Utopia Talk / Politics / Democrats poll lead evaporates

Aeros rank	Thu Oct 04 18:46:24 2018 Nationwide lead has gone from 10% to 2% and within the 4% error margin. Collapse is attributed primarily to a 10% total population shift against the Democrats by male voters, as well as surging Republican interest in the mid term election that now exceeds Democrat interest. https://ww...tic-enthusiasm-edge-evaporates Poll: Amid Kavanaugh Confirmation Battle, Democratic Enthusiasm Edge Evaporates Just over a month away from critical elections across the country, the wide Democratic enthusiasm advantage that has defined the 2018 campaign up to this point has disappeared, according to a new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll. In July, there was a 10-point gap between the number of Democrats and Republicans saying the November elections were "very important." Now, that is down to 2 points, a statistical tie. Democrats' advantage on which party's candidate they are more likely to support has also been cut in half since last month. Democrats still retain a 6-point edge on that question, but it was 12 points after a Marist poll conducted in mid-September. The results come amid the pitched and hotly partisan confirmation battle over Brett Kavanaugh's nomination to the Supreme Court. Multiple women have accused Kavanaugh of sexual misconduct when he was in high school and college. He categorically denies all the allegations. The FBI is conducting a supplemental investigation into the accusations that is expected to be wrapped up by the end of this week. With Democrats already fired up for this election, the Kavanaugh confirmation fight has apparently had the effect of rousing a dormant GOP base. "The result of hearings, at least in the short run, is the Republican base was awakened," noted Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the poll. While Democrats and Republicans are now equally enthusiastic about the midterms, the story is very different for key Democratic base groups and independents. While 82 percent of Democrats say the midterms are very important, that's true of just 60 percent of people under 30, 61 percent of Latinos and 65 percent of independents. Democrats need to net 23 seats to take back control of the House, but if those groups stay home in large numbers, it would blunt potential Democratic gains. With 34 days to go until Election Day, it all points to another election dominated by party activists. "If there aren't 34 dramatic moments [between now and then], it will be 'my base versus your base,' " Miringoff said. He noted that the Republican move to push Kavanaugh's confirmation forward, despite his unpopularity and that more people believe accuser Christine Blasey Ford than Kavanaugh, appears to be intended to fire up the GOP base in hopes of retaining control of Congress. "The Republicans' approach has been, and continues to be, all about the base," Miringoff said. "This is their M.O., and that's what we're seeing. That works if turnout is not high."
Aeros rank	Thu Oct 04 18:46:38 2018 http://www...tic-enthusiasm-edge-evaporates
Sam Adams rank	Thu Oct 04 18:59:24 2018 If the dems fuck this up and lose to trump a second time, despite being the worst president in a long time, it will be a hilarious collapse. Almost as bad as new york giving up a 3 nothing series lead against boston.
Hot Rod rank	Thu Oct 04 19:27:12 2018 It would be cool if we ended up with 61 Senators. Not going to happen of course, but it would be cool.
Forwyn rank	Thu Oct 04 19:35:12 2018 Democrats are the Falcons at halftime
Hot Rod rank	Thu Oct 04 19:44:59 2018 I'm not so sure this time. Looks like they painted themselves into a corner.
Dukhat rank	Thu Oct 04 19:47:54 2018 http://mar...d-Tables_1810021305.pdf#page=3 Among Registered Voters Dems Lead 48-42 in the poll. +6 Among Registered Voters who consider the elections very important; Dems lead 51-42. +9 Neither is a likely voter screen which they didn't use in this poll for some reason. Definitely seeing some enthusiasm gains in Republicans, but meh. Kavanaugh is a drunken blowhard and he's about to get confirmed anyways.
Hot Rod rank	Thu Oct 04 19:51:31 2018 I would be willing to bet that your actions when you go out on Saturday night are much worse than Kavanaugh's. ever was.
Sam Adams rank	Thu Oct 04 20:56:45 2018 "Democrats are the Falcons at halftime" Lol that too
Hot Rod rank	Thu Oct 04 21:13:20 2018 It's set. Committee vote tomorrow. Full Senate, Saturday. Looks like it will be sometime in the evening. A suggestion, a great movie. 'Advise and Consent' an Otto Preminger film with an all-star cast.
Dukhat rank	Fri Oct 05 00:03:10 2018 I wonder if Aeros still wants revenge against Democrats over Blasey Ford?
werewolf dictator rank	Fri Oct 05 02:23:07 2018 slate http://amp...lican-women-voter-turnout.html The Kavanaugh Hearings Have Women Fired Up … to Vote Republican The change is particularly striking when comparing women in the two parties. Of all the cohorts measured by the poll (including Independent men and women), Democratic women are the only group to display less enthusiasm for the midterms this week than they did in July. Meanwhile, Republican women seem invigorated. In July, 81 percent of Democratic women said the November elections were very important, compared to 71 percent of Republican women. Now, Republican women are 4 percentage points likelier to view the midterms that way (83 percent to 79 percent). That’s a 14-point swing in female voters’ interest in the midterms—after the hearings, and in Republicans’ favor.
kargen rank	Fri Oct 05 05:30:54 2018 Republicans need to start paying attention to how many first time voters are registering. People who register usually vote in the first election they can in huge numbers and most vote for Democrats. The Democrats are registering new voters in record numbers this year. Those new voters are not going to be disenfranchised or persuaded not to vote no matter how the Supreme Court nomination goes or really on anything else most voters tend to look at. The polls could be off if they are not accounting for new voters and could be off in the Democrats favor by a lot.
Aeros rank	Fri Oct 05 15:56:54 2018 "I wonder if Aeros still wants revenge against Democrats over Blasey Ford" You mean Mazie Hirono, and yes, I do.
Aeros rank	Fri Oct 05 15:57:46 2018 It was the straw that convinced me to vote for Corey Stewart, even though that dude is a disgusting gun thumping tea tard.
jergul rank	Fri Oct 05 15:59:55 2018 Aeros Useful idiot, much?
McKobb rank	Fri Oct 05 16:13:20 2018 What's odd is a lot of older black women I know are fired up about Kavenaugh. They are on his side. They say things like, "We came up in the 60's and if you went to those parties you were down and knew what's up. My parents wouldn't let me go to those parties! But if you went you knew what's up. Them girls knew!"
werewolf dictator rank	Fri Oct 05 17:35:22 2018 http://twitter.com/TitaniaMcGrath/status/1045715343098998785
hood rank	Fri Oct 05 17:50:17 2018 "We came up in the 60's" They stupid. Kav was born in '65. That's highschool grad in '83, attending college during the mid 80s. The fuck they talking about the 60s like it's relevant or some shit?
Dukhat rank	Fri Oct 05 18:21:34 2018 I get if you don't care about democrats but going out to straight up vote for a Nazi is pretty fucking retarded.
McKobb rank	Sat Oct 06 00:33:39 2018 Talkin bout 'facts', boy go snort a bucket of assholes
hood rank	Sat Oct 06 01:15:26 2018 Naw gurl, snortin assholes was so 90s. Get wit it.
Nimatzo rank	Sat Oct 06 09:26:00 2018 It is interesting that liberal men surge ahead of the women due to the Kavenaugh issue, can we call this the White Knight effect?
Nimatzo rank	Sat Oct 06 09:30:28 2018 I think it is the first time we see the white knight overcompensation effect so clearly in poll numbers. A lot of molestors and rapist in that lot, liberal women beware.
Pillz rank	Sat Oct 06 09:35:31 2018 But aren't all men?
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