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Utopia Talk / Politics / Guess the race
jergul
large member
Tue Sep 11 05:02:21
http://pro...dterm-election-forecast/house/

80% chance of demcrats taking it (projection)

The Third Reich
Member
Tue Sep 11 05:19:29
This is terrible for the white man.
The Third Reich
Member
Tue Sep 11 05:23:00
Rugian, forwyn, Aeros....we need to do a rally
Forwyn
Member
Tue Sep 11 09:54:49
kek

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
jergul
large member
Tue Sep 11 10:21:45
Forwyn
Indeed, the organization correctly predicted Trump had a significant chance of winning the presidency.

Next question.
Forwyn
Member
Tue Sep 11 10:48:01
Electoral votes
Hillary Clinton 302.2
Donald Trump 235.0


tumbleweed
the wanderer
Tue Sep 11 10:53:53
and part of the problem was polled people being embarrassed to admit they were voting for Trump

what does that say?
jergul
large member
Tue Sep 11 11:05:07
Forwyn
You are coming across as someone who actually wants a trump controlled senate and congress.

My Goodness.
swordtail
Anarchist Prime
Tue Sep 11 11:21:15
"what does that say?"

blame canada
Forwyn
Member
Tue Sep 11 13:40:48
jergul
You are coming across as someone who has trouble reading into neutral skepticism of modern polling and its analysis.
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Tue Sep 11 13:53:12
'margin of error' is definitely a sham... as we all suspected from the small sample sizes despite what Big Statistics&Probability claims
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Tue Sep 11 14:09:20
^and not because Trump won w/ 30% chance or whatever, that's fine... just the approval polls that range 32% to 46% or whatever all w/ supposed 3% margins etc.
jergul
large member
Tue Sep 11 15:04:05
Ah, you were aiming for kewl kid detached cynicism. A lot of that going about.

Its more people not understanding probability. At least in the case of fivethirtyeight.

The chance of republicans keeping the house is slightly less than trying to flip two heads in a row.

Impossible? Not at all. But not the most likely outcome.

Probability.
Hot Rod
Revved Up
Wed Sep 12 22:17:47

jergul - 80% chance of demcrats taking it (projection)


You better hope not. It would not be a good thing for the entire world if they win.

Cold Rod
Member
Thu Sep 13 05:23:54
Oh yeah, because Trump is doing a bang up job. You're so dumb.
Hot Rod
Revved Up
Thu Sep 13 09:01:45

Everything is set for search and rescue and search and recovery.

There are enough food and water available for the entire state of North Carolina.

1,000 first responders and the equipment they need are situated in strategic spots so they can go to work as soon as possible. In addition, the volunteer group that has helped out in the past is set to come into the affected area.

The power companies are set to move in and there will be volunteer linemen from other states that are set to come in to help out. They have tons of equipment such as telephone poles and the transfer boxes that usually explode.

Oh, and the insurance companies and FEMA are standing by with the financial aid that folks will need.

Everyone is confident that everything that can be done has been done by City, State, Federal, and volunteer organizations to prepare for the aftermath.


One more thing. President Trump has been accused of transferring FEMA money to a different organization. This is true.

However, the funds that were transferred were left over from last year. By Law, these funds cannot be used for this year's disasters. The funds were transferred in accordance with the law.

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