverage at that point.
williamthebastard rank	Sat Jan 21 01:32:00 2023 Its pretty impressive that all of Europe has basically ended any need for Russian gas in one year.
Paramount rank	Sat Jan 21 02:01:18 2023 Europe buy gas and coal at a higher price elsewhere. Europe built its prosperity on cheap and reliable supply of energy from Russia. It's over now. Instead, it is now countries like India and China who benefits and gets the advantage of cheap energy. It is their turn to propser now. Europe will lose competitiveness, companies will move, Europe will become poorer.
Sam Adams rank	Sat Jan 21 04:55:26 2023 "Europe built its prosperity on cheap and reliable supply of energy from Russia." France didnt
jergul rank	Sat Jan 21 14:22:28 2023 Starting to look like Ukraine may have to trade ground for time to refit units. Stryker and Bradleys are refitting gear, not resupply gear. Russia is probing on a pretty wide front and has been making incremental advances in a lot of areas.
Paramount rank	Sat Jan 21 16:40:58 2023 So, Germany was shocked at the losses in Bakhmut and the US now says that NATO should not fixate on defending Bakhmut at all cost. But instead refocus to prepare a ”major” counter-offensive against Russia. Does this mean that Bakhmut is now lost?
jergul rank	Sat Jan 21 16:44:52 2023 Bakmut is not really relevant beyond being a speedbump after Soledar fell. That broke the Bakmut-Soledar-Sivetsk line.
obaminated rank	Sat Jan 21 18:48:17 2023 Both us and uk Intel are saying Russia has had between 100k and 180k casualties and has lost around 2k tanks since the war started. China is correct when they speculate that Russia is going to come out of this war, victory or not, a shell of what it was before the invasion.
Paramount rank	Sat Jan 21 19:49:36 2023 ”Russia has had between 100k and 180k casualties” Considering that so far it has been mostly the Wagner Group, Chechens and East Ukrainians of Russian heritage that has done the fightings, 100-180k dead Russians is bullshit. It is not correct. The ratio is 1:8. 8 Ukrainians for every Russian. ”us and uk Intel” Lol. They can not be trusted. They have also said (a number of times now) that Russia has run out of ammo and missiles. You should stop trusting any info coming from US/UK sources.
Sam Adams rank	Sat Jan 21 20:31:09 2023 "8 Ukrainians for every Russian." Rofl.
obaminated rank	Sat Jan 21 21:15:16 2023 Casualty doesn't solely mean death.
Pillz rank	Sat Jan 21 21:48:39 2023 Russia still gains like 5 million citizens with this war... I don't know wtf world you live in mexitard
Pillz rank	Sat Jan 21 21:55:27 2023 "The increasing pace and depth of conscription intakes (Literally old men and cripples now) combined with the collapsing situation on the front lends credence to all the reports since December of just how bad casualty rates have become for the AFU. This shouldn’t be a surprise though for those who have being keeping a keen eye on the situation. It was recently reported in the Wall Street Journal that the AFU now fires just 40,000 shells a month. This is a stunning admission because the rate was previously 5,000 shells a day, or 150,000 a month; they changed the metric to attempt to hide this fact. The RuF meanwhile has stayed consistent at around 20,000 shells a day since late Summer. This means the Russian firepower advantage has increased from 3.2:1 to an almost 19:1 rate. Add in the mobilization resolving manpower difficulties, and it’s clear why Russian successes have been developing in quick succession lately." Note that US aid shipments of artillery shells has decreased month to month since August. And the contract for a manufacturer for more shells put out late in the summer remains open.
obaminated rank	Sat Jan 21 23:17:10 2023 It takes a special kind of stupid to think Russia is gaining 5 million active, healthy and loyal citizens if they somehow win this war. This is real life buddy, not some war strat game. Russia gains a completely obliterated chunk of Ukraine and has 5 million mouths to feed, when they are already having a hard enough time supplying their own soldiers. Fucking stupid guy.
jergul rank	Sat Jan 21 23:39:28 2023 Obam 2 million of the 5 or so now live in Russia proper. Russia is sort of like when the West opened in the US. Land does not matter terribly much. People are the limiting factor. Another metric is 700k Russian males turning 18 this year compared to 125k Ukrainian males in Ukraine controlled territory (250k turning 60 and too old for conscription) As mentioned before. The problem here is anything you can say is bad for Russia is worse for Ukraine.
Pillz rank	Sun Jan 22 02:01:38 2023 You have to be a special kind of retarded to ignore all the information that paints Ukraine as having lost, and having no way to win. A whole other kind of retarded to believe that Eastern Ukraine will not be rebuilt. Another level of retarded entirely to think Russian soldiers are somehow starving in trenches. And then, to top it all off, mexitard ignores the mineral resources that Russia has annexed...and all the associated economic benefits. At every single turn, you fail to comprehend, grasp, or deduce a single thing correctly. If this was like putting shapes through holes, mexitard would be trying to force his dick through the triangle.
jergul rank	Sun Jan 22 02:47:41 2023 Pillz Ukraine could secure a glorious tie. Get belarus involved along with Poland for a nice nuclear happy ending within months.
obaminated rank	Sun Jan 22 03:55:09 2023 Who is gonna pay to rebuild eastern Ukraine ?
jergul rank	Sun Jan 22 12:15:53 2023 Obam What part? The part held by Russia, or by Ukraine? You might say Russia will be paying for it in either case, but Russia "paying" would amount to the EU reissuing bonds to replace the bonds it has frozen that Russia holds. So, the EU in the case of Ukraine, Russia in the case of territory it holds. What we are actually seeing though is the greatest democrafic shift since 1945-46. Lots of what is currently rubble will be cleared, but never rebuilt. Nature will expand, memorial parks in urban areas created. Ukraine) will be lucky to emerge from this with a birth rate above 1 and losing less than 25% of its population to migration.
Pillz rank	Tue Jan 24 01:20:07 2023 On the topic of tanks, the last time Russia reports destroying a Ukrainian tank is January 17th. One tank.
Pillz rank	Tue Jan 24 01:24:39 2023 Empty Bins in a Wartime Environment: The Challenge to the U.S. Defense Industrial Base Report by Seth G. Jones Published January 23, 2023 "According to the results of a series of CSIS war games, the United States would likely run out of some munitions—such as long-range, precision-guided munitions—in less than one week in a Taiwan Strait conflict. The war in Ukraine has also exposed serious deficiencies in the U.S. defense industrial base and serves as a stark reminder that a protracted conflict is likely to be an industrial war that requires a defense industry able to manufacture enough munitions, weapons systems, and matériel to replace depleted stockpiles." http://www...nge-us-defense-industrial-base
jergul rank	Tue Jan 24 12:14:07 2023 Wagner may be getting a steady influx of contract soldiers transferring over as their military contracts expire. Anectdotal evidence suggests quite a bit of uptalking in regular Russian units.
Pillz rank	Tue Jan 24 22:55:08 2023 Bakhmut is now cut off by Russian artillery
murder rank	Wed Jan 25 00:09:49 2023 I can get behind this ... http://twitter.com/CryHavoc0711/status/1617993129986252800
Pillz rank	Wed Jan 25 01:20:00 2023 Yes, will look much less serious to your public when they're destroyed
murder rank	Wed Jan 25 03:07:03 2023 More likely abandoned stuck in the mud. But no, I just want them wobbling around like this every time they fire the gun. http://3.b...s1600/CE_googlyeyes_middle.gif
Pillz rank	Wed Jan 25 03:54:17 2023 As long as you recognize Abrams are going to be wasted in Ukraine its fine Germany announced they will send a whole 10 Leopard 2A6's to Ukraine. And by all accounts the US army has a serious 155mm shell shortage and no clear path forwards for dealing with it.
Sam Adams rank	Wed Jan 25 05:45:02 2023 'And by all accounts the US army has a serious 155mm shell shortage' By all accounts pillz means 1 random russian propagandist on twitter.
jergul rank	Wed Jan 25 08:31:10 2023 Sammy The US has a plan to increase shell production from 15k month to 90k month in two years time. 4 contractors are involved making a shell. 1 makes the casings 1 mixes the explosives 1 fills the shells 1 makes the propellant charge The reason production can increase that much is because 155 mm shells are partially made by factory equipment that made shells supporting the Normandy invasion. The US figures there might be some wiggleroom for modernization :D. Source: NYT.
jergul rank	Wed Jan 25 08:32:27 2023 The four steps are done in 4 different States of course.
jergul rank	Wed Jan 25 09:39:17 2023 http://archive.is/DT2zW The production of artillery ammunition in the United States is a complicated process that primarily takes place in four government-owned facilities run by private defense contractors. The empty steel bodies are forged in factories in Pennsylvania run by General Dynamics, the explosives for those shells are mixed together by BAE Systems workers in Tennessee and then poured into the shells at a plant run by American Ordnance in rural Iowa, while the propellant charges to shoot them out of howitzer barrels are made by BAE in southwest Virginia. The fuzes screwed into the nose of these shells, which are required to make the projectiles explode, are produced by contractors in other locations.
Pillz rank	Wed Jan 25 15:48:42 2023 Sam won't listen to his on DoD
jergul rank	Wed Jan 25 16:53:13 2023 I dunno what is going on anymore. So lets relax with jergulmath If 80% of casualties are from arty and Russia outguns ukraine 3:1, then inferred casualty ratio is 2.6 Ukrainians per Russian casualty. All other things being equal.
LazyCommunist rank	Wed Jan 25 17:09:41 2023 I don't think that many Russians die in the SMO, because we have so many foreigners who want to fight for Russia: http://edi...-buried-zambia-intl/index.html The Zambian student who died in battle in Ukraine was buried Wednesday in a private ceremony in his home country, a family spokesman told CNN. Lemekani Nathan Nyirenda died on the frontlines of the Ukraine war while fighting for Russian mercenary group Wagner in September last year. Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner mercenary group admitted to recruiting Nyirenda from a Russian jail, saying he chose to fight to “repay (Africa’s) debts” to Russia and “died a hero.”
Pillz rank	Wed Jan 25 19:50:16 2023 Russian telegram estimates now put Russian arty advantage at 19:1 http://t.me/intelslava/43603
LazyCommunist rank	Wed Jan 25 20:07:26 2023 Ty Pillz, now I can give them feedback that some westerners believe them.
Paramount rank	Wed Jan 25 22:41:26 2023 German foreign minister (?) says they are fighting a war against Russia. Has Germany declared war on Russia now? http://twi...?s=46&t=MWf0h6WlSDbDWDEeh4vNiQ
Paramount rank	Wed Jan 25 23:29:43 2023 Has Ukraine started to recruit ”the last Ukrainians” now? http://twi...?s=46&t=t5pVUKcdci72j46Y0PU1fQ
jergul rank	Thu Jan 26 11:13:33 2023 Para Well, combat density is pretty high. Ukraine has already put in about half the soldier days the US did in its deployments overseas 2001-2015 (Russian numbers are far lower. Perhaps 15% of soldier days). http://www...oyments-since-911-infographic/ Ukraine will never run out of soldiers. Children are born every day. But is probably is at peak enlistment. With something in the region of 50k new male 18 year old conscripts each year and perhaps 75k 60 year old males leaving service (50% of 18 year olds fit for service. 25% of 69 year olds conscripted. So jergulnumbers. I don't know what it actually is). Those are without irretrivable losses that occur in combat zones. Would I dare guess? Well yes! Russia and DPR/LUG/VAGNER 35k killed and 65k lost for other reasons. So 100k irretrivable losses. Or a range from 75-125k to cover my ass. Ukraine? 2-3 times that (based on Russia arty and airpower advantages). 150-500k irretrivable losses. But that number includes foreign volunteers. That is the best I can do with what I currently know, but note the lower end is 3 times the number of 18 year old males joining up per year. Time is not on Ukraines side unless Russia gets bored.
Paramount rank	Thu Jan 26 12:27:26 2023 Zelensjyj is now asking for robots and figher jets. When he gets that he will be asking for an aircraft carrier and submarines.
Pillz rank	Thu Jan 26 16:28:02 2023 Germans, Dutch, Americans and Canadians all will send tanks. Were looking at about 50 total tanks so far. In 2-3 months. Lol
Pillz rank	Thu Jan 26 16:42:11 2023 Some things I've noticed from Russian MoD reports on daily actions: - Ukraine is relying very heavily on technicals. This began in September but seems to just be getting worse. Very bad sign, as pickups do not beat IFVs. - Ukrainian tanks are nowhere to be seen - Russian counter battery warfare is pretty intensive. Ukraine is relying much more heavily on soviet hardware that is hopeless out ranged. European and American systems seem to have largely disappeared I guess. Still daily reports of some being destroyed but you'd expect less short range arty use if they had western systems readily available. - Very few strikes on Ukrainian SAMs but multiple daily reports of counter battery radars being hit. - AFU losses outside of active urban environments is still in the low hundreds per days. Ukrainians say Bakhmut is suffering losses in the triple digits as well. Who knows the details along the line in Zaporizhzhia now etc We can say 500 casualties daily as a conservative estimate for Ukraine, with peaks of around 1000.
Sam Adams rank	Thu Jan 26 16:56:40 2023 Pillz Member Wed Jan 25 11:50:16 Russian telegram estimates Pillz Member Thu Jan 26 08:42:11 Some things I've noticed from Russian MoD Lol. Nuff said
jergul rank	Thu Jan 26 18:32:05 2023 Pillz Russian Aerospace and Air Defence Troops have stricter censorship guidelines.
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