Utopia Talk / Politics / NATO

williamthebastard rank	Sun Dec 08 21:09:20 2024 Trump reiterates the US will leave Nato. Aside from all intelligence allies having censored sensitive stuff since a year back due to the risk of Russia getting to once again own the USA via Trump, this might be a good thing. We cant go on hoping for normalcy for four years and insanity for the next four years each time the US has an election any longer anyway. Its untenable. If NATO decides to reorganize and rid itself of the US and a few more unsavoury dirt members like Hungary, the US will be alone against China, the West i.e. Nato, and Russia, with which it will have a fake friendship, wholly dependent on for how long and how much each country's leader can con stuff out of each other. Which Western countries will allow themselves to be bullied by Trump into leaving Nato? The UK lapdog will have to make one of its most decisive decisions ever, and given the govt right now will choose Nato. A couple of western countries leaning toward fascism might be swayed, the biggest probably being Italy which is balancing on the precipice of full-on US fascism at the moment. Anyone else?
williamthebastard rank	Sun Dec 08 21:13:32 2024 Of course, the USm and should Italy should pick the US in muutal respect of each others fascism, there are going to be a number of generals etc. in both those countries that will choose to work with Nato in utter horror of their countries leaving, so chaos at the top military and intelligence levels in those countries.
murder rank	Sun Dec 08 22:27:02 2024 The UK is not leaving NATO. NATO may partly disintegrate, but I think most countries will want to remain members ... plus Ukraine wanting to join if they survive the war. A better question is if NATO will want to keep everyone. Some members are shaky to begin with, and some really aren't defendable and could drag what is left of NATO into disaster. But Donald Trump is usually full of shit, so I really wouldn't worry about it.
Seb rank	Mon Dec 09 13:29:30 2024 If the US leaves NATO the first thing it's going to get is a massive rent bill for all is bases in Europe.
Paramount rank	Mon Dec 09 14:33:02 2024 Not if they stop renting them :)
jergul rank	Mon Dec 09 14:34:51 2024 It might make Ukraine joining Nato less of a percieved existential condition for Russia.
Nimatzo rank	Mon Dec 09 15:12:44 2024 I'm gonna make a bold prediction: The USA will not leave NATO.
Nimatzo rank	Mon Dec 09 15:12:44 2024 I'm gonna make a bold prediction: The USA will not leave NATO.
jergul rank	Mon Dec 09 15:14:03 2024 In the next four years. Let me add that qualifier for you.
murder rank	Mon Dec 09 19:09:39 2024 I'm going to make a bold prediction: Nimatzo's prediction will prove accurate. Like I said, Trump is full of shit 90% of the time.
Paramount rank	Mon Dec 09 19:38:32 2024 Europe could not pay anything at all for Nato and the US would not quit Nato anyways. In fact, Europe should demand that the US pay us to be members of Nato. The US would do it and not leave Nato.
Sam Adams rank	Mon Dec 09 19:40:57 2024 It is funny to make seb/wtb think they might actually have to defend themselves though.
obaminated rank	Mon Dec 09 19:46:29 2024 As trump said in his first term, if the other members of nato don't live up to their financial responsibilities than there is no benefit for the united states to stay there as their responsible and powerful bodyguard. This freaks Europeans out because they realize their way of life would need to dramatically change if they had to prepare themselves for a war against Russian without the united states carrying them.
Nimatzo rank	Mon Dec 09 19:56:55 2024 Obaminated There is no conceivable future where that is happening. Meaning the USA is at very least not selling weapons or donate them rather then pay for their destruction or refill of rocket fuel or whatever it is that you need to do and pay to get rid of them and have them tested out on the battle field. Very important to not make retarded overplay of your hand at the poker table.
williamthebastard rank	Mon Dec 09 21:03:57 2024 It really makes no difference if Trump officially leaves NATO. The world knows his commitment, even if he doesnt offically leave, to NATO statues and agreements is non-existent and thus worthless. The world also knows it is not possible to share sentítive NATO intelligence with someone whose biggest dream is to be flattered by Putin.
williamthebastard rank	Mon Dec 09 21:04:20 2024 *statutes
williamthebastard rank	Mon Dec 09 21:08:17 2024 But we in the West really need for him to leave officially, so that we can start cleaning house officially and in earnest. NATO needs to get rid of the USA, Hungary, etc once and for all.
Seb rank	Mon Dec 09 21:24:43 2024 Nim: I'll make a bold prediction. It doesn't matter if the US formally leaves NATO or not, European nations are already planning on the basis it effectively has.
williamthebastard rank	Mon Dec 09 21:28:53 2024 Indeed. Its unthinkable that the Western countries will share sensitive intelligence with the US an have been secretly planning other forums for sharing such intel with each other without the US for some time.
murder rank	Mon Dec 09 21:30:42 2024 It does matter. As long as we're in it we can veto anything and everything. We need to be kicked out, or the rest of you have to duplicate it.
williamthebastard rank	Mon Dec 09 21:32:53 2024 ...while perhaps secretly maintaining some restricted communications with some US generals and top intel officers who see Trump as a traitor. This will also likely make Western countries less interested in buying US weapons and a whole other load of consequences
williamthebastard rank	Mon Dec 09 21:40:47 2024 This could be a major power play for countries like France to rule NATO, and if the UK plays its cards right could put them back in a seat of global power too
williamthebastard rank	Mon Dec 09 21:43:46 2024 Italy, Spain, Germany etc probably already have plans to go nuclear in the Trump era. A European Nato could become massively powerful.
Paramount rank	Mon Dec 09 21:54:03 2024 ”NATO needs to get rid of the USA, Hungary, etc once and for all.” Europe just needs to free itself from the grip of the US mafia empire, once and for all. If we do that Nato is no more and we are free to create our own defensive alliance, if we wish, and free to look after our own interests, instead of the interests of the US mafia.
williamthebastard rank	Mon Dec 09 21:56:35 2024 NATO wont disappear. It might change names and get rid of some unsavoury members, but its too organized, intertwined and established now for the less sick countries to just abandon it.
williamthebastard rank	Mon Dec 09 21:57:23 2024 All the major western countries, minus the USA, will continue, whether under another name or not
williamthebastard rank	Mon Dec 09 21:59:56 2024 Trumps USA and the current world situation will probably encourage countries from Canada to Portugal to want to work together even more
Seb rank	Mon Dec 09 22:43:21 2024 murder: It won't matter because parallel structures will be built to circumvent such vetos.
Sam Adams rank	Mon Dec 09 22:44:17 2024 "and if the UK plays its cards right could put them back in a seat of global power too" HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
williamthebastard rank	Mon Dec 09 22:59:32 2024 Murder, its just not possible that the West will allow Putin via Trump to determine their unified policies.
murder rank	Tue Dec 10 00:06:17 2024 Trump is probably not the biggest issue for Europe. As you know, there are European countries that seem to miss the Warsaw Pact. Having them in the alliance means that the alliance is crippled and compromised. Others want to pretend that war will never come again. They are dead weight.
murder rank	Tue Dec 10 00:07:14 2024 "It won't matter because parallel structures will be built to circumvent such vetos." At some point it needs to happen or it's never going to happen.
jergul rank	Tue Dec 10 02:55:10 2024 Seb and murder Article 5 triggers individual and collective rights to self-defence. Anybody can make the call. The US did in 2001. Then the rest determine individually or collectively if they think article 5 applies. There is no US veto.
jergul rank	Tue Dec 10 03:01:31 2024 Otherwise, anyone could veto article 5 and the alliance would have no teeth. http://www.nato.int/cps/cy/natohq/topics_49763.htm
williamthebastard rank	Tue Dec 10 04:15:44 2024 It would make things easier if Trump pulled out, so lets hope he officially pulls out. That'll lay the blame all at his feet in the history books and nobody will have to pretend to feed the US with lame "secret" info, like an undercover cop pretending to be a mafia guy.
williamthebastard rank	Tue Dec 10 04:21:25 2024 Although, it would be interesting to feed him fake info, a la an undecover cop, to see in which Putin speech it resurfaces
Seb rank	Tue Dec 10 14:40:52 2024 Jergul: I wasn't suggesting they could veto article 5. They can veto other decisions and they can defacto veto use of US controlled facilities and capabilities within NATO.
jergul rank	Tue Dec 10 15:11:13 2024 Seb Yah, I kind of figured you knew that. Not everyone does, so still a PSA on my part. An yes, that is the problem. Nato is the only coordinating organization Europe has. And it cannot function if the US says no.
murder rank	Tue Dec 10 16:46:30 2024 "I wasn't suggesting they could veto article 5." Article 5 doesn't mean anything anyway. A nation under attack asks for help, and everyone gets to decide if they will help and to what extent ... same as if no treaty existed. NATO isn't really about article 5, it's about setting the framework under which these nations can interoperate so they can more or less (more less than more) act as one force. Any monkey wrench can jam the gears, not just the US.
williamthebastard rank	Wed Dec 11 01:22:53 2024 Hungary is basically a Trump red state already, just needs to be ratified http://bri...nYU_aem_9hNfWyu0zYf2VjnCAPMxLg
Seb rank	Fri Dec 13 10:59:54 2024 Jergul: Not going to start a new thread, but re FABs and strike weapons: http://bsky.app/profile/kevinrothrock.me/post/3ld5y3uo7ks2g You were quite adamant, as I recall, that pushing air bases out by holding them at risk wouldn't help. Seems to have halved Russian FAB use (longer journey lower sortie rates).
jergul rank	Fri Dec 13 11:09:59 2024 Correlation is not causation. Winter weather conditions give adverse observation environments. It causes two things 1. Less videos (which is actually what is measured here) A video of cloud cover even if a trust me bro this is a "Fab" would not be counted. 2. Fewer identified targets and more time analysing targets. A 300 km pushback adds less than half an hour flight time round trip at cruising speed for the Su-34. It does not tweak the sortie number at all. Sorties are constrained by turn around time and pilot rest requirements. In my opinion. Though there may be some short term rebasing disruptions that also play a role.
jergul rank	Fri Dec 13 11:14:08 2024 There can be other factors at play too. Bouncing rubble becomes pointless on static parts of the frontline, while in dynamic areas, high value strongpoints have not yet been identified.
jergul rank	Fri Dec 13 11:18:36 2024 Finally, there is opsec. It could be that Russia (mainly) or Ukraine have tightened rules on releasing videos, so fewer videos are reaching the public domain. It can be many things, but not the 20 some minutes more flight time.
Seb rank	Fri Dec 13 16:22:40 2024 A 300km extra distance amounts to 20% of the combat range of an su34. Not exactly nothing.
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