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Utopia Talk / Politics / Do You Get It Yet?
Hot Rod
Revved Up
Wed Oct 31 20:59:20

The more you blame him for shit, the more popular he becomes.

tumbleweed
the wanderer
Wed Oct 31 21:13:51
his approval rating has skyrocketed from -42% to -42%
Hot Rod
Revved Up
Wed Oct 31 21:18:55

His approval rating is at 50% now.

Sorry, I can't find the link again.

Hot Rod
Revved Up
Wed Oct 31 21:19:58

That is in your eyes only.

kargen
Member
Wed Oct 31 21:21:34
According to Gallop he is actually down four points.

2018 Oct 22-28 40 54 6
2018 Oct 15-21 44 50 6

the columns are approval disapproval and no opinion.

He is going to have to go up five points in November to be tied for last place.
Hot Rod
Revved Up
Wed Oct 31 21:31:48


I found it.

http://sco...9b0d57a7c437355c72&oe=5C80D1FD


tumbleweed
the wanderer
Wed Oct 31 21:44:32
congrats, that's an image so could be made to say any number plus there's no date on it (however, i concede Rasmussen has had Trump at 50%... however it is also the HIGHEST poll you will find for Trump that has any credibility whatsoever)

FiveThirtyEight uses multiple polls to give an average (each green & orange dot is a poll)... and grades Rasmussen as a C+ (a not great rating):

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/
Hot Rod
Revved Up
Wed Oct 31 22:05:05

Yeah, but the photo is so big you can give him a big fat wet kiss.


Enjoy.

Pillz
Member
Thu Nov 01 00:05:36
Tw still using fivethirtyeight, lmao

tumbleweed
the wanderer
Thu Nov 01 00:11:42
because Hillary didn't win with their 71% chance, they are garbage?

also it's a collection of polls, seems a lot more reasonable than picking the one that makes you look best (as Trump does)
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Thu Nov 01 00:13:32
...and if people are still embarrassed to admit they support Trump, that's still not a good reflection on the 'man'
Pillz
Member
Thu Nov 01 00:46:15
I wish I could post the /pol/ collage with all the fivethirtyeight fails
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Thu Nov 01 01:05:56
if a poll is 48/52 and the 48 wins, is that a fail?

because racking up many 'fails' like that when they have hundreds of polls isn't too shocking

here's their current midterm predictions (w/ a nicely done map of every seat... w/ two viewing options), we can evaluate in a week
http://pro.../house/?ex_cid=midterms-header
werewolf dictator
Member
Thu Nov 01 02:55:54
5 august 2015.. silver gives trump 2% chance of winning primaries [when trump is polling around 25% and over double next candidate]

9 june 2016.. 538 gives hillary 66.8% chance in forecast [default "polls only forecast" model]

12 july 2016.. 538 gives hillary 77.4% chance

30 july 2016.. 538 gives hillary 49.9% chance [trump favorite]

17 august 2016.. 538 gives hillary 88.3% chance

26 september 2016.. 538 gives hillary 54.8% chance

17 october 2016.. hillary 88.1% chance

5 november 2016.. hillary 66.7% chance

8 november.. hillary 71.4% chance



first one was dumb

the rest suggests silver shouldn't have been making confident forecasts far from election day with lots of time for change.. when he got repeated wild fluctuations like that [ie at most claim some "if the election were held today" bs]
werewolf dictator
Member
Thu Nov 01 03:29:57
2016

final rcp average.. clinton +2.1 [these are popular vote margin]
final rasmussen poll.. clinton +1.7
final 538 forecast.. clinton +3.6
actual.. clinton +2.1

getting beat by simple rcp average by 1.5 suggests all the 538 fancy poll ratings and weights and bias adjustments wasn't doing silver much good
werewolf dictator
Member
Thu Nov 01 03:31:18
oops.. final rcp average was really clinton +3.2

so only beat by 0.4
werewolf dictator
Member
Thu Nov 01 03:47:12
i do have to admit 538 was better than rcp averages for individual states [although rcp just says closer races are "toss ups"]
jergul
large member
Thu Nov 01 03:58:58
Amazing Pillz. You play poker. Probability should be second nature.
delude
Member
Thu Nov 01 04:43:55
http://www...t_trump_job_approval-6179.html
werewolf dictator
Member
Thu Nov 01 10:10:33
all i see at delude's link is pelosi favorable at 27.8% and schumer at 28.7%
werewolf dictator
Member
Thu Nov 01 11:08:28
october 31 overview of approval/confidence ratings for major world leaders in own countries

http://www...w-long-will-world-leaders-last

49.0% narendra modi
44.2% donald trump
44% angela merkel
42% shinzo abe
37% vladimir putin
36% theresa may
30% emmanuel macron


other than india.. trump in usa is #1
Delude
Member
Thu Nov 01 11:11:10
"all i see at delude's link is pelosi..."

That's because you're incredibly stupid and I'm sure it's hard to see anything when your head is so far up Trump's anal cavity.
werewolf dictator
Member
Thu Nov 01 11:17:35
probably i only see pelosi and schumer because their numbers stand out so much [while trump is pretty great for world leader]
werewolf dictator
Member
Thu Nov 01 11:22:22
putin's was only one using "confidence" by bloomberg

recent rferl credits him 66% "approval"

http://www.rferl.org/a/the-ups-and-downs/29565761.html
TJ
Member
Thu Nov 01 12:43:54
"Do You Get It Yet?"

Why do you want the you's to get it?
Hot Rod
Revved Up
Thu Nov 01 16:32:48

We 'Make America Great Again'.


:)

Dukhat
Member
Thu Nov 01 18:58:26
Pillz thinks 538 is bad. Forwyn thinks Vox is trash. Cuckservatives are so fucking stupid; some of the best sources are "bad" to them.

Sadly enough Forwyn has actually reproduced. Hopefully a mass shooter takes him and his kids out. It would be karmic justice.
werewolf dictator
Member
Thu Nov 01 23:27:06
if someone wanted to be pollster with amazingly accurate track record.. they should just hire dukhat and predict the opposite of whatever he's saying
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