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Utopia Talk / Politics / So I guess COVID is cancelled?
Rugian
Member
Sun May 31 15:46:45
Based on the protests over the weekend, it seems like we are officially over COVID now.

Thank goodness. Dealing with that disease had become tiresome, like, months ago. Glad we're finally able to move on.

*rips off mask and firebombs a CVS*
Pillz
Member
Sun May 31 15:54:12
You mean cancelled for the media, right? Because nobody has cared about it since the weather got better anyways.
Paramount
Member
Sun May 31 15:54:32
I also noticed it today when I was in the City. I haven’t seen so much people in the City since beginning of March.
Rugian
Member
Sun May 31 15:55:36
Not entirely true, I had a Karen criticize me for not wearing a mask while walking outside just today. But I get your point.
sam adams
Member
Sun May 31 15:55:55
Liberals whining about white men ruining the world by not hiding sure changed their mind real fucking fast eh seb?
Habebe
Member
Sun May 31 16:53:59
I was wondering since blacks were much liklier to die from covid and now they are rioting in close proximity if we will see waves of them die off now.
Wrath of Orion
Member
Sun May 31 17:00:35
It's going to be a hilariously bad dumpster fire.
hood
Member
Sun May 31 17:13:14
Over/under on the severity multiplier of the second wave? I'm thinking 2x might not be reasonable with how stupid everyone is being. Better hope the hospitals are ready.
Pillz
Member
Sun May 31 17:26:06
Not even going to make the news.
Habebe
Member
Sun May 31 17:36:28
It was funny, locally in Columbia they tried to break into the jewelry store, qindows broke but couldnt get passed the steel bars. Im charleaton they looted the apple store... Cause you know justice.
jergul
large member
Sun May 31 18:16:37
I have heard that Trump is going to declare Covid an illegal terrorist organization.
Dakyron
Member
Sun May 31 19:28:54
"Not entirely true, I had a Karen criticize me for not wearing a mask while walking outside just today. But I get your point. "

Good lord. I was inside a goddamn grocery store today and I would say 50% at best were wearing masks. No one said anything.

"It was funny, locally in Columbia they tried to break into the jewelry store, qindows broke but couldnt get passed the steel bars. Im charleaton they looted the apple store... Cause you know justice. "

Also looted the local apple store. Posted on social media to meet up and loot/vandalize an upscale mall so as not to "hurt our own".
Habebe
Member
Mon Jun 01 16:18:23
Not hurt our own?


http://youtu.be/VYy77IGsBFc
swordtail
Anarchist Prime
Mon Jun 01 16:40:08
http://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1267566591127900160
jergul
large member
Mon Jun 01 16:58:37
ST
I don't think the virus has changed (though definitely - check out the Italian strain for mutations), but rather that the spillover from lockdown has seen infected people burdened with smaller viral loads.

A lot of problems go away if we move preventive health sciences from the 19th to say the early 20th century (relative to where other techs are currently).

Summed up by: wear the fucking masks.
Cherub Cow
Member
Mon Jun 01 23:18:58
[Rugian]: "*rips off mask and firebombs a CVS*"

lol, nice

..
@ Twitter link ( http://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1267566591127900160 )

From the comments...
"WHO and other experts say no evidence of coronavirus losing potency"
[Reuters; June 1, 2020]
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-who-transmission/who-and-other-experts-say-no-evidence-of-coronavirus-losing-potency-idUSKBN23832J
• "Professor Alberto Zangrillo, head of intensive care at Italy’s San Raffaele Hospital in Lombardy, which bore the brunt of Italy’s epidemic, on Sunday told state television that the new coronavirus “clinically no longer exists” ... "“The result was unambiguous: an extremely significant difference between the viral load of patients admitted in March compared to” those admitted last month, Zangrillo said"
“We’ve got to get back to being a normal country,” [Zangrillo] said. ( This line from another Reuters article, http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-italy-virus/new-coronavirus-losing-potency-top-italian-doctor-says-idUKKBN2370OP )"

• "But WHO epidemiologist Maria Van Kerkhove and several other experts on viruses and infectious diseases, said Zangrillo’s comments were not supported by scientific evidence."
"“In terms of transmissibility, that has not changed, in terms of severity, that has not changed,” Van Kerkhove told reporters."
"“With data from more than 35,000 whole virus genomes, there is currently no evidence that there is any significant difference relating to severity,” [Martin Hibberd] said in an emailed comment."
"“The suggestion by the Italian doctor [Zangrillo] is potentially dangerous as it gives false reassurance based on no evidence,” said Leana Wen, an emergency physician and public health professor at George Washington University. “There is no scientific evidence for there having been a change in the coronavirus. It’s a highly transmittable and highly contagious disease. We need to be as on guard as ever.”"

..
The relationship between viral load and case severity came from a Chinese study:
"Viral dynamics in mild and severe cases of COVID-19"
[The Lancet; March 19, 2020]
http://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30232-2/fulltext
• "The mean viral load of severe cases was around 60 times higher than that of mild cases, suggesting that higher viral loads might be associated with severe clinical outcomes."

• But the study had flaws: it did not control for the quantity of initial virus particles, and it had sample biases, requiring self-reporting and self-testing for data to be accepted:
(This article reviews the Chinese study)
"SARS-CoV-2 viral load and the severity of COVID-19"
[The Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine; March 26, 2020]
http://www.cebm.net/covid-19/sars-cov-2-viral-load-and-the-severity-of-covid-19/
"The small sample size of this study results in wide confidence intervals and uncertainty over the point estimates. Compared with other common viral respiratory diseases, the onset of peak viral load appeared to be delayed. Only those who sent the specimen on day 10 were included, which further limits firm conclusions to be drawn."

..
• Experts currently find that the high rate of replication of the virus quickly makes irrelevant any initial viral load figures:
"Expert reaction to questions about COVID-19 and viral load"
[Science Media Center; March 24, 2020]
http://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-questions-about-covid-19-and-viral-load/
"“It is unlikely that higher doses that would be acquired by being exposed to multiple infected sources would make much difference to the course of disease or the outcome. It’s hard to see how the dose would vary by more than 10 fold. (Although differences have been seen in lab animal infections with some viruses, those animals are inbred (genetically similar to respond in the same way). It’s unlikely that we’d see the differences as statistically significant in out-bred humans.)"

• The article goes on to talk about how high viral load infections primarily come into play in hospital settings (health care workers dealing directly with multiple high-severity-symptom patients at once — dealing with people who have the highest viral load and thus who tend to be the most contagious).

• Viral load does not need to be very high for initial infection.
[Professor Willem van Schaik]: "For many bacterial and viral pathogens we have a general idea of the minimal infective dose but because SARS-CoV-2 is a new pathogen we lack data. For SARS, the infective dose in mouse models was only a few hundred viral particles. It thus seems likely that we need to breathe in something like a few hundred or thousands of SARS-CoV-2 particles to develop symptoms. This would be a relatively low infective dose and could explain why the virus is spreading relatively efficiently ... It seems unlikely that people can pick up small numbers of viruses from others (e.g. in a crowd) and that will tip the infection over the edge to become symptomatic as that must happen around the same time. In the current lockdown situation this seems even less likely as gatherings of more than two individuals are banned. Because the infectious dose is probably quite low, it is more likely that you will be infected by a single source rather than from multiple sources. Transmission can take place through small droplets in the air (like the ones that are produced after sneezing and which stay in the air for a few seconds). You can breathe in these droplets or they can land on surfaces."


TLDR: Viral load has more to do with how far along a person is in their course of incubation/infection. Italian doctor Zangrillo's paper is expected next week, but he seems to be politically driven (his line about wanting to open up the country). Current data suggests that contact with the droplets of an infected person still have the same prognoses in the infected (i.e., still just as bad).


..
Lastly...
"World Health Organization warns of 'second peak' in areas where coronavirus is declining"
[CNBC, May 25, 2020]
http://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/25/who-warns-of-second-peak-in-areas-where-coronavirus-is-declining.html

Better hope those protestors have been washing their hands and not touching their faces...
Pillz
Member
Tue Jun 02 05:40:49
WHOs future is at this point dependent on this being as severe as possible.
Cherub Cow
Member
Tue Jun 02 07:37:29
It'd be a bummer for them if Trump had been semi-correct about the summer washing it away — ending all cases all over the world by the end of June ;D
The Children
Member
Tue Jun 02 13:31:52
nobody cared about it since china beat it and u didnt.

it reminds u of ur inferiority...
Habebe
Member
Tue Jun 02 18:18:10
Look down your pants and remind yourself of the inferiorority of Asians.
Dukhat
Member
Wed Jun 03 03:08:34
Cuckservatives yesterday: "The mainstream media is biased and liberal! Ignore it, they lie to you!"

Cuckservatives today: "lOl, Coronavirus is cancelled because mainstream media is no longer covering it."

Stupidity combined with the attention span of a gnat fly.
Cherub Cow
Member
Wed Jun 03 06:04:37
Even those straw man fallacies were embedded with their own fallacies. That's impressive.
swordtail
Anarchist Prime
Wed Jun 03 12:31:49
Couples should wear face masks during sex, new study insists

http://www.foxnews.com/health/couples-face-masks-sex-study
hood
Member
Wed Jun 03 12:57:41
"Couples should wear face masks during sex"

Wait, that isn't normal? Green dick paint, a pair of cardboard cutouts of Hulk and Black Widow... doesn't everyone do that?
sam adams
Member
Wed Jun 03 13:52:05
Lol cuckhat struggles with sarcasm.
Dukhat
Member
Sun Jun 28 09:41:14
TTT - Rugian's stupid always ages like milk.
Rugian
Member
Sun Jun 28 09:44:19
Oh, I must have missed the memo that BLM protests are no longer being allowed.

Lol Dukhat you low IQ simpleton.
TJ
Member
Sun Jun 28 09:44:27
LoL at what Hood posted.
sam adams
Member
Sun Jun 28 13:39:35
Oh look, over the past few weeks corona has been increasing.

Must have been that 1 trump rally, and not the 47 thousand BLM protests, rallys and riots.
sam adams
Member
Sun Jun 28 13:44:27
http://mob...ake/status/1277297233092894723

No rona here. -seb.
Seb
Member
Sun Jun 28 14:41:35
http://www...BqgEHZ3dzLXdpeg&sclient=psy-ab


Illinois new cases, steady.

http://www...BqgEHZ3dzLXdpeg&sclient=psy-ab


Florida new cases, exponential growth.


iT wAs TeH pRoTeStS!!!!

Habebe
Member
Sun Jun 28 14:55:35
http://www...ida-coronavirus-cases.amp.html

Now look at this map.
Habebe
Member
Sun Jun 28 14:56:27
http://en....orge_Floyd_protests_in_Florida

Amd then compare it to this map....see any overlap?
Rugian
Member
Sun Jun 28 15:02:12
Seb and nim both completely missing the point.
Habebe
Member
Sun Jun 28 15:19:59
Nimatzo isn't in this thread, typo?

Now its funny, most of the media is touting that the protests havnt spread the virus due to anecdotal mapping.

But those two maps clearly show at least a correlation.

PA to the largrst spikes are in places that had protests.
Seb
Member
Sun Jun 28 15:21:58
They are all cities because that is where people protest, and that's also where health authorities that generate the stats are based?

I mean we could also look at where all the beach parties etc, are.

Habebe, if the protests were the main driver of the increase, why do you not see the states with the big spikes lined up with the state with the biggest protests?

Even your source seems to suggest the Miami protests were 500 or so people (which seems small to be honest), but from what I can see the biggest marches were in Tampa and Orlando, but the biggest and highest density clusters are in Miami, Broward County and Palm Beach where your wiki link says protests were in the hundreds.
Seb
Member
Sun Jun 28 15:22:57
Also, the link you showed isn't of spikes, it's cumulative cases.
Seb
Member
Sun Jun 28 15:31:26
http://projects.tampabay.com/projects/data/coronavirus/en/

It actually looks broadly consistent across all the big cities.

Obviously this is hard to do eyeballing. You'd want underlying data showing BLM protest sizes as proportion of population, and then how rate of increase varied.

Still, this doesn't look hugely compelling that BLM protests are the main driver, even local to florida; let alone in comparing Chicago, where Sam's picture was taken, and Florida.
Habebe
Member
Sun Jun 28 15:48:54
Seb, First off with out track and trace data this is all estimation.

I don't know whether it was the largest reason for spikes. The big issue is as you have said its hard to say did Mike catch covid at thw beach party or the protest also on the same vicinity.

My point is more to say we can not dismiss the protests as a large spreader of the virus.

Now the Philladelphia inquired will dismiss the protests as such. But keep in mind PA is having big spikes again.

To point to a likley culprit and say " that had a neglible effect if any" is a hack argument.

We are seeing spikes generally in states/areas where we didnt see such spikes before , in places where fewer people likley have resistance.

Now I realize the count of who has had the disease is a low % , but that tallying whonhas had it and was tested so likley as with cockroaches if you see one there is a hundred, if you see 10 there is likley 1k etc.

So it makes sense places with higher resistance will be less prone to spikes.
sam adams
Member
Sun Jun 28 16:10:58
"Illinois new cases, steady."

This was sebs response to a butt pirate parade going on today.

The lack of logical processing in your head... amazing.

25
Renzo Marquez
Member
Sun Jun 28 16:26:04
Can COVID be transmitted through eating da poo poo?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=euXQbZDwV0w
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