Utopia Talk / Politics / polling bias

Sam Adams Member	Wed Nov 06 11:13:23 YET AGAIN the vast majority of pre-election polls came in with trump a couple percent too low. In reality about 2-3% more people were intending to vote trump. This matches the prior 2 elections ecactly. So... why? Intentional lies from a dem establishment? Obvious biases that dem establishment intentionally ignores like age gaps in voter turnout(an even split amongst population age distributions is NOT the way to get an accurate election poll)? Unobvious biases that none of us have a good feel for?
tumbleweed the wanderer	Wed Nov 06 12:01:45 weird nobody presumes mass voter fraud for Trump when -exactly- as easy for his side to do it (& he encourages it) 'dem bias' isn't it given they don't have a lock on doing polls my guess is polling methods just aren't as effective at reaching people anymore plus more turnout by unlikely voters (due to an idiot buffoon clown being in the news regularly, or turning people into cultists on the reverse side) and there's people embarrassed to admit voting for Trump (as they should be)
Rugian Member	Wed Nov 06 12:09:52 Yeah, the media and Democrats calling potential Trump voters literal fascists is probably going to result in less self-reporting of their true political beliefs. Yet Democrats thought that the in-the-closet voting cohort was wives who were afraid of publicly disagreeing with their MAGA husbands. They literally operate in a clown world.
Cherub Cow Member	Wed Nov 06 12:10:08 Lol Voter fraud is suddenly real and very possible, guise XD Tumblefag, umm, no court has found evidence of fraud in the 2024 election ;D
Sam Adams Member	Wed Nov 06 12:20:14 "weird nobody presumes mass voter fraud for Trump" In 99% of counties in the entire country? By the same approxinate fraction? No. Thats an honest population survey to a probability level that is extremely high.
jergul large member	Wed Nov 06 14:53:39 Sammy I think there is a YOLO factor. Some segment of Trump voters think it funny to misrepresent how they are voting to pollsters.
jergul large member	Wed Nov 06 14:55:35 TW Democrats trust institutions more than GOP voters do. But dont worry, 4 years of Government reform might change that perception considerably.
Forwyn Member	Wed Nov 06 15:00:59 "weird nobody presumes mass voter fraud for Trump when -exactly- as easy for his side to do it (& he encourages it)" False The map in the link below overwhelmingly correlates with another map making the rounds today. http://ballotpedia.org/Voter_identification_laws_by_state
earthpig GTFO HOer	Wed Nov 06 16:49:59 "Intentional lies from a dem establishment?" What would the motivation be? Making the dem look like more of a sure thing than they are would likely encourage potential dem voters to stay home and not bother voting. I wouldn't attribute to malice/conspiracy what could just as easily be attributed to incompetence. I'll make up a conjecture. Perhaps dem potential voters are more likely to talk big, then not show up on voting day, compared to republican potential voters. Or perhaps potential republican voters are more likely to keep their voting intentions private (distrust in the entity calling them for the poll, out of the blue and unsolicited, with "R U VOTING 4 TRUMP?!"). Either one of these, or both, could produce what you observe SA. And perhaps this (either or both) is a known phenomenon, but in a stubborn insistence on being 'fair' and 'nonpartisan,' pollsters do not build it into their model.
earthpig GTFO HOer	Wed Nov 06 16:50:49 A pollster or statistician would also hold a dim view to suggesting there be a person-specific "trump factor" included in the statistical analysis.
Sam Adams Member	Wed Nov 06 16:54:25 Good points. The interesting thing is this seems to be a trump thing? I seem to remember polls were pretty accurate pre-trump?
jergul large member	Wed Nov 06 16:55:12 I find the Yolo factor quite a convincing argument. Why would a typical Maga voter not jerk the chain of a typical college educated and presumed democrat pollster?
jergul large member	Wed Nov 06 16:56:54 It overlaps with my vote is my own business theory.
Rugian Member	Wed Nov 06 17:08:37 earthpig GTFO HOer Wed Nov 06 16:50:49 "A pollster or statistician would also hold a dim view to suggesting there be a person-specific "trump factor" included in the statistical analysis." Okay Hari Seldon. I look forward to the pollsters telling us in 2028 that the Fifth Crisis will end with the Independent Traders victorious and societal reforms enacted.
earthpig GTFO HOer	Wed Nov 06 17:10:35 Rugian solved it, Trump is The Mule.
jergul large member	Wed Nov 06 17:15:48 Based Ruggy. Foundation almost. I forget sometimes that *some of you* read.
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