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Utopia Talk / Politics / Venezuela- an inquiry into
Habebe
Member
Mon Jun 22 08:42:40
So this is often brought up in other threads and an often touted response to why V. Is so shitty is because of US sanctions instead of inept communist dictators who have no idea how money works.

So I think we can all agree that

1. Pinning your entire economy on the price of oil is retarded, nd when it dropped, V. Not being diversified like say there free market neighbor Chile, the nation went broke.

2. Hyperinflation, just printing money seemingly endlessly is again retarded. While not exclusively communist, it is a hallmark of shitty dictatorships in general.

So how again is this the USAs fault?
Rugian
Member
Mon Jun 22 08:52:44
Not to mention predatory rationalizations which disincentived foreign investment.

Venezuela's economic collapse is the dictionary definition of an own goal.
jergul
large member
Mon Jun 22 08:54:44
US sanctions makes it your fault.
jergul
large member
Mon Jun 22 08:56:04
From what Bolton says, Venezuela barely avoided a US invasion.

You really have to stop breaking countries, and not accepting responsibility for breaking them.
Rugian
Member
Mon Jun 22 09:00:15
Jergul is engaging in revisionist history. If you listened to him, youd think Venezuelan economic and foreign* policies weren't the problem.

*Namely the brilliant strategy of deliberately antagonizing the US for the better part of two decades. And oh look, all of a sudden the US isnt in a mood to bail them out or overlook their human rights abuses. Lol
Rugian
Member
Mon Jun 22 09:03:26
Hey remember when Venezuela was experiencing regular bouts of hyperinflation in the 80s, well before anyone in the US had ever heard of Chavez, because their economy was such dogshit?

Jergul feel free to explain how that was our fault as well.
Habebe
Member
Mon Jun 22 09:07:35
Even most liberals dont think this is the USs fault.

I'll guess that Jergul is gonna sleep on it and or research a bit and try to pit forth a real argument that attempts to support his false narrative.
CrownRoyal
Member
Mon Jun 22 09:41:42
"In an Oval Office interview with Axios on Friday, President Trump suggested he's had second thoughts about his decision to recognize Juan Guaidó as the legitimate leader of Venezuela and said he is open to meeting with dictator Nicolás Maduro"

http://www...88-4900-8d73-c8fb50d96845.html
jergul
large member
Mon Jun 22 09:47:11
Habebe
How hard is it for you to understand that you cannot put countries under heavy sanctions, then say "look at how that country sucks".

Its like me punching you in the face, then saying you are a disgusting pig because you stumble around with blood on your shirt.
Rugian
Member
Mon Jun 22 09:47:20
^ I'm confused. Dukhat told us that Trump stopped during interviews because he's become too senile, so what is this fake news based on?
Habebe
Member
Mon Jun 22 10:22:49
Jergul, The thing is in that example the punch in the face CAUSED the rumbling and blood to drip on the shirt.

US Sanctions did not cause the nation to rely so heavily on the.price of.oil.

US Sanctions did not cause V. To stop putting money in a savings.account "rainy day fund" under Chavez.

US Sanctions didn't force V. To print money into hyper inflation.

And lets take a closer look at these sanctions. Obama signed them by executive order on March 9, 2015.

These sanctions were aimed at.mostly individuals and were also placed by most of Europe. These sanctions.took place after the bad economic decisions by V.

Also actions matter. You can't piss off your trading partners and then expect them to keep trading with you with no retalitory actions.

Economics is heavily influenced by actions, one can not be separated by the other.
Habebe
Member
Mon Jun 22 10:33:46
Cr, At this point it may be a good thing. It may be easier to get Maduro to negotiate than to wait until Guidao takes power. We have a good deal of leverage on Maduro, and Guidao hasnt done much but garner international support. Which while.important means nothing if you don't take.ypur cointry back.
sam adams
Member
Mon Jun 22 11:01:46
Venezuela is what happens eventually when parents dont come pick up their tantrum throwing kids from CHOP.
sam adams
Member
Mon Jun 22 11:04:04
"How hard is it for you to understand that you cannot put countries under heavy sanctions, then say "look at how that country sucks". "

Venezuala chose to get sanctioned jergul. They violated about 8 billion different laws and norms with their property seizing bullshit. That is 100% on them.
jergul
large member
Mon Jun 22 11:10:51
Sammy
Eminent Domain is valid everywhere and are in fact highly loved by your current head of state.

There are international mechanisms that ensure compensation.

Unilateral sanctions justified by nationalization are unjustified sanctions.

But that is a bit beside the point. The experiment is tainted. Venezuela cannot be judged by the merits or demerits of its system because the measure you have employed would break any system.
Rugian
Member
Mon Jun 22 11:34:56
The merits of the system involved becoming a petrostate and conducting predatory seizures of US company assets.
Habebe
Member
Mon Jun 22 11:40:52
Jergul, Estimates put the danctions I beleive at a loss of -11 billion tops, not really enough to topple a nation.

Much less when you factor in all the Russian help amd probably Chinese help they've received. Even still, 11 billion, plenty of individual.companies.are.worth more than that.

The real world is.not a lab with exact undue influence. That doesn't mean the lessons learned from it are not real.
Habebe
Member
Mon Jun 22 11:42:22
Jergul, Let me ask you this. What specific sanctions have done the most damage? When and why were they placed and what damage have they done?
jergul
large member
Mon Jun 22 11:50:25
http://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/IF10715.pdf

What lessons should be learned? Should the US immediately stop printing money and all other QE measures, and balance its federal budget because Venezuela shows how horrible printing money and deficits are?

Indeed. You should learn that lesson for this completely untainted experiment and contract your economy by 40% immediately.
Habebe
Member
Mon Jun 22 12:03:12
Jergul, Your dodging the questions and deflecting to the US budget/deficit.

This is not about US budgets. If you would like.to discuss the US budget, start a thread, I think you'll find we have a good amou t to agree on there.

However tbis thread is about Venezuela and your repeated umfpumded claims that the US Sanctions caused Venezuela's failure.

Again what specific sanctions CAUSED Venezuela's economic decline?
sam adams
Member
Mon Jun 22 12:23:01
"There are international mechanisms that ensure compensation."

These were violated.

Thus sanctions.
Dakyron
Member
Mon Jun 22 12:53:01
Venezuela has huge oil reserves and yet exports almost no oil right now and cannot refine even enough to meet domestic demand.

Mismanagement, not US sanctions.
Habebe
Member
Mon Jun 22 13:33:07
Also when we talk inflation, remember that Venezuela umder Maduro has surpassed Zimbabwe's hyperinflation.

Staggering obscene amounts. This started simce Maduro took office.
jergul
large member
Mon Jun 22 14:23:53
Sammy
Science fiction.

Daky
US sanctions are directly targeting Venezuelan oil expoorts. It oil is actually pretty close to tar and is demanding to refine.

US sanctions.

Habebe
Remember that Venezuela under US sanctions is suffering from high inflation.

It is not even printing money or deficit spending in amounts close to what the US is, so mismanagement cannot be to blame.

My point is an has always been that US sanctions have put Venezuala where it is.

It would have been in a different, better place without US sanctions.

You cannot break systems then judge them for being broken.

But to be fair, you do that all the fucking time.
Dakyron
Member
Mon Jun 22 14:31:18
Really it started under Hugo Chavez, as he seemed to think the oil boom of the mid-2000s would never end.

Then it ended and he died of cancer, giving Maduro pretty much no chance of ever being successful.
Dakyron
Member
Mon Jun 22 14:35:07
jergul - US oil sanctions started in 2019, years after hyperinflation started.
jergul
large member
Mon Jun 22 14:36:03
The oil boom that ended in 2008 when the US weaponized and globalized its subprime crisis? Yepp, that was not helpful.

US sanctions alone gave Maduro no chance of being successful.
jergul
large member
Mon Jun 22 14:36:57
Daky
I provided a link over US sanctions above. Here it is again:

http://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/IF10715.pdf
Dakyron
Member
Mon Jun 22 14:38:02
Yeah, your link clearly states US oil sanctions started in January of 2019.
jergul
large member
Mon Jun 22 14:43:05
Venezuela has been under sanction since 2006.

Like I have said many times. Stop breaking stuff if you want to say something is broken.

Its like me punching habebe in the face, then calling him a bleeder.
jergul
large member
Mon Jun 22 14:44:08
There are countries with socialist systems that have failed without US meddling. Vietnam in the recent era for example.

Oh, wait.
Dakyron
Member
Mon Jun 22 14:45:40
"Venezuela has been under sanction since 2006. "

INDIVIDUALS within Venezuela had been under sanctions. The oil sector was not. US was the main importer of Venezuelan oil until well into Trump's presidency.

Stop it jergul, you are embarrassing yourself.
jergul
large member
Mon Jun 22 14:54:30
Daky
You are moving the bar. I said sanctions. I also never said Venezuela would be thriving without sanctions.

Political unrest assures that it definitely would not be (now how much of that unrest is sponsored by or encouraged directly by the US is something we will leave for future scholars to consider).

I am saying it would be in a different and better place without US sanctions stretching back to 2006.

Moral of story: Dont break stuff, then say it is broken without acknowledging your contribution to breaking it.

What I find embarrassing is your failure to understand how devastating US sanctions are.

You will never understand why people hate your country until you recognize the harm you can do by weaponizing US dollar status as a global currency.
Dakyron
Member
Mon Jun 22 15:02:57
"Moral of story: Dont break stuff, then say it is broken without acknowledging your contribution to breaking it. "

This would be like walking into an abandoned, long closed store and kicking over a shelf, then jergul comes along and wants you to rebuild the entire store and restock the shelves.

Hugo Chavez went out of his way to alienate the US, and still the US bought their oil. He used fraudulent elections to consolidate power and still the US bought their oil. He refused to be treated for cancer in the US, died of cancer, and Maduro took over with the same anti-US rhetoric. Still, the US bought their oil.

That shithole country did not have significant US sanctions on it until January of last year. By then, it was a shell of its former self.


jergul
large member
Mon Jun 22 15:15:23
Daky
The experiment is tainted. The biggest mistakes are domestic and relate more to excluding the middle class than to anything else.

But US sanctions (and to an undefined extent other forms of meddling. See the CIAs track record in the Americas for a general picture) have made things far, far worse.

It ultimately does not matter much. So Venezuela will lose a generation and worst case emerge as a Cuba with oil.

Venezuela is just a repeat of a pattern the US has done many times before. IF identified as an ideological enemy, THEN kick until it stops moving.

It works, but it is not the way to maintain global dominance.

Too many to kick. Too few feet.
jergul
large member
Mon Jun 22 15:16:19
Worst case would actually be a Nicaragua with oil*
Habebe
Member
Mon Jun 22 16:23:53
Jergul, So are you arguing that US Sanctions are the cause of V. Hyperinflation?

Your going to have to explain that to me, because it makes no sense.

Also are you talking about the oil sanctions in specific? Or the individual sanctions.

I really want to get to the bottom of your argument that V. Was not mismanaged. Because its hogs shit.
jergul
large member
Mon Jun 22 16:49:24
habebe
Learn to fucking read.
Y2A
Member
Mon Jun 22 17:02:03
hyperinflation came much earlier than any sanctions on Venezuela. the fact of the matter is that Venezuela is responsible for it's own problems and the failed leadership is always trying to find a scapegoat.
Y2A
Member
Mon Jun 22 17:03:37
"He used fraudulent elections to consolidate power"

false, the support for Chavez was legitimate.
Paramount
Member
Mon Jun 22 17:36:20
The US has been wanting to invade Venezuela since 1998-2000, ever since Chavez was elected. Because the US hates when other countries elect their own leaders. The oil must be controlled by the US. This is how the US roll. They cheat, they lie, they steal, they are warmongers and killers.
jergul
large member
Mon Jun 22 17:36:58
Y2A
Sanctions began in 2006. Hyperinflation began in 2016.

Venezuela is certainly responsible for the politics that alienated most if not all of its middle class (fuck the upper class).

But the US role cannot be understated in the extent it has made things much worse in the country.
Habebe
Member
Mon Jun 22 17:56:12
Y2a, Yes, Chavez at a certain time was well loved in Venezuela. Mainly by pumping funds made during the oil boom into everything from direct cash pay outs to low income housing etc.

Also a lot of money (36 billion ) came from China. Im not sure how much Russia poured in but it was likley substantial.

So yes your 100% right that Chavez was truly popular.

However I think you would also agree much of his popularity was due to his generous social spending. Thw rest was his Charisma.

The downside was that he started unsustainable spending, at a bad time for oil prices.
Habebe
Member
Mon Jun 22 18:10:12
Jergul, What exactly was sanctioned in 2006? A handful of drug cartel operators?

Inflation has been mounting at 25-30% since 2010ish, probably longer. Couple that with price controls and falling output due to mismanagement of several industries and its a swlf spiral g shitfest that Maduro printed more money to cope with, which would have been fine if it was short term, it was not, so yes V. Would have failed with or without US and EU sanctions.
Habebe
Member
Mon Jun 22 18:32:47
Ok, so as for 2006, all I can find is the US stopped selling Venezuela arms, what seems to be mostly guns and ammo.

This has what effect towards inflation im Venezuela?

Out of all.of the sanctions, the only two that could have had any. Large effect as far as I can see would be not selling them Naptha and embargoing there oil, which neither can explain 10 million % inflation.
jergul
large member
Mon Jun 22 23:08:40
Habebe
That may be because you are sort of a thicky.

The big thing that derailed the bolivian experiment was the US weaponizing and globalizing its subprime crisis. This was not directed at Venezuela exclusively of course.

US sanctions devalue currencies by existing.

Decoupling Venezuela from the international trading system by sanctioning 3rd parties will give high inflation even if Venezuelan economy had not already been under stress.

But since you are playing elstupido.

The US has enacted full sanctions against the Venezuela. Do you think that:

Improves Venezuela's economy
Makes it worse
Or keeps it about the same.
Habebe
Member
Tue Jun 23 10:12:53
I just want clear nom vage answers.

You will say shit like " US Sanctions caused V.'s hyperinflation, these sanctions have been in effect since.2006"

That's intentionally Vague. 2006 sanctions literally meant that they could not buy pistols, ammo, rifles and riot gear from the US.

Now we are not even getting into the why here but just what effect that would have. Which in currency value, extremely little.

What was more an issue was that Maduro was far more inept than even Chavez. Chavez lavishly overspent, and stopped saving money. Im guessing that he thought the oil boom was here to stay and if that was the case his lavish spending in theory could have brought people.oit.of poverty and the new incoming funds would balance it all out, Maduro inherited a tough economic situation. Chavez also nationalized many parts of the economy, which led to steel output for example dropping shaply, this sort of thing leads less supply, and plays into devaluation by several ways.

Maduros's response is to spend more money by printing it, which again in the short term could work but routinely giving Venezuela the worlds.highest inflation. So what do people do? They drop the the bolivar for more.stable. currency, again playing into the effect even more.

At one point he thought he could legally just pin the bolivar at a specific rate.Well it doesnt take an economist to see that it just worsened things even more.

Now you could argue that economic regards are.to blame for severe mismanagement and that communism isnt to.blame. That seems to be a popular response from the left. But you seem to be taking the stance that the US was either a lead.factor or such a large.factor that its unique measurable and "tainted"

Habebe
Member
Tue Jun 23 10:14:09
As for " does it imprive or hurt"

1. Your moving the bar.
2. How.many millions.of.miniscule things hurt say, the US economy... So what.
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