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Utopia Talk / Politics / sebs imports behead 7 year old girl
sam adams
Member
Tue Mar 31 14:39:42
http://www....amp?__twitter_impression=true
sam adams
Member
Tue Mar 31 14:46:49
Sorry, attempted beheading.

A 7 year old white girl was walking in a public park in manchester, united kingdom, when a 30 year old muslim woman ran over and cut her throat numerous times.
Habebe
Member
Tue Mar 31 14:48:43
Savages....it doesn't really say why, just that she was stabbed.

Surely she offended there Jew-god somehow.
Paramount
Member
Tue Mar 31 14:53:44
It doesn’t say whether the attacker was imported or not, but since it was a woman it is highly likely that she suffers from a mental illness. Could be a drug addict also.
sam adams
Member
Tue Mar 31 14:54:54
British authorities are trying to cover it up and hide the attackers name and immigration status.

I wonder why?
obaminated
Member
Tue Mar 31 15:00:59
authorities do the same in the states. whenever they dont say the name of the attacker it means they are a minority.
Seb
Member
Tue Mar 31 15:14:13
No, in the UK generally the police will not release details like names etc as prejudicial to judicial proceedings. That's been the approach since forever. 19th century ideals of due process, unlike the trend for trial by media.
Seb
Member
Tue Mar 31 15:17:38
Also the perpetrator was sectioned under the mental health act, so definitely the name would be withheld.

That means two doctors considered her to be mental unfit.
Paramount
Member
Tue Mar 31 15:22:09
‘We are working to understand the motive for this completely random and brutal attack. We understand that the woman has some history of mental illness and we are working to understand if this played any part in her motive.

http://met...ath-park-12440003/?ito=cbshare
Twitter: https://twitter.com/MetroUK | Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MetroUK/


A history of mental illness. It means that she has lived there for a while, maybe years. Maybe she was born in Britain.
sam adams
Member
Tue Mar 31 15:34:19
"That means two doctors considered her to be mental unfit."

Well she is a somali muslim, so ya.
Habebe
Member
Tue Mar 31 15:53:18
"That means two doctors considered her to be mental unfit."

Well, considering the crime that seems obvious.

Paramount, Most drug addicts don't just commit random acts of violence. In my experience most crimes from addicts fall into two categories.

1. Crimes to get money and or drugs.

2. Crimes of passion, tempers flare up, especially with addicts but the target is very rarely random.
Seb
Member
Tue Mar 31 16:07:28
Sam:

On what basis do you say she's a somali muslim?

I just did a quick search for that and the only source I can find is a twitter account that is so obviously engaged in political propaganda and shit stirring I fear for your mental health.
Seb
Member
Tue Mar 31 16:09:51
(That's a lie. I don't fear for it at all.)

This is where Sam gets his "news" folks.

https://twitter.com/Orbit_VR3

"Keeping a watchful eye on the global elite."
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Tue Mar 31 17:20:18
Seb
This is awful if true, that you let these people into the UK personally. What were you thinking? I can't believe you would allow this to happen!

Sam
It is SAD if true, that you are spreading lies from this retards twitter account. I have always thought highly of you, over the years you have become like the brother I never had but always wanted so I could murder him. But now, now I just don't know anymore.
sam adams
Member
Tue Mar 31 17:46:10
"On what basis do you say she's a somali muslim?"

Odds.
sam adams
Member
Tue Mar 31 17:46:49
Although its england so i confess somali might be incorrect. Could be paki.
Seb
Member
Tue Mar 31 17:49:49
Nim:

I don't personally welcome them in, as importer I just fill in the customs declaration and place the order for them to be brought here.
Seb
Member
Tue Mar 31 17:51:09
Nim:
" I have always thought highly of you, over the years you have become like the brother I never had but always wanted so I could murder him. "

I might have to steal that...
Forwyn
Member
Tue Mar 31 17:54:48
sam:

The correct term is "Asian". lulz
Seb
Member
Tue Mar 31 17:59:00
Forwyn:
Not really used here to describe prior from the sub continent
Rugian
Member
Tue Mar 31 18:01:51
Seb
Member Tue Mar 31 17:59:00
Forwyn:
Not really used here to describe prior from the sub continent

Huh? That's, like, the exact opposite of the truth.
Seb
Member
Tue Mar 31 18:14:28
Rugian:
Sorry, that should have said "anymore."
Seb
Member
Tue Mar 31 18:19:33
You tend to see "South Asian" being used now. Or just Indian/Pakistani/Sri Lankan etc. I'm not sure if that's a consequence of "oriental" being a bad word and adopting the American usage; and the growing nationalism and sectarian differences of the various countries formally banded together as Asian.

I'm not going to die in a ditch, but do feel free to explain contemporary British culture to me from the splendid vantage point of your mother's basement in a different hemisphere.

Rugian
Member
Tue Mar 31 18:37:31
Just gonna leave this random google search here. You can peruse the results from the comfort of your spare bedroom (I assume the missus and Jorge are currently occupying your main set).

http://www...Dy0wN6BAgLECs&biw=1600&bih=786
Habebe
Member
Tue Mar 31 19:43:07
Sam's intuition have been pretty spot on in the past.

The last I recall was the Iranian plane fiasco.

Archive search?
sam adams
Member
Sun Apr 05 10:53:11
http://www...reen-crown-court-a4406911.html

Sebs people imprisoned for gang raping woman at knife point.
sam adams
Member
Sun Apr 05 10:54:24
http://www...doorman-bouncer-tudor-simionov

Three different sebs migrants jailed for stabbing a bartender to death
sam adams
Member
Sun Apr 05 10:57:14
Yikes seb your people are turning your country into even more of a shithole.
Seb
Member
Sun Apr 05 13:45:17
Sam, I think everyone's noticed how "my people" have expanded from Syrian refugees, to basically anyone who isn't a white Anglo Saxon protestant.

Nobody's remotely impressed by your ability to selectively report every criminal incident involving anyone who isn't white as though it demonstrated anything other than your commitment to attempting to portray violent crime as a uniquely non-white phenomenon.

And we also all notice how you become more prolific in this when you get called out on self-pwnage like quoting obscure misinformation accounts on social media.

I know you originally set of out to do this in some way to support the supposed objective nature of your obvious racial prejudice, but you are really just demonstrably proving wilful selection bias and highlighting that prejudice more strongly.



Seb
Member
Sun Apr 05 13:51:10
So let me reiterate, yes, I'd still afford refugee status to Syrian refugees as per current laws *despite* these crimes (none of which are by Syrian refugees) in exactly the same way I won't advocate say, hanging you for being just like Thomas Mair or Anders Brevik - an assessment made not on irrelevant characteristics like skin colour but by your often stated substantial philosophical agreement with their position.

You can keep posting these tedious threads forever if it keeps your entertained. Personally I think it only reiterates exactly how right I am that you need to resort to such frankly irrational and emotive substitutes to a real argument.
sam adams
Member
Sun Apr 05 14:56:57
Perhaps if there was just a few of these and i actually had to put any effort into this you would have a point. Alas, these stories are so widespread and they pop up all the time even in US media.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Sun Apr 05 15:03:18
Please tell me, you don’t believe media give a statistically accurate picture of what you should worry about.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Sun Apr 05 15:04:05
http://our...-news-reflect-what-we-die-from
sam adams
Member
Sun Apr 05 16:03:39
The dilution of western culture is indeed a concern. Not immediately of course, but in a few generations. The retardation of seb isnt limitted to the murders and rapes of some poor souls. Onviously cancer and car accidents claim more innocent lives for now. But seb's ethos of failure and crime has the potential to fester and grow.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Sun Apr 05 16:23:33
I am not saying you should take that link as a literal response to what you said, but that reports in the media are not a good basis for worry. Your worry is hard currency in the click bait economy. And your capacity to figure it out does not scale as well your ability to worry in this new era of information mongering.
Seb
Member
Sun Apr 05 18:15:17
Sam, people who gather their world view from mad twitter accounts at best case run by click-bait, at worst run by foreign psy-ops intending to provoke paranoia and discord, are not best placed to lecture others about a culture of failure.

Your bullshit racial superiority crud lost badly in the last century, I think it will lose in this century too if we are lucky.
Seb
Member
Sun Apr 05 18:24:24
Sam's cosplaying of rugged individualism is hilarious. Almost as good as his, pilot, military and "scientist" phases.
sam adams
Member
Sun Apr 05 19:13:14
Lol seb remember that one time you failed out of science and became a useless bureaucrat?

Ya i remember that.

Probably being unable to figure out the ideal gas law and thinking genes were fake isnt a good sign of a successful scientific mind. Wierd.

Bahahaha.
Seb
Member
Mon Apr 06 02:02:49
Sam:

Lol. You mean the time I got a job that pays twice my peers in science, delivered half a billion pounds of savings and helped steer policy of an oecd country at a time when the world , including your own country, recognised the UK approach as being uniquely effective and copied it (even the US), thus having more personal impact than your have ever had and ever will have?

It's sad. Your country is literally dying because this obsession you and your political bedfellows have with the idea that the public sector is axiomatically useless. You are, for example, buying n95 masks at huge mango markup, flying them private into the US, giving them free to private distributors, who sell them at spot market prices to buyers. Not because of clueless bureaucracy but because of an ideological belief that to have the public sector buy, ship and distribute them is an offensive bureaucratic attack on the "free market". That's Samism for you: hollow out the state and hope you can run faster than the other guy. It's a civilisational death cult.
Dukhat
Member
Mon Apr 06 02:43:08
Seb wants to defend Western culture. What culture is that? In America, redneck hillbilly culture took over the GOP. The WASP's who dominated the culture Sam is referring to are exiled from their own party because of some asshole with an orange tan.

Maybe Germany comes closest? Who knows. The terms is often batted around but it literally means next to nothing nowadays.
Dukhat
Member
Mon Apr 06 03:41:29
Sam*
Seb
Member
Mon Apr 06 03:51:44
Sam is the antithesis of the culture of free market, open society, liberal and social democracies.

He supports a sort of plutocratic ethno-nationalism; where he imagines that he is part of the capital owning over-class because he has enough excess income to buy a few bits of capital and lift himself out of the hideous, dehumanising society that his ideology necessarily requires and actively creates. He knows he can't truly win in this society, so instead he needs others to lose. And this is because he's affraid. Affraid that in a more equitable society - and these are demonstrably possible - that he'd have less status. And he probably would. This is a man deficient in compassion and empathy, who peaches individualism as a performative display of status he desperately desires others to endorse.
Seb
Member
Mon Apr 06 03:52:54
I say man, but really this is an arrested form of adolescence.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Mon Apr 06 05:18:43
Fear and worry feeds the zero sum game. It is programmed in our DNA.

Refuse to play the game, your first step towards a better world, is to stop voting and partaking in the ultimate zero sum game. A game that by design always leads to suckage for the "losers". See it was never part of the game design to make it better for everyone. This is the best we have and we are now stuck with the idea, that this is the best we can do. Don't get me wrong this game is pretty good, but so have combustion engines. Things change and pretty good does not cut it. Realize that "the lesser of two evils" leads to degeneration, demand a better game.
sam adams
Member
Mon Apr 06 10:40:07
"Your country is literally dying because this obsession you and your political bedfellows have with the idea that the public sector is axiomatically useless."

And yet your death rate is 3 times ours, per capita. How are you this retarded? How do you keep making such fundamental mistakes as this? How are you this bad at interpreting data? What is wrong with your head?
sam adams
Member
Mon Apr 06 10:50:07
Also it should be noted that the public sector isnt automatically bad... but it trends bad these days, as it becomes infested with retards like seb, drawn to its current forgiving attitude towards failure, its endless ranks of useless middle managers who do nothing, ands its current preference for feelings over facts.
Seb
Member
Mon Apr 06 11:08:51
Sam Adams:

Deaths per capita is not a meaningful measure at this stage. Viral outbreaks spread from a point along networks based on contact, and during the exponential phase - which the UK and the US is in - that's what dominates. Further the UK has adopted a US approach to hollowing out the public sector in key aspects over the last decade. Compare instead to Germany.

sam adams
Member
Mon Apr 06 11:14:24
"Deaths per capita is not a meaningful measure at this stage."

Yes, it has to be meaningless because otherwise you would look bad.

Lol
Seb
Member
Mon Apr 06 11:14:44
Sam, it tends bad because you deliberately stave it off cash, resources and status.

It becomes forgiving of failure because increasingly few high flyers want to work on low salaries while treated like shit by mediocrities such as yourself who do little of value and achieve little. You do it for a bit for the sense of purpose and drive, but it eventually wears you down, and you walk into a job that pays easily two to three times the public sector rate and which foolish politicians preaching a bastardised version of free market dogma that Adam Smith would never recognise actually facilitate to pick up the best public sector work at inflated prices.

You want to see true efficiency and taxpayer waste, look at the outsourcing market. Any good commercial worker isn't going to work for a fifth of the salary to protect taxpayers interest when the supplier will pay five times to fleece em.

You create that dynamic Sam.
Rugian
Member
Mon Apr 06 11:30:50
TFW you trigger Seb so hard that he goes full Marxist.

"Capital owning overclass?" Lmao. Literal wealth shaming. You can feel the jealousy.

Well done Sam. Both for your success in this thread, as well as for your general prosperity IRL.
sam adams
Member
Mon Apr 06 11:44:59
Sebs brain function has been sadly devolving over the last few decades, and has been increasingly making fundamental mistakes these last few years. Its no surprise he has finally made the last and greatest of all mistakes, becoming a socialist.
obaminated
Member
Mon Apr 06 11:56:27
wow seb has a total meltdown. good job SA.
Seb
Member
Mon Apr 06 15:00:19
Rugian/Obaminated:

You don't need to be a Marxist to recognize the US has developed a class system. Sam is specifically making a moral argument that those with wealth are morally superior, and those without are dirty, poor and unworthy.

"Muuh socialism" is the most pathetic argument ever.

Liberal democracy has always had an element of safety nets and a recognition of the role of the state in providing common goods. This does not mean an abolition of property ownership. It is you that is going to some weird plutocratic ethno-nationalism that attaches moral worth that is well outside the established liberal, free market, open society norm.
Seb
Member
Mon Apr 06 15:01:53
And the thing is, you don't even have a free market. You've created a system where most markets are dominated by a defacto cartel with lower levels of competition than in the supposedly socialist EU.

Seb
Member
Mon Apr 06 15:03:53
https://www.ft.com/content/97be3f2c-00b1-11ea-b7bc-f3fa4e77dd47

https://hbr.org/2018/03/is-lack-of-competition-strangling-the-u-s-economy

etc.
sam adams
Member
Mon Apr 06 15:05:06
Look at seb trying to weasel out of his marxist bullshit when he gets called out on that shit.

"Liberal democracy has always had an element of safety nets and a recognition of the role of the state in providing common goods."

Indeed. But you, being a retard, take it too far.
Seb
Member
Mon Apr 06 15:07:10
Sam:

Point out specifically where I have advocated a measure that is "too far" in this thread Sam.
sam adams
Member
Mon Apr 06 15:14:48
That was an even more retarded response than i expected. You sound like trump. Denying your own mistakes, lieing about them, making more mistakes trying to cover up your lies.
sam adams
Member
Mon Apr 06 15:21:45
"I've already trod on dangerous ground. We're on dangerous ground right now, because of our secrets and our lies. They are practically what define us. When the truth offends, we lie and lie until we can no longer remember it is even there, but it is still there. Every lie we tell incurs a debt to the truth. Sooner or later, that debt is paid. That is how an RBMK reactor core explodes. Lies."

Valery legasov, either talking about the disasters of marxist Chernobyl, trump press conferences, or sebs posts. Cant tell witch.
Seb
Member
Mon Apr 06 15:28:28
Sam:

The thing is, you can't respond because at no point did I advocate a specific position: I critiqued *your* position which as I started and finished by saying, is well outside the Free market, open society norm. Instead it's a degenerative form of crony capitalism.

It's really simple Sam, if I advocated anything Marxist or Socialist, it would be utterly trivial for you to quote it.

You can't.

I already pointed out that the US is going through a Chernobyl moment, it's a bit lazy to try and throw that back at me.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Mon Apr 06 15:50:06
He is calling you morally inferior sam, that much is clear. He is blaming your countries failure on your moral failing.

Maybe it isn’t that simple, but it is true that you and many people on this board view status and money as a good approximation for the value of human life. It aligns with my own view on how you talk about some not so PC genetic findings. It strikes me that you are no so interested in those facts to further an understanding to help people with poor impulse control and low IQ, as much as snicker and lulz about nignogs and chimp outs.
sam adams
Member
Mon Apr 06 16:00:23
"facts to further an understanding to help people"

Ahhh, but in the current world we have banished those non-PC branches of science and are not allowed to even whisper them, much less use them.
sam adams
Member
Mon Apr 06 16:01:12
So what choice do we have but to just snigger and move on?
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Mon Apr 06 16:24:53
The SJWs accept your surrender.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Mon Apr 06 16:26:25
A cop out answer, defeatist none the less.
Seb
Member
Mon Apr 06 18:16:01
Nimatzo:

Not in whole, but yes, Sam is one small chip in the crumbling of American society. He is symptomatic of the decadence that is bringing America down, though he thinks the reverse.
obaminated
Member
Mon Apr 06 21:51:30
seb, what the actual fuck are you talking about? your head of state is in the emergency room. your shitty healthcare system is not successfully stopping this virus. yet, for some fucking reason, you think america is falling apart. you are part the lingering cancer of a once great nation, you will never live up to the standards of your forefathers. you are the reason britain is a joke, your incompetence and immense insecurity was rewarded in your shitty country. and you refuse to accept it, this is why your countrymen are dying at far higher rates than my obese hillbilly natives.
Seb
Member
Tue Apr 07 03:18:08
Obaminated:

Your country has the fastest growing and largest number of deaths in the world. Entirely avoidably.

The fact the UK is doing similarly badly under a govt that has by and large aped US policies isn't the killer argument you think it is.

Why do you think I'm contrasting the UK to the US? We've had 10 years of sustained attack on our public services by govts that lean to US thinking, and unsurprisingly the NHS is struggling. Nevertheless we've still put in place a huge surge in hospital beds etc.

Our PM is in emergency care because he tried the Trumpian approach of laughing it off to protect the economy, and decided to go and visit a ward on a press visit, and his cabinet won't follow it's own advice, let alone the WHOs. Much, it has to be said, like the US.


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=n3NAx3tsy-k


Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Tue Apr 07 04:06:30
We are witnessing a rare moment where seb is NOT defending the UK, but of course you will not notice if you are an entrenched Trumpican.
Seb
Member
Tue Apr 07 04:30:41
Nim:

I'm baffled why Sweden is adopting the "herd immunity" strategy (Swedish policy is identical to UKs, even though the UKs was incorrectly presented to be about achieving herd immunity through mass infection instead of partial immunity being a consequence)..

Although Sweden has a population density, culture and medical capacity to sustain it longer, an exponential is still an exponential will explode eventually.

The only way to really do that effectively is with mass regular testing to isolate the infected, and contact tracing. Anything else and the exponential will eventually accelerate beyond bed capacity before it gets through enough of the population.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Tue Apr 07 05:55:46
We don't have the resource or capacity to surge. When the soviet union fell, everything in the way of disaster preparedness went out of the window. We had 35 field hospitals in the 90's, we now have 2 with 50 beds in thinged on only getting a few cases of Corona from the outside. No one thought it was a good idea to close the border though.

This is a repeat of the refugee crisis and the fires two years ago. New public management collides with Swedish exceptionalism.

Atleast we can comfort ourselves that this isn't THAT bad, we can make different arrangements now. But, then again, 80% of Swedes seem to approve of how things are handled. *shrugs*
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Tue Apr 07 05:57:02
Ops

"...we now have 2 with 50 beds. *Swedens Corona strategy hinged* on..."
Seb
Member
Tue Apr 07 07:28:13
Surely that even more strongly indicates a need for lock down and suppression strategy to build capacity?

Even a few cases from outside will explode eventually unless you have very robust contact tracing an enforced isolation.

obaminated
Member
Tue Apr 07 08:01:43
what the fuck do you know seb? seriously. you have been consistently wrong on everything. just shut the fuck up and let adults fix this.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Tue Apr 07 08:31:15
Seb
You would think, right? I have a hard time imagining that the negligible difference between total lock down and what we have now for the economy, has an impact. The half assed approach makes no sense. And then our head expert is on TV worried that now, the virus has spread to nursing homes all over the country, adding "our neighbors do not have this problem". GEE I WONDER WHY?

The approach and directive in Sweden has been extremely vague from the central authority on what to do. They have outsourced much of the decisions to the municipal level. A tremendously great approach to a systematic national problem.

114 people dead last 24 hours, that is about half the people that day on average in Sweden in 1 day.
Seb
Member
Tue Apr 07 09:12:14
Obaminated:

You think you are an adult?
Seb
Member
Tue Apr 07 09:16:17
Nim:

Well I'd say its good to know we aren't the only European nation fucking this up, but really it's not good at all.

I'd always thought the Swedish govts are terribly sensible on these sort of thing.

I keep squinting at the FT graph and hoping I'm seeing the trend arcing but I suspect I'm kidding myself.
sam adams
Member
Tue Apr 07 12:19:34
"The fact the UK is doing similarly badly under a govt that has by and large aped US policies isn't the killer argument you think it is."

First off the uk is doing 3x worse than the us.

Secondly what is your excuse for france italy spain switzerland belgium and the netherlands? All of which are doing much much worse. All of which are the socialist healthcare systems you treasure.

Lol seb, your ignorance of basic facts is astoundingly deficient.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Tue Apr 07 12:47:00
Population density is part of the multi-variate answer. Compare (Big) Apple with Apples.

NY is doing about as terrible as Italy and Spain.

NJ like Netherlands

Etc.

This is where you reiterate that these states are shitholes. There is really no where this discussion is going we could call fruitful.
Dukhat
Member
Tue Apr 07 12:53:32
Obaminated's brain blew up so he made an absurd ad hominem.
obaminated
Member
Tue Apr 07 12:58:05
oh fuck off cuckhat, no one likes you, im just shit faced.
Seb
Member
Tue Apr 07 13:54:11
Sam, continuing to use a per capita metric even though this is clearly at odds with the basic science.
sam adams
Member
Tue Apr 07 13:55:50
"Population density is part of the multi-variate answer."

True.

"This is where you reiterate that these states are shitholes."

Lol also true :)
sam adams
Member
Tue Apr 07 13:56:59
"Sam, continuing to use a per capita metric even though this is clearly at odds with the basic science."

Godamnit seb how did you get this dumb?
sam adams
Member
Tue Apr 07 14:00:31
The willfull ignorance that seb uses to cling to his retarded socialist sjw ideals takes retardation to a level rarely seen on this planet. Stats that make him look bad are simply ignored.
Seb
Member
Tue Apr 07 14:04:31
Nim:

Yes, but the bigger point here is around how viral outbreaks propagate. While in exponential phase, they are growing rapidly in a given network of people.

Dividing by the number of people that are (currently) beyond the extent of the spread of the virus through the network of people isn't a meaningful normalisation.

The meaningful merits metrics are the rate of increase of deaths* normalised to a common point - e.g. FT use days since 200 deaths in a week.

The US is worse than the UK overall, which is worrying for the US given the preponderant weight of London in the UK statistics and the UK having an on average older population. In fact it is worse than anywhere.

By this point, Spain, Italy and France were beginning to decelerate, whereas the US rate is marginally accelerating.

As is the UK, albeit still at a slower rate than the US.

This tends to suggest the US will overtake the UK on a per capita basis before long.
*
Seb
Member
Tue Apr 07 14:08:01
Sam:

Smashing two numbers together like a chimp basing rocks together isn't science.

Take two countries of equal population densities and other factors, other than one is five times the other.

Introduce an outbreak from a few point sources at the same time in both.

Your arguing that at all points, the death rate per capita on both will be approximately the same?

Seb
Member
Tue Apr 07 14:11:28
Only when the virus has burned through a substantial proportion of the population (over 60-70%) would you expect per capita death rates to start to converge.

sam adams
Member
Tue Apr 07 14:26:56
The uk growth rate is accelerating faster than the US growth rate. your testing rate is lower, your per capita death rate is higher, your mortality rate is higher. There is no set of stats, not one, that makes your country not suck.

Get over it seb. You are a collectivist that failed out of science. You should be used to losing.
sam adams
Member
Tue Apr 07 14:30:26
Seb, the bigger country has more starting point sources. You seem to have forgotten this. The fundamental errors you make to justify your position should be obvious.
Habebe
Member
Tue Apr 07 18:42:23
"your testing rate is lower, your per capita death rate is higher, your mortality rate is higher."

Sam, In all fairness I think these are connected. The more tests would probably drop the death rate.
Seb
Member
Tue Apr 07 21:09:42
Sam:

Incorrect
https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest (using data as of

As you can see in the latest graphs, US deaths per day are significantly higher and still trending upwards faster than the UK.

Testing rate is irrelevant for deaths.

Mortality rate is higher because we test far less, so you've included a circular argument.

"The bigger country has more starting point sources."

Wow, so much wrong with this statement.

Lets start with the basic model. This is only true if you think the patient zeros are being randomly selected from the pop at a constant rate per capita. The reality is they are traveling into the country from somewhere else, so clusters are normally based around airports, and breakout when you have people who are particularly good at spreading the virus.

It's not remotely proportional to the population at all - it depends on transport network effects. The US has (or rather had) about three big initial clusters. The UK had basically one, but London is networked to pretty much 60% of the countries population, and a higher density. You would expect the UK's exponent to give a faster doubling time than the US's, yet in fact US growth rate is faster

Next, lets forget that your proposed modelling isn't reflective of reality, and think about the maths for a second.

You are talking about a linear factor. 5 x the number of initial clusters say, if initial patients are proportional to population.

So lets say that the number of patient zeros is 5x higher than the UK. Death growth rate, crudely, in the US then would be 5*exp(k_1t) vs the uk's exp(k_2t), where k_1 and k_2 are the respective doubling times for deaths and represent some function of how "well" the country is tackling the outbreak and how susceptible the population is.

Note, if K_1 and K_2 were the same, then the linear population based factor would lead to constant offset in deaths. There is a quick and easy way to normalise this, much better than reflexively dividing by population because that's the only thing you know how to do.

If you take the no. deaths per day after say, 200 deaths, you have completely normalised out any linear term based on the number of starting infections. So you don't need to do any of the complicated thinking about the initial source terms, or make any assumptions about source terms at all. Note I mentioned this already Sam, so clearly you didn't understand the maths.

And if you plot that on a log chart, and take the gradient, you have the acceleration of death rates (i.e. how long it takes for the daily deaths to double). If K_1 > K_2, then the curve will be steeper, which it is in the case of the US vs the UK, or indeed any country in the world.

Now in reality ks will be based on a number of factors: policy interventions like social distancing measures and lockdowns, population age etc, but absent those (and in the early phases, which will dominate the difference in the two functions) these will be network effects. Population density and inter-connectedness.

So lets thing about those:
UK has higher inter-conectedness and population density, and older population, and initially virtually no testing policy, and did not shut it's borders down. So all things being equal, you would expect the UK to have a much steeper curve than the US.

Somehow, the US is doing worse. "not 5 times worse" you may say, well, you wouldn't expect the doubling time for daily deaths to be proportional to population though, just the number of deaths, but only if the outbreaks started at the same time and the exponents were the same, but all the comparison between the countries is in the exponent, which dominates over the linear term.

Your whole argument is innumerate nonsense.
Wrath of Orion
Member
Wed Apr 08 01:01:26
"Testing rate is irrelevant for deaths."

Only if a country is currently determining how many people die as a result of sars-cov-2 by doing postmortem tests. As far as I know, that is not happening in any significant number anywhere.

In that case, the only way to count people who have died due to sars-cov-2 is based on tests of living people who then die.
Wrath of Orion
Member
Wed Apr 08 03:11:39
I take that back - it may be happening in Italy, but I don't have solid numbers to back that up. Regardless, I'm confident it's not taking place to a large degree in many countries.
Seb
Member
Wed Apr 08 03:27:34
Wrath of Orion:

There will be some short term noise, that's true, but most deaths in US and UK are happening in hospitals where little are treated for sars-cov-2 even if they haven't tested positive if they are displaying symptoms. Where people are dying at home, the coroner will mention sars-cov-2 as a likely cause without a diagnostic test.

Lack of testing those who die is going to be a second order effect, the biggest issue is lag: people who die outside a hospital situation take a few days to show up in official stats due to the way deaths are registered.

In the UK at least, the corrected stats show a smoother exponential. This lends confidence that deaths at home are not a significant source of leakage as they dovetail with the hospital figures.
Wrath of Orion
Member
Wed Apr 08 03:43:44
"The FDNY says it responded to 2,192 cases of deaths at home between March 20th and April 5th, or about 130 a day, an almost 400 percent increase from the same time period last year. (In 2019, there were just 453 cardiac arrest calls where a patient died, according to the FDNY.)"

I'd say an extra 100 or so deaths per day is not insignificant. Now, if they're being captured by the new CDC code and that is the data you're using to compare (along with UK's similar data), then OK.

But lag on this has been reported to be on the order of weeks, not days.
sam adams
Member
Wed Apr 08 06:00:25
Seb, thats a lot of bs to write to say "i suck at math, dont understand data, get basics facts wrong, and will still try to defend my clusterfuck of a poor overcrowded shithole of a nation"


"yet in fact US growth rate is faster"

In cases perhaps... because the uks government functionaries are so far behind in testing.

But in deaths it is similar growth rate.

Why are you never right seb?
Seb
Member
Wed Apr 08 06:58:37
WoO:

I'm not familiar with the US but the UK lag is reported on at most a week.

Given the lower testing rate is in the UK, I'm not really convinced that there are huge numbers of deaths that are being miscounted or banked up at this stage in the UK figures.

Sam:
Did I scare you with exponentials again? Feel free to challenge the maths, but you need to do it with actual maths not your normal bluster.

"In cases perhaps"

No, in deaths, as the FT figure plotting both countries stats clearly show.

The UK has started to flatten, the US gradient remains linear. Not only are your deaths per day figure higher, but currently the *increase* in deaths per day are higher.

Can't you read a simple log graph?
Seb
Member
Wed Apr 08 07:00:48
And note those are appropriately normalised figures.


The US is currently doing worst in the developed world at tackling the disease.

Next you will of course start saying that the high death rates are poor, uneducated, black people who deserve to die.
sam adams
Member
Wed Apr 08 10:31:57
"The US is currently doing worst in the developed world at tackling the disease."

Only a high-end retard could look at the data and come to this conclusion.
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