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Utopia Talk / Politics / Super Tuesday III revenge of the DNC
Habebe
Member
Thu Mar 05 11:37:53
Just continuing the thread.
jergul
large member
Thu Mar 05 11:49:37
I have to say that the corona outbreak sure highlights the advantages of universal health care.

Seldom do we see more clearly that ill-health is a collective problem.

There is still room for private insurance - say for premium health coverage or to cover income loss due to illness.

But the troubles the US is having getting testing done is almost unforgivable.

I think I will be jotting this factor down for a couple hundred more universes having a democratic president in 2021.
hood
Member
Thu Mar 05 11:56:45
Jergul,

Biden just seems to have that same "it's my turn, I'm owed this" attitude Hillary had in 2016. Not a fan. I'm sure if he won the seat he'd be pedestrian and not awful.
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Thu Mar 05 11:58:46
there's still time to coalesce around Tulsi
jergul
large member
Thu Mar 05 12:02:40
Hood
Biden has the best shot at Florida. I don't know what more need be said. Though I am smack in his demographic on most counts (save that pesky citizenship and residence stuff), so I would incline that way in any event.

"...So Warren lost. In fact, she didn’t really come particularly close to winning. That said, her campaign mattered in a way that a lot of other failed 2020 candidacies didn’t.

Her strategy of rolling out a ton of left-leaning policy plans arguably forced Sanders to match her, and she pushed the other candidates leftward even if they didn’t wind up quite where Warren was. Her plans also created public conversations about ideas that had not previously been in the mainstream, such as the idea that Facebook should be broken up. And I expect future Democratic candidates for president and other offices will tout ideas similar to the wealth tax that she proposed.

In other words, no matter whether the nomination goes to Sanders or Biden, many of Warren’s ideas may end up “winning,” even if she couldn’t."

Perry Bacon Jr. is a senior writer for FiveThirtyEight.

As good an epitath for her campaign as any.
Habebe
Member
Thu Mar 05 12:03:22
I actually kind of liked Tulsi.

3 things bothered me.

1. Guns.
2. Anti oil.
3. The most concerning was her "bad boyfriend" bill, would be absolutley disastrous and is a blatantly sexist policy that would further sew division.
Dukhat
Member
Thu Mar 05 12:04:48
LoL, when has Biden ever acted that way? Most of his stump speech is trying to connect with older voters and being empathic, something Hillary could never do. He had his best debate because he connected, not because he stopped stumbling during the debate.

I'll say this, who he picks is very important because they will most likely be the next president.
Dukhat
Member
Thu Mar 05 12:04:55
next next president.
jergul
large member
Thu Mar 05 12:04:57
habebe
The lower the electability, the more you like them seems to be your pattern.
Habebe
Member
Thu Mar 05 12:05:05
I forgot in Jergul lamd Florida carries 284 electoral votes.
Habebe
Member
Thu Mar 05 12:05:51
Jergul, Not true. Trump is by farnthe most electable.
Dukhat
Member
Thu Mar 05 12:06:56
So it begins. Senate Republicans restart investigations into Ukraine. *yawn*
Habebe
Member
Thu Mar 05 12:07:49
Dukhat, Dont forget the emails.
hood
Member
Thu Mar 05 12:10:07
Jergul, my interest in a candidate is not based on their popularity in Florida.
jergul
large member
Thu Mar 05 12:26:51
Habebe
Whatever you need to tell yourself to sleep at night.

http://giphy.com/media/11XVZpxNqo8sbC/200.webp

I tell you, I will laugh and laugh and laugh and laugh if Puerto Rico migration to Florida is what costs him the election.

Hood
That is fair enough. Issues-personality-electibility. Anyone can weigh those factors any way they like.

But popularity in Florida is the key to the oval office this cycle.
jergul
large member
Thu Mar 05 12:30:27
Dukhat
The small stuff does not matter. Corona is the new teflon.
Habebe
Member
Thu Mar 05 12:36:54
"To put it this way. If the economy starts to soften (btw, since when is 2.1% growth strong? There is not much margin to soft), then who can best capitalise on it? Bloomberg or Sanders?

I think Bloomberg."

"Tue Feb 11 04:05:47
What do you think Bloomberg has done wrong since he was last fully vetted out?

I frankly don't think negatives matter much this cycle. Given that all democratic candidate negatives will be measured against the percieved negatives of the alternative Trump."


"
There is no real cost to not choosing Biden, but a real cost to not choosing Bloomberg or Sanders."

"Bloomberg has a strategy for the black vote. Push gun control hard."

-Jergul
Habebe
Member
Thu Mar 05 12:40:13
"To put it this way. If the economy starts to soften (btw, since when is 2.1% growth strong? There is not much margin to soft), then who can best capitalise on it? Bloomberg or Sanders?

I think Bloomberg."_Jergul

-------------------------

"Tue Feb 11 04:05:47
What do you think Bloomberg has done wrong since he was last fully vetted out?

I frankly don't think negatives matter much this cycle. Given that all democratic candidate negatives will be measured against the percieved negatives of the alternative Trump."_Jergul

----------------------------------


"There is no real cost to not choosing Biden, but a real cost to not choosing Bloomberg or Sanders."_Jergul

----------------------------------
"Bloomberg has a strategy for the black vote. Push gun control hard."_Jergul
Habebe
Member
Thu Mar 05 12:52:13
"Sat Feb 15 12:46:47
Bloomenberg is polling quite well amongst black democrats even before Biden withdraws and Bloomenberg announces that Stacey Abrams is his running mate."_ Jergul

Nuff said.
Forwyn
Member
Thu Mar 05 12:55:14
Apparently Tulsi's campaign didn't start in American Samoa until three days before Super Tuesday? Someone needs to be fired.
jergul
large member
Thu Mar 05 14:48:32
Habebe
What? I gave you the odds at the time. 11% chance is hardly overwhelming. Also, please note that I said nothing unreasonable or untrue in the quote you found.

From Febuary 23.

Trump - 45%
Sanders - 27.5%
Bloomberg - 11%
Biden - 8.25%
Buttigieg - 5.5%
Everyone else - 2.25%
jergul
large member
Thu Mar 05 14:52:24
The power of numbers!
Habebe
Member
Thu Mar 05 15:08:21
I didn't say you did not post polls as well. Bur you alsonsaid all that shit.

My point is that you read some favorable polls and watch/read some Rachel Maddow-esque commentary and you really think you habe a realistic grasp on the US electorate.

You thought that Bloomberg could win the minority vote, with gun control no doubt. ( perhaps his charisma as well, JK)

So forgive me if I'm weary of your predictions.
Habebe
Member
Thu Mar 05 15:09:45
But, you also said all that shit*
jergul
large member
Thu Mar 05 15:18:04
I stand by "all that shit". The only thing that changed was that Sanders and Bloomberg were hit hard by Democratic figures rallying behind Biden.

The best odds I gave Bloomberg of becoming president was 1100 universes of 10 000.

But he was far more likely to take Florida than Sanders. And with Florida - the presidency.

Projections, not predictions. It gives an outlook at a snapshot in time.
jergul
large member
Thu Mar 05 15:19:58
I have a feeling you are really going to "be weary" with the next projection. Sanders was your best shot at a Trump presidency. That variant of Trump winning has become a lot less likely.
Habebe
Member
Thu Mar 05 15:49:29
By polls done almost a year beforenthe election for starters.

In actual votes, Sanders had good Hispanic support. However the Cubans would have been scared off by Socialism talk and his positive rhetoric towards Castro specifically.

Also it as not as you said "The only thing that changed was that Sanders and Bloomberg were hit hard by Democratic figures rallying behind Biden"

What happened to BB was EXACTLY as i predicted, he gained in enough polls to be taken seriously enough to be better and he just had too many negatives.You also come from one of the whitest places on earth.

As for you sticking by all that t just shows that your out of touch with the US electorate. There is more to politics than polls.

Like Michael Moore's prediction of Trump winning last election, many on the left disregarded him because of the polls. He said polls schools, whenever he drove through his downtown he seen Trumonsigns everywhere, he saw enthusiastic support for him.

Enthusiasm wins elections, its why Obama won two terms easily, he had enthusiasm. Even now, if Obama could run again he would likley beat Trump.

Habebe
Member
Thu Mar 05 15:51:37
Biden has a path to the office. But he has to work on bringing in middle and lower class white voters. Also it wouldnt hurt if Obama stumped hard for him.
Habebe
Member
Thu Mar 05 15:56:45
Bloomberg wasnthe best shotnat a Trump Presidency btw.
jergul
large member
Thu Mar 05 15:59:59
Boy are you going to "be weary" with my next projection :).
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Thu Mar 05 16:02:36
add some sane universes where Trump is forcibly removed from office due to gross unfitness
jergul
large member
Thu Mar 05 16:03:37
Sanders is the best shot at a Trump presidency.

Bloomberg was about equal with Biden if he had gained the nomination as both are capable of clobbering Trump in Florida and thus winning the presidency.

You will have a lot more credibility when you understand this and demonstrate that you sort of understand how your electoral college works.

jergul
large member
Thu Mar 05 16:06:07
TW
Its part of somebody else or a democratic contender winning. We looked into that and his eating habits earlier when looking at Pence's chances of being president next term.
Habebe
Member
Thu Mar 05 16:17:34
How could I have forgotten, Florida has 284 electoral votes...

We all agree Florida is an important state in the EC.

Only you think it's the sole election. PA, Ohio and the Midwest also play major factors.
jergul
large member
Thu Mar 05 16:27:30
29. Its 270 to win or 538 in total. Websites I use conveniently have the last two numbers in their names.

Its over if the democrats take Florida Habebe. The reasons for it winning will be reasons it does well elsewhere.

Conversely, if the democrats lose Florida, then they will lose it for reasons that will cause it to do worse elsewhere.

The Democrats would still have a theoretical chance of scrambling home a victory without Florida, but due to interdependency in results, I would find that quite unlikely.
Dukhat
Member
Thu Mar 05 19:31:31
With just the blue wall and Colorado and Virginia as blue states, the dems will still have 279 electoral votes. Wisconsin is the only state the dems could possibly lose out of the blue wall and they could make up for it with Arizona or North Carolina or Iowa. Georgia is a demographic timebomb for the GOP too. Florida will be close as always but unnecessary. And Texas will be within 5 points. If Bloomberg really spends money there it will be even closer. Nobody has contested Texas in a long time but the demographics are almost exactly like California’s. It’s just texas suburbs are (were) redder and Texas latinos don’t turn out.

Anyways Florida is unnecessary.
jergul
large member
Thu Mar 05 20:46:41
Dukhat
If the democrats do not take Florida, then it will be in large part for reasons transferrable to other states. So there will be lots of other states it also will not take.

It has a theoretical chance of winning still without Florida (the GOP does not), but I would not give other variants good odds if Florida goes GOP.
Dukhat
Member
Thu Mar 05 21:51:09
Hyper polarization will be the narrative of this election. White evangelical christians will make their last stand. Voters over 50 who are white and have no college education will vote over 70% for trump. Men will vote for him by almost 20 points.

Everybody else will vote against Trump. Women will vote against him by over 20 points. Blacks by 80% and latinos by 30%.

So whoever wins a state will be based on the demographics of that state. Florida stays red because it imports like 100k white retirees every year. They turn out at 90% and vote heavily republican. It gives republicans a huge advantage in the state. Florida will be competitive but democrats will have better luck focusing on the midwest and very very soon ... Texas.
jergul
large member
Thu Mar 05 22:28:01
Dukhat
Your facts on who has migrated to Florida since last election is way off. Its blue states, territories, and US nationals abroad driven.

In the American South, only Delaware, DC, and Maryland have a lower proportion of Evangelical Christians than Florida.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bible_Belt

The number of Floridans aged 25+ with a college degree has increased from 22% when Gore famously lost the State in 2000 to 29% in 2018.

The only thing the Democratic candidate has to be is slightly less deeply unpopular than Hillary Clinton.
Dukhat
Member
Thu Mar 05 22:37:58
College-educated voters dont always act the same too. A big reason that trump won is that working class whites in the midwest started voting like working class whites in the south. That is their vote became more racialized. And yes Florida has immigration from everywhere but most of those other immigrant groups don’t vote at the same rate as retirees which is 90%.

Its a close state but dems still lost it just barely in 2018 because rural voters and elderly voters turned out en masse.
jergul
large member
Thu Mar 05 22:40:56
Here is the latest bloomberg anti-trump ad. Released March 5th.

Funny. Not for content, but because that is after Bloomberg withdrew from the race.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p9KQGQe6vVk&feature=youtu.be
jergul
large member
Fri Mar 06 02:18:18
The US needs millions upon millions of tests they are saying.

@3.5k per test according to one hospital's billing office at least.

==================

How can health care reform not be the most profound election issue?
Habebe
Member
Fri Mar 06 10:49:24
Idk, doesn't Norway have great HC amd yetnits far worse offnthan the US in regards to coronavirus.
sam adams
Member
Fri Mar 06 10:54:02
The corona vacines and treatments will come primarily from researchers in a country without universal health care.

The rest of you whiners can thank us.
jergul
large member
Fri Mar 06 11:04:25
habebe
Its because we have great health care, so are actually testing people, so are catching far more cases.

You can read this directly off the 108 infected, 0 dead.

Yesterday you had tested 1500 people for God's sake.

I hope that bubble you live in keeps you safe from the corona infection.

Sammy
Come on. Sure you can see that some sort of baseline universal health system is required?

We are getting things with pandemic potential every 5 years now - and it will get worse.

Universal healthcare systems also pay for drugs btw. They just don't have murderously high prices before rebates as you do (rebates are widespread in the US too - but the list price is horrendous and literally kills people).
Habebe
Member
Fri Mar 06 11:06:59
Well, we will see who fares better.
Habebe
Member
Fri Mar 06 11:12:48
http://www...g-everyone-for-coronavirus/amp

I dont think either system seems well prepared for this.

I do agree that this should shine some light on US HC, but that said IDK which systems in the world are well prepared for this?
jergul
large member
Fri Mar 06 11:15:38
Today's forcast 10 000 alternate realities.

Biden 5300 universes
Trump 4300 universes
Sanders 300 universes
Everyone else 100 universes

Much simpler to calculate now :).
Habebe
Member
Fri Mar 06 11:16:52
Jergulometry
swordtail
Anarchist Prime
Fri Mar 06 11:17:07
"The corona vacines and treatments will come primarily from researchers in a country without universal health care."

paid for by taxes from average americans so that big pharma can make big bucks.
jergul
large member
Fri Mar 06 11:38:51
We already know who will fare better. It will be Norway. By huge margins.

Universal health care is far better equipped to deal with pandemics.
jergul
large member
Fri Mar 06 11:39:31
I am still giving Trump better odds than the bookies are.
jergul
large member
Fri Mar 06 11:45:45
Biden is forecast to win all remaining primaries save Washington State, Iowa, and Americans abroad.
jergul
large member
Fri Mar 06 11:48:47
Current delegate count: Biden 637, Sanders 559. There is a 10% chance of a contested convention.
Habebe
Member
Fri Mar 06 12:01:39
Im no fannofnthe US HC system, but what exactly about Norways HC isngoing to make it better equipped to fend off Vivid 19?

You were complaining about testing kits, but Norway can't produce enough either atm.
jergul
large member
Fri Mar 06 13:01:27
Norway has tested as many people as the US with 1.5% of the US' population.

This is helpful because people who may be infected, but are not, can go to work.

People that are infected can stay at home on full pay.

So everyone wants to get checked out.

We also avoid unfortunate incidents were healthy people a quarentined along sick ones because we presume they are all sick. Which of course is self-forfilling as eventually everyone at that location will get sick.

So we avoid wipe-outs in care facilities for the elderly.
Forwyn
Member
Fri Mar 06 13:35:45
Fuckin' international nursing home subsidies
Dukhat
Member
Fri Mar 06 19:22:02
Durr internatiolaism dudrrr subsidies governmet durr bad durrrrrrrrrr
Forwyn
Member
Fri Mar 06 20:28:52
Durrrrr I get durrrr triggered by durrrrrrr jokes hurrrrrrr
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Sat Mar 07 01:44:00
"I think lack of talent was [Warren's] problem. She had a tremendous lack of talent. She was a good debater, she destroyed Mike Bloomberg... but people don't like her. She is a very mean person and people don't like her... people don't want that... they like a person like me that's not mean."
~ (no self-awareness) Trump
Habebe
Member
Sat Mar 07 02:01:34
Trump is more likeable though than Warren, by almost any measure.

As for.his meanness, it generally goes with my personal belief that its not mean if it is truly funny.

"Only rosie oddonel" is fucking hilarious.

Not to say he doesnt come off mean on rare occasion, but unless your a never Trumper who needs a safe place to cry because the orange man said bad stuff its not that often.
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Sat Mar 07 02:10:45
one could argue saying she lacks talent & that people don't like her is being mean


(also personal insults & childish nicknames are basically all he ever does)
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Sat Mar 07 02:26:29
imagine he's in kindergarten w/ other toddlers (who remind him of his enemies)... calling them Mini Mike, Sleepy Joe, Pocahontas, Lyin Ted, Little Marco, Crooked Hillary, Nervous Nancy, Cryin' Chuck, Little Adam Schitt & The Dumbest Man on Television (Don Lemon)...

pretty sure the teacher might have a problem w/ all of it, as well as plenty of the other things he says


there's an extensive list for any interested:
http://en....nicknames_used_by_Donald_Trump
Habebe
Member
Sat Mar 07 09:51:42
http://amp...nders-democrats-2020-joe-biden

They make Bernie sound like Gargamel the evil Jew plotting and scheming....

"Bernie Sanders plots new strategy to foil Biden and take charge of 2020 race"

Bernie is gonna get get them and the meddling dog too.
Habebe
Member
Sat Mar 07 09:54:14
Tw, Fuck the teacher, I bet the parents think its funny.
Habebe
Member
Sat Mar 07 09:56:48
Tbh, Though I felt bad format young reporter who wasn't being mean, just asking tough questions and he kept saying " well, get it out" as she stumbled over her words...

Habebe
Member
Sat Mar 07 10:11:58
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=kAIfU5RBBso&t=363s

Greatest hits.
TJ
Member
Sat Mar 07 10:26:26
I don't know about the dumbest people on television. Take MSNBC as a example who thought you could give 1m to every American from Bloomberg's investment of 500m. I started a troll post on this the other day. Jergul went to the trouble of taking the population by 1m for actual cost, a stunning figure, but a calculator was unnecessary to prove a point.

Jergul, you ruined my fishing trip.

500 millions can only make 500 millionaire's. Something a 5th or 6th grade student should know.

It makes an old man cringe. How many who watch MSNBC just took the word of an anchor without a second thought and will never hear a correction? Yippee-ki-yay comes to mind.
Habebe
Member
Sat Mar 07 11:46:51
"
Jergul, you ruined my fishing trip"
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Sat Mar 07 11:51:24
"How many who watch MSNBC just took the word of an anchor without a second thought and will never hear a correction"

i've had the same thought about Fox many times

plus how many will listen to Trump & never hear a correction? (as it will never come, in fact he'll keep repeating the lie)

and it won't be a rare occurrence, it will happen almost every time he speaks
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Sat Mar 07 11:58:19
finding Trump funny doesn't make it not mean... his intent is obviously insult (being mean)

plus he obviously attacks people beyond the nicknames like calling Tillerson dumb as a rock... (he is definitely a mean person)

the childish nicknames are particularly troubling as people don't even seem to notice it... people like Dobbs & Hannity even adopt them

it's the behavior of a child (much like everything about him)... notice it
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Sat Mar 07 12:06:54
"When you give a crazed, crying lowlife a break, and give her a job at the White House, I guess it just didn’t work out. Good work by General Kelly for quickly firing that dog!"
~ Trump talking about Omarosa... a person he hired... multiple times
(i assure you he is being mean there if you can't see it)

...i won't fill up this thread w/ any more examples, of which there are 1000s... being mean doesn't disqualify him, it's what some like about him (but pretending he's not mean, is delusional)
TJ
Member
Sat Mar 07 12:19:36
I'm reminded of a Jonathan Swift quote about satire.

jergul
large member
Sat Mar 07 12:20:45
A modest proposal?
TJ
Member
Sat Mar 07 12:43:44
Might be, ;)

"Satire is a sort of glass, wherein beholders do generally discover everybody's face but their own."
Habebe
Member
Sun Mar 08 01:17:22
The nicknames are sper pf brilliant.

1. He knows they are going to get repeated a lot, they tend to be catchy so if you here them a lot they will stick.

2. When it gets normalized and repeated so much you associate it with them automatically.

This lets him set a narratice abput someone that will stay wit
Habebe
Member
Sun Mar 08 01:20:09
That lets him set a narrative about someone that will stay with them and that impression and association sticka in people's minds.

Shifty schiff
Crazy Bernie
Mini Mike

Mike isn't that* little, but combined with a meek personality people associate him as 5'4 120lbs... It's setting a narrative.
jergul
large member
Sun Mar 08 03:32:55
Dump Trump is powerful.

Its both a nickname and a call to action.

Its like Bloomberg is paying people to be clever or something.
Dukhat
Member
Sun Mar 08 06:30:11
I missed it but Bloomberg really had no intention of winning the race. He just wanted to spend money attacking Trump. Literally 2/3's of the ads were attacking Trump and another third were like, "I'm Mike Bloomberg and I'm a nice guy."

Trump was getting facebook and social media all to himself and BLoomberg carpetbombed Trump in response. If he spends this month, it will help Biden a lot.

And Biden's other secret weapon is Obama who everybody still loves. Obama can campaign this fall.

It might almost make up for the fact that Biden's main campaign slogan is, "I'm a nice guy who won't hurt you."
Pillz
Member
Sun Mar 08 13:43:31
The five good presidents

Donald trump
Tom brady
Ivanka trump
Baron trump
????
Habebe
Member
Sun Mar 08 14:59:30
"
Trump was getting facebook and social media all to himself and BLoomberg carpetbombed Trump in response. If he spends this month, it will help Biden a lot."

The things is BB had a horrible campaign. His ads were terrible.momey well spent* could be helpful but BB had possibly the worst ad team in history.

Now Obama, thats promising for Biden. If i were him id play that up. Rumour has it that he was looking for Michelle as a VP, I think that could play well for him.
Habebe
Member
Sun Mar 08 18:09:50
In an odd twist Jesse Jackson is still alive, and he supports Bernie over Biden.
jergul
large member
Sun Mar 08 18:21:02
Habebe
Biden's VP will be someone who will give him momentum in Florida.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marilyn_Milian
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yvanna_Cancela

For example.

Why risk it when you can sweep it?
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Sun Mar 08 18:45:32
Yvanna is too young to be VP

where did you even hear of her? the internet doesn't even know her birthday (only year)
Habebe
Member
Sun Mar 08 18:57:15
Tw, Its Jergul, the man is sexually attracted to Florida....facts are meaningless.

Honestly if* he could get Michelle Obama that may be his best bet IMHO.
Dukhat
Member
Sun Mar 08 22:56:37
The most important state is the tipping point state. The best strategy is the one that makes sure you get the 270th vote and all the states just inside the 270th vote.

The tipping point state will almost certainly be Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania will be right behind. Hillary lost because turnout was way down in cities. That was due mainly to 2 things: lower turnout and voting for third parties. Lower turnout was due to abusing facebook information (Cambridge Analytica) to target young minority voters with clips of Clinton talking about superpredators along with normal GOP voter suppression (not enough polling places).

The democrats control the executive offices of all those states now so voter suppression should hopefully be less or nonexistent. Facebook I think is limiting access to specific information more this election and also gatekeeping ads more. I'm not sure. Biden has also already run twice with Obama so he's been more vetted. Maybe they'll dig something up that he said a long time ago but I think it will be less effective.

Anyways, the strategy will be to make sure the cities turnout in enough numbers which means the VP needs to help appeal to young black voters without turning off suburban voters.

Dukhat
Member
Mon Mar 09 00:10:15
Some typos* oh well. I was on the shitter.
jergul
large member
Mon Mar 09 00:23:12
TW
She ticks *A LOT* of boxes.

1. A trap. Trump *will absolutely* lose Florida if he goes bigotry on her ass.

2. Project Citizenship. One of Abram's strengths. But Biden does not need Abram's and it would seem pandering as he did not endorse here Georgia campaign. Besides, Abram's is off target. Hispanic, not black, is on target.

3. Cuban American. Win more of them. Win Florida. Win Florida, win the election.

4. A Reid protegee. Biden owes Reid big-time.

5. Nevada Culinary Union huff-haw. Bringing in someone who know it well could be helpful.

6. The Nevada Culinary Union has secured great health care coverage for its members. That experience will be gold come election as corona goes into full blown winter mode in October.

Habebe
You IMHOs have a tendency to minimize Democratic chances of winning the election. Biden does not need closer ties to the Obamas.

He needs what will help him in Florida.

Feel free to tell me why you have so much trouble understanding that the Democrats will win the election if they take Florida.
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Mon Mar 09 00:30:07
well, fact remains she's too young (not as in my opinion, but as in ineligible)

gotta be 35 (sadly doesn't include mental age)
jergul
large member
Mon Mar 09 00:31:15
lol, she is actually too young. M'kay :). That was not on my radar this cycle.
jergul
large member
Mon Mar 09 00:34:12
Good catch tw!
Habebe
Member
Mon Mar 09 01:49:33
You do realize that Trump could have lost Florida to Clinton last election and still would have won.

I get it, its an important state because it its a " swing state", it has a lot of EVs , and you heard a podcast that says that the demographics suggest that of Fla leans Trump the rest of the swing states will too, you have yet to explain the details of thos demographic trend though.

But if 2016 taught us anything it's that the old rules dont matter So much.

Now this your going to have to explain. The Obama aversion bit. Im not the biggest fan but the fact remains Obama is still hugely popular.Why wouldn't he want to play up his link to Obama?
jergul
large member
Mon Mar 09 02:13:47
hahabe
I am obviously far mor thorough in how I gather information than the "saw something on my screen" method you seem to use.

I have said that if the democrats take florida, it will be reasons that are transferable to other states. If they lose it it will be for reasons that are transferable to other states.

Trump could in other words win by a landslide if he takes florida, or lose by a landslide if he does not.

Election outcome share interdependencies. I think this is one of the things that is confusing to you.

I do not *yet* have to explain demographic changes in Florida. I have harped on them excessively.

You may want to factor in that Clinton was a weak candidate that did not deal well with pressure the FBI put her under on the eve of the election.

What Obama aversion? Its mostly a question of diminishing returns. Biden already has most of what Obama ties can give. And there is a downside to too close ties to his former boss. He has to be a presidential candidate in his own right and not a proxy for Obama's 3rd term.
jergul
large member
Mon Mar 09 02:15:47
And please tell us your thoughts on how Trump will win only if the economy is doing good.

It used to be your crown argument for why Trump will win. Oddly, you have not mentioned it much these recent weeks.
jergul
large member
Mon Mar 09 02:17:14
How would choosing M. Obama as a running mate not come across as pandering to the black vote?
jergul
large member
Mon Mar 09 02:19:44
Today's forcast 10 000 alternate realities.

Biden 5300 universes
Trump 4300 universes
Sanders 300 universes
Everyone else 100 universes

Much simpler to calculate now :).

=================

Today's update

Forecast 10 000 alternate realities.

Biden 5500 universes
Trump 4200 universes
Sanders 200 universes
Everyone else 100 universes
Habebe
Member
Mon Mar 09 04:14:57
"I am obviously far mor thorough in how I gather information than the "saw something on my screen" method you seem to use."

And yet I called the fate of BB extremely accurate while you praised him as the liberal messiah.

" I have said that if the democrats take florida, it will be reasons that are transferable to other states. If they lose it it will be for reasons that are transferable to other states."

Ok, what are these reasons?

As for MO , hownis that pandering anymore than Abrams? Michelle is still very popular, and not just to black voters, many Hispanics and white women as well.

As for your earlier issue with my tendency to favor republican outcomes that may be true. TW, hood, Dukhat etc. Have tendencies to favor liberal outcomes BUT** they are not as out of touch as your claims tend to be.

The economy? Yes that was a huge plus for Trump, currently it still is. However there is a higher likleyhood now that a good economy due to virus fears may suffer OR it may turn out that in the end Trump has handled the virus issue well or terribly both outcomes may play into the election or it could all be forgotten come November.

What I had said was that batting a huge downturn in the economy he would likley have an easy re election thats true. If the economy tanks ( depending by what measures) he will have a much tougher time.
Habebe
Member
Mon Mar 09 04:21:28
Btw , you werenthe one that said there is a negative to nominating Biden. Remember something like 10% of Bernie voters voted Trump. Also odk who the Libertarians are putting up this year in 2016 hebgathered like 2% of the vote that otherwise are likley to vote Trump.

http://www...-supporting-trump-survey-finds

The link is about the Trump/Biden crossover.
jergul
large member
Mon Mar 09 04:34:49
Habebe
I gave Bloomberg 11% chance of being president of the US. You insist on exagerating my position, then claim my position is exagerated.

You go to Trump University to learn debating techniques like that?

We do not yet know those reasons. I am simply pointing that election results in various states correlate.

I have never suggested Abrams should be Biden's running mate. It would seem like pandering and does not provide much added value.

The negative was relative and it accounts for a certain degree of voter attrition if Sanders is not the candidate. Margins are smaller now than when I cited polls on it (newer polls show less of an impact).

The link does not even mention Biden. But if your only hope is defection levels like in 2016, then Trump has already lost.

Protest votes gone wrong. Sanders will not let that happen again.
Dukhat
Member
Mon Mar 09 04:59:07
Whoever Biden nominates will be the next leader of the democratic party and probably president (whether Biden wins or loses). It's pretty important since he has a good chance of serving only one term.
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