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Utopia Talk / Politics / Brexit success. Remainers destroyed.
Shannon
Member
Fri Apr 27 20:49:29

Project Fear victims take note. You were fooled and easily so, by your globalist puppet masters.

Skip to 1.58 to hear a complete destruction of the Remainer doomsayers.

https://youtu.be/PDoQ9ufpDX8

Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Sat Apr 28 05:08:09
But but the "experts" said things!
Seb
Member
Sat Apr 28 08:35:11
1. We haven't yet left. The delay in triggering article 50 (govt policy was to trigger it immediately) significantly changes transient effects.

2. Pound down by 20%, imports have risen less once the devaluation taken into account. A significant amount of short term increases were exports of gold from UK vaults. FDI has fallen off a cliff.

3. Significant movement of high value jobs overseas.

Seb
Member
Sat Apr 28 08:36:00
The robustness of the job market is to be welcomed, but hardly a refutation of brexit.
Dukhat
Member
Sat Apr 28 10:18:01
Nimatzo's posts are as dumb as the cuckservatives now. Never ever provides any evidence. A tiny brain that regressed once it left college and spent time in the wild. A true shit-poster.
Rugian
Member
Sat Apr 28 10:18:34
Time to disband the House of Lords.
Seb
Member
Sat Apr 28 10:49:08
Rugian:

Typical. Allagainst the govt when you don't like it. All for removing powers of checks and balances when you do.

I'd argue that the referendum gives a strong mandate to house of lords ad it was to for Parliament to "take back control" - i.e. parliamentary socvereignty - from those unrepresentative Europeans.
Rugian
Member
Sat Apr 28 13:38:48
Seb,

I have now seen the light. The Westminster system, which effectively puts all lawmaking power into a single body, is quite superior to our silly American system of checks and balances, and the Conservatives (and Irish creationists) who were elected to govern with an impressive 43.3% of the vote should be able to pass whatever legislation they want through Parliament without limit for as long as they remain in power. The House of Lords is merely an undemocratic check on a democratic institution and should be abolished posthaste.

"I'd argue that the referendum gives a strong mandate to house of lords ad it was to for Parliament to "take back control" - i.e. parliamentary socvereignty - from those unrepresentative Europeans."

I'd argue that the referendum gives a strong mandate for the British government to "take back control." Which, as we've established in another thread, doesn't include the House of Lords at all.

In all seriousness, when people do talk about "taking back control" of British sovereignty from the EU, I sincerely doubt any of them have giving the House of Lords more power in mind.
Rugian
Member
Sat Apr 28 13:41:32
Anyway, I look forward to watching the House of Commons debate on this important issue of restoring democratic rule in the United Kingdom. 100,000 signatures baby.
Seb
Member
Sat Apr 28 15:23:08
Rugian:

"The Westminster system, which effectively puts all lawmaking power into a single body"

I thought you were just asking for the abolition of the upper house? Parliament is bicameral.

"should be able to pass whatever legislation they want through Parliament"

They just got blocked by the house of Lords which you are now asking to abolish because (I assume given the context) they just blocked the govt?

"I'd argue that the referendum gives a strong mandate for the British government to "take back control.""
They kept talking about Parliamentary Sovereignty during the campaign. Arguing for the *Government* to be sovereign seems to me to be going back to before 1689 and saying that actually it's the crown alone that is sovereign. A retrograde step I feel, and not one that that can be said to be implicitly or explicitly on the ballot paper! Also unconstitutional.

" I sincerely doubt any of them have giving the House of Lords more power in mind."

The Lords hasn't got less power or more power than it has exercised in the last twenty or so years - largely May has fucked up and weakened herself.

The government has over the past 20 years been defeated in the Lords a number of times. Ultimately though, the lower house can invoked the Parliament act and the Salisbury convention... so the Lords can normally only slow things down, which works quite well for a revising chamber and is one really good reason not to go directly elected.

Only har har - leaving the customs union wasn't in May's manifesto (she left out most brexity stuff to avoid splitting her party) nor can she use the Parliament Act's provisions. That requires the commons to pass an act in three successive sessions and because, as you note, she's reliant on the DUP to shore up a minority government and decided to minimize the DUP bargaining power by having a single session for two years; there will now only be one session between the election and leaving. So not enough votes to be able to use the Parliament Act.

This, to me, looks like democracy working exactly as intended: Parliament thwarting a government from taking actions for which it has no explicit mandate and widespread opposition to.

She could always make these confidence issues and trigger another GE and this time get a specific mandate for them. Maybe this time Labour will campaign against Brexit.

Seriously though, the biggest problem is that at the moment both Labour and Tories are generally avoiding the chamber in the commons when these issues are being voted on. They can't bring themselves to support them, but don't want to trigger the political crisis of voting against them.

As for what the people want RE the Lords, I would point out the Liberals pushed for it in the coalition and it was the Tories that vote against it.

Seb
Member
Sat Apr 28 15:25:20
Rugian:

Don't get your hopes up. There was something like 5m that demanded a second referendum.

The debates triggered are non-binding.
CrownRoyal
Member
Sat Apr 28 15:33:28
what do you have in UK for election system, i am too lazy to google. First past the post? Or proportional?
Seb
Member
Sat Apr 28 15:43:19
FPTP for the commons. We rejected AV in a referendum in 2012 I think.
Seb
Member
Sat Apr 28 15:44:08
I generally dislike proportional. It tends to give party machine more control or make constituencies bigger.

I quite like AV.
CrownRoyal
Member
Sat Apr 28 15:54:30
I don't know what AV is. I googled (sigh), approval voting?
Seb
Member
Sat Apr 28 17:05:24
Alternative vote, sorry.

Basically, rate your votes in order, eliminate the candidate with the lowest first votes, reassign those votes to the next favorite inicated on the ballot.
Dukhat
Member
Sat Apr 28 18:09:07
So in other words, Trump would've been impossible in Britain.

What an advanced country you have.
CrownRoyal
Member
Sat Apr 28 18:32:36
any president is technically impossible in UK, they have no chief executive with powers.
CrownRoyal
Member
Sat Apr 28 18:33:37
currently, my biggest beef with Liberal party is the broken promise to replace FPTP
Sam Adams
Member
Sat Apr 28 20:15:08
I like england much better when shannon is talking, rather than seb.
shannon
Member
Sun Apr 29 20:36:01

The predicted disaster was to come immediately after the vote. The pants pissing exercise Seb indulged in for days after the referendum was highly amusing.

Sterling is back to its pre Brexit vote level. FDI has not collapsed. Lies and lies.

Seb
Member
Mon Apr 30 02:29:08
Shannon:

The report spell out the assumptions. Prior to the vote Cameron had promised European leaders he would immediately trigger a50. That did not happen.

Sterling is not back to pre brexit levels. Before brexit it traded at $1.56. Now $1.38 (most of the improvement being dollar falls against other currencies). In Euro terms (which accounts for most of our imports) EUR1.40 to EUR1.14

The sheer delusion of brexiteers is a thing to behold. "The economic hit was spread out... overwhelmingly negative, but drawn out. Success!!".

And we haven't even left yet.

And if you want to look at cumulative error in forecasts, let's recall economists for brexit that have not only the largest error, but in the wrong direction.

Let's remember how we were going to hold all the cards and the German car makers would be begging for concessions.

Instead David Davis has essentially negotiated a draft agreement where he's conceded full market access to the UK for EU firms with no say in the rules for that market, but limited access for our service sector.

Fucking retards. The less we hear from Shannon the bette.


shannon
Member
Mon Apr 30 03:56:15

There’s been no collapse. Our currency is fine. Osborne cut interest rates just before he was shown the door. That caused the exchange rate to fall. So what? What of all the other disasters you ate up like a good little troll? Not one has come to pass.

I welcome the fact goods from the EU is more expensive, they will be uncompetitive in the market. Employment and production is up in the UK...We will cut tariffs to the rest of the world and enjoy cheaper goods. Should have happened a long time ago but at least we can’t enjoy the benefits and pride of being an independent country again.


jergul
large member
Mon Apr 30 04:01:28
Shannon
Surely you can see how this is going to play out?

You are going to get a Norwegian deal with another name.

All the responsibilities and none of the formal power.
jergul
large member
Mon Apr 30 04:03:43
I will aknowledge that the pride factor does work. Norwegians are generally proud of not being in the EU.

But it is just window dressing. We are EU members for all practical purposes that does not involve elected representation in the EU political system.
Seb
Member
Mon Apr 30 04:52:31
Shannon:

The currency is back at pre brexit levels. It's not back at pre brexit levels. Osborne engineered a 20% decline in sterling with a .25% rate cut. But It's fine. Raised costs of living are great because it hurts the EU.

Compelling stuff that.

We already have very low tarrifs on most of the rest of the world through EUs trade deals. So unilateral free trade will not offset the decline in sterling.

To significantly reduce costs we'd need to strip away consumer and product standards which the public doesn't support.

And if we do go for unilateral free trade, we still have the issue of tariff and Non tariff barriers to our exports.

So expect further sterling falls.

So far, there's been no progress on tariffs and next year we are set to have tariffs rise on UK exports after we leave the EU custom union, while any country can export to us via the EU.

There's no hope of delivering the required customs infrastructure by the end of the transition period.

My my, you brexiteers have the best policies. For an encore, perhaps start a land war in Asia.
shannon
Member
Mon Apr 30 05:27:04

Seb always predicting disaster. Has no confidence in the UK as an independent nation.

UnEmployment down and production up. There’s no getting around the fact. Opposite of what you said would happen!

You bleat about exchange rates. They go up, and they go down. They. Go. Back. up again.

You fail to address any of the numerous points made in the Lords speech. To embarrassing for the likes of Seb.

Jergul thers no certainty, except we are Leaving the EU.
Seb
Member
Mon Apr 30 05:51:15
Shannon:

For someone who literally just claimed the pound was back to pre btexit levels when it was nowhere near it, you are on thin ice.

And brexit hasn't yet happened. But firms have relocated. Job losses will occur when we leave single market.

You are referring to mat Ridley (a man so idiotic I can barely read his columns anymore) who during said debate simply ignored several points he was factually wrong about.

Cling to your straws - but the data shows brexit so far has indeed been overwhelmingly negative economically. "It's not as bad as the worse case scenario" is a frankly pathetic argument to be putting up.

Literally nothing about the last year has gone the way brexiteers claimed. The EU has played Hardball, the govt - with its chief negotiator being an ardent brexiteer - has carved to the EU on all points, major companies have begun relocating jobs to the EU, the Irish border has become a sticking point requiring major concessions... and the Spanish haven't even begyn to exert leverage on Gibraltar.

All predicted, all waived away as ridiculous by you.

Brexit is turning out every bit the shambles predicted.
shannon
Member
Thu May 03 23:39:38
Lol worse case scenario was WW3 according to the PM at the time. Worst you have is a currency level that today is the same as in the early 2000s. Who fucking cares? Are you saying the kind will never go up Seb? Lol try your luck in the currency market casinos see how long you last.

Nothing bad has happened to the economy. Despite your bed wetting cries of terror. Exports are up! Unemployment down to a 42 year low. Forbes tanks UK no1 in the world to do business in 2018.

Disaster was to occur within weeks of the vote...yet nothing, other than the deep state blocking Brexit and trying to once against sell out the people of this country to their globalist masters.




shannon
Member
Thu May 03 23:40:55
Lol Gibraltar again. You are wrong Seb. Learn from your mistakes.
Seb
Member
Fri May 04 03:35:44
Shannon:

He did not say ww3. He did say it underpinned peace, and as you can see 're Northern Ireland border and the GFA, you can see be had a point.

The fact that you can only imagine the absence of peace to ww3 is a failure of your own ability to understand the world.

"Worst you have is a currency level that today is the same as in the early 2000s"

So our new normal (before we've even left CU/SM) is the depths of the dotcom bust 20 years in the past. Someone tell the orchestra to play rule Britania and break out the flags.

"Exports are up!"
In sterling terms. But are they up over 20%? If not, then actual volumes have not offset the drop in sterling buying power meaning we are, as a country, poorer. Since the principle benefit of trade is importing goods of equivalent value of lower price sourced overseas, and the only purpose of exports is to pay for imports, your supposed "boom" in exports is not good news.

Further, we haven't actually left yet - when trade barriers come up as we leave, we would expect UK exports to drop.

So no Shannon, not good news. If this is the high water mark it's fucking awful.

Unemployment is low thanks to a resilient and flexible Labour market. It would be low without brexit. However the underlying oroductivity issues remain. And we are now in the sweet spot where (hopefully) most of the price drops in sterling are priced in but we retain full access to the markets we are geared to. When we leave, if we leave the SM and CU you will then see tariffs and supply chain disruption. That's when you expect to see Labour market dustuption. And while tens of thousands of job moves have been announced and planned in 're the city, they havens yet been put into action because we haven't left yet.

So Shannon, yes, the HMT predictions were wrong in timing, but right in direction, and have the very fair point they assumed a50 being triggered immediately as per Cameron's policy. The extra year allows a mote measured approach, but the direction of travel remains the same.

Meanwhile, Brexiteer forecasts have been even more wrong in absolute terms, and in the wrong direction.

Three indisputable facts: we are poorer and growing more slowly than before the vote, the negotiations are not going our way with a choice between breaking GFA peace deal or losing any say on customs and single market rules, and further negative consequences are expected once we actually leave.

What's you rationale and forecast for increased prosperity Shannon? You've no positive case to make for brexit, or if you do you aren't making it.

"Learn from your mistakes"? Lol told you NO would be used as leverage to secure concessions. It's being used to secure concessions. It is you who should learn from yours! Spain already said it would be looking for sovereignty concessions in any eu UK trade deal.
Seb
Member
Fri May 04 06:13:29
Camerons quote on "WW3":

https://www.ft.com/content/c36e4b52-1538-11e6-b197-a4af20d5575e

David Cameron on Monday raised the stakes in the EU referendum debate, invoking the Balkans war and genocide in Srebrenica to make his case that Britain and the rest of Europe were more secure within a strong union. "The European Union has helped reconcile countries which were at each others’ throats for decades," Mr Cameron said."Britain has a fundamental national interest in maintaining common purpose in Europe to avoid future conflict between European countries. And that requires British leadership, and for Britain to remain a member," he said.

"Europe is our immediate neighbourhood. The stronger we are in our neighbourhood, the stronger we are in the world," Mr Cameron said, pointing to the conflict in the Balkans, including "genocide at Srebrenica" and more recent armed actions in Georgia and Ukraine.

So lets see:

1. Nobody has yet found a way to reconcile the Good Friday Agreement with leaving the SM and CU (staying in would make Brexit pointless). The GFA brought peace to Ireland, it's break up may lead to a resurgence in violence.

2. There is no legal frameowork in place to permit the UK to partake in EU peacekeeping operations except under an EU command, which would be unacceptable to us. As Turkey moves towards Russia, and America's withdrawl, NATO as a vehicle for this seems increasingly useless as a vehicle. Meanwhile Russia is fommenting trouble in the Balkans.

Further, we've been kicked out of the secured layer of Galileo programme, which the UK military considers fundamental for the effectiveness of our hard-power (the unjammable by current methods 1m high time resolution element used by our missiles). Even if we develop our own system (we should) - it just means we will be less able to iteroperate with EU missions in future, exacerbating the above issues.

Now, I'm sure you argue that these are not issues we should care about. But that doesn't make David Cameron's statement wrong. Factually, he was correct. Your point is we shouldn't care.
Seb
Member
Fri May 04 06:14:48
So shannon, give it your best shot then:

What are the tangible benefits to the UK that have demonstrably accrued because of Brexit to the UK so far?

Is the UK is a better position or worse economically vs where we were forecast to be two years ago?
shannon
Member
Fri May 04 08:33:07

You lost. You don’t get it. Brexit isn’t a mistake Remoanerds have to fix. It’s the desired result of a vote by the people.

We are leaving the EU, despite the best efforts of the globalists. Our future is outside in the real world, not the crazy-house EUSSR.


Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Fri May 04 08:44:37
What the tangible benefits are, that is to be determined, what is a fact is that fear mongering turned out to be just that. The Swedish left was fear mongering Sweden when we joined the EU. Now they love it.

And while what Jergul says is true, the years have flown by and Norway seems content with the deal, is there even any talk about a new referendum?

It was a sad day when the UK voted to leave, but not the fear mongerers wet dream and nothing indicating that it will turn out that way, because no one wants it to turn out that way. For tangible benefits or loss, let us get back in 15-20 years and review the facts then.
Seb
Member
Fri May 04 11:17:01
Shannon:

I don't think you get it. We are leaving the EU (unless there is a fundamental change in government policy) - that is not the question we are discussing.

What we are discussing is "what will the impact of leaving be".

What you are not telling me at all is whether you can point to any economic benefits that have occured since the decision to leave that can be attributed to leaving, or why you think there will be any improvements.

Nim:
Actually, the fear mongering seems largely substantiated.

Remain said it would imperil the peace in Ireland. And indeed the Good Friday Agreement does not look to be compatible with leaving the single market and customs union. The govt and the EU remain deadlocked on the issue.

Remain said the pound would fall in value and the UK would become poorer. The pound has devalued by a significant ammount, the UK's rank in terms of GDP and GDP per capita has fallen as a result, and GDP growth has fallen.

Remain said unemployment would rise as jobs relocate. Companies have announced a huge number of relocations - that hasn't happened yet but then those won't happen until we fully exit the SM and CU (which is now about 3 years away given the transition agreement).

Remain said that the EU would play hardball in negotiations and that Spain and Ireland would use , we would not be allowed to have our cake and eat it. LEave said we held all the cards and Geman industry would force EU conessions to maintain access. The EU has indeed played hardball, and Ireland has extracted concessions, and Spain has vowed to but we haven't got to the point where it can extract concessions because Ireland is still holding us up from negotiating a new deal. Geman industry has supported the German govts policies of playing hardball.

Remain said we would pay a large amount of money to exit the EU. We have agreed to pay a large amount of money to exit the EU.

Leave promissed £350m a week in savings, in practice we look set to be paying out much of that to maintain in EU programmes, and then the costs of setting up UK govt functions to replace those returning from the EU means overall Brexit will cost us from a fiscal perspective.

Every significant prediction by remain has occured or looks set to occur to some degree.

And all the UKIPers have is to keep telling us all they won - but they can't outline a path to prosperity.

Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Fri May 04 11:59:06
I will put the Exit fear mongering and engagement in fake news in the same basket as Remain. All talk. It is just too early to tell, but you know, I am a happy pessimist.

So the most important aspect I think, is how to reconcile the two halves that are your country now and move forward. I think we can agree that this wasn't just any vote on any old question. This was by all accounts a watershed moment facilitated by an underwhelming majority vote. Trade deals and regulatory affairs are not the issue imo.
Seb
Member
Fri May 04 12:58:17
I now see why Shannon is waffling. Ukip got wiped out in local elections. Lib Dems biggest winners.

Seb
Member
Fri May 04 13:07:48
Nim:

What? I find that bizarre. These things are now matters of record.
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