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The current time is Thu Jun 20 14:01:56 2019

Utopia Talk / Politics / Theressa May quits
Seb
Member
Fri May 24 04:38:25
At this point the Cons should probably just choose the Lectern they put outside no 10 as PM.
Seb
Member
Fri May 24 04:38:44
It's strong. And Stable.
patom
Member
Fri May 24 05:55:53
So does this mean the Brexit thing is dead? I haven't followed it real close but I don't recall a long line of Brexit leaders willing to lead the process.
Seb
Member
Fri May 24 06:40:09
No. The monster will continue to roll along, consuming all in its path. The UK will leave the EU by automatic operation of law at 11pm UK time on October 31st, unless the govt decides to revoke or extend.

The front runner for con leader and next PM is Boris Johnson.

But this changes nothing. The EU will not renegotiate, and parliament will not endorse no deal. The Cons will not be able to fight an election, not will they support a referendum.

The next PM will likely be unable to achieve anything until October and then must choose extension on no deal.

If they choose no deal, it achieves little. Even if a future govt decides to have a WTO deal only with the EU forever, we still need to negotiate on all sorts of things, which they will not do not until we make parallel commitments to the Withdrawal agreement. All the contingency measures are symmetric unilateral easements. What this means is, e.g. France will allow British truck drivers to operate in Europe while we allow French ones to operate in the UK.

But as the EU starts to implement plans for a new world, these will pull back. And they will help themselves to large chunks of our economy.

For example, they will waive the requirement for airlines operating in the EU not part of open skies to be owned by entities based in the EU. But they can phase that in over a few years, forcing companies to relocate their business base. The UK can decide whether it wants to retaliate by imposing the same laws and ban EU airlines from operating in the UK - but the effect of the retaliation would be more detrimental to the UK.

Similarly, waivers of inspection of goods at customs will be initially waived, but as EU suppliers get in place and EU finishes recruiting more border inspectors, then they can start enforcing checks, and stop accepting UK Export health certificates. Piece by piece, they can take apart our economy.

No PM will be able to survive this. But no conservative PM can countenance the withdrawal deal or a referendum. So there will be another extension in October if the EU allows it.

The issue of Britain's place in Europe has destroyed every conservative leader since Thatcher.

It will destroy the next one too.
Seb
Member
Fri May 24 06:49:34
The Tories are split now.

Half of them need to either go and join the brexit party and leave the others to try and rebuild a party of the centre right.

Or alternatively the other half on them need to leave and join change UK or the liberal democrats and build a centrist reform party, and leave the others to try and reclaim their voters and activists from Farrage.

But either way, the conservatives have only been able to win a majority in a GE once since 1992, and have only held a majority for 5 years in the past 27 years. And that's before this huge split.

The most successful political party in the West is now, if not dead, a shadow of its former self.
Paramount
Member
Fri May 24 08:39:03
”So there will be another extension in October if the EU allows it. ”


I hope not. This is getting silly. Either you will have to leave with no deal, or you can chose to remain in da EU.
swordtail
Anarchist Prime
Fri May 24 08:55:19
it's up to david cameron to save the day.
Seb
Member
Fri May 24 09:00:40
Paramount:

Throwing us out means throwing the RoI under a bus. It would be a stupid thing to do. Would certainly make Boris's life easier though.
patom
Member
Fri May 24 09:49:41
Wasn't Boris the guy that called for it but had no idea how to bring it to fruition? Did he go to Brexit school?
obaminated
Member
Fri May 24 09:53:06
ah, the uk is such a shitshow. i like how you guys voted for something and your government flatly refuses to follow through on the will of the people. must be fun living in a shitty state that ignores the will of the people.
jergul
large member
Fri May 24 10:15:01
Obam
Remind me again who won the popular vote last election.

Indeed it must be fun to live in a shitty state that ignores the will of the people.
obaminated
Member
Fri May 24 10:16:41
That's a good distraction for people who dont know that the president ain't elected by the pop vote. Meanwhile referendums in the uk are.
Seb
Member
Fri May 24 10:36:43
Obaminated:

I can show you a ten minute montage of leave campaigners telling everyone they'd like a deal, like Norway, and that everyone's jobs would be fine.

They absolutely didn't vote for no deal.

The reason Parliament won't pass Mays deal or leave with no deal is for the reason I told your brexit was stupid during the referrendum.

To leave the single market and customs Union is to painful and offers no benefit.

To remain in the single market and customs Union makes brexit pointless.

Neither of these options commands a majority of support.

The only way to get a majority for leave is to not talk about what kind of exit you want. Which was explicitly what Dominic Cummings (think the evil brexit version of Josh from Westwing) set up as their strategy for precisely that reason.

Hence ever time someone tries to turn brexit into a policy, it's horribly unpopular.

Pillz
Member
Fri May 24 10:41:43
Sovereignty is not a benefit for seb
Sam Adams
Member
Fri May 24 11:38:57
Lol

Alabama
hood
Member
Fri May 24 11:43:26
To be fair, sovereignty is only a benefit if you're the one making the rules. To the mass of proles, a job that provides cash flow to keep yourself alive is far more important than a bunch of stuffy assholes having full say over governance.

Or: nobody on this forum and likely nobody that people on this forum directly know would see tangible benefits from sovereignty. We still all bend to the whims of other people.
Seb
Member
Fri May 24 11:57:54
Pillz:

We have sovereignty. As a member, we are using our sovereign power in conjunction with others to our own benefit to achieve things we can't achieve alone.

Pillz
Member
Fri May 24 12:15:08
You're describing a confederation.
Seb
Member
Fri May 24 13:02:55
Pillz:

Yes. That's what the EU is.
jergul
large member
Fri May 24 13:06:57
I just saw the speech. Oh gawd.
Im better then you
2012 UP Football Champ
Fri May 24 13:37:36
This is just massive epic level of retardation. Especially considering the fact that Corbyn can't take advantage of this dysfunction.
Rugian
Member
Fri May 24 15:34:03
She really has a unique ability to make me feel sorry for. Leaving the office she dreamed for a lifetime of holding in tears? Jesus. To say nothing about the two years' worth of absolute hell leading up tot that moment.

She needs a hug :(
Rugian
Member
Fri May 24 15:36:30
Seb,

What's the actual maths on Boris managing to be PM? Even if he gets through the party process, he's a PM in charge of a minority government, who is deeply despised by both a number of his backbenches and the bulk of the opposition. Between Tory defections and the DUP walking away, how does he manage to stay in power?
Seb
Member
Fri May 24 17:32:50
Rugian:

Ordinarily I'd have sympathy.

But she's utterly the author of her own fate.

She chose to avoid building any cross party consensus, she marginalised the 48% (now 60%) that voted remain, and defined brexit to be the most extreme Bexit.

She chose to normalise and promote no deal, which was always going to bite her later.

I could go on and on.

And her exit speech was repugnant in its hypocrisy. She was the one that refused to compromise - and for the woman that has blocked many child refugees from the UK to invoke the kindertransport is at best poor taste.
Seb
Member
Fri May 24 17:34:20
Rugian:

The DUP will back him if they trust him. And the majority of Tory MPs will fall in line if the membership back him. They'll give him a honeymoon.

But we shall see. He's the front runner.


Seb
Member
Fri May 24 17:39:27
Honestly, it's pretty hard to predict what happens.
Seb
Member
Fri May 24 17:53:27
Jergul:

Definition of hypocrisy. No acceptance of the mistake she made. Delusional.

I'm sorry she feels emotional but she ducked the country.
Average Ameriacn
Member
Fri May 24 18:10:14
She will still meet with Trump, the highlight of her life.
The Children
Member
Sat May 25 00:34:03
sun has set upon this island mate, i been sayin 4 years. just look around u how bad things r. yea sure the rich is still rich, the city centre is still beautifull, the financial district is still financial district.

look around u at the rest of the mudhuts. its been decayin 4 decades. crime, shithole gangstas, human traffickin, prostituation, chavs, shithole is shithole.

u dunt wanna be at certain areas after certain hours. shits unsafe.

The Children
Member
Sat May 25 00:42:03
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bcrU4iU1YD4
jergul
large member
Sat May 25 01:57:05
Obam
The voters knew the referendum was advisory.
jergul
large member
Sat May 25 02:19:32
Tass calls it "End of May in early June". Mkay. The Cesearian calendar is always a bit confusing.
Dukhat
Member
Sat May 25 05:59:44
Sad state of affairs for Britain. Nobody wants to be in charge when Brexit happens and the shit hits the fan and you undergo a recession for no reason.

That being said, the long-term secular decline of non-cities is a tough nut for policy-makers.

The right-wing has no solution as they've been sucking Reagan's nutsack for so long they have no ability to prescribe anything other than budget-busting tax cuts.

And the left-wing can't sustain a majority and bleed hordes of support just for failing at simple things like launching a website.

It's an absolute shit-show and Brexit is but one example of many how toxic and horrible our politics has become in the age of Rupert Murdoch, unregulated campaign finance, and internet trolls.
Paramount
Member
Sat May 25 08:27:24
”just look around u how bad things r. yea sure the rich is still rich, the city centre is still beautifull, the financial district is still financial district.

look around u at the rest of the mudhuts. its been decayin 4 decades. crime, shithole gangstas, human traffickin, prostituation, chavs, shithole is shithole.”



What u gonna do about it? Cast your vote in the election? Lol
Seb
Member
Sat May 25 10:34:08
Dukhat:

Are you kidding? They are all lining up to jump in to take control.

UK was well ahead on digital services. That problem is well cracked.

Don't assume the UK is just a copy of the US.

williamthebastard
Member
Fri May 31 15:02:29
Looking like Great Britain will end its days as the Genuine Royal Trump Golf Course with Authentic Medieval Fish'n'chips and Scrumpy. Don't Miss the Robin Hood show at 8 PM, or the Shoot an Apple ona Buxom Wenches Head with Live Ammo!
Seb
Member
Fri May 31 17:23:59
Erm, that's probably the worst take I've heard.

More likely Great Britain ends its days in Scottish independence and subsequent economic crash due to economic dislocation with it's biggest market, Northern Irish independence (and the republic inherits a civil war); and then a deeply unsettling England and Wales that amounts to 80-90% of the current country by population and economy which far from being "ye old theme park" is likely to be something with a tinge or orbanism, but way more political, economic and military power. But not tied into the EU. Likely, revanchist in mood, and in terms of geopolitical reality, lots of shared interest with Russia and Turkey.

Yaaay.
Williamthebastard
Member
Sat Jun 01 07:00:58
Shut up you fucking kiddie-fiddler. Thanks.
Williamthebastard
Member
Sat Jun 01 07:04:28
Oh and you might want to swap your phd for a caddie course. The UK sure makes good servants and butlers for US billionaires
Seb
Member
Sat Jun 01 10:10:35
WtB:

Kiddie fiddler?

Where the fuck did that come from? See this is why nobody takes you seriously.
Seb
Member
Sat Jun 01 10:11:37
That and your long stories about how you humiliate people with mental health issues and then wonder why they get violent.
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