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Utopia Talk / Politics / Dakyron is still wrong
Seb
Member
Fri Jul 31 11:38:49
Dakyron, you are the one that suggested to look at this data series.

The apparent downwards trend of two weeks ago is now revealed to not be a downwards trend at all.

So why should we believe that the apparent downwards trend over the last few days is real and not also an artefact of the methodology, a warning of which is on the actual graph itself, and which you yourself have raised several times?
sam adams
Member
Fri Jul 31 12:09:11
It is worth noting that seb is almost always wrong and never admits it or learns from his mistakes.
Seb
Member
Fri Jul 31 13:36:19
Sam, you spent six months arguing that UK median personal income was £21k and lower than Alabama's when it was actually equal to US median income and 20% higher than Alabama's, and you've still not accepted that.

I admit when I'm wrong. I'm just not often wrong, because I actually check sources before I post and will provide them when needed. Unlike you. At least Dakyron tries, you just bullshit.
sam adams
Member
Fri Jul 31 14:03:23
Seb didnt know that mean and median were different.

Game over man, game over.
hood
Member
Fri Jul 31 14:04:59
Apparently autism is contagious.
Dakyron
Member
Fri Jul 31 14:42:00
"The apparent downwards trend of two weeks ago is now revealed to not be a downwards trend at all. "

This is factually incorrect, for the 1,000,000th time.

Anyway, in more important news...

"Arizona saw far more deaths this June than a typical June in previous years, and well beyond the official counts for COVID-19 deaths.

In June 2020, the Arizona Department of Health Services statistics show 6,265 people died. Last June, it was 4,689. This year's total is higher, by far, than any of the past five years.

The health department's chart of COVID-19 deaths by date shows 952 deaths attributed to the disease in June, which is far fewer than the increased number of deaths overall in June. July's COVID-19 death numbers so far are higher than June's."

Looks to be ~700 people, non-covid related, that died in excess of last year. Some of those will turn out to be covid, but probably not anywhere close to 700.

Link(behind paywall)
http://www...just-covid-19-more/5530215002/
Seb
Member
Fri Jul 31 17:36:39
Sam:

Seb didn't know that when Sam said "per capita" Sam actually meant "median per capita", which was unsurprising given he cited a figure that was neither the mean nor the median, but in fact entirely invented.

Dakyron:

On the 17th, you said that there was a sharp downwards trend in deaths per day, and it had reached mid April levels.

How is that remotely condistent with daily deaths for the preceding five days being above 60, when the highest number in the entire of April was 27?

You keep saying this is factually incorrect, but the numbers are staring anyone who chooses to go here:

http://www.../covid-19/dashboards/index.php


You say it's factually incorrect, ok, describe then the pattern of deaths from say beginning of June to 17th July, when you made your claim there was a downward trend.
sam adams
Member
Fri Jul 31 20:38:21
^got confused by mean and median.
sam adams
Member
Fri Jul 31 20:40:06
Also let the record show that arizona cases are certainly trending down. Are basic trends confusing seb now?
sam adams
Member
Fri Jul 31 20:42:32
Uk cases are starting to tick back up. More lockdown for you. Wasnt it 8 more weeks to solve everything? Like 28 weeks ago? Lol.
Pillz
Member
Fri Jul 31 21:14:30
Inb4 remake of 28 days later featuring the streets of London during corona
Seb
Member
Sat Aug 01 01:17:33
Sam:

Uk lockdown was effectively lifted well before the 8 day period (cf VE day), track and trace still isn't working effectively, they failed to deliver the app (partly thanks to Apple), so I think that rather proves my point rather than countering it. If you don't get control measures in place, lifting lockdown results in national spread and the loss in public confidence is as bad as lockdown from an economic perspective.

"Also let the record show that arizona cases"

Irrelevant. Dakyron said specifically to look at this metric, and that this metric was trending down. As we can see, at the time he said it, it was not. Cases trending down are likely to be driven by voluntary lockdown like behaviour, resulting in depressed economic activity. Which I said would be the likely outcome.
Seb
Member
Sat Aug 01 01:18:26
Sam can't read a graph or he can't read a sentence. Or, why not, both.
Dakyron
Member
Sat Aug 01 21:07:36
Its not that hard of a concept. Following July 17th, deaths per day have been going down. Deaths typically lag 10 days, so we should have accurate data going back to July 21st.

Anyway, as Sam stated, the trend is downward for every metric that matters, despite no lockdown.

THAT is the point. You were 100% wrong about needing another 16 weeks of total lockdown.

"You say it's factually incorrect, ok, describe then the pattern of deaths from say beginning of June to 17th July, when you made your claim there was a downward trend. "

Cases spiked in mid-late June and early July, causing a smaller increase in deaths in early to mid July, before a downward trend took over.

Its not that complicated.
Seb
Member
Sun Aug 02 04:40:24
Dakyron:

Except that since the 17th when you posted, the number of deaths on the 17th has gone fromBeing under 20 to over 60.

When you said on the 17th it had peaked on the 7th, it now peaks on the 15th.

The lag is clearly a lot more than 10 days as the tally for the 7th, 10 days prior to the 17th, increased by 10% in the next 10 days to the 27th. Further, if the lag is 10 days, then on the 17th to declare a downward trend from the 7th was clearly incorrect as you yourself now admit the 10 day data is incomplete.

In short, this is a dog's dinner of a data series.

You've gone from "no way the diseases could spread here due to density and sun" to "it's spreading here but there are no deaths" to "yes, there are clearly going to be deaths but only people who are going to die anyway" to "well new infections are falling now", but it's going to be quite obvious that the reason that's falling now is because people are behaving in a way a lockdown would require. The result: deaths, continued spread, and economic impact.

Such incompetence.
Rugian
Member
Sun Aug 02 04:51:40
"The result: deaths, continued spread, and economic impact."

How's the eurozone doing? That was, what, 40% annualized contraction for the second quarter?
Seb
Member
Sun Aug 02 06:21:47
Rugian:

Yes, but more likely to be a v shaped recession if they can convince the population that the disease is in check; plus the countercyclical economic innervations that kept people in jobs & income means they are starting from a position where there's far lower risk of a demand led recession (something the US right wing orthodoxy can't even compute as a phenomenon as all demand is trickle down in the oversimplification of Chicago school economics it has adopted as a creed).

I think the Eurozone is likely to rebound faster, despite brexit, than the US. Baring in mind that Germany was having problems before the virus hit.
Seb
Member
Sun Aug 02 08:06:11
And the latest data is in, the peak is now definitely the 15th, with 82 deaths.

So saying definitely on the 17th that the deaths were now "at mid April levels" having peaked on the 7th at 73 looks rather stupid?
Seb
Member
Sun Aug 02 08:11:06
Hospitalisation graph carries the rather interesting stat: 60% of confirmed covid patients (which can have at least
10* day lead) do not have complete hospitalisation data.

*Likely more but you accept 10 days so let's go with 10.

So this data could be affected by the same data matching lag.
sam adams
Member
Sun Aug 02 12:28:25
So the uk bungled its response... just like we said you would.

Lol another failure of seb. The list goes on and on.
Seb
Member
Sun Aug 02 12:59:11
Sam, I've been clear that the UK bungled its response, which has been only marginally better than the US, but basically the same pattern of crack handed attempts to preserve the economy without earning the confidence.

Only an absolute fucking idiot would have failed to understand that, so naturally it comes as no surprise that you believe I'm championing the UK approach.
sam adams
Member
Sun Aug 02 14:07:57
"which has been only marginally better than the US"

Fact check: The UK death rate remains higher than the US death rate, despite the US not even trying for the last few months.

Seb notches another abominably stupid point.

42.

"that you believe I'm championing the UK approach."

No one thinks that you like how this turned out. We are simply laughing at you because you failed.
Seb
Member
Sun Aug 02 14:14:06
Current UK daily death rate is 0.9/m
Current US daily death rate is 3.4/m

UK let the disease spread for nearly as long a period of time as the US did before enacting measurers. As the UK is smaller, that meant it reached a larger portion of the population.

But the US let the disease spread longer, never developed a national strategy, and now has a second spike, which the UK has not yet had.

As a result, the US daily death rate is over three times higher than the UK on a per capita basis, as that's Sam's preferred measure. Ergo, the US is handling the virus worse than the UK.


Seb
Member
Sun Aug 02 14:15:23
Sam:

Boris failed, because he didn't do the things I'd have done. Germany, which did, is doing much better.

America is basically turning into a failed state at this point.
sam adams
Member
Sun Aug 02 14:22:02
No one would have listened to you seb, as you are almost always wrong, never admit your errors and never learn. As such, no one would possibly trust you. Furthermore your wishful thinking hindsite is not what you would have done at the time, as your extensive record of wrong indicates.

Oh ya and : UK overall death rate currently stands at 680 dead per million people. The US is at 450. Wrong again. Lol loser.
Dakyron
Member
Sun Aug 02 14:42:38
Seb - Yes or no - COVID-19 pandemic is currently trending down in Arizona?

Only a completely stupid, useless pandering hacky fuck would say no.
Seb
Member
Sun Aug 02 15:13:53
Sam:

That's cumulative dead per million. If you really like, you could say that the UK handled the first peak worse than the US. I don't think that is reasonable for the objective reasons I've stated, and indeed the continued spread of the disease in the US demonstrates why per-capita rates are a dumb normalisation. But the US has a second peak, as I said it would, and now has 3 times as many daily deaths per million than the UK, and that rate is rising. In the UK the rate is currently steady. So at this point in time, it is clear that the US is doing worse. A lot worse.

Dakyron:

I'm not currently sure, given the deficiencies in your data, we can actually tell anything beyond 15 days ago. At that point I would say it was plateauing after a sharp rise.

But if 60% of covid patients hospitalisation status as it stands remains unknown, as your dashboard clearly states, that means that the number of hospialisations could in extremis be over twice what the current figure shows.

Only a stupid, useless, pandering hacky fuck would insist on over-extrapolating a data series that is plastered with caveats. I'm looking at you Daky.
sam adams
Member
Sun Aug 02 15:16:58
Seb cant ever admit to his mistakes, and always has some whiny, incorrect excuse.
Seb
Member
Sun Aug 02 15:54:29
Yes Sam, it sucks for you that reality keeps providing a factual basis for my position.
0.9 daily deaths per million vs 3.4 daily deaths per million. Sam naturally thinks 0.9 is worse.
Pillz
Member
Sun Aug 02 16:32:46
Roflmao @ Seb saying the US is a failed state
Seb
Member
Sun Aug 02 16:52:05
pillz:

Turning into one. Mass protests, rigged ballots, a president threatening to postpone elections, secret police snatching people off the street, failure to get a grip on the pandemic... the dollar falling against the pound, even as Britain fucks up pandemic response and careers towards
a collapse in economic relations with its main trading partner.

America looks more like Brazil or Argentina than Germany doesn't it.
sam adams
Member
Sun Aug 02 18:52:18
Seb wants to ignore the entire beginning of the disease cause it makes him look bad.

Its like losing 47-3 and being like "well we outscored you by 3 points in the fourth quarter so we are winning"

43
sam adams
Member
Sun Aug 02 18:57:54
"America looks more like Brazil or Argentina than Germany doesn't it."

Its funny watching seb try to talk shit about the US, when the UK is poorer than even our shitholes. Like, maybe you want to outperform alabama before speaking at the adult table.
obaminated
Member
Sun Aug 02 20:49:14
Seb took a pounding in this thread. He is actually saying the us is going to be a failed state. Homie, your country literally locked up a teenager for saying racist shit online. Fix your shitty house before you make comments on our mansion.
Seb
Member
Mon Aug 03 01:42:14
Sam:

It's not a game though, with a neat cut off time and accumulating points and a winner. Those are your own people you are getting killed (over 1000 a day, and rising). 3.4 per million.

You are doing worse than any other country in the developed world right now.

Obaminated:
Your president is trying to ban social media apps because people post mean things about him, and has unmarked paramilitaries lock people up (that's what we are calling arrest now?) without any probable cause.

Pillz
Member
Mon Aug 03 06:12:21
UK, France, Germany all also have annual summer riots.

There is no secret police.

And the pandemic is a tough flu season for the US, nothing more.

Youre absolutely retarded
Seb
Member
Mon Aug 03 07:54:59
Pillz:

1. No they don't, and none as prolonged, violent and broad spread as these.

2. Really, so where are their badge numbers and identifiers?

3. Name a seasonal flu outbreak that killed this many Americans.



Pillz
Member
Mon Aug 03 10:14:11
1) you're in denial
2) cry me a river
3) you're retarded
Dakyron
Member
Mon Aug 03 10:47:19
"3. Name a seasonal flu outbreak that killed this many Americans. "

1918. Pillz is also retarded, but that doesn't excuse you from refusing to admit that an alternate strategy to complete economic destruction could have worked/is working now.
hood
Member
Mon Aug 03 10:54:57
1918 wasn't a seasonal flu outbreak though. Seasonal implies recurring, or regularly expected. Spanish flu was not at all recurring or expected.

The seasonal flu kills ~25k-40k with very little effort to combat it. COVID has killed 160k with significant efforts to contain its spread. Without contain, you can easily triple the number of dead, possibly even just add a zero.
Seb
Member
Mon Aug 03 11:28:51
Pillz:
1. Do you know what anual means?
2. & 3. I accept your concession.

Dakyron:
RE Flu: What hood said.
I've already outlined what a sensible strategy should have been:

Lock down early, put in place a national strategy around mass testing, contact tracing, don't take shit from Apple and Google and get an app that actually works. Re-open in phases.

During lock down, use subsidised furlough scheme to pay inactive workers some percentage (say 80% to a cap) and mix of grants/loans to icebox the economy and fund prep work for safe reopening.

Ideally fiscal measures coordinated internationally using IMF or some of other international vehicle to mutualise debt corresponding to the injected liquidity, or just nationally ... Boo boo to asset owners who suffer a small dip in the value of assets due to inflationary effect of the increased liquidity.

When infection levels are low enough for national test and trace capacity to handle (will vary by country, in UK I estimated around 100 - 1000 cases a day, hence my 6-8 week estimate a week before the UK began opening up), begin phased re-opening.

This would not have been complete economic destruction. This would have seen a V shaped contraction that might even not have qualified as a recession (two successive quarters of negative growth) if done right.

Especially when the alternative is just to let the disease spread until people lock themselves down and hoard cash due to uncertainty.

Dakyron
Member
Mon Aug 03 11:37:54
"Lock down early, put in place a national strategy around mass testing, contact tracing, don't take shit from Apple and Google and get an app that actually works. Re-open in phases. "

Again... the fact that a ban on large gatherings plus mandatory masks is working the contain COVID-19... this upsets you? Why do you refuse to see the truth?

"During lock down, use subsidised furlough scheme to pay inactive workers some percentage (say 80% to a cap) and mix of grants/loans to icebox the economy and fund prep work for safe reopening."

Meanwhile, food and other shortages become rampant during the 18 week shutdown. Besides, there was an early shutdown here, but without the mask mandates and enforced no large parties rule, it ended up being a waste of time.

"This would not have been complete economic destruction. This would have seen a V shaped contraction that might even not have qualified as a recession (two successive quarters of negative growth) if done right. "

For a state that relies on sales tax, this would have been an absolute disaster to get no income for 18 weeks.
Seb
Member
Mon Aug 03 13:39:21
Dakyron:

It isn't working - your rate of infection and death rate have gone way up, making everything more dangerous.

If you had locked down initially, and put in place track and trace at a national level, you would be in a position where you could have mandatory masks and ban on mass gatherings - as is the case in much of Europe for weeks now, with much lower infection rates and deaths.

The fact you didn't lock down properly initially to get the disease rates low nationally, and didn't put in place measures to control spread when you released lockdown, is precisely why when you have similar policies to the rest of the developed world leaving lockdown, you are getting back to the same levels you had before, whereas everyone else is getting localised spikes but overall much lower spread of the disease.

"Meanwhile, food and other shortages become rampant"
They didn't anywhere else, bar the first two weeks which were mostly stockpiling and supply chain disruption. This isn't a real risk.

"but without the mask mandates and enforced no large parties rule, it ended up being a waste of time."
Because it wasn't enforced, it wasn't national, and there isn't a national means to do track and trace. So in areas where there was no lock down, or high rates of non-compliance, the disease spread, and can re-infect places that have kept incidence low.

You only need to look at a graph of daily infections and daily deaths to see the US is a massive outlier in all the big developed countries.
Your policy has delivered both a massive blow to the economy, a much larger public health impact, and will probably now blight your recovery as you will have a lot of people worrying about the prospect of future lockdowns or the possibility of loosing a weeks of work if they get a mild case (and we know from previous studies much of the US population can't handle the financial impact of a few weeks of lost wage), so they will hoard cash and reduce expenditures, leading to a classic demand led recession.

As i said weeks ago.

This policy was always an obvious lose-lose from people who understand neither public health nor economics.

Dakyron
Member
Mon Aug 03 15:17:36
"It isn't working - your rate of infection and death rate have gone way up, making everything more dangerous. "

Goddamnit. This is NOT true. For the last fucking time. It is NOT true. It is not going up. It is going down. There is empirical fucking data to support this.

"If you had locked down initially "

We did, you dumb fuck, as has been stated many times. There was a stay-at-home order in place from about March 31st through sometime in mid-May.

"You only need to look at a graph of daily infections and daily deaths to see the US is a massive outlier in all the big developed countries. "

Also not goddamn true. The US STILL, even with its shitty response in most of the southern states, has a lower per-capita death rate than several EU countries that had full-on lockdowns for months.
Dakyron
Member
Mon Aug 03 15:18:21
You are dense and stubborn.

Even Nimatzo's chihuahua is nodding his head reading this, thinking "that seb sure is stupid".
Seb
Member
Mon Aug 03 15:34:56
Dakyron:

"Goddamnit. This is NOT true. For the last fucking time. It is NOT true. It is not going up. It is going down. There is empirical fucking data to support this."

You yourself have pointed out what your Arizona data is only accurate to at least more than 15 days ago, and 15 days ago there isn't a strong case for saying there is a decline.

"We did, you dumb fuck, as has been stated many times. There was a stay-at-home order in place from about March 31st through sometime in mid-May."

Poorly enforced, on a state by state basis, with variations.

"The US STILL, even with its shitty response in most of the southern states, has a lower per-capita death rate than several EU countries that had full-on lockdowns for months."

Simply not true. You are looking at cumulative deaths, not death rate. Which is to say "A smaller proportion of our overall population died initially, because we are a bigger country geographically than some bits of Europe". On a like for like basis, your initial clusters were on the same scale in deaths per million than European hot spots, and right now, your daily deaths and daily new infections per million are higher than anywhere in Europe.

This is like a man falling off a cliff shouting down to a man holding onto a branch saying "Ha, I am not falling, because right now I am higher than you are"


Dakyron
Member
Mon Aug 03 15:45:52
I said 10 days, but whatever, lets go with 15. 15 days ago was July 19th.

June 29th - July 3rd, there were over 5,000 cases each day. Since July 15th, there has not been a day over 3,000, with a high on July 20th of barely over 2K.

Thanks for playing.



Dakyron
Member
Mon Aug 03 15:50:24
http://www...pitalizations-drop/5572220002/

Arizona reported just more than 1,000 new COVID-19 cases Monday as hospitalizations steadily drop, continuing gradually improving trends seen over the past two to three weeks.

Inpatient hospitalizations, ICU beds in use, ventilators in use and emergency department visits by suspected and confirmed COVID-19 patients all continued downward trends on Sunday, according to hospital data reported to the state.
Seb
Member
Mon Aug 03 16:06:33
Dakyron:

You said 10, but we'v actually seen that the numbers for deaths on the 7/7 rise until well over 20 days, so your 10 isn't worth shit.

The hospitilsation data carries a disclaimer that 60% of covid confirmed individuals do not have hospitalisation status recorded. That makes hospitalisation data dodgy too.

I'm sorry Dakyron, the data is crap. You yourself said "look at the deaths" and it turned out after waiting a few days that the trends you observed then evaporated as data for well over 10 days prior was updated.

So, no, I don't think that data tells you much, it's full of artefacts and get progressively worse with systemic under-counting the closer to the present you get.

Give it a few another week or so and we can look again, but right now, that's not empirical evidence.

And in any case, even if lower than a peak, it is still much much higher than during lockdown, and much much higher than most of Europe that have approaches that now amount to bans on mass atherings and requirement for wearing facemasks; so even if it is lower than the peak reached in July, it's still pretty obviously not fucking working.



sam adams
Member
Mon Aug 03 20:30:00
Its worth mentioning:

UK corona deaths per capita are still more than twice as high as Alabama.

Lol.
Dakyron
Member
Tue Aug 04 10:45:25
"The hospitilsation data carries a disclaimer that 60% of covid confirmed individuals do not have hospitalisation status recorded. That makes hospitalisation data dodgy too."

Maybe for a day here or there, but you can see long term trends even with limited data.
Seb
Member
Tue Aug 04 10:58:11
Dakyron:

Unless 60% of covid confirmed patients were confirmed only in the odd day here or there, no. The fact is the hospitalisation data covers only 40% of the possible hospitalisations. That's a very weak signal. In all likelihood, it's the most recent data that's not patchy as the matching is still ongoing. I.e. the same deficiency that took the 15th of July from being "at the level of mid April" to "oh, actually it's the largest single day death toll" over the course of 10-15 days of updates to the data set.

Dakyron, you need to accept the clearly stated limits of the data! You are cargo culting it now - like Pacific tribesman laying out rows of tiki lights to try and make the big iron bird come to deliver cargo.

Dakyron
Member
Tue Aug 04 11:23:36
Yes, yes, yes... we know. Everyone is wrong except for you. Only you can see through to find the real data, or some shit.

It doesn't matter that hospitalization rates are also down. Short of me touring local hospitals and filming the ERs, not sure what else I can do to show you the truth. Now, why don't you move to Melbourne and enjoy some hard core authoritarianism.
Seb
Member
Tue Aug 04 13:55:08
Dakyron:

They literally write the disclaimer directly below the graphs, and the simple act of waiting a few days let's you see the magnitude of the change.

The issue isn't that I'm some kind of clairvoyant, the issue is why can you not see what is literally staring you in the face, in grey on white, written by the people publishing the data.

Pillz
Member
Tue Aug 04 16:28:39
The issue is that you're handicapped
Dakyron
Member
Tue Aug 04 16:37:51
"The issue isn't that I'm some kind of clairvoyant"

Definitely not.
Seb
Member
Tue Aug 04 16:39:42
Pillz/Dakyron:

I don't really know what to tell you... when the graph has a disclaimer on the bottom saying "This data is incomplete" and actively tells you it contains less than half the possible data points...
Dakyron
Member
Tue Aug 04 16:42:06
And the other data....? Its all wrong?
Seb
Member
Tue Aug 04 17:10:32
*sigh*

Talk about moving goal posts...

Cut the crap Daky, there is no data that doesn't show a rise and then markedly higher levels than during lockdown.

The idea you have got the same results as lockdown from a mask mandate and ban on gatherings just isn't correct.

Sustained low levels with those measures have been achieved elsewhere, and could have been achieved in the US if you had suppressed the disease nationally to the the necessary level. But you didn't do so at a national level, so the level of people circulating as carriers is too high. That is why you saw the large rise over June and July.

And part of the reason you are seeing any decline now (not to mid April levels but perhaps somewhat reduced) is very likely due to people voluntarily adopting lockdown like behaviours.

Which has the same impact on the economy whether official policy or not.

You've swapped a manageable and controllable economic problem and a managed public health problem for negligible economic benefit, risk of a complete loss of consumer confidence, while eroding the safety margin in health care capacity as seasonal flu season rolls in.

In no way does this look like a success.


Dakyron
Member
Tue Aug 04 17:21:06
"Cut the crap Daky, there is no data that doesn't show a rise and then markedly higher levels than during lockdown. "

Never argued this. Argued that once the lockdown ended, there was virtually no restrictions on what people could do. This caused the spike, and then basic safety was mandated(masks, no large gatherings, no gyms/bars/nightclubs/water parks). Two weeks later, the cases started going down and currently at like 1K per day, from the peak of almost 5K.

Revealing the truth that a complete lockdown was never necessary. You seem unable to handle this truth.

"That is why you saw the large rise over June and July. "

No. It was people locked up in their homes for two months while there were virtually no cases in the state deciding to just go crazy when the lockdown ended. This combined with travelers from other states (Oregon, Washington, CA) visiting on "vacation" because AZ was open.

Dakyron
Member
Tue Aug 04 17:21:24
"And part of the reason you are seeing any decline now (not to mid April levels but perhaps somewhat reduced) is very likely due to people voluntarily adopting lockdown like behaviours. "

I live here. This is not the case.
Seb
Member
Tue Aug 04 17:31:34
No offence, but you don't seem to be able to digest the clearly spelled out caveats on the graphs themselves when it runs counter to your line of reasoning. People are generally extremely poor at accurately quantifying the size of crowds even before confirmation bias kicks in, would you be able to notice a 20% reduction in footfall, say?

Pretty sure that sort of data will become available in retrospect.

Either way, there is nothing in the data here that shows that skipping straight to Mask Mandate and Gathering Ban is a viable alternative to lockdown, and the fact you've had such a large spike moving to policies that have been adopted in much of Europe that have avoided such large second spikes just proves my point: you need to earn the condition to lift lockdown during lockdown - which is the whole point of lockdown in the first place.

I know you've been telling yourself endlessly that I support and advocate endless lockdown, but I've been explicit all along that is not the case.
Dakyron
Member
Mon Aug 10 10:39:25
"I know you've been telling yourself endlessly that I support and advocate endless lockdown, but I've been explicit all along that is not the case. "

You called for a 24 week total lockdown, which is incredulous!

Anyway...

http://kta...ronavirus-cases-4-more-deaths/

PHOENIX – Arizona health authorities reported 600 new coronavirus cases and four additional deaths on Monday morning as the state’s numbers continue trending downward.

That brought the state’s documented totals to 187,523 COVID-19 infections and 4,154 fatalities, according to the Arizona Department of Health Services.

Multiple key metrics about the severity of Arizona’s pandemic, including coronavirus-related hospitalizations, are at or near the lowest they’ve been in a month or more.

The rolling seven-day average for newly reported cases was 1,208 on Sunday, the lowest since June 10, according to tracking by The Associated Press.
Dakyron
Member
Mon Aug 10 10:40:13
At this rate, maybe kids can go back to school by Labor Day, and who knows, we might get crazy and have an NFL season...
Seb
Member
Mon Aug 10 14:58:09
Dakyron:

I did no such thing. You said it was 19 at the time, which also wasn't true. Pick a number, any number...

"rizona health authorities reported 600 new coronavirus cases and four additional deaths on Monday morning as the state’s numbers continue trending downward."

LOL! You spent two threads telling us not to use reported-on-day numbers because they were wrong, and to use day of actual event data instead.

"owest they’ve been in a month or more."
Jolly good, maybe now it's been three weeks since our discussion that can now be firmly established. Certainly though, lowest theyve been in a month is a low hurdle.


"The rolling seven-day average for newly reported cases was 1,208 on Sunday, the lowest since June 10, according to tracking by The Associated Press."

This entire conversation happened when you blew your nut at *precisely that metric*. It's hilarious you are now citing that metric.

Dakyron
Member
Mon Aug 10 16:42:06
8 + 8 + 8 = 24. We have been over that.

Anyway, so are you ready to admit the virus is under control here without the need for a fascist lockdown?

Seb
Member
Mon Aug 10 17:00:30
8+8+8=24, but those 8s don't represent anything.

Your made up numbers aren't even consistent, but hey, on the 17th of July, death rates in Arizona were at mid April levels, so why not 24. Why not 38. Why not eleventy six.

The virus isn't under control - even if it's lower than it was a month ago, it's far higher than it was during lockdown.

Everywhere that actually has the virus under control had at worst moderate increases when they relaxed.

What you've had is a second spike, because it's not under control. You've just given up and decided to half arse it.

This is the bit you don't seem to be computing. You did worse before lockdown, worse during lockdown, and now doing worse having lifted lockdown, largely because of idiocy like comparing it to fascism.

But whatever, it's your country, if you just want lots of people to die, many more to suffer long term medical conditions, and fuck your economy to bits, go ahead I guess. But I'm not going to cheer you on. It's just a huge pity.
Dakyron
Member
Mon Aug 10 17:04:04
"The virus isn't under control - even if it's lower than it was a month ago, it's far higher than it was during lockdown. "

Maybe. You couldn't get tested in March or April unless you were coming straight from China and you were near death. I know, we tried to get tested at one point and were told not to come anywhere near the DR office.

"What you've had is a second spike, because it's not under control. You've just given up and decided to half arse it. "

Incorrect. We never had the initial spike.

"This is the bit you don't seem to be computing. You did worse before lockdown, worse during lockdown, and now doing worse having lifted lockdown, largely because of idiocy like comparing it to fascism. "

Locking people in their homes and telling them if they come out for any reason, they will be fined thousands of dollars and thrown in prison is fascism.
Seb
Member
Tue Aug 11 04:50:47
Dakryon:

Ok, so, lifting lockdown caused a massive spike. Hardly under control. It didn't in areas that have the disease actually under control.

The fact that leaving lockdown validates the necessity for lockdown - you were saying it wouldn't ever affect Arizona due to population density and climate, I said it was just hasn't reached you yet. Well, I was right about that.

Had lockdown been used to create truly effective protocols, practices and infrastructure and a viable track and trace system, then when you lifted lockown, you would not have seen this spike.

Instead, you turned this into a stupid culture war, railing against a temporary quarantine as fascism and turning mask warning into a totem signalling your political allegiance.

In addition during the lockdown, the federal government did not make the right decisions about how best to support people and maintain them in employment albeit not doing anything - too many people were made unemployed as a result, hindering recovery, and also suppressing demand (less certainty about what their income would be after lockdown).

And now, because you haven;t got your collective shit together, when you exited lockdown you had a spike, because the virus isn't under control, and very likely there are a large number of people who are responding to that by reducing consumption, either incidentally by avoiding going out, or by explicitly hoarding cash for fear of another lockdown, potential loss of work due to falling ill and medical bills (even in a mild case), and of course, ans as everyone can see this uncertainty many will be cutting back a bit against wider economic conditions.

This is a master class in not to do things. It's insanity and it is just deeply, deeply sad this tribalistic, anti-scientific anti-rationalist approach has taken hold to the degree in American society that a country that put a man on the moon in less than 60 years ago is now struggling to get people to support rational and sensible policies for a global crisis because it provokes the wrong feels.

A quarantine is not fascism, it's a clearly deliniated, temporary measure for well defined public good.

Locking up Japanese citizens during WWII was a far worse thing in terms of state abuse, as for many individuals there was no justifiable need to do so, and the war had an indeterminate end date.

Unmarked police officers arresting people without stating probable cause is a far worse thing, because it established the ongoing right for the federal government to use force in areas that it has not normally done so, in a way that is very hard for the individuals affected to challenge and assert their rights.

Like I said, the overwhelming feeling the US evokes right now is pity.
Pillz
Member
Tue Aug 11 05:33:01
Seb feels pity for the free.

Makes sense.
Dakyron
Member
Tue Aug 11 10:07:08
"Unmarked police officers arresting people without stating probable cause is a far worse thing, because it established the ongoing right for the federal government to use force in areas that it has not normally done so, in a way that is very hard for the individuals affected to challenge and assert their rights. "

WTF does this have to do with COVID-19?
Seb
Member
Tue Aug 11 14:12:47
Dakyron:

Nothing. It is about things you can reasonably call Fascism. A topic you brought up, not me.

An enforced quarantine isn't one of them.
Habebe
Member
Tue Aug 11 15:09:16
Why Facism and not communism, socialism or Marxism? The real issue is authoritarianism.
Seb
Member
Tue Aug 11 16:11:47
Whatever you want to call it, a mandatory quarantine isn't one of those.
Pillz
Member
Tue Aug 11 18:23:59
Yes it is. This is a very bad cold.

It wouldn't be if this were some next level airborne hemorrhagic fever.
hood
Member
Tue Aug 11 20:32:33
A very bad cold that is 3x as deadly vs. the flu's peak (not to be confused with the cold, as that isn't even worth keeping stats on) in only half a season and infinitely more barriers to transmission than a bad flu.

Or, pillz is a cognitive vegetable.
Pillz
Member
Tue Aug 11 22:59:55
March - August is 'half a season'

Sure thing.
hood
Member
Tue Aug 11 23:33:52
4.5 months? Yeah, that's about half a season.
Seb
Member
Wed Aug 12 00:40:44
Pillz, a flu season isn't the and as a calendar season. October to may, though often peters out by march.

Dakyron
Member
Wed Aug 12 10:22:28
Ignore pills, he probably thinks vodka and meth will cure his COVID-19.

In other news...

UK economic output shrank by 20.4% in the second quarter of 2020, the worst quarterly slump on record, pushing the country into the deepest recession of any major global economy.



Way to go Seb!
Dakyron
Member
Wed Aug 12 10:23:39
http://www...nomy/uk-economy-gdp/index.html

Take a look at that graph...
CrownRoyal
Member
Wed Aug 12 11:03:33
"UK economic output shrank by 20.4% in the second quarter of 2020, the worst quarterly slump on record, pushing the country into the deepest recession of any major global economy."


That brexit prosperity is coming, as Boris is making UK great again
Pillz
Member
Wed Aug 12 11:14:09
First confirmed US death is in February. I'm not sure where you stupid cunts get 4.5 months from that. We're 5.5 months in, with flu season being 6-8 months.

In no universe is this 'half a season', except in the universe where 8 weeks and 24 weeks of lockdown are the same.
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