Welcome to the Utopia Forums! Register a new account
The current time is Thu Jul 16 11:02:43 2020

Utopia Talk / Politics / Super Tuesday IV: A New Hope
Habebe
Member
Mon Mar 09 06:50:27
Well tommorow will play put like a micro-ST. We will seenwho fares best. Sanders is only behimd like 75 delegates out of almost 2700.

Jergul, Your support for BB os documented. "Biden" was a typo, I meant Sanders.
Habebe
Member
Mon Mar 09 06:52:38
I was off on the number estimate a bit. It was 12 not 10.

"Fully 12 percent of people who voted for Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., in the 2016 Democratic presidential primaries voted for President Trump in the general election. That is according to the data from the Cooperative Congressional Election Study — a massive election survey of around 50,000 people. (For perspective, a run-of-the-mill survey measuring Trump's job approval right now has a sample of 800 to 1,500.)"

From my previous NPR link.
jergul
large member
Mon Mar 09 07:42:59
The well documented support of MB gave him 11% chance of becoming president.

I was otherwise commenting on his electability, not his chances of winning the primary.

What % of those that voted for Sanders in the primaries would have voted GOP anyway, but imagined Sanders a weaker candidate so tried to have him chosen is certainly greater than 0.

It is certainly greater than 0 this cycle too as GOP organizations have pushed having Trump supporters vote for Sanders in the primaries.

But this does not matter. Defections have to meet or surpass what it did in 2016 for Trump to have a chance at re-election.

People were really disgruntled last time and no one expected Trump to win. He got protest votes he is most certainly not going to get this time round.
Habebe
Member
Mon Mar 09 07:59:59
Only matters if Biden can bring out the voters, or Sanders.

Trump may not get the protest vote ut I doubt its that bignof a block.

He now is the incumbent who has survived everything that people have claimed would be his downfall so far... We will know more tommorow.
jergul
large member
Mon Mar 09 08:05:49
It only matters if they can bring out more voters than Hillary did. It will probably be helpful that the newsvalue of an FBI investigation on the eve of an election is pretty much 0. We have been oversaturated with investigations of this or that.

Which may have been Pelosis plan all along ;)
Habebe
Member
Mon Mar 09 13:27:37
Do you think this market crash will effect tomorrows votes? If so how?

Id think it may be better for Bernie, but it could very well be good for Biden.
Dukhat
Member
Tue Mar 10 02:37:10
Market crash is definitely painful but I don't think we won't see more than 20-40%. 20% is a correction. 40% is a recession. More ... well let's not go there.

The only way it's good for Bernie is if tens of millions lose their job between now and November. Then people will really want some kind of revolution.

If it's a recession, then only millions will lose their job and the vast majority of Americans are still employed and scared and want just to fix what's already there. Better for Biden.
jergul
large member
Tue Mar 10 02:52:34
I am still thinking a correction in the 20-25% range.

Habebe
I will keep with my last forecast :).

Forecast 10 000 alternate realities.

Biden 5500 universes
Trump 4200 universes
Sanders 200 universes
Everyone else 100 universes
jergul
large member
Tue Mar 10 03:26:29
Your best hope is no longer a Sander's recovery, but that he keeps his delegate count at a level that suggests only foul play from the DNC saved Biden.

The most likely outcome is a pretty convincing Biden surge that puts to rest CT theories in most places outside of Trump's twitter feed.
sam adams
Member
Tue Mar 10 10:53:37
"Everyone else 100 universes "

This is higher. The clowns running are fucking ancient.
Habebe
Member
Tue Mar 10 11:32:47
What if one of these old ass candidates gets coronavirus?
jergul
large member
Tue Mar 10 11:53:57
Sammy and habebe
The oldest has a statistical 78% chance of completing the term. I checked a while back.

They just have to be president at some point in 2021.

But I will tweak it up a bit next forecast.

Habebe
How many people do you think will have been infected in the US by election day?
jergul
large member
Tue Mar 10 12:24:46
But what would happen if one of the 2 running got sick and died? Their VP candidate would step up and sweep in on a sympathy vote.
Habebe
Member
Tue Mar 10 12:24:56
Jergul, Idk bit lets face it, they are all old. Trump isnthe ypung one at 73!

Sanders just had a heart attack.

Biden is just mentally gone then only thing physically wrong seems to be he has trouble standing.
jergul
large member
Tue Mar 10 15:06:49
Biden has a controlled stammer. He has always been like that.
jergul
large member
Tue Mar 10 15:07:04
stutter*
sam adams
Member
Tue Mar 10 15:51:16
Did my patriotic duty and voted for biden. Didnt want to do it, but i had to vote against the pinko.

I do like how the pinko cancelled his rally tonight and blamed it on the chinavirus. A good excuse for going home to cry.
Habebe
Member
Tue Mar 10 15:57:18
Sam, You would rather vote for Hillary over Sanders? I mean even if say somehow he became POTUS it would just be a do nothing government.
sam adams
Member
Tue Mar 10 16:14:27
Yes i would vote for hillary 10000 times before voting for bernie once.

The candidate of free shit and 0 personal responsibility needs to be voted against by everyone.

And if i was a chicago democrat i could vote for hillary 10k times. Muhaha
Habebe
Member
Tue Mar 10 17:17:32
Eww.
jergul
large member
Tue Mar 10 17:22:12
Starting to understand how much of Trump's victory was due to aversion to Hillary?
Habebe
Member
Tue Mar 10 17:49:43
Jergul, Even many democrats don't like her, so yes, Trump quite likely would have lost if it was say Biden in 2016.
Habebe
Member
Tue Mar 10 18:01:30
http://www...llary-rogan-opinion/index.html
sam adams
Member
Tue Mar 10 20:00:12
Biden up by 11% with 43% reporting. You can feel the souls and pulses of bernie bros and moochers fading away.
sam adams
Member
Tue Mar 10 20:00:26
In Michigan
obaminated
Member
Tue Mar 10 21:19:29
bye bernie, hello uncle joe
sam adams
Member
Tue Mar 10 21:30:28
Berning up and crashing. Its all over but the crying of the moochers.
sam adams
Member
Tue Mar 10 21:32:39
Its as if millions of lazy college kids with no life experience cried out at once and were then silent.
Habebe
Member
Tue Mar 10 21:42:46
Do you actually want Joe over Trump. Or just glad to piss off the hippies?
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Tue Mar 10 21:53:12
so 'the establishment' rigged the primary again by having voters vote for Biden over Bernie...

that will be Dear Leader's tweet soon i'm sure
Habebe
Member
Tue Mar 10 22:03:16
In all.fairness they admitted to itnin court last time.

Its kind of like when all those "crazy" people thought the US government was spying on regular people.... And then Snowden stepped up and proved them right.
sam adams
Member
Tue Mar 10 22:43:32
"Do you actually want Joe over Trump. "

Yes.
sam adams
Member
Tue Mar 10 22:45:27
But i would pick trump over the pinko. The commie is the worst choice by far. Voting against the pinko is more important than voting for either trump or biden.
Habebe
Member
Tue Mar 10 23:38:24
I never took you for a Democrat.
sam adams
Member
Wed Mar 11 00:07:00
Im a free agent.
sam adams
Member
Wed Mar 11 00:07:49
There are democratic and Republican ideas that are good. Tends to be more Republican but trump is dumb.
sam adams
Member
Wed Mar 11 00:08:23
Dont worry ill probably vote for local Rs.
Habebe
Member
Wed Mar 11 00:12:02
Well. It sounds more like you dislike Trump than you like Biden, which is acceptable.... No one gets excited over Biden.

However I did see him threaten a voter yesterday.
Dukhat
Member
Wed Mar 11 00:28:33
He called a voter full of shit. There was no threat at all implied or otherwise. Nice to see some fire from Biden though. Most People want to see someone stand up to Trump.
Habebe
Member
Wed Mar 11 00:43:50
He told him he was full of shit and that he would slap him in the face.
jergul
large member
Wed Mar 11 01:56:17
Forecast 10 000 alternate realities.

Biden 5500 universes
Trump 4200 universes
Sanders 200 universes
Everyone else 100 universes

New Forecast 10 000 alternate realities.

Biden 5600 universes
Trump 4000 universes
Everyone else 400 universes
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Wed Mar 11 02:21:54
my forecast: 1,000,000,000,000 alternate realities

999,999,999,990: in most of these Trump is in prison, bankrupt &/or dead (of natural causes... in no way a threat...) in a tiny number he managed to fraud himself enough popularity to run for president, getting laughed out of most of their primaries, then in the few remaining universes he won primary then lost to someone in general election

10 universes like ours:
-Biden wins in 5 universes
-Trump wins in 3 simply awful universes
-something else happens in 2 universes


a more satisfying way to look at it

(i'm aware that leaves out potential theoretical universes)
jergul
large member
Wed Mar 11 02:55:51
So many content tumbleweeds. If only they knew and appreciated how blessed they are.
Rugian
Member
Wed Mar 11 10:52:06
I love watching the levels of denial that Bernie Bros are engaging in. If you relied on the front page of Reddit for your news, you'd think that Bernie was the winner last night because he took North Dakota. No mention of Biden's wins at all. ROFL
sam adams
Member
Wed Mar 11 13:43:47
r/SandersForPresident

Is aids for the internet.

Hilarious to read the whining retards though.

"I literally cried. Why dont adults take our revolution seriously?"
sam adams
Member
Wed Mar 11 13:55:22
Its seriously like a cult.
Dukhat
Member
Wed Mar 11 14:11:02
Bernie bros subreddit is just like the Donald subreddit. 50% bots, 25% trolls, 25% gullible fools
sam adams
Member
Tue Mar 17 20:27:39
Lol fucking sanders got curb stomped in florida, and is losing Illinois handily.

Bwahahahaha
Habebe
Member
Tue Mar 17 20:55:52
Jergul is gonna go nuts.

Does seem odd though since all of the old people are on lockdown.
sam adams
Member
Tue Mar 17 21:50:08
Thats how shitty of a candidate that communist retard is. Old people are willing to die to simply vote against him.
jergul
large member
Tue Mar 17 23:32:05
Dukhat
Jergul is going to go nuts? I trust that was a typo. Surely you meant habebe.

I was perfectly aware that Sanders polled poorly in Florida. My preferred candidate is the one that is most likely to beat Trump in Florida (because that wins the election).

Anyway, to remind you. My most recent forecast:

"Wed Mar 11 01:56:17
Forecast 10 000 alternate realities.

Biden 5500 universes
Trump 4200 universes
Sanders 200 universes
Everyone else 100 universes

New Forecast 10 000 alternate realities.

Biden 5600 universes
Trump 4000 universes
Everyone else 400 universes"
obaminated
Member
Wed Mar 18 03:48:09
why do you have a preferred candidate? you live in fucking norway.
Dukhat
Member
Wed Mar 18 04:04:02
Because the US is important and it's important to have it run by someone at least competent. Fuck it, at this point, I miss W. At least I never had to worry about Kung Flu.
obaminated
Member
Wed Mar 18 04:30:36
so you are now saying trump is responsible for a chinese borne flu. god you are a partisan hack.
show deleted posts

Your Name:
Your Password:
Your Message:
Bookmark and Share