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Utopia Talk / Politics / Idlib offensive
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Mon Sep 03 00:41:42
The western propaganda machine is in full swing, ”it will be a blood bath”. Yes judging by all the previous bloodbaths it will be terrible...
Dukhat
Member
Mon Sep 03 00:50:15
Maybe you should listen to your hero jordan b petersen and take responsibility for yourself and achieve something today other than whining about feminists you retard.
Pillz
Member
Mon Sep 03 00:55:57
Who is your wife doing for Labour day, Cuckhat?
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Mon Sep 03 01:04:46
I have no idea what the fuck you are talking about Dickface. Completely incoherent. I have no idea what JBP and feminists have to do with the Syrian war. Did your head finally have a date with a baseball bat?
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Mon Sep 03 01:07:31
And besides I am taking responsibility for my son today and schooling him in at pre-school. So in your dickled face. A dickled face being a pickled dick.
jergul
large member
Mon Sep 03 02:21:50
Western propaganda is in fact quite helpful. It helped create all kinds of humanitarian measures.

But still. Hundreds of civilians will likely die.
Allahuakbar
Member
Mon Sep 03 03:16:03
It WILL be a bloodbath^^
jergul
large member
Mon Sep 03 04:22:33
Alla
No worries. You are not nearly radical enough to not qualify for having your legal status settled and be reintegrated into society.

There has to be smoking knife videos of you actually commiting an attrocity not to qualify.

This due in part to western propaganda. The regime errs on the side of caution.
Rugian
Member
Mon Sep 03 05:56:10
OP had me excited that the offensive was finally going down. For shame, nim.
Dukhat
Member
Mon Sep 03 08:12:54
Pathetic retards think doing menial tasks for their kids is something worth mentioning. Dumb monkey.
Rugian
Member
Mon Sep 03 08:47:03
Dukhat, hush.

Of course, barring a quick collapse of the rebels' resolve, the offensive will indeed likely kick off a humanitarian crisis. Idlib was an HTC stronghold as well as a government dumping ground for rebels who refused to reconcile, so this is likely going to get ugly pretty fast. Such is war.

Although to speak to nim's point, it is amusing to see how the Western propaganda machine works. It's not about whether or not the claim is true so much as that the establishment has collectively decided to use that particular narrative. I've been seeing bloodbath claims for the last month now, and you can tell that all such claims are just feeding off one another.

I don't know why everyone is saying this will be the last major offensive though. As long as Assad continues to refuse to back down from insisting that the SDF bends the knee, I'm not buying the whole negotiated settlement that jergul believes will happen.
jergul
large member
Mon Sep 03 09:06:11
Ruggy
Idlib is highly connected. A real humanitarian crisis would have to be based on the regime abandoning ceasefire and safe passage corridors, on Turkey sealing the frontier from refugees, and/or *gasp* rebels sabotaging evacuations for human shield and humanitarian aid reasons.

The alternative to a negotiated settlement would indeed be more offensives.

Rugian
Member
Mon Sep 03 09:14:22
jergul,

I'd say all three of those, especially the second and third, are distinct possibilities. For the first, it depends on how vengeful the government forces want to be. This isn't like other offenses, where the goal was to clean up an area in order to free up forces that could then be deployed elsewhere.

As for Turkey, three million refugees is more than enough already. They have little incentive to accept more.

"The alternative to a negotiated settlement would indeed be more offensives."

If that happens, this war isn't ending any time soon. I don't think Assad is fully cognizant of his limitations.
jergul
large member
Mon Sep 03 10:46:29
Ruggy
You just have to look at a map to see the goal is to clean up an area in order to free up forces that could then be deployed elsewhere.

Three incentives I can think of. One of them is the fact that all refugees can return home once idlib is cleared. 2ndly, it is a rather big and highly profitable industry those feet across frontiers, and 3rdly, SDF bending the knee is certainly in Turkish interests.

Operations would continue for years until a settlement is reached. I think Assad is quite aware of his limitations. But not in an intensive way. See the last year for the modus.

But I don't really see it playing out with much in the way of systematic violence.
Rugian
Member
Mon Sep 03 13:12:25
jergul,

The problem is that the usual government tactic of coercing the population into accepting reconciliation agreements isn't going to work here. There are no more dumping grounds to send rebels to, and the bulk of the combatants are hardcore Islamists. SAA is going to be tied up here for a while.

Whatever its attitude toward the SDF, Turkey is not inclined to be a friend to Assad, as its prior conduct has made clear. As for the refugees, I doubt many would want to be repatriated to now-destroyed communities, to say nothing about their feelings toward the Syrian government. In particular, any additional refugees created as a result of an Idlib offensive are probably going to be opponents of Assad's rule. This is a problem Turkey is going to be stuck with long after (if) Idlib falls.

Turkey has made it abundantly clear that it does not want an offensive to take place, for multiple reasons.

The problem with Assad is that I don't think it's clicked for him that he serves at the pleasure of the Russian president. If a year from now Russia says that it will only support reconciliation talks with the SDF, I don't trust him not to try and go with the military option anyway.

To be frank, I don't have a high opinion of Assad's ability to carry out large scale operations for much longer. Having to ban conscript-age males from leaving the country and filling the ranks of the offensive forces with ex-rebels doesn't paint a flattering picture of either manpower or morale. Much of the country remains in ruins and several "red" parts of the map are only nominally under the control of the government. He probably has the ability to besiege Idlib into surrender, but beyond that I'm not betting on him.

jergul
large member
Mon Sep 03 13:55:00
Ruggy
Coercing the population? They have had 6 years of rebel rule and generally welcome the regime. Who wouldnt after 6 years of militant governance?

There will be dumping grounds until the last enclave is liquidated. Perhaps the rebels from the final enclave might be offered free passage to that patch of desert in the south around a border crossing. Who knows.

I think we can safetly state that Turkey's security arrangements have changed. That it will outright block all refugees is to me extremely unlikely.

Syria has been demobilizing troops for months now. It can easily sustain the level of operations it does because it controls the pace of operations.

Putting former rebels in the frontlines makes perfect sense in the context of the current conflict. Moral continues to improve as does the combat efficiency of the regime's forces.

You have noted it is shrugging off significant missile strikes, right?

We will see how things go. I am thinking reconciliation will be the outcome.

Hot Rod
Revved Up
Mon Sep 03 17:42:36

Idlib?

I had no idea that Libs had an Id.

Too bad the ego and the super-ego has zero effect on it.

jergul
large member
Tue Sep 04 00:44:26
President Bashar al-Assad of Syria must not recklessly attack Idlib Province. The Russians and Iranians would be making a grave humanitarian mistake to take part in this potential human tragedy. Hundreds of thousands of people could be killed. Don’t let that happen!

Guess who.
Hot Rod
Revved Up
Tue Sep 04 01:26:12

He has already killed a million of his people.

What's a few hundred thousand more?

jergul
large member
Tue Sep 04 01:37:05
HR
Just no.

About 450k have been killed in total. Perhaps as many as 150k civilians. The rest combatants.

And the death tolls are way down from the chaotic days ending with Russian involvement.

Right now about

500 Government forces, 800 insugents, and 400 civilians

Are being killed per month. You can double those figures when major operations are going down.

Syrian refugees are being accepted for political reasons now. Not because there is any actual need (or if there is a need, then all kinds of other countries have populations in equal need of protection).
jergul
large member
Tue Sep 04 01:44:37
Here is the death toll by year

2011 - 8k (mostly regime)
2012 - 49k (mostly regime)
2013 - 73k (mostly regime)
2014 - 76k
2015 - 55k (mostly rebels)
2016 - 49k (mostly rebels)
2017 - 33k (mostly rebels)
2018 - 25k (mostly rebels) ESTIMATE
jergul
large member
Tue Sep 04 01:45:07
The estimate for 2018 is a projection for entire year.
jergul
large member
Tue Sep 04 06:27:37
BEIRUT, LEBANON (1:15 P.M.) – The Russian Air Force has begun their largest bombing campaign of the year in the Idlib Governorate, a military source told Al-Masdar News this afternoon.

According to the source, at least ten Russian Sukhoi jets launched dozens of airstrikes over the southern and western parts of the Idlib Governorate.

The source said the Russian Air Force specifically targeted the Jisr Al-Shughour District, including the towns of Al-Shughour, Mahambel, Basnqoul, Zayzooun, Ziyarah, Jadariyah, Kafrdeen, Al-Sahn, Saraseef, and dozen others.

The source added that the Russian airstrikes numbered over 50 thus far.

With the large Russian bombardment, the Syrian Arab Army’s (SAA) long-awaited offensive is bound to start in the next few days.
Hot Rod
Revved Up
Tue Sep 04 09:55:44

jergul - About 450k have been killed in total. Perhaps as many as 150k civilians. The rest combatants.


You are saying 300,000 combat deaths.

The United States military death from all causes was 407,300.

http://en....alties#Human_losses_by_country


One of us has some faulty math methinks.

jergul
large member
Tue Sep 04 09:59:07
wtf?
Paramount
Member
Tue Sep 04 10:08:37
Lol. I think you are looking at the wrong war, Hot Rod.
Forwyn
Member
Tue Sep 04 10:14:35
Faulty math can be corrected by realizing that 2018 != 1945.
Hot Rod
Revved Up
Tue Sep 04 14:27:44

No, I am wondering how 300,000 combat deaths can be ascribed to a small civil war when America lost 407,300 combat deaths in a World War when they fought in two theaters.

jergul
large member
Tue Sep 04 17:59:12
The Japanese were preoccupied in China and the Germans in the USSR would be the short answer.
Hot Rod
Revved Up
Tue Sep 04 18:56:48

Not all of them.

Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Wed Sep 05 01:40:47
No not all of them, about 400k US KIAs of them.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Wed Sep 05 01:48:14
Civil war = all dead from 1 country. It isn’t rocket surgery Hot Rod.

Syria is a small country, with no open habitable wilderness, just cities, rivers and farmlands. When war breaks out, people stay in the cities, and the battles are over the cities. For a better comparison add japanes combat deaths in the American theater to the 400k.
jergul
large member
Wed Sep 05 02:33:15
Combat deaths military pacific theater

US - 112k
Philippeness - 27k
National Chinese - 1320k
Communist Chinese - 160k
Commonwealth (UK) - 82k
Other (USSR/Dutch)- 25k
Japan/Korea - 2121k

3 737 000 combat deaths military compared to 300 000 combat deaths military in Syria.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Wed Sep 05 03:48:28
Absurd numbers, even though I have read them a thousand times, every time I see WW1 and WW2 casualty numbers I am shocked for a minute. Let’s never do that again.
jergul
large member
Wed Sep 05 04:04:44
I did not even list civilians. Lets do that!

China: 18 000 000
India: 2 000 000
Japan: 393 000
Dutch east indies: 4 000 000 (really?)
Philippines: 1 000 000


Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Wed Sep 05 04:20:24
To come full circle and show how bloody civil strife can be, the Chinese under Mao killed 2-3 times more of their own people than the Japanese did.

Rugian
Member
Wed Sep 05 06:43:19
jergul,

I thought we'd be beyond recycling Russian propaganda by now. Siege, starve, and surrender is like the very definition of coercive methods; let's not insult each other by denying basic realities.

"There will be dumping grounds until the last enclave is liquidated."

Disagree. Unless Turkey is open to allowing rebels to be transported to areas under the control of its allies, it does the government no good to offer relocation ten miles down the road.

"I think we can safetly state that Turkey's security arrangements have changed. That it will outright block all refugees is to me extremely unlikely."

Turkey is in the middle of a financial crisis and there is growing resentment against the current batch of refugees. There are reasons to suggest that it will be less tolerant of free movement across the border this time around.

"Syria has been demobilizing troops for months now. It can easily sustain the level of operations it does because it controls the pace of operations. "

I did see that the government has started to move 8-year veterans to the reserves. That only speaks to the fact that manpower issues are no longer quite at the crisis levels they were a few years ago.

The SAA lost like half of its total size to casualties and defections. Assad himself still being in power is likely due solely to Russia openly intervening in 2015. After eight years of nonstop fighting, I'm not inclined to believe that the manpower problems that have plagued the government have suddenly disappeared.

"Putting former rebels in the frontlines makes perfect sense in the context of the current conflict."

Not the sentiment of the reports I've seen on that.

"You have noted it is shrugging off significant missile strikes, right?"

From who, the US? If so, [citation needed] for "significant."
Rugian
Member
Wed Sep 05 06:49:11
"We will see how things go. I am thinking reconciliation will be the outcome."

The SDF is certainly up for it; Assad is not. At this point its a question of how effective his handlers are at actually handling him.
Dukhat
Member
Wed Sep 05 09:40:09
Now would be a good time to do a surprise attack against the Russians and destroy their entire force projection capabilities. THey'd lose their one aircraft carrier and their best air force units.

Hot Rod
Revved Up
Wed Sep 05 10:00:53

Not sure that would be a 100% good idea.

Not sure when the Russia/China war games will start, but with 300.000 of their troops involved this might not be the optimum time to attack either one of them.



Forwyn
Member
Wed Sep 05 10:02:46
Should send them a pallet of cash and a thank-you note.
murder
Member
Wed Sep 05 13:11:06

"Now would be a good time to do a surprise attack against the Russians and destroy their entire force projection capabilities. THey'd lose their one aircraft carrier and their best air force units."

Sure ... if you've got the stomach for that.

jergul
large member
Wed Sep 05 13:14:21
Dukhat
Or Russia could do a suprise attack on you and knock out all your carrier fleets (including those at dock), every military base and air field overseas and major fleet repair facilities.

Now would be a good time to do that.
jergul
large member
Wed Sep 05 13:14:59
Its like you don't get that nuclear weapons exist.
swordtail
Anarchist Prime
Wed Sep 05 13:56:03
"Its like you don't get that nuclear weapons exist."

white helmets don't fear nukular weapons.
swordtail
Anarchist Prime
Thu Sep 06 13:29:05
Armenia to send troops for Assad’s upcoming Idlib offensive, academic claims

http://www...dlib-offensive-academic-claims
swordtail
Anarchist Prime
Thu Sep 06 14:57:22
French army chief: ready to strike Syria if chemical weapons used

http://www...cal-weapons-used-idUSKCN1LM198
Sam Adams
Member
Thu Sep 06 15:10:24
Fuck up those terrorists please.
Sam Adams
Member
Thu Sep 06 15:11:20
Try not to use chemical weapons though. Because its so much nicer to just shoot them. The un said so.
swordtail
Anarchist Prime
Fri Sep 07 10:50:44
http://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dmf7TxYUwAA80A0.jpg
Dukhat
Member
Fri Sep 07 13:59:00
Just shoot down all of Russia's shit anyways and say it was an accident. If Russia escalates things, stop buying their oil and gas and watch them come begging back to the table.
jergul
large member
Fri Sep 07 15:06:56
Because oil and gas is what we will be worrying about after the US loses 4 carrier groups.
swordtail
Anarchist Prime
Sun Sep 09 20:25:07
US Says Assad Has Approved Gas Attack In Idlib, Setting Stage For Major Military Conflict

http://www...-stage-major-military-conflict
swordtail
Anarchist Prime
Sun Sep 09 20:36:18
US senator claims Britain's MI6 is planning a fake chemical weapons attack on Syria

http://www...mi6-assad-russia-a8529681.html
jergul
large member
Mon Sep 10 05:25:37
Assad has approved a type of chemical attack that could easily be staged by others?

Sounds legit.

Ban cholrine. Its a WMD.
murder
Member
Mon Sep 10 09:59:34

"US senator claims Britain's MI6 is planning a fake chemical weapons attack on Syria"

Not a US Senator. A Virginia State Senator.

swordtail
Anarchist Prime
Wed Sep 12 09:02:39
Germany mulls joining US-led airstrikes in Syria – report

A report suggests Germany's Bundeswehr could soon be called upon to take part in airstrikes on Syria, if another chemical attack were to occur. While Angela Merkel's CDU supports the idea, others remain wary.

http://www...kes-in-syria-report/a-45424607
jergul
large member
Wed Sep 12 13:46:57
Signs of offensive being put on hold as forces divert to finishing off ISIS in Deir Eizor.
jergul
large member
Wed Sep 12 13:48:11
The reason for that should be obvious. Too many signals of intervention if the regime commences major ground operations in Idlib now.
jergul
large member
Wed Sep 12 13:48:49
(In addition to US supported forces on the offensive in the East too).
Forwyn
Member
Wed Sep 12 14:16:26
Western politicians chomping at the bit. Already prepping for a "chemical attack", Syrian or otherwise being irrelevant.
Hot Rod
Revved Up
Wed Sep 12 16:45:24

jergul - And the death tolls are way down from the chaotic days ending with Russian involvement.


Is that why he is still using gas against his people?



jergul
large member
Wed Sep 12 16:51:09
HR
Lets put it in terms you can understand: That is fake news.
Hot Rod
Revved Up
Wed Sep 12 16:53:53

Yeah, right.

jergul
large member
Wed Sep 12 17:09:09
My best guess is that the US is suffering from bombers remorse and wished it had done more damage when it attacked a few times before. So wants a redo.
jergul
large member
Wed Sep 12 17:11:31
BEIRUT, LEBANON (11:20 P.M.) – The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) carried out a powerful attack in the eastern countryside of the Idlib Governorate, tonight, after taking a brief pause to observe a silent ceasefire.

According to a report from the provincial capital of Hama, the Syrian Arab Army heavily targeted the jihadist defenses around the town of Umm Rajim in eastern Idlib.

The report added that the Syrian Army’s attack targeted the trenches and hideouts of the jihadist rebels inside the town of Umm Rajim.

This is the first big attack carried out by the Syrian Arab Army against the jihadist rebels in either the Idlib or Hama governorates in the last 24 hours
Rugian
Member
Thu Sep 13 07:45:03
"Assad’s ‘Final Offensive’ in Syria May Be Postponed for Lack of Troops
Roy Gutman
09.10.18 5:03 PM ET

ISTANBUL – The big Syrian government offensive to recapture rebel-held Idlib province—which the United Nations fears could cause the deaths of thousands and displace a million civilians—is on hold for want of forces on the ground to coordinate with Russian air power, according to military leaders in the Syrian opposition.

The Syrian regime has at most 25,000 troops based in the region, including about 5,000 reinforcements, some of whom are conscripts drawn from surrendered rebel enclaves, whose reliability in battle remains to be tested. They will face more than 100,000 motivated defenders, many of whom were forced there from other regions and have nowhere else to go.

But the critical missing element is Lebanese Hezbollah and Iranian-backed militias, which had served as President Bashar al-Assad’s ground force in Aleppo and the Damascus region after its army had largely collapsed due to desertions. There is no sign these militias are preparing for battle, and Iran appears to have little interest in joining in a bloody encounter with high casualties.

...

Columb Strack, a Middle East analyst for HIS Market (the parent company of Jane’s defense publications), concurred that the offensive may well have been delayed. “It’s very likely to happen. It’s just a question of when,” he told The Daily Beast. And when it does, “it will be a slow-burning thing,” given the discrepancy in the size of the forces. “It will be step-by-step, retaking villages, one at a time, relying on indiscriminate airstrikes to displace or force their opponents to surrender.”"

http://www...e-postponed-for-lack-of-troops
Rugian
Member
Thu Sep 13 07:48:08
Which incidentally answers the question of "why would Assad resort to using WMDs now when he's on the verge of winning?"

Because he's not on the verge of winning. Because he may very well need to resort to extreme measures of he doesn't want this to become a long, drawn-out conflict, throughout which he will be vulnerable to the outside world.
jergul
large member
Thu Sep 13 07:59:05
Ruggy
"According to military leaders in the opposition".

Why would it rely on indiscriminate airstrikes if the argument is too few troops to exploit Russian airpower?

It is by definition a long, drawn out conflict.

My best strategy would be to salami slice Idlib. Isolate pieces. Demand reconciliation or evacuation for the cut off piece. Repeat.

Sad to see you drinking the WMD cool-aid.
Rugian
Member
Thu Sep 13 09:28:52
Jergul,

Indiscriminate bombings have the effect of undermining local morale and degrading both infrastructure and overall living standards. Its part of that whole coersion thing that you don't acknowledge.

There have been plenty of indications that Assad is facing a manpower shortage; this merely reinforces that perception. Eight years into a bloody conflict that started out with mass defections is not something easily worked around, hence the fresh conscript drives and ex-rebel impressments.

All of us here are in agreement in regards to the role that Iran and Hezbollah have played in keeping the Syrian government afloat. If they're going to stay out of an Idlib offensive, that's not good at all for Assad.

I trust US claims of imminent WMD use as far as I can throw them. I also trust that Bashar al-Assad is the kind of murderous piece of shit who would use WMDs in a second if he thought it would help him.
Rugian
Member
Thu Sep 13 09:45:27
And talking about drinking the koolaid, you still buying that British intelligence just straight up fabricated the Duma attack?

You only get to claim that you're the victim of false flag ops so many times.
swordtail
Anarchist Prime
Thu Sep 13 09:51:52
lol
Rugian
Member
Thu Sep 13 09:59:17
Yeah, lol. If WMDs are used in Idlib, that'll be three different occasions of three different rebel groups in three different regions of the country that decided to gas themselves in order to frame the otherwise very trustworthy governments of Syria and Russia. Very lol indeed.
swordtail
Anarchist Prime
Thu Sep 13 10:05:02
someone's pining to earn their white helmets badge it seems.
Rugian
Member
Thu Sep 13 10:10:24
Some of us are capable of simultaneously opposing Western intervention and still being able to recognize bullshit when we hear it. I'm sorry that you're only capable of doing one or the other.
swordtail
Anarchist Prime
Thu Sep 13 10:11:39
lol
swordtail
Anarchist Prime
Thu Sep 13 13:08:09
Assault on Idlib risks 'scattering terrorists' abroad: Paris

http://tri...ering-terrorists-abroad-paris/
jergul
large member
Thu Sep 13 13:19:54
Ruggy
7 years of rebel occupation is more than enough to undermine local moral. My point was however that Russia employs precision munitions.

Syria has a conscription based system. So yah, 18 year olds are conscripted every year. What you are actually seeing is Syria focusing on reconstruction and not total mobilization.

A shortage suggests you mean Syria does not have the manpower for the task at hand. The task being to reconciliate Idlib.

Contain rebels (check)
Carve off territory and offer reconciliation or evacuation.

There is more than enough manpower for that. Including hezbolla and groups trained and funded by Iran.

Reconciliation offers a lot more chances than simply joining the SAA. The carrot there is mostly unit cohesion (groups join as a unit). It saves individual members from getting a job in the reconstruction industry.

The rebels are not actually gassing themselves are they? They are staging episodes and spilling trace elements of chlorine about for inspectors to sniff out.

The British role would be more that of grooming (our hands are tied unless there is a chemical attack *nudge, nudge, wink, wink* But I have no doubt western financing is behind both the media equipment and the disinfection supplies needed.

As if chlorine was a restricted substance. Global production is measured in the hundreds of thousand tons per year.
murder
Member
Thu Sep 13 13:56:34

"Which incidentally answers the question of "why would Assad resort to using WMDs now when he's on the verge of winning?""

Rugian: Aside from getting Assad's forces bombed, what have the supposed gas attacks accomplished for Assad?


"Because he's not on the verge of winning. Because he may very well need to resort to extreme measures of he doesn't want this to become a long, drawn-out conflict, throughout which he will be vulnerable to the outside world."

Don't be stupid. Assad could simply burn the place to the ground.

The only people that benefit from "gas attacks" are the people who want an excuse for intervention.

And if Assad was going to use chemical weapons, then why only a little? Why not gas the fuck out of the enemy?

Like I said, don't be stupid.

Forwyn
Member
Thu Sep 13 14:41:30
Apparently the intelligent, calculating former MD who knows that dozens of foreign military satellites are scoping out Idlib looking for misdeeds to justify their chickenhawk mutterings for war only favors surgical use of chlorine that he can sloppily attempt to cover up after. As if Western forces wait for OPCW reports.
swordtail
Anarchist Prime
Fri Sep 14 08:36:11
Harald Doornbos‏Verified account @HaraldDoornbos · 18h18 hours ago
More


Interesting. Son of Al-Qaeda co-founder Abdullah Azzam, Huthaifa Azzam, calls on opposition in Idlib not to raise black/jihadi flags during tomorrow's protest but only revolution flags because there are international journalists on the ground reporting on the protests.

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