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Utopia Talk / Politics / In minor news..Hardly worth mentioning

Im better then you
2012 UP Football Champ Tue Sep 22 01:04:49
http://www...ral-debt-double-gdp-cbo-419540

By CAITLIN EMMA

09/21/2020 03:43 PM EDT

The federal debt will soar to levels unseen in the nation’s history over the next 30 years, consuming an ever-growing and unsustainable proportion of the nation’s income, the director of the Congressional Budget Office said on Monday.

The independent agency released its long-term budget forecast in the wake of the pandemic and the ensuing economic recess, forecasting that the debt will rise to 98 percent of GDP by the end of this year and reach 195 percent of GDP by 2050. Such levels would demolish the previous record of 106 percent just after World War II.
Debt made up 79 percent of GDP before the pandemic in 2019. Before the previous recession in 2007, it was 35 percent.

“This is by far the highest level of debt recorded in American history,” said Rep. Steve Womack (R-Ark.), the ranking Republican on the House Budget Committee, in a statement. “A burden of this magnitude increases the risk of a financial crisis brought on by Washington’s failure to budget.”

CBO Director Phillip Swagel noted, however, that a fiscal crisis isn’t immediately at hand while the Federal Reserve works to keep interest rates so low. The debt is still manageable and Congress has time to address it — although action may soon be needed with major Social Security, Medicare and highway trust funds set to dry up within the next 11 years, Swagel said.

The report comes as the federal deficit ballooned to $3.3 trillion this year, primarily due to the massive response mounted by the government to combat the pandemic. Congressional leaders are at an impasse over another package to deliver more coronavirus cash, and are hoping to approve legislation that would avoid a government shutdown on Sept. 30.

At some point, lawmakers must grapple with the task of funding the government in fiscal 2021. Beyond that, Congress has no budget caps to set overall funding levels or constrain federal discretionary spending in fiscal 2022.

CBO projected that mandatory spending will increase from nearly 13 percent of GDP last year to 17.5 percent in 2050, with rising costs for health programs and Social Security exacerbated by an aging population.

Interest on the debt is also expected to quadruple as a percentage of GDP over the next three decades, increasing from 1.8 percent of GDP in 2019 to 8.1 percent of GDP in 2050. Federal spending on interest payments is expected to exceed all discretionary spending by 2043.

Cherub Cow
Member Tue Sep 22 01:48:44
The U.S. will knock it out with WWIII, don't worry. The irradiated ashes will be debt free.

Average Ameriacn
Member Tue Sep 22 02:26:46
Trump will fix it in his second term. Republicans stand for small government.

habebe
Member Tue Sep 22 03:26:37
One of the biggest factors is the age of out population. Its not something I've looked into lately so I dont know the numbers.

But basically, younger qorking age populations add to tax revenues more and older populations tend to draw from it ( Healthcare, SS , and not working)

Does anyone have our numbers?

jergul
large member Tue Sep 22 05:30:43
The biggest thing is your crappy tax base. Your tax revenue is half of ours on a per capita basis.

habebe
Member Tue Sep 22 05:42:23
Jergul, Well, some things are just donr differently here and we also have expenses that you don't. Admittedly optional expenses our country has chosen.

But to name a few we have a space program and a military.

Things that are different are charity for example is different. Private charity in the US dwarfs that of Europe, however Europe has greater social welfare so its really just a matter of the mechanism in which the money is spent.

That won't equalize the tax base, but it shrinks the gap I'd bet.

Also age will also drastically effect the tax base. Older folks draw on it while younger folks add to it, generally.

jergul
large member Tue Sep 22 05:53:36
Sure, lets add charity to your taxes as a percent of gdp. You are now at 25% to our 54%.

http://en....untries_by_charitable_donation

Fair enough after all. Charitable donations give tax breaks directly, so its money people would have paid in taxes otherwise.

Older people pay taxes. We are not talking about spending deficits (because yours is insane), but merely about tax revenue and yours suck.

The fix? Collect more taxes.

habebe
Member Tue Sep 22 05:59:54
Well, income, not necessarily taxes.

Its like when people used to tell me they needed a job. Thats just looking at the problem wrong, people need an income, not a job.

Tge US needs to lower expenses and increase revenue, there are different ways to do that.Norway for example nationalized its oil, and has done well at it in a niche sort of way.

Rugian
Member Tue Sep 22 06:05:30
Republicans only worry about the deficit when theres a Democrat in office.

Democrats dont care about the deficit at all.

Tale as old as time (or at least the Clinton years).

habebe
Member Tue Sep 22 06:21:20
Jergul, Isnt EU debt about the same?

habebe
Member Tue Sep 22 06:23:42
http://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/government-debt-to-gdp

Yeah, pre covid it was like 85% of GDP. So now its likley in the same ballpark.

habebe
Member Tue Sep 22 06:29:30
The euro area aggregate debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to rise steeply, by 16.7 percentage points, to 102.7% of GDP in 2020

http://www...ox202004_07~145cc90654.en.html

jergul
large member Tue Sep 22 06:51:25
The oil was always national. Norway set conditions for exploitation rights. Funny how not giving away stuff for free to private interests helps increase tax revenue.

Taxes are always the mainstay of government revenues.

You (you personally) need to pay more taxes.

habebe
Member Tue Sep 22 06:55:48
So why is the EU in greater debt than the US if its all about tax base? obviously something else is at work since tax % of GDP is almost double ( 24-40)

jergul
large member Tue Sep 22 06:59:52
Habebe
The difference again is the tax base. The EUs is 38% of gdp. Your was 25%. Probably a lot lower this year.

habebe
Member Tue Sep 22 07:02:37
So nownyour arguing that the reason the EU has more debt than the US is because they have a higher tax base?

Didnt you just argue the opposite?

jergul
large member Tue Sep 22 07:04:33
Ruggy
The Clinton years? You mean when the Federal Government had a budget surplus?

Habebe
Simply put? The EU had to rebuild after wwii and then again after the collapse of the Soviet block.

You started in a much better place. With Federal budget surpluses as late as 2000.

Your government debt increases have been unsustainable since 2001 - almost without interruption.

The EU has generally tried to maintain a sustainable debt accumulation. And paid the price for that in gdp growth.

habebe
Member Tue Sep 22 07:09:58
We had to build a nation from scratch when Europe was already a developed land...if your want to go back in time...

Its a weak excuse. Also the highest debt to GDP nations are places like France, Italy and Spain and Greece. Not ex soviet nations.

jergul
large member Tue Sep 22 07:11:05
http://www...leases/z1/20200921/html/d3.htm

lol, there was actually typos in debt growth % and raw numbers (other tables) It looked like the federal debt had increased by 11 trillion.

timely btw. z1 gov release came yesterday :).

jergul
large member Tue Sep 22 07:17:58
Stop being silly. You debt has increased dramatically since 2001. The EUs has not increased nearly as much. The EUs austerity policy has had a hugely negative impact on its gdp development, but has allowed US debt to far surpass the EUs in a government debt to gdp measure.

habebe
Member Tue Sep 22 07:26:30
"has allowed US debt to far surpass the EUs in a government debt to gdp measure."

That's blatantly false.

According to the Cites in this thread EU debt is 102.7% of GDP and the US is 98%. Admittedly about the same. But if the solution is soley tax base like you said Europes 40% compated to the US 24% should have the EU in a much netter situation.

habebe
Member Tue Sep 22 07:30:14
Also the two reasons you listed WWII rebuilding and Soviet rebuilding should have hit Germany the hardest in both aspects. Yet Germany has one of the better ratios in the world.

So your reasoning is clearly flawed.

jergul
large member Tue Sep 22 07:30:17
http://ec....n_economy/bloc-4c.html?lang=en

Your cites suck.

habebe
Member Tue Sep 22 07:33:43
For starters the first cite was IBTYs. The 2nd I used came from the European Central bank.

habebe
Member Tue Sep 22 07:36:34
Also did I miss it or did your cite not list a total EU zone debt to gdp ratio? nor A US one.

citing useless numbers is an odd way to debate.

jergul
large member Tue Sep 22 07:47:08
Ok, lets do this properely.

US gdp in 2nd quarter 2020 = 19487 billion
US government debt 2nd 2020 = 25525 billion

Debt = 131% of gdp

Gdp
http://www...leases/z1/20200921/html/f2.htm

Federal + State and local debt
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/20200921/html/d3.htm

habebe
Member Tue Sep 22 08:14:53
Jergul math gymnastics again?

So for one particular quarter which happens to be in the throws of a pandemic response.

A quarter does not make a year.

And if that's what your comparing, just the 2nd quarter of 2020 then what is the EU ratio? if you want to compare quarters.

regardless. Overall the EU has a slightly greater debt to gdp ratio than the US while having nearly double the tax % to gdp.

Your reasoning was WWII and soviet rebuilding. But as I pointed Germany refutes that as a misguided guess on your part.

jergul
large member Tue Sep 22 08:24:19
habebe
How is 102,7% of gdp slight greater than 130% of gdp?

My reasoning is rock solid. The EU entered 2001 with a much higher debt to gdp ratio and now has a much lower debt to gdp ratio.

The German example refutes nothing. It is a nation of savers and had a highly qualified workforce to rebuild with. The dynamics on how its export industries successfully locked its EU brethren into lopsided economic development are outside the scope of this discussion.

habebe
Member Tue Sep 22 08:32:59
You are comparing quarters to total.

Total US debt to GDP ratio is 98%.

Our debt is increasing. Likley the EU debt is incrwasing as well, I dont know.

but 98% is less than 102.7%

Why would you compare one individual quarter to the total amount?

Now you claim that total amount is higher because of 2 reasons. Rebuilding of soviet nations and WWII. Something Germany was impacted in directly more than most with the reuniting the country and WWII.

And yet Germany has a great debt to gdp comparatively. IIRC its about 60%.

habebe
Member Tue Sep 22 08:35:34
Also afaik in the 2nd quarter EU gdp decreased 12%. Its debt also likley went up, Im not sure though.

Rugian
Member Tue Sep 22 08:37:47
Jergul

Note the years in which Clinton ran a surplus and then look at who was in charge of the House during those years.

Unlike me, you should be old enough to remember the Contract With America and shutdown showdowns.

jergul
large member Tue Sep 22 08:40:25
The house signed off on the Clinto Adminstration's budget. Your point?

jergul
large member Tue Sep 22 08:46:56
habebe
The 98% is Federal debt owed to the public. The comparable debt number is 102,7% to 130% of gdp.

Total US Government debt is 130% of gdp. I gave you the links. Check them.

We are not going to discuss how Germany leveraged its skilled workforce and growing industrial base from 1945 until today. Outside the scope of this discussion. Seb is fond of discussing the topic over many, many threads if you feel up for that.

Did you think rebuilding Europe, the reunification of Germany, and rebuilding former eastern block countries inside the EU was free?

Rugian
Member Tue Sep 22 08:48:17
Jergul

If you're going to try to claim that the House doesnt play a role in determining the final composition of the federal budget, then your are not worth anyone's time here.

Rugian
Member Tue Sep 22 08:49:15
Habebe

Jergul doesnt even know that the House can alter a presidential budget. Why are you taking him seriously on something as complicated as the public debt?

jergul
large member Tue Sep 22 08:52:33
Ruggy
Did it? Did Clinton veto the ammended budget? Was the veto broken? What are the details? How did the House change the Clinton Administration's budgets?

jergul
large member Tue Sep 22 08:54:13
http://en....he_Bill_Clinton_administration

Rugian
Member Tue Sep 22 08:59:41
...nigga, do you not know what budget negotiations and amendments are?!!

jergul
large member Tue Sep 22 10:07:08
Ruggy
You mean that the GOP had a seat at the table and had its voice heard as Clinton advanced his administration's economic policy?

Quaintly called Clintonomics at the time :).

Forwyn
Member Tue Sep 22 14:14:27
The GOP was even willing to grant Clinton the Line item veto, which was promptly torpedo'd by RBG and Co.

show deleted posts

Im better then you 2012 UP Football Champ	Tue Sep 22 01:04:49 http://www...ral-debt-double-gdp-cbo-419540 By CAITLIN EMMA 09/21/2020 03:43 PM EDT The federal debt will soar to levels unseen in the nation’s history over the next 30 years, consuming an ever-growing and unsustainable proportion of the nation’s income, the director of the Congressional Budget Office said on Monday. The independent agency released its long-term budget forecast in the wake of the pandemic and the ensuing economic recess, forecasting that the debt will rise to 98 percent of GDP by the end of this year and reach 195 percent of GDP by 2050. Such levels would demolish the previous record of 106 percent just after World War II. Debt made up 79 percent of GDP before the pandemic in 2019. Before the previous recession in 2007, it was 35 percent. “This is by far the highest level of debt recorded in American history,” said Rep. Steve Womack (R-Ark.), the ranking Republican on the House Budget Committee, in a statement. “A burden of this magnitude increases the risk of a financial crisis brought on by Washington’s failure to budget.” CBO Director Phillip Swagel noted, however, that a fiscal crisis isn’t immediately at hand while the Federal Reserve works to keep interest rates so low. The debt is still manageable and Congress has time to address it — although action may soon be needed with major Social Security, Medicare and highway trust funds set to dry up within the next 11 years, Swagel said. The report comes as the federal deficit ballooned to $3.3 trillion this year, primarily due to the massive response mounted by the government to combat the pandemic. Congressional leaders are at an impasse over another package to deliver more coronavirus cash, and are hoping to approve legislation that would avoid a government shutdown on Sept. 30. At some point, lawmakers must grapple with the task of funding the government in fiscal 2021. Beyond that, Congress has no budget caps to set overall funding levels or constrain federal discretionary spending in fiscal 2022. CBO projected that mandatory spending will increase from nearly 13 percent of GDP last year to 17.5 percent in 2050, with rising costs for health programs and Social Security exacerbated by an aging population. Interest on the debt is also expected to quadruple as a percentage of GDP over the next three decades, increasing from 1.8 percent of GDP in 2019 to 8.1 percent of GDP in 2050. Federal spending on interest payments is expected to exceed all discretionary spending by 2043.
Cherub Cow Member	Tue Sep 22 01:48:44 The U.S. will knock it out with WWIII, don't worry. The irradiated ashes will be debt free.
Average Ameriacn Member	Tue Sep 22 02:26:46 Trump will fix it in his second term. Republicans stand for small government.
habebe Member	Tue Sep 22 03:26:37 One of the biggest factors is the age of out population. Its not something I've looked into lately so I dont know the numbers. But basically, younger qorking age populations add to tax revenues more and older populations tend to draw from it ( Healthcare, SS , and not working) Does anyone have our numbers?
jergul large member	Tue Sep 22 05:30:43 The biggest thing is your crappy tax base. Your tax revenue is half of ours on a per capita basis.
habebe Member	Tue Sep 22 05:42:23 Jergul, Well, some things are just donr differently here and we also have expenses that you don't. Admittedly optional expenses our country has chosen. But to name a few we have a space program and a military. Things that are different are charity for example is different. Private charity in the US dwarfs that of Europe, however Europe has greater social welfare so its really just a matter of the mechanism in which the money is spent. That won't equalize the tax base, but it shrinks the gap I'd bet. Also age will also drastically effect the tax base. Older folks draw on it while younger folks add to it, generally.
jergul large member	Tue Sep 22 05:53:36 Sure, lets add charity to your taxes as a percent of gdp. You are now at 25% to our 54%. http://en....untries_by_charitable_donation Fair enough after all. Charitable donations give tax breaks directly, so its money people would have paid in taxes otherwise. Older people pay taxes. We are not talking about spending deficits (because yours is insane), but merely about tax revenue and yours suck. The fix? Collect more taxes.
habebe Member	Tue Sep 22 05:59:54 Well, income, not necessarily taxes. Its like when people used to tell me they needed a job. Thats just looking at the problem wrong, people need an income, not a job. Tge US needs to lower expenses and increase revenue, there are different ways to do that.Norway for example nationalized its oil, and has done well at it in a niche sort of way.
Rugian Member	Tue Sep 22 06:05:30 Republicans only worry about the deficit when theres a Democrat in office. Democrats dont care about the deficit at all. Tale as old as time (or at least the Clinton years).
habebe Member	Tue Sep 22 06:21:20 Jergul, Isnt EU debt about the same?
habebe Member	Tue Sep 22 06:23:42 http://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/government-debt-to-gdp Yeah, pre covid it was like 85% of GDP. So now its likley in the same ballpark.
habebe Member	Tue Sep 22 06:29:30 The euro area aggregate debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to rise steeply, by 16.7 percentage points, to 102.7% of GDP in 2020 http://www...ox202004_07~145cc90654.en.html
jergul large member	Tue Sep 22 06:51:25 The oil was always national. Norway set conditions for exploitation rights. Funny how not giving away stuff for free to private interests helps increase tax revenue. Taxes are always the mainstay of government revenues. You (you personally) need to pay more taxes.
habebe Member	Tue Sep 22 06:55:48 So why is the EU in greater debt than the US if its all about tax base? obviously something else is at work since tax % of GDP is almost double ( 24-40)
jergul large member	Tue Sep 22 06:59:52 Habebe The difference again is the tax base. The EUs is 38% of gdp. Your was 25%. Probably a lot lower this year.
habebe Member	Tue Sep 22 07:02:37 So nownyour arguing that the reason the EU has more debt than the US is because they have a higher tax base? Didnt you just argue the opposite?
jergul large member	Tue Sep 22 07:04:33 Ruggy The Clinton years? You mean when the Federal Government had a budget surplus? Habebe Simply put? The EU had to rebuild after wwii and then again after the collapse of the Soviet block. You started in a much better place. With Federal budget surpluses as late as 2000. Your government debt increases have been unsustainable since 2001 - almost without interruption. The EU has generally tried to maintain a sustainable debt accumulation. And paid the price for that in gdp growth.
habebe Member	Tue Sep 22 07:09:58 We had to build a nation from scratch when Europe was already a developed land...if your want to go back in time... Its a weak excuse. Also the highest debt to GDP nations are places like France, Italy and Spain and Greece. Not ex soviet nations.
jergul large member	Tue Sep 22 07:11:05 http://www...leases/z1/20200921/html/d3.htm lol, there was actually typos in debt growth % and raw numbers (other tables) It looked like the federal debt had increased by 11 trillion. timely btw. z1 gov release came yesterday :).
jergul large member	Tue Sep 22 07:17:58 Stop being silly. You debt has increased dramatically since 2001. The EUs has not increased nearly as much. The EUs austerity policy has had a hugely negative impact on its gdp development, but has allowed US debt to far surpass the EUs in a government debt to gdp measure.
habebe Member	Tue Sep 22 07:26:30 "has allowed US debt to far surpass the EUs in a government debt to gdp measure." That's blatantly false. According to the Cites in this thread EU debt is 102.7% of GDP and the US is 98%. Admittedly about the same. But if the solution is soley tax base like you said Europes 40% compated to the US 24% should have the EU in a much netter situation.
habebe Member	Tue Sep 22 07:30:14 Also the two reasons you listed WWII rebuilding and Soviet rebuilding should have hit Germany the hardest in both aspects. Yet Germany has one of the better ratios in the world. So your reasoning is clearly flawed.
jergul large member	Tue Sep 22 07:30:17 http://ec....n_economy/bloc-4c.html?lang=en Your cites suck.
habebe Member	Tue Sep 22 07:33:43 For starters the first cite was IBTYs. The 2nd I used came from the European Central bank.
habebe Member	Tue Sep 22 07:36:34 Also did I miss it or did your cite not list a total EU zone debt to gdp ratio? nor A US one. citing useless numbers is an odd way to debate.
jergul large member	Tue Sep 22 07:47:08 Ok, lets do this properely. US gdp in 2nd quarter 2020 = 19487 billion US government debt 2nd 2020 = 25525 billion Debt = 131% of gdp Gdp http://www...leases/z1/20200921/html/f2.htm Federal + State and local debt https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/20200921/html/d3.htm
habebe Member	Tue Sep 22 08:14:53 Jergul math gymnastics again? So for one particular quarter which happens to be in the throws of a pandemic response. A quarter does not make a year. And if that's what your comparing, just the 2nd quarter of 2020 then what is the EU ratio? if you want to compare quarters. regardless. Overall the EU has a slightly greater debt to gdp ratio than the US while having nearly double the tax % to gdp. Your reasoning was WWII and soviet rebuilding. But as I pointed Germany refutes that as a misguided guess on your part.
jergul large member	Tue Sep 22 08:24:19 habebe How is 102,7% of gdp slight greater than 130% of gdp? My reasoning is rock solid. The EU entered 2001 with a much higher debt to gdp ratio and now has a much lower debt to gdp ratio. The German example refutes nothing. It is a nation of savers and had a highly qualified workforce to rebuild with. The dynamics on how its export industries successfully locked its EU brethren into lopsided economic development are outside the scope of this discussion.
habebe Member	Tue Sep 22 08:32:59 You are comparing quarters to total. Total US debt to GDP ratio is 98%. Our debt is increasing. Likley the EU debt is incrwasing as well, I dont know. but 98% is less than 102.7% Why would you compare one individual quarter to the total amount? Now you claim that total amount is higher because of 2 reasons. Rebuilding of soviet nations and WWII. Something Germany was impacted in directly more than most with the reuniting the country and WWII. And yet Germany has a great debt to gdp comparatively. IIRC its about 60%.
habebe Member	Tue Sep 22 08:35:34 Also afaik in the 2nd quarter EU gdp decreased 12%. Its debt also likley went up, Im not sure though.
Rugian Member	Tue Sep 22 08:37:47 Jergul Note the years in which Clinton ran a surplus and then look at who was in charge of the House during those years. Unlike me, you should be old enough to remember the Contract With America and shutdown showdowns.
jergul large member	Tue Sep 22 08:40:25 The house signed off on the Clinto Adminstration's budget. Your point?
jergul large member	Tue Sep 22 08:46:56 habebe The 98% is Federal debt owed to the public. The comparable debt number is 102,7% to 130% of gdp. Total US Government debt is 130% of gdp. I gave you the links. Check them. We are not going to discuss how Germany leveraged its skilled workforce and growing industrial base from 1945 until today. Outside the scope of this discussion. Seb is fond of discussing the topic over many, many threads if you feel up for that. Did you think rebuilding Europe, the reunification of Germany, and rebuilding former eastern block countries inside the EU was free?
Rugian Member	Tue Sep 22 08:48:17 Jergul If you're going to try to claim that the House doesnt play a role in determining the final composition of the federal budget, then your are not worth anyone's time here.
Rugian Member	Tue Sep 22 08:49:15 Habebe Jergul doesnt even know that the House can alter a presidential budget. Why are you taking him seriously on something as complicated as the public debt?
jergul large member	Tue Sep 22 08:52:33 Ruggy Did it? Did Clinton veto the ammended budget? Was the veto broken? What are the details? How did the House change the Clinton Administration's budgets?
jergul large member	Tue Sep 22 08:54:13 http://en....he_Bill_Clinton_administration
Rugian Member	Tue Sep 22 08:59:41 ...nigga, do you not know what budget negotiations and amendments are?!!
jergul large member	Tue Sep 22 10:07:08 Ruggy You mean that the GOP had a seat at the table and had its voice heard as Clinton advanced his administration's economic policy? Quaintly called Clintonomics at the time :).
Forwyn Member	Tue Sep 22 14:14:27 The GOP was even willing to grant Clinton the Line item veto, which was promptly torpedo'd by RBG and Co.
	show deleted posts

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