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Utopia Talk / Politics / Corona XXII
Pillz
Member
Thu May 07 09:48:47
Will we catch up to the super bowl?
Dakyron
Member
Thu May 07 09:57:25
"You didn't get a big cluster there, and Arizona has thus got to where other places need to get.

But if the whole US left lockdown, pretty sure you'd get a nice cluster there eventually from infected people from New York or wherever.

Coordination doesn't mean uniformity btw."

This despite waves and waves of people descending here due to MLB spring training right as the virus started becoming widespread in the US. I live a few miles from the spring training home of the Seattle Mariners.


"If there's conclusive proof, why does the median profession overwhelmingly disagree?"

They don't, but they continue to push a super cautious narrative because they are doctors who see the world only from the perspective of a physician.

"Or you just had a cold."

*I* did not have any symptoms, only my immediate family members and their co-workers/fellow students. Anecdotal evidence points towards COVID, but yes, it might have been a cold.

"Neither of those is true of the UK, tourism is a big thing for London, and the biggest is er... services."

You are hopelessly stupid if you think London is overly reliant on tourism.

"But if you have a decent furlough system you can suspend those sectors, centralise and mutualise the costs and kick it off into govt debt to pay off like ww2 debt over half a century."

Many states have constitutional requirements for a balanced budget. Arizona is one of those.

jergul
large member
Thu May 07 10:29:17
Daky
I have to ask. What R is acceptable to you (3 seems max unless you put special effort into spreading covid-19)?

I incidentally don't get why tracing is not on the agenda. Low skilled, very labour intensive and very likely with high socio-economic benefit.

A new deal could start with that.
Dakyron
Member
Thu May 07 10:40:16
jergul - Response should be based on the local situation. Places like NYC with high population density are much different than desert suburbs of Phoenix, Arizona.
jergul
large member
Thu May 07 11:18:07
Daky
I agree with that, but the goal would be for R to remain under 1 anywhere, with various degrees of intervention required.

But the overall assumption for that to work would be low mobility between each "local situation".

I am not trying to trick you, a person's view on R is simply shorthand for how much intervention there should be. 0.7 = Full lockdown. 3 = business as usual.
Jebbebiah Wilkins
Member
Thu May 07 11:58:01
What are they hiding from us?

http://www...ed-joining-us-military-1502445

Coronavirus Survivors 'Permanently Disqualified' from Joining U.S. Military, Recruitment Memo Suggests
Dakyron
Member
Thu May 07 12:05:23
jergul - Anywhere that shows a NYC level of contamination should be under a stay at home order for 5 weeks.

Anywhere should be business as usual with the exception of gatherings over 100 people.
jergul
large member
Thu May 07 14:16:37
Daky
Bring R to 0.7 when R is above 2.1

That gives sinus curve cycles.


Pillz
Member
Thu May 07 14:47:48
http://mon...trueAnthem&utm_source=facebook
sam adams
Member
Thu May 07 20:43:44
"sinus curve"

Ah yess, the famed sinus wave. Lol jergul math strikes again.
Wrath of Orion
Member
Thu May 07 20:49:35
"Anywhere should be business as usual with the exception of gatherings over 100 people."

Derp.
jergul
large member
Fri May 08 02:58:32
Sammy
See, this is how we know you do not have an engineering degree.

I do not mean that in a bad way, engineers are just glorified technicians. But they do like processes to be as flatlined as possible.

Sinus curves are very bad.

This is not jergulmath. This is process control 101.
smart dude
Member
Fri May 08 03:08:22
Don't know if jergul is trolling now or not. Probably not, sadly.
jergul
large member
Fri May 08 03:38:57
SD
What I do is not a binary thing.

Covid-19 management now is a regulating problem. Its not only relevant to apply process control theory, it is the best to apply process control theory.

If you do not understand this, then there are many things you do not understand and I cannot help you.
Seb
Member
Fri May 08 05:21:03
Dakyron:

You might want to read up on London's economy. I said it's a big thing, it's actually the most visited city on the world with 18.8m visitors a year and over 350k jobs in London depend on tourism. In relative tend, it's not not *overly* reliant - it's about 10% of the London economy, but being shut down over spring and summer is going to hit the local economy hard.

Non professional services (so stuff that can't happen wfh) and retail are a huge huge chunk - London has the highest non food retail sales by value of any city in the world. That huge shift to online ordering will have a huge hit on high end stores (coupled with decline in global visits, think rich Chinese coming to Harrods pre wedding and paying swanky high end photographers to take their wedding photos in front of the red telephone boxes on Whitehall).

So yeah, the financial services will keep on going - though they'll take a hit from decline in global activities - the reality is the mechanisms by which that would be distributed across the economy are all suspended. Retail, restaurants, services, office spaces... all shut down. And the reality is that what sustains most of the real economy of London.

Seb
Member
Fri May 08 05:22:37
Dakyron:

"Many states have constitutional requirements for a balanced budget. Arizona is one of those."

Like I said, a dumb policy choice. It's still a choice. This is why I don't like written constitutions. People bake policy choices into them and then find themselves locked into dumb policies that don't fit the circumstances.
sam adams
Member
Fri May 08 10:05:14
Lol jergul the words you are looking for are "sine waves"

Sinus is cavities in your head.

Lolololol
Dakyron
Member
Fri May 08 10:35:18
https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=Most+visited+city+in+the+world

Very first result:
Thailand's capital of Bangkok was named the most visited city in the world, according to MasterCard.

"Like I said, a dumb policy choice. It's still a choice. This is why I don't like written constitutions. People bake policy choices into them and then find themselves locked into dumb policies that don't fit the circumstances. "


Uhh... no. Balanced budget requirements are the only thing keeping states from declaring bankruptcy every 15 years.
jergul
large member
Fri May 08 11:15:14
Sammy
Shrug. Its not actually something that should have been lost in translation. Germanic languages use sinus and curve.
Wrath of Orion
Member
Fri May 08 11:15:48
Yeah, sinus is also used a shortening of sinusoidal.
sam adams
Member
Fri May 08 12:30:06
Yes jergul, i knew what you meant. Its still funny that someone so frequently bad at math does that.
jergul
large member
Fri May 08 12:51:27
Too bad gaslighting is not actually a science Sammy. You are quite good at it.
jergul
large member
Fri May 08 12:52:43
Also, I have been skiing 23 times (ty fitbit for keeping track) since I last bragged of it. As recently as 3 hours ago :D.
jergul
large member
Fri May 08 12:54:19
http://weather.cs.uit.no/

White stuff!
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Fri May 08 13:05:57
Is there any farming at all at your lats?
Seb
Member
Fri May 08 13:44:36
Dakyron:

Apparently bancock has knocked is off number one in recent years.

It turns out london is currently number 5.

The difference completely ruins my point and demonstrates that tourism is completely irrelevant to the London economy.
Seb
Member
Fri May 08 13:45:20
"Balanced budget requirements are the only thing keeping states from declaring bankruptcy every 15 years"

Really.
Seb
Member
Fri May 08 13:47:34
You think if states declared bankruptcy every five years, they might simply just not have anyone lend to them?

You are just making the case that the problem here isn't fundamental economics, just American governance looking like something out of the developing world.

That's ultimately a political choice, because it's not a consequence of an immature institutional framework.
jergul
large member
Fri May 08 14:29:54
Nimi
Yepp. There is still quite an impressive number of daylight hours until mid september.
smart dude
Member
Fri May 08 19:39:01
"All words with similar etymologies are interchangeable."

-WoO
-jergul
Wrath of Orion
Member
Sat May 09 02:23:17
Oh boy, another derp post.
smart dude
Member
Sat May 09 03:20:53
I'm not the one who used the wrong word and tried to use the word's etymology to defend my use of it. Which is exactly what jergul did. "I don't know the right word b-b-but here's some proof that I'm real smaht."
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Sat May 09 03:27:54
The salient point was that everyone understood what was being said, we all moved on, but now you believe you have found another angle because apparently this is very important.
jergul
large member
Sat May 09 04:16:24
SD
Shrug. I don't vet my posts for transliterations. I regulary post Norwegian terms and expressions I have literally translated to English instead of using whatever English equivalent that might exist.

You would not think it a big deal if you had been at the very least bilingual.

You do know that most foreigners here are fluent in at least 2 languages, right?
Seb
Member
Sat May 09 05:01:41
I've known several German colleagues (as in, physics researchers) say sinus wave for sin or sine.

I assume it's either a faux Latinisation or some kind of Germanic colloquial contraction of sinusoidal.

Either way, it's obvious what Jergul meant and quite childish to focus on what may be as simple as an autocorrect sanfu.
Seb
Member
Sat May 09 05:08:52
Smart Dude:

Jergul is Norwegian. Norwegian is a Germanic root and probably has a bunch of loan words or takes Germanic stylings for terminology as a result.

He's not claiming all words with common etymology is the same. He's saying it's a common usage were he's from and maybe hadn't appreciated that some of the more parochial and uniformed aren't aware it can be used as such. Those of us that work out have worked technically and internationally aren't likely to be floored by this. We've either encountered it before or can easily see what it refers to. Amazingly international conferences aren't full of people arguing over the correct way to refer to the sine function.



jergul
large member
Sat May 09 05:46:58
Sammy
Feel free to post something. I will respond presently, but will be afk skiing for a couple hours.

:D
jergul
large member
Sat May 09 08:19:47
Back! :D
smart dude
Member
Sat May 09 08:50:14
"You do know that most foreigners here are fluent in at least 2 languages, right?"

Keep digging. In like 15 posts you had the opportunity to say "oops I was wrong. English isn't my first language," but you have refused to simply admit it. Instead all I've heard is excuses. Something, something Germanic languages. (English is a Germanic language too btw).

And now let's pull out our cocks and talk about how many languages we know. Derpa derpa foreigners here are fluent blah blah blah. Whatever dick-measuring contest you think you are in, IDGAF. I speak more than one language too. Your point?
jergul
large member
Sat May 09 09:08:59
SD
You are a confirmed moron.

It took about 5 posts to even know what sammy was talking about. Your fixation is very uhealthy.

Grade 12 Spanish does not amount to fluency btw.

Seb
English - Language of trade
French - Language of diplomacy
German - Language of Science

It took two world wars to change that. If anything, English is the odd man out. Sine and Cosine sound assinine.
chuck
Member
Sat May 09 09:17:05
I've heard sinus before. I don't remember the context exactly, except that it was old. Maybe a 1950s textbook or SAT?

Wiki says[1] that sinus is the Latin translation used for the Arabic transliteration of the original Sanskrit word which meant chord. Sine as an English term came into use later.

> Etymologically, the word sine derives from the Sanskrit word for chord, jiva*(jya being its more popular synonym). This was transliterated in Arabic as jiba جيب, which however is meaningless in that language and abbreviated jb جب . Since Arabic is written without short vowels, "jb" was interpreted as the word jaib جيب, which means "bosom". When the Arabic texts were translated in the 12th century into Latin by Gerard of Cremona, he used the Latin equivalent for "bosom", sinus (which means "bosom" or "bay" or "fold").Gerard was probably not the first scholar to use this translation; Robert of Chester appears to have preceded him and there is evidence of even earlier usage. The English form sine was introduced in the 1590s.

[1]: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sine#Etymology
jergul
large member
Sat May 09 09:17:33
Oh and for the answer to your query. I would not claim fluency in more than 3 languages today, but my transcripts show grade 12 or better attainment in a total of 6 languages.

That would be 10 inches in dick terms I think.
Wrath of Orion
Member
Sat May 09 09:31:53
lmfao@sd

Just keep digging yourself a deeper hole, retard.

I've worked with academic colleagues that use sinus. It's a cultural thing from certain areas.
Daemon
Member
Sat May 09 11:32:49
Yeah Sinuskurve is a German word. Though we also use the word Sinuswelle (welle=wave) for example when talking about acoustics.
sam adams
Member
Sat May 09 13:21:44
"I will respond presently, but will be afk skiing for a couple hours."

Nice! Today is the second day of the first big heatwave of the spring on top of plenty of new snow that fell recently so i suspect the high slopes are in a murderous avalanche mood right now.

So its mountain biking today!
Paramount
Member
Sat May 09 13:30:14
Doctors in Hong Kong, China, have tested a drug combination on covid-19 patients that has proven to be very effective. Patients recovered twice as fast as the control group.

http://www...S0140-6736(20)31042-4/fulltext

^ Of course, this is The Lancet, and Americans does not believe in either The Lancet or China, so they will ignore this.

So how is it going with Trump’s covid-19 cure? Is it finished soon?
smart dude
Member
Sat May 09 13:43:16
"It's a cultural thing from certain areas."

Yeah. That "cultural thing" is called language.
jergul
large member
Sat May 09 14:57:30
SD
Chose your battles.

I do not have very many fans in this forum. When people say you are wrong about some trollish something or another in regards to me, then just drop it.

Bide your time. I will post something outragous within a few days that can trigger you with popular support.
Fred Phelps
Member
Sun May 10 03:50:17
God hates fags!

http://www...-cases-linked-2020-5?r=DE&IR=T


The LGBTQ community in South Korea fears a rise in discrimination after a reported new spike in coronavirus cases was linked to a man who attended night clubs in Seoul's gay district and later tested positive for the disease.

As of Saturday, May 9, South Korea confirmed 18 new coronavirus cases — the first time in five days that the number jumped above 10. Most of the cases originated in the popular Itaewon district in Seoul, where a 29-year-old man visited three nightclubs before testing positive for the virus.

The man tested positive for COVID-19 on Thursday, May 7, while an additional 14 people with who he had contact were also infected on Friday.

The 29-year-old could have also infected an estimated 2,000 people after he also walked around Seoul and other neighboring provinces, including Gyeonggi and Gangwon, the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) said
Daemon
Member
Sun May 10 11:43:58
Ah it has started

http://www...ures-in-bishan-ang-mo-kio-park

Robot reminds visitors of safe distancing measures in Bishan-Ang Mo Kio Park

SINGAPORE - A four-legged robot will be patrolling Bishan-Ang Mo Kio Park to remind people of safe distancing measures starting from Friday (May 8).

Called Spot, the robot will assist with safe distancing efforts at parks, gardens and nature reserves managed by National Parks Board (NParks) and at parks managed by town councils.

The pilot trial is jointly conducted by NParks, and the Smart Nation and Digital Government Group (SNDGG).

The Spot robot will broadcast a recorded message reminding park visitors to observe safe distancing measures.

It is fitted with cameras, enabled by GovTech-developed video analytics, to help it estimate the number of visitors in the parks.

The cameras, however, will not be able to track or recognise specific individuals, neither will it collect any personal data.

As part of the two-week trial, Spot will be deployed over a 3km stretch in the River Plains section of the park during off-peak hours, and it will be accompanied by at least one NParks officer.

If the trial proves successful, NParks will consider deploying Spot for safe distancing efforts at Bishan-Ang Mo Kio Park in the morning and during evening peak-hours.

NParks is also looking into deploying the robot at other parks such as Jurong Lake Gardens.

Originally developed by American company Boston Dynamics, the four-legged robot is able to navigate obstacles more effectively compared to wheeled robots, making it suitable for different terrains.

It is also fitted with safety sensors to detect objects and people within 1m to avoid collision.


GovTech has enhanced Spot with various functions such as remote control, 3D-mapping and semi-autonomous operations to facilitate the trial.

It is currently looking to develop analytics allowing Spot to check if park visitors are observing safe distancing measures.


As it is controlled remotely, less manpower is needed for park patrols, helping to minimise physical contact among staff, safe distancing ambassadors and park visitors. This helps to lower their risk of exposure to the Covid-19 virus.


NParks is also deploying 30 drones to detect visitorship at selected parks and nature areas.

In addition, the Safe Distance At Parks portal lets the public find parks near them, as well as check the crowd situation at the parks before making their way there.

The Spot robot is also currently on trial at the Changi Exhibition Centre community isolation facility, which houses patients with mild symptoms, to help deliver essential items such as medicine to patients.



The SNDGG will also be exploring the use of the robot in supporting other Covid-19-related operations across agencies.

Last month, an autonomous robot known as O-R3 was deployed at Bedok Reservoir Park by national water agency PUB as a kind of safe distancing ambassador.



The four-wheeled robot was originally used for surveillance, but it now broadcasts safe distancing messages at the park as it patrols the area in the mornings and the evenings when human traffic is at its highest.

Similar robots will be deployed at Pandan and MacRitchie reservoirs.
Paramount
Member
Mon May 11 15:43:05
Has Trump Decided We Will Follow Sweden and Just Not Told Us?

Having a pandemic is really bad. Having a pandemic and a civil war together is really, really bad. Welcome to Donald Trump’s America 2020.

If you feel dizzy from watching Trump signal left — issuing guidelines for how states should properly emerge from pandemic lockdowns — while turning right — urging people to liberate their states from lockdowns, ignore his own guidelines and even dispute the value of testing — you’re not alone.
Since Trump’s pronouncements are simultaneously convoluted, contradictory and dishonest, here’s my guess at what he is saying:

“The Greatest Generation preserved American liberty and capitalism by taking Omaha Beach in Normandy on D-Day — in the face of a barrage of Nazi shelling that could and did kill many of them. I am calling on our generation to preserve American liberty and capitalism today by going shopping in the malls of Omaha, Nebraska, in the face of a coronavirus pandemic that will likely only kill 1 percent of you, if you do get infected. So be brave — get back to work and take back your old life.”

Yes, if you total up all of Trump’s recent words and deeds, he is saying to the American people: between the two basic models for dealing with the pandemic in the world — China’s rigorous top-down, test, track, trace and quarantine model — while waiting for a vaccine to provide herd immunity — and Sweden’s more bottom up, protect-the-most-vulnerable-and-let-the-rest-get-back-to-work-and-get-the-infection-and-develop-natural-herd-immunity model, your president has decided for Sweden’s approach.

He just hasn’t told the country or his coronavirus task force or maybe even himself.

But this is the only conclusion you can draw from all the ways Trump has backed off from his own government guidelines and backed up his end-the-lockdown followers, who, like most of the country, have grown both weary of the guidelines and desperate to get back to work and paychecks.

But, in keeping with my D-Day analogy, Trump has basically decided to dispatch Americans into this battle against this coronavirus without the equivalent of maps, armor, helmets, guns or any coordinated strategy to minimize their casualty count. He’s also dispatching them without national leadership — so it’s every platoon, or state, for themselves, maximizing the chances of virus spread between people who want to go shopping and those who still want to shelter in place.

He’s also dispatching them without a national plan to protect the most vulnerable, particularly the elderly, and without setting the example that everyone should wear face masks and practice social distancing whenever they are at work or in a public setting. Finally, he’s dispatching them without a plan of retreat if way too many vulnerable people are infected and harmed as we take to the malls of Omaha and beyond.

Other than all that, Trump is just like F.D.R.

I fear that when these shortcomings become apparent, it could trigger a low-grade civil war between those who will ask their neighbors: “Who gave you the right to ignore the guidelines of the Centers for Disease Control and heedlessly go to a bar, work or restaurant and then spread coronavirus to someone’s grandparents or your own?” And those who will ask their neighbors: “Who gave you the right to keep the economy closed in a pandemic and trigger mass unemployment, which could cost many more lives than are saved, especially when alternative strategies, like Sweden’s, might work?”

A new Mason-Dixon line could emerge between those states led by governors who want to equip their people with the maximum protective gear and safety guidelines and those governors who are keen to reopen their states for business as usual — gear and guidelines be damned.

According to a new poll from Pew Research Center, more than two-thirds of Americans worry that their respective states are reopening too quickly, while pro-Trump protesters have taken to the streets to demand that businesses get people back to work now.

So, I can imagine the possibility of the governor of Maryland, who has been very careful about lifting lockdowns, banning cars coming north on Interstate 95 with Georgia license plates. And this is not just my imagination.

South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem “sent letters Friday to the leaders of both the Oglala Sioux Tribe and the Cheyenne River Sioux Tribe demanding that checkpoints designed to prevent the spread of coronavirus on tribal land be removed” — or risk legal action, CNN.com reported Saturday. The Cheyenne River Sioux Tribe has rejected the ultimatum. Stay tuned.

The tragedy of all of this is that a better president would never have allowed us to get to this edge of pandemic civil strife.
A real president would be simultaneously framing the issues for the nation and then arguing for and guiding us on the least painful course. He’d start by explaining that we are up against a challenge no one in our generation has ever faced — the challenge of a global pandemic in which Mother Nature is silently, invisibly, exponentially and mercilessly spreading a coronavirus among us.

And, unlike a human foe, you can’t defeat Mother Nature, negotiate with her or spin her. All you can do is adapt in the least harmful way possible to whatever she throws at you. And when it’s a pandemic, it means there are only hellish moral and economic trade-offs — no matter which path you choose. Too closed, she’ll kill your jobs. Too open, she’ll kill your vulnerable.

The job of leadership is to choose the path that offers the most sustainable way to balance lives and livelihoods and then create and stick to the conditions that make it workable.

So, as I said, China has chosen the pathway of locking down and then opening its economy, but with strict social distancing, masks everywhere and highly intrusive testing, tracking, tracing and quarantining anyone with coronavirus to prevent further spread — while it waits for a vaccine to create herd immunity.

Sweden has chosen moderate social distancing, keeping a lot of its economy open, while trying to protect the most vulnerable and letting those least vulnerable — those most likely to experience coronavirus either asymptomatically or as a mild or tough flu — continue to work, get the virus and develop immunity to it. Then, when enough of them are immune, they can sound the all-clear for the vulnerable. That’s Sweden’s strategy, but it is too early to say it’s the right answer.

If you listened to Trump last week you heard a president who was all over the place. One day he talked as though he wanted to follow Sweden in getting a lot of people back to work, even if many more will get infected by coronavirus. Another day, he boasted that we’re testing just like China — only more so. Another day he disputed the need for testing at all.

In brief: Trump talks like China, envies Sweden, prepares for neither and insists that his strategy is superior to both.

But the fact is he is not prepared to impose the kind of strict surveillance tracing and quarantining system that makes China’s reopening work. And he is not ready to consider strategies — like moving vulnerable people living in crowded homes to empty hotels or surrounding every nursing home with a public health testing units — that might make a Swedish-style opening less dangerous.

So, I fear that we are heading for a roiling mess. Our coronavirus infections will be exacerbated by Trump’s incompetence, while our hyper-political partisanship will be fed by his malevolence. After all, his whole political strategy is to divide us into red and blue, Republicans and Democrats, open-now advocates and go-slow advocates. That’s the only politics he practices.

In sum, Covid-19 is sapping our economic and physical health, while Trump is undermining our institutions and national unity. We desperately need a vaccine — and a 2020 election outcome — that can give us herd immunity to this virus and this president.

http://www.../trump-sweden-coronavirus.html
sam adams
Member
Mon May 11 20:44:32
NIH director hopeful we get a vaccine by winter.
sam adams
Member
Mon May 11 20:56:22
Meanwhile the cdc should be disbanded and everyone their should lose their jobs and pensions.

The leaders should fall on their swords or be forced to watch soccer for the rest of their lives.

Those assholes get 6 billion a year and the one time they are tested they fail utterly.

Meanwhile the NWS gets less money and pretty much nails the forecast for every storm.

The FAA has a budget just a few times more and airline safety has improved so much in the last 30 years it almost seems like magic...by many orders of magnitude.

By the standards of these contemporary agencies, the failure of the CDC is so complete we might as well call them sebs.
Seb
Member
Tue May 12 02:28:10
If you don't appoint senior leaders to an organisation, it will tend to be ineffective.

Weather forecasting is somewhat easier than coordinating pandemic response. You need nerds, data, and a big computer (dumbing it down to Sam level).

Pandemic response requires coordinating broadly a rapid response both internationally and across numerous domestic organisations public and private.

CDC has performed admirably in the past.

You let trump in, with his "get rid of the bureaucrats" approach. You may not like him Sam, but hey, he's following your policy of stealth disbanding the bureaucracy by not filling posts. You'd is the result.
www.yeswecansong.com
Member
Tue May 12 03:08:40
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YZgbNBQTlCw&feature=emb_logo

http://trumpdeathclock.com/
Sam Adams
Member
Tue May 12 09:36:44
Plenty of bureaucrats at the FAA and NWS coordinating shit and not fucking up seb. The CDC just sucks. They failed at the coordination and they failed at the science.

like you.
Seb
Member
Tue May 12 09:58:24
Sam, you realise your increasing attempts to personalise your govts shitty policies as somehow emblematic of me just looks very silly? Particularly when those policies they have adopted are precisely to appeal to people with *your* views.

FAA is doing a great job is it? Thy incorrectly approved the 737 in part due to increasing reliance on supplier self certification due to under-resourcing. Trump didn't appoint senior officials there either, and as a direct result most of the world's major aviation agencies lost any trust with the FAA and grounded the 737.

This is what happens when you decide all state institutions are worthless bureaucracy, that nothing the state does can deliver value as an axiomatic point of principle, hollow them out, and let them become captured by the oligopolys they are supposed to regulate.

Trump isn't doing this because he's incompetent. He's deliberately not appointing roles to try and appeal to people like you. And that is what makes him incompetent.
sam adams
Member
Tue May 12 10:06:50
Trump is an idiot that wants too little government.

You are an idiot that wants too much government.

Both are true.

But note big governments and small governments are failing with corona. There is an additional failure of medical science here in addition to your governmental bungling.
Dakyron
Member
Tue May 12 10:21:43
"Trump is an idiot that wants too little government.

You are an idiot that wants too much government.

Both are true."

Correct.

"But note big governments and small governments are failing with corona. There is an additional failure of medical science here in addition to your governmental bungling. "

Its clear the worst case scenarios that the medical community articulated early never had a chance of happening. Predictions of 3-4 million dead in the US, even with the bungling and incompetence, is never going to happen. Its just not that deadly to healthy people.
Daemon
Member
Tue May 12 10:41:05
Corona in Wuhan is not yet over:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-52629213

Coronavirus: Wuhan draws up plans to test all 11 million residents

7 hours ago


The Chinese city of Wuhan is drawing up plans to test its entire population of 11 million people for Covid-19, state media report.

The plan appears to be in its early stages, with all districts in Wuhan told to submit details as to how testing could be done within 10 days.

It comes after Wuhan, where the virus first emerged, recorded six new cases over the weekend.

Prior to this, it had seen no new cases at all since 3 April.

Wuhan, which was in strict lockdown for 11 weeks, began re-opening on 8 April.

For a while it seemed like life was getting back to normal as schools re-opened, businesses slowly emerged and public transport resumed operations. But the emergence of a cluster of cases - all from the same residential compound - has now threatened the move back to normalcy.

'The ten-day-battle'

According to report by The Paper, quoting a widely circulated internal document, every district in the city has been told to draw up a 10-day testing plan by noon on Tuesday.
[...]


Seb
Member
Tue May 12 10:43:50
Sam:


What particular and specific elements of govt is it that you think are too much?

Big govt and little govt are failing, but that's not the same as pointing out that the CDC and indeed the FAA (which you think has been doing a good job) were deliberately targeted for cuts and disruption.

You say Trump wants too little govt, yet your rhetoric is always for less govt and the worthlessness of "bureaucracy".

He's appealing to you Sam. He's giving you what you have always said you wanted.

And even as those vital institutions fail, what's your answer? Is it "No, you idiot, you went too far"?

No. It's that you should disband the CDC completely because it's worthless.

Not fix it, not make it work. Disband it. Because government is baaadmkay.

Seb
Member
Tue May 12 10:57:12
Dakyron, I don't know where the 4m comes from, but if it is "this is what happens if there is no mitigation", then it's not obviously crazy.

There are over 69m people in the US over 60. Death rate of 3.6% for those 60-69, 8% for 70-79 (those based on reports from well tested countries, so not inflated due to under testing of asymptomatics).

So average rate of 5.8%, 70m, if everyone over 60 got it, you'd get to 4m.

Obviously you need to adjust downwards for some realistic fraction (say 80%) but you also need to account for 0.5% of 30-60 year olds, adjust for pop health (obesity, diabetes etc higher in the US than the countries the best stats come from), and consider whether the healthcare system becomes overwhelmed.

But ultimately, if you are just saying "even an incompetent response would avoid 4m", you are ignoring the fact that the 4m almost certainly was based on no response to highlight the need for a response.

"Everyone who said if I stepped out the plane I'd fall to my death is stupid, obviously I'd wear a parachute, anyway, my rate of descent has slowed, so it's safe to take off my parachute" - Dakyron

sam adams
Member
Tue May 12 11:11:35
"You say Trump wants too little govt, yet your rhetoric is always for less govt and the worthlessness of "bureaucracy"."

You see it that way because you are stupid and always want more government. Thus everything, to you, is "not enough government".
sam adams
Member
Tue May 12 11:13:23
"It's that you should disband the CDC completely because it's worthless."

The current occupants of the CDC have failed so badly they should all be fired.

That organization can start over new.
Dakyron
Member
Tue May 12 12:27:14
Seb - early estimates were based on 10%+ fatality rate. It is now obvious that was overstated. Overall death rate is like 0.5% at most, which means if the entire US population got COVID-19, there would be 1.75M dead. Realistically, 1M dead is probably the ceiling if the US did absolutely nothing.

Although, even 1M is probably an overestimate. Something like 10% of the population gets seasonal flu each year(roughly 35M).

Which yields 175,000 dead. Which would make it about three times as bad as a bad flu season. Is that bad enough to warrant the complete and utter obliteration of our economy?

I honestly don't know, but I do know that as we learn more about the virus, its becoming clear that humanity dodged a bullet. If COVID-19 had a MERS level fatality rate or even an Ebola level fatality rate while being spread like the flu, then the bungling incompetence of the world would have resulted in a 21st century version of the black death.

Ebola kills 25% of its patients in a best case scenario. Which would have meant something like 17M deaths in the US and like 2M deaths in the UK.
sam adams
Member
Tue May 12 12:57:19
Spread to all US citizens, it should kill about 1.5 million people. The bulk of these deaths would be the old and infirm, with just a few years of life remaining.

So... thats worth about 5 million people-years... killed by allowing mass spread.

However... if the lockdown fucks over the entire population of the country for a year... thats 300 million people-years. Not dead but degraded significantly. If we figure the value of lockdown time is two thirds normal time.. 100 million people years would be wasted by a yearlong lockdown.

Thus a lockdown lasting a year would clearly do more harm than the virus.
Seb
Member
Tue May 12 15:58:37
Sam:

I've absolutely no idea how you've formed that opinion, it's not actually based on anything I've said, just the phantoms in your mind.
Sam Adams
Member
Tue May 12 16:05:19
^seb with the trump-level "I didn't say that".

again.
Sam Adams
Member
Tue May 12 16:05:44
Who lies more about their previous statements, trump or seb?
Seb
Member
Tue May 12 16:32:23
Dakyron:

How do you reach that conclusion of 0.5%?

For example, this paper

http://www.medrxiv.org › co...PDF
An empirical estimate of the infection fatality rate of COVID-19 from ... - medRxiv


finds infection rate mortality in Italy of 1.29%, over-60 infection fatality ratio is 4·25% and for over-80 it is estimated at 9·04%.

Just taking the over 60 element, given US demographics that would be in the 3-4m ball park if everyone got the disease.

This Lancet paper:

http://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext

Has 0.66% overall in mainland China (so, you know, probably worse than that of you think they've been fiddling the figures).

But mainland China is a younger and more healthy population.

Again, demographics show a different story:
Over 60 4.38% irf
Over 70 7.8% irf

Again, crudely, that's in the 4m ball park when you apply to US population.

So it really depends where you are getting this 0.5% figure from.


Dukhat
Member
Tue May 12 16:54:25
This napkin math is incredibly painful to read. It's just bad.

Sars-Cov-2 is still several times deadlier for all age groups than the flu even if it isn't as bad as initially thought (Case Fatality Rate of over 2% in Wuhan). It is also way more infectious than the flu. And it is also way, way more deadly for old people than the flu.

And Dak and Sam's napkin analysis ignores the fact that the fatality rate goes way up if hospitals are inundated with patients. Many survivors only survive because they get access to ventilators and respiratory help. And then there's all the non-covid-19-related procedures that are being delayed or ignored too because of dealing with the pandemic.

We already have models of what to do from other countries that dealt with the pandemic. Hell, we should have fucking been following them and watching them in the first place. Germany is the closest country we could've easily emulated but Trump fucked up our response completely.

Contain the initial outbreak and open up the economy again when there is enough testing. Slowly decrease social distancing measures and take necessary precautions to prevent outbreaks.

Ideally, we could've just squashed the entire thing to begin with like Hong Kong and Singapore and Vietnam have done. They can reopen more aggressively than us.

But we're stuck fucking managing a slow re-opening because of all the dumbfuck carriers out there because Westerners have so many arrogant fucks like Elon Musk.
Pillz
Member
Tue May 12 17:49:50
Business as usual, except for air travel, by August.
Seb
Member
Tue May 12 18:30:21
I don't think any of its disagree with that pillz. It's just how you get there, and avoid trying business as usual from July, getting a second spike and end back in lockdown by August.
Seb
Member
Tue May 12 18:32:57
Sam:

Show me where I've said I always want more government. I can think of several points where I've suggested less actually.

Who lies most is easy Sam, everyone knows it's you. What started as hyperbole even up being a complete disregard to objective reality.

sam adams
Member
Tue May 12 20:18:39
"I can think of several points where I've suggested less actually."

Several/7000 = ~0
hood
Member
Tue May 12 22:26:36
"Meanwhile the cdc should be disbanded and everyone their should lose their jobs and pensions."

Uh, Trump started doing this a year or two ago. That's why we're in this shit.
Seb
Member
Wed May 13 04:15:30
Sam:

The problem is, most of you guys here are insane and always want a smaller state.

Cf. "Disband the CDC".

You have sample bias.
Seb
Member
Wed May 13 04:18:01
Hood:

Yup. Congress had to intervene to refund it, but trump still made sure that senior appts not filled etc.

CDC "failed" on ebola according to Republican dogma, so obviously must be destroyed (pace Sam).
Daemon
Member
Wed May 13 04:56:45
Shit never ends:

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1187855.shtml

A city in Northeast China's Jilin Province has declared wartime control mode in its fight against COVID-19 after an infected laundrywoman spread the virus to 11 others, unsettling locals as it was just recovering from the epidemic.
[...]
In the wake of the infections, Shulan imposed lockdown in local communities and villages from Saturday. Exits and entrances are being guarded by designated people, leaving only one door for local residents to enter. Only one family member is allowed to purchase daily necessities each day.
[...]
The infection chain originated from a 45-year-old female who worked as a laundry worker at a local public security bureau. The virus has now spread to her husband, her three sisters and some other family members, according to the local health authority on Sunday.

However, the source of infection of the laundrywoman remains a mystery, as she had no recent travel or exposure history, alarming locals and netizens over whether the virus has found a new way of spreading. An epidemiological investigation is ongoing.
Sam Adams
Member
Wed May 13 12:02:48
"The problem is, most of you guys here are insane and always want a smaller state."

Well the state we have now is too big, so ya we want it shrunk.

Obviously there are some government outfits that do well and are necessary.

But nuance and moderation are beyond your far-left and retarded mind.
Dakyron
Member
Wed May 13 12:26:43
"The problem is, most of you guys here are insane and always want a smaller state. "

The problem is that outsiders do not understand the separation of powers in the USA. The federal government has a list of powers, with the rest being reserved for the states. Despite this, the federal government has for decades been stealing away state's rights.

Often, believing the fed has too much power or is too big is not a case of believing in too much government, but in too much of a centralized government trying to impose rules on 50 very different and diverse states.
Seb
Member
Wed May 13 12:41:59
Nuance like "disband the CDC"?

Dakyron:

No, I understand separation of powers and states Vs federal rights.

This is not a particularly exceptional situation. Cf. EU membership and any other federal state in the world. Even the UK has equivalent issues since devolution. In any case issues like these can be resolved by a process we call "politics", whereby the federal govt would seek to engage with states to chart a way forward. Or argue that on some elements on, e.g. consistent rules on travel via inter-state commerce.

Either way, the critique in this instance is on policy, and not process. If your processes don't let you achieve the right policy, then probably your processes need re-evaluation.
Daemon
Member
Wed May 13 15:09:32
Learning the hard way

http://www...er-tells-pence-in-leaked-call/

Some protesters who descended on the Michigan state capitol to demand the state reopen the economy in spite of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic have spread infections in rural areas where they live, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer told Vice President Mike Pence in a recorded phone conversation obtained by ABC News.

Whitmer, a Democrat, asked Pence to discourage the demonstrations after the state's data suggested the protesters brought COVID-19 back to their rural communities.
(...)
sam adams
Member
Wed May 13 17:12:27
"Nuance like "disband the CDC"?

You missed the "and then remake it"

Thanks for illustrating my point.
CrownRoyal
Member
Wed May 13 17:46:26
"Some protesters who descended on the Michigan state capitol to demand the state reopen the economy in spite of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic have spread infections in rural areas where they live"


That was freedom they were spreading, not infection
Seb
Member
Wed May 13 18:15:39
Sam:

You had to be heavily prompted to say "and remake it", and in any case that's an absurd idea. Particularly when it's very clear that the main problem with the CDC (which has been highly effective in the past and a recognised world leader) is Trumpian sabotage.
sam adams
Member
Thu May 14 09:40:50
"You had to be heavily prompted to say "and remake it"

Ya, 1 whole post. Real heavy. Dumbass. This is especially rich coming from the guy that took 4 months to learn what a median was.
sam adams
Member
Thu May 14 09:43:23
Also libs redirect funding to social justice whining, and dilute talent by forcing affirmative action hired, then cry and pretend its only trumps fault.
sam adams
Member
Thu May 14 09:45:17
But in general i think its more scientific than political: theres lots of countries with lots of various political flavors and everyone sucks:

Modern medical science isnt as advanced as it should be.
Paramount
Member
Fri May 15 16:11:16
Trump announced he would appoint Moncef Slaoui, the former head of GSK Vaccines, and four star army general Gustave Perna, to lead "Operation Warp Speed."

"My administration is providing roughly $10 billion to support a medical research effort without parallel," the president said, comparing the effort with the Manhattan Project during World War 2 that led to the development of nuclear weapons.

Trump added that when a vaccine was ready the military would be enlisted to distribute it.

- -

I hope Trump means that United States Space Force will distribute it, and not the regular US Army?
Pillz
Member
Fri May 15 16:12:52
Drop vaccine bombs from orbit!
Average Ameriacn
Member
Fri May 15 16:20:09
Vaccine will be ready before next election, Trump wins!
Paramount
Member
Fri May 15 16:20:30
” Operation Warp Speed”

So what if China comes up a with vaccine before the US does? What speed would that be? Spore Drive Speed? China Speed?
Pillz
Member
Fri May 15 17:04:22
If we get leftists scared enough of corona viruses and stuff, maybe theyll let us sanitize China with B-52s
Average Ameriacn
Member
Fri May 15 17:09:12
How to speed up vaccine development:
test it on 5000 wetbacks for a green card.
Seb
Member
Fri May 15 18:07:03
Sam, the CDC was widely regarded as a leading organisation in the global response to SARS and Ebola.

Trump gutted it to appeal to people like you. Because you are always saying you want a smaller state, and he wants you to vote for him.

So obviously, rather than accept your rhetoric is actually not what you want, of course it makes sense to blame all the affirmative action that must have happened to hollowed out the CDC since it was an effective, world leading organisation.

I guess under the Trump admin, given that's when the effectiveness declined.

Trump admin being well known for it's diversity hires.

You are hilarious Sam.
Seb
Member
Fri May 15 18:13:03
Oh look. Sam thinks the problem is that the science "isn't as advanced as it should be". Ignoring the fact that the US is standout worst in the world, and there are countries like South Korea that have gone from a major outbreak to near eradication (so it's clearly bullshit, the US has just been massively incompetent), what is this "not advanced as it should be" based on, exactly?

You remind me of one of my friends mother who once wanted to know why we hadn't focused all our efforts on developing a "star gate or a warp engine".

It's a pity Sam, that you didn't go into medical science. You really like it. You really get it. Maybe you had a super genius uncle at MIT, and inherited his genes. Every one of the doctors say "how do you know so much about this?". Maybe you have a natural ability.
sam adams
Member
Fri May 15 20:15:56
"Ignoring the fact that the US is standout worst in the world"

Seb keeps saying this while most of the eu, including the uk, have much higher death rates.

Lol dumbass.
sam adams
Member
Fri May 15 20:16:23
Seriously... why are you always wrong?
sam adams
Member
Fri May 15 20:26:27
The funny part is the UK tries really hard and still is worse off. Lol retards. The US gave up weeks ago and still is doing better than you. Lol what a sad sad result for you.
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