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Utopia Talk / Politics / Democrats poll lead evaporates
Aeros
Member
Thu Oct 04 11:46:24
Nationwide lead has gone from 10% to 2% and within the 4% error margin. Collapse is attributed primarily to a 10% total population shift against the Democrats by male voters, as well as surging Republican interest in the mid term election that now exceeds Democrat interest.

https://www.npr.org/2018/10/03/654015874/poll-amid-kavanaugh-confirmation-battle-democratic-enthusiasm-edge-evaporates

Poll: Amid Kavanaugh Confirmation Battle, Democratic Enthusiasm Edge Evaporates

Just over a month away from critical elections across the country, the wide Democratic enthusiasm advantage that has defined the 2018 campaign up to this point has disappeared, according to a new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll.

In July, there was a 10-point gap between the number of Democrats and Republicans saying the November elections were "very important." Now, that is down to 2 points, a statistical tie.


Democrats' advantage on which party's candidate they are more likely to support has also been cut in half since last month. Democrats still retain a 6-point edge on that question, but it was 12 points after a Marist poll conducted in mid-September.

The results come amid the pitched and hotly partisan confirmation battle over Brett Kavanaugh's nomination to the Supreme Court. Multiple women have accused Kavanaugh of sexual misconduct when he was in high school and college. He categorically denies all the allegations. The FBI is conducting a supplemental investigation into the accusations that is expected to be wrapped up by the end of this week.

With Democrats already fired up for this election, the Kavanaugh confirmation fight has apparently had the effect of rousing a dormant GOP base.

"The result of hearings, at least in the short run, is the Republican base was awakened," noted Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the poll.

While Democrats and Republicans are now equally enthusiastic about the midterms, the story is very different for key Democratic base groups and independents. While 82 percent of Democrats say the midterms are very important, that's true of just 60 percent of people under 30, 61 percent of Latinos and 65 percent of independents.

Democrats need to net 23 seats to take back control of the House, but if those groups stay home in large numbers, it would blunt potential Democratic gains. With 34 days to go until Election Day, it all points to another election dominated by party activists.

"If there aren't 34 dramatic moments [between now and then], it will be 'my base versus your base,' " Miringoff said. He noted that the Republican move to push Kavanaugh's confirmation forward, despite his unpopularity and that more people believe accuser Christine Blasey Ford than Kavanaugh, appears to be intended to fire up the GOP base in hopes of retaining control of Congress.

"The Republicans' approach has been, and continues to be, all about the base," Miringoff said. "This is their M.O., and that's what we're seeing. That works if turnout is not high."
Aeros
Member
Thu Oct 04 11:46:38
http://www...tic-enthusiasm-edge-evaporates
Sam Adams
Member
Thu Oct 04 11:59:24
If the dems fuck this up and lose to trump a second time, despite being the worst president in a long time, it will be a hilarious collapse. Almost as bad as new york giving up a 3 nothing series lead against boston.
Hot Rod
Revved Up
Thu Oct 04 12:27:12

It would be cool if we ended up with 61 Senators.

Not going to happen of course, but it would be cool.

Forwyn
Member
Thu Oct 04 12:35:12
Democrats are the Falcons at halftime
Hot Rod
Revved Up
Thu Oct 04 12:44:59

I'm not so sure this time. Looks like they painted themselves into a corner.

Dukhat
Member
Thu Oct 04 12:47:54
http://mar...d-Tables_1810021305.pdf#page=3

Among Registered Voters Dems Lead 48-42 in the poll. +6

Among Registered Voters who consider the elections very important; Dems lead 51-42. +9

Neither is a likely voter screen which they didn't use in this poll for some reason.

Definitely seeing some enthusiasm gains in Republicans, but meh. Kavanaugh is a drunken blowhard and he's about to get confirmed anyways.
Hot Rod
Revved Up
Thu Oct 04 12:51:31


I would be willing to bet that your actions when you go out on Saturday night are much worse than Kavanaugh's. ever was.



Sam Adams
Member
Thu Oct 04 13:56:45
"Democrats are the Falcons at halftime"

Lol that too
Hot Rod
Revved Up
Thu Oct 04 14:13:20

It's set.

Committee vote tomorrow.

Full Senate, Saturday. Looks like it will be sometime in the evening.


A suggestion, a great movie. 'Advise and Consent' an Otto Preminger film with an all-star cast.

Dukhat
Member
Thu Oct 04 17:03:10
I wonder if Aeros still wants revenge against Democrats over Blasey Ford?
werewolf dictator
Member
Thu Oct 04 19:23:07
slate

http://amp...lican-women-voter-turnout.html

The Kavanaugh Hearings Have Women Fired Up … to Vote Republican


The change is particularly striking when comparing women in the two parties. Of all the cohorts measured by the poll (including Independent men and women), Democratic women are the only group to display less enthusiasm for the midterms this week than they did in July. Meanwhile, Republican women seem invigorated. In July, 81 percent of Democratic women said the November elections were very important, compared to 71 percent of Republican women. Now, Republican women are 4 percentage points likelier to view the midterms that way (83 percent to 79 percent). That’s a 14-point swing in female voters’ interest in the midterms—after the hearings, and in Republicans’ favor.
kargen
Member
Thu Oct 04 22:30:54
Republicans need to start paying attention to how many first time voters are registering. People who register usually vote in the first election they can in huge numbers and most vote for Democrats.
The Democrats are registering new voters in record numbers this year. Those new voters are not going to be disenfranchised or persuaded not to vote no matter how the Supreme Court nomination goes or really on anything else most voters tend to look at.
The polls could be off if they are not accounting for new voters and could be off in the Democrats favor by a lot.
Aeros
Member
Fri Oct 05 08:56:54
"I wonder if Aeros still wants revenge against Democrats over Blasey Ford"

You mean Mazie Hirono, and yes, I do.
Aeros
Member
Fri Oct 05 08:57:46
It was the straw that convinced me to vote for Corey Stewart, even though that dude is a disgusting gun thumping tea tard.
jergul
large member
Fri Oct 05 08:59:55
Aeros
Useful idiot, much?
McKobb
Member
Fri Oct 05 09:13:20
What's odd is a lot of older black women I know are fired up about Kavenaugh. They are on his side. They say things like, "We came up in the 60's and if you went to those parties you were down and knew what's up. My parents wouldn't let me go to those parties! But if you went you knew what's up. Them girls knew!"
werewolf dictator
Member
Fri Oct 05 10:35:22
http://twitter.com/TitaniaMcGrath/status/1045715343098998785
hood
Member
Fri Oct 05 10:50:17
"We came up in the 60's"

They stupid. Kav was born in '65. That's highschool grad in '83, attending college during the mid 80s. The fuck they talking about the 60s like it's relevant or some shit?
Dukhat
Member
Fri Oct 05 11:21:34
I get if you don't care about democrats but going out to straight up vote for a Nazi is pretty fucking retarded.
McKobb
Member
Fri Oct 05 17:33:39
Talkin bout 'facts', boy go snort a bucket of assholes
hood
Member
Fri Oct 05 18:15:26
Naw gurl, snortin assholes was so 90s. Get wit it.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Sat Oct 06 02:26:00
It is interesting that liberal men surge ahead of the women due to the Kavenaugh issue, can we call this the White Knight effect?
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Sat Oct 06 02:30:28
I think it is the first time we see the white knight overcompensation effect so clearly in poll numbers. A lot of molestors and rapist in that lot, liberal women beware.
Pillz
Member
Sat Oct 06 02:35:31
But aren't all men?
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