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Utopia Talk / Politics / London liberal wonderland
Sam Adams
Member
Sun Jun 17 09:52:10
1) ban citizens from defending themselves with guns
2) import criminals
3) reduce policing

Lol, the retardation is strong with this group.

http://www...police-new-figures-reveal.html
Cthulhu
Tentacle Rapist
Sun Jun 17 12:31:21
Its only retarded if their goal isnt too tyranize. By allowing spikes in violence and pulling protection against it, they can make the citizens yearn for 1984
Seb
Member
Sun Jun 17 12:54:14
Retardation by Sam.

The areas where low solved rates are all rural - no immigrants. Almost certainly a rise in crime by poor whites driven by low wages and cuts to social services etc.

None of the areas are London.


Seb
Member
Sun Jun 17 12:56:40
Confusing London with Rushcliffe is like confusing New York city with Wyoming.
Rugian
Member
Sun Jun 17 13:54:34
Before this thread turns into a "everyone vs. Seb" shitfest, can I point out this picture caption in the article:


"Some of the scores of terrifying blades recovered by officers in London in the past year"

The knives shown are all kitchen knives.

Terrifying.
Cthulhu
Tentacle Rapist
Sun Jun 17 16:06:07
Im sure theyre terrifying to you Rugian, but real men cant be hurt by kitchen knives
Sam Adams
Member
Sun Jun 17 17:22:15

"The worrying statistics will add to concerns about the surge of violent crime in the UK, particularly in London."

Directly from the article sebfail. Lol.
Forwyn
Member
Sun Jun 17 17:26:31
"The knives shown are all kitchen knives."

I see an over-representation of butcher and carver knives.

How will we solve this epidemic of assault knives?
Seb
Member
Mon Jun 18 05:01:45
Sam, don't believe the shit you read in the Daily Mail.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_London#/media/File:London_Homicide_1990-2017.png

As you can see, homicide has risen "dramatically" in the last few years from an all time low.

The reality is the violent crime rate is so low that percentage statistics are misleading - they are strongly effected by correlated incidents like, e.g., a gang war.

Population of london is 10m, so the rate for 2017 is 1.3 homicides per 100,000.

So dangerous multicultural London has a homicide rate the same as New Hampshire, the lowest homicide state in the US.

Terrifying.

Seb
Member
Mon Jun 18 07:27:06
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_by_crime_rate

There are three cities in the entire US that have a lower homicide rate than London.
Sam Adams
Member
Mon Jun 18 09:13:38
So you had this good thing going and are trying to ruin it? Look at the trend. Perhaps you should stop trending in that direction? Learn from our failures, dont copy them.
Seb
Member
Mon Jun 18 10:34:56
Trend or reversion to the mean? This year's figure us still lower than the ten year average for the previous decade.

If we were in steady state you'd still expect fluctuations. And when crime is close to zero small numbers mean transient events like gang conflict will cause large fluctuation in percentage terms. I'm sure there are villages where ever so often the murder rate shoots up by infinity in a year.

There's simply no real evidence here for dramatic policy changes.

Seb
Member
Mon Jun 18 10:36:56
Sam, in other words, stop getting your knickers in a twist.

Your failures are creating a black underclass through slavery followed up by systemic discrimination resulting in worse education, entrenched poverty, worse access to social services and alienation from law and order etc.

Rest assured, we are not making the same mistakes.

smart dude
Member
Mon Jun 18 11:24:08
"Your failures are creating a black underclass through slavery"

Whose failures? Britain wasn't involved in the Atlantic slave trade? News to me. Just the UK doesn't have to deal with the problem now. Fuck you, you Imperialist shit.
Seb
Member
Mon Jun 18 12:38:32
smart dude:

Hey, we didn't have slavery here. The bits of Britain that were "involved", i.e. bought all the slaves, are your ancestors not mine. As you recall you guys fought a war to keep your own right to set laws locally.

It was never legal in England, UK subjects participation in the slave trade illegal by 1803, and slave holding throughout the empire by 1833 - with it being a major focus of British global ban a major foreign policy focus from the early 19th c on-wards.

So yes, very much your failures. The UK government never forced the colonies to import slaves. And the failure to sort it out since, that's on you too.
Seb
Member
Mon Jun 18 12:42:46
The Canadian colonies banned slavery in the 1790s!
Rugian
Member
Mon Jun 18 13:09:01
Seb,

1. Slavery was legal in Canada until the 1830s, although some courts had declared ownership claims unenforceable before then.

2. That was really progressive and brave of the Canadians to do that, what with their near-total nonreliance on slave labor.

3. Britain spent the 19th century starting wars with China over the right to illegally turn millions of yellow people into opium fiends. Let's not pretend that abolitionism in the UK succeeded for any other reason than it was economically feasible to ban it. If England lay slightly closer to the Tropic of Cancer, you guys would probably still be trading in negroes.
Seb
Member
Mon Jun 18 14:17:02
Rugian:

Quite right, it was importation of slaves in 1790s.

"If England lay slightly closer to the Tropic of Cancer"

What, you mean like our extensive colonial holdings... to claim this was no principled is daft.
Nekran
Member
Mon Jun 18 15:09:16
"Learn from our failures, dont copy them."

Gun ownership isn't wildly unregulated in the UK, don't worry.
Sam Adams
Member
Mon Jun 18 15:17:43
Gun ownership rate is not correlated with murder rate, either positively or negatively, in either of two datasets: us states, global countries.

Try again nekran. What is well correlated with murder rate?
Seb
Member
Mon Jun 18 16:55:30
And yet it in American schools, pupils regularly get shot and you drill for it.

Strangely, this does not happen in societies were guns are well regulated.

Seb
Member
Mon Jun 18 16:59:55
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Household_gun_ownership_vs_Homicide_rate_2000-2001.png

If the x-axis was "percentage of african americans" sam would say this was a figure showing clear correlation.

Hmm, so while there is definitely not a simple straight line correlation, that does look remarkably like gun ownership sets and upper bound on homicide rate.

But if you account for the fact that cross border flows in US states is going to increase dispersion, and focus instead on the blue, that really does look like correlation.

Rugian
Member
Mon Jun 18 17:59:53
Seb,

http://www.themaparchive.com/the-british-empire-1850.html

What holdings, exactly? Do you mean Australia, whose labor needs were more than satisfied with penal transportations? The West Indies, where slave revolts were becoming an regular and expensive burden to suppress? Or India, which - as coincidence would have it! - got a sweet BEIC exemption from the abolition act altogether?

Of course there was a moral dimension to abolitionism (incidentally, thank God for Christian fundies, amirite?). At the same time, it's no coincidence that abolitionism only started scoring legislative victories after the Industrial Revolution was well underway.

The fact is, the UK was happy to allow slavery to flourish throughout the empire until the profitability ratios started to decline, at which point Britain suddenly and magically discovered its conscience. What a pillar of morality.

This is a country that opened the 19th century with pick-pocketing classified as a capital crime, for God's sake. Human dignity didn't hold a candle next to a P&L statement in His Majesty's lovely realm.

I am glad that the British Isles have long had enough of a labor surplus to make slavery unnecessary in the islands. But then again, that's what started the whole colonial rush in the first place, isn't it - too many people with not enough opportunities at home.

Sam Adams
Member
Mon Jun 18 19:02:25
"And yet it in American schools, pupils regularly get shot and you drill for it. "

And yet in london muslim imports generally stab run over and blow up people. And you drill for it. Lol dumbseb pwnt.
Sam Adams
Member
Mon Jun 18 19:04:38
Seb why doesnt your image contain african and hispanic countries with low gun ownership and massive crime rates? Hmmm? Trying to edit out data you do not like? Lol dumbass. Plot them all.
Seb
Member
Tue Jun 19 00:17:20
I have never heard of a school knife attack drills Sam.

This is clearly some hitherto unknown use of the term generally to mean "a handful of incidents".

Sam, your country and culture is child abducting cess pool. Largely because of people like you. Sort yourself out.
Sam Adams
Member
Tue Jun 19 09:32:22
Why did you leave out half the data points in your chart seb?
Seb
Member
Tue Jun 19 09:53:20
I didnt produce the chart Sam.

But which countries with the same broad socio economic conditions do you think are missing?
Sam Adams
Member
Tue Jun 19 10:41:35
You introduced the chart as evidence to support your case. You own it. You have failed.

"socio economic conditions"

Is indeed well correlated with crime. Congrats. Now can you think of something else that is also well correlated with crime?
Seb
Member
Tue Jun 19 11:03:15
Sam:

I am simply pointing out that asking me why I left a data point out is bizarre when you know I didn't produce the graph.

Now, can you tell me which countries you think are good comparator to the US have been committed?
Sam Adams
Member
Tue Jun 19 11:26:56
All countries are valid data points. Keep in mind that the us has more income inequality than you are used to. We coddle the weak less here than europe does.
Sam Adams
Member
Tue Jun 19 11:29:02
And i am simply pointing out that you introduced a retarded plot that ignored valid data, almost certainly intentionally.
Seb
Member
Tue Jun 19 16:16:30
Your argument is that there should be no attempt to control for any factors likely to affect homicide rates, like education etc?

It's almost as if you want to intentionally obscure any trend.
Seb
Member
Tue Jun 19 16:18:31
I mean, it sounds like you are saying it is more valid to compare the US to say, Somalia than the UK, France or Germany.
Sam Adams
Member
Tue Jun 19 16:28:06
No seb i am specifically asking you what factors are actually correlated with crime rates. Education is another. Can you think of any more?
Sam Adams
Member
Tue Jun 19 16:29:27
Also i see theres been another "tube" bombing although apperently minor it laughs in the face of your school shooting histeria.
Seb
Member
Tue Jun 19 16:38:32
Sam:

I think your logic is back to front. You are saying any scatter plot should contain all countries with no attempt to control for those factors. So If education is a factor, you only want to include countries with comparable education.

Are you saying that US education lags European countries This explaining the trend?
Seb
Member
Tue Jun 19 16:44:24
If you mean Parsons green with a few people treated for minor burns, that's hardly sandy hook is it?
Sam Adams
Member
Tue Jun 19 17:07:13
Ok lets control for all other factors. Race, income, education, income inequality, liberalism. Vermont is probably the closest us state to other western countries. Liberal, white, well educated, relatively weak economy per capita. Murder rate generally around 1.4 pretty similar to yours. Hmmmm.
Seb
Member
Tue Jun 19 17:08:32
Oh wow, just figure put you mean a battery short circuit.

2 people taken to hospital for minor burns.

The horror the horror. Exactly like 20 preteens being shot up with automatic weapons.
Sam Adams
Member
Tue Jun 19 17:11:43
Explain finland and switzerland seb. Tons of guns, same ballpark murder rate as other eu countries.

Explain africa and latin america. Tons of fucking murders, few guns.

If you plot all countries by gun ownership against murders, you get a totally uncorrelated scatter plot with r2 near 0.
Sam Adams
Member
Tue Jun 19 17:14:09
"Exactly like 20 preteens being shot up with automatic weapons."

Oh that is so much worse than having muslims blow up 20 teens at a concert in manchester. Dumbseb.
Sam Adams
Member
Tue Jun 19 17:16:48
The key difference is i am perfectly willing to take guns away from psychos and their parents. While you want to keep importing future bombers. Because you are dumb.
Seb
Member
Tue Jun 19 17:20:37
So the 1.4 figure was specifically for london.

London is a population of 10m with high population density. Whites make up under 60% of the population at the last census in 2011). About 13% black (Your go to explanation). Hispanics we can't measure because, well, we consider them white (hello Spain, portugal)

Vermont ... doesn't look a good fit. 600k population (So a large town?) with low population density.

So let's look at US cities over 1m and circa 10% - 15% population African American since that's your go to factor.
Seb
Member
Tue Jun 19 17:21:53
Sam:

Yes it's worse because it's far more preventable and occurs far more often.
Seb
Member
Tue Jun 19 17:22:18
Sam, what's the racial breakdown of school shooters?
Sam Adams
Member
Tue Jun 19 17:30:39
"Yes it's worse because it's far more preventable and occurs far more often."

False. The per capita rate of mass murder amongst muslim migrants is way higher than amongst white asian or even mexicans.


"Sam, what's the racial breakdown of school shooters?"

Bout 80% inner city africans. Next?
Sam Adams
Member
Tue Jun 19 17:30:39
"Yes it's worse because it's far more preventable and occurs far more often."

False. The per capita rate of mass murder amongst muslim migrants is way higher than amongst white asian or even mexicans.


"Sam, what's the racial breakdown of school shooters?"

Bout 80% inner city africans. Next?
Seb
Member
Wed Jun 20 03:37:11
Sam:

Where's the data for that 80% figure? It seems all the high profile ones tend to be white.

Anyway, I see you've gone very quiet about how Vermont is a good model for london.

Do you want to provide some demographically equivalent US cities instead given you've gone very shy?
Sam Adams
Member
Wed Jun 20 09:42:28
New york is the obvious answer, which we just discussed having a lower but similar murder rate to london.

"It seems all the high profile ones tend to be white."

indeed. Africans shooting eachother is so normal that they dont make the news as much.
Seb
Member
Wed Jun 20 10:45:40
New York city has a homicide rate over twice London's at 3.4 per 100,000.

And it's a single data point.

Do you have source data for your 80% figure?

It seems necessary given you've erroneously compared Vermont to London and then asserted NYC has a lower murder rate than london.





smart dude
Member
Wed Jun 20 11:10:19
Sam is looking at 2018 numbers, Seb. You are looking at 2017 numbers. Obviously you can narrow your sample size (e.g. New York today vs. London today) and on any given day you can claim that one city has a higher murder rate than another. A bit of a fudge. Looking at long/medium-term trends, it seems London has a murder rate. Depends on what timescale you think is relevant.
smart dude
Member
Wed Jun 20 11:10:46
*London has a lower murder rate
smart dude
Member
Wed Jun 20 11:16:24
Why are people so fixated on school shootings and mass murders? Yes the perps tend to be white male, but overall murder rate is disproportionately non-white. Why does it matter? What's the difference between 20 people killed in one go vs. 20 people killed in 20 separate incidents? Oh, because the former gets more media attention.

But killing is killing, death is death. Constantly bringing up mass murders is clearly cherry-picking in order to assign disproportionate blame to whites. Whataboutism at its finest. "Blacks tend to commit homicide more than whites." "But what about school shootings, huh?" "..."
Seb
Member
Wed Jun 20 11:39:11
Smart dude:

You realise this is a thread created by Sam, to push his trumpists agenda that we are "importing mass murderers", and he's fixating on the idea that Muslims predominantly commit mass murders.

You can't sit there and claim with a straight face anyone other than him has introduced race, nor can you plausibly claim that introducing school shootings skews the facts against whites when Sam introduced the category to do the opposite!
Seb
Member
Wed Jun 20 11:40:08
Smart dude:

There aren't 2018 figures yet. It's only June.
smart dude
Member
Wed Jun 20 11:56:31
Huh? I don't follow you. I'm not talking about the whole year. I'm talking about for the year so far. I know what month it is ffs.
smart dude
Member
Wed Jun 20 11:58:55
Anyway, like you, I'm interested in where the 80% came from.
smart dude
Member
Wed Jun 20 11:59:59
Oh but you brought up the race of school shooters, not Sam.
Seb
Member
Wed Jun 20 12:18:14
NYC 2017, 290 with pop of 8.5m - 3.4/100k
London 2017, 130 with pop of 8.4m* - 1.5/100k

Sam says NYC and London are demographically equivalent so, does this support the idea that it's race, not guns, that make the difference here?

* Using closest comparable boundary definitions. Metropolitan area would be around 10m.


Seb
Member
Wed Jun 20 12:24:29
Smart dude:

Initially as a point of an entire criminal phenomenon which simply doesn't happen in societies with gun control.

However psychotic our angry young white male adolescents are, it's just simply not something they are able to do because they have no access to guns, and running amok with a knife is nowhere near as dangerous and requires much greater degree of psychological disorders to carry through with than shooting people.

And also to pre-empt the tiresome repetitive claim he'll inevitably make about terrorism,race etc.
Seb
Member
Wed Jun 20 12:25:16
So in my view it's very pertinent - it's a very clear example how guns do indeed increase crime.
Sam Adams
Member
Wed Jun 20 12:52:57
"
So in my view it's very pertinent - it's a very clear example how guns do indeed increase crime"

Explain why zurich has more guns and less crime then.
Sam Adams
Member
Wed Jun 20 13:01:25
The 80% came from eyeballing some school shooting database in the news recently. Typically africans commit 50 to 55% of all us murders, so 80% could be a little high, but school shootings were seriously biased towards inner city schools.
Forwyn
Member
Wed Jun 20 14:36:32
"angry young white male adolescents"

muh Swiss mass shootings
Seb
Member
Wed Jun 20 16:53:44
Sam:

First explain why London has half the number of homicides than your comparable US city.
Nekran
Member
Wed Jun 20 22:04:09
"Explain why zurich has more guns and less crime then."

Gun ownership is pretty well regulated in Switzerland. Permits are a necessity and private gun ownership isn't all that high (on the high side in the world, but lower than a number of other european countries).

Apart from that, Switzerland is a very wealthy country. Very low poverty rates will fix up most of your crime stats.

"First explain why London has half the number of homicides than your comparable US city."

Seems like a much more interesting question.
Sam Adams
Member
Thu Jun 21 10:24:50

"First explain why London has half the number of homicides than your comparable US city."

Back when you did have a lower crime rate you had fewer africans. Now that you have more africans your crime rate is increasing. http://www...amp/uk-england-london-43610936
Sam Adams
Member
Thu Jun 21 11:13:27

"Gun ownership is pretty well regulated in Switzerland. "

I have no problem with increasing background checks to exclude citizens in poor standing, so long as the burden on citizens in good standing is near zero.
Seb
Member
Fri Jun 22 03:35:52
Sam:

Firstly, you picked New York as comparable demographically to control for this variable.

Are you saying you are incompetent, or just stupid?

Secondly, do you think London's black population changed significantly in the last five years?

Why did murder rates drop from around 180 a year on average between 1990 to 2002, to a low of 80 in 2013, when BAME population increased slightly during that period?
Sam Adams
Member
Fri Jun 22 11:04:06
"Firstly, you picked New York as comparable demographically to control for this variable. "

Its almost like you dont realize these change with time. I used the most recent data. You went back in time to try to massage the data.
Sam Adams
Member
Fri Jun 22 11:06:25

"Why did murder rates drop"

In the us in that period murder rates dropped due to a higher jail population and due to increasing technology to solve crime.
Sam Adams
Member
Fri Jun 22 11:11:33
Also increasing abortions helped in the us.
Seb
Member
Fri Jun 22 12:25:51
Sam:

2017 is the last complete year. So not back in time.

I asked you to find a comparable city to control for demographics. You chose NYC.

To explain the difference you again used race, even though you had controlled for this.

Now you say the demographics must have changed. But actually looking at the trends, crime in London seems to vary when demographics aren't changing.

What has US prison population got to go with London murder rates? Will you be invoking astrology next?

Sam Adams
Member
Fri Jun 22 12:41:36
Demographics are not changing?

http://www...-Britons-minority-capital.html

Stop being willfully ignorant seb.
Sam Adams
Member
Fri Jun 22 12:43:46

"2017 is the last complete year. So not back in time. "

And you ignored 2018 because? It couldnt possibly be because you didnt like that data? Lol@seb.
Seb
Member
Fri Jun 22 17:33:19
Sam:

I haven't ignored 2018. It's June. So 2018 isn't a complete year so you'd need to do monthly adjustment. We can come back next Feb when stats are published and update this thread to see if it makes a difference. (It wont).

Now:

Firstly, that article is woeful - no evidence of "flight" as London's population actively grew during that period - the change is most likely driven by natural attrition - and note "white british", the big increase will be from the accession EU countries that drive the bulk of immigration: poles and Romanians, who are white. Hence the census shows black population of London moving from 11% to 13% over the ten year period 2001 to 2011.
On that note, secondly it's talking about the period 2001 to 2011, which is the period where crime declined significantly. So doesn't seem to work does it?

This is what happens when you quote the daily mail and "go back in time to massage figures".

Thirdly, if we actually do the numbers, this corresponds to about a 0.2% point shift per year. Is that significant?

Ok. So let's skip to the period of the "rise" in crime, the demographics between 2015 and 2018 haven't changed significantly: immigration reforms in the Cameron govt saw to that.

So no, this doesn't explain the rise - it cannot because it refers to a period 15 years prior to the timeframe we are looking at, and moreover as the timeframe you are looking at corresponds to a much greater drop in crime than the supposed current rise, it directly contradicts your thesis.

And none of this explains why, in 2017, homicide rate of London is half that of NYC - the city you say is demographically equivalent so race can't be a factor.

Is it fair to say now, having dodged the issue, you cannot explain it?

're immigration and crime, saw this today:


https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/wonk/wp/2018/06/19/two-charts-demolish-the-notion-that-immigrants-here-illegally-commit-more-crime/?__twitter_impression=true
Sam Adams
Member
Sat Jun 23 11:12:47
Count your knives seb.

http://www...s-combat-knife-crime-bloodbath


Wahahahaha
Seb
Member
Sat Jun 23 12:43:18
Sam admits then that he cannot back up his hypothesis.
Seb
Member
Sat Jun 23 12:43:18
Sam admits then that he cannot back up his hypothesis.
Sam Adams
Member
Mon Jun 25 09:09:18
It takes time for the white flight to take its affect. Sure, the increasing criminals are bad by themselves, but it gets even worse once the government and police force get infested too.

So seb, why is londons crime rising now?
Seb
Member
Mon Jun 25 10:09:26
something something something time something massage figures something.

Why would crime rate lag the population stats?

Do the "immigrant criminals" all wait fifteen years to go on a crime spree?

And you now seem to be suggesting the government and the police force are actually part of the causal mechanism.

Do you have any evidence for any of this, or are you just making shit up to defend your theory which actually runs directly counter to the established data?
Seb
Member
Mon Jun 25 10:19:34
Why is crime rising now? You ask.

Is it rising in any meaningful way? We've had two successive years of rime increases from a historic low.

As I've pointed out, the "highest crime for years" is still below the running average for the previous decade. When crime is low, small changes appear as large percentage swings as we are close to the lower bound.

I would say this is simply a reversion to mean. Crime, as all things, fluctuates. The stats will not be exactly the same each year, so there is no real evidence that we just haven't had a few years with relatively low crime rates followed by a year with more normal crime rates.

If it were shown to be rising, I would say the obvious things are:
1. Poverty - low wage growth coupled with high interest rates and the decline of the pound means that there are more people now living below the poverty line which we know is a factor that drives some to crime.

2. Drugs - special case of the above: drug prices have risen. We know the drug trade drives crime. Most acquisition crime is based on the need to fund drug habits - which has a spill over into violent crime (theft, robbery, gang conflict)

3. Gang conflict - this year has seen a big turf war in London between local gangs - see relative importance of transient events due to low baseline rates.

4. Police cut backs - the police will tell you this is due to police cut backs, but police cut backs were also going on when crime fell to it's lowest level.
Sam Adams
Member
Mon Jun 25 10:22:22
Ah so theres no way importing increasing number of low income low education folks from violent societies could possibly up your crime rates?

Stop being retarded.
Sam Adams
Member
Mon Jun 25 10:24:14

"Why would crime rate lag the population stats? "

It takes time to enact retarded liberal soft on crime policies, to hire based on protected status instead of competence, and for future criminals to come of age?
Seb
Member
Mon Jun 25 10:40:31
Sam:

"Ah so theres no way importing increasing number of low income low education folks from violent societies could possibly up your crime rates?"

The bulk of UK immigration is fro Europe, and immigration figures have been falling, not rising.

So indeed, there is no way that it can be said that the current crime rise can be attributed to immigration.

Stop making shit up.

"It takes time to enact retarded liberal soft on crime policies, to hire based on protected status instead of competence, and for future criminals to come of age?"

Most immigrants are not children, so the contribution of these criminals from "bad cultures" ought to be apparent immediately. If on the other hand, people are growing up in London, then the culture they are picking up is the local culture, isn't it?

Lets face it sam, you have no data to support your claim, and the data we do have directly contradicts it, so you are forced to make up absurd secondary hypothesis for which you also have no data or which are contrary to the data.

Soon you will be invoking crystal spheres!
Sam Adams
Member
Tue Jun 26 14:19:41
"The bulk of UK immigration is fro Europe"

Not relevant. Why do you keep bringing up retarded irrelevent shit? Crime is specifically tied to increasing immigration from shitholes. Which you are doing, in combination with other retarded sjw policies like reducing police and decreasing punishments. Which is why london crime is rising.
Seb
Member
Tue Jun 26 16:57:30
Sam:

No. Immigration dropped during the period 2002 to 2014.

This is factually incorrect. As has been explained.

What evidence then do you have to support your claims?

To run down:
1. Non EU migration has dropped.
2. The proportion of black minorities in London rose as crime fell, and has held steady when crime rose.
3. Both of these points contradict your hypothesis and suggest if anything, the reverse.

4.The "rise" is simply two years in a row where crime stats are higher than the lowest crime rate in decades, bothof which still below the average rate over the past decade, so actually there is no real evidence of a rise that needs to be explained.

Meanwhile you have advanced no credible reason why demographically equivalent NYC and London have such differing homicide rates. Gun culture and regulations are the obvious answer.
And you have no answer the wapo article debunking your immigrant crime hypothesis in the US.

Face it Sam: you have no evidence to back your assertions.
Sam Adams
Member
Tue Jun 26 17:59:08

"No. Immigration dropped during the period 2002 to 2014.
"

Londons white flight indicates you are full of shit.

Littereally everything you said is wrong and contradicted by recent data.
Sam Adams
Member
Tue Jun 26 18:08:26

"The black population of London in 2010 was just over 12%, yet black males were responsible for 54% of street crimes and 59% of gun crimes."


http://en....nd_crime_in_the_United_Kingdom



Seb pwnt.
Seb
Member
Wed Jun 27 02:08:56
Sam:

There's no evidence of white flight. Just normal rates of attrition. I've shown you the official stats. You are just relying on a notoriously innacurate newspaper's headline over an article that's using the same official stats I've given you.

Sure, if you want to believe fluffy studies headline writer over the hard stats, fine.

I've shown you all the data. You've presented... A headline.

You now quote wiki.

Firstly, the quote is again innacurate. Layer in the article, it states these are accusations.

Secondly, adjusting for poverty, what's the racial breakdown? If the black population represents approx 60% of the population below poverty line, this racial breakdown shows nothing of interest or relevance.

In any case, it destroys your argument that the current "rise" in crime can be explained by immigration.

And you've not addressed the wapo article.


Sam Adams
Member
Wed Jun 27 09:14:33
"Sure, if you want to believe fluffy studies headline"

"
And you've not addressed the wapo article"

Is anything you say ever correct or consistent?
Seb
Member
Wed Jun 27 09:33:48
Where's your evidence. Numbers please.
Sam Adams
Member
Wed Jun 27 10:17:32
I love how you directly contradicted yourself in the space of a few lines in a single post.

Lol confused.

Anyway the evidence is total. If at this point you dont accept the black crime rate is vastly higher than the white and asian rate, you are retarded beyond repair.
Seb
Member
Wed Jun 27 10:33:31
Sam:

If you don't adjust for poverty rate, simply comparing race is meaningless.

In any case, if black population has increased by 0.6 percentage points a year while crime dropped over 50%, but then crime increased by c. 40% while the black population held steady, there's a clear need for oodles of secondary hypotheses you've invoked, none of which have supporting evidence other than "This must be true in order for my primary hypothesis to work".

That's literally theology - the ontological proof of god - not science.
Sam Adams
Member
Wed Jun 27 12:40:00
"If you don't adjust for poverty rate, simply comparing race is meaningless. "

black poor are demonstratably more crime prone than white or asian poor, and even if not, the fact that one group is more likely to be poor AND commit crimes certainly does not help your argument. Lol sebfail.

"Its ok for black people to commit so much crime because they are poor"

-seb
Seb
Member
Wed Jun 27 12:55:30
"black poor are demonstratably more crime prone"

Ok, demonstrate it with figures from London then.

Also you are again forgetting that immigration to London is predominantly asian and european, not african - so all of this is a big distraction.


Even bigger given you were initially asked to account for the differences in Gun crime between NY and London - having identified NY as a control for London in terms of ethnic demography.

Seb
Member
Wed Jun 27 12:56:24
"Its ok for black people to commit so much crime because they are poor"

At no point have we been discussing an ethical or values based analysis.

The fact you reach this conclusion is a great example of how flawed you are at thinking.
Sam Adams
Member
Wed Jun 27 13:38:27
"to London is predominantly asian and european, not african "

The fact that london has 13% africans and increasing shows you to be full of shit. Africans
Seb
Member
Wed Jun 27 15:44:30
Sam:

Sam, are a bit thick. Much like your brilliant observation that London was a bit like Vermont.

The black population of the UK isn't African - it's British, predominantly descendants from Caribbean immigrants from the 50's.
Sam Adams
Member
Wed Jun 27 16:47:45
Who are themselves descended recently from africans. Duh. Dumbseb. You know very little, and london sucks.
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