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Utopia Talk / Politics / Chinese aka Corona Virus XI
Rugian
Member
Mon Mar 23 11:39:22
The governor of Massachusetts issued an order requiring all non-essential businesses to close their doors this morning.

Fortunately, liquor stores are classified as an "essential" business. Thank the ever-loving Lord.
sam adams
Member
Mon Mar 23 11:58:13
Olympics are gonna get postponed.
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Mon Mar 23 12:14:57
the Johns Hopkins map (aka handy link)
http://gis...a7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

the graph in bottom right now changes based on what country you click on left
jergul
large member
Mon Mar 23 12:50:40
The New York virus is starting to look pretty bad. How much of the spread to other States comes from the big apple?

The scripture warned against this. It has a metaphore for fake news liberal scum and their infections.
jergul
large member
Mon Mar 23 12:51:20
I hope president Comou can control this.
jergul
large member
Mon Mar 23 12:53:13
President Coumo. My appologies for the spelling error.
Paramount
Member
Mon Mar 23 12:55:38
If we look at that handy map and click on the USA, you see how the graph is going straight up like a rocket. In a week or two the US may have more infected that China has.
Rugian
Member
Mon Mar 23 13:01:24
One more try, jergul

While we're on the topic of Kwomo though, your susceptiblity to the recent drive by the media to turn the guy into a rock star is hilarious. I think we can narrow down your IRL ID to one of these people:

http://nyp...-on-andrew-cuomo-is-he-single/

Sadly though, I doubt the majority of the country is nearly as enthralled with a guy who got bullied into becoming a progressive by an ex-Sex in the City actress. Also, his brother is Fredo. Just saying.
hood
Member
Mon Mar 23 13:03:34
41,000 confirmed cases means we are probably at 200-400k actually infected in the US.

So much for it being a hoax.
Paramount
Member
Mon Mar 23 13:07:27
WE CANNOT LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE PROBLEM ITSELF. AT THE END OF THE 15 DAY PERIOD, WE WILL MAKE A DECISION AS TO WHICH WAY WE WANT TO GO!

http://twi...tatus/1241935285916782593?s=21
Paramount
Member
Mon Mar 23 13:09:04
Your president may let everyone go back to their jobs.
The Children
Member
Mon Mar 23 13:11:37
evidence of american made is startin 2 pile up.

fort detrick closed aug 2019, outbreak cited as reason

event 201 in ny about corona outbreak (of all the fuckin topics, its about corona outbreak)

people admitted 2 hospitals with lungdisease skyrocket

few weeks later, wuhan military games where us soldiers partake and finished last (rofl paper tiger)

2 weeks later, shit hits the fan in wuhan.

no such things as coincidences.
u cunts are about to get exposed.
Rugian
Member
Mon Mar 23 13:12:50
At some point, that'll have to happen. A full-blown shutdown can't realistically last more than a couple of weeks before things need to start returning to normal. The alternative is total economic destruction.
Rugian
Member
Mon Mar 23 13:14:47
TW

In case you are wondering wht Trump needs to engage in a war of words over the "Chinese" virus, look no further than TC's post above. He may be a troll but he is accurately reflecting a very real propaganda drive led by Chinese state officials.
Palinwillbebestpresi
Member
Mon Mar 23 13:21:46
http://www.facebook.com/sarahpalin/posts/10158196781723588


This Doesn’t Even “Sound Good on the Surface”

Politicians, get a grip! Eradicating COVID-19 has nothing to do with crashing the economy and handing Big Government free reign to control even more of our lives. Americans understand that unlimited government expansion and takeover will destroy the free market system.

Republicans, especially: since when are you convinced more government control is the answer, not the problem?

Safety net - yes.
Behemoth bureaucracy that ultimately crushes Main St. - no.

Avoid the economic catastrophe our “leaders” want to scare us with by STOPPING what they are doing: propagandizing the idea that the amazing Americans who make this country great are suddenly not capable of surviving without far-away faceless bureaucrats taking over our entire economy. Which is exactly what the Fed’s unlimited expansion would do.

- Sarah Palin
Paramount
Member
Mon Mar 23 13:29:46
If you cancel the quarantine too soon, you may risk to infect more people who may overload the hospitals, and die.

But yes, at some point the quarantine has to end. Maybe we should just accept that people will get sick and thousands will die.
Paramount
Member
Mon Mar 23 13:33:06
Perhaps the police should track people who are confirmed sick. Put a gps ankle buoy on their legs/wrists. If they leave their home or the hospital an alarm goes off and the police can arrest them and bring them to a sealed fascility where sick people are comtained.

Healthy people will also need to look out for people who coughs or who looks to be sick. There needs to be a way to report them to the authorities.
Paramount
Member
Mon Mar 23 13:48:32
Lol

The Justice Department has quietly asked Congress for the ability to ask chief judges to detain people indefinitely without trial during emergencies — part of a push for new powers that comes as the novel coronavirus spreads throughout the United States.

http://www...avirus-emergency-powers-140023
The Children
Member
Mon Mar 23 14:07:33
"In case you are wondering wht Trump needs to engage in a war of words over the "Chinese" virus, look no further than TC's post above. He may be a troll but he is accurately reflecting a very real propaganda drive led by Chinese state officials. "

>> how is it a propaganda drive, u idiot, when the above is based on actual events.

did fort detrick close or not. yes it did. so how is this chinese propaganda, idiot.

did event 201 took place or not. why, yes it did.

WHO PAID U TO DO EVENT 201!?

WAS IT CREATED AND HOSTED BY YANKEES OR NOT. DID IT TOOK PLACE INSIDE UR COUNTRY OR NOT.

How can u say this is propaganda then. idiot.
Paramount
Member
Mon Mar 23 14:09:52
Some 7 million people dies each year because of air pollution.

Why doesn’t our governments order us to stay at home until they have fixed the air?
jergul
large member
Mon Mar 23 14:10:56
I saw Presiden Coumo today. He says its going to get bad before it gets better.

Words to live by!
Paramount
Member
Mon Mar 23 14:45:37
* 4.2 million dies because of ambient (outdoor) air pollution. 7 million if you include indoor air pollution.

Regardless, people needs to stop going outside and going to work until they have fixed our air.
Pillz
Member
Mon Mar 23 16:04:32
Aj4a confirmed as Tc
Pillz
Member
Mon Mar 23 16:08:52
Almost 600 cases today in Canada. Now over 2000 total cases. Finally released numbers for recovered patients too.

Toronto has declared a state of emergency. All non-essential businesses are closed.
jergul
large member
Mon Mar 23 16:30:31
Para
Excess deaths is a thing. We have internalized all kinds of preventable deaths, but not the current covid-19 pandemic.

It will become part of the flu package in a few years (yay internalizing causes of mortality), but not yet.
Pillz
Member
Mon Mar 23 16:36:10
Jump in cases comes almost entirely from Quebec. They've begun reporting cases that test positive with the provincial test, rather than waiting for confirmation from the national lab.

So if that causes a 1 day jump of 400 cases, how bad is the backlog for Ontario and BC?

Also the entire province is now shutdown until April 13th.

All because back in January it was too difficult to ground all traffic out of China...

Deaths in Italy seem to be declining, now 2 days running.
Dakyron
Member
Mon Mar 23 17:23:48
"* 4.2 million dies because of ambient (outdoor) air pollution. 7 million if you include indoor air pollution.

Regardless, people needs to stop going outside and going to work until they have fixed our air"

Umm, if you go outside you die. Stay inside and you still die. What do you want people to do?
Habebe
Member
Mon Mar 23 17:33:31
"If you cancel the quarantine too soon, you may risk to infect more people who may overload the hospitals, and die."

Dead on. The entire point as I understand it is to treat it like a control burn and not let it spike so high at any one time as to overwhelm the HC system.
Dakyron
Member
Mon Mar 23 17:44:02
People are not quarantining anyway, so if its not harshly enforced like China/Singapore then it will never work and we might as well enjoy our lives while we can.

People on crowded beaches in CA and FL. Hell there were crowds of people on local hiking trails here. At this point, human civilization is going to get what it deserves.
Paramount
Member
Mon Mar 23 17:51:54
” Umm, if you go outside you die. Stay inside and you still die. What do you want people to do?”

I want the government to remove the pollution from the air that we breathe so that we won’t die premature.
jergul
large member
Mon Mar 23 18:01:12
Para
Corona fixed that. Air quality has dramatically improved in every place with effective countermeasures.

Maybe that was the plan all along. Saving lives!
Paramount
Member
Mon Mar 23 18:03:44
Yes, Corona has been a good thing in that sense.
Dakyron
Member
Mon Mar 23 18:04:46
Someone I talked to said Coronavirus is a government conspiracy to finally fix social security.

I laughed at that.
Cherub Cow
Member
Mon Mar 23 20:47:17
[Dakyron]: "we might as well enjoy our lives while we can."

That's the short-sighted thinking that those rosy-cheeked spring breakers were using:
(CBS News, "Spring-breakers express frustration over coronavirus precautions in Miami")
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oa4i9Ap6dCg
"We're just living for the moment [YOLO!]. We're just going for, we're just gonna do what happens, when it happens."

..Whereas, if people show just a few weeks of patience with basic quarantine measures, then people will probably live longer for more YOLO later ;p
Cherub Cow
Member
Mon Mar 23 20:47:35
Just to time-stamp the Johns Hopkins University maps for March 23rd, 2020:
http://i.imgur.com/XQyqeX8.png (world map)
378,547 Total Confirmed
16,505 Total Deaths
6,077 Total Deaths in Italy (leads the world)
3,153 Total Deaths in China

Africa and South America have started reporting in major population centers, but they still have lots of missing data. India has tested 19,817 people and have only 499 confirmed (10 deaths). That has to be under-reporting. I'd bet that their health centers don't know how to test correctly or their sample has been skewed. Once they start testing for real (like, in low income areas), their numbers will explode. Maybe by next week?
Cherub Cow
Member
Mon Mar 23 20:47:39
The increase in test kits and improvements in reporting standards hit the U.S. map today,
http://i.imgur.com/EGaasjO.png (U.S. map)
43,847 Total Confirmed cases in the U.S.
552 Total Deaths in the U.S.

Based on the way that hold-out states have handled things (e.g., Florida), the U.S. numbers may continue to spike for a couple of weeks. Some articles (e.g., a pay-walled L.A. Times article from yesterday) think that we've already passed the inflection point, but until more people get tested this week, that's just optimism.
jergul
large member
Mon Mar 23 21:43:58
CC
India's % tested that are infected is higher than Norway's local infection rate (discounting imported infected people). Its low median age would explain relatively few deaths.

Beyond the attriciously low number of tests, is there any reason the other numbers have to be wrong?

The society is pretty stratified with a relatively large rural population. Cluster expansion may have barriers we just do not have in the West.

Exposure to the abroad is also very small by a per capita measure. Proper penetration may take a while.

I agree on your basic sentiment. They only number that really matters is the % of tested that are infected.

If that is skewed significantly, then the data is garbage.

sam adams
Member
Mon Mar 23 22:02:43
"India has tested 19,817 people and have only 499 confirmed (10 deaths). That has to be under-reporting. "

Or it could mean that india is a shithole and no one wants to go there.
Cherub Cow
Member
Mon Mar 23 23:32:45
[sam adams]: "Or it could mean that india is a shithole and no one wants to go there."

True, but the virus has already arrived there — travel is no longer an issue locally. If one peasant in Nagpur has it, then hundreds of other peasants caught it on the claustrophobic train ride home. I'm also thinking of how they'd let deaths pile up and not bother diagnosing those deaths as coronavirus-related.

In India, bodies typically get cremated by families very quickly (24 hours) after death. Poor families don't exactly go to the doctor to ask how death happened, they just contact their village Hindu priest and burn the bodies — not much of a forensic paper trail there. And poor Indians en masse do not get medical care from qualified professionals; they get unqualified interns to make cheap diagnoses as part of medical training, and they get rejected from hospitals. The only way that lower class Indians get tested would be via a national government initiative, and even then their caste system would de-prioritize lower class testing due to expense. So, upper class Indians — those less likely to be infected in the first place due to sanitation advantages — would puff up the numbers of negative results while lower class Indians would go untested, yet the lower classes would be getting infected in much larger numbers (i.e., tests would systematically not be reflecting those most likely to test positive).

This seems to be the case so far. India looks to be taking tips from Florida (not literally but in spirit), delaying testing for cost and to avoid panic ( http://www...licate-india-coronavirus2020-3 ). Many of those getting tested have traveled internationally — that is, Indians who can afford to travel (upper class Indians).

From the same article: "Sudhanshu Pandey [Bollywood actor] tweeted his concerns that India is on the fast track to a "worst-case scenario," and called on authorities to lock down big cities, including New Delhi, Mumbai, and Pune. [/] Experts agree. [/] 'They are not understanding that this is an avalanche,' Dr. T. Jacob John, the former head of ICMR's Centre for Advanced Research in Virology, told NDTV. 'As every week passes, the avalanche is growing bigger and bigger.'"

India will absolutely get wrecked in the coming weeks. It could be even worse than Italy. And the saddest part: it may not be reflected in coronavirus statistics. The Indian Death Rate will probably be the best indicator. If the U.N. notices Indian peasants having funerals all day every day, they might have to independently start testing the bodies.
sam adams
Member
Tue Mar 24 00:04:40
Oh ya india could definitely get bad, but theres a good reason it is lagging behind.
jergul
large member
Tue Mar 24 00:52:33
A median age of 27 suggests the country is not particularly vulnerable to increases in mortality.

There is also the argument that people vulnerable to dying have already died in India, but are limping along in the US...until corona at least.

Changes in mortality are going to be the best indicator everywhere. There is no fucking way every death is being tested for the virus post mortem anywhere.

There are tons of unregistered corona deaths everywhere.

One thing is for sure. India's mortality rate is going to increase far less as a percentage than in western countries.

Their base mortality is higher.
jergul
large member
Tue Mar 24 01:01:13
India is also using the hammer approach and has sealed the country. In addition to rolling out barbed wire to enforce shelter at home orders.

It is a kind of totalitarian country. Which seems to be the key feature for countries able to stop the spread.

I am going to hedge any bet on it getting particularly bad in India. For all the reasons I have mentioned.
Dukhat
Member
Tue Mar 24 02:14:08
It will get bad because they don't have any testing and they are packed like sardines and Indians have horrible personal hygiene. They will not test those dead and the surge in deaths will be lost in the statistics. A 2% surge for the year hidden in the numbers.
jergul
large member
Tue Mar 24 02:53:43
Dukhat
You are predicting 2% excess deaths in India this year then. That seems high. I doubt even Florida or Louisiana will reach that increase in mortality (1% die a year normally. 3% would treble the deaths).

Dukhat
Member
Tue Mar 24 03:06:51
There is no real treatment of this disease, just a management of symptoms. The sick get oxygen and immune system suppressants to fight off the cytokine storm. If their lungs fill with too much fluid, they get ventilators. If you need a ventilator, you will probably die anyways. The 2nd and 3rd-world do not have many ventilators.

jergul
large member
Tue Mar 24 03:35:19
What % of India's population do you imagine is 60+ years old?
Dukhat
Member
Tue Mar 24 03:52:44
Probably not that many since poor countries have way too many kids. But in absolute numbers, it's a huge amount.

Boomer remover 2020. It comes for us all but mostly just boomers.
jergul
large member
Tue Mar 24 04:01:19
Birth rates in India is currently at replacement levels (2.1). Its life expectancy is also a reasonable 71.

But the 20-60 demographic cadres are huge.

6% of India's population is 65+
16% of US population is 65+

6% of 1.38 billion = 83 million
16% of 0.33 billion = 52 million

In absolute numbers, a huge amount compared to what?

Dukhat
Member
Tue Mar 24 04:04:42
Picking at straws jergul.
Cherub Cow
Member
Tue Mar 24 04:33:49
[Jergul]: "A median age of 27 suggests the country is not particularly vulnerable to increases in mortality ... One thing is for sure. India's mortality rate is going to increase far less as a percentage than in western countries."

Unfortunately for that outright incorrect hypothesis, it is becoming clear that COVID-19 does not only result in lethality within senior populations. Seniors tend to be more *likely* to die, but current percentages put senior deaths (>70 years) at about 40 – 50% of deaths, leaving all others deaths (i.e., <70 years) at 50 – 60% (Italy's numbers seem to be shifting the trend to much "younger" deaths). In other words, India has plenty of median age Indians who can die.

*All* age groups have risk factors, primarily around pre-existing conditions and — the most important factor: the availability of medical treatment (
http://www...ovid-19-time-location-and-age/ ). This lack of treatment options puts India at a much greater risk than the West and even the Far East (that is, moreso than China). Currently, India has not even worked out a budget for paying for COVID-19 public services (that's planned for this week and next week http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/finance/fm-nirmala-sitharaman-may-unveil-steps-to-tackle-covid-19-today/articleshow/74766160.cms?from=mdr ), which hurts them against this fact: unprepared medical centers have higher death percentages than prepared ones. Combined with India's practice of having patients simply leave the hospital when they get crowded, current conditions mean a high mortality rate.

..
[Jergul]: "There is also the argument that people vulnerable to dying have already died in India, but are limping along in the US...until corona at least."

That's a joke, right? That flies in the face of how viral transmission works. It's not like the first wave of weak people just got wiped out already (or were just dead before the virus started — an even more absurd idea). If that were true, then those 10 dead in India were the only weak people in India, and they scale to all the "weak" people in the West who have died. That being absurd, it is absurd to think that all the vulnerable people in India have already died.

..
[Jergul]: "Changes in mortality are going to be the best indicator everywhere. There is no fucking way every death is being tested for the virus post mortem anywhere. [/] There are tons of unregistered corona deaths everywhere."

In this case, the obvious comparison you should make is that *India* does not have the same reporting standards that many other nations have adopted. Not for normal situations and *certainly* not for COVID-19. They have not even commercialized testing kits, meaning they do not have trained testing staff; they do not have a high-volume, logistical supply chain; and they do not even expect to have testing production ready until *April* ( http://www.ft.com/content/a888cf82-6c01-11ea-89df-41bea055720b ). So, the point in me bringing up mortality rate is that it may be the best indicator for *India* because they have been **so bad** at reporting coronavirus deaths. Their next round of data isn't expected until next week — and keep in mind that they've been sitting on their current data (those <10 deaths) for *weeks*.

And this applies to a specific eventuality: *if* they continue failing to test country-wide, then they will not get a statistically relevant sample. They'll erroneously think that they only had a few dozen deaths. In that case, the error can only be corrected later (end of year) by observing a surge in the Indian Death Rate. But, again, if India gets things together or if the U.N. (or international aid) steps in with test kits, India's statistics may get back on track, in which case there won't be a major discrepancy in the Death Rate.

So, sure, plenty of COVID-19 deaths may be going unreported all over the world, but India, in particular, has not been reporting on an impressive scale. India, the second-most populous nation in the world, has barely tested — in total — more than South Korea, the 28th most populous country, tests in one day.

..
[Jergul]: "India is also using the hammer approach and has sealed the country. In addition to rolling out barbed wire to enforce shelter at home orders. [/] It is a kind of totalitarian country. Which seems to be the key feature for countries able to stop the spread."

They have assuredly *not* been using a "hammer" approach. There have been *limited* closures of public gatherings, trains, and sporting events — limited to certain cities, such as Delhi and Bangalore. Estimates say about 100 million people have been affected by lockdowns — in a country of 1.3 *billion* ( http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/scores-indian-districts-lockdown-coronavirus-200323041150247.html ). Some of their group size bans (which have not been standardized nationally) have not even gone below *50* people. (Compare to some U.S. states saying *5* people, and the White House (i.e., federal level) last week recommending less than 10.)

Huge populations of India have been left with little to no guidance. And, with India being so heavily dense in population, a "key feature" of viral spread for them will be the millions of people still clustered together on trains and in markets in poor sanitation areas with no prepared medical services available.

..
[Jergul]: "I am going to hedge any bet on it getting particularly bad in India. For all the reasons I have mentioned."

Prepare to be wrong, for all the reasons I mentioned and for all the reasons that have been reported in the previous weeks by India health reports — reports that have continued to caution India against their mounting errors and their awaiting disaster.

A country's effectiveness in preventing viral spread depends on some criteria that India has not met:
• Travel restrictions -> India: Some international restrictions, some local restrictions; no widespread restrictions; trains still running, capacity cut by only about 30%
• Social distancing encouraged -> India: No nationwide encouragement; 10% of the population affected by enforced distancing and curfews; city-specific management with many large population centers having no guidance on group sizes
• Restaurants/bars officially closed -> India: service jobs mostly unaffected outside of the 10% zones
• Widespread testing -> India: No widespread testing; testing limited to private facilities and well-funded areas
• Lockdown -> 10% affected by lockdowns

Maybe hedge your bets a *little*? ;)
jergul
large member
Tue Mar 24 04:49:30
CC
I was not implying immunity for younger age groups, but merely pointing that things are worse for older populations.

No joke. We know this years mortality will be higher in the US for example, then lower in 2021 and 2022 as some of those that would have otherwise died then, die in 2020 instead.

To put it more bluntly. A significant portion of US deaths have been from people in assisted living facilities. That is unlikely to occur in India in anywhere near the same scale. Assisted living does confer life extension...until it does not.

This is not a question of how virii work. Its a question of how mortality does.

India does however keep track of people who die. We will see excess mortality from corona in its statistics.

Check your news streams. India has adapted the hammer approach with barbed wire across highways and all the goodies you expect. It is doing so at an earlier point in time that China did.

Oh, I get it. You still think that the outbreak can be contained in the West. I disagree.

India has a shot at containment. It may not succeed, but then it will just be where we will be.

Are you really so sure that excess mortality in India for 2020 is going to be higher than in the US? As a % of the total population?

I am almost certain it will not. You may want to hedge your bet there ;).
kargen
Member
Tue Mar 24 05:25:33
According to the CDC 23,000 people have died during this flu season. A higher number of young people have died compared to past years. They also say all the flu strains this season are susceptible to the flu vaccines available.

To many people have a fuck it attitude in the US for numbers related to the Corona virus to be low compared to other developed countries. I'm guessing we are going to have more than one wave of this shit before all is said and done where other countries could be one and done.
Cherub Cow
Member
Tue Mar 24 07:20:57
[Jergul]: "I was not implying immunity for younger age groups, but merely pointing that things are worse for older populations."

But you *were* implying that India's population would not be as affected by coronavirus mortality due to its lower median age — which again, is completely false.

..
[Jergul]: "A significant portion of US deaths have been from people in assisted living facilities."

Whether or not there exist assisted living facilities is *not* a major factor in coronavirus mortality — population density, preparation, and access to health care would be factors. That is, India not having assisted living facilities will *not* keep them from having a higher mortality rate than normal. If that's what you mean, then you'd wrong. India has plenty of high density areas with elderly people, low preparation standards, and low health care access to substitute for the U.S.'s issues with assisted living facilities.

..
[Jergul]: "We will see excess mortality from corona in its statistics."

Again, ***if*** they fix their reporting standards, *then* we'll see accurate coronavirus statistics. So far, we have **not** seen coronavirus mortality reported correctly in India. It does not look like it will be reported correctly for *weeks*.

So get specific, Jergul. Right now it looks like you're saying that all of the past and present deaths will be accounted for — no timeline. So do you mean that coronavirus statistics will be correctly reflected in.. three weeks? Four? Because I was saying that unless they fix their reporting standards rapidly, they will be dealing with a months-long deficit of deaths which they did not properly assign to coronavirus. Those deaths may not be assigned correctly to coronavirus until third party evaluation or the mid-year or end-of-year Death Rate reporting reveals a strange increase in the year's mortality rate which just happens to coincide with India's outbreak. That didn't happen in the States, because even the States, prior to mass testing, had qualified doctors who had to diagnose and report coronavirus deaths. In the States, the dead mostly go to hospitals/morgues and have to be processed for cause of death. In India, most people die at home and get cremated the next day.

..
[Jergul]: "Check your news streams. India has adapted the hammer approach with barbed wire across highways and all the goodies you expect. It is doing so at an earlier point in time that China did."

I *did* check the news — that's what all those links were, Jergul. Pay attention. Barb wire across highways and other sporadic methods in ****10%**** of Indian cities. 10% of a 1.3 billion-person country with major wealth inequality and major healthcare inequality. They have fallen well behind China, and they do not even have the resources to recognize it yet.

..
[Jergul]: "Oh, I get it. You still think that the outbreak can be contained in the West. I disagree."

Umm, no. Where did you get this nonsense?

..
[Jergul]: "India has a shot at containment. It may not succeed, but then it will just be where we will be."

False again. India does not have the medical infrastructure of the West (particularly the U.S., the UK, France, and Germany). It will be far worse in India. I think India will out-compete Italy in terms of total deaths (Italy currently at 6,077 deaths), but again, it may not be reflected until the Death Rate statistics arrive.. though.. honestly, in April, when they finally have enough test kits, they may still have people dying of coronavirus in large numbers, so they may still pass 6,077 even without earlier good reporting.

..
[Jergul]: "Are you really so sure that excess mortality in India for 2020 is going to be higher than in the US? As a % of the total population? [/] I am almost certain it will not."

No. I am not talking %population Death Rate comparisons between countries. It's unlikely that their 2020 Death Rate will be higher than the 2020 U.S. Death Rate when adjusted for their population, I did not previously speculate on that, and India has so many people that I don't think that adjusted percentage would be useful anyways (especially considering it would be fractions of a percentage changes). And, of course, the 2020 U.S. Death Rate is already projected to be much higher than that of India, even before coronavirus calculations:
India: 7.309 deaths per 1000 people, a 0.49% increase from 2019
U.S.: 8.880 deaths per 1000 people, a 1.12% increase from 2019
http://www.macrotrends.net/countries/IND/india/death-rate

So, between countries, I'm talking about total quantity dead. I am saying that India will have a higher total death quantity (overall) than the U.S.. They will have a higher % increase in the Death Rate than projected compared to *themselves*.

Current reported total deaths due to COVID-19:
India: 10
U.S.: 593

First diagnosed death by COVID-19:
India: January 30th, 2020
U.S.: March 5, 2020
Paramount
Member
Tue Mar 24 08:21:21
German man licks ticket machine 'to spread coronavirus’

Police have arrested a man in Munich after he shared videos online where he licked a subway ticket machine. He said he wanted to spread the coronavirus.

http://www...-spread-coronavirus/a-52887069


The police should arrest people who are coughing also. Because if they are contagious they could easily spread the Corona.
jergul
large member
Tue Mar 24 08:49:24
I implied that a younger population will die less than an older population - all other things being equal.

I also implied that a young population will require less hospitalization than an older population - all other things being equal.

Both of which are fully supported by statistics.

I think that the only way we can measure the impact of the pandemic is by looking at excess deaths for 2020 compared to 2019. Everyone is missing Covid-19 deaths.

This is best done in 2021. And yes, it is very unlikely that India's death rate will increase more than the US.

Age adjusting? Why would you be doing that? That would be trying to understate how badly hit a country with an older population was.

India will indeed have more dead. Because their population is huge. What an odd metric to use.

You may want to check the newsfeeds again. Some of your initial claims are false (all rail is shut down in India. All foreign airflights are barred from landing in India).

First reported confirmed death? What are you suggesting that means? I am honestly curious.

Yes, we know that India is not testing much. But it is testing enough to tell us what % of those tested are infected.

We will agree to disagree on if India has a shot at containment or not. It ultimately depends on the degree of State control it can exert over its citizens.

A proxy for authoritarianism if you will.

jergul
large member
Tue Mar 24 08:58:07
Your general thesis that more people will die this year in India than anywhere else is a bit underwhelming honestly.
Daemon
Member
Tue Mar 24 11:34:20
http://www...is-very-bad-for-their-business

Sinaloa Cartel Drug Traffickers Explain Why Coronavirus Is Very Bad for Their Business

The chemicals used for manufacturing meth and fentanyl are mainly sourced in China, and cartels in Mexico are running low.
[...]
Pillz
Member
Tue Mar 24 16:15:43
They'll just ship more yeyo
Pillz
Member
Tue Mar 24 16:33:07
Can't help but feel Quebec's move to inflate total cases is to save Legaults career after all these lockdown measures.
sam adams
Member
Tue Mar 24 18:25:35
A young person finally died of the chinavirus in the us.
obaminated
Member
Tue Mar 24 18:37:58
in LA so likely a drug addicted black or a fat mexican.
sam adams
Member
Tue Mar 24 22:08:53
There was a critical case here my age that had me worried but im less concerned now that i learned it was a fat mexican.
Daemon
Member
Wed Mar 25 04:03:19
Someone just got rich

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN21B1T0


German customs officials are trying to track down about 6 million face masks, ordered to protect health workers from the coronavirus, that they say went missing at an airport in Kenya.

"The authorities are trying to find out what happened," a German defence ministry spokeswoman said, confirming a report first published by Spiegel Online.

A Kenyan Airports Authority (KAA) spokeswoman said investigations had found nothing so far.
(…)

jergul
large member
Wed Mar 25 04:19:24
Daemon
Not to mention new emails asking for help to get 6 million face masks out of Kenya.
CrownRoyal
Member
Wed Mar 25 08:04:27

“ Trump privately appeals to Asia and Europe for medical help to fight coronavirus

Despite president’s rhetoric that the US would not rely on foreign nations for help, the administration has approached European and Asian partners

The US has been appealing to its allies for help in obtaining medical supplies to overcome critical shortages in its fight against coronavirus.

In his public rhetoric Donald Trump has been talking up the domestic private sector response to the crisis.

“We should never be reliant on a foreign country for the means of our own survival,” Trump said at a White House briefing on Tuesday evening. “America will never be a supplicant nation.”

However behind the scenes, the administration has approached European and Asian partners to secure supplies of testing kits and other medical equipment that are in desperately short supply in the US.

On Tuesday, Trump spoke by phone with the South Korean president, Moon Jae-in, asking if his country could supply medical equipment.

The official White House account made no mention of the request, but according to the South Korean presidency, the Blue House, the call was made at Trump’s “urgent request”.

Trump praised the South Korean testing programme, which has helped contain the outbreak there. Moon told Trump that he would support South Korean exports of critical supplies to the US “if there is a domestic surplus”....

... The US is turning its allies at a time when it has strained relations with many of them. Trump has been demanding South Korea pay much more, reportedly up to $5 bn a year, to cover the costs of US troops based on its soil and the US military has threatened to lay off thousands of Korean employees if Seoul does not agree to a deal.


http://www...ical-help-to-fight-coronavirus

^the art of the deal + maga all at once.


The Children
Member
Wed Mar 25 08:05:47
already posted this.

yannkees being xposed and being embarassed.
LazyCommunist
Member
Wed Mar 25 09:32:08
Trump would NEVER dare this

http://med...coronavirus-hospital-in-moscow
sam adams
Member
Wed Mar 25 11:19:24
The US data support a death rate and hospitalization rate about 10x more than the flu.
Paramount
Member
Wed Mar 25 11:25:31
” The US has been appealing to its allies for help ”

So... is Israel and Saudi Barbaria going to help?
jergul
large member
Wed Mar 25 11:27:26
Ruggy
This forum does not understand percentages. If I say Trump has a 40% chance of winning, then you and others will say - hahahaha jergul was wrong if he did win.

So I am going with universes. We may or may not be living in a universe were trump wins the next election.

Its seems easier to grasp for some reason.
jergul
large member
Wed Mar 25 11:28:46
On topic

Its quite an exciting race to see who will pass China's infection rate first. The US or Italy.
jergul
large member
Wed Mar 25 11:29:12
Infection number. Both have passed its rate a while back.
Daemon
Member
Wed Mar 25 12:04:49
The super spreaders in South Korea were religious retards

http://edi...r-spell-coronavirus/index.html

Pastor again defies state order not to hold large gatherings. He says 1,000 people came to his church Sunday


Remember the Louisiana pastor who defied the governor's order not to hold gatherings larger than 50 people?
He held services again on Sunday, and he plans to do so yet again on Tuesday night.
On Sunday, Pastor Tony Spell said, his Life Tabernacle Church in Baton Rouge drew about 1,000 people to its services, in part by busing people in from across five parishes.

On Tuesday evening, the pastor plans to hold services again, despite the governor's stay-at-home orders, a petition seeking his arrest and a flood of criticism from fellow Christians.
"If they close every door in this city, then I will close my doors," Spell told CNN on Tuesday. "But you can't say the retailers are essential but the church is not. That is a persecution of the faith."
Spell has told CNN he believes the pandemic is "politically motivated."
[...]
The pastor told CNN that people been cured of HIV-AIDS and cancer at his worship services, which feature faith-healing, speaking in tongues and other spiritual hallmarks of Pentecostalism.

Asked what he would do if a member of his congregation contracted coronavirus, Spell shifted the blame.
"Did they contract it at Walmart or Target?" he asked. "They have more people in their parking lot than we get here in a week."
chuck
Member
Wed Mar 25 13:13:51
NYC seems turbo fucked. The fact that America's biggest city is now basically an 8.6 million person Covid science experiment is insane. That people elsewhere in the US are watching it in real time and still doing the "well, it'll be different here" rationalization jig is also insane.

De Blasio was initially hesitant to close down schools, bars, and restaurants because of the economic impact; he only issued the order reluctantly on 3/15 when aides threatened to resign and teachers threatened to strike[1].

It seems like he'd finally had his come to Jesus moment by 3/17, when he told New Yorkers to be ready for a shelter-in-place order within the next 48 hours[2]. At this point Cuomo started a pissing contest, saying De Blasio didn't have the authority to enact such a measure, only the state did, and that the state was not interested in enacting any such measures in any of its municipalities[2]. The state's stance shifted, more and more non-essential workers were told to stay home, until finally on 3/20 100% of non-essential workers were ordered to stay home starting 3/22 and NY entered lockdown-lite[3]. Both the 3/15 bar/restaurant order and the 3/20 state order had a 48 hour lag between issuance and coming into effect. That could be important given known infections are doubling basically every three days in NYC right now.

Meanwhile, the hospital system is already under strain today. NYC hospitals have already been forced to ignore CDC guidance that healthcare workers who have had a high risk exposure to Covid (i.e. prolonged duration, in close contact with a symptomatic Covid patient where neither the worker nor the patient were wearing PPE) be isolated; at this point everybody keeps working at least until they become symptomatic.

Someone dear to me works in an NYC hospital. The timeline at that hospital so far has been approximately:

- 3/10: no confirmed cases, handful of suspected cases pending test results
- 3/12: first two confirmed cases at the hospital
- 3/18: two floors of the hospital devoted to Covid patients sick enough to require hospitalization
- 3/24: four floors of the hospital devoted to Covid patients sick enough to require hospitalization

Obviously there are only so many floors in the place. The mainstream news reports of supply shortages are also accurate. They're well on their way to being overwhelmed. Only hope is that the measures to reduce spread that were taken show up dramatically in the growth rate soon (more on that, later). They may be able to handle one more doubling but I doubt they can handle two more.

Incidentally, I find the "Welp, the country tried approximately three days of measures to stop this, let's get ready to go back to normal folks!" opinion which some national authority figures have expressed infuriating. NYC alone has almost twice as many confirmed cases now as Italy had when it enacted its nationwide lockdown on 3/9 and the Italian daily death rate didn't peak until they hit 791 deaths per day on 3/21 - a twelve day lag. Per capita, our healthcare system is less prepared and our restrictions aren't as strong. Even if cowboys in Wyoming don't have the population density to really need to worry about this, the rugged individualists in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th tier cities of America (and maybe their suburbs too? Who knows, we're running a science experiment here!) probably do. The time to requisition ventilators and masks to fight the first wave has already passed. The marginal cases who would have survived with modern medical intervention will now have their fate determined by the characteristics of a virus we do not fully understand yet, like in the good ol days.

In New York state 13% of cases have required hospitalization and a quarter of those (so ~3.25% of the total) have required ICU care[4]. You don't have to be a stable genius to work out that, as an individual, if you need ICU level treatment and there is no ICU treatment available, you're probably up a fucking creek. It's also not hard to figure out that just 3.25% of a big number can still be a big number. We don't know how many cases are either asyomptomatic or mild and uncounted. The science experiment we're running now will tell us I guess; that some conservatives want to assume the best case and pivot to focusing on the economy reeks of unearned confidence and and misplaced priorities.

The world, including Italy, looked at China and said "meh, that sucks, probably no biggy for us tho." This pattern has repeated itself several times at this point. Each time, everybody says "well, we're not like that last place because <x>." Maybe the dickheads chomping at the bit for a return to normality and talking about the number of car crashes a year and how their 401k looks right now before NYC - which is just a beachhead - has stabilized need to stfu for a minute. Your "acceptable losses" numbers are at least as as much guesswork as the public health modeling is. Maybe New York City's density makes it special enough that a city with 100k people doesn't need to worry, maybe it doesn't. Why run a national science experiment to find out?
chuck
Member
Wed Mar 25 13:17:34
Copy and paste them your own self, not making four separate posts for them:

[1]: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/nyregion/coronavirus-bill-de-blasio.html

[2]: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/nyregion/coronavirus-nyc-shelter-in-place.html

[3]: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/us/ny-ca-stay-home-order.html

[4]: https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/23/820150795/cuomo-orders-all-hospitals-to-add-beds-as-new-york-confirms-20-000-coronavirus-c
Daemon
Member
Wed Mar 25 14:49:19
Translated:

http://www...-keine-patienten-ueber-80-mehr

According to the German Institute for Disaster Medicine, the situation at the University Hospital in Strasbourg is partly tragic due to the corona pandemic. Since 21st March, patients over 80 years of age and in critical condition are no longer being ventilated with COVID-19, according to a letter from the Institute's management to the Baden-Württemberg Ministry of the Interior, which has been submitted to the Protestant Press Service (epd).
[...]
The authors describe a picture of the situation at the University Hospital in Strasbourg following a meeting with doctors working there. Since Sunday, the University Hospital in Strasbourg has had to admit one ventilator-dependent patient per hour due to a corona infection. In the normal intensive care unit, all single rooms are occupied.

The doctors in Strasbourg experience many infections with their patients, "especially fungi, but also bacterial superinfections", according to the descriptions. Patients between 19 and 80 years of age who are subject to compulsory hospitalization are treated, three of these 90 patients are under 50 years of age and have no previous illnesses. All other patients had previous diseases of varying severity. Typical pre-existing conditions are: chronic lung diseases, asthma, pneumonia, diabetes, obesity and high blood pressure. There are currently no children under the age of 12 who require artificial respiration in the whole of France.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)
Daemon
Member
Wed Mar 25 16:04:28
I will obey

http://www...pdf/imm/covid-sex-guidance.pdf

Sex and Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

All New Yorkers should stay home and minimize contact with others to reduce the spread of COVID-19.
[...]
2. Have sex with people close to you.
•You are your safest sex partner. Masturbation will not spread COVID-19, especially if you wash your hands (and any sex toys) with soap and water for at least 20 seconds before and after sex.
Paramount
Member
Wed Mar 25 16:05:23
Doctors describe harrowing realities inside NYC emergency rooms: "It's really hard to understand how bad this is"

A "cacophony of coughing" in packed emergency rooms. Beds squeezed in wherever there is space. Overworked, sleep-deprived doctors and nurses rationed to one face mask a day and wracked by worry about a dwindling number of available ventilators.

Such is the reality inside New York City's hospitals, which have become the war-zone-like epicenter of the nation's coronavirus crisis.

Faced with an infection rate that is five times that of the rest of the country, health workers are putting themselves at risk to fight a tide of sickness that's getting worse by the day amid a shortage of needed supplies and promises of help from the federal government that have yet to fully materialize.

Patients initially showed up with fairly mild symptoms, ranging from a runny nose to a mild fever, concerned they contracted coronavirus. That shifted over the past week, McGreevy said, and now hospitals are receiving far sicker patients in need of life-saving intervention.

"These are people in severe respiratory distress, needing to be intubated and needing the intensive care unit," he said. "We knew it was coming. We saw it in Italy and other places so we were prepared for it, and now we're seeing it."

http://www...es-inside-nyc-emergency-rooms/


Maybe build a wall around New York to prevent people from going to the rest of America?
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Wed Mar 25 16:05:56
"
The LameStream Media is the dominant force in trying to get me to keep our Country closed as long as possible in the hope that it will be detrimental to my election success. The real people want to get back to work ASAP. We will be stronger than ever before!
"
~'president' of USA

we had a bell curve of concern from Trump... right back where he was a month ago
chuck
Member
Wed Mar 25 23:50:26
4,414 new positive cases in New York City for 3/25.

Using the numbers in [4] above, that's 573 more hospital beds (143 more ICU beds) spoken for in one day. Also 62 more deaths at some point down the line, using the current NYC case fatality rate (280 / 20011 = ~1.4%) which we've seen from a not quite overwhelmed just yet city healthcare system as of 3/25 PDF on nyc.gov. Perhaps scientists should try insulting coronavirus on Twitter.
jergul
large member
Wed Mar 25 23:59:05
Here is two questions.

What do you think peak daily death will be for the US?

What do you think the half-time from that peak will be (how many days for the peak number of death to be halfed)?
chuck
Member
Thu Mar 26 00:14:13
Incidentally, 573 hospital beds is larger than Elmhurst hospital in Queens, which has 545 beds. Elmhurst was featured in the news today because they had 13 coronavirus deaths at that one hospital in 24 hours and because the scene there is being described as "apocalyptic" by an ER doctor. According to that same article, a FEMA assessment predicts the 1,800 ICU beds in New York City will be fully occupied by Friday. The state has also requested 85 refrigerated trailers for storing the anticipated overflow of recently dead. You know, normal flu season stuff.

The 1,000 bed hospital ship still docked in Norfolk that fearless leader tweeted will be here real soon now (actually in repairs) is going to make a huge difference in a city that needs a new 545 bed hospital from yesterday to today.

And somehow, people are still looking at this and seeing FAKE NEWS media talking about the flu to debase their beloved God Emperor.
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Thu Mar 26 00:38:00
on the other hand, Easter is a beautiful time
chuck
Member
Thu Mar 26 00:39:10
Jergul:

I won't even try to guess at it tonight. People not from NY are texting daily about "is this really that bad?" and shit like that. Government officials are already soooooo bored of nascent lockdowns. I expect it to be easily worse in the US than it was in Italy, and that the whole way up idiots will keep making comparisons to make it sound better to idiots.

"More people die in car accidents every year"
"More people die of heart disease every year"
"More people die of car accidents and heart disease combined every year"
"More people would die if a Hiroshima era nuclear warhead hit a major American city"
"This isn't even a blip compared to what even a really quite small asteroid impact would do"
"Have you even heard of the Yellowstone super volcano though?"

NYC had 295 murders in 2018 so the total number of people who have died here from 3/1-3/25 (the date of the first confirmed NYC case) is less than the number of murders in NYC for a whole year. A year's worth of murders in 24 days? A crippled hospital system? "Do you even know how many people have heart attacks in NYC each day though?"
Paramount
Member
Thu Mar 26 01:56:58
Doctor says America is a 3rd world country:


"We don't have the machines, we don't have the beds," the doctor said.

"To think that we're in New York City and this is happening," he added. "It's like a third-world country type of scenario. It's mind-blowing."

http://edi...rus-covid-hospitals/index.html
Habebe
Member
Thu Mar 26 02:15:04
Paramount, Many Democrat strongholds in the US are third world.Look at the homeless in Cali and DC as well.
Paramount
Member
Thu Mar 26 02:23:27
” At first, patients skewed toward the 70-plus age group, but in the past week or so there have been a number of patients younger than 50.

"I don't think they understand the severity of this disease," the doctor said of the younger patients.

"Two weeks ago, life was completely different."

Public health experts, including US Surgeon General Dr. Jerome Adams, have warned the US could "become Italy," where doctors in hospitals filled with Covid-19 patients have been forced to ration care and choose who gets a ventilator.


^ How will the doctors choose? And if they don’t pick me, can I sue them in court?
Habebe
Member
Thu Mar 26 02:25:24
As for ICU beds per 100k people I live the 4th best in the country. 62.
Daemon
Member
Thu Mar 26 02:38:44
Toilet paper wars continue

http://www...ner-supermarkt-nieder-36467982

In a discount store in Rondorf, a 69-year-old woman wanted to buy four packets of toilet paper on Tuesday, but only two packets per person were allowed. A security guard is said to have pointed this out to the customer. But she apparently did not want to accept the restriction. "At first there was a discussion between the two," Jacob said.


Suddenly, the 69-year-old is said to have hit the 19-year-old with her fist against her temple. Witnesses called the 110, policemen rushed into the market and confronted the customer. She is facing criminal charges for assault. "We have to deal with such cases now", said Jacob.


The police also went to Porz on Tuesday for another operation. Passers-by had called 911 because they had seen a man on the street who apparently wanted to do the big business of toilet paper. And indeed: patrolmen met a 39-year-old man from Cologne with several packets of toilet paper.


"He sold them by the piece - for ten euros per roll", police chief Uwe Jacob told the "Kölner Stadt-Anzeiger". The officers sent the "dealer" away and wrote a report for an administrative offence. The investigation is ongoing. A possible violation of the trade law is in question.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)
Nekran
Member
Thu Mar 26 02:57:21
"He sold them by the piece - for ten euros per roll"

But... there's no shortage?
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Thu Mar 26 04:40:16
People who hoard tp should die. There, I said it.
Dukhat
Member
Thu Mar 26 05:01:10
Only half the people who get ventilators live anyways. It's best to strengthen your immune system with Vitamin C, D, and Zinc and eat lots of Kimchi. Also do HIIT 3x a week to increase lung capacity.

Also just avoid any chance of high exposure. High viral load has killed many young doctors. High exposure = death no matter the age.

If the disease gets to the point that your lungs are full enough to need a ventilator, you're fucked and/or will be crippled.
Dukhat
Member
Thu Mar 26 05:14:03
killed* or crippled
chuck
Member
Thu Mar 26 07:59:09
Habebe
Member Thu Mar 26 02:15:04
Paramount, Many Democrat strongholds in the US are third world.Look at the homeless in Cali and DC as well.

Habebe
Member Thu Mar 26 02:25:24
As for ICU beds per 100k people I live the 4th best in the country. 62.

Translation:

- "It will be different here, because <x>"
- "What happens to other people doesn't matter"
Cherub Cow
Member
Thu Mar 26 08:31:17
[Jergul]: "I implied that a younger population will die less than an older population - all other things being equal. [/] I also implied that a young population will require less hospitalization than an older population - all other things being equal. [/] Both of which are fully supported by statistics."

I agree, if that's your meaning. I would just advise you not to think that that will somehow shield India. Because, again, while the virus disproportionately affects the elderly, that's within a window of about a 20 – 30% difference (i.e., 40 – 50% elderly deaths, 50 – 60% young deaths). Not to mention that viruses do not attack randomly to fit a median age spread — they have a multivariable infection pathway (e.g., hygiene, social distance, underlying health conditions), and India has plenty of issues with those variables.

..
[Jergul]: "I think that the only way we can measure the impact of the pandemic is by looking at excess deaths for 2020 compared to 2019. Everyone is missing Covid-19 deaths. [/] This is best done in 2021."

Then we agree again, if you also understand that while "Everyone is missing [COVID-19] deaths", India has been *disproportionately* missing its COVID-19 deaths. Russia, Africa, and South America have been experiencing the same issue: under-reporting. They each have their reasons (e.g., economic cost, politics, negligence), but currently, India, the second-most populous nation in the world, has a dangerously negligent under-reporting standard.

..
[Jergul]: "Age adjusting? Why would you be doing that? That would be trying to understate how badly hit a country with an older population was."

I didn't say anything about "age adjusting", so I'm not positive about your meaning. Were those rhetorical questions? We know that aging populations can be hit harder, so I'm saying that India's other issues will come into play — its lower median age will not save it.

..
[Jergul]: "India will indeed have more dead. Because their population is huge. What an odd metric to use."

You think population makes an odd metric for predicting death toll? I hope that wasn't your meaning because that would be folly.

..
[Jergul]: "You may want to check the newsfeeds again. Some of your initial claims are false (all rail is shut down in India. All foreign airflights are barred from landing in India)."

Please avoid the disingenuous, Seb-style debating.

Firstly, you said, "your initial claims" — "claims" (plural). Then you listed rails and "airflights". You said, "some ... claims", like there could be more tucked away somewhere, but was that the complete list of my "false" "claims"? If so, you may note that I did not mention air flights. In fact, I dismissed international travel, saying, "True, but the virus has already arrived there — travel is no longer an issue locally." I.e., my claims were not hinged upon international travel. So you just misrepresented my position (a Seb-style debate tactic).

So, turning to my "claim" (singular) about rails, these were my words: "There have been *limited* closures of public gatherings, trains, and sporting events — limited to certain cities, such as Delhi and Bangalore" (Tue Mar 24 04:33:49). I mentioned this Tuesday morning, whereas the articles I can find that mention the most recent rail closure (Including BBC, MercuryNews, and Time) happened Sunday evening and Monday morning (the rail closure went into legal effect on Monday, March 23rd). Here's one:
http://www...-rail-system-to-stop-outbreak/
"The suspension included major long-distance trains and public transit in India’s big cities, exempting only freight."

Did you catch that? It sounds eerily similar to my own words, doesn't it? Does "in India’s big cities" (Mercury article) sound similar to "limited to certain cities" (my words)? It's almost like India closing its national train network was an action that mostly affected its big cities. It's almost like I said that. Hmm..

And, entertaining the super Sebbish possibility that you were potentially saying that I wasn't up-to-the-minute on my India news under some ploy to totally discredit my claim(s) based on a lame technicality (as if I would be placated by actions from a day before when I was talking about *months* of Indian failure), it would also be worth mentioning that India was doing this rail closure in phases. India was allowing all trains to complete their journey — it was not a hard stop. It takes 88 hours for India to close its network. It began closures Sunday evening, so how does that math work?: Sunday + 88 hours (3.7 days) = Thursday afternoon. So I made my comment Monday morning, and India's national network *still* (Thursday morning) has trains in motion.

If that *wasn't* a Sebbish attempt at a technicality, a good faith debater may also note that I said, "If one peasant in Nagpur has it, then hundreds of other peasants caught it on the claustrophobic train ride home." Weird! That *also* sounds a lot like this article that talks about the train closure announcement: "But key train stations were packed with thousands of migrant workers suddenly out of work and trying to head to their villages, risking carrying the infection to the nation’s vast hinterland." ( http://time.com/5808141/india-coronavirus-halts-trains/ ). That is, after the closure announcement, there was a bum rush in major cities to go to the trains, which for the next few days (up to this coming afternoon) were carrying infected persons back to their local cities which in turn will filter down to their local villages. That has been a big point of mine which has been reflected in the news: India's actions have been too late and too incomplete. They have made things worse for themselves by waiting so long, and they will be hit hard because of it.

..
[Jergul]: "First reported confirmed death? What are you suggesting that means? I am honestly curious."

Compare India's first confirmed death with its death toll, then do the same for the United States. India had its first *confirmed* death more than a month before the U.S., yet its death toll *appears* significantly lower. If I were misguided, I might say that that means that India really got things under control quickly, and India represents a "beacon in the night" of these dark dark days of coronavirus ( #BeLikeIndia ).

I know better. That detail should be sobering; India, a country which ranks about 100 countries behind the United States in terms of health care efficiency (WHO report), had coronavirus deaths a month before the United States but has only diagnosed (now) 13 deaths due to coronavirus. That means that they don't even know how many have died much less how many could be infected. And this should speak to your comment about India just "[ending up where the U.S. is now anyways]": they passed where the U.S. currently sits at least *a month ago*. That means that a month ago they had about 1000 coronavirus deaths, and they did not even realize it. Italy, arguably more sanitary than India, was at 1000 deaths around March 11th. That means that currently India could have upwards of 7500 deaths and not even know that those deaths were due to coronavirus.

Some might pretend like that's not possible, so here's yet more sourced confirmation:
"Experts have said the number of confirmed cases seemed low for the world’s second-most populous country, amid concerns that India is not testing enough people. The bulk of the testing had been aimed at international travelers and their contacts, but in recent days the government has expanded it to people in hospitals with respiratory symptoms such as pneumonia" (Mercury article).

..
[Jergul]: "Your general thesis that more people will die this year in India than anywhere else is a bit underwhelming honestly."

Oh, I'm *so* sorry that my "thesis" that thousands of Indians have already died and that many thousands more will be at risk in the coming months due to the gross incompetence and social self-destruction of an overly dense nation ranks as "underwhelming" to you. I'm *so* so sorry that you can only comprehend the meaning of mass death in terms of percentage of population comparisons with other countries rather than, say, via a recognition that many thousands of actual human beings will be dying en masse because they lack the education or guidance to know how at risk they have become. My bad! Next time, I'll be more entertaining just for *you*!

..
[Jergul]: "Yes, we know that India is not testing much. But it is testing enough to tell us what % of those tested are infected."

That statement was so content-starved that you basically just said that "the sample reflects itself and nothing else".

And I've already addressed above the issues with this kind of thinking, and I hit it again in this post with the "Experts have said" extract, so here's just a short summation: contrary to your view, India has *not* been testing enough to tell *anything* except that they do not know how to create a representative sample and that their health care system has a heavy skew towards privately wealthy individuals in a total and dangerous disregard for their well-numbered lower-caste "Untouchables" — just as has been enumerated by WHO and human rights organizations for decades.

And this represents a big distinction from even the United States. For the U.S., lots of poor people worry that they can't get tested for coronavirus if sick with symptoms — sure — that's a thing (though many places have been working to make it a free service). But in India, poor people have been so systematically denied access to even walking into a hospital that they will die at home of coronavirus without even being acknowledged in a statistical sample. Unless India makes it a health initiative to go out into poverty zones and test people for free, they won't even know how bad it is.

..
[Jergul]: "We will agree to disagree on if India has a shot at containment or not. It ultimately depends on the degree of State control it can exert over its citizens. [/] A proxy for authoritarianism if you will."

So far their "authoritarianism" has been patchy at best. India made its *first* nationwide efforts for social distancing this *Sunday*: "Modi’s call for a 14-hour voluntary curfew on Sunday was the first nationwide effort at social isolation practices" ( Mercury article ).

You can catch fresh videos of people being caned in the street for being out past quarantine curfew, but don't count too heavily on India making up for its mounting issues with some last minute crowd control. A country with 8 NYCs (in terms of population), high density / crowding, a culture built around physical contact, wide-spread education and wealth disparity, sanitation on par with a dive bar toilet, and a two month deficit in proactive measures will have its first round of significant testing done starting next week. They better step up their "authoritarianism" to Domitian Rome *really* quickly.
jergul
large member
Thu Mar 26 09:18:16
CC
I was pointing to our newsfeeds giving us strikingly different information. It could have been a timelapse function.

We seem to agree on the core - yah, India may very well have the highest raw numbers of excess deaths.

Its per capita excess deaths are not likely be higher than the US in my opinion.

Yes, India will have to step up its game if it wants to contain, but it does have a serious shot at having relatively low infection rates.

The difference in our perspectives is underwhelming and nothing to hash hay over.
The Children
Member
Thu Mar 26 09:38:07
shithole implosion makes grannies violent over toiletpaper.

Paramount
Member
Thu Mar 26 11:20:42
Shouldn’t we finish off thread XI before creating the XII thread?
jergul
large member
Thu Mar 26 11:39:08
We should!

Jergulmath on the things the cdc and other experts are saying re peak in 3 weeks.

Peak at 128k in 21 days. Another 45 days to bring the peak back down to today's 250. So 66 days in total for the US to have a semblance of herd immunity.

Total deaths around 2 million. Total infected in the region of 200 million. The confirmed infected will be far lower of course.

Jergulmath is fun, though morbid at times (Are their enough nukes to glass Saudi Arabia? Answer: Nope. We are shy by 3 orders of magnitude).
Average Ameriacn
Member
Thu Mar 26 11:42:57
CHINESE VIRUS!

SOCIAL DISTANCING!

WE CANNOT LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE PROBLEM ITSELF!
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