Utopia Talk / Politics / Israeli strike on Iran: Pick the date

murder Member	Wed Oct 16 06:34:34 Are they even going to retaliate before the US election? Netanyahu wants Trump to win, so I think he strikes days before the election to put Kamala in a bind. I'm going to say Saturday night Oct 26th.
Rugian Member	Wed Oct 16 06:47:58 (CNN) The Biden administration sent a letter to the Israeli government demanding it act to improve the humanitarian situation in Gaza within the next 30 days or risk violating US laws governing foreign military assistance, suggesting US military aid could be in jeopardy. The Sunday letter, jointly written by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, is addressed to Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant and Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer. It marks a significant new step by the US to try to compel Israel to facilitate the delivery of humanitarian aid into Gaza. http://www...an-situation-letter/index.html Just more pro-Islamic culkoldry from our "president" in order to sabotage Israel's war efforts. Nice Anyway, October 23.
murder Member	Wed Oct 16 06:48:59 Any significance to that date, or just a gut feeling?
Rugian Member	Wed Oct 16 07:28:18 Just a guess. We're starting to see detailed strike proposals, so figure it's going to happen sooner rather than later.
jergul large member	Wed Oct 16 08:03:13 Its going to be completely devastating. We all saw how Russia knocked Ukraine out of that war in that highly hyped 3 day missile and bomb attack. Expect the same type of regime changing, peace seeking outcome that history shows short aerial incursions force. /s.
jergul large member	Wed Oct 16 08:04:41 No worries though. I can always trust you lads to hype the crap out of Israel's very limited intermediate range force projection capabilities.
Paramount Member	Wed Oct 16 08:49:29 I think the plan is to wait until after the election because he is going to get a better deal with Trump. Trump is going to join in on the attacks himself and destroy all of Iran's energy facilities and military assets, because "Iran was trying to kill Trump".
murder Member	Wed Oct 16 11:43:18 "Its going to be completely devastating. We all saw how Russia knocked Ukraine out of that war in that highly hyped 3 day missile and bomb attack. Expect the same type of regime changing, peace seeking outcome that history shows short aerial incursions force. /s." Wrong thread or ...?
Rugian Member	Wed Oct 16 11:58:05 Jergul's going through the five stages of grief over the Islamic Republic's inevitable wrecking. That was him in the anger stage. Bargaining should be coming up pretty soon here.
jergul large member	Wed Oct 16 12:26:30 Murder Correct thread. Countries are quite robust and Iran is twice (or more. Depends on how you measure) Ukraine's size. Israel cannot do anything meaningful in the grand scheme of things. At least not without using nukes. Ruggy Lulz. Yes. Wrecked. That is what it going to happen. Israel definitely can do that from 1000 miles away. /s.
kargen Member	Wed Oct 16 12:35:17 If it is going to include drones and/or aircraft then I'm guessing November first. That is when we have the next new moon. If not on the first then somewhere near there. I'm still thinking industrial accident at the nuclear facilities rather than missiles.
jergul large member	Wed Oct 16 13:00:49 The only interesting thing is really if Israel gauges its showmanship correctly. Too little is impossble given how we will hype it not matter what it is. Too much is anything that trigger a new round of tits for tats. On topic question. If Israel wants to give it a serious go, then it will either trigger a tit-for-tat on purpose before the election. But that lets Iran be kingmaker again. Elect trump by responding before the election, or waiting until after the election to give Harris a boost. Or...wait until after the election and hope Trump with follow up Israel after it does something seriously escalatory.
jergul large member	Wed Oct 16 13:02:03 (incredibly escalatory is anything that triggers an Iranian nuclear test).
Sam Adams Member	Wed Oct 16 13:29:05 Nov 1
murder Member	Wed Oct 16 13:43:50 "Correct thread. Countries are quite robust and Iran is twice (or more. Depends on how you measure) Ukraine's size. Israel cannot do anything meaningful in the grand scheme of things. At least not without using nukes." We're predicting dates, not effectiveness. We already know that it's going to be toothless response. But Iran's size is meaningless. Take out their oil production, attack their ports, and destroy their missile and drone production, and Iran is in trouble.
Sam Adams Member	Wed Oct 16 15:48:51 We are so big... we can't fail... attack strait ahead right into their spears. Jergul, advisor to xerxes, thermopylae pass, 480 BC.
jergul large member	Wed Oct 16 16:10:34 Yah, that is pretty much how I expect the spin doctoring to go. Israel will win a battle of Marathon no matter what it does.
Rugian Member	Wed Oct 16 17:25:50 jergul Let's be fair though. Israel could win an actual Battle of Marathon and you'd still be on here claiming that Iran was the victor.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Thu Oct 17 01:31:10 Israel has been conducting operationa inside Iran for years and the Islamic republic has just not said anything. They would have lies about Haniyeh if they could. The reason for this is that they don’t have any effective response, especially not after both Hamas and Hezbollah have been rekt. Expectation already high, hearts of the faithful heavy. The first response, was effective in sensibg a messge to those that needed to know, but publicly it was shrugged. The up coming attack will not be ambigious. Either the Islamic republic responds, then the saw they are sitting on, moves forward. Or, they don’t respond and the saw moves backwards. Either way the saw is going further up their anus. Israel can then focus on destroying Hamas and Hezbollah. Which, if you go back, I said you only need to destroy those two, to hasten the demise of the Islamic republic. Like clock work, everything I expected has unfolded. The Islamic republic supporters are in a highly emotional state, some of them have realized they are ao far behind, others are a bit suicidal and think they should drag the USA into the war, some of them are content with the recent missile attack. Destroy Hamas and Hezbollah and it is gg. Again I can cite you their own analysts and translate the desperation, ranging from suicide attacks, to hijacking and trying to shoot down passenger planes. And those the least deluded, because they have realized how far back they are in capabilities and that to cite one of them “either Hezbollah wins, or it is over”. Not survives, wins.
murder Member	Thu Oct 17 05:52:19 I'm afraid that you're bound to be disappointed.
jergul large member	Thu Oct 17 06:42:11 Ruggy Lets be fair and note that you are projecting what I said. Mark my words, not matter what happens, you will claim it a huge game changer. Like nimi, who thinks something has somehow changed with Israeli operations in Lebanon and Gaza. Iran is on the cusp of something see. Or is it only nimi that sees? Fair enough that Israel is punching way above its weight. But its weight without uppunching is about that of Sweden. You tax dollars at work! They make a difference!
obaminated Member	Thu Oct 17 12:54:08 Probably early next week. Netanyahu wants to get trump in office and will do what he can but he can't be obvious about it. Meaning he won't do a strike on Iran days before the election, it'd be too obvious. He does a strike somewhere between 20-25 and it's far enough away from the election for him to have plausible deniability about alterior motives but close enough to force Harris and trump to take and focus on the israeli/Islamic terrorism war which will be on voters minds on election day. It won't matter. I'm pretty certain trump is going to be win in a landslide. The whole polling system which claims the race is nearly tied, with trump slightly ahead, is flawed because it fails to take into account how many people are going to vote trump but won't say it publicly because the liberal establishment has successfully brainwashed its drones into turning any trump supporter into a facist/racist/sexist pariah. I know plenty of people at the agency I work at who are 100% voting trump for a myriad of reasons but none of us say it around the office or after hours because it isn't worth the headache and potential HR bullshit blowback we would get from the obligatory Karen's who "don't feel comfortable working with someone who thinks that way". Which has happened to a colleague.
murder Member	Thu Oct 17 18:09:57 "I know plenty of people at the agency I work at who are 100% voting trump for a myriad of reasons ..." Racism and misogyny aren't a myriad of reasons. It's just two.
obaminated Member	Thu Oct 17 18:19:19 Believe it or not, no one I know is voting for trump for racial or misogynist reasons. I know it's hard for you to comprehend people voting for someone you disagree with for reasonable and philosophical reasons.
kargen Member	Thu Oct 17 20:01:12 Israel was also punching up in 1967 and three countries had to beg for their land back.
murder Member	Thu Oct 17 22:31:05 "Believe it or not, no one I know is voting for trump for racial or misogynist reasons." Right. Just for reasons that would get them reported to HR. ;o)
murder Member	Thu Oct 17 22:31:48 "Israel was also punching up in 1967 and three countries had to beg for their land back." They should have kept the territory.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Mon Oct 21 01:24:55 Israel destroyed 4 countries militaries *bordering* it, when those regimes had the backing and support of their people to wage war to destroy Israel. The Islamic republic does not have the backing of it’s people, at best 15%. There are so many variables against the Islamic republic, summarized in how slow they have been to react, how poorly the alliance is coordinated. The Islamic republic never wanted or imagined a direct confrontation with Israel, so there are no contingencies, no plans and no coordination to that effect. Funny enough the decision by Trump to take out Suleimani, and the tepid response is what emboldened Israel to hit more and more IRGC commanders. The issue was raised back then as dangerous, but given the lack of openness about failure, it was not taken seriously. Now every halfwit regime supporter os pointing that exact moment out as when it became evident the Islamic repiblic was “resonable” and for whatever reason, not willing to act on the 45 years of Jihadi slogans. This past year, that mentality has evolved to now tell people to shut up with the slogans, you are raising expectations.
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