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Utopia Talk / Politics / Corona 23
Allahuakbar
Member
Tue May 19 11:30:46
(Let's use Arabic numerals in the title)

Corona makes Muslim population rise:

http://www...ia-expects-420000-more-babies/

Coronavirus baby boom: Indonesia expects 420,000 more babies
Tuesday, 19 May 2020


Indonesia could see a baby boom due to coronavirus confinement measures that limit access to contraception, its national family planning agency said on Tuesday.

The country could see up to 420,000 more babies born than expected, according to calculations by Indonesia’s Family Planning and Population Service (BKKBN).

Small clinics have closed and doctors see far fewer patients since the country implemented confinement measures to contain the new coronavirus (Covid-19) outbreak. As a result, access to contraceptives and family planning consultations have become more difficult, the agency said.

“Many people obey government directives and stay in their homes except in emergencies. And I guess for many, contraception is not considered an emergency,” explained Hasto Wardoyo, the head of the BKKBN.

The service estimates that about 10% of the country’s population no longer has access to birth control.

Indonesia is the third-most affected country in South-East Asia by the coronavirus, according to the World Health Organisation (WHO), counting 17,514 confirmed cases and 1,148 deaths.
sam adams
Member
Tue May 19 14:38:24
Future british citizens
Pillz
Member
Tue May 19 16:32:38
Seb's people
Daemon
Member
Thu May 21 03:48:56
http://www...coronavirus-soon-idUSKBN22W34T

Top HIV scientist says he wouldn't count on a vaccine for coronavirus soon


2 Min Read

(Reuters) - A top U.S. scientist said on Wednesday that governments should not count on a successful vaccine against COVID-19 being developed anytime soon when deciding whether to ease restrictions imposed to curb the pandemic.



William Haseltine, a groundbreaking researcher of cancer, HIV/AIDS and human genome projects, said the better approach now is to manage the disease through careful tracing of infections and strict isolation measures whenever it starts spreading.

While a COVID-19 vaccine could be developed, he said, “I wouldn’t count on it.”

Vaccines developed previously for other types of coronavirus had failed to protect mucous membranes in the nose where the virus typically enters the body, he said.

Even without an effective treatment or vaccine, the virus can be controlled by identifying infections, finding people who have been exposed and isolating them, he said. He urged people to wear masks, wash hands, clean surfaces and keep a distance.

He said China and some other Asian countries used that strategy successfully, while the United States and other countries did not do enough to “forcibly isolate” all who were exposed to the virus.

China, South Korea and Taiwan have done the best at curbing infections, he said, while the United States, Russia and Brazil have done the worst.

Tests on animals of experimental COVID-19 vaccines had been able to reduce the viral load in organs like lungs although the infections remained, he said.

For treatment, patients have been getting antibody-rich plasma donated by people who recovered from COVID-19, and drugmakers are at work producing refined and concentrated versions of that serum.

Known as hyperimmune globulin, those products are “where the first real treatments are going to be,” he said, predicting success also with research into monoclonal antibodies that home in on and neutralize the ability of the virus to enter human cells.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Thu May 21 05:34:03
I have heard now that the fastest vaccine ever created was against measles or mumps I forget and it took 4 years. So 12-18 seems optimistic. On the other hand there has never been a global incentive like we have now to create a vaccine.
CrownRoyal
Member
Thu May 21 08:42:55
Used to be BRICS, now what, BRIUS?


"There are now more than 5 million cases of coronavirus around the world, with a record 106,000 new cases recorded in the last 24 hours, the World Health Organization says.


WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said two-thirds of the new cases came from just four countries — the US, Russia, Brazil and India."
http://www...-5-million-infections/12271310
Rugian
Member
Thu May 21 09:14:57
So the majority of cases are occurring in four of the world's ten most populous countries? Wow!
Rugian
Member
Thu May 21 09:18:56
Not that its surprising that we have a large number of cases, since a significant part of the country seems determined to chalk up every single death that occurs as a Covid case:

"Colorado health officials claimed drunk man died of coronavirus when his blood-alcohol content was seven times the legal limit"

http://www...runk-man-died-coronavirus.html

If I was a bit more cynical, I'd say that Democrats are trying to inflate the numbers as much as possible in order to damage Trump in November. Good thing I'm not.
McKobb
Member
Thu May 21 09:25:07
I had my covid 19 antibody titer drawn Monday.
Pillz
Member
Thu May 21 10:16:39
Still no sign that countries are establishing dual health care systems to isolate corona virus for the most part.

It seems they really do think people will isolate for years.
CrownRoyal
Member
Thu May 21 11:00:48
"So the majority of cases are occurring in four of the world's ten most populous countries? Wow!"

BRICS was not a derogatary term, neither is my BRIUS, no reason to immediately get confronational.
sam adams
Member
Thu May 21 11:28:00
"WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus"

Is that the one china controls?
CrownRoyal
Member
Thu May 21 11:43:09
Yes
Dakyron
Member
Thu May 21 16:29:25
If it literally is going to take four years to develop a vaccine, and even then it might not be possible, we need, as a collective society, to just let the virus spread and then get on with life.

Between WWI and the Spanish flu, like 3% of the world's population was killed in just a few years.

If the entire world got COVID-19(100% of them), something like 1% of the world population would be dead. 3% would be like 130M people killed.

Daemon
Member
Sat May 23 05:17:41
For what did they pray?

(translated)
http://www...t-Schwierige-Lage-in-Frankfurt

Several church members infected: "difficult situation" in Frankfurt

10:51 a.m.

After a service in a Baptist congregation in Frankfurt am Main, several members were infected with the corona virus. "We have canceled all meetings. Worship services are now only available online," said Vladimir Pritzkau, vice-president of the association of the Evangelical Christian Baptist congregation. "It's a difficult situation for us."

The service was held on 10 May. Pritzkau was unable to name the exact number of people affected. Most are at home, six in hospitals. It is also unclear how many people attended the service. But "all rules were obeyed".

Religious meetings are allowed again since May 1st, under certain conditions. In churches and other places of worship, for example, the minimum distance of 1.50 meters between people must be maintained, and additional hygiene measures such as the placement of disinfectant dispensers are also necessary.
Cherub Cow
Member
Sat May 23 08:14:05
"we need, as a collective society, to just let the virus spread and then get on with life."

lol.
*"Get on with [Death]."
Dukhat
Member
Sat May 23 08:19:59
Rugian using anecdotes like usual. And Dakyron repeating far-right talking points. Sweden already tried the herd-immunity strategy and not nearly enough people got it.

And right-wing nutters complaining we should let everyone get infected are full-on hypocrites. People on the left and center are not going to stop social distancing (unless they are anti-vax nutters to begin with). 70% of the country is not going to go along with the, "let's infect everyone strategy" even if you dumbass nutters have enough judges to force many states to open before they are ready.

Paramount
Member
Sat May 23 08:55:45
This is really weird. Could it be the final proof that Corona indeed originates from USA? Why else would she only be able to speak English? She didn’t wake up and spoke Chinese, or Swedish, no she woke up and could only speak ENGLISH.

Article in Swedish, but I translated the lead paragraph:

Anne Ekström, 67, fell ill in corona two months ago.
For almost three weeks she was in a respirator - and when she woke up she couldn't speak Swedish.
- I tried to talk when I woke up, but I spoke English for the first few days, says Anne.

http://www...-inte-svenska-nar-hon-vaknade/
CrownRoyal
Member
Sat May 23 14:43:45
http://twitter.com/wineecon/status/1264264858004045828?s=21

Check out the wine, beer and liquor sales in US, in March. I don’t know if this is a bullish sign for economy or sign that we are all doomed, but going to have a good time dying
Rugian
Member
Sat May 23 15:47:30
Unsurprising that the lockdowns have contributed to spikes in alcoholism and (likely) cirrhosis. I'd also be curious to see the change in suicides compared to 2019.
Rugian
Member
Sat May 23 15:59:58
Murders will probably be down some, although gang violence still seems to have gone on these last few months. It's like criminals don't respect the law or something
Forwyn
Member
Sat May 23 19:43:35
"before they are ready."

Lol. When will that be, Cuckhat? When Cuomo is finished purging nursing homes?
sam adams
Member
Sat May 23 23:41:03
How much alcohol is actually too much? When does the health risk really take off?

Ahem, asking for a friend.
Habebe
Member
Sun May 24 00:23:24
Well, for starters the damage done is worse when mixed with anything else the liver has to process like Tylenol for example.

The quality of booze probably has a lot to do with it too.
Pillz
Member
Sun May 24 05:41:05
Testing anecdote:

A friend of mine (likely) has corona.

Their grandparents have tested positive and their parents are symptomatic. The three siblings are all clear or asymptomatic - it's been over a week.

But only the grandparents have been tested - there is no plan to test the rest of the family. They've just been ordered to self quarantine.

But 2/7 people in a household being tested doesn't bode well for the representativeness of our case count.
Daemon
Member
Sun May 24 11:23:53
Update on the church/pray posting I made above yesterday: again we have religious retards as super spreaders

(translated)
http://www...6c-f765-4549-b49f-704f33568b00

The corona eruption in Frankfurt am Main is proving to be much larger than previously assumed. As a result of a church service in a Baptist congregation, at least 107 people were infected with the virus, according to Hesse's Health Minister Kai Klose.
Dakyron
Member
Sun May 24 11:49:22
" Sweden already tried the herd-immunity strategy and not nearly enough people got it. "

And this is a convincing argument to continue with the current strategy?

"Murders will probably be down some, although gang violence still seems to have gone on these last few months. It's like criminals don't respect the law or something "

We had our first coronavirus mass shooting attempt here, although he was completely incompetent and manage to only wound 3 people before being caught. Probably because he chose a Wednesday night during a pandemic to shoot up a shopping center.
Hrothgar
Member
Sun May 24 13:31:05
With all the restaurants and retail businesses that will never return/be stuck in smaller footprint for years - the lowest income among us are the hardest hit economically from this.

I think a very high percent chance this moves the world toward scrapping traditional (last 100 years or so) social support schemes - food support, disability, unemployment, etc... and move toward a universal basic income for anyone making under a certain income level.
Habebe
Member
Sun May 24 13:46:26
There is an increase of this sort of crime.

http://www...ng-to-have-coronavirus-report/
Seb
Member
Sun May 24 15:38:30
Good article here on why US joblessness worse than in Europe re covid.


https://on.ft.com/2zGSXI6
Dukhat
Member
Sun May 24 20:50:20
I mean republicans blocked the best strategy to both fight the recession and the disease by blocking paid leave. And all their idiot supporters talk about is other inane shit which has no relevance.

To be a republican in america is basically be a reactionary moron. They forgot about all the idiot men’s rights issues as soon as the far-right echo chamber and the kelptocrats that fund it move to some other issue.

Look at dak acting as if Coronavirus policy were black and white dems vs republicans. Fucking stupid reactionary retards.
sam adams
Member
Sun May 24 21:00:41
http://www...26fhpxdriov5ccetlj4-story.html

The natives are getting restless.
Forwyn
Member
Sun May 24 21:34:42
lol

"Helicopter footage released by the Sheriff’s Office shows “a couple hundred people” surrounding the car parked on State Road A1A in front of a Burger King and dozens more gathered on the sidewalk.

“We’re going to identify him, and we’re going to charge him,” Chitwood said, without elaborating on possible charges."
Habebe
Member
Sun May 24 21:53:38
"Capri said the victims are not cooperating with the investigation and police have not arrested any suspects."


Well that was a given.

Tbh at first glance I thought it was just a mass shooting and even that news kinda relieved me, like hey were back to normal.
jergul
large member
Tue May 26 04:45:53
The scary thing is that herd immunity @60% is simply a linear reduction of RO with a base of 2.5 and a 0.25 reduction per 10% infected. 60% infected is simply when R0 = 1 (basic repreduction rate in a population with certain attributes including 60% immunity in the herd).

That would ultimately mean 70-90% overall infections. That number varies depending on the speed of transmission. What % of the population is currently contagious at the moment in time when R = 0. The higher it is, the more people will ultimately become infected before the disease can no longer transmit in a population.

So there is a point to a slow transmission even if aiming for herd immunity. It ultimately determines what % of the population will avoid infection at all.
jergul
large member
Tue May 26 04:46:32
R = 1, not O*
jergul
large member
Tue May 26 05:12:14
Another thing. RO is not static. Its valid for a certain population with certain attributes.

If that population has flea infested, communal 5 person beds, then it will have a higher RO than a population that washes their hands 5 times a day, refrains from handshakes, and habitually wears facial masks.

Whatever becomes the new normal is highly relevant, not only for covid-19, but for disease infections in general, and ultimately for maintaining antibiotic potency.

If aiming for herd immunity, then the fewest people as possible should have covid-19 when R=1 at 60% infection. When that occurs, lockdown should be put in place to drop R towards 0 as fast as possible.

This is what gives the largest number of non-infected protected within a flock with general herd immunity.
jergul
large member
Tue May 26 05:17:03
Ach, the 60% is not static either. If herd habit change reduces R0 to 2.0, then herd immunity is achieved at 50%. If habits reduce R0 to 1.5, then herd immunity is achieved at 37% etc.

Wear the damned mask.
TJ
Member
Tue May 26 11:19:50
http://www...JaE8o44VgttG6KTH99AcWAEZfquBDw
jergul
large member
Wed May 27 08:00:51
The number of people dying each day in the United States since early April has been consistently more than 10% higher than in previous years, according to a new report from the Health Care Cost Institute in Washington.

The institute connects this rise in daily deaths to the coronavirus pandemic.

CNN
Rugian
Member
Wed May 27 09:26:44
Since jergul is a lazy fuck who cant be bothered to link his shit, then I will:

http://hea...-coronavirus-pandemic-by-state

The interesting data set is the % variance from the historical average, which shows that deaths in March 2020 actually came in well BELOW average.

So the question is why deaths started to spike only in April, when the majority of the country was already in shelter-in-place mode by that time.

The other big takeaway is that a large portion of the increase is attributable to NY, which had a 50% increase in April compared to the historic average. Lol what a shithole.
jergul
large member
Wed May 27 09:50:06
They had not actually got the link up when I checked, but your main point stands. I give this forum exactly the effort it deserves.

The take away is that mortality can be reduced in general through simple means. Don't shake hands. Stay at home if sick. Practice mini isolations when moving between states (an engineer would call it crossing system boundaries. But just stay away from people for a few days if you have been travelling to make sure you did not bring something back with you).

All kinds of stuff are way down in Norway. From lice, to traffic accidents, to STDs. Most impressive is the 67% reduction in broadspectrum antibiotics.

The new normal is probably something like they do in Japan. You know, the country with the greatest life expectancy on the planet.
Rugian
Member
Wed May 27 10:11:21
"You know, the country with the greatest life expectancy on the planet."

And the one with some of the worst long-term demographic prospects on the planet as well. Lack of human contact has its downsides.
Rugian
Member
Wed May 27 10:13:40
But I disagree this is the new normal. The ability of governments and the press to induce public panic over Covid goes away once the disease's lethality is abated. After that point, the old normal will certainly return.

God knows I don't intend to self-isolate every time I take a plane trip.
jergul
large member
Wed May 27 10:19:45
Its enough that you are woke. Say you know you should be careful for the first few days when you visit your mother.

RO is quite maleable and even small fundamental changes can have quite an impact.

Though I am sure some trumptards will refuse to wash their hands after taking a shit as an act of political defiance.
Dakyron
Member
Wed May 27 11:17:55
Spanish Flu/WWI in 1918 resulted in roaring 20s. I guess that 2021 will be a hell of a party, COVID-19 or not.

Eventually people just stop caring.
jergul
large member
Wed May 27 11:27:16
Daky
With the roaring 2020s came dramatic improvements in public hygiene.

But Japan shows that countries can do this alone. Perhaps improved hygiene is more suited the temperaments of some people more than others.
Dakyron
Member
Wed May 27 11:47:07
Do we want people living to be 100? My grandmother is 101 and hasn't been cognitively aware of her surroundings for years. Is that really better?
jergul
large member
Wed May 27 14:14:22
Healthy life years increase faster than life expectancy does, but are strongly correlated.

There is probably all kinds of shit we don't know about long term damage from stuff best to avoid even when young and healthy.
jergul
large member
Thu May 28 01:23:16
Norwegian estimates:

0.7% of the population infected at some point
25% of them were actually tested
R(eff) 0.55
Minimum mortality is then 0.4%
Real mortality is probably at least double.
jergul
large member
Thu May 28 05:57:39
About 1/3 of indoor heating is provided by wood in Norway.

This is important because combustion needs huge amounts of air. Which in turn improves circulation and limits viral concentrations if there is infections in the home.

It may help explain why Norwegian mortality is so low outside of care facilities.

The viral load seems to correlate with how sick people become. Norwegian households may simply be exposed to a smaller load on average than many of their foreign equivalents.

Yay wood. I know we could weave it in again somehow.
Habebe
Member
Thu May 28 06:02:08
"Yay wood"_ Isn't the first time Jergul has said that.

Cool theory, but if it's circulation, then wouldn't warmer places who are likley using air conditioning ( myself included) be at lower risk.

As a habit I do tend.to disenfect the filter daily.
jergul
large member
Thu May 28 06:45:41
Don't overdo the disinfection. Just follow the owner's manual. Worst case? You are spreading whatever you are cleaning with in aerosol form around your home. That is bad (spray cleaning remedies have been linked with COPD).

Filters are unlikely to reduce viral load by very much in any case. The types of filters that do are specialized and quite costly even if you could adapt one to your AC system.

ACs circulate air within a system. Combustion pulls air from a system. A nice fire fully replaces the air in a home several times an hour.
jergul
large member
Thu May 28 06:48:18
also heh@yay wood. I am not yet old and decrepit enough for that to be cause for any particular celebratory mood :).
Habebe
Member
Thu May 28 06:59:55
Ive always sprayed it. My breathing isnt the best though either. Up north I was fine. Think its the pollen down here, its so bad it literally leaves a sticky layer on the cars and puddles look neon when it rains ive had to start taking zyrtec, quit smoking and I still do the occasional nebulizer treatment. Up North I was fine, Adderall actually helps the most, but I havnt taken them in a few years I used to take 60mg a day.

Now we use a wood fireplace in the winter which is cheap with a chainsaw and an axe.We are literally called.the world's wood basket. ( Yay. We got wood! Lol)

But it's way to warm 70_90 Fahrenheit these days.

I seem a cool article on how some uvb lights could be safe for human exposure. Within a narrow part of the spectrum.

http://phy...t-light-for-the-next-pandemic/
Habebe
Member
Thu May 28 07:14:15
Jergul, Btw I ended up getting a 100ft 12 gauge extension chord the other day free. I domt even kmow what to use it for yet, im sure I'll fimd something.
jergul
large member
Thu May 28 07:25:16
Ah, I get it. Something must be done, this is something.

Pulling air from the outside is not helpful if you have pollen allergies. But a simple HEPA filter is good enough to clear it.

But rain actually dampens pollen spread. If worse in rain, then probably mildew allergies is one of the problems (it can happily coexist with pollen allergies of course).

Contrive to run your indoor air through a hepa filter in one way or another might be helpful.

Otherwise, set up a compost heap in the far corner of your yard and habitually move organic debris from close to your house to your new compost heap.

And then of course - these newfangled masks everyone is talking about. They work for allergies :-). Eat one twice a day. Or was it wear one when moving about in allergenes? I forget :D.
jergul
large member
Thu May 28 07:26:26
Get an electric weedeater. Clear your property of stuff that you might be allergic to :).
Habebe
Member
Thu May 28 08:05:51
Its not worse breathing im rain usually. Maybe a little.if its super humid.

I have an echo 2 cycle weed whacker and a craftsmen riding mower.
jergul
large member
Thu May 28 10:21:33
If you must interact indoors: "Ventilation as much as you possibly can. Natural ventilation. Changing the inside air with outside air as regularly as possible. Not air conditioning, but ventilation," Bromage said.
The difference between air conditioning and ventilation: "Most of our home air conditioners just go through a very basic filter, and they recycle the same air over and over inside the house, there is no makeup air coming from outside. Opening your windows is just allowing fresh new air coming in, and pushing out the air that you've been breathing outside. So it makes a big difference in those respiratory droplets building up," he said.

CNN

:-)
Average Ameriacn
Member
Mon Jun 01 14:25:26
Trump saves Brazil!

http://www...-regarding-health-cooperation/


Joint Statement From the United States of America and the Federative Republic of Brazil Regarding Health Cooperation
HEALTHCARE

Issued on: May 31, 2020
SHARE:



The American and Brazilian people stand in solidarity in the fight against the coronavirus. Today, as a demonstration of that solidarity, we are announcing the United States Government has delivered two million doses of hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) to the people of Brazil.


HCQ will be used as a prophylactic to help defend Brazil’s nurses, doctors, and healthcare professionals against the virus. It will also be used as a therapeutic to treat Brazilians who become infected.

Further, in continuation of the two countries’ longstanding collaboration on health issues, we are also announcing a joint United States-Brazilian research effort that will include randomized controlled clinical trials. These trials will help further evaluate the safety and efficacy of HCQ for both prophylaxis and the early treatment of the coronavirus.
CrownRoyal
Member
Mon Jun 01 15:04:13
http://twitter.com/TomCottonAR/status/1267459561675468800


This guy should rule USA, fuckin Donald suddenly looks soft, 81st Airborne on cities steets is the answer. Americans wouldn't even know the diff, military and police loook exactly the same. I hope Cotton is the next GOP standard bearer, time to separate real patriots from all the cucks
CHINA RULZ USA SUCKS
Member
Wed Jun 03 13:51:43
DONT U BUY INDIN MASK BETR BUY CHINESE:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=--pwI4E9tsk

OWND WODN WODNBW DOBW DOWND
Allahuakbar
Member
Fri Jun 05 04:08:29
Corona horror!

http://www...-uncovers-polygamous-husbands/

Divorces rise by 30% in Saudi Arabia after quarantine uncovers polygamous husbands

The majority of women who requested divorces from their polygamous husbands were employees, businesswomen, prominent women in the community and female doctors
June 3, 2020

Divorces in Saudi Arabia have risen by 30 per cent in the month of February after the quarantine during the coronavirus pandemic caused many wives to discover that their husbands had other wives and families, cording to the Dubai-based news site Gulf News.

It was reported back in February that marriages within the kingdom had increased by five per cent compared to the same month last year, with 13,000 marriages having been conducted and 542 registered online.

The number of divorces that month, however, was at a record 7,482, resulting in a 30 per cent increase in requests for divorces and ‘khula’ – the Islamic process in which a woman can divorce her husband. Annulment is also an option for the women, particularly in cases in which they prove they were harmed by the husband.


Citing statistics from the Saudi Ministry of Justice, Gulf News noted that 52 per cent of divorce requests and cases that month were from the cities of Makkah and the capital Riyadh. It also noted that the majority of women who requested divorces from their polygamous husbands were employees, businesswomen, prominent women in the community and female doctors.

Saudi lawyer Saleh Musfer Al-Ghamdi told the site that within a period of two weeks during that month, he alone had received five divorce requests from wives. “Among them is a doctor who discovered that her husband married secretly to an Arab resident,” Al-Ghamdi said.

Polygamy, the practice of taking more than one wife, is legal in the religion of Islam and its legal status differs between Muslim-majority countries. While it is legal in the Gulf Arab states, it is illegal in other countries such as Turkey and Tunisia, and the practice has long been subject to debate and labelled as a women’s rights issue.

It has also been highly politicised, with Israel targeting the practice and cracking down on it in its Arab and Muslim communities, primarily as a method of decreasing rising Arab demographics while allowing the practice for Israeli Jews in order to increase Jewish demographics.
sam adams
Member
Sat Jun 06 13:46:50
100k enraged leftists will gather today in public for a mass sjw whine-fest

Lefty media, after screaming "strict social distancing" support this.
The Children
Member
Sun Jun 07 02:56:19
as i said before. fort detrick. why not just backtest, whats stoppin ur country.

whats stoppin it is coz if u do that, the world will discover the truth...
________________

About the origin investigation, everybody seems hellbent in working backward from the conclusion that China must be the origin.

They said that RaTG13 must be the ancestor of SARS-CoV-2 because they share 96.2% genetic similarity. What people don't tend to talk about is the fact that, the 3.8 % difference between SARS-CoV-2 and RaTG13 represent more than 50 years of natural evolution.

Recently we've noticed a statement made by Edward Holmes, a world-leading virologist who studies the evolution of viruses. He believes it would take about 50 years for RaTG-13 to naturally evolve to SARS-CoV-2. The difference of over 1,100 positions is huge. And they should respectively match the corresponding nucleotide positions in the genome of SARS-CoV-2, which means it requires more than 1,100 mutations in these exact positions to become SARS-CoV-2. Thus, the probability is very low.

http://new...ce-speak-QJeOjOZt4Y/index.html

This means that, there could be, theoretically, another animal, say, in Europe, Georgian bio-labs, Australia, USA (those bat eating Floridans surely seem suspicious), etc that can easily host CoVs with, say, 96.5 % similarity, or 98.1 % similarity, which would be much closer to SARS-CoV-2.

Obviously nobody seems interested in pursuing in any other direction than the Yunnan province horseshoe-bat, so the research seems stuck in trying to find the 'intermediate host' somewhere in China, where it is deemed to definitely be the origin.

People forget that, spillover of viruses and diseases from bats to humans happened in other countries too, for example Italy, Canada, or Australia.

Even if we are to stick with RaTG13, the virus was found somewhere in bats in Yunnan Province, yet a lot of the samples containing the virus came mostly from the border area. The bats where RaTG13 came from were also found in neigboring countries such as Myanmar and Laos.

The geographic location of horseshoe bat samples the team used appears to be from Southwest China's Yunnan Province. However, the paper noted that many of their sampling sites were close to China's borders with Myanmar and Lao and most of the bats sampled in Yunnan also live in those countries.


At this point, it's impossible to determine for sure where the origin is.

IMO, it's very likely that the virus was already circulating in USA and Europe since late November last year, if not much earlier.

Even if the origin turned out to be China, other countries already had the virus months before China reported it to W.H.O, when only 27 cases were found in Wuhan (France already had 16 in one hospital alone by December 31 2019).

The fact that the whole world came to know about this virus before 2020 was a testament, not of China's cover-up, but of its competence and its lightning speed response.
Daemon
Member
Mon Jun 08 16:15:35
That's new to me:

http://www...g-new-infections-who-says.html


Asymptomatic spread of coronavirus is ‘very rare,’ WHO says

Published Mon, Jun 8 2020

Government responses should focus on detecting and isolating infected people with symptoms, the World Health Organization said.
Preliminary evidence from the earliest outbreaks indicated the virus could spread even if people didn’t have symptoms.
But the WHO says that while asymptomatic spread can occur, it is “very rare.”
[...]

Pillz
Member
Tue Jun 09 11:43:36
Healthcare system sentenced thousands to die by not implementing the most basic infectious disease protocols in hospitals and seniors residences.

But all their advisories for the general public have been bullshit.

Asymptomatic spread? No
Contaminated surfaces? No
Social distancing? Not if it is for a leftist riot

Lmao
Paramount
Member
Tue Jun 16 00:50:20
THE RETURN OF THE CORONA!

Beijing city official warns virus situation is 'extremely severe'

A Beijing city official warned Tuesday that the situation in the capital was "extremely severe" as a fresh cluster of coronavirus cases prompted mass testing and lockdowns.

"Currently, the most important and urgent task is to resolutely prevent and control the epidemic," city spokesman Xu Hejian told a press briefing, adding the city must "take the most determined, decisive and strictest measures" to bring the new outbreak under control.

http://afp...n-is-extremely-severe/a/mRAmWE


They have found the Coronavirus on cuttingboards where they cut salmom from Norway, Canada and Australia etc:


”Major supermarkets in Beijing including Carrefour and Wumart stopped selling salmon on Saturday after the cutting boards of wholesalers in Beijing’s Xinfadi Market detected the novel coronavirus, sparking concern that salmon could be contaminated with the deadly virus, despite virologists saying that the coronavirus can’t be transmitted from fish to humans.

China imports about 80,000 tons of chilled and frozen salmon each year. Chile, Norway, Faroe Islands, Australia, Canada are the main sources of salmon imports, and the import volume of salmon is increasing year by year, according to news site Jiemian.com.

On Friday, the novel coronavirus was detected on a chopping board used by a seller of imported salmon at Xinfadi market. It is not yet known how the chopping board was exposed to the novel coronavirus.

Lin Li, chief scientist of a team that monitors aquatic disease and control in Guangdong Province, told the Global Times it’s not possible for live salmon to be contaminated with the virus given it lives in the ocean, neither can frozen salmon be a source of the novel coronavirus which can only exist in active cells.

It may be possible for salmon to be contaminated by virus-contaminated water during processing, transportation or packaging, Lin said. ”

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1191462.shtml
Habebe
Member
Tue Jun 16 01:03:07
I really want to go to a Wumart.
Seb
Member
Tue Jun 16 07:04:55
So in terms of excess deaths, covid his NYC harder than the Spanish flu.
Hrothgar
Member
Wed Jun 17 01:52:28
It's spiking all over the regions more lightly impacted earlier (went into social distancing before any major spread).

It's feels surreal that so many are trying to open businesses back up in communities where it's the worst it's been so far.

Today more Americans have now died of the virus than were killed in WW 1. Without a good vaccine in the next year, this thing is going to kill millions in the US alone while it "slowly" works it's way through the majority of the population over a few years.
Paramount
Member
Wed Jun 17 02:42:08
I saw a meme yesterday that I can't find now, but it said:


Bush: I killed Saddam Hussein.

Obama: I killed Osama Bin Laden.

Trump: I killed 100,000+ Americans.
jergul
large member
Wed Jun 17 03:31:44
That theory I had that Africa would mostly be spared seems to be playing out.
Habebe
Member
Wed Jun 17 04:41:29
Don't count your chickens just yet.

http://www...ca/coronavirus-africa.amp.html

Coronavirus Accelerates Across Africa
The virus was slow to start in many African countries, but epidemiologists say the number of confirmed cases on the continent is now rising fast.
Daemon
Member
Wed Jun 17 12:25:10
Slaughterhouses again:

http://www...ghterhouse-in-new-15346401.php

Regional officials in western Germany said Wednesday that the number of new COVID-19 cases linked to a large meatpacking plant has risen to 657, a higher figure than many recent daily increases for the entire country.

Health officials in Guetersloh said they have received a total of 983 test results have so far been received from workers at the Toennies slaughterhouse in Rheda-Wiedenbrueck. Of those, 326 tests were negative.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel praised regional officials for swiftly closing schools in the region.

“We are far away from an exponential increase,” Merkel told reporters, insisting that the country would continue to try to relax restrictions despite the local outbreak at the slaughterhouse.

“But we see from these outbreaks that the virus isn't gone,” she added.

Company officials at Toennies said the outbreak at the slaughterhouse may have been linked to workers taking the opportunity to visit their families in eastern European countries as border controls were relaxed.

Officials ordered the closure of the slaughterhouse, as well as isolation and tests for everyone else who had worked at the Toennies site — putting about 7,000 people under quarantine.

The infections pushed the region above the threshold of 50 new infections per 100,000 residents over a week at which local authorities in Germany have to consider new restrictions. Officials decided to close schools and child care centers across the county from Thursday until the summer vacation starts near the end of the month, but chose to avoid a wider-ranging lockdown.

There have been several outbreaks at German slaughterhouses in recent weeks, prompting the government to impose stricter safety rules for the industry and ban the practice of using sub-contractors.

The outbreak in Rheda-Wiedenbrueck, one of Germany's biggest slaughterhouses, could cut the available supply of meat in Germany. Sven-Georg Adenauer, head of the regional administration, said a fifth of Germany's meat products could be unavailable while the plant is shut, the dpa news agency reported.

Gereon Schulze Althoff, the Toennies official in charge of the company's pandemic response, said that the company had been “fighting like lions since February ... to keep the virus out of the operation.”

Schulze Althoff said he had no conclusive explanation for why the infections had occurred now. But he noted that many foreign workers had wanted to go and see their families as European borders started to reopen, meaning that “we were exposed to new risks.”

“We were aware of that, but we ... carried out extra testing of people returning from holidays and so on,” he added. “But we didn't succeed in keeping out these sources or this source (of infection) — we don't know which exactly.”

He said the company has a lot of workers from eastern European countries, and many went home over recent long weekends. He said cooled rooms may also have facilitated the virus spreading.

Germany started loosening its coronavirus restrictions in late April and has largely kept infection rates low, though local outbreaks linked to slaughterhouses, church services and a restaurant among other things have caused some concern.

News of the Guetersloh outbreak came as Chancellor Angela Merkel was meeting with Germany's 16 state governors to discuss the situation.
Paramount
Member
Thu Jun 18 10:13:55
NEWS FROM MOSCOW:

Coronavirus-Denying Russian Priest Captures Church With Cossack Fighters


A prominent Russian Orthodox priest who was barred from preaching for his anti-coronavirus views has laid siege to a women’s monastery, the 66.ru news website reported Tuesday.

Religious authorities barred Father Sergei, the ultraconservative spiritual leader of the Sredneuralsk women’s monastery in central Russia, from public ministry in April for disobeying orders to follow health guidelines. Monasteries across Russia have been beset by Covid-19 cases amid Russia’s outbreak.

Father Sergei chased out the Sredneuralsk monastery’s installed leader and set up a perimeter of Cossack fighters to guard the site, according to Yekaterinburg’s 66.ru.

“Father Sergei literally removed the mother superior from management,” the Yekaterinburg diocese told the outlet.

He is now reportedly refusing to let in journalists as well as a priest sent by the local church leadership to replace Mother Superior Varvara, who had led the Sredneuralsk monastery since its founding in 2005.

“I’m not going anywhere... they’ll have to chase me out with police and the National Guard,” Father Sergei said Wednesday.

The diocese said Mother Superior Varvara and a number of abbesses left the monastery voluntarily “to avoid unnecessary infighting, to which Father Sergei is prone, and give him a chance to come to his senses,” Interfax reported.

Religious leaders in Moscow condemned Father Sergei’s seizure of the monastery but did not outline steps to recapture it.

“His actions entail real violence,” church representative Vakhtang Kipshidze told the Open Media news website.

“We hope that someone from his congregation will take stock of the situation and make the right decision not to damage their own security and spiritual well-being,” he said.

Father Sergei is known as the former confessor of several public figures including Russian lawmaker and former Crimean prosecutor Natalia Poklonskaya. The ex-policeman changed his secular name to Nikolai Romanov, in honor of Russia’s last emperor, and previously spent 13 years in prison for murder.

Father Sergei now faces an ecclesiastical court for defying bans on public ministry as well as a secular court on suspicion of inciting hatred. During its first session this week, Father Sergei accused Orthodox Church leader Patriarch Kirill of betraying the faith.

http://www...h-with-cossack-fighters-a70597
Dakyron
Member
Thu Jun 18 17:29:21
"Today more Americans have now died of the virus than were killed in WW 1. Without a good vaccine in the next year, this thing is going to kill millions in the US alone while it "slowly" works it's way through the majority of the population over a few years. "

Worst case estimate is still that 40% of Americans are infected, 0.5% of them die. 328,000,000 * 0.4 = 131,200,000 infected * 0.005 = 656,000 deaths.

Its been roughly 3 months of being widespread and we have 118,000 deaths.

Looking at leading causes of death in the US, COVID-19(118,000) is currently ahead of Diabetes(~83,000) but trailing Accidents(170,000), COPD(160,000), Stroke(146,000), and Alzheimers(121,000), and it has no shot of overtaking perpetual juggernauts Cancer(600,000) and Heart Disease(647,000) anytime soon.

Coincidentally, all the stuff people normally die of is also causing you to be susceptible to COVID-19... so... not to be a giant asshole, but aren't most of them going to die anyway?

(death counts for non-COVID 19 are for full years, not just through June)
Seb
Member
Fri Jun 19 18:40:49
Dakyron:

Why do you say worst case?

40% is the lowest prediction for maximum extent of infection, and 0.5% is the lower bound for IFR.

What you are describing is the best case with no measures.

"oincidentally, all the stuff people normally die of is also causing you to be susceptible to COVID-19... so... not to be a giant asshole, but aren't most of them going to die anyway?"

No. If most people die of foo, that is not the same as saying most foo patients end up dying.
Daemon
Member
Thu Jun 25 11:47:36
Party on!

http://www...s-pervasive-coronavirus-spread

The Austrian ski resort of Ischgl, an early European coronavirus hotspot, may have the world’s highest Covid infection rate with 42% of residents showing signs of antibodies in a study.

The prevalence rate is the highest recorded in scientific literature so far, said Dorothee van Laer, a virologist at the Medical University of Innsbruck who led the study, citing local surveys in Switzerland’s Groeden with 27% and Geneva with 10%. Other places may have higher rates, but none that have been observed under scientific conditions, she said in an online press conference.

The disease probably started spreading among locals at the resort, nicknamed the Ibiza of the Alps for its party atmosphere, along with visitors from Germany, Norway, Iceland and other countries weeks before the first positive tests were recorded in March, according to the scientist.

“The virus has circulated under the radar screen as early as the second half of February according to all our research,” von Laer said. Her team of researchers plans to help the village by testing tourists arriving in the coming season, she said.

Tourism and health managers from Ischgl and the Tyrol province are being investigated for failing to shut bars and hotels earlier than mid-March, which may have helped propagate thousands of cases around the world.

The researchers collected blood samples from 1,473 people, or almost 80% of Ischgl’s residents, for a week ending April 27. The number of those who tested positive for the antibodies, which arise after infection, was six times higher than those who’d officially tested positive for the virus itself.

The most common symptoms recorded by the patients included loss of sense of taste and smell, fever and coughing. Only nine adults in the entire sample received hospital treatment.
Hrothgar
Member
Sat Jun 27 12:14:06
I find it an interesting grey area between amusement and disgusted shock that so many states, including my own, keep traveling down the path of 'back to normal' efforts while the virus infection rate is worse than it has ever been thus far.
Pillz
Member
Sat Jun 27 12:33:52
Mortality isn't increasing.

It's increasingly obvious that corona related deaths were a largely the result of poor medical treatment and abhorrent lack of isolation of the corona and non corona health care treatment lines.
Pillz
Member
Sat Jun 27 12:37:48
Which is why major cities are going to be conclusively proven to have elevated rates of mortality vs less populated locations.

Montreal city never even scratched 20% of potential capacity. Why house infected patients in the same wings as elderly people and those recovering from operations?

The health care system and politicians -abused- this situation in an effort to experiment with the exercise of mass social control. And either because of their own hubris or the inability to do both - they left the medical system entirely unprepared
Paramount
Member
Wed Jul 01 01:17:04
U.S. coronavirus cases rise by 47,000, biggest one-day spike of pandemic

“Clearly we are not in total control right now,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told a U.S. Senate committee. “I am very concerned because it could get very bad.”

Fauci said the daily increase in new cases could reach 100,000 unless a nationwide push was made to tamp down the resurgent virus.

‘TRUMP FAILED US’

“It didn’t have to be this way. Donald Trump failed us,” the 77-year-old former vice president said in a speech in Delaware.

http://www...ccine-fauci-says-idUSKBN2412TA


“Clearly we are not in total control right now,” Dr. Anthony Fauci

What? This must be a lie? Trump said in february already that the USA had the virus in control.


Also, are you ready for the G4 EA H1N1, the new pig flu from China? The WHO is warning us now.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-pigs-who/who-says-we-cannot-let-our-guard-down-after-china-pigs-study-idUSKBN2411DC?il=0
swordtail
Anarchist Prime
Thu Jul 02 17:20:49
Did coronavirus cause a man to have a 4-hour erection? Doctors studied it to find out

http://www...html?__twitter_impression=true
Rugian
Member
Tue Jul 07 13:10:35
Bolsomito no! Aii!
Paramount
Member
Tue Jul 07 14:14:11
So Bolsonazi got covid-19. But he has been eating hydroxychloroquine since Trump said it was a cure so how could this happen?

And why is Bolsonazi at a press briefing instead of in a quarantine? Very irresponsible.
Nekran
Member
Tue Jul 07 16:40:50
So by now the US has more deaths than the EU, despite having a significantly lower population at about 1/3rd of the pop density to boot.

The EU was hit hard earlier too and could've served as a warning to take proper measures.

How are the UP Americans feeling about the US response by now? I remember a lot of glee about death rates being higher in Europe early on.

Have any of you changed opinions? Do a lot of you still think you should've gone for even more death in a desperate attempt to preserve the economy?

Not that I'm confident that it's over here... with traveling in the EU opening up again and lockdowns ending all around, we'll see how things evolve.

Just honestly wondering if opinions have changed at all.
sam adams
Member
Tue Jul 07 16:52:02
Nekran is seb your math teacher?


Covid deaths as of now:

EU
As of 7 July 2020, 178 266 deaths

http://www...40JfkkT9jy&cshid=1594158604055
Pillz
Member
Tue Jul 07 16:52:54
How are you as stupid as Seb? Death rate in US is still lower than the UK, France, Spain, Belgium and Italy.
sam adams
Member
Tue Jul 07 16:53:07
US TOTAL DEATHS
130,133

http://www...s-updates/us-cases-deaths.html
sam adams
Member
Tue Jul 07 16:53:59
Lol@nekran.

Retardation
Seb
Member
Tue Jul 07 17:21:16
Adding EEA and UK deaths to the EU figure and calling it the EU death rate is like adding Mexican and Canadian deaths to the US.

Sam, learn to do basic addition.
Rugian
Member
Tue Jul 07 17:28:14
lol nekran pwnt.

And let's not even get into the draconian measures Europe had to take just to get to that 178k figure. In France, you couldn't even leave your home without an official government-issued permit! What the hell was that?!!

If it comes down to Chinese-style authoritarianism or having a few more 90 year old geezers die off, I'll take the latter any day. But even with that, you still lose! lol!

Seb

Interesting that you would compare your own country to Mexico here. Show some pride in the UK man.
sam adams
Member
Tue Jul 07 18:10:22
The UK was part of the EU when corona started, subject to their rules and border controls.

But its not any more.

Lol.

Because you left.

Because nigel farange is smarter than you.

Lol again.


But seriously, rofl at seb trying to exclude his own country from eu stats in order to boost eu stats a little. The irony is hilarious.
sam adams
Member
Tue Jul 07 18:15:40
But i feel fine nekran. We got bored and decided the bug wasnt all that scary 2 months ago, accepting higher deaths for more freedom.
Seb
Member
Wed Jul 08 00:57:18
Sam:

UK left on 31st Jan.
First case diagnosed in Italy was in Feb.

There are no pan EU rules etc.

The EEA States were never part of the EU.


Just admit you fucked up.
Nekran
Member
Wed Jul 08 01:31:25
"In France, you couldn't even leave your home without an official government-issued permit!"

Freely available online to fill in on your honor that you have one of the valid reasons to go outside. I agree that was a stupid rule and that the french generally suck, but it wasn't what you make it out to be.

"But seriously, rofl at seb trying to exclude his own country from eu stats in order to boost eu stats a little."

It's not part of the EU. Neither are the EEA states indeed. I was comparing the EU to the US.

The UK pretty much did the US thing, but is far more densely populated, which made that even more of a bad move.

"We got bored and decided the bug wasnt all that scary 2 months ago, accepting higher deaths for more freedom."

I'd say it very much curtails the freedom of the ones who die and their loved ones, but that's just me. Difficult choices have to be made.

Still a lot of quarantaine going on out there too though.

"lol nekran pwnt."

Actually, the numbers provided to "pwn" me, were very much incorrect.

Also pwnage was not on my mind... I was just wondering if any opinions had changed with these numbers showing how badly things are working out there atm.
Daemon
Member
Wed Jul 08 04:43:27
Situation in Serbia:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gliOjDhzCos

"Thousands protest in Belgrade as Serbia reimposes Covid-19 curfew"

http://www.intellinews.com/serbia-opens-field-hospitals-as-coronavirus-spreads-186949/

The Serbian army set up a field hospital in a concert hall in the capital Belgrade, where patients with milder symptoms of coronavirus (COVID-19) will be treated, on July 6, the government said in a statement.

The move came as all hospitals in Belgrade have reached full capacity. The city is facing a sharp increase of coronavirus cases in the last few days and the authorities have declared state of emergency there.
[...]
Seb
Member
Wed Jul 08 06:46:31
Nekran:

I think we did the Swedish thing, then flipped to trying to do something closer to the French thing. And then apply spin to try and pretend the whole thing was a consistent plan from the start and that the things they are trying to delivery and failing to have actually been done.

I'm not sure there really is a US thing - other than to turn it into a purity test for political affiliation - which is rather the problem.
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