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Utopia Talk / Politics / Early Voting Numbers in Texas
Y2A
Member
Tue Oct 20 21:21:30
Harris County (Houston) Texas numbers are now at nearly 720k votes (52% of the total votes in 2016) thru 10/19/2020 (7 days of votes). Given that there are 11 days of early voting left plus election day that would seem to point to a large surge in voting this election cycle.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BI8yJ9bJiQ0
Habebe
Member
Tue Oct 20 21:39:44
ladies and gentlemen of this supposed jury, I have one final thing I want you to consider. Ladies and gentlemen, this is Chewbacca. Chewbacca is a Wookiee from the planet Kashyyyk. But Chewbacca lives on the planet Endor. Now think about it; that does not make sense!

Why would a Wookiee, an 8-foot-tall Wookiee, want to live on Endor, with a bunch of 2-foot-tall Ewoks? That does not make sense! But more important, you have to ask yourself: What does this have to do with this case? Nothing. Ladies and gentlemen, it has nothing to do with this case! It does not make sense! Look at me. I'm a lawyer defending a major record company, and I'm talkin' about Chewbacca! Does that make sense? Ladies and gentlemen, I am not making any sense! None of this makes sense! And so you have to remember, when you're in that jury room deliberatin' and conjugatin' the Emancipation Proclamation, does it make sense? No! Ladies and gentlemen of this supposed jury, it does not make sense! If Chewbacca lives on Endor, you must acquit! The defense rests.
Y2A
Member
Tue Oct 20 21:59:07
the chewbacca defense is meaningless here.
Y2A
Member
Sat Oct 24 00:10:57
nearly 1M votes in Harris County already, turnout is going to be insane in Texas as it seems to be all over the country.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1_ryXEEBfrQ
obaminated
Member
Sat Oct 24 00:25:37
Well when you get your mail in ballot a month inadvance and it takes about 2 minutes to fill out, it makes sense more people would be inclined to do it.

The problem is people were voting a month before the election prior to the debates and other issues coming to light, such a biden admitting he plans to end the oil industry.
Dukhat
Member
Sat Oct 24 03:12:49
Grasping at straws.
patom
Member
Sat Oct 24 05:02:23
obominated, another Trumpster getting all his thoughts direct from Trump. What did Columbus say when he first saw Ohio. I'll ask Trump.
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Sun Oct 25 23:31:03
supposedly now Texas has surpassed 80% of its total 2016 votes cast

not sure who it bodes well for

young people seem out in force everywhere, which hopefully means D... unless it's lots of immature asshole white guys which would be a Trump demographic
Habebe
Member
Sun Oct 25 23:40:11
Youve always got D on the mind...
Y2A
Member
Sun Oct 25 23:52:57
higher turnout always benefits democrats
Habebe
Member
Mon Oct 26 00:00:24
Well. That's because non voters tend to be poor uneducated colored people.

Where as poor uneducated whites vote Republican these days.
kargen
Member
Mon Oct 26 01:27:12
From what I have read tumbleweed the 80% is total number of early ballots not overall ballots. Texas has six extra days of early voting this year so that would make sense.

If the numbers continue about 67% of registered voters will vote.
"The turnout appears to be strong among supporters of both political parties. In his popular daily recap of early vote totals Thursday, Ryan reported that voters who in the past have voted in Republican primaries but not Democratic primaries make up 31.3% of the early vote, compared with 26.1% for Democratic primary voters. But because 39% of early voters have no primary voting history, it’s impossible to tell which party is leading in early vote turnout. Texans don’t have the option to align with a particular party when they register to vote."

"But in counties that supported President Donald Trump by more than 20 percentage points in 2016, at least 37% of people already cast their ballots. In counties that went for Democrat Hillary Clinton by similar margins, meanwhile, at least 36% of people already voted as of Friday afternoon."

habebe
Member
Mon Oct 26 01:45:45
Kargen, For Texas they have already cast 80% of vote totals in 2016. Not just early/mail, but nationwide you are correct.
habebe
Member
Mon Oct 26 01:53:48
However, TX afaik os the only state where Republican early voting has surpassed Democratic early voting.

http://www...817-Derek-Ryan-October-21.html

I say AFAIK because I don't know who is voting early in other states.
habebe
Member
Mon Oct 26 01:55:39
Also so much of this election is jist unknown territory ots hard tonuse old models.
Dukhat
Member
Mon Oct 26 04:30:43
Texas has an open primary habebe. Just because you participated in one primary over the other doesn't mean you are affiliated with that party.
Dakyron
Member
Mon Oct 26 10:17:12
Is this COVID related is the only question. IE: Are these people voting early ones who normally vote on election day, or are they people who normally don't vote?

Locally, they are saying 110% increase in early voting so far compared to 2016.
kargen
Member
Mon Oct 26 11:00:00
"Texas has an open primary habebe."

Yeah that is why the numbers I used are from people that only voted for one of the two major parties in primaries.
When I lived in Denton Texas voting there was a mess. There was a push in some election cycles for as example Democrats to vote in the Republican primary to try and get a weak candidate on the ticket. I know in other parts of the state Republicans were voting Democrat in the primaries for the same reason.
The district I voted in twice the left came up with a strategy to try and clog the polling places. They would do whatever they could to spend as long as they could in front of the voting machines in heavily Republican areas to try and make the lines so long people would give up and go home. They weren't even being sneaky about it.
habebe
Member
Mon Oct 26 12:12:12
So basically we have no clue who is voting.
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Mon Oct 26 13:05:56
hopefully more Iranians than Russians
habebe
Member
Mon Oct 26 13:18:28
Biden actually said our greatest current enemy was Russia..... and claims Trump is stuck in the 60s.
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Mon Oct 26 13:51:18
did he qualify it in terms of election interference?

& Trump is definitely stuck in the past
habebe
Member
Mon Oct 26 16:28:08
No it was on his 60 minutes interview. He sees Russia as an enemy and China as a competitor.

Y2A
Member
Mon Oct 26 17:30:07
Dak,

To your question above, the reason I am looking at the % of votes-to-date vs 2016 total votes is exactly to do that.
Y2A
Member
Mon Oct 26 17:36:29


http://targetearly.targetsmart.com/

2020 votes cast thru 10/25
Harris County, TX
1,035,562

2016 total votes:
1,312,112

79% of 2016 votes have been casted!
Y2A
Member
Mon Oct 26 17:45:04
that is 79% in 13 days of voting (early voting started 10/13). That is about 6% of total 2016 turnout per day. The early voting period ends 10/30 (Friday) that is five days left of early voting. Say we go conservative and use 4% per day because the 6% includes weekends. Then that is 79% + (4% * 5) = 99%. So pretty much the entire amount of 2016 would be cast by election day and then election day itself would probably have a large bump.
Rugian
Member
Mon Oct 26 17:46:16
Great to see it. If voter turnout is this strong in Republican Texas, then Trump has a reasonable shot at winning the popular vote.
Y2A
Member
Mon Oct 26 17:48:22
the turnout is strong in areas trending towards dems. Houston/Dallas proper plus suburbs.
Y2A
Member
Mon Oct 26 17:48:55
the clown lost ground in Texas last time
Rugian
Member
Mon Oct 26 17:51:22
I believe this is the part where I yell "VOTER FRAUD" and storm out. Toodles
Habebe
Member
Mon Oct 26 18:32:45
What is the link of enthusiasm to I creased voter turnout?
Y2A
Member
Mon Oct 26 20:42:28
not sure what that means? enthusiasm is an abstract concept that is measured by actual voter turnout.
renzo marQuez
Member
Mon Oct 26 20:50:49
Apparently there's two realistic 269-269 possibilities. Lulz.
Y2A
Member
Mon Oct 26 22:16:58
this is one:

http://www.270towin.com/maps/ey3yn
Y2A
Member
Mon Oct 26 22:20:16
this is the other:

http://www.270towin.com/maps/3zR86
Dukhat
Member
Mon Oct 26 22:23:16
It won't be a tie. Biden will win in a romp though it may be less than it should be due to Republican shennanigans. Barr is also goign to sue every state he can because he's Trump's toadie. And many votes might not be counted because of Trump fucking up the Postal Service.

And Trump fucked up the census as well.

This country is still so fucked because of this corrupt piece of shit.
Habebe
Member
Mon Oct 26 22:32:34
So from what I heard ab3put the census he just banned using illegal immigrants from counting towards alloting congressional representation. Why should states get more rep. Because they house illegals?
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Mon Oct 26 22:45:39
they ended it a month earlier than it was supposed to be ended
Habebe
Member
Mon Oct 26 23:04:21
Why?
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Mon Oct 26 23:06:23
because they are corrupt dicks

they claimed they needed the time to finish up the report on time or something
jergul
large member
Mon Oct 26 23:32:16
Habebe
Perhaps illegals should count as 3/5ths of a person?

^Is why illegals count.
kargen
Member
Tue Oct 27 01:45:18
jergul they should count as a whole person on a bus back to their country of origin.

The census should count only those in the country legally and the districts should account for citizens only.
jergul
large member
Tue Oct 27 02:09:13
Good luck overturning the 14th ammendment.
Habebe
Member
Tue Oct 27 03:25:20
If your presence in a state is by itself illegal its insane to think someone should gain political power from that.

The term in dispute is "inhabitant" not person.

Now technically the terms definition means any person or animal living somewhere.

However unless we start counting wildlife lets look at the intent.

Since Indians were not counted ( and specifically mentioned) it would seem to reason others "not of our country" so to speak would also be included.
jergul
large member
Tue Oct 27 04:20:07
"counting the whole number of persons in each state, excluding Indians not taxed"

No representation without taxation is the key to understanding the Indian wording.

Like I said, good luck overturning the 2nd ammendment.
jergul
large member
Tue Oct 27 04:20:36
14th rather.
Rugian
Member
Tue Oct 27 04:42:04
"No representation without taxation"

And yet, illegals do not have the vote.

Its a function of that whole "being an illegal" thing.
jergul
large member
Tue Oct 27 04:51:10
I agree. Illegals should not be paying taxes. No taxation without representation!
jergul
large member
Tue Oct 27 04:52:06
Come to think of it, felons should not be paying taxes either.
Rugian
Member
Tue Oct 27 05:10:48
Cute, but wrong. Rights can be taken away if you're caught being a naughty boy. Imprisonment for committing a crime is an acceptable format of punishment, even though it represents a loss of liberty.

Similarly, loss of voting rights for felons is an acceptable measure. By being a felon, you've demonstrated that you're not an upstanding citizen and the body politic would be better off if you didn't have a say in it.

As for illegals, they never had rights to begin with and they're in the country illegally, so fuck them.
jergul
large member
Tue Oct 27 05:32:13
Ruggy
Cute and right. Your country is founded on the principle that taxation and representation are entwined.

Illegals and felons should not be paying taxes.
Rugian
Member
Tue Oct 27 05:41:34
jergul

Our country was founded on the principle that all men have the inalienable right to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.

If we were to be as pedantic as you are here, we'd have to abolish incarceration since it represents a loss of liberty.

Fortunately that's not necessary as we know better.
jergul
large member
Tue Oct 27 05:42:59
Ruggy
All propertied white men is probably what you meant.
Rugian
Member
Tue Oct 27 05:53:05
The DoI doesn't say that, so no.
jergul
large member
Tue Oct 27 06:19:23
The point was clarified in the actual constitution. Though press releases like the DoI are also nice, I suppose.
chuck
Member
Tue Oct 27 08:06:10
> Like I said, good luck overturning the 2nd ammendment

Not cool, man. When we invited you to sit in on the liberal cabal at Comet Ping Pong, you promised you would keep our secrets about the planned gun confiscations. Next you'll accidentally let slip the plan for affirmative action forced mandatory abortions for white people.
jergul
large member
Tue Oct 27 09:25:23
"affirmative action forced mandatory abortions for white people."

The Pro-Life Initiative? My bad. I did not realize it was a secret.
Rugian
Member
Tue Oct 27 09:27:21
Jergul

I'm searching through my copy of the Constitution, and I don't see anything about either white people or property requirements.

Can you cite the relevant article and section?
patom
Member
Tue Oct 27 09:42:58
Rugian, aren't or weren't you a strict Constitutionalist, John Birch, Tea Party guy? If so then the original founding fathers only allowed white people of property vote.
Rugian
Member
Tue Oct 27 09:46:50
Patom

Actually not true. Racially-based voting restrictions were more of an 1820s thing.
Dakyron
Member
Tue Oct 27 09:55:54
Eventually, the framers of the Constitution left details of voting to the states. In Article I Section 4, the Constitution says:

The times, places and manner of holding elections for Senators and Representatives, shall be prescribed in each state by the legislature thereof; but the Congress may at any time by law make or alter such regulations.

Unfortunately, leaving election control to individual states led to unfair voting practices in the U.S. At first, white men with property were the only Americans routinely permitted to vote. President Andrew Jackson, champion of frontiersmen, helped advance the political rights of those who did not own property. By about 1860, most white men without property were enfranchised. But African Americans, women, Native Americans, non-English speakers, and citizens between the ages of 18 and 21 had to fight for the right to vote in this country.
Rugian
Member
Tue Oct 27 10:22:30
"In 1789, ten of the original thirteen states had significant property requirements for voting, whereas only three - Georgia, South Carolina, and Virginia - restricted the franchise to white men"

And here's a bone for jergul:

"Only three [states] - Georgia, Pennsylvania, and South Carolina - had any kind of citizenship requirement [to vote]."
Rugian
Member
Tue Oct 27 11:02:40
Kind of interesting to see when blacks lost the vote in the original thirteen states. Obviously in most cases disenfranchisement was tied to expanding the vote to poor whites:

Connecticut: 1818
Delaware: 1792
Georgia: Technically a previous restriction was rescinded in 1789, but the state still prevented blacks from voting anyway lol
Maryland: 1801
Massachusetts: Never
New Hampshire: Never
New Jersey: 1807
New York: 1821
North Carolina: 1835
Pennsylvania: 1838
Rhode Island: Never
South Carolina: Always restricted
Virginia: Always restricted


And compare that to when citizenship requirements were implemented to vote:

Connecticut: 1818
Delaware: 1831
Georgia: Always required
Maryland: 1810
Massachusetts: 1821
New Hampshire: 1813
New Jersey: 1807
New York: 1804
North Carolina: After 1855
Pennsylvania: 1838
Rhode Island: 1842
South Carolina: Always required
Virginia: 1830
Habebe
Member
Tue Oct 27 13:59:52
The thing is they have to break the law in order to become an inhabitant.

If I have a contract to sell meth to my neighbor at specified prices you can't have that contract enforced in court because it requires you to breal the law, making it uenforceable.
kargen
Member
Tue Oct 27 16:53:44
"I agree. Illegals should not be paying taxes."

Sure they should, in their country of origin when they are returned there.
Y2A
Member
Tue Oct 27 20:09:19
the clown is campaigning in Omaha, Nebraska right now
Dukhat
Member
Tue Oct 27 20:25:32
Texas early voting will likely at this point in early voting have surpassed the total turnout of 2016. Texas will probably show the biggest increase in turnout of all the states since it ranked dead last in turnout and generally has abysmally low turnout compared to other states.
Y2A
Member
Tue Oct 27 20:52:36
finally found a guy that is tracking it (by state) check it out:

http://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html
Y2A
Member
Tue Oct 27 20:53:58
Texas is leading the nation
habebe
Member
Tue Oct 27 20:56:00
And its still going to stay Republican.
Dukhat
Member
Tue Oct 27 22:11:35
From your lips to god's ears.
Y2A
Member
Wed Oct 28 23:23:39
Cook just moved Texas to toss-up

http://coo...-path-narrows-texas-moves-toss

NATIONAL POLITICS
Biden’s Path to 270 Widens, Trump’s Path Narrows, as Texas Moves to Toss Up
aw2
Amy Walter
October 28, 2020
@amyewalter
Less than a week out from Election Day and President Donald Trump is playing catch-up. In 2016, he won 30 states (and Maine's 2nd Congressional District) and their 306 electoral votes. Today, just 20 states, worth 125 electoral votes, are safely in his column. Former Vice President Joe Biden is holding 24 states worth 290 electoral votes in his column.

October 2020 Electoral College Ratings

(Full chart here)

To win the election, Trump will need to win every state we currently have in the Toss Up column: Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Iowa, Ohio, Maine's 2nd CD, as well as the newest addition, Texas. Even then, Trump would be 22 electoral votes short of 270. He would need to win at least two of the seven states currently sitting in Lean Democrat: Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada and New Hampshire. Trump carried all but Minnesota, Nevada and New Hampshire in 2016.

At this point, Ohio and Maine's 2nd District are probably the most promising for Trump, followed by Texas and Iowa. If he were to win all of those, he'd be at 188 electoral votes, still 82 votes shy of 270. Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina are pure Toss Ups with Biden ahead by anywhere from 1 to 2 points in those states.

Even if Trump were to win all of those states, he'd then need to move into the Lean Democratic territory where Arizona, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania offer the best opportunities. If you just looked at polling averages, Arizona would be the best opportunity for Trump. Biden has a small — but steady — 3 point lead. Even so, given Trump's unpopularity among suburban voters, it's hard to see how he makes up needed ground in Maricopa (Phoenix).

In Wisconsin, a huge spike in coronavirus cases and hospitalizations has led state health officials to plead with residents to leave home only when absolutely necessary. That COVID is the dominating issue in these final days of the campaign is a problem for the president. Charles Franklin, the Marquette University Law School poll director, told the AP recently that "approval of his handling of COVID is the next-strongest predictor of vote choice, behind voters' party affiliation and their overall approval of Trump's performance as president." In the most recent Marquette poll in early October Trump had an anemic 41 percent approval rating on his handling of the virus.

Picking up Arizona and its 11 electoral votes would get Trump to 259 electoral votes, 11 shy of 270. Picking up Wisconsin (10 EV) or Minnesota, where the Trump campaign is spending time and effort (10 EV), would leave both candidates stuck at 269.

This is where Pennsylvania becomes even more critical.

In Pennsylvania, the conventional wisdom, as well as the Trump campaign, see a tightening race. The FiveThirtyEight polling average puts Biden ahead by 5 points. But, congressional district polling paints a different — and more difficult — picture for the president. These polls find Biden expanding Clinton's margins in suburban Philadelphia, but also find Trump failing to put up the same kind of numbers he did in 2016 in central, western and northeastern Pennsylvania.

But, while Trump has a narrow path to 270, Biden is looking at several different pathways to 270. Biden can afford to lose states in Toss Up like Georgia, North Carolina or Iowa and still have plenty of different options to get to an electoral college victory. Of course, all three are hosting competitive Senate races that could tip the balance of power in the upper chamber. Notably, Biden is spending the final week of the campaign traveling to Iowa and Georgia.

Texas is a state that Biden doesn't need to win, but it is clear that it's more competitive than ever. Texas' shift from Lean Republican to Toss Up shouldn't come as a surprise. Recent polling in the state — both public and private - shows a 2-4 point race. That's pretty much in line with the hotly contested 2018 Senate race in the state where Sen. Ted Cruz narrowly defeated Rep. Beto O'Rourke 51 percent to 48 percent.

A huge surge in early vote (as of October 26th, almost half of Texas' registered voters had already cast a ballot) suggests that we could see record turnout in a state that has added many new residents since 2016. That also adds a level of uncertainty to the equation.

Statewide and district level polling show Biden running strong in and around metro suburban parts of the state, but underperforming with Latino voters. In his analysis of the New York Times/Siena poll (10/20-25) of the state, the New York Times' Nate Cohn writes that "Biden has a lead of only 57 percent to 34 percent among that group, somewhat beneath most estimates of Mrs. Clinton's support among Hispanic voters four years ago. The finding broadly tracks with national surveys, which have shown Mr. Trump improving among Hispanic voters compared with his 2016 standing. Similarly, Hispanic voters in the Times/Siena poll say they backed Mrs. Clinton by a margin of 60 percent to 29 percent."

But, it's also the case that we don't have a whole lot of experience with Texas as a battleground state. Neither do national pollsters. In an analysis of polling errors in 2016 and 2018, my colleague David Wasserman wrote this week that polls in the Southwest "undershot Democrats' final margin in 17 of 19 cases, including by an average of 1.4 points in 2016 and 4.2 points in 2018."
Y2A
Member
Thu Oct 29 20:53:55
Texas: 95% with one day to go.
habebe
Member
Fri Oct 30 21:03:13
http://www...voter-turnout-democrats-433643

Trump has a sizeable advantage in Florida.
Dukhat
Member
Fri Oct 30 22:23:27
Not really. Non-data-driven polls are crap.
Habebe
Member
Fri Oct 30 22:30:40
Its not a poll, its evaluating voter turnout so far.
obaminated
Member
Fri Oct 30 22:35:21
Apparently hispanics and blacks arent coming out for bunker joe. If he loses this race it will be more than hilarious. It will break the democratic base.
Habebe
Member
Fri Oct 30 23:01:44
Florida has already started counting early votes, so we will know by election night
Y2A
Member
Fri Oct 30 23:27:18
just for florida, north carolina, arizona and a handful of other states.
Habebe
Member
Fri Oct 30 23:30:42
Y2a, Is there a site trcking the votes so far? I ooked around but seen mostly speculation.
Y2A
Member
Fri Oct 30 23:36:16
it is in the link above, us elections project created by a professor from the university of florida

http://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html
Y2A
Member
Fri Oct 30 23:39:33
there is also target smart that has alot of drop downs that let's you get down to the state/county level and has bar charts for voter registration (in states that release that data) and "modelled party" where they try to model the voter's party.

http://targetearly.targetsmart.com/
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