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The current time is Thu Jun 04 22:28:06 2020

Utopia Talk / Politics / November predictions
Habebe
Member
Wed Apr 01 06:35:55
Well after many libs thought that Covid 19/ economy would be Trumps down fall for re election so far they have to wash that egg off there face.

Trumps support is up in almost all polls.

His enthusiasm is up while Bidens is low.

He is still more trusted on economic issues than Biden.

Now nationally in polls Biden has a slight edge.

My prediction? Too far away and too many variables to be certain but I see no reason why Trump couldn't get easily re elected...
Habebe
Member
Wed Apr 01 06:46:15
http://abc...husiasm-poll/story?id=69812092

Indeed, strong enthusiasm for Biden among his supporters – at just 24% – is the lowest on record for a Democratic presidential candidate in 20 years of ABC/Post polls. More than twice as many of Trump’s supporters are highly enthusiastic about supporting him, 53%.

____ Ive been saying this for a while folks, enthusiasm wins elections.
obaminated
Member
Wed Apr 01 06:57:14
trump is going to easily win. average voters love the way he has handled this virus and they trust him. biden has nothing going in his favor. trump is going to go down in the history books as a very successful president.
Habebe
Member
Wed Apr 01 07:02:33
I feel like Biden is hiding put in a bunker or in Dr Dre.'s basement.
jergul
large member
Wed Apr 01 07:02:40
Habebe
I am surprised that you have not choosed orange skin and hair as a vital feature that wins elections.

Two more options.

A national health crisis causes the administration to not have November presidential elections.

Key Governors withdraw from the Union and hold independent elections to elect new heads of state.

==============

Its important to consider all options on the table.
jergul
large member
Wed Apr 01 07:05:02
The bunker thought would actually be true of Trump. He is practicing enhanced social distancing outside of the daily press meeting on Pence's task force briefing.

Biden is at home and is in touch with the public in a fireside chat format.

Dukhat
Member
Wed Apr 01 07:06:51
Look at all these poor white guys so happy that a fucking retard might get re-elected.

Him stealing 1.5 trillion for his rich friends wasn't enough, being incompetent and letting a pandemic we saw months in advance hit the US and kill hundreds of thousands seal the deal for you guys huh?

Fucking idiots.
Habebe
Member
Wed Apr 01 07:08:38
Jergul, So how anymore side chats has he had. Cause outside of meet the press I havmt seen Biden.

Perhaps you want a minute to wash the egg off your face when you thought this crisisnwould be the end all for Trump.
Habebe
Member
Wed Apr 01 07:10:29
"Look at all these poor white guys so happy that a fucking retard might get re-elected."

Is it any worse than a bunch of colored gays being thrilled at the prospect of a pandemic if it meant he wouldn't be re elected?
jergul
large member
Wed Apr 01 07:11:08
Dukhat
1.5 trillion? The deficit this calandar year alone will pass 5 trillion.

No wonder that I hear that key States are thinking of leaving the Union in part to escape the crippling debt.
jergul
large member
Wed Apr 01 07:13:04
Habebe
Its early days and any forecast is uncertain, but it is entirely possible the crisis will end the Union as we know it (I am sure rump States will continue to call themselves the United States under any circumstances - they can be the successor state loaded with the Federal debt).
Dukhat
Member
Wed Apr 01 07:13:21
Anyways, ignoring your retarded attempt to, "get at the libs!"

Trump has the poorest rally-around-the-chief effect of any president ever for what is a national crisis. Almost every other leader in the free world has seen a much larger one.

Bush had an approval bump for Katrina too.

Trump's going to need more a buffer than the upper 40's when the massive job losses and over a hundred thousand americans die.

And the most vulnerable are almost all straight-ticket GOP voters too.
jergul
large member
Wed Apr 01 07:14:05
Its important to leave all options on the table and consider all plausible scenarios.
Habebe
Member
Wed Apr 01 07:14:10
"No wonder that I hear that key States are thinking of leaving the Union in part to escape the crippling debt."_

You hear this because you talk to yourself.
jergul
large member
Wed Apr 01 07:16:04
Not true at all. People have been saying that the crisis will cause key states to leave the Union.
jergul
large member
Wed Apr 01 07:17:41
I am not saying this will happen for sure before November, but it is important to keep the option on the table. We do not know how the crisis will play in full yet.
Habebe
Member
Wed Apr 01 07:23:26
Dukhat, It is true that normally effext is low. However he couldn't get any more Republican support and he is such a hated figure by many democrats ots not surprising he only gained 6% boost from dem voters and 8% from independents.

Now the questions are

1. Can he hold that support? Leaning no bit too early to tell.

2. Can Biden rally enthusiasm? He never has before so I doubt it.

But Trump.could self sabotage, very likley. He also is very skilled at getting put of situations that would be career Ender's for most politicians.

The best card in Trumps hand is that he is running against Biden. When ypur Choices are Caesar or Grandpa simpson, Caesar very well may dissolve the Republic but grandpa simpson inspires no enthusiasm.
Habebe
Member
Wed Apr 01 07:25:14
"Not true at all. People have been saying that the crisis will cause key states to leave the Union."

Jergul, jergulina, Jeff, jurget ... Maybe TC.
Daemon
Member
Wed Apr 01 07:39:28
It's certainly possible that Trump will win again as Biden is a weak candidate. I pity you for it.
Habebe
Member
Wed Apr 01 08:02:17
Daemon, So whats going on with Marble, isnt she supposed to be resigning soon?
jergul
large member
Wed Apr 01 08:08:00
Hababe
What is compelling you to think that Biden will not win Florida?

He who take Rome, takes the Empire. Rome in this case is Florida.

Is it the uptick in Trump voters dying there that has lead you to this counter intuitive position?

================

Are you starting to get how crazy you sound and how crazy your president sounds by my tossing about the same concepts, but directing them at the USA?

That is the key element you seem to be missing. I am mirroring you and your president.
jergul
large member
Wed Apr 01 08:10:00
Ruggy/habebe: The EU is falling apart
Jergul: The US is falling apart

Trump: People have been saying. I have heard.
Jergul: People have been saying. I have heard.

Get it, thicky?
hood
Member
Wed Apr 01 08:13:40
"average voters love the way he has handled this virus and they trust him."

I've said this forever, average = stupid. Anyone who "love[s] the way he has handled this virus" is incredibly retarded. Anyone who "trust[s] him" is incredibly retarded. Of course, there's more than enough retarded people to elect Trump.


"trump is going to go down in the history books as a very successful president."

Not in any measure of presiding success. He had fervent support from cultists. He hasn't done anything noteworthy to help the country.
jergul
large member
Wed Apr 01 08:13:56
10 000 universes, outcomes 2020 presidential elections.

Biden 5 500
Trump 4 000
Something else happens 500

Something else includes there not being elections, or someone else ending up president in 2021.
Habebe
Member
Wed Apr 01 08:27:10
"Is it the uptick in Trump voters dying there that has lead you to this counter intuitive position?"

In how many universes does Trump win NYC and Seattle?
Habebe
Member
Wed Apr 01 08:37:39
As fornthe EU.

1. You dont live in the EU.

2. While I don't see it falling apart entirley comparing it to the US is odd.

The US _ 250 years still intact entirley.

The EU_ 30 years and the UK is out.
jergul
large member
Wed Apr 01 08:38:40
Habebe
The electoral college is at state, not city level.
jergul
large member
Wed Apr 01 08:39:33
Habebe
I do not live in the EU in the same way Puerto Rico is not part of the USA.
jergul
large member
Wed Apr 01 08:41:51
The only reason mirroring you and your president seems odd is because you both are batshit crazy.
Habebe
Member
Wed Apr 01 08:43:08
Ok so how many Trump voters.live in either location? His chances of winning NY or WA are no better or worse.
jergul
large member
Wed Apr 01 08:51:32
Anyone
Can someone please explain habebe how the electoral college works and why battleground states are important.

I will explain *again* why Florida is the decider this election cycle afterwards.
jergul
large member
Wed Apr 01 08:53:15
Batshit crazy is a characterization I have used for years, but it certainly has become more pungent after covid-19.
Wrath of Orion
Member
Wed Apr 01 09:08:23
Erm, I would be extremely cautious when making predictions about how this pandemic will affect election results. The dying hasn't truly begun in the US. When it does over the next month, we'll see what really happens.
Habebe
Member
Wed Apr 01 09:14:52
"Is it the uptick in Trump voters dying there that has lead you to this counter intuitive position"_ the two highest death rates in the US are liberal strong holds, even the elderly are unlikely to be Trump people. That's Bidens base, liberals over 60.
Dukhat
Member
Wed Apr 01 09:26:04
Democrats all took the Coronavirus seriously from the start.

Meanwhile, half of all Republicans continue to think it's a hoax and many churches refuse to cancel services.

The only danger from the Coronavirus is the Republicans using it as an excuse to seize power. We're already seeing Trump doing some of this by denying aid to blue states and favoring red states or red-leaning swing states like Florida.

And then he put the stupid mypillow guy up during a white house briefing too.

Stupid motherfucker can't help himself.
jergul
large member
Wed Apr 01 11:07:31
WoO
I agree. The fun part is actually the State races. Degrees of incompetence are likely to wreak havoc with the traditional incumbent advantage.

The president is supposed to provide leadership, but the covid shots are mostly a state affair.

Habebe
Still not getting how your electoral college works and the role battleground states have?

The elderly are prone to vote GOP. That is particularly true of men.

Trumps margin in Florida was razor thin in 2017.
jergul
large member
Wed Apr 01 11:10:35
2016*
jergul
large member
Wed Apr 01 11:26:49
Biden's relative strength is with white non-college voters over 25. You know, the herd that flipped from Democrat to Trump to some degree in 2016.

One thing you should factor in is that Biden is not Clinton and you are measuring him against her yardstick.

He is simply likely to do better than Clinton - and Clinton almost won.
kargen
Member
Wed Apr 01 16:12:18
"Its important to consider all options on the table."

Those are not options. THey are your idiocy manifesting itself in a forum.
jergul
large member
Wed Apr 01 16:36:46
Kargen
They are options on the table. All options are always on the table with your decision makers.

The fault lines are clear. We seem them in every thread.

The dissolution of union is the draining swamp end game.

You may want to read up on the dissolution of the Soviet Union and avoid their mistakes in the process.

Not the end outcome. Citizens everywhere are happier for it, though you should avoid in a way that gives us this century's catastroph (to paraphrase Putin).

What State do you think should be the successor state and get the UN seat, the nukes (most of them anyway) and the federal debt?
jergul
large member
Wed Apr 01 16:42:25
The permanent UNSC seat*
Habebe
Member
Wed Apr 01 17:48:37
"Biden's relative strength is with white non-college voters over 25"_ cite?

"One thing you should factor in is that Biden is not Clinton and you are measuring him against her yardstick.

He is simply likely to do better than Clinton - and Clinton almost won."

1. I did not measure him agaimst her yardstick.

2. He isn't necessarily going to do better.

A.He is much less hated, no one really hates Biden, putty maybe, not hate.

B.Like I said before about Pence, Biden has little to no enthusiasm. Almost 75% of his supporters think he is kind of ok/meh.
Habebe
Member
Wed Apr 01 17:48:37
"Biden's relative strength is with white non-college voters over 25"_ cite?

"One thing you should factor in is that Biden is not Clinton and you are measuring him against her yardstick.

He is simply likely to do better than Clinton - and Clinton almost won."

1. I did not measure him agaimst her yardstick.

2. He isn't necessarily going to do better.

A.He is much less hated, no one really hates Biden, putty maybe, not hate.

B.Like I said before about Pence, Biden has little to no enthusiasm. Almost 75% of his supporters think he is kind of ok/meh.
Habebe
Member
Wed Apr 01 17:48:37
"Biden's relative strength is with white non-college voters over 25"_ cite?

"One thing you should factor in is that Biden is not Clinton and you are measuring him against her yardstick.

He is simply likely to do better than Clinton - and Clinton almost won."

1. I did not measure him agaimst her yardstick.

2. He isn't necessarily going to do better.

A.He is much less hated, no one really hates Biden, putty maybe, not hate.

B.Like I said before about Pence, Biden has little to no enthusiasm. Almost 75% of his supporters think he is kind of ok/meh.
jergul
large member
Wed Apr 01 17:52:33
Habebe
Exit polls. Biden does very well with that group.

You should measure him against the Clinton yardstick.

He does not have her negatives.

People are very enthusiastic about beating Trump. And Biden is the way to do that.

But its still all about Florida where Biden polls well.
sam adams
Member
Wed Apr 01 21:28:03
"Democrats all took the Coronavirus seriously from the start."

Lol no. Democrats were focussed 90% on their primary, 8% on waaa waycism against chinese, and 2% on the actual viral threat.

That might be better than trumps random idiocy, but lets not pretend the dems as a whole knew anything.
Dukhat
Member
Wed Apr 01 22:01:42
Dems would've responded months faster. As soon as we had community spread, we should've fucking spent billions in mass testing and locking down hotspots.

The weeks (Months?) trump wasted cost tens of thousands of American lives. Let's not pretend any other president including Republicans would've acted way faster than the fat piece of shit Trump did.

He continued playing golf and talking about the stock market. The fucking idiot.
Dukhat
Member
Wed Apr 01 22:02:38
Trump using his press briefings to talk about some unrelated campaign against Maduro. Aiming for the Venezula vote and Florida already. Everything is political with this guy; his press conferences are fucking impromptu campaign rallies.
kargen
Member
Wed Apr 01 22:43:30
"They are options on the table. All options are always on the table with your decision makers."

No they are not. Your Soviet comparison isn't going to fly. The history lesson you suggested to me would go a long way to clearing up the differences for you.
jergul
large member
Thu Apr 02 04:15:35
Kargen
All options are always on the table. What did you think the drain the swamp's logical conclusion is?

Don't look for the differences. Look for the similarities. Hint: Wholesale prices of eggs are up 150%.

Its like printing money and giving it away causes inflation or something.
jergul
large member
Thu Apr 02 04:16:22
180% if the wholesale price was 1 dollar, it is now 2.80.
Habebe
Member
Thu Apr 02 05:02:55
Dukhat, "Dems would've responded months faster"

If that were the case then why are all of these Democratic strongholds now ground zero for the virus?

Now I understand that cities inherently will catch and spread it quicker. More pop. Density, mpre travel etc.

But if they would have acted so rapidly to prevent it at the federal level, why not at the state and city level.
jergul
large member
Thu Apr 02 05:06:34
Habebe
That lesson has been learned. No point waiting for Federal directions on anything really.

What is the point with the Federal Government again?

None that anyone can see.

#Swampdissolution
Habebe
Member
Thu Apr 02 12:25:28
1. Defense
2. Infrastructure.
3. Inter state issues.
4. Foreign policy.
5. Currency
6. Trolling China.
jergul
large member
Thu Apr 02 13:16:40
A model UN for the States? lol.
Hrothgar
Member
Sun Apr 05 10:58:01
My prediction is Trump will attempt to delay the election by a year due to "circumstances".
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