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Utopia Talk / Politics / 2020 black vote for Trump
Habebe
Member
Sun Feb 09 10:24:29
Lets be frank unless Bloomberg wins the nomination I dont see Trump getting more than 12% , maybe not even that best case scenario maybe 15% and that's generous.

Biden, Sanders and steyer probably have the best bet for holding onto the black vote.

If it was Trump V. Bloomberg I could see either blacks just not vote or Trump to get some absurd amount % wise, still with low voter turnout.

I dont see Pete fairing too well with them nationally.
jergul
large member
Sun Feb 09 10:50:57
Bloomberg has a strategy for the black vote. Push gun control hard.

http://www...icle_inline&mod=article_inline

Blacks are overrepresented victims of firearms homicides and underrrepresented in gun ownership.

Now, for the only State that matters:

15% black. 12.4% nationally. Blacks are overrepresented in Florida.

Clinto failed to mobilized the black vote. She lost 1 black voter of 10 that Obama had in 2012.

Gunowership in Florida is 32%. Ranked 29 of States.

Bloomberg is dangerous. His ability to bury key states in cash is extremely potent where the key state numbers exactly 1.
jergul
large member
Sun Feb 09 10:52:55
To put spending in perspective. Say Bloomberg decided to pay for the transportation to the polls for every black voter in florida. It would only cost him 500 million at 20 bucks a ride.
Paramount
Member
Sun Feb 09 11:09:45
Well, Trump only needs to have his friend Kanye West to hold a rap festival with free entrance on election day to keep the blacks from going to the polls.

Cost for Trump: $0
jergul
large member
Sun Feb 09 11:15:52
Para
I am trying to think of a Stadum big enough to seat 25 million voters.
Paramount
Member
Sun Feb 09 11:23:37
Didn’t know there were that many blacks in Florida. But okay... maybe there can be several rap festivals all over Florida on election day. Both in stadiums and out out in open, on fields, on city squares, in clubs, etc.
Paramount
Member
Sun Feb 09 11:33:48
Although, the only rap artist who supports Trump may only be Kanye West, so maybe it will be hard to have several rap festivals on the election day.
jergul
large member
Sun Feb 09 11:40:08
Only 2.7 million black voters in Floria. My appologies.

I am not sure that even West would engage in blatant black voter suppression. But you never know.
jergul
large member
Sun Feb 09 11:42:14
But that is an idea.

Bloomberg could high country and western artists to perform both regular CandW + square dancing to round up the older republican crowd.

And pay uber to drive them to the concert and dance venues on election day.
jergul
large member
Sun Feb 09 11:42:38
hire*
Paramount
Member
Sun Feb 09 11:43:34
Kanye West said that slavery was a choice.
Habebe
Member
Sun Feb 09 12:12:23
Ive seen several polls lately show Trumps black approval rates in the low 30%....but again ive lived in N Philly, I live in SC... I just dont feel it I don't think those numbers really are on point or they wouldnt transfer to votes.

Bloomberg however pioneered stop and frisk and just doesnt connect with blacks.

The Cuban vote in Fla. Is Trumps Trump card, historically faborable to Republicans , religious/ anti abortion and anti socialist but Idk the current climate...

I can tell you In Philly Biden is liked by blacks, Sanders doesnt do bad.Pete having a. Husband I dont think will fair as well at least with men.
Habebe
Member
Sun Feb 09 12:12:24
Ive seen several polls lately show Trumps black approval rates in the low 30%....but again ive lived in N Philly, I live in SC... I just dont feel it I don't think those numbers really are on point or they wouldnt transfer to votes.

Bloomberg however pioneered stop and frisk and just doesnt connect with blacks.

The Cuban vote in Fla. Is Trumps Trump card, historically faborable to Republicans , religious/ anti abortion and anti socialist but Idk the current climate...

I can tell you In Philly Biden is liked by blacks, Sanders doesnt do bad.Pete having a. Husband I dont think will fair as well at least with men.
Wrath of Orion
Member
Sun Feb 09 12:13:31
Well, he does like fish dicks.
Habebe
Member
Sun Feb 09 12:14:38
Kanye isnt enough to sway votes for Trump.... Kim would do a better job.
Habebe
Member
Sun Feb 09 12:14:59
Wrath, In his mouth.
Wrath of Orion
Member
Sun Feb 09 12:15:19
People do like hobbits.
jergul
large member
Sun Feb 09 13:24:09
Habebe
Bloomberg kicked off his campaign with an appology to blacks and he called his key policy platform "The Greenwood initiative" (The tulsa massacre took place in Greenwood).

Bloomberg has in other words bought tons of talent and is approaching black voters in a systematic manner that involves asking for their advice, but never their money.

Not only is it a good strategy, it also is a trap. If Trump focuses on black issues, he does so with very small return potential and at a very high risk of alienating other voters to the point of their staying at home.

Btw. It will be Sanders or Bloomberg I think.

Bloomberg will kill Biden's chances by splitting his delegates. Same goes for Buttigieg's.
Habebe
Member
Sun Feb 09 13:44:50
Oh he said sorry? That makes it all good.

Honestly I'm not sure who would fair better nationwide, if Bernie loses the nomination Trump would gain some voters, but Bloomberg is the great democratic hope cause he has $, but money doesnt buy an election and Bloomberg under scrutiny wont garner much support.
jergul
large member
Sun Feb 09 13:52:52
Bloomberg is polling 4th nationally, but 2nd in Florida.
Habebe
Member
Sun Feb 09 14:11:39
So.... Most people have heard the name Bloomberg, not many know much about him. He isnt under much scrutiny. If he were nominated that would change.

The best bet for Bloomberg would to have another candidate run and just use his money for ads, I know your eyes lit up when you found out about Bloomberg cause you think he could win the presidency and best Trump.... He just isnt likeable and the more he is seen the less he is liked...too many negatives.

Bernie voters would flock to Trump over Bloomberg.
jergul
large member
Sun Feb 09 14:12:35
Nationwide does not matter. Its all about Florida.

We will see who Bloomberg chooses as a running mate if he wins. I am sure his choice will max out winning chances in Florida.

Stacey Abrams is a name. Bloomberg has donated 5 million to her Fair Fight Action and spoke there in January.

She also knows tons about voter suppression, so brings that to the table.
jergul
large member
Sun Feb 09 14:15:54
Habebe
More than they flocked to Trump instead of Clinton?

I think you are underestimating the degree of bitterness people felt over the DNC pushing their candidate.

Bloomberg is many things, but he is not DNCs candidate of choice. The spurned democrat theory would have more traction if Biden won. Particularly if there is any irregularities at one or more of the primaries ;).
jergul
large member
Sun Feb 09 14:17:10
I still don't care who wins. Have we not been through that?
Habebe
Member
Sun Feb 09 14:33:49
I think you under estimate how horrible of a human bloomberg is, and yes worse than Clinton and in the eyes of a Bernie supporter id guess worse, but i could be wrong.

This is a guy literally buying favor with DNC to change rules for him and more than anyone represents wall street establishment etc etc.
Habebe
Member
Sun Feb 09 14:35:13
That said id be thrilled to see Trump v. Bloomberg.
Forwyn
Member
Sun Feb 09 14:41:36
> Being black
> Supporting gun control

lul
Paramount
Member
Sun Feb 09 14:42:52
Does anyone know who (if anyone) aside from Trump that Israel favors?

That person might have a chance.
Habebe
Member
Sun Feb 09 17:10:18
Forwyn, It's even funnier if you. Think he thinks blacks will support Bloomberg of all people because of gun control.

Jergul seems to read up on info that agrees with his pov and I just dont think he truly understands Americans, I aint mad I mean he's Norwegian I dont know much about there elections.
Forwyn
Member
Sun Feb 09 20:28:33
He thinks that all people rationalize their worldviews in the way that he does - that is, in a way that emulates Agent Smith.

The black race is a monolith, A, and gun control B, paired with A, leads to less deaths of A, ergo B is de facto good and it's the reason blacks vote Democrat.

It ignores the mitigating factors, like C, that educated African Americans know that gun control has historically been aimed overwhelmingly at their people - whether from Democrats or mainstream Republicans like Reagan and Romney - or D, that even more than that just wholeheartedly believe in their intersectionalist victim mentality community planners, and will happily take their twenty Bloomberg Bucks™ and ride out to vote against the racists who want to take away their Obama phones and Section 8 housing.

His Architect algorithm paradigm is ludicrous
precisely because the only people retarded enough to vote for Bloomberg to strip away their own rights isn't thinking of it in terms of a black survival equation.
Dukhat
Member
Mon Feb 10 00:19:49
"educated African Americans know that gun control has historically been aimed overwhelmingly at their people"

And yet the more educated African Americans vote like the more educated whites which is to say the support new gun safety laws.

The rest of your post is absurd bullshit. Like fucking wow. You have to bend over yourself to rationalize your cuckoo fake-libertarian-actually-retard-republican beliefs.
jergul
large member
Mon Feb 10 00:32:24
I literally just segmented the election down to being all about Florida, and I am treating things as monoliths?

Bloomberg's superbowl ad was pretty clear on gun control.

I think that Bloomberg will structure his campaign to win Florida. I think he has the money and talent to win what essentially is a State election.

Stacey Abrams seems like someone who could be an inspire choice for running mate. I does place her on track for the presidency down the road.

What do educated black voters in Florida think of that potential?

Stricter gun laws can easily be packaged as gun laws that also apply to white people.

Gun ownership is even lower amongst hispanics than it is blacks.

Also, the strategy gives a reasonable chance of the October surprise being a school massacre somewhere. Trump would not only need to win Florida, he would need to win Florida without there being a significant mass shooting in the 6 weeks leading up to the election.

Para
Bloomberg is Jewish and has been activily campaigning in Jewish communities.
Forwyn
Member
Mon Feb 10 01:17:31
"You have to bend over yourself to rationalize your cuckoo fake-libertarian-actually-retard-republican beliefs."

Not really. Rights surrendered peacefully to the government are not returned, except through radically violent upheavals resulting in more death and destruction than a millennium of Western mass shootings.

Slightly elevated death rates due to gangland culture and economic disenfranchisement aren't especially convincing. Poor, redneck regions with a magnitude more weapons have lower firearm homicide rates.
Dukhat
Member
Mon Feb 10 01:51:41
The vast majority of Americans support responsible americans having access to reasonable means of armed defense.

Less and less people are buying the Republican talking point that universal background checks, waiting periods, and gun safety training are going to lead to some kind of dystopian America.

And at any rate, firearms are completely outdated as a means of a self-defense against tyranny. They don't do shit against tanks or jets or drones. It's a dumb argument.
jergul
large member
Mon Feb 10 02:50:14
To get back on track. The GOP is doing better than the Democrats on voter registration in Florida. It still has far fewer registered voters than the Democratic party, but is saw greater gains in 2019 compared to the Democrats. Though net gains are lethargic for both (GOP up 3,5k Democrats up 1k).
jergul
large member
Mon Feb 10 02:50:43
I thought I would help you out with an actual argument instead of trite adhoms.
jergul
large member
Mon Feb 10 02:53:10
Dukhat
That is not entirely true. Military grade fire-arms seem to have an empowering effect. Rebels start off with those, then supplement with more advanced technology as civil strife moves on.
jergul
large member
Mon Feb 10 02:55:38
The disjunct rests in stuff like supporting the boycott of Cuba. You need strong, authoritarian neighbours to spill weapon systems into the US when the Federal Government moves to take away your freedoms.
Habebe
Member
Mon Feb 10 04:55:34
In General being anti-gun in the US doesnt get you elected POTUS. You may be AG and still get elected. I doubt Fla. Is going to hinge on being ag, nor that a mass shooting would change that.

Keep in mind that in the US the right bear arms is as sacred as the right to free expression or to choose your god.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Mon Feb 10 05:25:43
jergul
large member
Mon Feb 10 05:28:05
Lucky/unluckily then that Bloomenberg is an advocate of common sense gun reform.

"...a national gun licensing system and stricter background checks, hundreds of millions of dollars in new enforcement spending and the passage of a federal red-flag law that would allow courts to temporarily confiscate firearms from people deemed dangerous"

An honest assessement is that Bloomenberg wants to federalize gun reform laws already in place in most if not all states.

Its more a State's right issue than it is a gun control one.

An unfortunately timed mass shooting might very well give the democratic candidate a point or two in Florida.

Everything hinges on many things going right for the GOP.

Trump may yet feel the pain for poor photo-optics and crap recovery in Puerto Rico. 200 000 Puerto Ricans have moved to Florida since the hurricanes.

The Commonwealth just enacted more rigid gun control laws with popular support.
Forwyn
Member
Mon Feb 10 09:13:06
"universal background checks, waiting periods, and gun safety training"

This is a strawman.

You're right that most people support these. But it's also true that these are used as scapegoats to get AWB, including mag bans, and red flag laws, passed.

Check out Virginia for a template.
-They initially propose AWB, mag bans, and red flag laws
-Sanctuary counties pop up, 2A protest planned
-VA Dems take office, propose scapegoat bills
-Threaten National Guard, declare state of emergency
-Deride "muh white nationalist extremist" protesters
-After peaceful protest, propose AWB, mag bans, and red flag law

California didn't stop at your scapegoat. Colorado didn't stop at your scapegoat. Connecticut didn't stop at your scapegoat. Hawaii didn't stop at your scapegoat. Maryland didn't stop at your scapegoat. Massachusetts didn't stop at your scapegoat. New Jersey didn't stop at your scapegoat. New York didn't stop at your scapegoat. Vermont didn't stop at your scapegoat.

The end result is joint task forces with state police and ATF goons raiding people for having 10+ round magazines or building 80% lowers, with probable cause established to steal all of their electronics and spend the next several years ruining their lives.

Muh common sense.
Forwyn
Member
Mon Feb 10 09:26:04
"And at any rate, firearms are completely outdated as a means of a self-defense against tyranny. They don't do shit against tanks or jets or drones. It's a dumb argument."

jergul knows more about this than you.

1. The second a US President authorizes drone and airstrikes on US soil, they will lose most support, even if they've played a good propaganda game ala Virginia. Even in Afghanistan and Iraq, we didn't level the nation. There is CAS, but it's use is specific and has requirements to limit collateral damage.
2. Drone operators and jet pilots are going to get tired of not being able to see their families because bases are in condition Delta and they're living in tents. As these conditions deescalate to C, B, and A, they get to start going home and get shot in their Honda Civic by a guy whose local YMCA was bombed with his brother inside because they were hosting a dissident meeting.
3. You don't assault your local NG base with pistols and shotguns. You assault it with subsonic .300 BLK, with .338 and .50 support, and seize their M249s and Abrams. You don't even have to go that far. The Obama administration has ensured that most local PDs in larger cities have access to low-level armor. You can snag Bearcats and M203s from your local piggies.
4. There is an entire generation of sandbox veterans that went through the asymmetric warfare gauntlet. They know what works, and what doesn't. Most have been trained in basic IED technology.

The government doesn't win by bombing it's civilian populace into submission, unless it's an Assad with foreign support, and willing to go full Lincoln.

It wins by shutting down cell/internet communications and mopping up dissident individuals and cells conventionally before they successfully adopt mesh communications, and other workarounds, to organize.
jergul
large member
Mon Feb 10 11:39:36
Forwyn
Not so much a strawman as what is politically possible to deliver. A GOP Senate may not block federalizing base-line gun restrictions and standards.

I am surprised you did not take the muh state rights argument I offered.
Forwyn
Member
Mon Feb 10 12:47:12
Under the current paradigm, the ATF can and does unilaterally declare what is legal to own on a whim, a few times a year.

States' rights are moot until General Welfare and Interstate Commerce are rolled back to pre-WWII/Great Depression era levels, except as a precept to limit rights even further than federal base lines.
TJ
Member
Mon Feb 10 12:51:45
Our Federal Republic is dying like a fruit that has been pierced. The rate of speed doesn't alter the final consequence. Damned if you do and damned if you don't. It's the peoples choices that set the time scale. All governmental forms are intrinsically cursed and human life is no different.

Does anyone recall the last time the USA was referred to in verbal exchange as a Federal Republic?
jergul
large member
Mon Feb 10 13:06:53
I mentioned it the last time I said Norway is a Unitary Constitutional Monarchy.
jergul
large member
Mon Feb 10 13:08:21
Also, Entropy is a bitch :D.
jergul
large member
Mon Feb 10 13:22:18
What do you fellows think of Stacey Abrams as a VP candidate for Bloomberg or Sanders?

TJ
Member
Mon Feb 10 13:24:50
Entropy being a bitch depends on perspective, :D.

Thanks for substantiating the rarity having to mention yourself. I can call a pig a cow, but you'd still be eating pork. :)
patom
Member
Mon Feb 10 13:31:32
http://www.memecenter.com/fun/1256107/100-beef-chicken
jergul
large member
Mon Feb 10 15:17:32
TJ
I think most are aware that the US is a Federal Republic.

There are some irregularities to the system, but people do not riot in the streets when the persons with the most votes do not become presidents.

The electoral college is accepted and is perhaps the most profound demonstration that the US is indeed a Federation.

I think the contrast you are looking for rests mostly along the Federal-Unitary dimension, not the Republic-Monarchy one.
TJ
Member
Mon Feb 10 15:28:57
jergul:

Nah, I'm only observing the irregularities from originality.
kargen
Member
Mon Feb 10 15:29:59
I'm not sure the number of black people or the percentage of black people that will vote for President Trump matters. The number of black people that vote Republican is fairly consistent though President Trump might pull slightly better numbers.
What does matter is the turnout. How many decide to go and vote matters much more than how many decide to vote Republican. Democrats need a turn out among black voters similar to what President Obama pulled.

Gun control in Florida probably isn't a winning strategy. It isn't an issue that will draw supporting voters out that otherwise might have stayed home. It could inspire a few pro gun people that wouldn't vote to show up. Pro gun people can be really motivated when they think someone wants to take their guns. Either way though I don't think gun control issues in Florida is going to make a big difference.
jergul
large member
Mon Feb 10 15:59:26
Kargen
For Bloomberg, it just matters that the net sum is not negative. I agree that generally, it will not impact much, but it is a matter Democrats tend to care about. But there is a certain chance that a badly timed mass shooting could give significant gains.

The irony of knowing the likely vice presidental candidate before we know who the presidential candidate will be.
jergul
large member
Mon Feb 10 16:05:53
Kargen
The Democrats can probably do with less than Obama levels of black turn out. 200 0000 Puerto Ricans have also landed in Florida recently.

VP candidate for any democrat will probably be suited to mobilize the black and woman vote. Both tend to vote democrat.

Voter reform does give more felons the vote. They tend to vote democrat.

An immigration influx from Puerto Rico. That tend to vote democrat.

A lot of things have to go right for Trump to take Florida, and not many things can go wrong.
patom
Member
Mon Feb 10 16:10:16
Actually felons don't seem all that interested in voting. In the 8 years I worked at the jail, I only recall 2 inmates requesting absentee ballots.
Maine is one of 2 states that does not bar anyone from voting.
jergul
large member
Mon Feb 10 16:28:21
Patom
I was using the term loosely. Former felons that are off probation and back in society can vote in Florida if they have paid their court fines.

Florida is a margins game. It is very close to start.

============

http://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3655

A national poll. Worth reading.
kargen
Member
Mon Feb 10 17:12:10
The groups you listed historically (other than women) have low voter turnout. Democrats would dominate if that were not true. President Trump is going to be able to generate a better than average turnout of conservative voters by continuing the us against the world rhetoric.
Hispanic people registered to vote in Florida has increased but most have registered with no affiliation to a party. More have registered as Democrat than Republican but again it is about turnout. Democrats haven't found the thing that will motivate people to go to the polls. There is a ton of time left so maybe they can get their shit together. If they are going to depend on the VP pick to bring in minority voters they will probably fall short.
Looking at third party candidates so far I don't see any that will make much of a difference in the totals.
If the economy stays good the Democrats have even more of a hill to climb. We hate President Trump a lot isn't going to win.
jergul
large member
Mon Feb 10 17:20:50
Here is what the democrats said. IF you wanted to elect Sanders, but someone else won the candidacy, what would you do.

85% would still vote for either Biden or Bloomberg (they are tied).

If you reversed the question 92% of Biden supporters would still vote for Sanders, but only 83% of Bloomberg supporters would vote for Sanders.

97% of Biden supporters would vote Bloomberg and vice versa.

================

This is the important number to look at going forward. There is no real cost to not choosing Biden, but a real cost to not choosing Bloomberg or Sanders.

The democrats paid that real cost last election cycle.
TJ
Member
Mon Feb 10 19:04:54
New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg tried to ban big soft drinks. Can one be more of a controller of liberty? If he becomes the nominee the election ads will get comical, like-->He didn't like cups that were taller than him and who ate the gingerbread man.
Habebe
Member
Mon Feb 10 19:38:57
"Luck/unlucky then that Bloomenberg is an advocate of common sense gun reform."

In Soviet Jergul land ( yes, i stole that from Sam)

You come from a place that demonized gun ownership. He was still supports the assault weapons ban which many elections have shown is unpopular here.


If he comes out saying that he wants to generalize gun control laws he will be about as popular as Walter Mondale.

Thats like forcing all Muslims to sign a federal registry, go through background checks etc.
Habebe
Member
Mon Feb 10 19:40:26
I wish Bloomberg would be nominated, its just a snowballs chance in hell. Isnt he missing like 1/3 of possible delegates as in abstaining from those races so no chance.
Habebe
Member
Mon Feb 10 19:57:12
"Voter reform does give more felons the vote. They tend to vote democrat."

Idk, I think felons would feel more comfortable with the Teflon Don.

Kargen, I dont think anyone really votes for a vp, if anything they no d of take the edge off an extreme candidate like Obama or Trump.

Also remember Trump won 57% of 2016 florida Hispanics.
jergul
large member
Tue Feb 11 01:00:41
Habebe
I come from a place where the State gave me an old military grade firearm to keep at home when I was 15 and gave me the combination to no less than 4 military storage bunkers (they were unguarded and secured by combination code padlocks).

Gunownership is very high and a large proportion of reserve forces have their service weapons with ammunition at home. The ammunition is secured by keeping it sealed in plastic bags. On the bags it is written: Do not open without orders.

I personally have carried weapons on a great number of occassions. Most memorable perhaps is polar bear guard duties.

You need a license of course. It is granted if you have a worthy purpose, you have no active criminal record (the records are purged regularly) amd are not registered as certifiably insane.

Sir Anders is an example of how easy it is to get arms.

Anyway, it is a State rights issue more than it is a gun control issue.

His position is a matter of record. Nationally, Bloomberg has the best margin of victory over Trump of all potential candidates.

===============

Reverse order

54% of Cuban Americans voted Trump
74% of non Cuban Hispanics voted Hillary

The question is if the correct choice vp will get voters to vote more than they would otherwise.

The florida State government certainly does not think that. It placed some barriers on felon voter registration.

The number is closer to 1/30th of delegates than it is 1/3rd.

==========================

Sanders got 35% of the nomination vote in Florida. If 15% of his supporters did not vote for Clinton = 225k voters.

Trump won florida by 113k votes.
Habebe
Member
Tue Feb 11 01:49:30
"Just How Unsettled The Race Is

EU-0207-4×3
ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / FABIO BUONOCORE
FEB. 7, 2020, AT 4:35 PM

Election Update: There’s A New Face In Our Forecast. (It’s Bloomberg.)
By Nate Silver

Filed under 2020 Election

As of Friday, you’ll see a shiny new face in our Democratic primary forecast: former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg. We’re now featuring Bloomberg more prominently in our forecast interactive and in our polling averages; he joins four other candidates (Sen. Bernie Sanders; former Vice President Joe Biden; former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg; and Sen. Elizabeth Warren) who get their own color in the forecast (in Bloomberg’s case, gold). Bloomberg has always been in the underlying calculations and the detailed output behind the model,1 but he was lumped in with “all others” on many of the charts, making him hard to find.

Bloomberg is a tricky candidate to forecast, given that his strategy of essentially skipping the first four states but then spending enormous amounts of money on the race is fairly unprecedented. Although Bloomberg is at only 11 percent in national polls right now — below the 15 percent threshold required to pick up delegates in states and congressional districts — he’s getting close enough to the threshold that the model actually has him picking up a decent number of delegates in its average simulation.


On the other hand, the model thinks it’s quite unlikely that Bloomberg can get a majority of delegates because he’s getting off to a late start. It’s not that skipping out on Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina is itself all that costly; those states have relatively few delegates. Rather, it’s that Bloomberg is unlikely to have a huge surge before Super Tuesday.

Here’s why that matters. Bloomberg could certainly do reasonably well on Super Tuesday and get a surge in later states. But at that point, 38 percent of delegates will already have been chosen. Say Bloomberg wins 30 percent of the delegates on Super Tuesday; that would certainly get him some attention, probably make him a real contender, and perhaps knock other moderate candidates out of the race. Bloomberg, however, would need to get 64 percent of the delegates in all the states beyond Super Tuesday to earn a majority of pledged delegates, which is an awfully high bar to clear."

Its your favorite source btw. With theyre robustly robust data....robust.

Now people have fought similar or tougher odds ( Trump).


But Mike is an unchatismatic rich guy who's policies show a disdain for the poor and people of color....he is no Trump nor an Obama....his only true asset is his fuck ton of money....Trump was vastly outspent before and won all the same verse a more formidable opponent and with no record to run on, now he has a record to run on that most Americans think he is doing a good job at ( economy)
Habebe
Member
Tue Feb 11 01:55:47
http://fiv...in-our-forecast-its-bloomberg/

Here is the link for the full article.
jergul
large member
Tue Feb 11 02:10:12
Its 38% with Super Tuesday delegates. If Bloomberg gets 30% on Super Tuesday, then the democrats will almost certainly end up with a brokered convention.

Its actually less than 1/30th of delegates before super tuesday.

The "at least the trains run on time" argument on a good economy supporting Trump is already part of his approval rating.

It is actually a weakness. Another condition that must remain true for Trump to have a chance in hell to win Florida.
Habebe
Member
Tue Feb 11 02:25:08
Of course you would associate a good economy with Fascism.....

You really seem to think Bloomberg has a good shot at the office. I hope your wrong about that, I think your wrong about that.
jergul
large member
Tue Feb 11 02:42:44
Habebe
There is something about the way Trump holds his head for emphasis that gave the association.

http://giphy.com/gifs/trump-donald-benito-xpR95dc7KD9vi

But you are making a one-trick pony argument. A valid one as opinion polls support it.

I think Sanders and Bloomberg have about an equal shot of winning Florida and with it the election.

Biden is not a good democratic candidate because people that prefer him are happy to vote for either Sanders or Bloomberg.

Bloomberg voters are not happy to vote for either Sanders or Biden.

Sanders voters are not happy to vote for either Bloomberg or Biden.
jergul
large member
Tue Feb 11 02:48:39
To put it this way. If the economy starts to soften (btw, since when is 2.1% growth strong? There is not much margin to soft), then who can best capitalise on it? Bloomberg or Sanders?

I think Bloomberg.
Habebe
Member
Tue Feb 11 03:11:35
I wonder how well bloombergs voters know him.

Biden is no longer a good candidate, that we agree on. He never was great but still, he is all but done.

I really think he has too many negatives that once they are fully vetted out would make Bloomberg in electable.
jergul
large member
Tue Feb 11 04:05:47
What do you think Bloomberg has done wrong since he was last fully vetted out?

I frankly don't think negatives matter much this cycle. Given that all democratic candidate negatives will be measured against the percieved negatives of the alternative Trump.

Trump does not poll well at all amongst democrats and democrat leaning voters.
TJ
Member
Tue Feb 11 10:29:11
Politics play to the shallow. Evidently they believe they are voting for a President who can wave his/her scepter establishing law with a proclamation void Congress approval.

Purchase your lottery ticket.

Habebe
Member
Tue Feb 11 12:26:09
You think Bloomberg has been fully vetted?

Just a few years ago Bloomberg said

"95% of your murders and murderers and murder victims fit one M.O. You can just take the description and Xerox it and pass it out to all the cops. They are male minorities 15 to 25."

"People say, 'Oh my God, you are arresting kids for marijuana who are all minorities.' Yes, that's true. Why? Because we put all the cops in the minority neighborhoods. Yes, that's true. Why'd we do it? Because that's where all the crime is. And the way you should get the guns out of the kids' hands is throw them against the wall and frisk them,"


This isnt 20 years ago, this is last POTUS election times....

http://www...rg-s-2015-race-talk-stirs-deba
Habebe
Member
Tue Feb 11 12:56:30
“[W]e disproportionately stop whites too much and minorities too little.”

How about this gem?

http://spe...mbergs-anti-minority-campaign/
Habebe
Member
Tue Feb 11 13:10:30
“guns need to be kept out of the hands of minorities in order to keep them alive.” -bloomberg

This guy is just out of pocket.
jergul
large member
Tue Feb 11 13:59:03
Not exactly "grab them by the pussy" calibre. Look on the bright side. You can create your very own series of threads on shit Bloomberg says if he does win the election.

I am sure swordtail will be honoured.
Habebe
Member
Tue Feb 11 14:12:14
If Bloomberg wins the nomination Trump could possibly gain a majority of the black vote, not just the 15% he is trying for.

The nominee will be known on super Tuesday most likely.
swordtail
Anarchist Prime
Tue Feb 11 14:24:11
"I am sure swordtail will be honoured."

humbled even !!!!!!!!!
jergul
large member
Tue Feb 11 14:38:08
Habebe
I should warn you that we do have a forum archivist who sometimes archives insane things like someone thinking Trump might get the majority of black votes, or even 15% of them.

For actual data. Bloomberg is polling at 22 amongst black liberal and liberal leaning voters (second place behind Biden's 27%). Compared to 15% overall. 17% of blacks think Bloomberg has the best chance of beating Trump.

Same link as earlier.

Super Tuesday is unlikely to provide clarity, though it should narrow the field.
jergul
large member
Tue Feb 11 14:40:06
If you wonder how that could possibly be true, then simply apply what is true for the majority of Trump's voters. He may be a horrible person, but he is our horrible person.
jergul
large member
Tue Feb 11 14:43:46
Note that above polling is before Abrams is chosen as VP.
jergul
large member
Tue Feb 11 14:44:33
vp candidate* She works with both Sanders and Bloomberg. Not so much with Biden. He did not endorse her Georgia campaign.
Habebe
Member
Tue Feb 11 15:49:49
Jergul, Archive away. There are several polls put Trump at like 30% with blacks...I personally am skeptical they will turn to votes, but compared to Bloomberg?!who has literally said recently to throw blacks against the wall and frisk them, they shouldn't own guns , they commit 95% of the crime etc.
jergul
large member
Tue Feb 11 16:15:57
I am not the archivist. Good that you personally are sceptical and are merely a vehicle conveying crazy shit you found on the internet.
jergul
large member
Tue Feb 11 17:55:05
Breaking News
Bloomberg won Dixville Notch, NH in a convincing write-in victory.
Habebe
Member
Tue Feb 11 18:19:01
Are you being sarcastic or serious?
TJ
Member
Tue Feb 11 18:23:31
lmao

jergul
large member
Wed Feb 12 02:48:18
Habebe
Why do you even ask stupid crap like that?

I was being facetious.
Habebe
Member
Wed Feb 12 09:07:51
Jergul, Cause you say dumb shit.
jergul
large member
Wed Feb 12 10:12:13
Sometimes perhaps, but I am far more often clever, sarcastic, or facetious.

You need not ask when it is patently obvious.
Habebe
Member
Wed Feb 12 11:01:19
Listen I don't mean it offensivley, if I were to speak on Norway I realize that some things don't always come across well in news articles and stats.
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