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Utopia Talk / Politics / Shit going down in Syria 2
Tue Sep 25 09:13:10
John Bolton: "The Israelis have a legitimate right to self-defense against this Iranian aggressive behavior"


Iran is fighting ISIS and other sunni extremists in Syria. How is this an "aggressive behavior" and how does this entitle Israel to claim self-defense?

Is John Bolton saying that Israel is ISIS?

"It [The Trump administration] also says U.S. forces will not leave Syria until Iran leaves."

But if Syria has invited Iran and wants Iran to be there?

Has the US received an invitation by Syria to be in Syria? Has Israel/ISIS received an invitation?
Tue Sep 25 09:22:10
"We think introducing the S-300s to the Syrian government would be a significant escalation by the Russians and something that we hope, if these press reports are accurate, they would reconsider," US National Security Advisor, John Bolton, said on Monday.

"We have American forces in the area we're concerned about," Bolton said.

Netanyahu is outraged about the S-300 so he ordered his minions Bolton and Trump to speak up. None of them seems to understand that Russia is concerned about the security of its forces in Syria.

The easy obvious solution here is that Israel stop its illegal attacks in Syria.
Tue Sep 25 09:22:56
*easy AND obvious
large member
Tue Sep 25 09:39:05
Mkay, here is the stuff Russia is supplying in response to the IL-20 downing.





2 systems Antey-2500 (aka s-300).4-6 launchers in each.

Kuweires AB (Aleppo) along with Pantsyr S1, BUK and S-200s

(more speculative) Abu al-Duhur AB (Idlib) Main FOB for future Idlib offensive. Is undergoing considable force build-up.
large member
Tue Sep 25 09:41:23
You will note that my placement of the s-300ds keeps Israel far outside of their radius.
large member
Tue Sep 25 09:43:04
Also. Top grade research. It will be days before Nato countries are as updated as you are :).
large member
Tue Sep 25 09:45:10
And piss-poor link

Tue Sep 25 10:20:37
Nato could hire me as an consultant. You could be my assistant, Jergul.
Tue Sep 25 10:21:24
* a consultant
Sam Adams
Tue Sep 25 10:28:40
So far in the last few years the soviet bloc has shot down: 1 unaffiliated airliner with 300 innocent dead. One of their own scouts with 15 dead. One israeli f16 with 0 dead.

large member
Tue Sep 25 12:14:18
Half your carriers are currently docked for repairs and maintenance.

large member
Tue Sep 25 13:24:15
Anyway, its all actual three dimensional chess.

I am rather certain Russia and Syria are setting up a pretty comprehensive access denial sphere covering Latakia, Tartous, Idlib, Hama, and Aleppo Governates.

Leaving more porous Governates elsewhere and still respecting Israel's security.

The concern is not so much regime changing interventions as it is disruption of ongoing combat operations when Idlib operations begin.

(Which is incidentally why I know current US carrier status. 1 is off Newfoundland practicing stuff with the Cannucks, the rest are docked up in the US and SE Asia. The US is definately not positioned to strike Syria in earnest).
Tue Sep 25 13:28:03
Trump at the UN:

“Iran’s leaders sow chaos, death and destruction,” Trump told the gathering in the green-marbled hall. “They do not respect their neighbors or borders or the sovereign rights of nations.”

Lol, he is blaming Iran for what Israel and Saudi Barbaria are doing. That this clown is even allowed to speak at the UN is incredible. Although, I feel better that they all laughed at him.
Anarchist Prime
Tue Sep 25 13:36:28
he's just parroting obama,dubya,clinton,dubya sr,reagan etc etc.
large member
Tue Sep 25 13:42:54
Military aircraft shot down by "soviet bloc" systems (including copies)

2 fighters, 2 combat drones, 2 fighters damaged (3 of these aircraft were F-15s)

2 helicopters, 2 combat drones, 1 fighter (an f-16).

1 fighter (Mirage)

3 Fighters (2 f-16s, 1 f-15), 2 helicopters, 1 combat drone.

9 fighters, 3 transports, 1 scout, 6 helicopters
Sam Adams
Tue Sep 25 13:49:39
"Half your carriers are currently docked for repairs and maintenance. "

Right. Thats normal for peacetime in a working country. The soviets generally are in port between 90 and 99% of their time.

And your last post is simply made up.

Russia troll is troll.
large member
Tue Sep 25 14:01:09
You really should try moving into the 21st century. 2/3rds of your carriers should be operational with 1/3rd at sea. You are forgetting about at least 2 wars.
large member
Tue Sep 25 14:35:44
Ok, I checked. For carriers you have two significant overruns on scheduled maintenance. The LHDs have the opposite problem with unscheduled repair needs.

The reason why you are shy two carriers at sea (an LHD breaking in f-35s is the only aviation vessel in the ME - off the Gulf of Aden).
large member
Tue Sep 25 20:08:03
The wars you forgot were Donbas and Yemen. The numbers are correct.
large member
Wed Sep 26 02:58:16
I am moving one of the systems from Abu al-Duhur AB to Hama airbase. I was unaware of air defenses in Masyaf.

The picture is incomplete. Either I am missing, or the master plan is a bit ad-hoc. A combination of both I wager.
Anarchist Prime
Wed Sep 26 10:04:02
U.S. Pulling Some Missile-Defense Systems Out of Mideast

Hot Rod
Revved Up
Wed Sep 26 10:21:06

Sorry, I'm not a subscriber.

Wed Sep 26 11:07:31
Google---> U.S. Pulling Some Missile-Defense Systems Out of Mideast

Take you pick for article information.
large member
Wed Sep 26 12:08:32

The Masyat SAMs are the S-350 (a low budget S-400 lacking the versitality of the S-400).

So a few more UAV kills for "soviet systems".
Anarchist Prime
Wed Sep 26 12:40:09
Syrian Strategic Researches‏ @Syrian_SR · 46m46 minutes ago

 More

Sources reported that in addition to the 6 S-300/S-400 battalions
The #SAA will receive from #Russia
20 Buk M2
36 Pantsir S1/S2
25 Tor M2-U
15 S-125 2M

large member
Wed Sep 26 15:52:15
2 battalions, not 6. At least for now.

I think it patently obvious that Russia is using a "boil the frog" (thanks seb) approach to arming Syria.

High end air defence bubbles in the North slowly solidifying and will push closer and closer to Israel as time passes. But it will move east before it will move south.

This is not to say that air defences in Damascus will not improve, but there is a hard limit if keep Israeli airspace virginal is the goal.

The main problems are FFI and other command integration stuff.

Affordable missiles.

The s-300ds role plays towards affordability. The farther the stand-off range, the more cost effectively stand-off munitions can be dealt with (it makes sense to use a 250k missile to shoot down a 1.5 million dollar tomahawk, but not a 45k dollar laser guided bomb).

But its all playing out like I said. The more the IDF does, the better the argument for modernizing Syria's air defences. Downing the IL-20 just pushed the envelope faster than would otherwise have been the case.
Thu Sep 27 00:32:33
Yes, but what is the efficacy of these systems vs the airforce of Israel. 1 plane downed so far. Was that one shot down even?
large member
Thu Sep 27 00:34:00
Cutting a bit more through the drama.

Russia has said it is sending 1 s-300 system within two weeks. That makes sense and likely matches available trained manpower. More will arrive later. 6 was the original order, but Syria has already sold one of them to Egypt.

The other stuff looks like things Russia would have supplied regardless. Except for the Tors.

The Tors turn Syria into a showcase of all Russian SAMs up for sale.

My take on it is that Russia is now looking to optimize its performance.

I mentioned cost effective missile use.

Now it wants to showcase its arsenal. So needs to fully integrate Syrian assets with its own stuff. This has already been announced along with systems to create a hostile electronic environment.

The missing piece is Awacs and tankers based deep. For example in Iran.

So, yah. Anything passing through Tartous and Latakia will face the full brunt of what Russia has to show.

Look at it as a sales pitch. Russia will need to recoup its funding for all this somehow.
large member
Thu Sep 27 00:34:55
The actual missiles being fired may have syrian flags, but will for all practical purposes be Russian.
large member
Thu Sep 27 01:58:22
I plotted in the hypothetical 4 systems (aka battalions)

Sam Adams
Thu Sep 27 09:56:52
"Yes, but what is the efficacy of these systems vs the airforce of Israel. "

Utterly useless against near surface aircraft, useless against advanced modern aircraft such as the f35. Nearly useless against cruise missiles. They would be a bit of a concern for older aircraft at high altitude such as 15s and 16s. They can hit drones well, but drones are expendable.

Bottom line, soviet bloc air defenses have never held off US or IDF aircraft in wars for more than a few days or caused more than a tiny fraction of western aircraft losses. Power lines and maintenance are scarier than russian weapons.
Average Ameriacn
Thu Sep 27 10:13:03
Israel will simply destroy all s300.
large member
Thu Sep 27 12:44:12
lol, you saw the shoot and scoot attack the Israelis did that caused the downing of the IL-20 and can still claim they are totally useless?

The problem is the economics. That aircraft have to stand off (see link) is a given. But the cost of making a precision guided munition attack needs to be less than the cost of interception + damage incurred.

Everything Russia is doing is working on balancing that equation.
Sam Adams
Thu Sep 27 12:54:01
Yes jergul. Even against small numbers of unstealthy aircraft at high altitude your air defenses not only failed to hit any idf aircraft, but instead shot down one of your own scout planes.

large member
Thu Sep 27 13:41:52
And yet, the F-16s did not dare fly any closer. And that was facing 1960s era s-200ds.

Things are now on an order of magnitude more difficult and will get a hell of a lot worse.

Which admittedly is extremely redundant.

Keep an eye on the ball. The point of air defences in a low intensity conflict is to keep aircraft the hell away so they cannot use optically guided munitions.

Mission accomplised in so far as Latakia, Tartous, Hama and Aleppo goes.

Now its just about cost effectiveness in terms of destroying stand-off weapons.

Be smert, boyo.
large member
Thu Sep 27 13:43:34
And Idlib of course.
large member
Thu Sep 27 13:46:55
The Syrian conflict. God's way of teaching me Syrian political geography.
large member
Thu Sep 27 14:59:58
Enough SAM porn now?

My take on it strategically was that the US et al. where in fact signaling major attacks on the SAA if chemical weapons were used, or spilled, or planted or whatever.

This actually has some merit. Idlib does have significant rebel capability. If only someone could seriously degrade the SAA, then Aleppo could be recaptured, advances towards Hama made etc.

A shot at turning the war around instead of going for a meaningless head-shot (kill Assad now and all you get is a martyr. He is replacable).

I think that concept has become completely unfeasible. An Idlib offensive could begin before xmas.
large member
Fri Sep 28 15:33:15
© David Cohen/Flash90 via AP

MOSCOW, September 28. /TASS/. Russian reinforced electronic warfare system in Syria is capable of tracking planes at airdromes in Europe and Israel, Vladimir Mikheyev, an adviser to the first deputy director general of Russia’s Concern Radio-Electronic Technologies (KRET), told TASS on Friday.

According to Mikheyev, to reinforce the system’s aviation component specialized jammers could be deployed along with ground-based systems. "It is also planned to increase the naval taskforce with electronic warfare and air defense systems," he said.

Lavrov, UN chief discuss efforts to resolve Syria, Ukraine issues

"And all of this will be integrated under a common control system and we will know not only that someone has entered the airspace in this region but also that somewhere a plane is only operating on the runway, be it in Israel or Saudi Arabia or even in Europe, and we understand that is under control of the integrated aid defense system," he said.

Once a plane is spotted at an airdrome, the reinforced radio-electronic warfare system automatically assigns a target number to it and offers various options: "either radio-electronic reconnaissance, attenuation or electronic suppression or even, if we see that the situation is critical, fire to effect," he said.

Following the loss of the Russian Ilyushin-20 plane in Syria that was used by Israeli warplanes as cover to avert Syrian missile defense, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu pledged that radio-electronic warfare systems in Syria would be reinforced.



Like I said. Missiles may have Syrian markings, but overall fire control will be Russian.

Its an interesting hybrid model. Ironically, a system is being put into place where all parties would prefer that aircraft are not shot down.

The economics would suggest that strategic SAMs represent a force in being, more than an actual destructive force.

Its good enough that planes keep their distance.
large member
Sat Sep 29 00:08:08
During a House Armed Services Committee subcommittee hearing on September 26, Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs Robert Karem accused the Assad government and Russia of turning Idlib into the terrorist stronghold in Syria.

“There is no dispute that Idlib has become a hornet’s nest of multiple terrorist organizations. Regrettably, this is the product of the Russian and Regime approach to consolidating control on the ground in Syria. They have used de-escalation zones and local negotiated deals to purge areas in Syria and used Idlib as a dumping ground. And they have allowed the free transit of the worst terrorists to go to Idlib,”

True enough.
large member
Sat Sep 29 03:30:25
BEIRUT, LEBANON (8:45 A.M.) – The delivery of the S-3000 surface-to-air missile defence system to Syria has already begun, revealed Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov at a press conference following his headline speech at the UN General Assembly on Friday in New York.

“As we have publicly stated, Israel assured us multiple times that they will maintain the de-confliction channel with us which is similar to the one we have with the USA. That is what we are currently demanding from Israel,” Lavrov began.

“When Israel raised its concerns regarding the Iranian or pro-Iranian units which were deployed virtually on the demarcation border-line with the Golan Heights we reached an understanding. Moreover, by that time the southern de-escalation zone had been liberated from terrorists,” he said.

“The Iranian units withdrew more than 100 km as we had been asked by the Israelis, by the Americans. And instead of them the units of the Syrian army took up positions at the Golan Heights, along the demarcation line, then the UN observers, to be more correct, the UN Disengagement Observer Force officers returned there. Our military police are currently helping them. We satisfied all the concerns raised by Israel about the self-security in the area near the Golan Heights. We kept all our promises,” he continued before turning his attention to the S-300 system.

“The delivery has been started already. And as President Putin said, after that incident […] the measures which we will take will be devoted to ensure 100 percent safety and security of our men in Syria,” said Lavrov.

BEIRUT, LEBANON (9:20 A.M.) – For the first time in several years, the Syrian-Jordanian border is open to the public, a government report said this morning.

According to the report, the Nassib Crossing in the southern countryside of the Dara’a Governorate has been opened just two months after the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) took control of this site.

The Syrian and Jordanian governments have been in talks for weeks about reopening the Nassib Crossing; however, ‘Amman was working on some technical details before they could open it to the public.

With the Nassib Crossing open to the public, trade and commerce will resume between Damascus and ‘Amman for the first time in several years.

This move is especially important for Syria, who has suffered immensely under economic sanctions from the United States and the European Union.

Moreover, the absence of trade with Jordan had crippled the economy in Damascus, as millions of people previously relied on regional goods from ‘Amman.
Sat Sep 29 04:33:21
Mods, the putinbot is spamming threads again.
large member
Sat Sep 29 04:45:45
Aw, don't be sad, bro.
Sat Sep 29 05:45:45
I hope you didn't get offended, since we are friends playing by the same standards for ridicule. It is mostly a man thing as I am sure you have picked up over the course of your life, busting balls and such.
State Department
Sat Sep 29 06:34:36
"the S-3000 surface-to-air missile defence system"

Advanced prototype. A mimetic polyalloy.

You are targeted for termination. The S-3000 will not stop until it complete its mission. Ever.
large member
Sat Sep 29 06:41:46
3000 ain't no big thing. An export version of the S-300 VM is branded "Antey-4000"

Anarchist Prime
Tue Oct 02 13:36:12
Syrian Army activates first S-300 battery in Syria – report

Syria News
Last updated Oct 2, 2018

The first battery of the Russian-made S-300 air-defense missile system has come into service, Russian media reported on Tuesday.

“According to local sources, the first battery of the anti-aircraft complex S-300 came into service with the Syrian Arab Army” ANNA news agency tweeted.
Russian Minister of Defense said to send new anti-aircraft missiles to Syria, a week after Syrian forces accidentally shot down a Russian aircraft Il-20 during an Israeli air strike, on September 17.

Russia has blamed the incident on Israel and said that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) used the Russian Il-20 as a shield. The Israeli side has refuted these statements, saying that they had notified the Russian side in due time.

How Many S-300 battalions Russia will send to Syria?

The Russian daily “Kommersant” said Moscow would send about four battalions of S-300 air defense to Syria within two weeks, according to an informed source.

According to Kommersant, The S-300 air defense missile system would cover facilities on the Syrian coast and monitor the Syrian border with Israel as well as with Jordan, Iraq and Lebanon.

The source explained that the number of battalions of the S-300 missile system, which will be sent to Syria could rise to 6 or 8 battalions, depending on developments and conditions as needed.

Will Israel be capable of destroying S300 missiles in Syria?

Israeli military expert told the Russian online newspaper “Vzglyad” that Israel will not attack the S300 missiles due to political – not technical – reasons.

“Technically, everything is possible. But this is not the case. The main issue lies in that supplying Syria with S300 missiles might bring Russian and Israel on the brink of a direct military confrontation”, he commented.

“There is a clear understanding in Israel that S300 missiles will completely close the Israeli airspace”, said Uzi Rubin; founder of the Israeli agency for developing the missile defense system and a co-founder of HETZ anti-missile system.

Sam Adams
Tue Oct 02 15:46:11
You know whats going down in syria? Il20s. Badum ching!
large member
Tue Oct 02 19:21:03
What's going down in South Carolina? F-35s. Badum ching.
large member
Tue Oct 02 19:32:48
MOSCOW, October 2. /TASS/. It will take three months to train Syrian specialists to use Russian S-300 air defense systems, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said on Tuesday at a Russian Security Council meeting chaired by President Vladimir Putin.

"We have finished personnel recruitment and have begun to train them," he said.

So far, Russia has supplied Syria with 49 equipment pieces as part of delivery of the S-300 air defense system, Shoigu said.

"In conformity with the presidential decision, we have begun to carry out a number of measures to reinforce Syria’s air defense systems in order to ensure better protection for our servicemen. We have completed the delivery of S-300 systems. It included 49 pieces of equipment, including radars, control vehicles and four launchers," he told a Russian Security Council meeting chaired by President Vladimir Putin.

According to the minister, the delivery was finished a day ago.



A single battery.
large member
Wed Oct 03 07:38:54
Deployed somewhere in the Latakia-Tartus-Homs Triangle (cities) and deployed as an integrated part of the Russian air defences.
Average European
Wed Oct 03 08:20:08
It's going down like a 20yo Julie Swetnick at her 10th high school gang rape party.
large member
Tue Oct 09 21:23:31
Or 3 battalions (24 batteries) Pfft. The quality of information sucks and the range is rediculous. But I would go with a PMU#? type base on vidoes.


BEIRUT: Syrian President Bashar Assad granted general amnesty Tuesday to both army deserters within Syria and those outside the country, a move that could boost the return of refugees who fled violence in their war-torn country.

The decree, published by state media, said the amnesty did not include "criminals" and those on the run unless they turn themselves in to authorities. Deserters in Syria have four months to do so; those abroad have six months.

Since Syria's conflict began, in March 2011, tens of thousands of people have either deserted their posts or defected and joined rebels trying to remove Assad from power. The amnesty also includes draft dodgers.

The new amnesty does not include army defectors, some of whom are still fighting against the government, mostly in the northwestern province of Idlib, the last major rebel stronghold in the country.

The amnesty could encourage the return of refugees, some of whom have not been able to go back home, because they were blacklisted for running away from military service. Other men have feared that if they return they would be punished or forced to join the military.

Aron Lund, a Syria expert with the Century Foundation, wrote in a tweet about the amnesty: "Can't overestimate how important this is for many Syrians: conscription has been a major, major driver of exile, and draft issues_own or in family_stop many non-political refugees from returning."

More than 5 million Syrians have fled their country since the conflict began, while millions of others have been internally displaced. The seven-year war has also killed over 400,000 people and left more than 1 million wounded.

The decree comes at a time when government forces have managed over the past year to capture wide areas once held by insurgents, including in southern Syria and the eastern suburbs of the capital, Damascus. In some areas, the government reached reconciliation deals with rebels who were given amnesty in return for amnesty.

The flash point in Syria is now in Idlib, where insurgents have been withdrawing their heavy weapons from a demilitarized zone agreed upon between Turkey and Russia last month. The deal sought to avoid a wide government offensive in the province.

On Monday, Turkey's official news agency reported that Syrian rebels had finished withdrawing all their heavy weapons from the front lines by way of implementing the deal reached last month, which is expected to demilitarize a stretch of 15-20 kilometers along the front lines by Oct. 15.
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