Utopia Talk / Politics / Hurricane Michael

murder Member	Tue Oct 09 19:17:27 Headed for the Florida panhandle in general and Panama City more specifically. Expected to make landfall as a Category 3 ... 120mph 953 MB ... and still falling Less than 24 hrs until landfall.
murder Member	Tue Oct 09 19:21:39 Lets hope that lots of Trump supporters die or lose everything.
Dukhat Member	Tue Oct 09 20:01:20 ^
Hot Rod Revved Up	Tue Oct 09 20:03:37 It is only a city of 100,000 dick breath.
kargen Member	Tue Oct 09 21:04:25 The Trump supporters will be the ones in platoon boats after the hurricane hits rescuing all the liberal idiots that tried to ride it out with zero survival skills.
murder Member	Tue Oct 09 22:07:38 125mph 947 MB ... and still falling
Rugian Member	Tue Oct 09 22:31:31 I hope lots of Cuban refugees get wiped out. They're not real Americans after all.
McKobb Member	Tue Oct 09 22:42:38 Supposed to be a cat5 by landfall. I got some med friends in pcb.
Sam Adams Member	Tue Oct 09 22:43:40 Its time to kick ass and flood panama city.
murder Member	Wed Oct 10 05:17:17 140mph 943 MB ... and still falling?
murder Member	Wed Oct 10 05:23:40 "I hope lots of Cuban refugees get wiped out. They're not real Americans after all." Not in that part of Florida. Sorry! :o) "2.42% of the population were Hispanic or Latino of any race." -- wikipedia
murder Member	Wed Oct 10 05:27:44 "Supposed to be a cat5 by landfall." I doubt it gets that strong by landfall. And your friends should have gotten the fuck out. Major hurricanes are nothing to fuck with. They almost certainly won't die or get injured, but the storm and the aftermath is just not fun.
murder Member	Wed Oct 10 07:10:14 145mph 933 MB ... and still falling?
Hot Rod Revved Up	Wed Oct 10 07:20:07 It is now a Cat 4.
Hot Rod Revved Up	Wed Oct 10 07:23:15 Could be close to a Cat 5 when it hits later today.
Sam Adams Member	Wed Oct 10 08:14:43 The rapid intensification of a vicious little young windstorm just before landfall. Muhahahahaha. Perhaps one in 20 canes do this but when they do its always fun.
murder Member	Wed Oct 10 08:47:46 Do you think it makes Cat 5 at landfall?
murder Member	Wed Oct 10 08:50:37 Word is that the pressure is still falling. I think I heard 927 MB on a local tv station.
Hot Rod Revved Up	Wed Oct 10 08:57:52 Close to a cat 5 or an actual cat 5? Probably makes little difference. Do you live in that area murder?
murder Member	Wed Oct 10 09:10:50 No, I'm in South Florida.
Sam Adams Member	Wed Oct 10 09:21:19 Pressure is 930mb or so. The 927mb report is a flight level extrapolation that tend to be a couple mb too high. Still she is making a run at cat 5!
Sam Adams Member	Wed Oct 10 09:22:43 Satellite presentation looks great
Sam Adams Member	Wed Oct 10 09:23:18 Too high=i meant too strong
Sam Adams Member	Wed Oct 10 09:28:08 For reference another evil little windstorm named andrew was a 922mb cat 5 so we are getting close.
Sam Adams Member	Wed Oct 10 10:07:12 929 on the last eye drop. Muhahahahaha. Its time for a good ole panama city buttfucking.
Hot Rod Revved Up	Wed Oct 10 10:08:36 Looks like a lot of people in the area decided to stay. Unfortunately, they may need a lot of body bags.
Sam Adams Member	Wed Oct 10 10:16:39 Just cleaning up the gene pool with 15 feet of surge.... *snaps catchy tune*
Sam Adams Member	Wed Oct 10 10:19:54 Its a town of what... 100k people with 6 lanes of traffic leaving and about 15 hours of warning for high end hurricane threats. 0 excuse for anyone who dies. Still too early to say whether ground zero will be pan city proper or its eastern suburb mexico beach.
Sam Adams Member	Wed Oct 10 10:26:30 Radar velocities in the strongest portion of the eyewall agrees with other data on a 135 knot storm. Borderline 5. Muhahahaha.
Sam Adams Member	Wed Oct 10 10:30:14 Central pressure down to about 924mb! Muhahahaha
Sam Adams Member	Wed Oct 10 10:30:14 Central pressure down to about 924mb! Muhahahaha
murder Member	Wed Oct 10 10:42:45 923 MB according to the last update. Any chance of a last minute eye wall replacement?
murder Member	Wed Oct 10 10:51:19 This was from 3 hours ago. http://twitter.com/MattSeedorff/status/1050009734940712960
murder Member	Wed Oct 10 10:51:46 1 hour ago. http://twitter.com/ReaganMatt/status/1050031938679988224
Sam Adams Member	Wed Oct 10 10:57:59 No chance of ewrc. That takes many hours to start. Shes strengthening to the end. Andrew 2.0.
Sam Adams Member	Wed Oct 10 11:32:53 919mb final drop. Beats andrew. Mexico beach being destroyed. Tyndal afb and panama city in trouble too.
tumbleweed the wanderer	Wed Oct 10 11:37:22 this correspondent in Apalachicola just retreated inside for safety http://twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/1050057530532089856 supposedly an additional 6 ft rise in water possible there
murder Member	Wed Oct 10 11:54:30 Trump is going to be so confused when they tell him the hurricane made landfall in Mexico Beach. :o)
Hot Rod Revved Up	Wed Oct 10 12:02:29 ERR... So am I. :,(
McKobb Member	Wed Oct 10 14:30:36 Luckily my uncle sold his condo in Panama City Beach last month. Shit getting real.
Average European Member	Wed Oct 10 15:27:23 So if we want to guess the body counts now, do we have to inflate our figures by a good order of magnitude in light of the Maria/Puerto Rico mortality study method? I'll go with 500. If Fred has a heart attack 18 weeks from now, that's totally because of Michael.
Hot Rod Revved Up	Wed Oct 10 16:11:32 The Puerto Rico study is invalid. Their entire infrastructure was substandard due to kickbacks.
Rugian Member	Wed Oct 10 16:27:13 I'll go with 5 actual deaths from the hurricane and 40,000 deaths staged by the deep state to make Trump look bad.
Paramount Member	Wed Oct 10 16:47:23 I think 12 or 17.
Hot Rod Revved Up	Wed Oct 10 16:51:29 That's what I was going to guess. :,( I'll go with zero deaths. And 666 killings before the end of the year paid for by Soras and carried out by the Rev. Al Sharpton mob.
murder Member	Wed Oct 10 16:51:44 This isn't a small island territory far away from the mainland, and it's not below sea level. I doubt there will be many deaths. Likely < 50.
Hot Rod Revved Up	Wed Oct 10 16:53:34 Rugian took my original guess. Oh well, that happens to me a lot because Great Minds think alike.
Hot Rod Revved Up	Wed Oct 10 17:01:13 Almost forgot what I came in here to post. The storm got down to 919 mb. The third most intense storm to ever hit The United States.
Sam Adams Member	Wed Oct 10 18:50:07 "Likely < 50" Concur. Only idiots die in canes and even then it helps to have surge. While the rednecks of FL are pretty dumb they have experience with canes and there are not many in the target area.
Aeros Member	Wed Oct 10 20:31:51 I think the fact that there was such a sudden intensification means there will be more deaths then usually. Even I wasn't really paying attention to this one until recently. And FFS, its STILL a Hurricane, hours after landfall.
Dukhat Member	Wed Oct 10 20:59:22 There's lots of hot water for it to get raw energy from. My parents are in the gulf area and they still get hot 98 degree days even this late in the year. Before summer would actually end around September. But can't talk even a little bit about climate change or Sam will come up with his usual retarded spiel about being a weather expert.
McKobb Member	Wed Oct 10 21:04:10 When I was a kid you could fry eggs on PCB concrete.
Sam Adams Member	Thu Oct 11 12:14:37 You also need cold air aloft cuckhat which occurs less often under global warming. The net result is nearly 0 change in hurricanes. Anyway, mexico beach damage shots are coming in. The west end of this town is where the strongside eyewall hit and damage is consistent with cat 4/5 storm surge. About 85% of well built wood frame homes have been wiped clean to the foundation, with debris carried away to some other location.
Sam Adams Member	Thu Oct 11 12:18:26 The 10 rows or so of homes closest to the beach are mostly gone. Cat ~5 surge is a real mofo.
BREAKING NEWS Member	Sun Oct 14 05:07:33 http://www...bly-Damaged-Beyond-Repair.aspx Tyndall F-22s, Left Behind Before Michael Hit, Possibly Damaged Beyond Repair 10/12/2018 More than a dozen F-22s were left behind as Hurricane Michael bore down on the base Oct. 10. Now, in Michael's wake, many of those are damaged, and some beyond repair, at a cost of more than $1 billion, Air Force officials said. Chief of Staff Gen. David Goldfein canceled Friday afternoon meetings and was preparing to fly to Tyndall to personally assess damage to the base and the aircraft. Air Combat Command chief Gen. James “Mike” Holmes was also preparing to visit Tyndall. The F-22s left behind could not fly for either mechanical or safety reasons, said a spokeswoman, who also said all the hangars on base were damaged. Aerial video showed roofs and siding torn apart by savage winds and some hangars suffered severe structural damage. “We anticipate the aircraft parked inside may be damaged as well, but we won't know the extent until our crews can safely enter those hangars and make an assessment,” the spokeswoman said. The loss is significant but not devastating. “The Air Force remains capable of executing its combat mission across the world with aircraft from other bases, as well as those that were evacuated from Tyndall in advance of the hurricane,” she said. The storm caused “catastrophic damage” across Tyndall, with all buildings from the flight line and beyond damaged, and all base housing rendered unfit for occupancy. Wing Commander Col. Brian Laidlaw said in a statement Friday the base was “better than yesterday, and that is how it is going to continue to be. We will continue to persevere.” He called on airmen who had fled the base to go to their nearest military installation for medical help. Air Force Personnel Centers at bases across the country have volunteered to assist as possible. Holmes said in a Friday video statement that many airmen in the area don’t have electricity or phone service, and so information needs to be delivered by word of mouth. “To the airmen out there affected by the hurricane, please be safe, look after your families, look after each other, and know that we’re working as hard as we can to return Tyndall to normal ops,” he said. USAF aircraft and units from across the country immediately responded to begin Tyndall’s long road to recovery. The 23rd Special Tactics Squadron from nearby Hurlburt Field arrived at Tyndall on Thursday afternoon to clear and establish the runway at 7 p.m., with the first aircraft arriving six minutes later, according to the Air Force. US Transportation Command’s Joint Communications Support Element from MacDill AFB, Fla., and the Florida Air National Guard’s 290th Joint Communications Support Squadron deployed to restore communication. C-17s from Travis AFB, Calif., and JB Lewis-McChord, Wash., were among the first aircraft in to carry supplies and support search and rescue, according to Air Mobility Command. The 621st Contingency Response Group from Travis responded to help evaluate the flight line and stand up operations. The 822d Base Defense Squadron at Moody AFB, Ga., deployed on Thursday to help provide security to the damaged base. The Georgia Air National Guard’s 116th Air Control Wing deployed 23 airmen to help clear roadways impacted by the storm in South Georgia. At Tyndall, one F-22 could be seen in aerial footage taken the morning after the storm struck. The empennage of the airplane was visible through the missing roof of a hangar where at least five QF-16 target drones and several propeller-driven aircraft had also been sheltered. One of the QF-16s appeared to be resting on top of another, and three more were apparently pushed together by wind or water. The F-22 was surrounded by debris. A still photograph of another damaged hangar, circulating on the internet, showed an apparently intact F-22 within. A Facebook page called “Air Force Forum” carried a message from someone identifying themselves as a member of the 43rd Fighter Squadron. “Four 43d F-22s were left behind to ride out the hurricane,” the anonymous poster wrote. “One of them was scheduled to leave but GABed [ground aborted] after an issue prior to taxi. The other three were jets that couldn't be spun up in time to fly.” Two had been cannibalized for parts, he said, and the others had “issues that couldn't be fixed. They were in hangars that [they] are usually put in according to hurricane plans.” The poster said off-duty maintenance crews were recalled to duty “on Monday afternoon to spin up as many jets as they could to fly, with the last ones launched on Tuesday morning.” The F-22 is the Air Force’s most valuable fighter and the one in shortest supply. Only 187 were built before the program was terminated in 2010 by then-Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates, at roughly half the fleet size needed to meet regional commander requirements. Depending on the estimating method used, F-22s were priced at $120 million to $300 million each, depending on whether research and development expenses are included. The Tyndall damage could mean a loss of $1-$3 billion for aircraft alone. The 43rd is the Air Force’s F-22 training unit and a full-up operational squadron of F-22s — the 95th — is also based at Tyndall. The 43rd’s aircraft are of an early block of F-22s and do not have all the most up-to-date avionics and gear that other Raptor units have. Holmes has said that bringing the training F-22s up to the fully operational configuration is on Air Combat Command’s “wish list,” but is behind other priorities. Lockheed Martin, which built the F-22, has campaigned to get the Air Force to upgrade the training jets, which would allow the fleet to be shuffled around the country. Tyndall’s jets are subjected to high heat, humidity and salt water air from the ocean, while other locations aren’t as hard on the equipment. Tyndall is the Air Force’s “schoolhouse,” where it teaches new F-22 pilots to fly the stealth fighter jet, and its complement is typically about 60 training aircraft. The service reported that it had evacuated its Tyndall F-22s to Wright-Patterson AFB, Ohio. Gates terminated production of the F-22 in 2010, believing the jet was an expensive irrelevancy in a post-Cold War world in which the US was fighting counterinsurgencies in Afghanistan and Iraq. Gates argued that China and Russia would not field 5th-generation jets like the F-22 until the early 2020s. But China’s first J-20 stealth fighter unit went operational last year and Russia has said it will declare its Su-57 stealth fighters operational this year. A RAND study in 2011 found that restarting F-22 production after just three years could produce 75 airplanes at a unit cost of $266 million each, and with nonrecurring costs of just $350 million. However, those costs presumed re-hiring some recently-skilled workers and using vendors who had recently made parts. In early 2017, the Air Force studied the issue again, determining it would cost nearly $10 billion to restore and re-certify the tooling, hire workers and buy 194 airplanes - and it would take seven years to take delivery of the first jets at a unit cost between $206 and $216 million. Lockheed Martin has in recent months talked with potential foreign buyers about buying an F-22/F-35 hybrid that would have the aerodynamic capabilities of the F-22 but the ground attack and situational awareness capabilities of the F-35. Japan was seen as a potential customer for this aircraft, but Lockheed would need permission from the US government to market that aircraft overseas. Export of the F-22 was expressly forbidden by Congress, due to security concerns.
State Department Member	Sun Oct 14 05:47:49 Yeah, let's keep $7.5b worth of grounded fighters at a gulf coast air base during hurricane season. I'm sure it'll be fine.
Seb Member	Sun Oct 14 13:01:05 12 out of 187, not *quite* decimated, but not far off.
jergul large member	Sun Oct 14 14:13:03 "Pressure is 930mb or so. The 927mb report is a flight level extrapolation that tend to be a couple mb too high." 930 is higher than 927. For added credibility, try counting in the right direction.
jergul large member	Sun Oct 14 14:16:23 I will refrain from commenting on the f-22s
Sam Adams Member	Sun Oct 14 22:31:19 If you could read jergul, you would realize i corrected myself instantly jergul. Lol.
Sam Adams Member	Sun Oct 14 22:32:21 "Yeah, let's keep $7.5b worth of grounded fighters at a gulf coast air base during hurricane season. I'm sure it'll be fine." Sounds like the kind of bureaucratic decision that seb would make.
Hot Rod Revved Up	Sun Oct 14 22:55:52 They moved all of the aircraft that could be moved. Those left behind were under maintenance and could not be flown.
jergul large member	Mon Oct 15 01:23:44 Casualties then by design. The aircraft have pretty low operational readiness rates (55% for combat ready aircraft. Much lower for problematic aircraft pulled from operational service).
Pillz Member	Mon Oct 15 01:53:33 Haven't they lost 6 to mechanical failure?
Aeros Member	Mon Oct 15 02:00:36 This one was a beast. People are focusing on Florida, but it also killed 5 people in Virginia due to flooding and falling trees. Never seen a storm keep that much power. It still had tropical storm force winds as it rolled through here and some parts of the state won't have power for another week. Situation in Florida is probably much worse then is being let on considering how bad it is hundreds of miles from ground zero.
jergul large member	Mon Oct 15 02:08:00 Pillz Something like that. I expect renewed nagging to reopen the production line now. Its been discussed before.
Sam Adams Member	Mon Oct 15 10:29:44 "Haven't they lost 6 to mechanical failure?" Just one i believe
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Tue Oct 16 23:33:50 I just saw the aftermath on TV from Florida. Now THAT was a hurricane, suck is LESLIE!
Sam Adams Member	Wed Oct 17 09:56:26 Ya you cant compare the ferocity of a mid latitude storm hitting boston or the canadian maritimes or europe with the pure terror of the inner core of a high end hurricane like michael.
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