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Utopia Talk / Politics / Brexit Party 31.6%
Rugian
Member
Mon May 27 06:41:13
Boom.
jergul
large member
Mon May 27 09:18:04
That seems less than plurality somehow.
CrownRoyal
Member
Mon May 27 10:01:38
awe inspiring landslide? How can anyone fail to get the message after seeing the numbers? A wave like this gives winners an iron clad mandate to do whatever
CrownRoyal
Member
Mon May 27 10:04:01
What happens to UK EU legislature seats after brexit btw? Are they just going to scrap them all?
Seb
Member
Mon May 27 10:38:36
That's the most hilarious take eve.

They were polling for 38%. The swing from hard brexit parties Vs 2014 is -5% or -7.5%.

Meanwhile the strong remain parties have a swing of +22% or +15%.

Overall strong brexit parties are on 34% Vs strong remain parties on 40%.

The brexit party hasnt even captured half of the swing *away* from the Tory Party.

Brexit party is just ukip rebranded with some conservative voters.

Boom, it ain't.

Except for the Tories and Corbyn. Tories are now fucked. Corbyn will need to go to make way for labor to get off the fence.
Rugian
Member
Mon May 27 10:58:56
That's a lot of words to not say that Brexit parties just got an even bigger share in EU elections.

And its no mystery as to why. The Conservative implosion is very simple: the Remainder Theresa May spent three years doing everything she could to fail to deliver Brexit, which includes to option of the UK leaving the European Union without a deal. Hopefully the next Conservative PM hears this message loud and clear and delivers accordingly.
Rugian
Member
Mon May 27 11:08:59
As for Labour, I'd love to see the party tell its working class voters to go fuck themselves in order to reposition its base around radicalized college students and London elites. The US Democrats tried that same strategy, and look where that got them in 2016.

Good luck selling Corbyn as anything other than a completely opportunistic snake if that happens though.
swordtail
Anarchist Prime
Mon May 27 12:17:23
i'm guessing the uber kekistani intelligent party didn't do so well.
Rugian
Member
Mon May 27 12:25:26
Alas, poor Sargon of Akkad was the victim of a massive hitjob and censorship campaign that doomed his otherwise promising campaign.

FFS, the amount of inaccurate claims that he had joked about raping Jess Phillips were astounding. For the record, he joked about NOT raping Jess Phillips. Big difference.
jergul
large member
Mon May 27 12:26:36
Seb
Corbyn did get a very strong mandate in last party leader election.

Ruggy
May simply did not have the parliamentary support to deliver on any of the available alternatives.

This will remain true of her successor(s).

I don't really see the deadlock breaking until after the next parliamentary election on the 5th of May 2022.
Seb
Member
Mon May 27 12:36:59
Rugian:

"That's a lot of words to not say that Brexit parties just got an even bigger share in EU elections."

Except they didn't.

Leave parties parties 2019 - 2014
Party+UKIP+Con+BNP+English Dem: 44.0% (-7.5%)

Remain parties:
LibD+Green+ChUK+SNP+PC+Lab: 54.5% (+13.1%)


Seb
Member
Mon May 27 12:38:59
Leave voters have consolidated behind the brexit "party", but vote share shrunk.

Remain voter has increased but fragmented.

Seb
Member
Mon May 27 12:40:57
The brexit party is basically ukip with less than half of conservative defectors.

The other half have predominantly switched to lib dem.

Rugian
Member
Mon May 27 12:44:10
jergul...you're a Corbynista! Never would have guessed. His support for de-nuclearization and withdrawal from NATO don't really align well with your, ahem, non-support for the Russification of Europe after all.

Why doesn't May have the necessary Commons support again? Oh right, because she first called a snap election and then sabotaged her party's chances of winning that election. And then she completely botched the negotiations with the EU by accepting virtual vassal status. Fucking inexcusable.

The resurgence of Farage is a sign that the voters are sick of the referendum results not being honored by May and her fellow crypto-Remainers in Parliament. Hopefully future Prime Minister Johnson is capable of restructuring relationships with the EU by remembering that the UK is actually in a position to make demands.
Seb
Member
Mon May 27 12:46:36
I love this idea that Theresa is a remainer that failed to deliver brexit.

She set out an extremely hard position (end FoM, no foreign courts, no financial contributions). The problem is that this is incompatible with no land border in NI.

Hell, you support NI independence iirc, so you should surely recognise that Brexiteers inability to tolerate the backstop is merely a colonial itch.
CrownRoyal
Member
Mon May 27 12:50:27
"The resurgence of Farage is a sign that the voters are sick of the referendum results not being honored "

31.6% of voters, to be precise
Seb
Member
Mon May 27 12:50:36
Rugian:

"Why doesn't May have the necessary Commons support again? Oh right, because she first called a snap election and then sabotaged her party's chances of winning that election"

An election she was polling overwhelmingly to win before she set out a very hardline brexit position; which Brexiteers were calling on her to have at the time; and which you'd have to be insane to think she wanted to lose!

Seems to me that she lost that election in part because she swapped "brexit means brexit" for the Lancaster house speech redlines, which cost her a huge amount of support from the centre ground electorate that voted Tories in 2015 (many who had voted for lib Dems in 2010) because they were scared of Corbyn.

Any way to look at it, there isn't a majority for Mays brexit because it's too extreme. Making it more so will not help. In fact, it might even bring down the govt.


Seb
Member
Mon May 27 12:52:34
"The resurgence of Farage is a sign that the voters ..."

How does this tally with the bigger swing and bigger proportion of remain voters?

I think *more* voters are sick and tired of brexit and the hollow, undeliverable policies and rampant corruption of Farrage.
Seb
Member
Mon May 27 12:53:55
"remembering that the UK is actually in a position to make demands."

My two year old makes demands. I say "or else what?".

What is the UK's "or else!" in your view?
Rugian
Member
Mon May 27 13:19:42
"31.6% of voters, to be precise"

For a party that has existed for all of a couple of weeks, and is led by a man that is demonized in the media to the point where acts of physical violence against him are all but celebrated by journalists? Yeah, I'm pretty impressed by the result.

"I love this idea that Theresa is a remainer that failed to deliver brexit."

Yes, I do rather believe that the woman that voted Remain in the referendum is a remainer, especially when factoring in how out of step MPs tend to be compared to the general populace on the issue.

"Hell, you support NI independence iirc,"

I can't categorically state that I never said that in a drunken shitpost at one point, but no, that's not my position.

"An election she was polling overwhelmingly to win before she set out a very hardline brexit position; which Brexiteers were calling on her to have at the time; and which you'd have to be insane to think she wanted to lose!"

Oh FFS. As long as we're IIRCing things, I distinctly recall you arguing at the time that the purpose of the election was to give May a cushion so that she wouldn't be beholden to ERG demands. Are we now arguing otherwise?

Anyway, if the election had been a straight up-or-down referendum on Brexit, it's strange that it was Labour rather than the Lib Dems that were the primary beneficiaries of the results.

"Any way to look at it, there isn't a majority for Mays brexit because it's too extreme."

What? It's too extreme? For who?

-Virtually all of the non-ERG wing of the Tories stuck with May through all three of the MVs, so they were clearly able to swallow it.

-Labour demands on shit like worker rights etc. can easily be separated from Brexit (as MV4 sought to do); their opposition to the proposal is based in rank opportunism and intraparty fighting rather than any concrete policy disagreements.

-DUP opposition is based on them being extremists on the border issue.

-Brexit is indisputably a good thing for the fisheries market, so SNP opposition is based on issues outside of its merits (incidentally, how many times have I seen an argument on UP that a second referendum on Scottish independence should be held in light of the government's failure to deliver on devolution? Oh right, none.)

There is nothing extremist about the product of May's three-year-long act of bending over to the EU in a craven exercise of self-immolation, other than in how shameless she and her fellow Remainers have been in insisting that British sovereignty should never be achieved in our lifetimes. Fuck that.
Rugian
Member
Mon May 27 13:23:45
"My two year old makes demands. I say "or else what?".

What is the UK's "or else!" in your view?"

Quoting random facts from Wikipedia's page on the UK:

"has the world's fifth-largest economy by nominal GDP and ninth-largest economy by purchasing power parity"

"an estimated 66.0 million inhabitants in 2017"

" remains a great power, with considerable economic, cultural, military, scientific and political influence internationally"


The EU benefits as much from its relationship from the UK as the UK benefits from its relationship with EU member countries. The UK should have recognized that from the first and negotiated as a peer.

Problem is, Parliament is a fundamentally Remain body, so the referendum has been treated by everyone in government like some incredible disaster that can only be mitigated. As a result, you went to the EU as supplicants, not partners. That was a fuck-up. As much as we all like to shit on the UK here, you actually do have some negotiating power as a country.
CrownRoyal
Member
Mon May 27 13:28:05
"Yeah, I'm pretty impressed by the result. "

sure. But best to mention the unimpressive share of all voters, because "the voters are sick of the referendum results not being honored" leave the impression that you are talking about UK voters in general.
jergul
large member
Mon May 27 14:37:39
Ruggy
My views on Nato are significantly more robust than Trumps.

I am not particularly pro Corbyn, but simply think party leadership shall be decided by party supporters. As a general principle.

The procedure for getting rid of Corbyn would start with finding a stronger candidate for his position.

The problem is that parliament does not support any option it has been presented. A result of a hung government (May did not get a strong enough mandate to deliver a brexit).

I agree. It was probably a mistake to trigger article 50 under those conditions.
Seb
Member
Mon May 27 14:56:23
Rugian:

"For a party that has existed for all of a couple of weeks, and is led by a man that is demonized in the media to the point where acts of physical violence against him are all but celebrated by journalists? Yeah, I'm pretty impressed by the result."

You mean a party set up by the man who was the sole personality in UKIP?

It's just a UKIP rebrand.

"Yes, I do rather believe that the woman that voted Remain in the referendum is a remainer, especially when factoring in how out of step MPs tend to be compared to the general populace on the issue."

Then you aren't paying attention. May has always been pro strong immigration controls and against the EU legal system. More likely, she's a leaver who supported remain out of loyalty to cameron and a desire not to lose her job.

Irrespective, in policy terms shes pursued the hardest leave policy other than "leave with no deal". The idea she is a suicide bomber who decided to take down brexit and her own career at the same time is laughable.

"I distinctly recall you arguing at the time that the purpose of the election was to give May a cushion so that she wouldn't be beholden to ERG demands. Are we now arguing otherwise?"

If you think ERG represents the mainstream of brexiteer you are kidding yourselves. In any case, ERG have done more to defeat brexit than anyone. David Davis, Raab etc. were calling for an early election.

"Anyway, if the election had been a straight up-or-down referendum on Brexit, it's strange that it was Labour rather than the Lib Dems that were the primary beneficiaries of the results."

Labour at the time were doing a good job of sitting on the fence, and the Libs were still seen as irrevocably tainted by coalition with the conservatives.

The problem is, over the last year, it's become abundently clear that corbyn and his crew want to leave. Hence they are being brutally punished and there is a big swing from Lab to Lib as furious voters have had a couple of years of being told that by voting for Labour they were part of the "80% of people that voted to support a brexit".

"What? It's too extreme? For who?"
For hard core swivel eyed brexiteers that see it as a vassal state to avoid a border between NI and the republic, and for huge numbers of people who wanted a deal that would protect the economy and jobs - which requires a Norway style arrangement which TM considers to be unacceptable form of brexit (despite Farage having supported it as a model before the referendum).

"Brexit is indisputably a good thing for the fisheries market"

No, it's clearly not as the UK have straight out said that without access to UK waters they will not cut any kind of trade deal on fish. External tariffs are huge, and most of the UK fish production is for the EU market. Even if we *did* leave with no deal, then irrespective of tariffs, no UK caught fish could enter the EU market as they wouldn't accept UK Export Health Certificates on the fish, or UK Catch certificates.

They will simply import fish from other parts of the world.

Further, the *entire* Fishing industry is something like 0.12% of the UK economy. Service exports are orders of magnitudes more valuable.

What utter madness are you spouting? "We trashed our export market, but look, MAGIC BEANS!"

We've already LOST more jobs than the entire Fishing industry provides that can be directly accounted for.

"incidentally, how many times have I seen an argument on UP that a second referendum on Scottish independence should be held in light of the government's failure to deliver on devolution? Oh right, none."

Do we have any Scottish nats here?



Sam Adams
Member
Mon May 27 15:02:17
The uk is a nation of cucks so sovereignty means nothing to them. Might as well remain to make visiting the other cucks easier.
Seb
Member
Mon May 27 15:07:24
Rugian:

"has the world's fifth-largest economy by nominal GDP and ninth-largest economy by purchasing power parity"

Sixth actually, since we left the EU, the currency has declined, and growth below France. Wiki clearly not been updated.

Ok, great, but no deal will send us into a steep depression as we are disrupting our trade with our biggest neighbour.

What leverage does that translate to? That's not an "or else".

"an estimated 66.0 million inhabitants in 2017"

And? Why does the EU care about that?

" remains a great power, with considerable economic, cultural, military, scientific and political influence internationally"

We've just cut ourselves out of EU scientific collaboration, our military defence industries are now no longer able to collaborate with the EU. And culturally you can see surveys on global perception of the UK tanking.

But even if we ignored all of that: again, "so what?" Why does any of this matter to the EU, such that they must listen to our demands?

"The EU benefits as much from its relationship from the UK as the UK benefits from its relationship with EU member countries."

I'm sorry that is nonsense. There is no single country in the EU that benefits more from their bilateral relationship with the UK than the combined relationship with the other 26 countries. It is entirely rational of them to refuse to budge an inch on the integrity of the single market. The closest to that is Ireland, and you have seen their position.

"The UK should have recognized that from the first and negotiated as a peer."

David Davis tried that for a year. Look at his magnificent success.

Problem is, Parliament is a fundamentally Remain body, so the referendum has been treated by everyone in government like some incredible disaster that can only be mitigated. As a result, you went to the EU as supplicants, not partners. That was a fuck-up. As much as we all like to shit on the UK here, you actually do have some negotiating power as a country.

"Problem is, Parliament is a fundamentally Remain body"

In the sense that a majority can all see it is a ludicrous policy, yes. But they were perfectly willing to go along with it, voting for A50 etc.

The failure to conclude a deal that meets the insane promises of the leave campaign is entirely down to the government (as in, the executive).

"so the referendum has been treated by everyone in government like some incredible disaster that can only be mitigated."

That isn't true. In any case, in negotiations, the EU just said no. Even on issues where we thought they would want something, it turns out they want less from us in terms of security and data sharing etc. than we want from them. In my view this is deeply short sighted, but the commission doesn't give a fuck. They are severing all the bilateral data links for routine inteligence sharing.

You are radically underestimating how much the EU and the 27 members are simply not interested in a negotiation here. The deal on the table is the best we can get, unless we want to have a border poll on NI; or are content for no deal.

And no deal will be horrific.

I asked you to list specific negotiating points, all you came up with was a list of out of date economic stats, none of which actually amount to something that would apply pressure on the EU side.

The one thing that we might have thought would sway them, maintain the current level of security cooperation, they are actively refusing under deal circumstances. So ha ha ha, no deal will be great.

A civil war in NI again, with no police cooperation. I'm sure you Americans can be relied to fund raise for the IRA again.
Seb
Member
Tue May 28 12:11:41
Rugian and Sam keep going on about sovereignty - but the UK hasn't lost sovereignty by being a member of the EU.

Yet the very likely result of a no deal brexit (or indeed any brexit) is NI and Scotland declaring independence.

Is that a loss of sovereignty?
Seb
Member
Tue May 28 12:12:57
Rugian is deluded.

But Sam is an out and out retard who "doesn't word well", as he would put it on his argot.
Seb
Member
Tue May 28 12:13:44
Rugian is deluded.

But Sam is an out and out retard who "doesn't word well", as he would no doubt put it on his argot.
CrownRoyal
Member
Tue May 28 12:35:59
I remember distinctly how EU stopped UK from the Iraq War participation, because pretty much every other EU member was dead set against it. Other military actions too. Thats when you knew that UK lost sovereignity. Then, after EU took away UK's UN Security Council seat, it was like the brits never had any sovereignity at all.
Sam Adams
Member
Tue May 28 12:44:11
"but the UK hasn't lost sovereignty by being a member of the EU. "

This is what a retard says.
Seb
Member
Tue May 28 13:48:46
Sam:

If we haven't lost sovereignty, how is it we can leave then?
Seb
Member
Tue May 28 13:49:05
* have
Seb
Member
Tue May 28 13:49:35
I'm not sure Sam knows what sovereignty is.
Sam Adams
Member
Tue May 28 14:33:06
I'm not sure seb, dumbass that he is, knows the difference between all and some.
Sam Adams
Member
Tue May 28 14:39:59
You have definetly lost some of your sovereignty.

Not that a small nation of cucks that despises freedom and has an alabama level of economic development had much sovereignty to begin with. The days of churchill and neslon and ruling the waves are long gone.
Seb
Member
Tue May 28 15:58:17
Sovereignty, like virginity, isn't something you have "some of".

Proof that Sam doesn't know what the fuck he's talking about.
hood
Member
Tue May 28 16:38:00
Seb apparently knows nothing about sex.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7pzs0aGu1fU
Seb
Member
Tue May 28 17:08:27
Hood:


I was waiting for someone to bring that up (weeellll aaaaactualllly) but didn't want to ruin a perfectly good reference. To address your point I would say that's two different types of virginity rather than partial virginity. E.g. someone who has not been analy penetrated isn't "half a virgin", and someone can't be "half an anal virgin".

And even in the context the song raises, the argument is anal penetration *doesn't count*, not that it represents a purely fractional loss of virginity. This approach reminds me of Neal Stephenson's joke about a man claiming that he isn't committing adultery because he is wearing a condom so technically his penis never touched her, to which the woman replies that he must then instead be buggering a sheep (in the time the story was set, condoms were made of sheep gut).

But fine, if you must insist on being pedantic and ruining a perfectly good analogy with a rather obvious (yet flawed) criticism: partial-sovereignty is like digging half a hole.



McKobb
Member
Tue May 28 17:12:00
You said analogy.
Seb
Member
Tue May 28 17:22:43
Boom-tchis.

hood
Member
Tue May 28 18:48:44
I was only referencing a funny song, not actually arguing against you.
jergul
large member
Wed May 29 00:40:29
Sammy
Any bilateral or multilateral treaty would involve the loss of *some* sovereignity by that logic.

North Korea would be the most Sovereign State on the planet by your logic.
Sam Adams
Member
Wed May 29 11:05:51
"Sovereignty, like virginity, isn't something you have "some of"."

Lol seb you dumbass.

"Any bilateral or multilateral treaty would involve the loss of *some* sovereignity by that logic."

Correct.

"North Korea would be the most Sovereign State on the planet by your logic."

They are under sanctions by a vastly superior power and have no military ability to change that. Doesn't sound very sovereign to me.

I would say Israel and China are operating with the most right now.
Seb
Member
Wed May 29 12:43:25
"Correct"

Incorrect. The source of the legal per of the treaty remains the will of the sovereign parties who may choose to break it.

This is likely to have repercussions (cf. North korea) but that isn't an issue of sovereignty, it's a question of power.

The EU is a confederation of sovereign countries who may leave. However, being a country sandwiched between huge trading blocks that have disproportionately more power at the best of times may mean you get unfettered freedom to choose policy without compromise; but the policy options available may be far fewer and less beneficial in practice.
Seb
Member
Wed May 29 12:44:39
Tldr; EU law has effect in the UK only because the sovereign body of the UK has decided to do so. It can revoke said decision. It has not lost sovereignty.

Deciding to leave the EU however doesn't increase Parliaments power. It decreases it.
Sam Adams
Member
Wed May 29 12:50:52
"but that isn't an issue of sovereignty, it's a question of power."

The two are nearly the same thing.
Sam Adams
Member
Wed May 29 12:54:42
"It has not lost sovereignty."

It certainly has lost some. It can be restored in the future if you uncuck yourselves.
Seb
Member
Thu May 30 04:48:51
Sam:

No they aren't. Quite evidently. Sovereignty is about where authority to rule formally comes from. In the UK, the crown in parliament.

The whole argument for leaving the EU in order to "regain our sovereignty" is precisely this confusion - that somehow the UK will be able to regain its mid 19th century power to impose terms on others.

The situation is the reverse: we joined the EU to collaborate in common cause with similar powers and this increase our power to secure better terms. However, that means we must negotiate internally to reach a common position. Generally the UK wins these arguments as we are one of the big countries in the EU.

This isn't an infringement of sovereignty, we can leave if we want, however we will have less power to make our desires reality.





Sam Adams
Member
Thu May 30 10:43:53
"Sovereignty is about where authority to rule formally comes from."

Right.

Like I said, power.
Seb
Member
Thu May 30 10:54:36
Sam:

Nope. Sure, if you have enough power you can impose your will and achieve sovereignty over a territory or people. Like America failed to do in Afghanistan.
Seb
Member
Thu May 30 11:22:55
In any case, it is transparently obvious that no country will offer better terms of trade to an economy the size of the UK than it will to the economy the size of the EU; nor will manufacturers cater to standards set by the UK that vary from China, EU or the USA; and we lose the ability to influence those standards - then by your own definition the act of leaving the EU is a loss of sovereignty.
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