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Utopia Talk / Politics / WAT USA NEVR CAN DO!
Wed Apr 01 16:14:02



This is what China did to beat coronavirus. Experts say America couldn't handle it

Apr 1, 2020

In late February as coronavirus infections mounted in Wuhan, China, authorities went door-to-door for health checks – forcibly isolating every resident in makeshift hospitals and temporary quarantine shelters, even separating parents from young children who displayed symptoms of COVID-19, no matter how seemingly mild.

Caretakers at the city's ubiquitous large apartment buildings were pressed into service as ad hoc security guards, monitoring the temperatures of all residents, deciding who could come in and implementing inspections of delivered food and medicines.

Outside, drones hovered above streets, yelling at people to get inside and scolding them for not wearing face masks, while elsewhere in China facial-recognition software, linked to a mandatory phone app that color-coded people based on their contagion risk, decided who could enter shopping malls, subways, cafes and other public spaces.

"We couldn't go outside under any circumstances. Not even if you have a pet," said Wang Jingjun, 27, a graduate student who returned to Wuhan from the Chinese coastal province of Guangdong, which borders Hong Kong and Macau, in mid-January to live with her elderly mother and grandparents. "Those with dogs had to play with them inside and teach them to use the bathroom in a certain spot."

As the epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic has moved to the USA, Chinese officials and public health experts insist that even if President Donald Trump were to immediately adopt all the strict testing and lockdown measures that Western scientific advisers advocate, these actions would still not be sufficient to stem the spread of a disease that is swiftly approaching a million worldwide cases.

More severe steps are needed in the USA, these officials say, although they cast doubt on whether Americans could do what the Chinese did, for a mixture of reasons: political will and deep-rooted cultural inclinations among them.

To help quell its outbreak, Beijing embarked on one of the largest mass mobilization efforts in history, closing all schools, forcing millions of people inside, quickly building more than a dozen vast temporary hospitals, deploying thousands of extra medical staff to Wuhan and the surrounding Hubei province and meticulously testing and tracing anyone and everyone who may have encountered the virus.

It did a lot more than that.

"Lockdowns, bans on gatherings, basic quarantines, testing, hand-washing, this is not enough," Huiyao Wang, a senior adviser to China's government, told USA TODAY in a phone interview from Beijing. "You need to isolate people on an enormous scale, in stadiums, big exhibition halls, wherever you can. It seems extreme. It works.

" 'No one left behind' was the slogan in Wuhan," he said. "No one."

In the USA, Trump urged Americans to avoid gatherings of 10 or more people and suggested the worst-affected states should shutter schools, bars and restaurants.

Overall, he has left it to individual states and cities to decide whether to close businesses or explicitly order people to stay at home, despite evidence from countries in Asia, such as China, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan, that aggressively limiting public gatherings and social interactions can help stop transmission of COVID-19, when done in combination with extensive testing and tracing of the disease.

Fact check: Can Trump use the Stafford Act to order a mandatory 2-week quarantine?

Trump said he expects to see U.S. cases peak "around Easter," although his claims about how quickly the USA can overcome the outbreak and bounce back contradict assessments from top health officials, such as Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

After New York City became the new locus of the outbreak, Trump announced Sunday an extension of federal guidance on social distancing measures through April and issued a "strong travel advisory" urging residents of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut to refrain from nonessential travel for 14 days to help limit the spread of the virus.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said the new restrictions would help slow the spread of the respiratory illness, which has infected more than 190,000 Americans and killed more than 4,000. The daily death toll in the USA may not dip below 100 per day before June, according to a study by the University of Washington.

Wang, the Chinese government adviser, said the example of Wuhan, where authorities have started lifting some of their stringent anti-virus controls that kept tens of millions of people at home for two months, illustrates that the USA and West more generally need to take far more radical virus-dampening actions that many people outside China might find culturally, logistically and emotionally unpalatable.

"It was not just families being isolated together in Wuhan but individuals being isolated away from their friends and families," said Andy Mok, a fellow at the Center for China and Globalization, a public policy think tank based in Beijing.

"China's response to the outbreak was truly a nationwide response: systematic, comprehensive and coordinated. This is why China was able to 'flatten the curve' so dramatically," he said, referring to social isolation measures aimed at keeping the number of coronavirus infections at a manageable level for hospitals and medical workers who would otherwise be overwhelmed with sick patients.

Mok said that even in Beijing, about 750 miles north of Wuhan, coronavirus rules were established requiring residents to have a formal pass to get in and out of their apartment buildings and homes. At the outbreak's height in Wuhan, nobody was allowed in or out of the city, and access to food stores was limited to once every few days.

Video footage published by the Australian Broadcasting Corp., the country's state-funded broadcaster, showed Chinese authorities in Wuhan welding doors to entire apartment buildings shut – with residents inside – to enforce quarantines. The footage, collected from Chinese social media users, could not be independently verified by USA TODAY.

Mok questioned whether Americans, raised on a diet of individualism and civil liberties that has informed every aspect of life from travel to economic institutions, would be willing to abide by invasive virus detection and containment methods that require a strong commitment to "collectivism" and abridged freedoms.

Europe has adopted some, but not all, of China’s most restrictive steps. In France, residents must fill out of a signed attestation to justify leaving their homes or apartments. Police hand out large fines to anyone who doesn’t follow the rules.

"It's a very clever form of social engineering for civic purposes: It forces you to think about and justify to yourself, as well as to the world, why you are leaving the house," said Sarah Maza, a French history professor and U.S. citizen living in France for the year.

Yang Junchao, a member of a Chinese delegation of COVID-19 doctors and medical experts assisting Italy in halting its coronavirus infections – the worst in Europe – said its epidemic will be controlled "as long as the Italian public cooperates."

Some American public health officials have acknowledged that to bring the virus under control – outside of a vaccine breakthrough – actions that overstep the bounds of what most Americans would be comfortable with, such as mass quarantines and other severe restrictions on movement, may be necessary.

"The approach we should be taking right now is one that most people would find to be too drastic because otherwise, it is not drastic enough," Francis Collins, the director of the National Institutes of Health, said in a USA TODAY interview.

"It may be a country like China has a more top-down ability to insist on certain behavior changes. But we ought to be able to do it in our way, in a bottom-up fashion," he said.

Though China's official figures show that transmission of the coronavirus has all but ended in most of the country's regions, unverified reports and online photos circulate suggesting that China's death toll, primarily in Wuhan, could be far higher than the 3,312 figure published by China's National Health Commission.

The Beijing-based Caixin newspaper reported March 27 significantly elevated official cremation rates in Wuhan, possibly indicating a more substantial death figure, though the report acknowledges the increases were inconclusive. It is not clear how extensively China has counted asymptomatic cases, though it is tracking them.

Trump administration officials have repeatedly condemned China's initial suppression of warnings about the outbreak and questioned the accuracy of Beijing's infection figures.

China's central government has dismissed persistent allegations that it tried to downplay the severity of infections, although it has not denied initially detaining whistleblowing doctors and citizen journalists in December who tried to speak out about the mysterious virus in Wuhan. China's National Health Commission said Tuesday it will start including asymptomatic coronavirus carriers in its daily figures.

As of Wednesday, China recorded less than half – about 82,000 – the number of U.S. coronavirus cases. It may be bracing for a potential second wave of infections: Over the past few days, China has reclosed some public spaces and businesses, such as movie theaters, amid spiking clusters of cases, mostly imported.

"The Chinese are trying to paint the narrative that the model they have pursued has been a huge success and that we are failing" because of our mode of governance, J. Stephen Morrison, director of the Global Health Policy Center at the Center for Strategic and International Affairs (CSIS), a Washington think tank, said in a media briefing.

Morrison said there's significant evidence that the Chinese government’s handling of the crisis sparked "widespread discontent and dissatisfaction," pointing to the case of Dr. Li Wenliang, who was detained when he tried to alert other health care providers about the novel coronavirus. He died from the virus.

Concern has grown over the whereabouts of Ai Fen, the head of Emergency at Wuhan Central Hospital. She is the doctor who first alerted Wenliang about the spread of the virus. An Australian investigation team that interviewed Fen last week said she has disappeared, possibly detained by the Chinese government.

Jan Renders, 29, a graduate student who was studying Chinese politics at Central China Normal University in Wuhan and was airlifted out Feb. 1 to his home in Belgium, said the Chinese response was "too harsh" and lacked transparency.

"In Wuhan, when everything went into lockdown, nobody could come or go, and that included patients. The hospitals were overloaded, and I’m sure people died because they couldn’t be transported to other hospitals, where there was room," he said, noting that German hospitals started taking coronavirus patients from overcrowded hospitals in Italy, where more than 12,400 people have died of COVID-19, the most anywhere.

Edward Tse, the Hong Kong-based founder of the Gao Feng Advisory Co., a management consultancy with roots in mainland China, said his perception is that, on the whole, most people in China supported the government's tough measures, including systematically isolating and quarantining carriers of the virus, even if they were from the same family or had a very mild or only suspected coronavirus infection.

"Isolation is the key," he said. "It just depends on how you do it. The Chinese government decided to do it in a certain way. It turned out to be quite effective."

A British video blogger posted a video on China's Twitter-like Weibo platform last week that explained how China implemented the softer side of its policy of "ling jiechu," which translates as "zero contact." It allowed neighborhood committees to take charge of arrangements for shopping and deliveries. Highways were made toll-free, with no limits to the number of cars on a road. For those without a car, customized bus routes were set up and operated according to demand. Tickets could be purchased on a smartphone app, and capacity was set at 50%. Many restaurants installed basic but effective pulley systems to maintain employee-customer distance.

Wang, the student who returned to Wuhan from Guangdong to live with her elderly relatives, said many people in China "have the idea, and maybe it’s a stereotype, that medical care" in the USA and Europe is more advanced than in China.

"I am worried about places like New York City and Milan," she said. "I don’t know why the deaths are so much higher there. I hope they will be strong and keep calm."
Cherub Cow
Thu Apr 02 06:37:25
The particularly important bits from above:

"Though China's official figures show that transmission of the coronavirus has all but ended in most of the country's regions, unverified reports and online photos circulate suggesting that China's death toll, primarily in Wuhan, could be far higher than the 3,312 figure published by China's National Health Commission.

"The Beijing-based Caixin newspaper reported March 27 significantly elevated official cremation rates in Wuhan, possibly indicating a more substantial death figure, though the report acknowledges the increases were inconclusive. It is not clear how extensively China has counted asymptomatic cases, though it is tracking them."

So, to bring things up to speed on China..
• China has been hiding cremation figures; i.e., hiding the death count ("Stacks of thousands of urns outside funeral homes in Hubei province have driven public doubt in Beijing’s reporting."; Bloomberg; April 1st, 2020; "China Concealed Extent of Virus Outbreak, U.S. Intelligence Says", http://www...utbreak-u-s-intelligence-says)
• China has not been reporting (or has been under-reporting) asymptomatic patients who tested positive — at least until this week
• China has been blocking or silencing whistle-blowers (Dr. Ai Fen, whistle-blower, "disappeared" or was detained (unofficial); Dr. Mei Zhongming, who reported SARS-like-symptoms in patients who frequented a fish market in December, warned students, was "denounced by authorities for “rumormongering”," and died of coronavirus in February; NYPost; April 1st, 2020; http://nypost.com/2020/04/01/whistleblowing-coronavirus-doctor-mysteriously-vanishes/ )
• China has begun expelling journalists and denying journalists' paper renewals (N.Y. Times; March 17th, 2020; "China Announces That It Will Expel American Journalists" http://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/business/media/china-expels-american-journalists.html )
• CIA reports (from last week) that China has been intentionally concealing total infected and deaths (Bloomberg; "The thrust [of the report] ... is that China’s public reporting on cases and deaths is intentionally incomplete. Two of the officials said the report concludes that China’s numbers are fake.")
• "Vice President Mike Pence [presumed to have read the above report] said Wednesday on CNN. “What appears evident now is that long before the world learned in December that China was dealing with this, and maybe as much as a month earlier than that, that the outbreak was real in China."
• "“The claim that the United States has more coronavirus deaths than China is false,” Senator Ben Sasse, a Nebraska Republican, said ... “Without commenting on any classified information, this much is painfully obvious: The Chinese Communist Party has lied, is lying, and will continue to lie about coronavirus to protect the regime.”" (Bloomberg)
• Italy's data further reveals that China under-reported its data; that under-reporting influenced world response and preparation policy (Bloomberg)
• "China isn’t the only country with suspect public reporting. Western officials have pointed to Iran, Russia, Indonesia and especially North Korea, which has not reported a single case of the disease, as probable under-counts. Others including Saudi Arabia and Egypt may also be playing down their numbers." (Bloomberg)

Aside, there seems to be a lot of overlap between countries with "flawed democracies" or "authoritarian" government and under-reporting standards. Countries ranking low on the "Democracy Index" may have a particular motivation to under-report.
large member
Thu Apr 02 06:45:47
Everyone is underraporting. What % of corpses at US county morgues are tested for covid-19 by the mortician?

My guess would be 0%.

large member
Thu Apr 02 06:49:55
It is ultimately really hard to get around the fact that China did use clinical diagnosis to inflate its number of confirmed covid-19 cases.

That is an extra 25k infected that render Chinese statistics incompatible with any other country.

It does have a significant impact on mortality statistics. The Chinese death rate as a % of confirmed infected is lower than it would be if it had systematically used confirmed tests only.
Cherub Cow
Thu Apr 02 07:09:44
[Jergul]: "Everyone is underraporting. What % of corpses at US county morgues are tested for covid-19 by the mortician? [/] My guess would be 0%. "

To your question: your guess would be correct. And why? Because *morticians* do not test for cause of death — pathologists or field-related medical examiners do. You would know that if you had any idea what you were talking about. You have yet again shown that you live out of your depth any time you speak on the bio-sciences.

If we pretend that Jergul knew the difference between a mortician and a medical examiner and had correctly said "medical examiner":

More unsupported statements from Jergul. Whataboutisms, deflections, and false comparisons. The U.S. and Italy have been definitively better at reporting than China, Iran, Russia, Indonesia, North Korea, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and — yes — India. To debate otherwise is dishonest, unsupported by facts, and a position so absurdly untenable that I will not waste more words than this.
large member
Thu Apr 02 08:45:17
I have a very firm idea of what I am talking about.

A pandemic is not the time go anal retentive CC. We have talked about this before.

Post mortem screening for covid is not done anywhere, not in China, not in the US, not in Germany, not anywhere.

There is currently a 10 day backlog on test results in the US. That is not doing better than anyone really.

For the actual toll. Wait until 2021 and see how mortality increased in 2020 compared to 2019.

Then you can compare the relative merits of various systems and gauge the degrees of crappiness to numbers reported.

The numbers are otherwise irredemably fucked up everywhere. This is not whataboutism. This if fact.
Cherub Cow
Thu Apr 02 10:04:48
Jergul gets called out for making yet another mistake of elementary understanding which reveals his non-expertise and proceeds to call it being “anal retentive”. You have no fucking clue, Jergul, and your outright lies and falsifications have no strength against stated and *sourced* facts. Just shut up, and stop wasting peoples’ time with your spam.
large member
Thu Apr 02 10:20:21
CC: Waaah
Jergul: Get a grip. The minutae of naming conventions is not interesting and you fixating on it is a discredit to your at times interesting observations.

I feel the above is a fair representation of our discussion.
Cherub Cow
Fri Apr 03 06:41:33
Of course you think it’s “fair” — you have no comprehension of your own failures.
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