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Utopia Talk / Politics / New Jobs Report.
Hot Rod
Revved Up
Fri Nov 02 07:37:24


250,000 jobs created in October. WOW WOW WOW WOW WOW


And before you ask, no.

I was not one of them.

Spam Rod
Fri Nov 02 07:47:38
Spammmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm spammmmmmmmmm spammmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
Hot Rod
Revved Up
Fri Nov 02 07:50:07

Varney just said that we had a 3.1% average job growth over the last 12 months.

werewolf dictator
Fri Nov 02 08:03:13
U.S. adds 250,000 jobs in October, wages rise at fastest pace in more than nine years

By Jeffry Bartash
Published: Nov 2, 2018 8:30 am ET

Wages climb 3.1% in past 12 months due to red-hot jobs market


The numbers: The rapidly growing economy generated a robust 250,000 new jobs in October, keeping the unemployment rate at a 48-year low and pushing the increase in worker pay to the highest level in more than nine years.

Economists polled by MarketWatch had forecast a 208,000 increase in new nonfarm jobs.

Yet another strong month of hiring kept the unemployment rate at 3.7%, the lowest rate since 1969.

The creation of more than 20 million jobs since 2010 and the plunging unemployment rate are also delivering higher take-home pay for workers. The amount of money the average employee earns rose 0.2% last month to $27.30 an hour, the government said Friday.

The result: The increase in pay over the past 12 months climbed to 3.1% from 2.8%, touching 3% for the first time since the end of the Great Recession in mid-2009.
Fri Nov 02 08:52:29
They are excellent numbers - but remember they are being built upon the back of the atrocious deficit spending. Especially the tax cuts for corps and the richest people who run those businesses.

That is a recipe for a coming economic disaster of large inflation (to pay the debts), but fed without room to stimulate the economy or fight the inflation.
Hot Rod
Revved Up
Fri Nov 02 16:38:01

If the economy stimulated any more Florida would break off from our continent and end up plugging the Straits of Gibraltar.

Fri Nov 02 16:39:51
Countdown to tw accusing Trump of faking this report for the midterms: 5...4...3...
Fri Nov 02 16:42:46
"The amount of money the average employee earns rose 0.2%"

Absolutely meaningless statistic. Median wage >>>>>>>>> average wage and it isn't even close.
Fri Nov 02 16:42:49
Also...Employment is coming
the wanderer
Fri Nov 02 17:40:44
October 2015 jobs report: +307,000
Fri Nov 02 17:48:54
"The U.S. economy added 271,000 new jobs in October, and the unemployment rate fell to 5%, according to data released Friday morning by the Bureau of Labor Statistics."

That is October 2015.
the wanderer
Fri Nov 02 18:34:54
it was revised upwards later

however 271 still > 250

yet, when it's under Trump its 'amazing', 'no one thought possible', 'never before seen'
werewolf dictator
Fri Nov 02 19:01:31
250k jobs added in 2018 is more amazing than 271k jobs added 2015.. when economists think you are over full employment in 2018 [~3.7% unemployment].. but were under full employment in 2015 [unemployment would be somewhere around 5% and 5.8% depending on month]
werewolf dictator
Fri Nov 02 19:05:03
3.1% increase in hourly wages in year is [even after inflation] 0.9% real increase..

this is when democrats complain real wages are down over 4+ decades since richard nixon..
werewolf dictator
Fri Nov 02 19:08:51
which is more amazing..

increasing speed of car 10 km/h when experts say you are going faster than should be theoretical limit..

or increasing speed of car 11 km/h when experts say you are still going slow and should be able to get car going much faster..
Fri Nov 02 19:41:02
Overgeneralizing one data point. Not only do presidents not affect the economy that much; this is still Obama's economy and a continuation of that recovery.

The real damage is when the business cycle plays itself out and it turns out we spent trillions to pad the pockets of the super rich and have less ability to create stimulus whether they be tax cuts or spending.

It's why virtually no economists supported the tax scam and why no major businesses said they would hire in response to it as well.

Trump's the same shit as Bush and your arguments are the same shortsighted shit arguments Bush supporters used back then too.
werewolf dictator
Fri Nov 02 19:57:37
i argued in "Deficit Balloons to $779 Billion" that trump grew gdp by extra ~$275 billion.. versus grew deficit by $113 billlion in fy 2018..

and that this reduces debt-to-gdp ratio as long as that debt-to-gdp ratio was already going to be over 0.411

q2 2018 ratio for debt held by public.. 0.759
q2 2018 ratio for total public debt.. 1.038

and economy is still underperforming and in hole.. compared to where it should be by any reasonable pre-2008 trendline
werewolf dictator
Fri Nov 02 20:06:33
i think mankiw was in favor of tax cuts in short term.. but against not raising at later time.. and agnostic with plan as actually constructed
werewolf dictator
Fri Nov 02 20:28:55
2021 might be good time to reconsider plans and be more hawkish on annual deficit

whether trump is in last term or democrat is in office
werewolf dictator
Fri Nov 02 20:50:11
since interest rates are rising from what was near zero.. this is also a growing tool one might use in case of future recession
Fri Nov 02 23:41:42
Retard is still citing average wages instead of median wages. :/
werewolf dictator
Fri Nov 02 23:43:03
like it matters much when jeff bezos and 1% don't get money by hourly wages
Fri Nov 02 23:57:15
Holy fucknuts, you don't even understand what the statistic means.

Doubly retarded. You should stick to fluffing.
werewolf dictator
Fri Nov 02 23:58:09
iow.. besides any investments.. such people will be paid in salary [not in hourly wages]
Sat Nov 03 00:11:35
Salary is counted towards the government metric you cited.

Please die in a fire, russian hot rod. You are entirely useless.
werewolf dictator
Sat Nov 03 00:15:51
so salary is calculated for a by-the-hour metric [wages]

citation needed dumbass
werewolf dictator
Sat Nov 03 00:17:11
"Average hourly earnings increased by 5 cents an hour for the month and 83 cents year-over-year, representing a 3.1 percent gain, the best pace since 2009." - cnbc
Sat Nov 03 00:27:31

Feel free to peruse the glossary. Anything that isn't overtime or bonus is included in the average hourly wage calculation.

This would include stock options, employer contributions to healthcare, pensions, etc. Anything you normally get paid.

Odds of the fluffer admitting he had no fucking idea what "average hourly wage" meant? still 0.
Sat Nov 03 00:30:57
One also must wonder of the fluffer has even ever had a job, as anyone who has received a paycheck would know that salaried jobs still have their pay quoted hourly.
werewolf dictator
Sat Nov 03 05:32:41
i concede i was wrong.. hourly average earnings here includes salary conversion estimates



selecting median weekly earnings for 16 and over gives

q3 2017.. 859
q3 2018.. 887

~3.26% weekly earnings increase.. more than 3.1% hourly increase in news [and ~3.26% does not start counting from a bad october 2017].. and at least average weekly hours don't seem to have changed significantly


things to complain about..

*link is not the biggest jump since 2009 [unlike average hourly].. since there are several better year-to-year periods ending in q1 q2 and q3 of 2017
*inflation is eating into increases
*year ending q3 2018 excludes trump's first two quarters which were not good
Sat Nov 03 06:21:01
Using the right data > data that says what you want it to say.
Sat Nov 03 08:51:17
Dilly Dilly to the Twitterman. Amazing how he single highhandedly brought us from the depths of the worst recession in history in less than 2 years. What an amazing man. Already rated the greatest President in the history of the USA.


werewolf dictator
Sat Nov 03 10:32:49
obama final numbers [above] vs trump through 20 months [below]


obama +120,260 per month
trump +190,200 per month
trump wins

real weekly earnings
obama +4% in 96 months
trump +1.8% in 20 months
trump wins

poverty rate
obama -.5 points in 96 months
trump -.5 points in 20 months
trump wins

s&p 500
obama 1.024% increase/month [compounded]
trump 0.937% increase/month [compounded]
obama wins [but trump should win dow]

federal debt held by public
obama +128% in 96 months
trump +9.6% in 20 months
no clear way to decide [imo obama should have run average bigger deficits]

home ownership
obama -3.8
trump +0.6

without health insurance
obama 15.2 million fewer
trump 0.3 million fewer
obama wins
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