Utopia Talk - Politics - Formula to predict trump surrenders

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Utopia Talk / Politics / Formula to predict trump surrenders

Jesse Malcolm Barack
rank Sun Jul 26 01:47:52
https://ww...n-a-pivot-is-expected-3d49a664

There’s a new mathematical formula that predicts ‘TACOs’ — here’s when Trump’s next pivot is expected

The term TACO — “Trump always chickens out” — has become a popular, if not always reliable, method to forecast the next turn from the mercurial American president, who’s now overseeing a new stage in the fight against Iran that few see as winnable.

So analysts at a geopolitical advisory firm have created a mathematical formula, using Trump’s well-known sensitivity to financial-market moves.

First, the variables: Brent crude oil
BRN00

+1.24%

, the U.S. 10-year yield
TMUBMUSD10Y

4.687%

, the number of Hormuz crossings and the S&P 500
SPX

+0.05%

.

Analysts at Signum Global Advisors led by Andrew Bishop weighted the components and evaluated the president’s sensitivity to them, taking March 7 as a starting point, a week after the U.S. and Israel first attacked Iran.

Then, they plotted his pivot to ceasefire negotiations, on March 22, his acceptance of one on April 7, and his decision to focus on a memorandum of understanding on May 18.

The results: It takes a 2.3- to 3.4-standard-deviations move for Trump to act — or an average of 2.9 standard deviations.

Putting that in today’s terms, the analysts find it’s not yet time to TACO — but the time is getting closer.

“Extrapolating linearly would suggest that a TACO could happen as early as July 22 and ‘should’ happen no later than July 30 (unless conditions materially improve, which seems unlikely) — with history suggesting July 26 as most likely,” they said.

Oil futures CL00 -1.87% on Wednesday hit a six-week high as U.S. stock futures ES00 -0.01% traded lower.

Sam Adams
rank Sun Jul 26 03:37:04
Trump is such a fucking retard.

show deleted posts

Jesse Malcolm Barack rank	Sun Jul 26 01:47:52 https://ww...n-a-pivot-is-expected-3d49a664 There’s a new mathematical formula that predicts ‘TACOs’ — here’s when Trump’s next pivot is expected The term TACO — “Trump always chickens out” — has become a popular, if not always reliable, method to forecast the next turn from the mercurial American president, who’s now overseeing a new stage in the fight against Iran that few see as winnable. So analysts at a geopolitical advisory firm have created a mathematical formula, using Trump’s well-known sensitivity to financial-market moves. First, the variables: Brent crude oil BRN00 +1.24% , the U.S. 10-year yield TMUBMUSD10Y 4.687% , the number of Hormuz crossings and the S&P 500 SPX +0.05% . Analysts at Signum Global Advisors led by Andrew Bishop weighted the components and evaluated the president’s sensitivity to them, taking March 7 as a starting point, a week after the U.S. and Israel first attacked Iran. Then, they plotted his pivot to ceasefire negotiations, on March 22, his acceptance of one on April 7, and his decision to focus on a memorandum of understanding on May 18. The results: It takes a 2.3- to 3.4-standard-deviations move for Trump to act — or an average of 2.9 standard deviations. Putting that in today’s terms, the analysts find it’s not yet time to TACO — but the time is getting closer. “Extrapolating linearly would suggest that a TACO could happen as early as July 22 and ‘should’ happen no later than July 30 (unless conditions materially improve, which seems unlikely) — with history suggesting July 26 as most likely,” they said. Oil futures CL00 -1.87% on Wednesday hit a six-week high as U.S. stock futures ES00 -0.01% traded lower.
Sam Adams rank	Sun Jul 26 03:37:04 Trump is such a fucking retard.
	show deleted posts

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