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Utopia Talk / Politics / A 50 extension ... Part 2
murder
Member
Wed Mar 27 17:43:02
ad infinitum
murder
Member
Wed Mar 27 18:09:50
The "customs union" proposal got the most support out of all the options voted on today, but I have a question ... has the EU agreed to this? Would they agree to this?

Seb
Member
Wed Mar 27 18:17:45
Your analysis is all all wrong.

1. RE parliamentary votes, today was structured to bring all options onto the table and sense their relative popularity. It was not supposed to find a winner. On Monday they do run offs.

So lets look at the options that scored highest:

1. Customs union
2. Second referendum (for whatever option) - aka stealth revoke
3. Labour's mysterious altenrative plan which is basically EEA + CU wearing a wig, false nose and fake glasses.

Interesting is that the EEA+CU got so low a result - why? Because er... it's the same as being in the EU with no say.


We are zeroing in on soft brexit with a referendum on it.

2. May sort of half offered to resign - who cares?
a. It doesn't win her enough votes.
b. It's split the ERG and ruined the reputation of Boris and Mogg - they are now universally despised for their naked ambition over principle.
c. She didn't unambiguously offer to resign, so har har har.
d. If you are a remainer at hear tory, why do you vote for this deal? Why would you follow the whip of a lame duck PM who will not survive to see her deal through, offering to resign to make way for hard brexiteers who will rip it up anyway?
e. For the house as a whole, having taken the drastic step of taking control of the order paper and sorting this out yourselves, why would you suddenly give way to a lame duck PM who is trying to get this through on the basis she will resign before she can see it through?
f. As the DUP, whose fear is not no brexit, but divergence of the UK and NI in standards or tariffs, why is May's deal (given how shaky it looks going forward if she is to resign to make way for people who want to tear it up and are only voting for it in order to create the opportunity to tear it up) now worth supporting? The risk of divergence is much greater due to the likelihood of being thrown under the bus by English Brexiteers who honestly don't give a fuck about NI being the wrong side of a customs border so long as they can say they delivered a hard brexit)

May and her offer to resign is irrelevant, as she became irrelevant when MPs tooks over the order paper, and her half-offer-of-resignation makes not the slightest bit of difference.


Seb
Member
Wed Mar 27 18:21:14
murder:

Yes. Probably. Because it solves Ireland and mitigates most of the threat to EU market share in the UK.

Non tariff barriers remain but the UK isn't big enough to be a new standards area - in practice we won't be able to set different standards because nobody will set up production lines to cater to them at rates that wouldn't push up prices so high as to irritate consumers.

Industry and consumer lobbying will see to it that we remain aligned to EU standards (even given the notional possibility of switching to US ones, which suffer form two issues: firstly by and large are inferior as they are weighted more to producers than consumers than European; secondly being fighting inertia of supply chains already geared to integration with the EU).

murder
Member
Wed Mar 27 18:57:32

How many more times do you figure that May will bash her head into a wall before calling for early general elections?


Seb
Member
Wed Mar 27 19:06:29
May is irrelevant now.

In any case, Fixed Term Parliament act took that power out of her hands.

the house has to either no confidence her (which they no longer need to do) or she has to get a majority to support elections.

But the tories definitely do not want to fight an election under her as leader, and with brexit unresolved.

And neither would many labour MPs (so some will rebel)

And I think the SNP would strongly argue brexit needs to be resolved first.

So my guess would be there is no chance of a General Election happening until after brexit is resolved and May replaced.

The stupidly obvious thing for May to have done weeks ago is to rat fuck the brexiteers.

After the the first MV failed, wing it back with a confirmatory referendum.

Some brexiteers were simply looking to scare the shit out of Brussels for a better deal, and never expected to win. Some were simply looking to curry favour for leadership bids.

Very few are wedded to the idea.

But May is appallingly bad as a politician and leader.
Seb
Member
Wed Mar 27 19:13:34
Apparently they re-paginated the withdrawal deal to make it look different but it has not changed wording.

This was to try and get MV3 through, even after the speaker ruled it needed substantial changes to return in the same session.

Prompting the joke

"The lady's not for kerning".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQ-M0KEFm9I
Seb
Member
Wed Mar 27 19:30:34
Best comment so far...

"It's all-oo-oover,
The-er-er-esa,
your premierships a failure
your brexit too extreme
Parliaments in command now
the country's not your prisoner
time to call an uber
and pack a transit van"



Seb
Member
Wed Mar 27 19:30:34
Best comment so far...

"It's all-oo-oover,
The-er-er-esa,
your premierships a failure
your brexit too extreme
Parliaments in command now
the country's not your prisoner
time to call an uber
and pack a transit van"



murder
Member
Wed Mar 27 23:46:51

"The lady's not for kerning".

lol :o)

Seb
Member
Thu Mar 28 03:13:37
Theresa May, a prime minister too weak to gather enough support for her resignation
murder
Member
Fri Mar 29 08:40:28

What time is the vote?

murder
Member
Fri Mar 29 09:33:31

The result should be in in ~ 15 minutes.

murder
Member
Fri Mar 29 09:48:16

MPs have voted by 286 to 344 to reject the government’s withdrawal agreement.

May faceplants again.

swordtail
Anarchist Prime
Fri Mar 29 09:48:19
Pound Tumbles As Brexit Deal Defeated By 58 Votes

http://www...-brexit-deal-defeated-58-votes
Seb
Member
Fri Mar 29 11:03:20
Under 1% is hardly a tumble.
Seb
Member
Fri Mar 29 11:07:14
Shannon had booked the independence day party for today too. He's sitting somewhere, in an empty church hall he booked, bunting still in the box, staring hollowly at a portrait of the Queen, while the sandwiches he ordered from Gregg's slowly dry and curl.
shannon
Member
Sat Mar 30 20:29:21

https://youtu.be/8V6b0QJspKo

The mask has slipped and exposed you as treacherous scum Seb. Must make you proud to live in a post democratic society.
Seb
Member
Sun Mar 31 05:08:19
You had your chance Shannon and you blew it.

Your brexiteer promises have proven unbelievable and unrealistic.

Your leave campaign explicitly promised not to leave with no deal, and that a trade agreement would be the easiest thing in the world.

Your brexiteer chums produced the best deal they could, which is being rejected by Brexiteer MPs.

Accusing everyone else of treachery because your lot are incompetent and your fantasies unworkable is naught but a childish failure to take responsibility.

Time to go back to the people with the real options on the table.

You can always try again when you've got a plan that's actually not unicorns and fairy dust.

jergul
large member
Sun Mar 31 09:16:38
On behalf of unicors: I take exception to that remark. Unicorns and fairy dust are far more real than any brexit plan I have seen.
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