Welcome to the Utopia Forums! Register a new account
The current time is Tue Mar 26 17:48:32 2019

Utopia Talk / Politics / FLIP ME A SOY BEAN
CHINA RULZ USA SUCKS
Member
Fri Feb 22 15:32:36
OWNED ODNHWD OWND WODNS OWND WONFD

http://www...-to-go-unsold-2019-2?r=US&IR=T

25 million tonnes of US soybeans will go unsold this year as a direct consequence of the trade war with China




Chinese soybean demand is still low, causing a massive oversupply problem and a major headache for US soybean farmers.

US soybean stocks have risen dramatically as the trade war takes its toll with $7.9 billion lost by US farmers in the past year, according to USDA officials.

Robert Johansson, the chief economist of the USDA said on Thursday that close to 25 million tonnes of US soybeans will go unsold in 2019, as a direct consequence of the trade war.

US agricultural trader Bunge reported a $125 million fourth quarter loss in the soybean market citing "factors related to China trade and demand."

The trade war between Washington and Beijing has had a major impact on the US agricultural space over the past two years with the latest US department of agriculture (USDA) figures shining a light on the difficulties faced by farmers during the dispute.


Robert Johansson, the chief economist of the USDA said on Thursday that close to 25 million tonnes of US soybeans will go unsold in 2019, as a direct consequence of the trade war.

The United States exported 13.5 million tonnes less soybeans to China in the 2019 crop year, said Johansson. US soybean stocks have increased dramatically in the past two years as the trade war takes its toll. Johansson forecast that unsold soybean stocks will more than double to 24.8 million tonnes in 2019.

Speaking at the agency's annual forum in Arlington, Virginia Thursday, Johansson added that trade tensions between the two nations cost soybean farmers $7.9 billion last year, the Financial Times reported.


"The record-high stocks in the US due to the trade situation will take several years to unwind, which will weigh on US prices going forward even with potential China purchase agreements," Johansson said in prepared remarks.

Total shipments of the US-grown oil seeds fell sharply after China hit them with a 25% tariff last July which led to soybeans rotting in fields across the US and a spate of bankruptcies.

China was, until 2017, the largest buyer of US soybeans but has now slipped to fifth, according to the USDA, with a 6% drop in agricultural exports from the US to China last year. Meanwhile, American farmers are putting off buying equipment amid continued uncertainty.

The ongoing confusion about the state of trade talks, set to continue Friday ahead of a March 1 deadline agreed at last November's G20 summit, has left the US farming industry in the dark amid a rollercoaster of expectations.

The impact of the trade conflict was plain to see in the results of major agricultural trader Bunge, which bet big on Brazilian soybeans in light of the trade war's impact on US exports.

The company saw a $125 million loss related to a decline in Brazilian soybean prices in the fourth quarter of 2018, and blamed "factors related to China trade and demand," for the loss.

"Trump’s tariffs might be a time limited event but the change in trading patterns they prompted for China may persist long after the trade war is over," Alfred Evans, founder and CEO of Islan Investments told Business Insider. This is, he said, "not good news for Bunge or any of the US exporters."
Cthulhu
Tentacle Rapist
Fri Feb 22 19:59:57
Author has a major problem with needlessly repeating himself
kargen
Member
Fri Feb 22 20:22:03
The article is also kind of all over the place in general. Bunge invested in Brazilian soy beans and lost so not sure what that has to do with the trade war between US and China.

Kinda sounds like overall the demand for soybeans in China is down. If demand hadn't fallen in China other countries should have done very well exporting soy beans to China?

Soybean farmers might be blaming the trade war for what is just a fluctuation in market demand. If it really is more a demand problem soybean farmers need to start rotating away from soybeans soon.
CrownRoyal
Member
Fri Feb 22 21:23:52

“Soybean farmers might be blaming the trade war for what is just a fluctuation in market demand. If it really is more a demand problem soybean farmers need to start rotating away from soybeans soon.”


Let’s all agree on how retarded the US administration is, pretending that farmers losses were caused by tariffs of the trade war, and not by the Chinese demand. And doing to justify a massive bailout of fucking losers, using taxpayers money



BUSINESS NEWSFEBRUARY 22, 2019 / 8:43 AM / UPDATED 11 HOURS AGO
U.S. farmers receive $7.7 billion in trade aid to date: USDA

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. Department of Agriculture has paid out $7.7 billion so far to farmers, William Northey, Undersecretary for Farm Production and Conservation, said on Friday, in aid designed to offset the negative impact of tariff imposition.

The administration of President Donald Trump has pledged up to $12 billion in aid to help offset losses for crops hit by retaliatory Chinese tariffs imposed in response to Washington’s tariffs on Chinese goods

http://www...aid-to-date-usda-idUSKCN1QB1KM
kargen
Member
Fri Feb 22 21:33:58
I live in a farming/ranching community so my view on subsidies isn't a popular one around here. Might not be quite as bad if the programs were not so abused. An example for five years the government set aside money to pay for crop failure to corn farmers. This was an insane effort to get farmers to plant more corn to be used for ethanol. Double stupid because corn used for cattle feed can be used for ethanol production first and there was already plenty of that. Large corporations leased dry land for five years and planted corn. Corn needs irrigation almost everywhere it is grown in the US. Obviously the corn didn't produce so the corporations cashed in on the government insurance policy making millions. At the end of the lease much of the land needed a few years to recover because of the neglect and abuse.

CrownRoyal
Member
Fri Feb 22 22:58:16
“I live in a farming/ranching community so my view on subsidies isn't a popular one around here. Might not be quite as bad if the programs were not so abused”

Why would you support any taxpayers’ subsidies for the people who were affected by the Chinese lower demand? It is not like they were affected by some government policy, like a new tariffs, according to you. If the farmers can’t anticipate that, nobody should be bailing them out
The Children
Member
Sat Feb 23 00:52:43
u play with fire, u get burned!

kargen
Member
Sat Feb 23 01:45:11
Maybe you do not understand demand? If other countries are not selling soybeans to China obviously it isn't because of a US tariff. And farmers/ranchers gotta anticipate the market just like most other businesses.
CHINA RULZ USA SUCKS
Member
Sat Feb 23 01:55:09
KALGHEN OWNED OWND OWND WODBND WOBNDDN

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-trade-soybeans/china-imports-zero-us-soybeans-in-november-for-first-time-since-trade-war-started-idUSKCN1ON0ER

2 months ago

China imports zero U.S. soybeans in November for first time since trade war started

2 Min Read

BEIJING (Reuters) - China’s soybean imports from the United States plunged to zero in November, marking the first time since the trade war between the world’s two largest economies started that China, the world’s largest soybean buyer, has imported no U.S. supplies.


Instead, China has leaned on Brazilian imports to replace the U.S. cargoes, customs data showed on Monday.


China brought in 5.07 million tonnes of soybeans from Brazil in November, up more than 80 percent from 2.76 million tonnes a year ago, data from the General Administration of Customs showed.

Meanwhile, U.S. imports plunged from 4.7 million tonnes in November 2017 and were down from 67,000 tonnes in October.
CHINA RULZ USA SUCKS
Member
Sat Feb 23 02:13:00
KRAGUNG OWND IWND SWIGD BENAED

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-trade-china-soymeal-insight/inside-chinas-strategy-in-the-soybean-trade-war-idUSKCN1OQ0D2

2 months ago

When his turn to speak came, Mu Yan Kui told the international audience of soy traders that everything they just heard was wrong. Then Mu ticked off a six-part strategy to slash Chinese consumption and tap alternate supplies with little financial pain.

“Many foreign business people and politicians have underestimated the determination of Chinese people to support the government in a trade war,” said Mu, vice chairman of Yihai Kerry, owned by Singapore-based Wilmar International.



Just one prong of the strategy Mu detailed - to slash soymeal content in pig feed - could obliterate Chinese demand for U.S. soybeans if broadly adopted, according to Reuters calculations.

Cutting the soy ration for hogs from the typical 20 percent to 12 percent would equate to a demand reduction of up to 27 million tonnes of soybeans per year – an amount equal to 82 percent of Chinese soy imports from the United States last year.
Paramount
Member
Sat Feb 23 02:21:30
China Will Buy More U.S. Soy in ‘Good News’ for Trade Talks

USDA says China commits to buying 10 million tons more
‘Show of good faith by the Chinese,’ Secretary Perdue tweets

China has committed to buying more U.S. soybeans, a good sign of progress on trade talks between the nations, according to Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue.

“In Oval Office meeting today, the Chinese committed to buy an additional 10 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans,” Perdue said in a tweet Friday. “Strategy is working. Show of good faith by the Chinese. Also indications of more good news to come.”

Since the U.S.-China trade truce began in early December, Chinese buyers have scooped up at least 6.9 million tons of American beans, government data show. People familiar with the transactions have said the Chinese have already bought close to 10 million tons.

News of additional purchases could be what’s needed to kick-start prices that have been trading in a narrow range this year. Prices could trade higher by as much as 10 cents a bushel when the market reopens on Sunday night, according to Rich Feltes, head of market insights for Chicago-based R.J. O’Brien & Associates. May futures settled on Friday at $9.23 3/4 a bushel.

The soybean purchases would dovetail with a proposal by Beijing to buy an additional $30 billion a year of U.S. agricultural products including corn, soybeans and wheat as part of a possible agreement. Still, the announcement caught traders by surprise after Donald Trump said this week that trade talks involved Beijing buying “a lot” of corn.

On Friday, a data dump from the U.S. Department of Agriculture Friday showed net-export sales to China during the six weeks ended Feb. 14 totaled 3.92 million metric tons for the 2018-2019 season. That was basically in line with previously reported sales during the period.

The news of more purchases “could be very reassuring to the market after the disappointing export sales numbers we had come out this morning," said Niko Anderson, a grain broker at SCB Group in Chicago. "And further, this can only be seen as encouraging for the overall trade negotiation."

The good news for American farmers will be at the cost of growers in rival Brazil, where this year’s harvest is underway. The goodwill purchases will probably see Chinese state-run firms buy U.S. supplies at higher prices than soybeans from Brazil, upending market economics.

"Our data today shows that harvest in Brazil is 43 percent complete, which means that they have a lot of soybeans headed to the port to export," said Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist for INTL FCStone. "This cannot be good news for the Brazilian farmer, particularly with demand in China in decline beyond what its state-grain buyers are purchasing for its reserve."

http://www...s-in-good-news-for-trade-talks

Why are the chinese doing this and what do they get in return? I wouldn’t buy a single bean unless the US stopped bullying Huwaei.
CrownRoyal
Member
Sat Feb 23 08:12:04
“Maybe you do not understand demand? If other countries are not selling soybeans to China obviously it isn't because of a US tariff. And farmers/ranchers gotta anticipate the market just like most other businesses.”

Exactly. Why do you say that the program of bailing out the farmers would be ok, under such circumstances? You say that it might not be quite bad, if not for the fraud. You are obviously wrong, it is quite bad, if the falling Chinese demand is the reason for their losses.
kargen
Member
Sat Feb 23 19:27:54
Crown I was talking about agricultural subsidies in general. Don't know how you didn't pick up on that. The example I provided should have clued you in that I wasn't talking about the current problem with soybeans.

Crop insurance is in part funded through subsidies. Much like flood insurance is. The idea isn't completely bad but the way it is implemented is horrible.

"Soybean farmers might be blaming the trade war for what is just a fluctuation in market demand. If it really is more a demand problem soybean farmers need to start rotating away from soybeans soon."
That is from my first post in the thread. I didn't advocate for a bail out I said maybe farmers need to rotate in a different crop.
CrownRoyal
Member
Sat Feb 23 20:40:19
“Crown I was talking about agricultural subsidies in general. Don't know how you didn't pick up on that. The example I provided should have clued you in that I wasn't talking about the current problem with soybeans. ”

Yeah, I’m supposed to know how you quit discussing what we were discussing and now just spouting general bullshit. Actually, I should have known that, you are right.
show deleted posts

Your Name:
Your Password:
Your Message:
Bookmark and Share