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Utopia Talk / Politics / Corona 23
Tue May 19 11:30:46
(Let's use Arabic numerals in the title)

Corona makes Muslim population rise:


Coronavirus baby boom: Indonesia expects 420,000 more babies
Tuesday, 19 May 2020

Indonesia could see a baby boom due to coronavirus confinement measures that limit access to contraception, its national family planning agency said on Tuesday.

The country could see up to 420,000 more babies born than expected, according to calculations by Indonesia’s Family Planning and Population Service (BKKBN).

Small clinics have closed and doctors see far fewer patients since the country implemented confinement measures to contain the new coronavirus (Covid-19) outbreak. As a result, access to contraceptives and family planning consultations have become more difficult, the agency said.

“Many people obey government directives and stay in their homes except in emergencies. And I guess for many, contraception is not considered an emergency,” explained Hasto Wardoyo, the head of the BKKBN.

The service estimates that about 10% of the country’s population no longer has access to birth control.

Indonesia is the third-most affected country in South-East Asia by the coronavirus, according to the World Health Organisation (WHO), counting 17,514 confirmed cases and 1,148 deaths.
sam adams
Tue May 19 14:38:24
Future british citizens
Tue May 19 16:32:38
Seb's people
Thu May 21 03:48:56

Top HIV scientist says he wouldn't count on a vaccine for coronavirus soon

2 Min Read

(Reuters) - A top U.S. scientist said on Wednesday that governments should not count on a successful vaccine against COVID-19 being developed anytime soon when deciding whether to ease restrictions imposed to curb the pandemic.

William Haseltine, a groundbreaking researcher of cancer, HIV/AIDS and human genome projects, said the better approach now is to manage the disease through careful tracing of infections and strict isolation measures whenever it starts spreading.

While a COVID-19 vaccine could be developed, he said, “I wouldn’t count on it.”

Vaccines developed previously for other types of coronavirus had failed to protect mucous membranes in the nose where the virus typically enters the body, he said.

Even without an effective treatment or vaccine, the virus can be controlled by identifying infections, finding people who have been exposed and isolating them, he said. He urged people to wear masks, wash hands, clean surfaces and keep a distance.

He said China and some other Asian countries used that strategy successfully, while the United States and other countries did not do enough to “forcibly isolate” all who were exposed to the virus.

China, South Korea and Taiwan have done the best at curbing infections, he said, while the United States, Russia and Brazil have done the worst.

Tests on animals of experimental COVID-19 vaccines had been able to reduce the viral load in organs like lungs although the infections remained, he said.

For treatment, patients have been getting antibody-rich plasma donated by people who recovered from COVID-19, and drugmakers are at work producing refined and concentrated versions of that serum.

Known as hyperimmune globulin, those products are “where the first real treatments are going to be,” he said, predicting success also with research into monoclonal antibodies that home in on and neutralize the ability of the virus to enter human cells.
Thu May 21 05:34:03
I have heard now that the fastest vaccine ever created was against measles or mumps I forget and it took 4 years. So 12-18 seems optimistic. On the other hand there has never been a global incentive like we have now to create a vaccine.
Thu May 21 08:42:55
Used to be BRICS, now what, BRIUS?

"There are now more than 5 million cases of coronavirus around the world, with a record 106,000 new cases recorded in the last 24 hours, the World Health Organization says.

WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said two-thirds of the new cases came from just four countries — the US, Russia, Brazil and India."
Thu May 21 09:14:57
So the majority of cases are occurring in four of the world's ten most populous countries? Wow!
Thu May 21 09:18:56
Not that its surprising that we have a large number of cases, since a significant part of the country seems determined to chalk up every single death that occurs as a Covid case:

"Colorado health officials claimed drunk man died of coronavirus when his blood-alcohol content was seven times the legal limit"


If I was a bit more cynical, I'd say that Democrats are trying to inflate the numbers as much as possible in order to damage Trump in November. Good thing I'm not.
Thu May 21 09:25:07
I had my covid 19 antibody titer drawn Monday.
Thu May 21 10:16:39
Still no sign that countries are establishing dual health care systems to isolate corona virus for the most part.

It seems they really do think people will isolate for years.
Thu May 21 11:00:48
"So the majority of cases are occurring in four of the world's ten most populous countries? Wow!"

BRICS was not a derogatary term, neither is my BRIUS, no reason to immediately get confronational.
sam adams
Thu May 21 11:28:00
"WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus"

Is that the one china controls?
Thu May 21 11:43:09
Thu May 21 16:29:25
If it literally is going to take four years to develop a vaccine, and even then it might not be possible, we need, as a collective society, to just let the virus spread and then get on with life.

Between WWI and the Spanish flu, like 3% of the world's population was killed in just a few years.

If the entire world got COVID-19(100% of them), something like 1% of the world population would be dead. 3% would be like 130M people killed.

Sat May 23 05:17:41
For what did they pray?


Several church members infected: "difficult situation" in Frankfurt

10:51 a.m.

After a service in a Baptist congregation in Frankfurt am Main, several members were infected with the corona virus. "We have canceled all meetings. Worship services are now only available online," said Vladimir Pritzkau, vice-president of the association of the Evangelical Christian Baptist congregation. "It's a difficult situation for us."

The service was held on 10 May. Pritzkau was unable to name the exact number of people affected. Most are at home, six in hospitals. It is also unclear how many people attended the service. But "all rules were obeyed".

Religious meetings are allowed again since May 1st, under certain conditions. In churches and other places of worship, for example, the minimum distance of 1.50 meters between people must be maintained, and additional hygiene measures such as the placement of disinfectant dispensers are also necessary.
Cherub Cow
Sat May 23 08:14:05
"we need, as a collective society, to just let the virus spread and then get on with life."

*"Get on with [Death]."
Sat May 23 08:19:59
Rugian using anecdotes like usual. And Dakyron repeating far-right talking points. Sweden already tried the herd-immunity strategy and not nearly enough people got it.

And right-wing nutters complaining we should let everyone get infected are full-on hypocrites. People on the left and center are not going to stop social distancing (unless they are anti-vax nutters to begin with). 70% of the country is not going to go along with the, "let's infect everyone strategy" even if you dumbass nutters have enough judges to force many states to open before they are ready.

Sat May 23 08:55:45
This is really weird. Could it be the final proof that Corona indeed originates from USA? Why else would she only be able to speak English? She didn’t wake up and spoke Chinese, or Swedish, no she woke up and could only speak ENGLISH.

Article in Swedish, but I translated the lead paragraph:

Anne Ekström, 67, fell ill in corona two months ago.
For almost three weeks she was in a respirator - and when she woke up she couldn't speak Swedish.
- I tried to talk when I woke up, but I spoke English for the first few days, says Anne.

Sat May 23 14:43:45

Check out the wine, beer and liquor sales in US, in March. I don’t know if this is a bullish sign for economy or sign that we are all doomed, but going to have a good time dying
Sat May 23 15:47:30
Unsurprising that the lockdowns have contributed to spikes in alcoholism and (likely) cirrhosis. I'd also be curious to see the change in suicides compared to 2019.
Sat May 23 15:59:58
Murders will probably be down some, although gang violence still seems to have gone on these last few months. It's like criminals don't respect the law or something
Sat May 23 19:43:35
"before they are ready."

Lol. When will that be, Cuckhat? When Cuomo is finished purging nursing homes?
sam adams
Sat May 23 23:41:03
How much alcohol is actually too much? When does the health risk really take off?

Ahem, asking for a friend.
Sun May 24 00:23:24
Well, for starters the damage done is worse when mixed with anything else the liver has to process like Tylenol for example.

The quality of booze probably has a lot to do with it too.
Sun May 24 05:41:05
Testing anecdote:

A friend of mine (likely) has corona.

Their grandparents have tested positive and their parents are symptomatic. The three siblings are all clear or asymptomatic - it's been over a week.

But only the grandparents have been tested - there is no plan to test the rest of the family. They've just been ordered to self quarantine.

But 2/7 people in a household being tested doesn't bode well for the representativeness of our case count.
Sun May 24 11:23:53
Update on the church/pray posting I made above yesterday: again we have religious retards as super spreaders


The corona eruption in Frankfurt am Main is proving to be much larger than previously assumed. As a result of a church service in a Baptist congregation, at least 107 people were infected with the virus, according to Hesse's Health Minister Kai Klose.
Sun May 24 11:49:22
" Sweden already tried the herd-immunity strategy and not nearly enough people got it. "

And this is a convincing argument to continue with the current strategy?

"Murders will probably be down some, although gang violence still seems to have gone on these last few months. It's like criminals don't respect the law or something "

We had our first coronavirus mass shooting attempt here, although he was completely incompetent and manage to only wound 3 people before being caught. Probably because he chose a Wednesday night during a pandemic to shoot up a shopping center.
Sun May 24 13:31:05
With all the restaurants and retail businesses that will never return/be stuck in smaller footprint for years - the lowest income among us are the hardest hit economically from this.

I think a very high percent chance this moves the world toward scrapping traditional (last 100 years or so) social support schemes - food support, disability, unemployment, etc... and move toward a universal basic income for anyone making under a certain income level.
Sun May 24 13:46:26
There is an increase of this sort of crime.

Sun May 24 15:38:30
Good article here on why US joblessness worse than in Europe re covid.

Sun May 24 20:50:20
I mean republicans blocked the best strategy to both fight the recession and the disease by blocking paid leave. And all their idiot supporters talk about is other inane shit which has no relevance.

To be a republican in america is basically be a reactionary moron. They forgot about all the idiot men’s rights issues as soon as the far-right echo chamber and the kelptocrats that fund it move to some other issue.

Look at dak acting as if Coronavirus policy were black and white dems vs republicans. Fucking stupid reactionary retards.
sam adams
Sun May 24 21:00:41

The natives are getting restless.
Sun May 24 21:34:42

"Helicopter footage released by the Sheriff’s Office shows “a couple hundred people” surrounding the car parked on State Road A1A in front of a Burger King and dozens more gathered on the sidewalk.

“We’re going to identify him, and we’re going to charge him,” Chitwood said, without elaborating on possible charges."
Sun May 24 21:53:38
"Capri said the victims are not cooperating with the investigation and police have not arrested any suspects."

Well that was a given.

Tbh at first glance I thought it was just a mass shooting and even that news kinda relieved me, like hey were back to normal.
large member
Tue May 26 04:45:53
The scary thing is that herd immunity @60% is simply a linear reduction of RO with a base of 2.5 and a 0.25 reduction per 10% infected. 60% infected is simply when R0 = 1 (basic repreduction rate in a population with certain attributes including 60% immunity in the herd).

That would ultimately mean 70-90% overall infections. That number varies depending on the speed of transmission. What % of the population is currently contagious at the moment in time when R = 0. The higher it is, the more people will ultimately become infected before the disease can no longer transmit in a population.

So there is a point to a slow transmission even if aiming for herd immunity. It ultimately determines what % of the population will avoid infection at all.
large member
Tue May 26 04:46:32
R = 1, not O*
large member
Tue May 26 05:12:14
Another thing. RO is not static. Its valid for a certain population with certain attributes.

If that population has flea infested, communal 5 person beds, then it will have a higher RO than a population that washes their hands 5 times a day, refrains from handshakes, and habitually wears facial masks.

Whatever becomes the new normal is highly relevant, not only for covid-19, but for disease infections in general, and ultimately for maintaining antibiotic potency.

If aiming for herd immunity, then the fewest people as possible should have covid-19 when R=1 at 60% infection. When that occurs, lockdown should be put in place to drop R towards 0 as fast as possible.

This is what gives the largest number of non-infected protected within a flock with general herd immunity.
large member
Tue May 26 05:17:03
Ach, the 60% is not static either. If herd habit change reduces R0 to 2.0, then herd immunity is achieved at 50%. If habits reduce R0 to 1.5, then herd immunity is achieved at 37% etc.

Wear the damned mask.
Tue May 26 11:19:50
large member
Wed May 27 08:00:51
The number of people dying each day in the United States since early April has been consistently more than 10% higher than in previous years, according to a new report from the Health Care Cost Institute in Washington.

The institute connects this rise in daily deaths to the coronavirus pandemic.

Wed May 27 09:26:44
Since jergul is a lazy fuck who cant be bothered to link his shit, then I will:


The interesting data set is the % variance from the historical average, which shows that deaths in March 2020 actually came in well BELOW average.

So the question is why deaths started to spike only in April, when the majority of the country was already in shelter-in-place mode by that time.

The other big takeaway is that a large portion of the increase is attributable to NY, which had a 50% increase in April compared to the historic average. Lol what a shithole.
large member
Wed May 27 09:50:06
They had not actually got the link up when I checked, but your main point stands. I give this forum exactly the effort it deserves.

The take away is that mortality can be reduced in general through simple means. Don't shake hands. Stay at home if sick. Practice mini isolations when moving between states (an engineer would call it crossing system boundaries. But just stay away from people for a few days if you have been travelling to make sure you did not bring something back with you).

All kinds of stuff are way down in Norway. From lice, to traffic accidents, to STDs. Most impressive is the 67% reduction in broadspectrum antibiotics.

The new normal is probably something like they do in Japan. You know, the country with the greatest life expectancy on the planet.
Wed May 27 10:11:21
"You know, the country with the greatest life expectancy on the planet."

And the one with some of the worst long-term demographic prospects on the planet as well. Lack of human contact has its downsides.
Wed May 27 10:13:40
But I disagree this is the new normal. The ability of governments and the press to induce public panic over Covid goes away once the disease's lethality is abated. After that point, the old normal will certainly return.

God knows I don't intend to self-isolate every time I take a plane trip.
large member
Wed May 27 10:19:45
Its enough that you are woke. Say you know you should be careful for the first few days when you visit your mother.

RO is quite maleable and even small fundamental changes can have quite an impact.

Though I am sure some trumptards will refuse to wash their hands after taking a shit as an act of political defiance.
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