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Utopia Talk / Politics / Herd immunity 3
Seb
Member
Fri Jun 26 08:55:58
So... how are the Trumpitards and COVIDiots feeling about the US handling eh?

Huge spike to new heights, while in Europe the disease per million is greatly reduced and the economy is gradually opening.

Now comes the interesting bit - rich countries open up whole keeping the virus down.





Rugian
Member
Fri Jun 26 08:57:31
Huge spike in cases, no rise in deaths.

Feeling pretty good about it.

jergul
large member
Fri Jun 26 08:59:39
Ruggy
So you are just waiting for the timelapse between becoming sick and dying from it to feel bad?
Seb
Member
Fri Jun 26 09:10:07
Jergul:

To be fair there's some evidence that hospital death rates are coming down on average because:
a. More low risk cases are being hospitalised
b. Fewer critically ill people in hospital are catching it there
c. Hospitals are getting better at managing the diseases


Of course Rugian is not really thinking about the people who get it, don't die, but suffer long term debilitation.

This thing can fuck your lungs up bad enough to need transplants to survive.

Seb
Member
Fri Jun 26 09:12:00
That's not too say of course, that you won't see deaths rising until a few weeks after cases rise.

Still, for the rest of the developed world, I suspect travel restrictions to and from the US will remain in place.

As the US won't quarantine and eradicate, it will be up to the rest of the world to put the US as a whole under quarantine.
jergul
large member
Fri Jun 26 11:03:34
Younger demographic. Since we are being fair.
sam adams
Member
Fri Jun 26 13:05:11
"As the US won't quarantine and eradicate, it will be up to the rest of the world to put the US as a whole under quarantine."

Imagine being so bad at math that you think the "whole world" is stopping coronavirus but the US.

http://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

18
Habebe
Member
Fri Jun 26 13:11:46
Seb, well, I think the US is doing a better job at protecting high risk individuals and we are more prepared. ( ventilators and meds) and know what to expect.

Now all that could be stastically useless. Time will tell. A mix between opening up, the protests and the message these events have sent that there is no threat were likely to increase the spread. Only time will tell how it turns out.
sam adams
Member
Fri Jun 26 13:42:48
You have to love the hypocritical idiocy of seb complaining about lack of quarantine...

... while supporting BLM protests.

At the same time.

23. You are on a roll of stupidity today, huh.
The Children
Member
Fri Jun 26 13:49:34
its gods will that yall breath normally.
its ur fuckin freedumbz and rightz that no men can tell u 2 wear a mask, u fuckin idiots.

http://www...hese_antimaskers_from_florida/

dunt let anyone tell 2 differently.
Seb
Member
Fri Jun 26 14:51:01
Sam:

Developed world.


You are right of course, you have more in common with Brazil than Germany.
Seb
Member
Fri Jun 26 14:52:12
Sam:

Yes, is the BLM protests In Texas and Arizona that are spreading the diseases.

You can't complain about the protests of you've abandoned lock down.
Habebe
Member
Fri Jun 26 15:01:40
Seb, BLM protests still violate basic SD protocols. Those protests are like comparing hiking in the park to a mosh pit.
The Children
Member
Fri Jun 26 15:20:07
http://www...e_karen_didnt_want_to_wear_it/


is some serious violations i seein. shuldve whooped his azz on the spot and teach him some fuckin respect.

them crazies r going haywire right now. he was ready 2 throw da fist 2.



Daemon
Member
Fri Jun 26 16:08:19
On herd immunity

http://www...covid-19-patients-fade-quickly

A new study from China showed that antibodies faded quickly in both asymptomatic and symptomatic COVID-19 patients during convalescence, raising questions about whether the illness leads to any lasting immunity to the virus afterward.
(...)

Seb
Member
Fri Jun 26 16:58:14
Habebe:

Yup, but as I explained previously, probably not as bad as e.g. hundreds of thousands of people using public transport at a month.
Seb
Member
Fri Jun 26 16:59:01
Daemon:

Shit. That's really bad news if turns out to be true.
Seb
Member
Fri Jun 26 17:00:52
Hmmm. Though on a positive note t-cells remain high.
Habebe
Member
Fri Jun 26 17:36:58
Seb, Ues but that's forgetting that public transport has put. Into place things like

1. Limiting passengers to keep distance.

2. Disinfecting buses/trains

Etc. , plus again its the huge spikes that we are trying to avoid so as not to overwhelm hospitals.
Habebe
Member
Fri Jun 26 17:37:51
High t-cells is not a good thing, we all know the story of racoon city.
Pillz
Member
Fri Jun 26 17:55:40
UK still one of the worst deaths per million

Lol seb
Habebe
Member
Fri Jun 26 17:59:04
Pills, Which Seb will ludicrously argue that's a bad measure due to the virus popping up in clusters.
kargen
Member
Fri Jun 26 18:51:41
"Yes, is the BLM protests In Texas and Arizona that are spreading the diseases."

Could be it is just a natural migration of the disease. The mid west and central areas of the United States had very few cases (with some exceptions) when the coastal cities were getting hit hard. The coasts are now on the decline and the inner part of the country is getting its first wave.
Seb
Member
Sat Jun 27 06:16:44
Habebe:

Huge spikes won't be caused by a single protest.

Given the high infection rate of bus drivers etc. where measures have been taken, I'm not sure how effective those really are.

Like I said, a low risk x a long time will be much worse than a high risk for a short time.

If one person in a crowd can infect 30 people say, five nights running in a protest, or 1 person every three days (a factor of 100 difference), after three months it's the same. Only everyone who is infected will go on to spread the disease in the second scenario; whereas only a few of the people infected in the first would be in a position to infect others in the protests.

So persistently raised likelihoods will do more than single events.

This is why you get big outbreaks around metapacking factories: it's not that you go into a meat packing factory and you are highly likely to get infected/infect others, it's just that you are moderately more likely to do so, but over time that's a major problem.

Seb
Member
Sat Jun 27 06:18:05
*typo in the above while I was refactoring, over one night running, not five. I was rejigging to make the maths simpler to illustrate the point.
Pillz
Member
Sat Jun 27 12:18:26
Watching Seb during this corona affair has been spectacular.

The shifts in his reasoning and logic to justify extreme measures and doomsday despite the obvious, steady trend in evidence that contradicts him.

Jergul will hopefully kill himself in January when his predictions are horribly wrong.
Seb
Member
Sat Jun 27 14:32:35
Pillz:

Point to a shift then. But it would be odd not to adjust to new evidence.

Still my main point re economy reopenning is that without public confidence in safety, you will get suppressed demand, waiting for the second spike.

Even if mortality is low, many people find themselves knocked out for a month.

Are they going to rush out and spend now they see Texas etc spiking?

Nope.

So now you get the worst of both worlds: circulating disease, more deaths and a non-v shaped recession.
Pillz
Member
Sat Jun 27 14:47:41
It's not knocking out anybody for a month, Seb.
Pillz
Member
Sat Jun 27 14:51:09
The depressed demand and consumer activity is a consequence of over hysteric media and leftist online disinformation.

Precisely like 'many people find themselves completely knocked out for a month'.

You are an idiot lacking an appreciation of scale or importance, and perpetuating the more insidious and destructive form of pop news culture and knee jerk reactionary ideology.

You and your ilk will be crucified in the aftermath of this in the sphere of academic and public opinion.
Habebe
Member
Sat Jun 27 15:01:28
Seb, These were not singular events. There was like.1-2 weeks of protests consisting of what 50k people give or take.

http://en....into%20the%20following%20week.

NY had 21 straight days of protests.

Ow obviously
Habebe
Member
Sat Jun 27 15:02:10
Now obviously this is not the singular apread of the virus, but odds are it is a large contributor.
jergul
large member
Sat Jun 27 16:15:28
habebe
Interesting. NY has had 21 days of protests? What does it covid numbers look like since the protests began?

Falling steadily Jergul! Correct habebe. An indication that demonstrations may not be highly contagious activities.
Pillz
Member
Sat Jun 27 16:58:46
No, it is a demonstration that the population of NYC has reached herd immunity (or the stupid humid weather is not conducive to transmission)
Habebe
Member
Sat Jun 27 17:03:34
Jergul, Perhaps. Perhaps the numbers would be much better of not for the protets.

Now PA has recently changed trajectory, notably in urban populations that had some of the largest protests.

It is difficult to seperate whether this is to gradual reopenings or the protests, or both.

I could be wrong. As of yet we still lack data.

Seb
Member
Sat Jun 27 18:50:06
Pillz:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019


"The severity of COVID‑19 varies. The disease may take a mild course with few or no symptoms, resembling other common upper respiratory diseases such as the common cold. Mild cases typically recover within two weeks, while those with severe or critical diseases may take three to six weeks to recover. Among those who have died, the time from symptom onset to death has ranged from two to eight weeks.[46]"

Hohum. Pillz talking nonsense again.

"The depressed demand and consumer activity is a consequence of over hysteric media and leftist online disinformation."

Yes, it's all a leftist conspiracy theory.

Media coverage is always going to treat getting a disease as a bad thing. The best way to combat it is to provide a sensible strategy for containing, driving down, and protection the population.

Instead, you have idiots railing that it's all a leftist conspiracy and then wondering why people aren't going out to spend.

They aren't dumb. They can see a second wave coming, and if so there is a liklihood of further economic disruption, possibly being laid off, so they hoard cash.
Seb
Member
Sat Jun 27 18:53:48
Habebe:

That makes little difference in the scheme of things. Vastly more people going to work, hanging around the same people, for much longer periods. And as Jergul pointed out, the biggest virus spikes don't coincide with the biggest protests.

Sports events are worse: more dense, similar number, hanging around the same people for longer.
Many Many more low risk events are worse than a few big high risk events.

Also, protests are outside, and many of the protestors are wearing masks, which helps control spread.

sam adams
Member
Sat Jun 27 19:22:25
Obviously both reducing lockdowns and blm protests both increase covid.

But ending the lockdown has economic purpose, while the protests are just a bunch of purposeless unemployed retards who are bad at math breaking shit.

So naturally seb supports the retarded one while opposing the useful one.
Seb
Member
Sat Jun 27 19:42:44
Sam:

Easing lockdown is quantifiable a bigger contribution to spread if the disease.

Protests to effect political change have a clear purpose.

Attempts to lift lockdown without adequate test and trace are self defeating and will create long term economic damage by fatally undermining public confidence, and therefore worse in ever way: greater transmission risk and likely to damage the economy in the long run more than an extra month of lockdown would.

Only an idiot like Sam would support them.
Seb
Member
Sat Jun 27 19:44:12
If lockdown was continuing, it would be relevant to discuss the impact on covid 19. But as the end of lockdown has a much greater impact on spread, the issue of the protests effect on covid does not arise.
Habebe
Member
Sat Jun 27 20:01:22
Seb,

1. Which of the two incidents is more likley to follow safety protocols?

2. He listed NY. That's it. The largest protests were actually in PA. Which is seeing spikes.

Bottom line, the protests are a high risk activity. As are sporting events and rallies.
sam adams
Member
Sat Jun 27 20:29:07
"Easing lockdown is quantifiable a bigger contribution to spread if the disease."

Coming from the guy that gets his panties in a bunch over a couple police killings while calling tens of thousands of africans murdering themselves irrelevent... i think we can just assume your quantifying is wrong forever and end it there.
sam adams
Member
Sat Jun 27 20:34:42
And even if true, protests certainly cause increased covid. You cry about all sorts of covid controls... Yet you support the protests.

Illogical.
Pillz
Member
Sun Jun 28 00:21:30
Just because you insist on a second wave coming doesn't mean it will. They see what you feed them with your, as you are sugar coating it as, 'leftist conspiracy'.

The majority of people are idiots. And left leaning idiots are amongst the most gullible. They also have a more market impactful presence, due to a variety of factors, most of which underscore the stupidity and overall inadequacy of current consumer and market based economies.

But I digress.

The evidence suggests that ROF is anywhere from 6 to 10 times reported numbers, so let's say just 6 times.

That means the rate of serious complications not resulting in death occur at a rate of what? 1 in 200,000 infected?

And death is, as we know, almost entirely confined to people 70 and up and still mostly the result of health care system failures.

How many tens of thousands of deaths in Europe and North America could have been avoided if adequate procedures had been followed in seniors residences alone?

No. The virus is doing what it does. It's spreading. And while reasonable measures should be taken, and intense effort put into a vaccine or treatment, the scale of what has taken place vastly outweighs the seriousness of the threat.

This is an example of what we should teach in health classes in high school. So that everyone has basic hygiene and infectious disease awareness. They should learn about pandemics and be aware of the possibility of one.

But we can't just halt everything and implement lasting changes to society and normal human behaviours because of a new form of flu every few years.

So while regions of the US are having their first serious outbreaks, to the surprise of nobody who has been paying attention, consumer demand nation wide is depressed despite the lifting of lockdowns because there's been a 3 month media campaign to destroy consumer confidence and prime them for the apocalypse, and it continues to herald a 2nd wave, and meanwhile the economy is actually in severe trouble and people are more concerned about a phantom plague then about the, in all likelihood, brief depression, that is incoming.

And it's incoming because of the hysteria wiped up over nothing that not only destroyed consumer confidence and spending, but took the choice away entirely for however long its been in each place. Here it's been 3 months and now everything is finally reopened, with applicable restrictions.

But by all means Seb, continue to herald the apocalypse as you always do. Whether it be racism or brexit or corona or russia. I'm sure that it will be none of those things, but instead your own stupid ideological manifestations of legislative and social policy finally bearing fruit.





Seb
Member
Sun Jun 28 04:41:52
Sam:

It would be bizarre to call for protests to be cancelled when the marginal risk is low.

And the argument that black on black violence justifies love unjustified police killings is whataboutery.
Seb
Member
Sun Jun 28 05:05:08
"That means the rate of serious complications not resulting in death occur at a rate of what? 1 in 200,000 infected?"

This is a really odd statement.

If IFR is 0.5%, then you expect serious complications to occur at a rate 1000 times lower than the death rate? Ok, I mean, that's ... novel.

Theres stats on recovery times. About 80% of non asymptomatic cases are "mild", you'll feel shit for two weeks, and you will not be traveling to work for two weeks and on average even from home you'll probably lose a week. Like bad flu.

20% then end up with moderate to critical, which can take up to 6 weeks to recover from (though some have long term issues with lung capacity).

They'll not be going to work and probably not be working from home.

Remind me, what's sick pay like in the US? How do you responsibly plan for that? Are you going out spending, out hoarding cash?

I find it utterly bizarre you say that "you will get unnecessary deaths and a bad recession" is the "apocalypse", when your arguments is that if you don't reopen now, you'll have a bad recession.

This strawman fabrication is fallacious and facile.

We are both arguing about the best way to avoid a damaging long term depression.

Your approach is going to cause a massive recession and greatly complicate getting the economy going, and will certainly kill people.

You just don't understand the basics.
Seb
Member
Sun Jun 28 05:39:29
"So while regions of the US are having their first serious outbreaks, to the surprise of nobody who has been paying attention,"

Almost like the US needs national scale track and trace.

Also remember that's exactly what I said would happen, when you and Sam were going on about per-capita infection.

You say I flip flop but the ease with which you reinterpret data always to support your view, taking lower or upper bound estimates rather than central estimates.

So in pursuit of an economically illiterate idea of how to protect the economy.

Pent up demand isn't an issue provided you can sustain companies and workers cashflow

Demand still bounce back due to ask the cash savings accumulated by consuners.

But that means:
1. Serious state funding, probably backed by Central Banks printing money, to sustain this. Unwinding can happen later.

2. Actually getting a grip on the disease so that when you re-open, people are not holding back because of a lack of confidence. Blaming "left wing hysteria" isn't an effective policy. It won't make people go out and spend, and it's the role of the media to report, and what they are reporting on is the abject failure of the govt to do what plenty of other big countries have been able to do.

Simply raging that people should go out and not be worried because the disease isn't that bad when hundreds of thousands have died really isn't going to cut it.

"Don't worry, it might not be you that gets it" and "you'll be fine, just don't see your parents/grand parents", is hardly reassuring.

And even with low fatality, for an individual/family, getting the disease can have a huge impact absent decent sick pay, even if it's likely not to kill you.

So all in all, a spectacular own goal by the US govt. They decided to treat it as a culture war issue because that's all this admin and, increasingly, republicans in general, know how to do. They have mastered the techniques needed to win power, but lost the ability to actually govern competently. This isnt trump, it's a trend for years. Look at healthcare: Obama enacted what a few years previously was the republican version. Republicans knew they need to oppose it to win power, but they had absolutely no idea what to offer in its place.

And here you are, doing the same. Don't deal with reality as it is: that people aren't rushing out to spend because they are concerned, instead shout about how they are idiots for being concerned. That can work to stop people doing something, it rarely works when you need to get them to do something.

Hopefully, America will bounce back quickly: it normally does as it's job market is pretty flexible and resilient.

But this is just staggeringly incompetent politics and administration.
sam adams
Member
Sun Jun 28 11:33:42

"It would be bizarre to call for protests to be cancelled when the marginal risk is low."

Ok.

Now do any number of small businesses and outdoor activity where where the risk is even lower.
Pillz
Member
Sun Jun 28 13:28:47
Businesses and outdoor activities are white privilege. They spread Rona.

Rioting and looting though, that's a wholesome non-rona activity because it's afro American
Seb
Member
Sun Jun 28 14:50:40
Sam:

And that might have been possible to open up if you hadn't fucked everything up by having people do shit like refuse to social distance and not wear masks because Corona virus is a leftist conspiracy; and failed to get in place other ancillary measures like nationally consistent policies and track and trace systems.

As it is you never got the rate low enough that transport was safe across the board, so even opening up workplaces that are safe is a potential issue.

But let's be clear, measured opening of safe business places and activities - that's not what is happening. If it was, you'd not be seeing these huge spikes is Arizona, Texas, Florida etc.

So not only did you never get it uniformly low enough for public transport etc. it to not be a hotbed, because you have unsafe work places opening, that creates vectors that make areas of overlap far less safe.

I love how you think it's all the BLM protests when the areas of biggest protests are not the areas with the biggest spikes.

The problem is far more local policy.




Seb
Member
Sun Jun 28 14:55:41
America is not even back at square 1. It's now in a situation where the virus is endemic to the US and unlike many other countries that are close to eradicating the disease, or getting it to a level that could be contained indefinitely. You stand no prospect of doing that now. You probably do need a lot more local lockdowns now, but that's never going to happen. You are fucked.

So I'm not surprised the usual suspects are trying to make ou



sam adams
Member
Sun Jun 28 16:07:30
And yet our death rate is still half yours. Lol dunce.

24
Seb
Member
Mon Jun 29 01:23:08
Sam:

The fact the disease is growing now as far as it ever was shows Precisely why that statement is meaningless.

Also, everyone knows the UK handled the disease terribly. When your death rate is lower than Germany you would have something to talk about.
jergul
large member
Mon Jun 29 03:11:57
Sammy
You are in a race to the bottom? The UK, US and Sweden should definately share the back seats of a special bus.
Seb
Member
Mon Jun 29 03:41:48
Jergul:

I would argue that the UK has for a while at least been trying to do the right thing, only incredibly incompetently.

Sweden is sticking to it's guns, having been protected by its population density from going the way of the UK.

America has not only shat the bed, it's rolling in it and screaming "look at all this yummy chocolate".
Pillz
Member
Mon Jun 29 05:51:15
Seb is going to claim his account was hacked by Russians when this is over
Seb
Member
Mon Jun 29 06:04:44
Pillz, you just argued that the proportion of people with lasting complications would be a thousand times lower than the proportion of people that would die from it.

jergul
large member
Mon Jun 29 06:50:58
Seb
Trying? Habei just locked down 400 000 people because of 18 cases of covid-19.

That is trying :).
sam adams
Member
Tue Jun 30 00:34:36
"The fact the disease is growing now as far as it ever was shows Precisely why that statement is meaningless. "

You have been screaming that the uk collectivist weenie mindset would prevail since the beginning. 4 months later... despite the US stopping quarantine in large part out of boredom... your death rate is still double ours. Lol. Pure incompetence. Only sebbish bureaucrats could continue to fail worse than a country that has stopped trying.
Pillz
Member
Tue Jun 30 05:38:40
Seb: and well find out. I suspect once we separate deaths due to medical incompetence, long term disability may outweigh deaths.

But as it stands, lol @ you being fucking retarded dip shit.
Seb
Member
Tue Jun 30 11:55:16
Pillz:

So... you expect death rate to come down by a factor of a thousand

Sam:

You idiot. The UK adopted a low activity response: later to shut down than some states and looser restrictions than some states. Why do you keep using it as an example of a sensible approach? The UK approach is the US approach bar a slightly more competent govt but you the defense in depth.
Seb
Member
Tue Jun 30 12:32:44
"your death rate is still double ours. Lol. Pure incompetence."

Thing is, our cumulative death rate is largely from the peak of the crisis, long past in our case.

Logically it will take a long time for the US to overtake the UK in per capita deaths cumulative: the UK being a small country had the virus penetrated a much larger proportion of the country than the US. Put population is also older, so you'd expect all things being equal, a higher death rate.

In terms of how things are standing now:

Your daily death rate over the last week per million is 1.7, as is ours. But it ought to be lower as our population is older. It also ought to be lower because the spread in the UK is worse than the US.

The reason it is the same is that new infections are higher than the UK per capita. Your daily deaths per capita is showing signs of rising, though it may be another few weeks (mean time from test to death is about 2-3 weeks, plus 7 week rolling average adds lag).

But sure, let's see where you are in a few weeks.




Pillz
Member
Tue Jun 30 16:16:28
Lol retard. US has twice the cases per million pop, how's the uk's spread worse?
Pillz
Member
Tue Jun 30 16:17:13
I expected that once we adjust numbers for medical failure, the rate of mortality due to corona is going to be adjusted down to a 3rd
Pillz
Member
Tue Jun 30 16:18:05
Also, 511k deaths globally and more then half way through the year. My million dead estimate looking pretty good
Seb
Member
Tue Jun 30 17:33:10
Pillz:

Less than twice actually, and that's on official confirmed cases. The UK is massively under tested compared to other countries - we only really started getting a mass testing capability last month - so it's likely that on a like-for-like basis we have way more cases per million than the US.

Seroprevelance survey data suggests about 6.8% of the population (4.4m) have had the disease, which would put the UK on 68800 cases per million, way more than the US: about a factor of 10 more.

Similarly, with 43.7k official deaths, and say a range of possible IFRs between 0.5%-1.5% we would expect about 4.4m (as high as 8m as low as 2m) cases, central estimate, which matches the seroprevelance data.

"The rate of mortality due to corona is going to be adjusted down to a 3rd"
Yeah, but the numbers you threw about just now were 3 orders of magnitude, not a third.
Seb
Member
Tue Jun 30 17:35:04
Anyway, I'm sure the US will catch up shortly.
sam adams
Member
Tue Jun 30 19:45:38
"Anyway, I'm sure the US will catch up shortly."

You have said that 30 times over the last 4 months. Do you ever get tired of being wrong?
Seb
Member
Wed Jul 01 01:57:47
Sam:

And you have been.
jergul
large member
Wed Jul 01 04:20:46
Sammy
The only way the US can avoid catching up is by being crap at counting.
Seb
Member
Wed Jul 01 11:46:51
Oh look. Real time data suggests recibos activity now falling in Texas and Arizona.
Like I said, a botched reopenning will hurt the economy.

Great job Dakyron, Pillz, Sam... you killed the US recovery.

http://www...#click=https://t.co/xa5kIJr8TI
sam adams
Member
Wed Jul 01 16:22:25
Not nearly enough to get you past alabama seb.
Dakyron
Member
Wed Jul 01 16:27:50
I have to say, I think Seb would have an aneurysm if he came to Arizona.

Other than wearing masks, life is starting to feel more normal. Vast majority of new cases here are people 20-45, most of whom are doing stupid shit like going to nightclubs. Mask mandates are all over the map, but I would say 75% of people are wearing them.

About 84K cases and roughly 1800 deaths, with over 77% of deaths from people over 65. 85% of hospital beds in use, not counting surge capacity. In a typical year, that number if about 66%. So while there has been a substantial increase, its not like the doomsday scenario where people are being left to die in tents in the parking lot.

Oh, and in deaths per capita, UK is still about twice the rate in the USA. US ranked 9th in the world for deaths per capita, behind 3rd world shitholes like Belgium, France, UK, Spain, and Italy.
Dakyron
Member
Wed Jul 01 16:33:48
" Wed Jul 01 11:46:51
Oh look. Real time data suggests recibos activity now falling in Texas and Arizona.
Like I said, a botched reopenning will hurt the economy.

Great job Dakyron, Pillz, Sam... you killed the US recovery. "

Its behind a paywall, so I did not read it. However, its probably not counting on the fact that it is a gazillion degrees outside. Economic activity in the state normally dies in June/July. Good news is that the state budget deficit for next year is likely to only be something like $700M rather than the $1B originally estimated.

And unlike the nonsensical federal government or shitty democratic states like Illinois, Arizona has a cash reserve in excess of $1B, so combined with the idiotic federal government's COVID-19 aid grants, there should be little impact in government services.
Seb
Member
Thu Jul 02 01:11:18
Dakyron:

Is it meaningful to look at deaths that happened in the UK in April our peak to compare with the US where previously lightly affected being affected now?

Sam:

Still clinging to that even when you posted data showing the UK was actually 30% higher median salary.
sam adams
Member
Thu Jul 02 10:24:49
27.
sam adams
Member
Thu Jul 02 10:27:02
The real number was 10%. Why are you never right seb? There must be some sort of therapy we can send you to that will improve your cognitive skills?
Seb
Member
Thu Jul 02 11:12:41
Alabama 21k

UK, I decided to let you go with £24.4 instead of the £26k I'd previously sourced.

At 2017 rates of 1.289 to the pound, that's a 20% increase and exactly the same as the US median salary overall.

So, yes, off a bit, but the basic point stands: significantly more than Alabama, and much more by 10%. As your own figures showed.

Why keep lying Sam. Just makes you look dumb.
Seb
Member
Thu Jul 02 11:13:53
*Alabama 26k
sam adams
Member
Thu Jul 02 11:41:53
^in the most confused and contradictory fashion, seb posts 2 different figures for alabama within 1 minute.

28



Also note seb tries his hardest to avoid mean income, in which alabama is about 10% higher than the UK. This is a much easier figure to calculate with none of things that confuse seb, yet he ignores it utterly. Lol.

In conclusion, the uk has about a 10% higher median individual income and a 10% lower mean individual income, compared with the poor US state of alabama.

These numbers have been rehashed to the point of utter certainty, and they are now indisputable.

Thanks for playing.

gg
Seb
Member
Thu Jul 02 12:34:20
Sam:

You choose median not me.

You complained bitterly about use of mean.

If Alabama's mean personal income is higher than the UKs, but median personal income is lower, that just shows its got an income profile more similar to a developing country.
Seb
Member
Thu Jul 02 12:38:18
In conclusion, Sam's own figured show the UK has 20% higher median income, which he bizarrely cannot accept and insists is 10%.

He's presented no source, for any of his other claims, and had strenuously advocated for people not to take anything he says seriously without cross checking, going so far as to demand an apology for anyone actually using figures he provides without such checking.

Therefore, he can be ignored.
sam adams
Member
Thu Jul 02 12:50:29
"You choose median not me.

You complained bitterly about use of mean."

Exact opposite of what actually happened.

29
sam adams
Member
Thu Jul 02 12:56:45
And i take it this means you wont object to mean numbers in the future? That you concede the UK is in many ways poorer tham alabama?

Too easy

Lulz.
Seb
Member
Thu Jul 02 13:48:40
Sam, you posted 26k, said it was per capita, and they whined endlessly that "per capita" meant median.
Seb
Member
Thu Jul 02 13:51:02
Produce a mean personal salary with a decent source and link and we can talk about what, of anything, it means.

Until then it's all rather hypothetical given you can't even tell the difference between 10% and 20% and hysterically demand an apology for taking numbers you post as a given.
TJ
Member
Thu Jul 02 15:11:38
Neglecting PPP(purchasing power parity) between the two provides a distorted view.
sam adams
Member
Thu Jul 02 15:23:41
"Until then it's all rather hypothetical given you can't even tell the difference between 10% and 20%"

So this is an admission on your part that the 100% difference you had claimed for months is a mistake right?

Lulz.
Pillz
Member
Thu Jul 02 16:33:11
Sam was discussing mean.
Seb went on a week long losing streak ranting about median.

TJ
Member
Thu Jul 02 17:49:03
True they have been disagreeing over mean, median, and per capita.

It isn't the real rub though and a distraction. I've been leisurely following since the dispute began with little interest. And that interest doesn't exceed beyond my previous post and this one as a last post.
Seb
Member
Thu Jul 02 18:21:40
Pillz:

Other way around. Sam posted a figure he described as "per capita" and then spent months complaining that "per capita" meant median when I posted the UK mean figure (which is higher than the Alabama Median) only the UK Median figure is higher too.

TJ:

That's what I said, but Sam rejected it out of hand.

Sam:
"So this is an admission on your part that the 100% difference you had claimed for months is a mistake right?"

1. Actually, if you go back, I did say 20% on your figures. I only said 30% now through simple lapse in memory.

2. 30% is 50% higher than 20%, not 100%. 20% is 100% increase on 10% though. Freudian slip?

3. Given you said it was less "less than" and then "in line with", then posted figures showing UK to be 20% higher, and the claimed those figures showed it was only 10% higher, I hardly think you are on very strong grounds.

You've cited figures incorrectly, without source, tried to claim GNI is a measure of personal income, pulled other figure out of your arse, repeatedly post calculated numbers that, based on your own numbers, are demonstrably false, and then moaned relentlessly, and fundamentally you are wrong. UK personal income is higher than Alabama's.

Get over it. Let it go. You fucked up.
Seb
Member
Thu Jul 02 18:22:42
Pillz/Dakyron:

So I see deaths are up 50% and 300% in Texas and Arizona since the beginning of June.

Great work chaps.
sam adams
Member
Thu Jul 02 19:41:49

"2. 30% is 50% higher than 20%, not 100%. 20% is 100% increase on 10% though. Freudian slip?"

For four months you confused mean with median, and thought the uk had nearly 100% higher individual income than alabama.

Now you are down to 20%. You are very slowly comming close to the actual number, though the ponderous momentum of your stupidity makes any learning on your part desperately slow.

In reality, the uk is 10% richer to 10% poorer than alabama, depending on the exact flavor of the stats...

Lol

Wait update:
Seb has been so slow to learn that the economic stats have updated for the latest year. In the easy and hard to confuse metric(even for seb) "gdp/population" the uk has now fallen to 15% behind alabama:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_between_U.S._states_and_sovereign_states_by_GDP_per_capita

sam adams
Member
Thu Jul 02 20:00:08
Since seb is bad at math and cant compare different sources successfully, lets just use the convienent wiki link that puts them all in the same place. Even seb can read numbers off a list, right?

http://en....reign_states_by_GDP_per_capita


59 Alabama 47,735
69 United Kingdom 41,030

Rofl. 15% poorer than alabama.
sam adams
Member
Thu Jul 02 20:01:29
We have a number of states that are double the UK.

Lol!
Habebe
Member
Thu Jul 02 21:19:05
I don't see what the big argument here is.

Alabama-50k (USD)

UK- 30k (BP) so about 43k (USD)

This is going by quickly googled median income stats and rounding to the nearest 1k.

Also I used 1 BP as = 1.25 USD.

What am I missing?
Habebe
Member
Thu Jul 02 21:38:59
Now im not here to argue who os poorer. Because income for example doesn't explakn thw whole story.

For example I grew up in both Bucks and Montgomery County PA.

On paper, it may seem that Montgomery is a wealthy area, but tbh no one would rather live in Montgomery.

Bucks County is more "old money" while Montgomery is much more ghetto.

In bucks County I lived in Perkasie and Doylestown. In Montgomery I lived in Collegeville and Pottstown.

On paper Collegeville is wealthy, I don't know how there is no way if you walk around Collegeville and say Doylestown that Collegeville seems better off.

Doylestown is like a small city filled with rich white people and east Asians. Its actually really nice, Perkasie is similar but less urban.

Collegeville is like the nicer part of a shitty area, the college's and medical offices are probably the only reason it's nice at all really.

Seriously Doylestown is the way a city should be.
Pillz
Member
Thu Jul 02 22:06:42
Seb - that makes perfect sense since arizona and Texas didn't get hit at all before June dumbass
Seb
Member
Fri Jul 03 02:36:35
Sam:

Nonsense. You corrected yourself in the first thread and stated you meant "median", but refused to accept for months that they the £21k was not the median UK income and a few weeks ago, when you finally produced a source, discovered it was in fact £24.4k GBP which is markedly higher, 20% higher in fact, though you bizarrely insist only 10% so.

Very simple numbers Sam. Those are the numbers you yourself provided.

And now you are back to GDP per capita again, when your original metric was individuals.

But the UK is a bigger and more diverse economy than any single US state.

Once you start carving units up, well, you can find London (GDP 650 BN USD, population 9m, 2018 figures) has GDP per capita 72k.

But subdividing GDP by region in a highly integrated economy to work out "how rich" reach area is, is somewhat artificial.

E.g. you take all the low skilled agricultural workers needed in an economy and remove them from the analysis, and end up dividing a lot of concentrated commercial activity by a much smaller population, in a way that could not happen if each state was fully independent with less integration. Similarly, an area that's, e.g., full of extractive industries, will appear to be really rich even though the people are dirt poor because a lot of industrial investment occurs there.

Truth is then: as UK median salary, at least in the year you picked data for, is the same as us median salary, most US residents have about the same income.

Higher mean salaries, if they exist, are heavily skewed by a few super rich (again, London would produce similarly skewed figures).

Higher US GDP just reflects bigger corporates, not necessarily individual wealth.

But fundamentally, you were the one that posted median Alabama personal income as 26k, and what you incorrectly thought to be UK median personal income (21k), and then whined because I read "per capita" to be mean & pointed out UK mean salary was much higher, because you had intended you post to say "median per capita"; something resolved in the initial thread. Not months.

Truth of the matter is though, even on the specific metric you posted, UK median income was 20% higher than Alabama.

And now you are using entirely different metrics because you've finally realised you were wrong.

Which kinda encapsulates your view of data: ammunition to be forced into whatever shape to support whatever bullshit you are saying today rather than evidence to inform your views.

It's really quite sad.

This subject really has been utterly exhausted. But if you do want to keep bringing it up, I'm quite happy to have this conversation literally forever to see who gets bored first.

Seb
Member
Fri Jul 03 02:40:12
Habebe:

Statistical definitions. Think you might be looking at median household disposable income which has a whole bunch of non comparable factors in.

Sam didn't like looking at median salary because he thought UK unemployment would be really high. Unfortunately he forgot pensioners get income.
Nekran
Member
Fri Jul 03 08:49:50
"£21k was not the median UK income and a few weeks ago, when you finally produced a source, discovered it was in fact £24.4k GBP which is markedly higher, 20% higher in fact, though you bizarrely insist only 10% so."

And the truth at 16% is pretty much in the middle... very strange to make about the same margin of error as Sam did when you're pointing out his error.

"This subject really has been utterly exhausted. But if you do want to keep bringing it up, I'm quite happy to have this conversation literally forever to see who gets bored first."

The rest of UP definitely got bored first.
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