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Utopia Talk / Politics / Covid-26
EuropeanPussy
Member
Sat Oct 17 09:55:52
A European nation is testing its whole population!

http://spe...board-coronavirus-testing.html

The state prepares nationwide coronavirus testing

It should take place during two consecutive weekends.



Slovakia should prepare for nationwide testing for the coronavirus. It should take place during two consecutive weekends, PM Igor Matovič (OĽaNO) told the October 17 press conference.

The pilot testing will take place next weekend in the districts of Tvrdošín, Námestovo, Dolný Kubín, and most likely in Bardejov, where the situation is the worst. Testing for the rest of the country will take place the following two weekends.

The testing will be free of charge and available to everybody who in the territory of Slovakia at the time of testing.

The state-run Administration of State Material Reserves has ordered 13 million antigen tests for this purpose, which will show results after some 15 minutes but are not as accurate as PCR tests.

There should be 5,997 sampling sites with seven people taking samples in each of them.

It is not clear now whether the testing will be mandatory.

More details should be revealed on October 18, after a special session of the cabinet.




EuropeanPussy
Member
Wed Oct 21 09:08:30
Why the UK has so many Corona cases
http://twitter.com/HumansOfLateES/status/1314660379633606663
Dakyron
Member
Wed Oct 21 10:28:07
Its incredible that nations don't do weekly national sampling to get a more accurate number of cases.
habebe
Member
Wed Oct 21 10:57:13
I actually agree with dakyron.
Rugian
Member
Wed Oct 21 10:58:30
Because the more you test, the more cases you get. Duh.
habebe
Member
Wed Oct 21 11:14:58
http://youtu.be/CpB2dmIA-lA

sound logic.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Wed Oct 21 16:39:54
We got a letter home from the day care informing us that one of the teachers had tested positive for Covid. An official government letter.

Pray for us.
Seb
Member
Wed Oct 21 17:07:38
Dakyron:

They do.
Rugian
Member
Wed Oct 21 18:17:04
Lil Nimi Jr will be fine; children are much less susceptible to the disease.

His old man is another story. Better hope those lungs arent too scarred up from weed smoke.
Dakyron
Member
Thu Oct 22 11:48:30
Seb - UK is allegedly doing monthly sampling, but its only been 8 weeks since they started, so who knows what has actually been accomplished.

"Pray for us. "

For you? Shouldn't we be praying for the teacher who got COVID, you selfish fuck. Anyway, I hope your kid is fine, but that you die.
Seb
Member
Thu Oct 22 12:43:12
Dakyron:

Hmm? 8 weeks? I know people called for sample testing back in march. Wonder if they stopped and restarted, or maybe the earlier efforts were a non national initiative.
Pillz
Member
Thu Oct 22 15:49:13
How many more years of corona terror inspired restrictions of freedom are you advocating for now Seb?

sam adams
Member
Thu Oct 22 15:53:58
Just 8 more weeks. After that they can track and trace.
Rugian
Member
Thu Oct 22 15:58:00
Can you imagine if no vaccine was forthcoming for another 3-5 years? Seb would literally want us to all hide in our homes for that long.

The fact is, we're stuck with this disease until an effective vaccine is widely distributed. Flattening the curve has proven ineffective in most places that arent remote island nations or totalitarian shitholes. "Eight more weeks" would have been a delaying tactic at best.
Seb
Member
Fri Oct 23 03:32:19
Pillz:
2-4 week national circuit breaker in the UK, timed with half term holidays. And sort out track and trace: instead of trying to build in effective outsourced central solutions, brigade capacity out local efforts.

The govt screwed the pooch when they let Cummings take his infamous eye test, losing trust; forcing them to rely on criminal sanctions rather than social responsibility; and that's fucked test and trace. Trust in local councils is higher.


Rugian:
1. We will have a vaccine be
Before then.
2. No that's not what I proposed, and you know it.
3. Sam has reminded you, so it looks even more stupid to pretend otherwise
4. Flattening the curve is entirely possible, most countries have to some extent done it. The US is the only country in the developed world that's just had this unremitting trend growth in cases and deaths.
Seb
Member
Fri Oct 23 03:34:00
I know it comforts you all to imagine the US outcome was inevitable, rather than a failure.

But Germany is not an island, or small.

And the US is doing materially worse than the UK, despite the UK being among the worst on the western world.
jergul
large member
Fri Oct 23 03:56:01
Covid-19 exposed flaws in the American system. Great, massive, gapping flaws.
Seb
Member
Fri Oct 23 04:49:14
Comrade jergul, you did not see graphite on the ground.
jergul
large member
Fri Oct 23 07:40:31
Heh, that show is really getting some traction :-)

But sure. Global deaths from Chernobyl is 60 000. Compared to how many due to mismanaging covid 19 in the US?
sam adams
Member
Fri Oct 23 10:27:39
Lol... poor seb... you and your government utterly failed at track and trace the first 8 months. But trust me, next month we will get it right!

Lol
Rugian
Member
Fri Oct 23 11:13:06
Seb

Chernobyl is the story of how a highly centralized bureaucracy of unaccountable apparatchiks failed to adequately handle a major crisis, in no small part due to a national culture that compelled unquestioning obedience to the all-powerful state.

Are you sure *you* of all people should be invoking it to satirize me?

Jergul

What a ridiculous comparison to make. What's next, counting the death counts of all other disease outbreaks during Trump's presidency? Omg, Chernobyl killed 60,000 but the 2017-2018 seasonal flu killed 61,000; Trump is worse than Chernobyl!
Rugian
Member
Fri Oct 23 11:23:49
Seb

1. But it's pure luck that we'll have a vaccine in only a year's time. Historically, vaccines for new diseases have taken 3-5 years to develop, and in many cases longer than that. If a Covid vaccine wasn't going to be available until 2025, you would he for continuing lockdowns until then.

2. You are for lockdowns. This is on record.

"Track and trace" is a pipe dream for any country that doesnt engage in authoritarian surveillance of its citizens. Its helpful, but at the end of the day it hasn't managed to prevent second and third infection waves. So that means more lockdowns under your "plan."

4. Like Europe did? Oh wait, rofl.

Flattening the curve can only be a temporary success for a virus as infectious as this one. You will have more waves bro, as you are currently experiencing firsthand.



jergul
large member
Fri Oct 23 13:00:10
Ruggy
Well, for one, Chernobyl seems pretty overhyped compared to the relatively chavalier approach we have to a far more deadly disaster.

On the second point. If you do not understand how your weakassed response has exposed flaws in the US system, then I cannot help you.

Sure, it is worse in Belgium. A country that does not aspire to be a global leader.
Seb
Member
Fri Oct 23 13:39:08
Rugian:

It's the story of a regime that depended on lies to sustain itself, attempted set itself against reality and lie its way through a major catastrophe that creates incontrovertible, testable facts that others could verify that couldn't be suppressed, and imploded.

Absolutely this is America, or more precisely Republicans, Chernobyl.
Seb
Member
Fri Oct 23 13:40:39
Certainly that was the TV shows thesis, whatever nonsense you believe about it being about state ownership Vs private capital.

The key passage being "When the truth offends, we lie and lie, until we can no longer remember it is ever there. But it is still there. Every lie we tell incurs a debt to the truth. Sooner or later, that debt is paid."
Seb
Member
Fri Oct 23 13:45:20
Rugian:

If test and trace and suppression can't work, explain Germany?

Even Europe's new peak is meagre compared to America's year of catastrophe.

Also you are incorrect about Draconian tracking.

The general success stories show a general pattern: successful countries rely on social buy in to voluntary measures.

Your ruling political party turned basic hygiene factors into a culture war instead.

Indeed, there is a lovely graph I will dig out later showing the relationship between lockdown measures and economic impact: basically countries that didn't lock down have taken a worse economic hit.
Seb
Member
Fri Oct 23 15:03:30
FT and behind a paywall but found this screen grab

https://twitter.com/adam_tooze/status/1317057708273651713?s=19
sam adams
Member
Fri Oct 23 15:25:31

UP fact check: countries with the worst economic hits are all european ones with extensive lockdowns.

The UK especially did the absolute worst of both: failed to control the virus AND screwed the economy. In the US, where we correctly predicted the utter failure of government functionaries from the start, we failed to control the virus but at least kept up more of our economy.

Why would anyone ever buy into your virus control efforts, voluntary or otherwise? You have been so wrong for so long about so many different things. The legasov quote describes both you and trump precisely:

"When the truth offends, we lie and lie, until we can no longer remember it is ever there. But it is still there. Every lie we tell incurs a debt to the truth. Sooner or later, that debt is paid."

"We have the virus under control, global warming will doom the planet by 2015, black people commit few crimes, and genetics is fake" -seb dyatlov
Seb
Member
Fri Oct 23 15:29:14
As for what is on record, it is on record, so misrepresenting it is foolish.

I described how lockdown could be used to suppress the disease, allow test and trace measures to be bought in, adapt businesses to include mitigation measures, and improved treatment of the disease.

At the time, you and others repeatedly suggested this meant "indefinite lockdown until a vaccine arrives" and I repeatedly explained that this was not what I was proposing.

And as you say, this is a simple matter of record. For example here:

http://www...hread=86070&time=1594159159045

Test and trace, and mitigation to keep disease levels low plus short (often local) lockdowns that are less onerous than the first seem a perfectly reasonable approach compared to the US laissez faire approach.

Painting this as surveillance state (most of the test and trace systems are using Google/apples hyper-private approach that in principle prevents tracking individuals) and indefinite continuous lockdown is exactly the kind of debt to the Truth that Chernobyl deals with: where to even admit that a Soviet rector could have a design flaw prevents those operating it from operating it safely.

The key point about Dyatlov wasn't that he was reckless: the worst outcome he expected was a failed test. The problem was he internalised the lie.

That's your problem Rugian. The US political discourse has become entirely consumed by ideological positions that increasingly require the rejection of facts, and promulgation of lies to the point it has become reflexive. And it's much worse on the political right largely because its more homogeneous. The US left has its internal divisions forcing it to at least accept the need for compromise.

And here you are, ironically, doing exactly that: lying about my position reflexively as though there was some audience you were seeking to bring along with you. When there are two people in a lift and one farts, there's no point lying about it.

So no, Chernobyl isn't about the follies of the state Vs the perfection of the market (Fukushima being the counterpoint: the complete failure of the containment vessel demonstrated the containment should not have been approved, that the three engineers that resigned over its approval were right, and that GEs actions to bully the regulator into approving it an example of what happens when you let politicians be bribed by industry to override the state as regulator - a thing we have seen again with the 737 max).

It's not about models, it's about integrity; and the US is rotten.
Seb
Member
Fri Oct 23 15:30:55
Sam:

The fact you have to regularly make false quotes because you can't argue the real points kinda undermines your position there, doesn't it?
Seb
Member
Fri Oct 23 15:32:18
The UK had the weakest and shortest lockdown of major European countries.

It has the worst economic performance.

And in Sam's mind, this proves his case.
sam adams
Member
Fri Oct 23 16:56:18
"I described how lockdown could be used to suppress the disease, allow test and trace measures to be bought in"

And i once described how a star battleship might slice its opponent apart with badass lasers. Difference is i know my shit is made up.
sam adams
Member
Fri Oct 23 16:58:36
Actually scratch that. My story is actually possible, at some distant point in the far future.

Your story... ascribing competence to UK bureaucrats in 2020... had exactly 0.0 chance of ever actually happening.

Lol a nation of incompetence like no other we have seen.
obaminated
Member
Fri Oct 23 18:24:53
Uk has a population size of about a fifth of the total US population. If the total infected today 20k rose in comparison to match the US population they would have 100k infected today. The US had 80k infected today.
In other words, seb is wrong as usual.
This applies to france and spain whom also have about a fifth the size of the US population.
Paramount
Member
Sat Oct 24 02:44:17
U.S. breaks daily record for coronavirus cases with over 84,000 new infections

(Reuters) - The United States broke its daily record for new coronavirus infections on Friday as it reported 84,218 new cases due to outbreaks in virtually every part of the country, according to a Reuters tally.

The spike in cases comes less than two weeks before the presidential election on Nov. 3 and is hitting battleground states such as Ohio, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. On Thursday, the United States reported a near-record 76,195 new cases.

The previous record was 77,299 new cases on July 16. At the time, hospitalizations for COVID-19 patients hit 47,000 and two weeks later deaths rose to an average of 1,200 per day.

Now, hospitalizations are over 41,000 and deaths average nearly 800 per day. Sixteen states had record one-day increases in new cases on Friday and 11 reported a record number of hospitalized COVID-19 patients.

The United States has the most cases in the world at 8.5 million and the most fatalities with 224,000 lives lost. The United States has reported over the past week an average of 60,000 new cases per day, the highest seven-day average since early August.

http://www...avirus-usa-cases-idUSKBN279037
Seb
Member
Sat Oct 24 03:34:41
Obaminated:

Lol. Seriously, look at a graph. Your daily new cases have been higher for longer and the number of deaths per million is now higher than the UKs.

UK daily infections is spiking, that's true. Yours is trending upwards too. Unlike us, you aren't doing anything about it.
Seb
Member
Sat Oct 24 03:38:45
Sam:

And yet, since the UK imposed the second worst control measures in the developed world, UK deaths per million stabilised while the US has grown and overtaken the UK.

Meanwhile, other countries have done better.

Your argument then is that, looking at two countries that have been run by parties ideologically opposed to the state and that have run down their public sector over at least a decade of austerity and other measures; the US was smarter to not even try to control the disease, and the UK was foolish to try with relative success.

Meanwhile, Germany is a space battleship with a laser on it.



Seb
Member
Sat Oct 24 03:39:27
This kind of incoherent nonsense is why nobody takes you seriously Sam. Other than Habebe. But he's a trump fan.
Daemon
Member
Sat Oct 24 09:29:00
"If test and trace and suppression can't work, explain Germany?"

Seems like we're just a little bit late to the show, first local health authority in Berlin is giving up tracking because there are too many cases.

Corona cases in intensive care rise, too. Only about 200-300 during most of the summer, now already more than 1200 and winter has not even started (max was close to 3000 in April).
Seb
Member
Sat Oct 24 14:09:46
Daemon:

Effective Test and trace is probably the reason why you are late to the party.

Until we get vaccines, two to three weak circuit breaks (regionally and less extreme than the first lockdowns) done early seem the best approach.
jergul
large member
Sun Oct 25 03:20:41
Seb
You are using the wrong metric. Apples and oranges.

The US should be compared to Brazil and Romania, not Germany or Norway.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Sun Oct 25 03:42:18
This is slowly still going I see. Clearly a lot of people have had problems with the relative solitude ”offered” by the pandemic. Meanwhile I am in excellent shape since I am basically in my gym all the time. Unintended consequences of the virus. I mean I take 5-15 min breaks when working to go and work out every hour of work.

I can’t really say that my life overall has been negatively impacted. In addition to being able to work out all the time, I don’t need to commute and thus I save 1.25 hours every day and about 150 euros every month not driving.

So, I mean this will trigger a lot of people, but I am hoping this goes on until next summer. I will be a beast by then!
jergul
large member
Sun Oct 25 05:52:10
The rat race negatives have become clearer.

The rowing machine is getting good traction (heh). New supplement discovery: Creatine!

I use it for hydration, not performance, but you get both. Cheap as dirt. Easier to produce than gelatine.

You guys remember my saying that virtually everyone admitted for emergency stuff like strokes and heart attacks are dehydrated, right?

Staying hydrated might avoid triggering underlying health issues.
Seb
Member
Sun Oct 25 06:56:41
Jergul:

Depends if you want to focus on the factor that prevent America (or the UK) being like Germany or Norway.

Principally, it is about political culture, institutions and governance.

In particular, for me the worrying trend in UK politics since 2010-2020 has been the embrace and mainstreaming of the Republican's political playbooks and strategies by the conservatives to the point that the UK conservative party is now basically a bunch of populist radicals wearing the flayed skin of the now dead conservative party.

It's increasingly clear that the issue of the EU was seized on precisely because it would be so divisive and so turbo-charge the latent tribal loyalties and enable a mode of emotion driven politics where the party of power could literally do and say anything and retain a strong enough degree of support.

That - in both the US and UK - is what is preventing us being like Germany.

The slight difference between the US and UK is where as Trumps republicans are avowedly seeking to use the coronavirus response as an electoral issue in itself; the UK conservatives would rather actually address the issue, but find themselves incapable having hollowed out the decision making functions of the state and their own cabinet as part of the process and find themselves unable.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Sun Oct 25 08:58:16
Jergul
Creatine for endurance?
renzo marQuez
Member
Sun Oct 25 09:05:57
jergul
large member Sun Oct 25 05:52:10
"The rowing machine is getting good traction (heh). New supplement discovery: Creatine!"

Rowing and creatine are both awesome. There are some studies suggesting creatine even has cognitive benefits. Do you row 2ks? I was close to getting my 2k time back under 7 mins before my gym closed due to Chinese cringe AIDS.
jergul
large member
Sun Oct 25 09:16:55
Nimi
Nope. Or only in so far as endurance atheletes become less dehydrated than their control group.

It increases water and ATP content in muscular, and nerological (and to a lesser extent bone and testicular) cells.

The ATP increase buys a bit of anabolic time before cells need to burn sugar to keep things going.

Heh, it might even be helpful if a stroke has occured. Its the loss of energy due to loss of O2 that kills braincells. So buys some time before the cells begin to starve.
jergul
large member
Sun Oct 25 09:19:00
RM
That is close to world class time. Good for you! I row 1k once a day.

I typed some stuff above to nimi relevant for cognitive stuff.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Sun Oct 25 10:28:18
Hmm I had not thought about the hydration aspect as a benefit. This is true I always gain 2-3 kg of water and since it is in the cells, it ends up making one look bigger :-)
sam adams
Member
Sun Oct 25 10:30:16
"with relative success."

Pats seb on the head. Yes. One of the highest infection rates, an inabity to stop a second wave despite claiming you could, and the worst economic damage is success.

Your lies are as retarded as trump lies.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Sun Oct 25 10:30:51
I only used it for strength and in my experience it results in 15-20% more reps in each set.
sam adams
Member
Sun Oct 25 10:38:55
"Until we get vaccines, two to three weak circuit breaks (regionally and less extreme than the first lockdowns) done early seem the best approach."

Thats wierd. A few momths ago you said the uk wouldnt need that because you could track and trace. Lol what changed?
renzo marQuez
Member
Sun Oct 25 10:47:19
http://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29704637/

Effects of creatine supplementation on cognitive function of healthy individuals: A systematic review of randomized controlled trials

Conclusions:
Oral creatine administration may improve short-term memory and intelligence/reasoning of healthy individuals but its effect on other cognitive domains remains unclear. Findings suggest potential benefit for aging and stressed individuals. Since creatine is safe, future studies should include larger sample sizes. It is imperative that creatine should be tested on patients with dementias or cognitive impairment.
Seb
Member
Sun Oct 25 11:05:49
Sam:

The UK got the bulk of it's infections due to the delayed lockdown.

Had we not locked down - a key measure you attack as pointless given the failure of test and trace to keep numbers down during the last few weeks - we would have continued to grow at at least the kind of rate the US has seen.

Instead, daily infections and daily deaths plummeted, while US continued to hold steady around 1k a day deaths for the bulk of this year, resulting in you overtaking the UK.

The truth is the UK policy measures have been more successful than the US in that you have overtaken us in total deaths and sickness per capita. It's pretty simple.

What is inexcusable in the UK is the failure to implement control measures about three to four weeks ago when it was clear that cases were rising faster than test and trace could process. The result now is that it would take a national lockdown to bring the numbers back under control.

We are now following Sam policy of "muh economuh"; yet instead of embracing this as enlightenment, you are deriding it - showing basically you don't actually have a policy other than to try and find somewhere you can claim is doing worse than America on some basis, whatever basis, so you can claim superiority.

Sam:
"Thats wierd. A few momths ago you said the uk wouldnt need that because you could track and trace."

That's not exactly what I said, but given you are as likely to claim that I called for the culling of the first born of each family and daubing our thresholds with their blood as anything I actually did say, is it really worth recapping what I did say?

"Lol what changed?"
Largely, the govt following retarded Sam policies of encouraging everyone to go back to office jobs they didn't need to in order that people who work in sandwich shops didn't need to remain fuloughed. But also a side order of outsourcing test and trace to Serco because obviously Serco know all about that, putting a donor with no relevant experience in charge of the programme, undermining their own guidance and warnings with flagrant trolling of the general public, followed up by pigheadedly refusing to implement local controls when needed because it makes them look bad.

Basically, they keep following your advice Sam.
Seb
Member
Sun Oct 25 11:07:52
I mean, it's funny.

90% of the UKs deaths are attributable to when they were following the policy inaccurately described as "herd immunity" - i.e. Samism; the effect of lockdown was to causes deaths and infections to drop, and as soon as they started re-prioritising economic measures and relaxing control measures as per Sam, the infections start to rise again - and Sam thinks this proves him right.
sam adams
Member
Sun Oct 25 12:31:50
You said you would implement track and trace, and that you could then open your economy and further lockdowns would be unnecessary.

You were completely wrong.

Lol, imagine thinking that as a uk bureaucrat you could ever do something right? How retarded.
Seb
Member
Sun Oct 25 12:44:49
Sam:

Further national lockdowns, local mid level restrictions were possible. And that remains true. The fact the govt failed to implement mid level restrictions in a timely fashion is regrettable.

Bare in mind this was on response to the claim - which you and others have continued to make - that I support permanent lockdown do the bulk of what I was saying when referring to lockdown was in reference to the total shutdown initially applied, whereas here we are talking about regional control measures that fall short of total suspension of all but the most critical industries.

The main reason needed for a national lockdown was:
1. To get numbers down to levels that could be managed by healthcare system.
2. Ensure time for business to adopt mitigation levels
3. Creation of a regime for local lockdowns and test and trace which has some natural capacity that can't be exceeded without requiring more stringent measures.

You seem blissfully unaware that test and trace is a fully outsourced service, so being done by private firms on contract, not by beaurocrats. Ironically, the locally run local public health authority test and trace has a 96% success ratio in tracing contacts, and the outsourced national one less than 65%. So sadly, again, this proves the opposite of what you think it does: the govt should have focused resources on the existing beaurocrats rather than hiring expensive private sector firms with no prior experience or infrastructure.

Imagine thinking a private sector firm with no relevant experience could step in and perform as well as an existing network with decades of experience, just because it's privately owned.


Habebe
Member
Sun Oct 25 12:53:23
"
Further national lockdowns, local mid level restrictions were possible. And that remains true. The fact the govt failed to implement mid level restrictions in a timely fashion is regrettable"

Seb, This goes back to fundamental flaw in your arguing for more big government controls in general.

You often argue what is possible* and not what is plausible or politically realistic.
jergul
large member
Sun Oct 25 13:45:06
habebe
Give me a break. This was done less than a year ago. The insanity is not doing it again to blunt the pandemic until vaccines can take some of the load off.

Your line of argument is why I suggested you should be compared with Brazil and Romania instead of with developed countries.
Seb
Member
Mon Oct 26 03:28:52
Habebe:

Currently, polling shows 60%+ public support for further lockdown.

This is your problem: you make shit up without basis.

Implementing a two week circuit break 6 weeks ago was bothb possible and politically viable.

The only challenge that Boris had would be that to do so would admit his policies to encourage everyone to stop working from home 12 weeks ago was premature and wrong headed; and that test and trace has not delivered and needs a reset.

Sometimes, in govt, it is necessary to admit you screwed up in order to regain trust. Boris however it's psychologically incapable of this.
Seb
Member
Mon Oct 26 03:30:48
Interest rates on some treasury gilts are negative. There isn't exactly a blueprint issue here either.
Seb
Member
Mon Oct 26 03:33:29
"it's politically not viable"
"Why?"
"The public won't support it"
"They do, by around 2:1"
"It's big state"
"Yes"
"That means I'm ideologically opposed to it"
"That's not the same as politically unrealistic, it means your out of step with both reality and public opinion"
jergul
large member
Mon Oct 26 04:24:28
Well, I just ordered shower toilets. A covid-19 thing to improve household hygiene.

The link to better health outcomes if infected is indirect, but its a good risk decreasing measure.
Pillz
Member
Mon Oct 26 08:40:58
Nobody expected we'd find all the earth's idiots so easily.

Then this happened and look, jergul needs a Japanese toilet to survive the flu.
jergul
large member
Mon Oct 26 10:41:39
Pillz
Its just a recognition that secondary infections are never a good idea and particularly not with covid-19 in play.

There are reasons the japanese live longer than we do. Japanese toilets are part of the explanation.
jergul
large member
Mon Oct 26 10:49:22
http://data.oecd.org/healthstat/life-expectancy-at-65.htm
LazyCommunist
Member
Mon Oct 26 11:27:58
That's how you beat the virus: if you find a few infected cases, then mass test everyone!

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1204619.shtml

Nucleic acid testing in Kashi prefecture, Northwest China's Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region covering more than 4.7 million people was in full swing on Sunday, aiming to curb virus transmissions after 138 asymptomatic cases were reported in two days.

Experts reached by the Global Times warned that such a large number of asymptomatic patients could mean the virus has been spreading among communities. They called for thorough testing and epidemiological investigations to find out more potential COVID-19 patients.

Since the local government reported one asymptomatic case on Saturday, a 17-year-old female who works in a clothing factory in Shufu county, Kashi reported 137 new asymptomatic cases on Sunday, all related to the first case. The source of infection of the first case is unknown.

A total of 4.7 million people in Kashi prefecture need to be tested, covering all counties and the city of Kashi. The testing in Shufu county was set to be finished by the end of Sunday, and the other areas of the prefecture will complete testing by the end of Tuesday, officials reported at a press briefing on Sunday.

As of Sunday afternoon, over 2.8 million nucleic acid samples had been taken, with 334,800 results released. No abnormalities have been found for the time being.
swordtail
Anarchist Prime
Mon Oct 26 12:32:09
http://www...ntial-item-ban-in-supermarkets
habebe
Member
Mon Oct 26 13:17:02
Seb, There is definitley a basis.

Your argument is also flawed in that you think public support alone is enough to make it politically plausible.

You admitted yourself the UK government dropped the ball, lending support to my claim.You look at what government can do in a perfect world.

Jergul does the same thing, I get it with him. Norway is a small efficient government in a wealthy state with high levels of trust.What works in Norway will not work in every place.
Pillz
Member
Mon Oct 26 13:30:22
Lol @ the United cuckdom
Seb
Member
Mon Oct 26 14:10:15
Jergul:

Even Trump admits it:

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1320797181817901056?s=19
Seb
Member
Mon Oct 26 14:11:54
Habebe:

Thats tautological: you are arguing that what happened was inevitable *because* it happened.

That's the definition of a flawed (circular) argument.
habebe
Member
Mon Oct 26 14:19:39
You continue to argue what could* be that never happens.

I'm simply saying whats realistically more likley.
sam adams
Member
Mon Oct 26 15:20:44
"test and trace has a 96% success ratio in tracing contacts"

Too bad for you it had 0% success in preventing the massive second wave you said it would prevent

Hard fail.
Seb
Member
Mon Oct 26 15:23:35
Habebe:

What do you mean "never happens", the govt initiated a much more stringent and longer lockdown a couple of months previously.

If you are arguing that the this isn't possible, you need to explain why, other than simply saying "it's politically impossible because they didn't do it".

It's highly possible: technically, legally, fiscally, popular support there... The reason they didn't do it was solely due to the fact it would force them to admit they screwed up with some of their policies after lockdown ended.

You can't just say this is some impossible could be. That's just stupid.

CrownRoyal
Member
Thu Oct 29 14:48:46
http://www...e=UTF-8&hl=en-ca&client=safari

I thought this was very instructive, from Spanish covid data
CrownRoyal
Member
Thu Oct 29 14:49:30
http://eng...is-spread-through-the-air.html

Correct link
renzo marQuez
Member
Thu Oct 29 14:54:16
Covid-23. Michael Bay. Lulz.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sKFPgd4j5k8&feature=emb_logo
Dakyron
Member
Fri Oct 30 10:09:29
http://kta...ficult-winter-as-virus-surges/

Cases soaring in Europe, France imposing another month-long lockdown.

Lockdowns have not worked. They only prolong the pain.
Dakyron
Member
Fri Oct 30 10:09:41
Basically, Seb is STILL wrong.
sam adams
Member
Fri Oct 30 10:11:51
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Seb said this was under control.
Seb
Member
Fri Oct 30 12:51:28
Sam:

Time and exponential growth are concepts alien to you - clearly, as you are showing a graph of the situation now, not the situation 3-4 weeks ago (or was it longer? I forget) when I said it was under control. Despite the UK being "out of control", it still manages to have lower deaths per million than the US, as the US accelerates to a new higher rate.

Control means that the system has the ability to handle the growth of the disease.

The issue is that our govt decided to pull a Sam and not use any of those levers.

Dakyron:
Nonsense. Lockdowns were incredible effective, eliminating the disease and allowing a prolonged period of open circulation over the summer period without the spread of the disease as seen in the US, which is why the US has the worst per capita death figure of large western countries.

What you may argue is that test and trace has failed to negate the need for further mini-lockdowns.

With promising vaccines on the threshold of being released, and increasingly clear that many of those who have not died face long term conditions, it is clear that European countries have generally taken the correct approach and the US the wrong approach, and the UK has managed to take a middle of the road approach where by delaying lockdowns has incurred more economic damage for less gain that other European countries.





Habebe
Member
Fri Oct 30 13:03:22
US deaths per 100k =69.85
UK deaths per 100k =69.25

So yes by that measurement the UK faired slightly better, bit realistically the same. Death fatality % was worse, But not astronomically.
Habebe
Member
Fri Oct 30 13:03:56
http://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality
Seb
Member
Fri Oct 30 17:58:09
Habebe:

Point is, almost all of our deaths occurred up to 4 weeks after beginning of lockdown.

Most of your deaths have happened over the course of the year after everyone else figured out a few weeks of national lockdown crushed the curve and made the problem manageable.

What does this tell you? Two things:

1. It is really really dumb to let the disease run in areas that are densely populated and highly connected like the UK. It kills a lot of people quickly.

2. Lockdowns are effective in crushing the curve and can keep it low for long periods before it starts to be an issue again.

3. The earlier you lock down, the shorter the period lockdown needs to be to get the level down to manageable level.

The UK did four really stupid things:

1. Delayed lockdown by 2-4 weeks after it was obvious we needed to do it, resulting in our April peak and most of our deaths, and making lockdown about 4-6 weeks longer than it needed to be to get to the level we could open again.

2. Eat out to help out scheme and other govt measures to try and force people to stop working from home simply helped accelerate the return of the disease growth

3. Delaying circuit break (a short period of additional controls lots stringent than lockdown) by 5 weeks after it was obvious it was needed and recommended by the govts own advisors. We are now looking at a national lockdown next week.

4. Not firing Cummings for his breaking of lockdown rules, leading to widespread disregard of social distancing rules.

The US did one major mistake, it elected Donald Trump.


Seb
Member
Fri Oct 30 18:00:07
But giggles aside, it's one thing for your house to blow up due to a gas leak (UK). It's quite another to watch a small fire slowly consume your house over the course of several hours when you have a fire extinguisher to hand going "nope, nope, let's keep it burning to own the libs".

That's the US right now.
habebe
Member
Fri Oct 30 19:01:18
1. So now your resetting the bar.

2. If our house burned down we would have had about 10x the amount of deaths according to estimates. 2x as many die from smoking every year, now that's letting ypur house burn down.
sam adams
Member
Fri Oct 30 20:31:21
"Time and exponential growth are concepts alien to you - clearly, as you are showing a graph of the situation now, not the situation 3-4 weeks ago (or was it longer? I forget) when I said it was under control. "

3-4 weeks ago when you said it was under control, it was actually very obvious that you were in unchecked exponential growth and it was very much not under control.

Also, you said track and trace would make all this moot. Wrong again.
Pillz
Member
Sat Oct 31 06:23:47
They need 8 weeks for track & trace. Then lockdown can end
Seb
Member
Sat Oct 31 06:46:29
Habebe:

How am I resetting the bar? You seem to be creating a arbitrary and different criteria of success for each - much like Sam is. America set out to do little, and it did little, and many died, but this is a success.

The UK initially decided to do little, a lot of people died, so it changed course, crushed the curve, but there was ultimately a second spike. So this is a failure even though the increase in deaths was stopped.

Germany took preemptive action, has low deaths, but ultimately now is facing a spike. Abject failure.

Is this really how you see it?

". 2x as many die from smoking every year, now that's letting ypur house burn"

So by this argument, the war on terror was what, complete insanity? And all the money you spend on counter terrorism should be spent on anti smoking?

Sam:

At the time, the rate of growth (even if exponential in form) and the baseline were such that the govt had the potential to control growth.

It's the classic delayed feedback problem Sam. But I guess second order differential equations are things you don't need to deal with, or just throw
at Mathematica. As long as the level and rate of growth are such that if control is applied, the total and rate can keep within the ability of the control measures to manage, then you are still in control. That is the definition of in control.

It chose not to because it is frightened of Sams, who are a larger number of their support base and party members, who are dumb, funny understand exponential growth and will only support control measures when the spread is sufficiently visible.
Seb
Member
Sat Oct 31 09:18:56
The thing about smoking is that it mostly only kills the people who smoke. There's a stronger element of responsibility.

That's not the same as a pandemic. And the impact of the fact anyone can get it is bigger on the economy in the long term.

Plus you are again assuming there is no cost to survivors, when there are increasing body of evidence to show at least some have long term impact.
werewolf dictator
Member
Fri Nov 06 07:47:27
15.86 usa 55.95 71.81
9.96 uk 62.55 72.51
20.28 spain 62.09 82.37
12.65 france 45.7 58.35
7.8 italy 58.71 66.51
2.19 germany 11.21 13.4
8.47 russia 11.8 20.27
12.49 ukraine 5.77 18.26
12.67 poland 5.35 18.02
20.35 romania 18.37 38.72
9.2 netherlands 36.28 45.48
22.99 belgium 86.62 109.61
36.77 czech 3.98 40.75
4.1 greece 2.44 6.54
8.96 portugal 17.69 26.65
1.78 sweden 57.16 58.94
15.69 hungary 6.29 21.98
3.39 belarus 7.13 10.52
6.04 austria 8.29 14.33
2.15 serbia 10.18 12.33
7.32 switzerland 23.54 30.86
12.88 bulgaria 8.73 21.61
1.88 denmark 10.76 12.64
0.47 finland 6.07 6.54
4.64 slovakia 0.61 5.25
0.37 norway 4.97 5.34
3.22 ireland 36.61 39.83
werewolf dictator
Member
Fri Nov 06 07:50:50
column 1.. increase of deaths per 100k between sept 1 and today [using jhu.edu pages and wayback machine and spreadsheet]

column 2.. country name

column 3.. sept 1 rate

column 4.. today rate
werewolf dictator
Member
Fri Nov 06 07:55:17
uk sucks with 4.3% case fatality.. vs 1.8% for germany.. that explains a big part of difference

do british doctors tell infected to stay at home and ride out severe symptoms or something
Dukhat
Member
Fri Nov 06 08:52:29
We should have been like Germany. The CDC is way better resourced than the Robert Koch institute. They have mass testing and paid leave and high mask compliance for public events.
werewolf dictator
Member
Fri Nov 06 09:07:03
FROM MARCH:

The surgeon general had a message for people who want to run out and stockpile masks to combat the coronavirus – don't.

"Seriously people - STOP BUYING MASKS!" Surgeon General Jerome Adams tweeted. "They are NOT effective in preventing general public from catching #Coronavirus, but if healthcare providers can’t get them to care for sick patients, it puts them and our communities at risk!"

The upper-case emphasis is all his, and shows how adamant he is that people stick to the script for prevention offered by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. His tweet links to that script, which includes a section that essentially agrees with Adams' take on masks.

"CDC does not recommend that people who are well wear a facemask to protect themselves from respiratory diseases, including COVID-19," the CDC says. "Facemasks should be used by people who show symptoms of COVID-19 to help prevent the spread of the disease to others."

~usa today



cdc and hhs and surgeon general and fauci all sucked.. on this and keeping people out of hospitals

at least trump has become negative role model [good thing] showing if you don't wear masks in setting of others not doing so then you are likely to get it..
Seb
Member
Fri Nov 06 09:54:21
Werewolf:

Extremely low testing rates, with initially only those going into hospitals being tested.

People not severe enough to go to hospital didn't get tested, pushing case fatality up.
jergul
large member
Fri Nov 06 11:41:52
Seb
What is the infection to tested ratio right now? For England if you have it.
Seb
Member
Fri Nov 06 12:26:51
I've not been following. It was edging to 10% of those tested being positive at one point.
Seb
Member
Fri Nov 06 12:30:35
http://www...ng-uk-22-october-to-28-october

9.3%

Start on GOV.UK
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