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Utopia Talk / Politics / Russia’s next target Sweden or Finland
Average Ameriacn
Member
Fri Mar 22 19:03:00
Good article from senior statesman Michael Sackswilliam. Read full article here:

http://for...rthern-sea-route-baltics-nato/

...
Russia’s most likely target in the near future is either Finland or Sweden; although both are members of the EU, they are not members of NATO. By attacking a non-NATO country, Putin does not risk a proportional response in accordance with Article 5. But by targeting a European country, he can expect to reap the rewards of public approval at home from voters who are desperate for a victory. This is a simple cost-benefit analysis that Putin has conducted, openly, many times before. Each investment of Russian force has paid dividends. Finland and Sweden meet both requirements.

I do not expect Russian tanks to roll into Helsinki or Stockholm unopposed. But it would be relatively simple for Moscow to execute a land grab in a remote Arctic enclave or on a small island like Sweden’s Gotland, considering the strategic capabilities Russia has built on its northern flank. After all, who would go to war over a frozen Baltic island or piece of Finland’s tundra? NATO wouldn’t, but Putin would—because the stakes are higher for him.

Russian aggression on Scandinavian terrirory—in countries everyone in the West considers part of the West—might seem far-fetched. However, it was not long ago that Putin’s annexation of Crimea, which I predicted, struck even Russia hawks as an outlandish doomsday scenario. A few years earlier Russia’s invasion of Georgia, despite my dire warnings, also took the world by surprise.

Former Soviet states, even if they are NATO members like Estonia, are widely perceived as not quite Western. This perception may be inaccurate, but in politics, perception often matters more than reality. For Finland and Sweden, though, perception and reality are aligned. They are not ex-Soviet republics; they are unquestionably part of the West.

From Georgia to Ukraine, Syria, and beyond, Putin’s trajectory has been clear. By defying the norms imposed by the West, he has—in his view—taken progressively greater steps toward emancipating himself. But he will only achieve full emancipation by confronting the West directly.

This may sound shocking, but Putin has shocked the world many times over. The West cannot afford to be caught off guard again.
jergul
large member
Fri Mar 22 19:22:23
Article 5 stipulates that each country treats an attack on other neighbours as if it were an attack on themselves.

Shall we review what countries do when attacked?

The US would invade some random third country if a Nato country was attacked by Russia. North Korea perhaps.

When was the last time the UK was attacked? Falklands? Well, the UK can no longer do that as it no longer has a functioning navy...Cod wars with Iceland? The UK folded...The Cyprus emergency? The UK folded...The Jewish insurgency in Palestine? The UK folded.

Shall we continue?
McKobb
Member
Fri Mar 22 23:51:55
It's about time we roll those NoKos! We need a M*A*S*H reboot anyways.
Paramount
Member
Sat Mar 23 02:55:00
”This may sound shocking”

No. It just sound like propaganda.
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