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Utopia Talk / Politics / All things election 2020 p.2
Sun Oct 25 16:32:32
Tw, do a little bit of research because you clearly dont anything. Except the sizes of hunter and donald's dicks.
the wanderer
Sun Oct 25 16:45:50
research what? Giuliani's wild speculation w/ no ability to look into it? (he decided Joe Biden been corruptly taking money for 30 years w/ Hunter as 'bagman' based on 1 text that doesn't say anything like that)

i'll repeat my last thread comment (but fix the 'laptop' part to satisfy forwyn):


interview where Giuliani asked @ 18:20 & 22:05 about giving hard drive copies out to others... he won't do it, wants to control the information


thus totally idiotic to expect media outlets to just report the pieces he wants reported

& he's clearly hiding shit or he'd want it distributed

absolutely no reason to listen to anything Giuliani puts out
renzo marQuez
Sun Oct 25 16:58:42
the wanderer Sun Oct 25 16:45:50
"... based on 1 text ..."

Sun Oct 25 17:06:18
Tw, do a little bit of research because you clearly dont anything. Except the sizes of hunter and donald's dicks
the wanderer
Sun Oct 25 17:38:36
that claim -is- based on 1 text

maybe you two need to do some research

"This is a text from Hunter Biden to his daughter admitting his 30 year role as a bagman in the Biden Crime Family."

that text is not admission of being a 'bagman' for 30 years... or of any crime at all

'entire family' almost certainly refers to his kids & ex-wife who he married ~30 years ago & apparently bitter about paying everything w/ little gratitude

the half salary part less clear, but his kids seem college age... maybe Joe made Hunter pay for part of his college debt or for drug fines or who knows what... Giuliani's interpretation certainly not the only one available

(plus of course we're taking Giuliani's word for it that it came from Hunter, & we're taking Giuliani's word for it that it's to his daughter, & we're taking Giuliani's word for it that there's nothing contradicting his speculation... all unacceptable)

"he's clearly hiding shit or he'd want it distributed" ~smart guy
the wanderer
Sun Oct 25 17:50:52
for example, what if the prior text is about him buying her a car & her being ungrateful (there obviously has to be something prior for context)

then he's just suggesting Joe made him pay back via half his paycheck back when he was starting out

why is Rudy hiding the context, plus insisting on being gatekeeper
Anarchist Prime
Sun Oct 25 18:12:38
the wanderer
Sun Oct 25 18:29:06
^good speculation, the media should report it

also, in regards to that 1 text message being his evidence, he says so in the interview

see 17:03-18:03


wild speculation over that 1 message & saying that's enough evidence when asked if anything else

Sun Oct 25 18:41:20
The fact that most of the ME hates Iran is nothing new.
Sun Oct 25 18:43:05
Tw, for the 5,000th time. The fact that no one on the biden camp denies the laptop or the emails proves they are true you gullible dick measurer.

Until you can acknowledge that, there is no point in talking to you.

Hunter got an executice job in a country he didnt live in, who spoke a language he didnt speak, in an industry he had no experience in.

How do you think that happened?
Sun Oct 25 18:43:51
Tw is the definition of a useful idiot.
Sun Oct 25 18:45:55
Three men are in a room and each may ask God one question.Reagan, Brezneff and Arafat.

Reagan asks " When will capitalism rule the world?"

God : " in 100 years"

Reagan begins to cry because it won't be in his lifetime.

Brezneff asks " When will communism rule the world?"

God :" In 200 years"

Brezneff cries because it won't be in his lifetime.

Arafat asks " When will the ME be at peace?"

God begins to weep.
the wanderer
Sun Oct 25 18:53:15
"The fact that no one on the biden camp denies the laptop or the emails proves they are true you gullible dick measurer"

actually it doesn't

and even if they are real it doesn't prove anything

see Giuliani's crazy ass speculation on that 1 text

if he had better proof why would he be going for wild speculation on that 1 text

as to Burisma hiring Hunter Biden & Devin Archer (why are they hiring Archer?) maybe they hoped it would help... maybe it even does help just internally to Ukraine or the industry, giving them cachet like Chinese companies hiring random white people... doesn't automatically mean Joe did anything
renzo marQuez
Sun Oct 25 18:53:38
It's real.

Sun Oct 25 18:58:07
Lol, "yeah i was the guy over seeing foreign policy in ukraine, just cause a company hired my son as an executive doesnt mean i had anything to do with it"

Seriously, tw, how do you survive in this world with your sincere level of stupidity?
the wanderer
Sun Oct 25 19:08:45
"doesnt mean i had anything to do with it"

correct... or do you think Joe called them & said hire my son?

Hunter trading on his name is not the same as Joe doing anything wrong
the wanderer
Sun Oct 25 19:10:20
apparently this was all meant to be an orchestrated hit job... but Giuliani messed it up...

By early October, even people inside the White House believed President Trump’s re-election campaign needed a desperate rescue mission. So three men allied with the president gathered at a house in McLean, Va., to launch one.

The host was Arthur Schwartz, a New York public relations man close to President Trump’s eldest son, Donald Jr. The guests were a White House lawyer, Eric Herschmann, and a former deputy White House counsel, Stefan Passantino, according to two people familiar with the meeting.

Mr. Herschmann knew the subject matter they were there to discuss. He had represented Mr. Trump during the impeachment trial early this year, and he tried to deflect allegations against the president in part by pointing to Hunter Biden’s work in Ukraine. More recently, he has been working on the White House payroll with a hazy portfolio, listed as “a senior adviser to the president,” and remains close to Jared Kushner.

The three had pinned their hopes for re-electing the president on a fourth guest, a straight-shooting Wall Street Journal White House reporter named Michael Bender. They delivered the goods to him there: a cache of emails detailing Hunter Biden’s business activities, and, on speaker phone, a former business partner of Hunter Biden’s named Tony Bobulinski. Mr. Bobulinski was willing to go on the record in The Journal with an explosive claim: that Joe Biden, the former vice president, had been aware of, and profited from, his son’s activities. The Trump team left believing that The Journal would blow the thing open and their excitement was conveyed to the president.

The Journal had seemed to be the perfect outlet for a story the Trump advisers believed could sink Mr. Biden’s candidacy. Its small-c conservatism in reporting means the work of its news pages carries credibility across the industry. And its readership leans further right than other big news outlets. Its Washington bureau chief, Paul Beckett, recently remarked at a virtual gathering of Journal reporters and editors that while he knows that the paper often delivers unwelcome news to the many Trump supporters who read it, The Journal should protect its unique position of being trusted across the political spectrum, two people familiar with the remarks said.

As the Trump team waited with excited anticipation for a Journal exposé, the newspaper did its due diligence: Mr. Bender and Mr. Beckett handed the story off to a well-regarded China correspondent, James Areddy, and a Capitol Hill reporter who had followed the Hunter Biden story, Andrew Duehren. Mr. Areddy interviewed Mr. Bobulinski. They began drafting an article.

Then things got messy. Without warning his notional allies, Rudy Giuliani, the former New York mayor and now a lawyer for President Trump, burst onto the scene with the tabloid version of the McLean crew’s carefully laid plot. Mr. Giuliani delivered a cache of documents of questionable provenance — but containing some of the same emails — to The New York Post, a sister publication to The Journal in Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp. Mr. Giuliani had been working with the former Trump aide Steve Bannon, who also began leaking some of the emails to favored right-wing outlets. Mr. Giuliani’s complicated claim that the emails came from a laptop Hunter Biden had abandoned, and his refusal to let some reporters examine the laptop, cast a pall over the story — as did The Post’s reporting, which alleged but could not prove that Joe Biden had been involved in his son’s activities.

While the Trump team was clearly jumpy, editors in The Journal’s Washington bureau were wrestling with a central question: Could the documents, or Mr. Bobulinski, prove that Joe Biden was involved in his son’s lobbying? Or was this yet another story of the younger Mr. Biden trading on his family’s name — a perfectly good theme, but not a new one or one that needed urgently to be revealed before the election.

Mr. Trump and his allies expected the Journal story to appear Monday, Oct. 19, according to Mr. Bannon. That would be late in the campaign, but not too late — and could shape that week’s news cycle heading into the crucial final debate last Thursday. An “important piece” in The Journal would be coming soon, Mr. Trump told aides on a conference call that day.

His comment was not appreciated inside The Journal.

“The editors didn’t like Trump’s insinuation that we were being teed up to do this hit job,” a Journal reporter who wasn’t directly involved in the story told me. But the reporters continued to work on the draft as the Thursday debate approached, indifferent to the White House’s frantic timeline.
Keep up with Election 2020

Finally, Mr. Bobulinski got tired of waiting.

“He got spooked about whether they were going to do it or not,” Mr. Bannon said.

At 7:35 Wednesday evening, Mr. Bobulinski emailed an on-the-record, 684-word statement making his case to a range of news outlets. Breitbart News published it in full. He appeared the next day in Nashville to attend the debate as Mr. Trump’s surprise guest, and less than two hours before the debate was to begin, he read a six-minute statement to the press, detailing his allegations that the former vice president had involvement in his son’s business dealings.

When Mr. Trump stepped on stage, the president acted as though the details of the emails and the allegations were common knowledge. “You’re the big man, I think. I don’t know, maybe you’re not,” he told Mr. Biden at some point, a reference to an ambiguous sentence from the documents.

As the debate ended, The Wall Street Journal published a brief item, just the stub of Mr. Areddy and Mr. Duehren’s reporting. The core of it was that Mr. Bobulinski had failed to prove the central claim. “Corporate records reviewed by The Wall Street Journal show no role for Joe Biden,” The Journal reported.

Asked about The Journal’s handling of the story, the editor in chief, Matt Murray, said the paper did not discuss its newsgathering. “Our rigorous and trusted journalism speaks for itself,” Mr. Murray said in an emailed statement.

And if you’d been watching the debate, but hadn’t been obsessively watching Fox News or reading Breitbart, you would have had no idea what Mr. Trump was talking about. The story the Trump team hoped would upend the campaign was fading fast.

The gatekeepers return

The McLean group's failed attempt to sway the election is partly just another story revealing the chaotic, threadbare quality of the Trump operation — a far cry from the coordinated “disinformation” machinery feared by liberals.


of particular note: "The core of it was that Mr. Bobulinski had failed to prove the central claim. “Corporate records reviewed by The Wall Street Journal show no role for Joe Biden,” The Journal reported."

so WSJ & that Fox News reporter finding no proof of anything
Anarchist Prime
Sun Oct 25 19:12:45
Putin rejects Donald Trump's criticism of Biden family business


renzo marQuez
Sun Oct 25 19:19:48
the wanderer Sun Oct 25 19:10:20
"of particular note: "The core of it was that Mr. Bobulinski had failed to prove the central claim. “Corporate records reviewed by The Wall Street Journal show no role for Joe Biden,” The Journal reported.""

Lulz. this is like saying meetings never happened because they weren't on Biden's official schedule.
Sun Oct 25 19:36:38
Trump will lose this race because people like tw think hunter only sent 1 text.
Sun Oct 25 19:40:07
You could recognize Biden is a terrible candidate, and still think Trump is worse for various reasons, and we could break those down or w/e, but I could have a modicum of respect for that.

But playing defense for Biden just because he's not Drumpf is fucking...just lulz
Cherub Cow
Sun Oct 25 20:19:03
"Putin rejects Donald Trump's criticism of Biden family business"

That makes sense. It lets him minimize Russian culpability and gives points to Biden. Biden would be the preferred Russian candidate since the DNC has several key policies that would destabilize the U.S.
the wanderer
Sun Oct 25 20:43:57
the emails/texts are impossible to judge as Giuliani suspiciously won't provide the full contents to anyone (& nothing he has put out is clear corruption without adding speculation)

and two conservative outlets have sifted thru Tom Bombadils info and found nothing

plus that coordinated WSJ hit piece indicates there never was legitimate concern about crimes just want the smears for election purposes (same as Trump just wanting Ukraine to announce investigations on Biden rather than expecting results)

... also that is tax-payer funded White House personnel working to help Trumps campaign... investigate that
Tue Oct 27 23:27:38
Fla is a virtual tie most recent poll I seen gives Trump a few point lead, Others give Biden a 2 pt lead.
Tue Oct 27 23:29:19
538 has said that if Trump wins Fla. His chamces.go.from 12% to the 40s.
large member
Wed Oct 28 01:49:04
33% chance of winning overall if he wins florida and a less than 1% chance if he does not.
Wed Oct 28 02:48:45
I Google it, 7 days ago they said 39%. But on the real politics podcast they definitley said it was in the 40s, I want to say 46%.
large member
Wed Oct 28 05:13:51
538 has a calculator. Just flip Florida red to see.
Wed Oct 28 08:57:14
But if Trump wins Florida, his Electoral College chances rise to 39 percent, making the race practically a toss-up.


The calculator may have different results than their model or they may have changed although polls seem to be tightening...but more than just polls go into the model.
large member
Wed Oct 28 09:08:29
A 50% chance of having a 40% chance gives a 20% chance.
Wed Oct 28 09:38:06
Yeah, but it really hinges on PA and FLA.

If Biden loses PA they give him a 30% chance, PA and FLA its even less and both races are in play.Fla has been trending Trump and usually votes Republican.

But Trumps downfall may be that he needs either WI, minnesota or Michigan. And nome of those really seem that in play.
Wed Oct 28 17:14:59
Michigan might go Trump. Wisconsin and Minnesota is not happening for him in 2020.
Wed Oct 28 17:27:22
The polls I just checked have him down 8% in MI.

In legal news, a judge just ruled that you may open carry on election day in MI.
the wanderer
Wed Oct 28 17:33:03
i predict Biden wins MI, but their red legislature decides it was fraudulent & awards electors 50/50 'to be fair'
Wed Oct 28 22:34:50
Trump has a shot in Florida. His best shot at a midwestern swing state was Wisconsin but the huge surge in Coronavirus cases there means that possibility is gone. Pennsylvania is the next best thing and there are a lot of white working-class voters he can draw on but it's still unlikely because Pennsylvania suburbs are basically blue now whereas they use to be swing/red-leaning.

Still the chance is quite remote.

Trump needs to win the white working class by the same 3-to-1 margin he had over Hillary while not pissing anybody else off (which is how he won 2016 despite massively losing the popular vote).

He's only going to win them by 2-to-1 while bleeding almost everywhere else (he's actually gained a few points with minority voters).
Wed Oct 28 22:56:49
Even if Trump takes Fla and PA I think he still needs NC and one MW state to seal the deal.

PA is more Conservative than you might think. Especially in western PA now.

Its the MW states that either the polls arw way off odd that will Trumps Waterloo.
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