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Utopia Talk / Politics / Bernie wins Nev
superdude
Member
Sat Feb 22 15:32:53
Ohh no!! Bernie's perfect blend of communist policies and high taxes will defeat Trump's Keep America great agenda.

(Laughs manically)
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Sat Feb 22 15:46:17
^a nice illustration of why Russia would support Bernie in primaries if really supporting Trump overall (as simple common sense would suggest)
Renzo Marquez
Member
Sat Feb 22 15:49:42
LOL. Better check for Boris and Natasha under your bed before you go to sleep.
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Sat Feb 22 15:56:50
just noting as certain people are struggling to see why Russia might support Bernie when they really want Trump
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Sat Feb 22 15:57:51
via reporter:
"Buttigieg beat Sanders at a Reno caucus site by pulling a 3 card. Sanders people pulled a 2."

go Pete! (tie-breakers done by high card draw)
Habebe
Member
Sat Feb 22 16:45:41
The issue isnt believing why it could possibly be as much as the Hillary people seem to have added there own narrative... And anyone who claims Trump is corrupt and NOT Hillary are fooling themselves.
Habebe
Member
Sat Feb 22 16:47:12
Also i should note that the national security advisor says no intelligence to back up these new claims from the house intel committee.
Forwyn
Member
Sat Feb 22 17:00:23
"go Pete! (tie-breakers done by high card draw)"

Better than Iowa faggots fake coin flipping and auto-calling it for Pete
Renzo Marquez
Member
Sat Feb 22 18:13:56
LOL@tw rooting for a brokered convention where establishment Dems screw Bernie. That would maximize Trump's odds of winning. Then tw would blame muh russia again for Dems' stupidity after the election.
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Sat Feb 22 18:26:44
i said specifically that is the nightmare scenario (in one of these threads)... so 'rooting' does not fit, at all
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Sat Feb 22 18:28:52
also, i'm not panicking about Russia interference

i've been upset that Trump is being a traitorous liar about it just like before... something people should care about

no idea why people got over Helsinki simply as he claimed an obvious lie excuse that didn't even explain anything
Renzo Marquez
Member
Sat Feb 22 18:30:46
tumbleweed
the wanderer Sat Feb 22 18:26:44
"i said specifically that is the nightmare scenario (in one of these threads)... so 'rooting' does not fit, at all"

Unless he dies, Bernie is the only one capable of having a majority of delegates going into the convention.
Renzo Marquez
Member
Sat Feb 22 18:31:23
So rooting for Mayor AIDS to win delegates is rooting for a brokered convention.
Renzo Marquez
Member
Sat Feb 22 18:32:50
Russian interference is a joke. That's been clear from the start. Russian interference was obviously the new Iraqi WMDs.
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Sat Feb 22 18:41:17
it's a bit early to say Bernie is the only one capable... a bit early for that conclusion

right now there's an apple w/ lots of oranges... if some oranges drop out, an orange can win

they really need a system to deal w/ that problem, same thing happened w/ Trump, i'm skeptical Trump would've won if he hadn't had the large field of mentally-sound oranges to his deranged coconut
Renzo Marquez
Member
Sat Feb 22 18:46:33
tumbleweed
the wanderer Sat Feb 22 18:41:17
"right now there's an apple w/ lots of oranges... if some oranges drop out, an orange can win"

Isn't Bernie beating all of the other candidates in 1v1 polling? There's this corporate press fantasy that if all but one of the other candidates dropped out, the remaining non-Bernie candidate would get all that support. It's not true.
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Sat Feb 22 18:56:04
New Hampshire:

25% Bernie Sanders
24% Pete Buttigieg
20% Amy Klobuchar
9% Elizabeth Warren
8% Joe Biden

whose 2nd choice is Bernie? some of Warren's maybe... if that's a 2-person race, i'm not betting on Bernie (but i could be wrong)

i'm not against Bernie, he just seems riskiest choice so not for him either (i don't care about anyone's specific policies, & medicare for all isn't passing congress so doesn't matter... i just want Trump gone)

i don't want a brokered convention w/ Bernie appleness at 40% & 60% split amongst oranges for example, as that's disastrous
Renzo Marquez
Member
Sat Feb 22 19:19:18
tumbleweed
the wanderer Sat Feb 22 18:56:04
"New Hampshire:

25% Bernie Sanders
24% Pete Buttigieg
20% Amy Klobuchar
9% Elizabeth Warren
8% Joe Biden"

LOL. Mayor AIDS and Combuchar have virtually 0 minority support. Biden is senile. Warren has no support outside of eggless white cat ladies. They overperformed in NH and Iowa compared to what they would do anywhere else. NH is an old and white state. Bernie does better with younger and minority voters. NV is more representative of the Dem electorate than NH. None of these clowns can come close to Bernie.
Habebe
Member
Sat Feb 22 19:33:30
Honestly if Bernie dropped his total fracking ban he IMHO would give Trump a run for his money. I think Trump would win as well. But I think Trump would beat all of them. That said I also hope Trump will win so there is likely some bias in that opinion.
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Sat Feb 22 20:01:12
it'll be a lot clearer after Mar 3 (probably)

if Bernie is dominating so be it, those youngins better turn out in November
Habebe
Member
Sat Feb 22 20:13:43
Excited voters wims elections. With Obama people were excited to an insane degree.

Who is excited by Biden, Bloomberg, Warren, Pete or Klobuchar?

Trumps base would vote him im as Emperor.

In Iowa when they all had pre caucus rallies they were lobbies, except Bernie who looked like he sold out a stadium.

Thats why they have a chance.
Renzo Marquez
Member
Sat Feb 22 20:18:22
tumbleweed
the wanderer Sat Feb 22 20:01:12
"it'll be a lot clearer after Mar 3 (probably)"

We'll know soon. Wait to see if Bloomberg starts running anti-Bernie ads.
Habebe
Member
Sat Feb 22 20:30:09
Bloomberg needs to take down Sanders -- immediately

CNNs headline....hahaha
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Sat Feb 22 22:06:53
CNN odds-maker gives Bernie a 70% chance to get most delegates (which if a plurality not majority is pure disaster)

thus reinforcing my theory Trump sold his soul to the devil (who is Jared Kushner probably) as things just seem to fall his way
Habebe
Member
Sat Feb 22 22:27:08
Trumps candidacy was sort of heading into a perfect storm time wise... I'll give you that he has gotten lucky.

Realistically though, other than Jergul doesn anyone think BB could win? No.

If not Bernie than who? Biden? Earlier on I could see that, but again no one is excited about him.


If Obama could run again Id say that he would likely beat Trump, because he excites people.

Habebe
Member
Sat Feb 22 22:27:08
Trumps candidacy was sort of heading into a perfect storm time wise... I'll give you that he has gotten lucky.

Realistically though, other than Jergul doesn anyone think BB could win? No.

If not Bernie than who? Biden? Earlier on I could see that, but again no one is excited about him.


If Obama could run again Id say that he would likely beat Trump, because he excites people.

tumbleweed
the wanderer
Sat Feb 22 22:41:14
excitement is important, but disgusting filth Trump generates plenty of negative excitement as evidenced in the midterms
Habebe
Member
Sat Feb 22 23:01:53
Agreed, those that dont like him tend to HATE him and that will bring people out. Which is why i said the other day that the best candidate may be a generic democrat... Other than Bernie butnhe does come with his mixed bag of downsides in an election. ( total ban on fracking)
Forwyn
Member
Sun Feb 23 00:15:16
Bloomberg is the only candidate of the current crop that generates disgust levels on par with Trump and Hillary
jergul
large member
Sun Feb 23 01:37:50
habebe
Bloomberg har a route to the presidency. Bloomberg has the same my candidate or bust effect that Sanders has.

Sanders still has about 50% chance of winning the nomination. Preferrably by far through a majority of delegates.
Habebe
Member
Sun Feb 23 02:05:37
What is his realistic* path to the potus?
Habebe
Member
Sun Feb 23 02:08:17
Biden maybe, it doesn't look good for him ATM and is unlikely but possible.

I just don't see BB making a comeback before he has won anything.

For fucks sake Warren raped him on stage, what do you think Trump would do?!?!
jergul
large member
Sun Feb 23 02:20:07
Habebe
Why, by winning Florida of course.

Bloomberg has no vulnerabilities that Trump can exploit. Warren "destroyed him" by calling him a mini trump.

Bloomberg would crush Trump if his tax returns are ever released or leaked factually.

You know the numbers are going to suck badly.

If that does not materialize, then he will simply crush Trump the old fashioned way with cash in exactly 1 key state.
jergul
large member
Sun Feb 23 02:28:29
You may have missed the details of Nevada, but Sanders did extremely well with minority voters. This matters for Florida.
TJ
Member
Sun Feb 23 09:53:14
The democratic primary.

1)Billionaire trying to buy the nomination from a fractured party.
2)Crazy Bernie promising the Country way more than he can deliver.

Two dudes who can't decide in which party they belong.

The corpse of F. Rrusevelt(Roosevelt) has raised his dead head in the Democratic Party. History rhymes...

An internationalist and an isolationist.

Brilliant choices...

I'm not going to underestimate flat face Pete and his exercised tight lipped smile this early.

Putin is chuckling repeatedly like a clock ticks.
jergul
large member
Sun Feb 23 10:46:06
TJ
The issue is with the two party system.

1. It is illegal to buy votes in the USA. This would include votes for nominations as presidential candidates.

2. MAGA blew the roof off undeliverable promises. Trump cured cancer remember? The great C defeated!

Wow. Impressive. Delivered? You be the judge.

===============

Bloomberg is still polling really well in Florida where the election will be determined. Sanders did remarkably well with blacks and hispanics in Nevada. Blacks and Hispanics will determine the outcome in Florida.

Either way. Both are strong on the environment. Which is an actual global issue I can get behind. And they can both executive order delivery on that.

Putin chuckling with skadefryd? I doubt it. His assements are generally based on what he thinks is best for Russia. MOGA? (Make Ochestvo Great Again).
jergul
large member
Sun Feb 23 10:51:54
Buttigieg? 5% for majority of delegates outright another 5% for chances of getting and winning a contested convention. 1 chance in 10.

Chances. Today's estimate:

Sanders - 50%
Bloomenberg - 20%
Biden - 15%
Buttigieg - 10%
Everyone else - 5%
TJ
Member
Sun Feb 23 11:07:46
The World Turns.

Que Sera Sera
What will be will be.

Your view of purchase is narrowly scoped.
The Putin comment was for the 3 time Russia humor.

Which is it, your unwillingness to address my post or inability to comprehend? Believe it or not there was no mention of Trump. You know, the democratic primary nuts and bolts.

Unleash the animal...
jergul
large member
Sun Feb 23 11:18:36
TJ
Campaign funding in general seems too wide in scope.

I did engage on the points I found relevant. Trump was an unlikely outsider who won the nomination, then won the presidency.

Of course it changes perspectives on what can be a viable candidate in either party.

Doom and gloom over politician policies being hard to deliver on in the real world seemed a bit outlandish when viewed against the backdrop of Trump and the MAGA doctrine.

It seems to work and people don't seem to care that promises cannot be kept.

Context is king. Even in a world of nuts and bolts.
TJ
Member
Sun Feb 23 11:26:26
I noticed your view on relevancy. Remember, it is your view of what is relevant.

The democratic party has a dilemma to resolve before the National election. Not much different in relevancy than the 2016 election and on that we agree.
jergul
large member
Sun Feb 23 11:27:37
Incidentally, of all possible candidates, Trump is most likely do become president. Today's estimate:

Trump - 45%
Sanders - 27.5%
Bloomberg - 11%
Biden - 8.25%
Buttigieg - 5.5%
Everyone else - 2.25%
TJ
Member
Sun Feb 23 11:31:12
More often than not it is a choice of two evils.

Relevant perspective. I'am beginning to understand your 95%.
TJ
Member
Sun Feb 23 11:35:13
50/45
45/50

Probably not the way you had envisioned.
jergul
large member
Sun Feb 23 11:41:04
A few bookmakers could probably give you the nuts and bolts on what chance each candidate has of becoming president currently.

Bookmakers do not make up 5% of your population.
TJ
Member
Sun Feb 23 11:46:45
Yep, I was right. Not the way you have envisioned with your variable scales. Its come down to a gamble.
jergul
large member
Sun Feb 23 11:47:57
President 42.1% of the time is Trump's current bookie odds. You should place a bet if you think it significantly more likely.
jergul
large member
Sun Feb 23 11:50:07
I prefer to view it in terms of uncountable alternate universes. How many will have president Sanders, how many president Trump, etc?

But of course we are only talking of odds. No one is clairvoyant, no matter what they might think.
TJ
Member
Sun Feb 23 11:55:55
This early I think all things are possible. I don't project on emotions that can be changeable in an instant. Some instances are more important than others.
jergul
large member
Sun Feb 23 11:59:51
hehe, that will probably be helpful for some.

Todays estimate:

Of 10 000 alternate universes, President Trump in 4500, President Sanders in 2750, President Bloomberg in 1100, President Biden in 825, President Buttigieg in 550, and someone else in 225.

Choose your universe carefully (or know that you are a winner somewhere).
TJ
Member
Sun Feb 23 12:04:47
I have only one universe.

Needs, wants and feelings are the nuts and bolts, but don't forget the lock washers. :D
jergul
large member
Sun Feb 23 12:08:54
I have to say. Trump's bookie odds suck.

Here is a CT for you: Some random billionaire's campaign might be manipulating the booking odds under the assumption that some people use bookie odds as a proxy to see how much support someone has.
jergul
large member
Sun Feb 23 12:13:19
http://www...ts-bloomberg-sanders-president
TJ
Member
Sun Feb 23 12:17:38
CT's have always been a spoke in the wheel.
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Sun Feb 23 12:17:45
imagine the universe where everyone could see Trump for what he is & they all walked out at his very first rally...


dem·a·gogue
/ˈdeməˌɡäɡ/
a political leader who seeks support by appealing to the desires and prejudices of ordinary people rather than by using rational argument.

fraud
/frôd/
a person or thing intended to deceive others, typically by unjustifiably claiming or being credited with accomplishments or qualities.

li·ar
/ˈlī(ə)r/
a person who tells lies.


it's like they were written just for him
TJ
Member
Sun Feb 23 12:20:51
Bloomberg productions, who'd thunk.
TJ
Member
Sun Feb 23 12:23:42
Interchange with politician.
jergul
large member
Sun Feb 23 13:40:30
Update - What % of 10 000 universes.
Trump - 45%
Sanders - 32%
Biden - 11%
Bloomberg - 8%
Warren 2%
Buttigieg - 1%
Everyone else - 1%
jergul
large member
Sun Feb 23 14:15:53
Current status. In 10 0000 alternate realities. Who will be president?

4500 universes - President Trump
3200 universes - President Sanders
1100 universes - President Biden
800 universes - President Bloomberg
200 universes - President Warren
100 universes - President Buttigieg
100 universes - President Someone else

===========

Format fixed :).
jergul
large member
Sun Feb 23 14:21:20
TW
Trump only won his first term in 2000 of the 10000 universes back in 2016. There are 8000 perfectly content Tumbleweeds. There must be some comfort in that :). Luck of the draw is all.
Renzo Marquez
Member
Sun Feb 23 15:00:27
Do you use this at all jergul?

http://www.predictit.org/markets/1/Dem-Nomination

A lot of times the sum of the implied probabilities exceeds 100%. But not bad for watching trends. And provides some arbitrage opportunities if you do put some money in play.
jergul
large member
Sun Feb 23 15:30:07
RM
No, I became aware of its existence when I read that article in the link I posted when I was checking how easy it is to manipulate trends for that CT theory.

Alas, its for Americans only. There seems to be some opportunities.
jergul
large member
Sun Feb 23 15:34:25
"Luck of the draw is all"

I am not saying Trump was lucky to win the election. I am saying this manifestation of Trump was lucky to exist in the universe where he won.

And our TW was unlucky to manifest in this universe instead of a different one.
TJ
Member
Sun Feb 23 17:45:10
jergul:

I just read an article by Onar ÅM about Trump. I take you are probably fairly familiar of his existence. Give me your opinion on the manm if you have one, and I imagine you do.
Habebe
Member
Sun Feb 23 17:48:25
"right now there's an apple w/ lots of oranges... if some oranges drop out, an orange can win

they really need a system to deal w/ that problem, same thing happened w/ Trump"

Well, don't forget that the DNC helped Trump out earlier on brcause they assumed HRC could beat him.
jergul
large member
Sun Feb 23 17:50:11
TJ
I have not heard of him.
TJ
Member
Sun Feb 23 17:53:46
jergul:

He is a long time entrepreneur, philosopher, published author and a well-known figure in the Norwegian blogosphere.
TJ
Member
Sun Feb 23 18:06:43
Seems he identifies as a minarchist. Probably why you are unfamiliar.
jergul
large member
Sun Feb 23 19:02:01
People self-identify as many things. Its a spectrum :-).

I checked. He is not what I would consider active in the Norwegian discourse.

He is by far most active for Liberty Nation. Lets call him an "International Correspondent" and leave it at that.
jergul
large member
Sun Feb 23 19:03:31
Sort it under "No one can be a prophet in his own land" if you like :).
TJ
Member
Sun Feb 23 19:12:03
:D, spectrum indeed, including facade.

His take on Trump was interesting just the same.
TJ
Member
Sun Feb 23 19:13:30
I rather prefer "No one can be a living prophet".
Habebe
Member
Sun Feb 23 21:23:10
Has anyone in modern history swept the first three states like Bernie? Cause I dint remember it ever being so one sided.
TJ
Member
Sun Feb 23 21:29:16
No
Habebe
Member
Sun Feb 23 21:58:48
Holy shit, I googled it.

First EVER republican or Democrat!

http://www...-3-three-early-1488638%3famp=1

I really think people underestimate him.

I may back down om my theory that Trump will definitley win.
Turtle Crawler
Admin
Sun Feb 23 22:23:03
We are getting quickly to the end of whites voting for Dems. Election looks basically over now. Sanders wins the primary. Trump wins general, and it's not close.
Habebe
Member
Sun Feb 23 22:42:37
I still think Trump will win. But if Bernie can turn out people like Obama it may not benthe landslide people ate guessing.

At the very least I think something will have to get done on health care.
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Sun Feb 23 23:04:45
don't worry, Trump is promising 'brand new preexisting' & 'a great healthcare that's much less expensive'

that's all his voters need to hear anyway
jergul
large member
Mon Feb 24 01:21:08
You would think ssomeone sweeping the 3 first states would have more than 50% chance of getting the majority of delegates in the nomination process. He has only 38 of 89 delegates so far.

Sanders got a pass last debate. Which was a bit odd given his frontrunner status.

Trump will indeed be president in 4500 of 10000 universes. The only question in front of us is if this universe will be one of them.

Its still all about Florida, We will see what candidate the Democratic party eventually elects. I think that decision ultimately is more likely than not to rest on what internal polling tells the DNC.
Habebe
Member
Mon Feb 24 03:01:07
"He has only 38 of 89 delegates so far."

Which is infinitely more than b
BB who has 0 by choice. What a waste of a billion dollars.

I would also remind you delegates are frequently not chosen by peoples votes or even set rules but by individuals flipping coins in secret.
jergul
large member
Mon Feb 24 03:06:58
I have no idea of what your point is.
jergul
large member
Mon Feb 24 03:44:11
Dow futures are down 1.5% right now. A combo of corona and news of the first monthly service sector contraction since 2014?

Trump no longer needs a strong economy to win?
Habebe
Member
Mon Feb 24 03:53:50
Idk how this will play out with the economy. The global economy has troubling signs. This could play out very bad for Trump pr very well depending on how this plays out.
Habebe
Member
Mon Feb 24 03:55:28
I've seriously thought a lot about how this will affect whoever is elected because the chances of a recession in the next election cycle are pretty high.
Turtle Crawler
Admin
Mon Feb 24 14:09:51
In the end with the economy, what matters on the margins is that the US is noticably better than the rest of the world, which it is.
jergul
large member
Mon Feb 24 15:07:32
So the economy no longer matters now that the outlook might not be as promising as on Friday?

Trump should already be throwing poop at the Federal Reserve from India. We should check his tweet feed.
Habebe
Member
Mon Feb 24 15:42:43
Did I say the economy no longer matters? Trump has resided over a great economy and he will push that narrative for reelection.

A majority of Americans approve of Trumps handling of the economy much more than admit to approving his overall job performance.
hood
Member
Mon Feb 24 17:59:58
"the chances of a recession in the next election cycle are pretty high."

Says this. Doesn't realize why this is true. Votes Trump. /facepalm
Habebe
Member
Mon Feb 24 18:13:14
Hood. While I agree his tarrifs have a short term negative impact on global trade I see them as a means to an end in attempting* to get us better deals.China has policies that for years have been far worse.
sam adams
Member
Mon Feb 24 19:14:05
Lol that retard just had a socialist interview for the ages.

Praises castro, admits he doesnt know how to pay for all his free shit.

And I thought hillary vs trump was bad, bernie vs trump is way dumber.

Make your government small kids, with plenty of checks and balances, then it doesnt matter if you elect a retard.
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