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Utopia Talk / Politics / Chinese Virus COVID19 XIII
obaminated
Member
Fri Mar 27 16:49:04
America has the highest number of infected yet has the lowest death rate. 100k infected and 1.5k dead

Meanwhile socialist france has a much lower infected count while having a higher death rate.
33k infected and 2k dead

similarly, socialist UK also has a lower infected count and yet has a much higher death proportion.
15k infected and 800 dead.

discuss
obaminated
Member
Fri Mar 27 16:49:39
http://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
obaminated
Member
Fri Mar 27 16:50:35
oh, and obviously italy is shit
86k infected with 9k dead
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Fri Mar 27 16:51:12
"has the lowest death rate"

who told you that?
obaminated
Member
Fri Mar 27 16:54:25
even netherlands has a bad ratio
8600 infected and 550 dead so that is like what? 15 percent? and wow looks like it is just heating up there, in the past day they had 1.2k new cases and 112 deaths.
obaminated
Member
Fri Mar 27 16:54:46
has one* of the lowest death rates.

missed a word.
hood
Member
Fri Mar 27 16:55:03
Serious/Critical increased by 15% despite 250 new deaths. That means the 350 change in serious/critical was a net 600 new people in serious/critical condition. Out of 2100 cases the day before, you're looking at almost 33% new serious/critical cases.

More will die and it will start raining soon. We haven't been in the shit long enough for the bodies to hit the floor.
hood
Member
Fri Mar 27 16:55:50
"8600 infected and 550 dead so that is like what? 15 percent?"

Mexican math is almost as bad as jergulmath.
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Fri Mar 27 16:55:59
the Johns Hopkins link (US now has more precise geographically located dots)

http://gis...a7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Fri Mar 27 16:57:12
our death count rose rapidly today so a bit early to brag... unless you are Trump
obaminated
Member
Fri Mar 27 16:58:43
whats the right percentage, hood?
hood
Member
Fri Mar 27 16:59:41
550/8600 is something like 6%. Surely you know the decimal trick? Move it to the left 1 place and you have 10% (in this case, 860).
obaminated
Member
Fri Mar 27 17:01:05
i dont think 550 is 6% of 8600....
obaminated
Member
Fri Mar 27 17:02:24
nope, you are right, i am wrong.
sam adams
Member
Fri Mar 27 17:02:45
It looks like the uk and france are so poor and or mismanaged they cant afford tests.
jergul
large member
Fri Mar 27 17:03:16
I recommend carrots and water. I read somewhere on the internet that the combo cures everything.

Hood
Jergulmath is a series of methods. Its great now when the underlying data is terrible anyway.

You could probably interprete the raw data through the lens of chicken entrails and be about as right as epidemic experts.
sam adams
Member
Fri Mar 27 17:04:11
Thus they give the appearance of higher death rate when it is more likely lower test rate.

Either way, lol third world.
TJ
Member
Fri Mar 27 17:05:50
6.4%
jergul
large member
Fri Mar 27 17:07:33
Sammy
I think everyone knows excessive death rates are created by insufficient testing.

Sample sizes are still to small for any randomized testing to give any indication of mortality rates.

We just know that it will always be lower than the % of confirmed cases because selection bias.
jergul
large member
Fri Mar 27 17:14:45
Also, false positives in a randomized test will deflate the true mortality rate. In addition, the disease has a timeline. People infected now who are not dead, might be dead later.

The mud will clear somewhat when we can look at the pandemic retrospectively.

But I am certain that the best measure will always be excess deaths in 2020 compared to 2019.

Its easiest to just count corpses.
jergul
large member
Fri Mar 27 17:27:03
False positives are a huge factor if infection rates are low.

Say you have 1% infection rate. You test 100 000 people. 1% of the tests will be false positive, 1% of the tests will be false negative.

1000 people are actually infected
100 will incorrectly register as negative.


99000 people are not infected.
990 will incorrectly register as positive.

1% of the 1000 actual infected will die. or 10 people.

The random screening will tell you that 1850 people are infected. The same 10 people die.

So you would register 0.54% mortality rate from the screening data.

Dakyron
Member
Fri Mar 27 17:29:40
Reuters poll says that 2.6M Americans believe they have coronavirus.

Assuming half are fucking stupid, that is still 1.3M cases nationwide, and even with a 0.5% fatality rate, that would be about 7,000 deaths in the next two weeks.

I guess we will see.
Dakyron
Member
Fri Mar 27 17:30:34
http://www...nt/ar-BB11KQ22?ocid=spartandhp
jergul
large member
Fri Mar 27 17:30:44
Fri Mar 27 17:27:03
False positives are a huge factor if infection rates are low.

Say you have 1% infection rate. You test 100 000 people. 1% of the tests will be false positive, 1% of the tests will be false negative.

1000 people are actually infected
10 will incorrectly register as negative.


99000 people are not infected.
990 will incorrectly register as positive.

1% of the 1000 actual infected will die. or 10 people.

The random screening will tell you that 1980 people are infected. The same 10 people die.

So you would register 0.51% mortality rate from the screening data.
Dakyron
Member
Fri Mar 27 17:32:49
My bad, 2.3% of Americans, not 2.3M. So like 8M think they have it, which would put deaths in the next couple weeks at about 20K, once again assuming half are fucking stupid and don't have the virus.
Daemon
Member
Fri Mar 27 17:33:11
Data for states:

http://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
jergul
large member
Fri Mar 27 17:37:28
Daky
That actually gives a semblance of range.

Actual infection rate is higher than 2.3% because some people just have a cold.

It is lower than the 12% (or whatever) of those tested. Because selection bias and false positives.

So 5-8% range perhaps?

But a national average tells you absolutely nothing about your local infection rate. It could be close to 0, or pushing 20%.

Daemon
Member
Fri Mar 27 17:39:26
"2.3% of Americans"

We will get better picture of the situation once tests for antibodies are available for the masses. Several companies working on it or have finished development and are producing test kits.
http://www...sts-reveal-immune-coronavirus/
Dakyron
Member
Fri Mar 27 17:40:13
Well, at 6%, if we use jergulmath, then we are talking ~60K deaths in the coming 2 to 3 weeks. We will see.
jergul
large member
Fri Mar 27 17:42:42
Daky
To estimate deaths over two weeks with a fixed % of infected, you have to consider doubling rates of infected and the mean time from symptoms to death.
Dakyron
Member
Fri Mar 27 17:45:42
Average time of death from diagnosis is 18.5 days. Add in about 5 days for incubation, and 3 weeks seems like a good marker.

So 3 weeks from now, we can take the number of US dead from COVID-19 and get an approximate gauge of the number infected.

If it is less than 20K, then we know that poll was shit and more than 50% of the US is fucking stupid.
jergul
large member
Fri Mar 27 17:46:49
Actual infection rate is higher than 2.3% because some people just have a cold, but others are early in the incubation period or are for other reasons assymptomic*

Then we have the mindless optimists that counterbalance the hypocondriacs:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wHtywcyyno0


jergul
large member
Fri Mar 27 17:48:13
Current polling on Trumps approval rating suggest that only 45.5% of the population is fucking stupid.
TJ
Member
Fri Mar 27 17:54:28
jergul:
I put this in the TW delusional thread, my bad, you can delete, if you choose, since I'm going to post again here. Or you can delete both. :D

I thought you would respond in the other thread about vote at night. I will assume you meant sleep. You didn't confirm, so I'm following up anyway.

I live in and out of the life matrix because it aids an individuals conscious evolution. There is great value remaining in the eye of turbulence.

Staying calm in the center of the storm is a metaphor for life, and nearly a lifelong practice of mine. To be in that silent space is rewarding.

It has been a very long time that I had trouble sleeping.
obaminated
Member
Fri Mar 27 17:55:57
http://new...trump-job-approval-rating.aspx

try again, and that was 3 days ago, i really doubt his approval rating has gotten any worse considering the public is overwhelmingly on his side vs the media's portrayal of him. especially since these daily briefings have neutered the media's ability to take trump out of context. basically every day he gets an hour of wall to wall coverage where he gets to say his side and only his side of the situation, it is incredibly propagandistic but he is going up again a media machine hellbent on destroying him, so, tit for tat.
obaminated
Member
Fri Mar 27 17:56:13
^ was for jergul
jergul
large member
Fri Mar 27 18:04:04
You could check against doubling rate. A doubling rate of 7 days will give 20 600 dead in 3 weeks.

Problem is. The doubling rate is less than 7 days.
jergul
large member
Fri Mar 27 18:06:07
I meant vote. Whatever you have to tell yourself to vote GOP in November. But it rang funnier substituting with night.
jergul
large member
Fri Mar 27 18:07:33
Obam
So your estimate of Americans who are fucking stupid is higher than what 538 data suggests.

Fair enough.
obaminated
Member
Fri Mar 27 18:09:42
yeah, i run gallup.
jergul
large member
Fri Mar 27 18:11:46
You have hands on experience, so I will accept that more Americans are fucking stupid than 538 suggests.

Take the win obam.
jergul
large member
Fri Mar 27 18:13:25
(trump's rally around the flag momentum sucks btw. Bush jr. went from 51 approval to 89 after 9-11. Carter got a huge double digit boost at the start of the hostage crisis).
obaminated
Member
Fri Mar 27 18:14:49
trump hasnt had his rally around the flag moment yet, that will happen when he announces the cure. this is just an ongoing and slow march of battle against a virus while americans who hate him slowly and begrudgingly start to trust his leadership. which is a death blow for biden.
jergul
large member
Fri Mar 27 18:19:00
Nice to think Trump will take time of writing his memoirs in crayon to comment on the next adiminstration's cure announcement.
TJ
Member
Fri Mar 27 18:26:57
Ok, I don't need to tell myself anything to vote and it doesn't work for me to be told who I should vote for reserving my right.

Most politicians are evil creatures.

Everyone votes preferences between two evils or from peer pressure. I prefer filtering preferences. The one that fits them best get my vote. I like and dislike issues from both sides.
obaminated
Member
Fri Mar 27 18:28:34
http://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/1243597001754894337

boy, she really needs a handler.
Pillz
Member
Fri Mar 27 18:56:45
Mean time from symptoms to death looks like 2-3 weeks to me?
hood
Member
Fri Mar 27 19:34:39
If trump tweeted that, people would be agreeing with it, mt.
obaminated
Member
Fri Mar 27 19:41:54
difference is hillary =/= trump

it is like in the final season of mad men when one of the less charismatic creatives on the team asks Don what Don would do to fix a mistake between him and a potential client. Don says he would probably make some sort of joke about how dare the client show their face in the building again. See, that works for Don, people recognize he is joking/he gets away with it because he is charismatic. The wannabe charismatic creative tries the same thing and it comes off like he is actually telling the client he should have never shown his face in the building again.

Same thing here. Trump can speak in ways pretty much every other politician, especially someone like Hillary, can't. this is what mainstream understands about trump and what the DC media fails to accept.
Pillz
Member
Fri Mar 27 20:07:47
Has NY given any thought to executing inmates en mass to free up prison space for medical use?

obaminated
Member
Fri Mar 27 20:15:26
that is the sort of forward thinking we need to handle the NYC crisis. get your ass downtown Pillz.
sam adams
Member
Fri Mar 27 20:15:41
At the very least we should infect inmates and use them to test cures. Put em to good use.
Kaylana
Moderator
Fri Mar 27 20:38:42
It'll take a few more days for our death rate to catch up to our positive cases given our numbers increased dramatically faster than those other countries.
Pillz
Member
Fri Mar 27 20:55:02
"At the very least we should infect inmates and use them to test cures. Put em to good use."

This seems obvious, but start with the ones outside of metropolitan areas in need of hospital space. So you can keep them there in containment.

I'm looking for solutions to immediate problems!
Dukhat
Member
Fri Mar 27 21:23:49
@Sam - I mean, that's literally what China will do in order to have a vaccine by this fall. They exploit their prisoners all the time that way including for organ transplants.

It's pretty fucked up.
Billah
Member
Fri Mar 27 21:48:21
"8600 infected and 550 dead so that is like what? 15 percent?"

Obaminated is truly dumb as shit. Wow.
obaminated
Member
Fri Mar 27 21:52:32
yeah, there is a reason my job doesnt involve math.
Billah
Member
Fri Mar 27 22:12:40
I bet you don't even tip because calculating 15% is obviously far beyond your meager mental abilities
obaminated
Member
Fri Mar 27 22:13:46
actually i just do 20% specifically for that reason.
Billah
Member
Fri Mar 27 22:20:07
I bet you pull out your phone calculator to figure out what 20% of your tab is, right?
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Fri Mar 27 22:23:54
10% is easy to figure... then just add half again

simple way to 15
Billah
Member
Fri Mar 27 22:26:17
tumbleweed we all learned that in second grade or so. Or so I thought.
obaminated
Member
Fri Mar 27 22:29:11
but what if we get into 17.50 whats 15% of that? easy to get 10% and then double it. bingo.
obaminated
Member
Fri Mar 27 22:29:40
either way, math isnt my strong suit. i will not even try to argue that one.
Billah
Member
Fri Mar 27 22:35:49
OK Obaminated. promise not use a calculator. What is 20% of $17.50??
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Fri Mar 27 22:37:06
just round to 20... 2+1 = 3.00
or to 18... 1.8 + 0.9 = 2.70

depending how precise you are trying to get
sam adams
Member
Fri Mar 27 22:39:25
"@Sam - I mean, that's literally what China will do in order to have a vaccine by this fall. They exploit their prisoners all the time that way including for organ transplants."

They arent wrong. Its not even that fucked up.

Especially in this case where the odds of dieing is less than 1%.
obaminated
Member
Fri Mar 27 22:40:48
1.75+1.75 350
sam adams
Member
Fri Mar 27 22:40:54
Think of it as a way to repay their debts to society.
obaminated
Member
Fri Mar 27 22:41:08
or 4 dollars obvi
hood
Member
Sat Mar 28 01:11:20
"Trump can speak in ways pretty much every other politician, especially someone like Hillary, can't."

Yes, because the cult of personality built up around him has thrown any moral compass they might have had and every shred of dignity they'll ever have right out the window.

That was kind of my point. You hacks will excuse literally anything Trump does, but then pile on Hillary (who does deserve a pile on for that comment... just not from hypocrites) for whatever she does.
Paramount
Member
Sat Mar 28 04:05:30
Trump wants ‘packed churches’ and economy open again on Easter despite the deadly threat of coronavirus

President Trump said on Fox News he wants the U.S. economy to “open” back up by Easter Sunday, even as the number of coronavirus cases in the country accelerates.

In another Fox interview, Trump said, “You’ll have packed churches all over our country … I think it’ll be a beautiful time.”

Trump said he offered the holiday as a deadline because “Easter’s a very special day for me.”


“Obviously Trump is not rooted in reality,” said Dr. Tina Tan, a board member of the Infectious Diseases Society of America and a staff member at Lurie Children’s Hospital of Chicago.

“This is the making of a major public health disaster. I am not sure where he is getting his information from, but it is extremely flawed,” Tan said.

- -

Can’t Trump fire her?
Pillz
Member
Sat Mar 28 07:59:08
We should all be thankful we didn't have to play utopia with obaminated...
jergul
large member
Sat Mar 28 09:08:14
Pillz
How can you say that? His elite Orc defence is beautiful. The greatest ever. Soon to be 100k.
TJ
Member
Sat Mar 28 10:20:52
Careful jergul, that speak might rub off and become a habit.
jergul
large member
Sat Mar 28 10:36:49
Nah, it takes a while to perfect. I forgot to insult Pillz for example.

Pillz, such a bad utopia player. A loser. Obaminated's elite orc defence is beautiful. The greatest ever. Soon to be 100k

And even that is not right. Emulating sociopathy is hard.
Pillz
Member
Sat Mar 28 10:38:48
Your bad utopia jokes trigger me
TJ
Member
Sat Mar 28 10:54:43
hahaha
Daemon
Member
Sat Mar 28 11:02:43
jergul is exploiting the crisis:

http://techcrunch.com/2020/03/26/norwegian-school-whereby/

A school in Norway has stopped using popular video conferencing service Whereby after a naked man apparently “guessed” the link to a video lesson.

According to Norwegian state broadcaster NRK, the man exposed himself in front of several young children over the video call. The theory, according to the report, is that the man guessed the meeting ID and joined the video call.

One expert quoted in the story said some are “looking” for links.

Last year security researchers told TechCrunch that malicious users could access and listen in to Zoom and Webex video meetings by cycling through different permutations of meeting IDs in bulk. The researchers said the flaw worked because many meetings were not protected by a passcode.

School and workplaces across the world are embracing remote teaching as the number of those infected by the coronavirus strain, known as COVID-19, continues to climb.
sam adams
Member
Sat Mar 28 11:14:20
Pedos should definitely be used for medical experiments.
jergul
large member
Sat Mar 28 12:51:05
Stuff like that would cut into my quality time posting here. Nevermind that the link guesser could be from anywhere on the planet.
TJ
Member
Sat Mar 28 13:12:06
It is a good thing for now that you are in a different universe, jergul, never mind. ;)
jergul
large member
Sat Mar 28 13:29:12
Only a small fraction of US counties have confirmed infections. I could not be assed to count manually, but it looked like 10-15% of 3000 odd.
chuck
Member
Sat Mar 28 14:06:40
obaminated
Member Fri Mar 27 18:14:49
trump hasnt had his rally around the flag moment yet, that will happen when he announces the cure. this is just an ongoing and slow march of battle against a virus while americans who hate him slowly and begrudgingly start to trust his leadership. which is a death blow for biden.

---

Some people are too stupid to live :_(
Daemon
Member
Sat Mar 28 14:16:09
Nursing homes ruin German death rate! (translated)

http://www...woelf-Tote,coronavirus962.html


165 dementia patients are cared for in the Hanns-Lilje home in Wolfsburg. The fact that more than 70 of them are infected with the coronavirus remains hidden for a long time. Then twelve residents die within a few days. Many more are infected.

In a nursing home in Wolfsburg twelve residents have died since Monday as a result of an infection with the corona virus. This was announced by the head of the city's health department, Friedrich Habermann, at a press conference. Wolfsburg's Lord Mayor Klaus Mohrs spoke in the city hall of an "unfortunate development". Of the 165 dementia patients cared for in the facility, 72 had tested positive for corona.

The number of all confirmed corona cases in the city increased to 122, all confirmed deaths coming from the home of the Diakonie Wolfsburg. A part of the deceased had shown no symptoms immediately before death, said health department head Habermann. "This was a surprise to all of us."

According to this, the extent of the outbreak at the Hanns Lilje home was also unknown for a long time: Systematic tests began only on Thursday, said Mayor Mohrs. The first resident had tested positive in the hospital on March 18. The first death occurred on 23 March. Four more residents died on Thursday and Friday. Two more deaths occurred on Saturday.

In order to contain the outbreak, the nursing home wants to isolate the residents who tested positive from those who tested negative. However, the outbreak is hardly controllable, said Ralf-Werner Guenther, head of the Diakonie. Since the residents are all suffering from dementia, they could not understand the sense of a contact ban. "The perspective we have at the moment is a catastrophic perspective."

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Sat Mar 28 14:39:09
"A part of the deceased had shown no symptoms immediately before death"

in other words people were getting suspicious of what Germany was up to, so they are killing off people to pad their death count
jergul
large member
Sat Mar 28 17:02:11
Its crazy how much we depend on China containing its outbreak.

It was gearing up for 1.3 billion vulnerable, so is producing tons of stuff right now.

Norway got its 2nd planeload of stuff. The amounts are enough to make a difference.
Daemon
Member
Sat Mar 28 18:09:52
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52061381

Coronavirus: Russia sees no epidemic but starts shutdown
Habebe
Member
Sat Mar 28 18:22:07
In reality all of these numbers are probably way off.

Factor in

1. Who is getting tested, if your testing only the worst cases in people who are at risk, your death % will be higher.

2.The accuracy of the tests.

3. How many people who were not tested who died.

4.The segments of population that are infected.If mostly ypung healthy people are sick your death toll will be.lower.

5. Most importantly is the access to organic carrots and fresh water.
jergul
large member
Sat Mar 28 19:27:18
Wuhan data is starting to look pretty robust. Except for carrot and water access that is not measured and may give a significant error if extrapolated to regions with full carrot availability.

0.3% mortality of those infected under 30
0.5 mortality of those infected 30-60
2.5% mortality of those infected 60+

Wuhan data probably overestimated the number of infected with symptoms even as slight as a cold. It used clinical diagnosis to supplement test results. False positives pull the other way of course.

Now, some countries may have populations biologically older than their chinese counterparts (life style diseases).

Wuhan followed the pattern we should expect virtually everywhere. Hospitals overwhelmed, then slowly surging to increase capacity.

But all in all, 1.4% mortality if the same age bracket as China. That close to 3 times higher than I thought.

Just add what % of a population needs to be infected for herd immunity to slow the spread to a virtual standstill and you know how many people will die.

I think we can discount stopping covid-19. We don't have enough Asian in us to do that.
Dukhat
Member
Sat Mar 28 19:42:08
You need 80% for absolute herd immunity and if that many get it in 6 months, our hospitals are fucked. Even 30% getting it makes most of the map red.

Better to suppress for 3-6 weeks like Bill Gates says and just continue on our lives with lots of social distancing. Meanwhile, therapies improve, testing improves, surge capacity is increased, and the production of PPE takes off allowing the general population to use it along with healthcare workers and maybe most importantly, the workers who take care of the elderly and immunocompromised.
Dukhat
Member
Sat Mar 28 19:43:01
Also serological tests can be used to identify if there's a hidden iceberg of people who already got this but had no symptoms. These people would be key in helping to fight the disease since they are practically immune.
jergul
large member
Sat Mar 28 19:46:41
They are not practically immune. They are immune.

Universal healthcare nations will probably do a bit worse. Particularly if they are good at keep the frail and old alive under normal conditions.

People who would have already died under less robust systems before corona will die now in places like Norther Italy.
Paramount
Member
Sun Mar 29 02:30:23
Is this it? Has the war begun now?

http://youtu.be/2bgCCXSrwHA
Daemon
Member
Sun Mar 29 03:28:05
http://www...s-bought-from-china/a-52949216

Coronavirus: Netherlands recalls 'defective' masks bought from China

Hundreds of thousands of masks sent to Dutch hospitals have been recalled after tests showed they failed to protect the face or had defective filters. The Netherlands recently bought 1.3 million masks from China.
[...]
Habebe
Member
Sun Mar 29 03:35:26
Paramount, Nice link.

Daemon, Well what do you expect, it was made in China.
Paramount
Member
Sun Mar 29 04:05:23
So why did they turn off the lights for people? lol

Couldn’t people pay the bills anymore?
Habebe
Member
Sun Mar 29 04:06:54
I don't live in Palm Beach. Idk google it.
Habebe
Member
Sun Mar 29 04:11:32
I can say that while I have comtinued to pay my electric, my electric company the PDEC ( my provider) said this

"We understand the coronavirus outbreak may cause unintended financial hardships within our community, and PDEC is taking steps to support members, who through no fault of their own, are juggling financial obligations as their jobs are negatively affected by this global pandemic. Some members may face reduced employment or layoffs while other members are confined to their homes, which makes 24-hour electric service vital.

PDEC has established procedures to help members get through this difficult time. For example, we’ve suspended disconnections on accounts with past due amounts, as Governor McMaster requested of all electricity providers."
Paramount
Member
Sun Mar 29 04:19:16
I feel like there is going to be chaos soon, in a couple of weeks a month or so. Maybe stocking up on ammo isn’t such a bad idea after all. If you want food and stuff you need ammo :P

There was supposedly a video from Italy where a guy (who was feeding his daughter, threatened with riots and a revolt if he would not be able to get food for his family.
Habebe
Member
Sun Mar 29 04:24:22
Meh, I have guns, suburbans and a back up freezer for food.
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