Utopia Talk / Politics / Who will be on top on May 1

Im better then you 2012 UP Football Champ	Thu Apr 02 01:07:09 as of April 1 reported deaths according to wiki 1 Italy 13,155 2 Spain 9,387 3 United States 5,133 4 France 4,025 5 China 3,312 6 Iran 3,036 7 United Kingdom 2,352 8 Netherlands 1,173 9 Germany 931 10 Belgium 828 11 Switzerland 488 I think it will be close Italy and Spain both have an elderly population but US a large fat population with retard leading it. US will be number one in fatalities by May is my bold prediction.
Paramount Member	Thu Apr 02 01:17:42 Yes the US will probably be on top in a month or so. But South Africa and Brazil may get worse because. I’m also interested in Russia’s numbers. They are probably top 10 already but are covering it up(?) Don’t know why they would want to hide their numbers though.
Paramount Member	Thu Apr 02 01:19:48 * erase the ”because”
Dukhat Member	Thu Apr 02 01:49:48 South Africa and Brazil will simply stop reporting. I expect Bolsonero to go nuclear.
jergul large member	Thu Apr 02 04:45:14 USA will be top in 12 days according to current doubling rates of fatalities.
Habebe Member	Thu Apr 02 05:14:34 Gross numbers or per capita? Gross? US Per capita? Maybe still the US but probably Spain or Italy.
sam adams Member	Thu Apr 02 09:17:16 Wildcard. India!
sam adams Member	Thu Apr 02 09:18:52 In terms of per capita it will definitely be the retarded euros.
Rugian Member	Thu Apr 02 09:26:50 China will on both cases and deaths, although the formal statistics won't say as much.
jergul large member	Thu Apr 02 09:30:20 ^Raving lunatic
Dakyron Member	Thu Apr 02 11:29:57 China already has like 40K+ dead from coronavirus, so China.
jergul large member	Thu Apr 02 12:04:03 Daky We will do the tally on excess deaths in 2020 in 2021 mkay? The only corona dead anyone is tallying is from people with confirmed covid-19 infections who die. Otherwise the discussion boils down to how many sad old men died alone in 1-bedroom suits in various countries. And any speculation goes.
Dakyron Member	Thu Apr 02 12:08:09 Or officially fudged numbers from an authoritarian regime.
jergul large member	Thu Apr 02 12:24:35 Daky Unlikely. Not due to honesty, but mucking with the census fundamentals have all kinds of negative effects. The data for 2020 should be robust in China. Remember that 40 000 people die a day in China to all other causes. There is no point hiding a relatively small number, then run into all kinds of planned economy difficulty because the Hubei data is wrong. Its not really a regime problem anyway. Local authorities have their own agendas. Its not as if all US States are being particularly diligent of tracking down possible covid-19 infections. If that is not done, then the covid dead will not register either.
Habebe Member	Thu Apr 02 12:33:08 Jergul, I think dakyrons point hinged on the Chinese knowing the real numbers thus planned economy problems are not really problems. Its likely that gdp figures pre covid were inflated about 20% for example.They are notorious for fudging numbers. To the point of US numbers not being accurate, Well yes late testing and othwr issues make the data incomplete ATM.
jergul large member	Thu Apr 02 13:26:41 Habebe 100ds of thousands of technocrats rely on accurate census data. Its CT nuttery to think China will try to cook their books on dead in 2020. People dying now from covid-19 will never be registered as covid-19 dead in the States. The only good way to do this now is by looking at how many people died in various countries in retrospect. Its sort of a silly discussion to have. 10 000 here or there will soon amount to rounding errors. Tis the nature of exponential growth. It seems important now, but it will not be when US fatalities pass 100k.
Forwyn Member	Thu Apr 02 13:27:32 EU is all-in together, until it's advantageous to be listed individually. lol
jergul large member	Thu Apr 02 13:32:57 Oh, you want EU dead to compare with US dead? I had to think through that one for a moment. I agree. Eurostat should be compiling that number.
Habebe Member	Thu Apr 02 13:39:03 http://www...rus-deaths-development-europe/ 33,577 dead in Europe.
Habebe Member	Thu Apr 02 13:55:30 http://www...dwide-per-million-inhabitants/ Per capita the US is a little worse off than Germany, not much though.
sam adams Member	Fri Apr 03 06:37:43 "EU is all-in together, until it's advantageous to be listed individually." Correct
sam adams Member	Fri Apr 03 06:47:43 As the uk and much of europen governments fail utterly, seb has been noticeably been absent.
Nekran Member	Fri Apr 03 06:49:42 "EU is all-in together, until it's advantageous to be listed individually." Advantageous because... the EU cares about this little forum treating a pandemic as some sort of competition? Obviously if you want to make a comparison in the end, the US compares to the EU rather than to a single EU member state. But if someone compiles a list of countries, the EU will obviously not be on that list.
jergul large member	Fri Apr 03 06:56:02 Sammy I dunno. The NHS Nightengale is pretty impressive.
Hrothgar Member	Sun Apr 05 10:58:56 I think India will be. They have SO many impoverished people who will not be able to get medical care. Millions.
Daemon Member	Sun Apr 05 11:23:35 India has found a way to stop the infection: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmdakEjFjOU
Pillz Member	Sun Apr 05 11:37:59 India won't be reporting deaths from corona. Or maybe they'll just attribute all the dead to it. But of countries we can trust, US will obviously take the prize here.
sam adams Member	Sun Apr 05 12:14:56 Agree with pilz. NYC alone might win the prize.
jergul large member	Sun Apr 05 17:20:16 NYC is testing at 3 times the national average (15k/1mill pop, nationally the average is 5k). The national average is the same as Russia's btw. I have no idea why you think you can trust US data. Way too many HRs with previous conditions hiding away and dying in their 1 bedroom apartments. They will end up in the morgues eventually of course, but they will not be buried with a covid-19 diagnosis.
sam adams Member	Sun Apr 05 17:29:17 Ahhh and there goes jergul with his russian propaganda again. Like a bum with his meth. Just cant lay off.
Habebe Member	Sun Apr 05 17:31:22 Montana is doing the most testing per capita I belive
jergul large member	Sun Apr 05 19:22:09 Sammy I meant that extremely negatively. As in you suck as bad as Russia.
jergul large member	Sun Apr 05 19:24:21 Habebe No. New York is doing best by far. http://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Im better then you 2012 UP Football Champ	Sun May 03 17:21:51 yup looks like we have more deaths than the top 5 countries combined.
Pillz Member	Sun May 03 19:25:26 How do you figure that? Italy, Spain and the UK combined have almost 20k more deaths than you.
Hrothgar Member	Sun May 03 21:48:59 I declare Jergul the winner of this predictive thread. Trump's USA leadership lead to too slow of reaction to the risk and an anti-authoritarian populace doesn't help as full lock down impossible along with distrust of news/information sources. The Brazil mention by Paramount was a good call and may be off by a month. I still think the disease is probably rampaging through the Indian slums unreported by little caring upper class mentality. China has the authoritarian and compliant population to actually lock down enough to halt it, and I believe them when they say they have.
Habebe Member	Mon May 04 03:49:59 http://www...dwide-per-million-inhabitants/ Belgium got.hit way harder than I thought.
jergul large member	Mon May 04 04:12:00 Belgium is way better at counting than you thought you mean.
Nekran Member	Mon May 04 06:56:44 Yeah, I'm pretty sure it'll turn out we counted too many deaths next year. Though there is a lot of criticism that the response in the nursing homes was both tardy and lacking and that quite some death could've' been avoided there. Probably true.
jergul large member	Mon May 04 08:45:24 I am pretty sure you did. Seasonal flu victims were undoubtably classified as covid-19 in Belgium. One good thing about covid-19 is that measures are transferrable to countering seasonal flu. We may see a permanent decrease in flu transmission as basic precautions become the new normal.
sam adams Member	Mon May 04 10:55:20 "How do you figure that?" Jergul and seb math, apparently.
sam adams Member	Mon May 04 11:03:15 "Yeah, I'm pretty sure it'll turn out we counted too many deaths next year." Possibly. More likely yours are in the right ballpark and most other western nations are undercounting a little. The "excess deaths" metric will likely be the most useful in hindsight, as the medical industry continues to fail their great test. Not all the excess deaths are corona directly... many will be old folks finished off by the stress and disruption.
Nekran Member	Mon May 04 11:08:34 I do assume most countries are undercounting as well, yes. But we're counting pretty much every death in nursing homes as a Covid death unless there is a clear different cause of death.
jergul large member	Mon May 04 11:11:03 excess deaths are negative in Norway. Covid-19 restrictions dovetailed with the end of our flu season, so with that, and other stuff, we have net lower mortality so far. That will likely change come october, but for now things are looking good. For the US? Lack of immigration is hitting you hardest. People are the core driver of gdp growth. It matters.
The Children Member	Mon May 04 11:54:58 MURICA WON! Hahaha suck it
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