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Utopia Talk / Politics / Real wages US
habebe
Member
Mon Oct 26 01:09:12
So this is always a major issue in US politics, but it gets a bunch of BS lip service usually.

During the Debate the one traditional argument that is different was Trump leaned heavy on letting the state's pick the minimum wage and Biden wants a $15/ HR national minimum wage.

The basic arguments being thatthe higher you raise the minimum wage the the less employment you have.

However we have known for some time that data suggests there is a sweet spot, in other words you can raise the MW to a certain amount without noticeably impacting employment, IIRC its in relation to the median wage though the specifics I forget.

I was shocked to find out that 42% of US workers make less than $15/HR!

Thats crazy, I wouldnt get out of bed for less than that.

When I lived in PA, I think it could have worked. I do worry that it would shift more jobs in the South towards larger companies, but the whole pay scale down here is fucking crazy.

I grew up in an area where a very large amount of people made a good living as craftsmen from contractors to Electricians ans such, and you could easily make 60-90k/ year as a sole proprietor.

Down here craftsmen seem to not only be in short supply, but poorly paid.

I personally blame much of that on craftsmen jobs not beung taught im HS like in PA , atleast in my area the tech school was part of HS and many people learned trades from there and got linked up with apprenticeships.

Trumps economy did seem to finally start seeing real wage growth pre covid, so maybe he was on to something.
patom
Member
Mon Oct 26 04:06:18
Not sure but, being one of the oldest here, I've heard the same complaints and cries every time there is talk of a rise in the minimum wage.

One of them is that people will lose their jobs. Now unless you are your family's idiot son and your uncle loves his brother/sister, how many employers actually hire more people than they absolutely need to run their business? It's been my experience that employers only hire more workers after they can't get more production out of their current staff.

Paramount
Member
Mon Oct 26 04:15:41
"I was shocked to find out that 42% of US workers make less than $15/HR! Thats crazy, I wouldnt get out of bed for less than that."


Yeah, but if they raise the salaries then the CEO's and the owners will starve, and the company itself may cease to exist, and that is not good for the country.

A slave wage is just a prize America has to accept. $15 is also better than nothing.
jergul
large member
Mon Oct 26 04:25:44
Giving the working poor more disposable income is easily the best way to pump up the gdp.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Mon Oct 26 04:28:00
American workers should know their place. Who do they think they are, Swedish workers?
patom
Member
Mon Oct 26 07:29:19
Nimatzo, the irony is that low wage earners in Sweden and all of Europe have universal health care. Low wage earners in the US, for the most part, have no health insurance.
jergul
large member
Mon Oct 26 07:41:03
Patom
Yah, if you start calculating the value of free healcare, subsidied perscriptions, post secondary education and child care and adding that to disposable income...

It sort of make you want to pay taxes with a smile.
patom
Member
Mon Oct 26 08:55:40
Problem being too many Americans can't see beyond the word taxes.
Rugian
Member
Mon Oct 26 09:12:25
Minimum wages do need to see an increase. but the federal government is the wrong institution to do it. $15 (or more) is warranted in many places, but not all.

Put pressure on state governments to pass increases for workers over the age of 18, I'm all for that. Combine that with a crackdown on illegal immigrants who depress wages, and cuts in corporate taxes/regulatory hurdles to offset employers' losses from having to pay their employees more.
Rugian
Member
Mon Oct 26 09:20:13
Corporate tax credits for each fulltime employee hired should also be considered, especially as automation and globalization make it increasingly difficult for companies to justify maintaining their current staff levels.
Dakyron
Member
Mon Oct 26 10:13:53
Federal minimum wage should be set low, only as a last resort failsafe.

Minimum wage of $15/hr could let you live like a king in some shitty midwest town, while in SF you would starve to death.

jergul
large member
Mon Oct 26 10:33:53
I think I pay my taxes in the same way you might donate to charity. knowing that the money is going to things I mostly approve of.

Since the Federal government is willing to spend 3 trillion on all kinds of crap, then why not fix stuff.

Criminalize and enforce unregulated labour (be it illegals or tax evading employment)

Amnesty for most current illegals

Seriously fix prisoner pay rates (speaking of something that undercuts wages).

Adjust low SS rates and welfare to match increases in wages.

Leglislate a national 15 dollar an hour minimum wage with automatic inflation adjustment yearly

Introduce trade union protections to increase membership rates and ensure the minimum wage is not the maximum wage.

There. I fixed you.
jergul
large member
Mon Oct 26 10:34:53
Daky
A minimum wage scheme like what I wrote out would fix shitty midwest towns. So no living like a king on minimum wage.
Rugian
Member
Mon Oct 26 10:38:33
"A minimum wage scheme like what I wrote out would fix shitty midwest towns."

Lol at these jergulnomics. All you did was create runaway inflation and a prompt an employee flight to offshoring and modular construction.
Rugian
Member
Mon Oct 26 10:38:50
*employer flight
jergul
large member
Mon Oct 26 10:54:29
Ruggy
The 1980s called and want their inflation fears back.

A viable society pays people living wages. But perhaps you are right. Perhaps your society is not viable.
habebe
Member
Mon Oct 26 12:58:49
"Seriously fix prisoner pay rates (speaking of something that undercuts wages)."

This is a complaint as old as Caesar. But valid.

As for automation it seems stupid to me to fight automation. Better to give those impacted by automation something similar to a
UBI and offer training into other fields.

It would be like fighting the cotton gin and paying employers not to use it and hire more labor intensive jobs.Yang is on to something.

I also think people jave this notion that its just blue collard workers that will lose jobs. In reality ot depends, data entry, legal research are jobs for example that will be replaced way before mechanics, plumbers and electricians.
habebe
Member
Mon Oct 26 13:00:43
PAtom , MW laws will lower emplpyment, it only at certain levels.

Common sense says if you make MW $100/hour employment will drop. I think it's arpund 50% of the median wage.Dont quote me on that number.
Rugian
Member
Mon Oct 26 13:47:15
Jergul

There are many areas of the country where the a living wage comes in at away less than $15/hour. Pumping it up that high would be a major shock to those areas.

Though you may be right about the inflation angle. More likely, you would just kill the economies of those areas outright, as businesses shuttered/moved elsewhere.
Rugian
Member
Mon Oct 26 13:47:43
*way less than $15
habebe
Member
Mon Oct 26 14:00:14
Jergul, Instead of tieing tye MW to inflation I think it would be better to tie to the median wage to a region/state.
habebe
Member
Mon Oct 26 14:04:06
Id be interested to see what really happens with
$15/MW. It could just play as a subsidy to poorer states, which is a good thing.
jergul
large member
Mon Oct 26 15:02:48
Ruggy
I think it important to lift low end SS and welfare at the same time.

Ultimately, the change would be to decrease income inequality.

habebe
One of the more important parts of thise is to increase price harmony in the US
Forwyn
Member
Mon Oct 26 15:10:12
Why would there need to be price harmony between Louisiana and New Hampshire?

Is there price harmony between Greece and Germany?
Rugian
Member
Mon Oct 26 15:35:11
Yeah, there is no need (and should be no desire) for price harmony.

And that's assuming it's even possible. Jergul isnt taking into consideration basic demand fundamentals, like if a house in San Francisco will fetch the same asking price as a house in Adams County, North Dakota. The fact is that things cost what they do, where they do, for market-driven reasons, and not even jergulnomics cant change that.
jergul
large member
Mon Oct 26 15:41:23
Forwyn
Seb can chat for hours on why there should be a greater degree of price harmony. But its a symptom of a balanced economy. So a metric, not a goal.

Ruggy
Variations from the norm due to property prices driving up costs is fine.

A more balanced internal economy is just as important as better balance in international economy.

Problem is, the people getting butt-fucked by megapolis centric policies don't have a voice and when they do, its the crazy uncle voice of donald trump.
kargen
Member
Mon Oct 26 15:47:10
"A viable society pays people living wages."

Living wages are a good idea. A national minimum wage has been and always will be a bad idea. Even at the state level it is a bad idea.

A living wage based on cost of living inside school districts could be one way to go. Would work for rural areas. In more urban settings they might need to do an average of local districts.

A $15 minimum wage where I live would cause the only grocery store and only convenience store within twenty miles to close their doors for good.
In 2012 I bought my house here and paid $11,500 for it. Three bedroom two bath large family room large yard and two sheds. The house was ready to move in when I bought it but I spent another 10k stripping all the walls, replacing all the electrical wiring and redoing the floors.

In Dallas I was paying $550 a month for a shit studio apartment that was really small. I could put a 15' cord on my headphones and go anywhere in the apartment with room to spare.
habebe
Member
Mon Oct 26 15:55:05
Jergul, I'm on the fence, basically because I'm unsure of the outcome.

Kargens idea of school districts is intriguing. Id love to see what happened if a state mandated the minimum wage to 60% of the median income of a school district.

It may be too confusing and easier to go by county.
patom
Member
Mon Oct 26 16:03:14
Kargan, you are right. Some areas the cost of housing is cheap. Other than that what else is cheaper?
I lived in Washington County Maine. One of if not the lowest per capita income county on the east coast and most of east of the Mississippi River. When I worked at the Jail I was making just over $16 per hour. Doing but not getting rich. The cost of everything else besides a house wasn't cheaper. Gas was on average 10 to 15 cents more a gallon. Groceries were a little higher. Clothing was pretty much the same but selection was limited. Most people make the 90 mile trip to Bangor or further south to Portland.
In short, aint nobody gonna be living high on the hog at $15 per hour.
If you live in NYC, LA, Philly, or any other major city in this country $15 per hour will barely cut it. Especially the fact that many at that rate have minimum if any benefits.
jergul
large member
Mon Oct 26 17:09:15
Kargen
Minimum wages is not a good solution, but its the only solution you have.

You are overemphasing the benefits of cheaper housing.

Patom
Some areas might want to mandate a higher minimum wage than a federal rate.
jergul
large member
Mon Oct 26 17:11:08
Habebe
So, lift the baseline nationally, then lift even more at district level if there is enough local pressure to see that done.

Perhaps people making their case collectively to get the best agreement they can bargain for?
chuck
Member
Mon Oct 26 17:52:35
> A $15 minimum wage where I live would cause the only grocery store and only convenience store within twenty miles to close their doors for good.

Does that include an intermediate step where they first pass on the increased cost to buyers and all the buyers start travelling >20 miles for their groceries, or are you assuming the grocery store would keep their prices the same?
Habebe
Member
Mon Oct 26 17:55:12
Jergul, Maybe, but something would likely have be done for those that get waged out of a job or automated out of one which this will speed up.
Rugian
Member
Mon Oct 26 18:06:17
Who is more heavily affected by price increases, the poor or the rich?

Of course businesses will increase their costs to compensate for the additional employee expense. The ones that choose to stay, anyway. The rest will offshore or automate, or relocate to larger centers of employment (why pay an Idahoan 15 an hour when you can pay a New Yorker the same amount and be much closer to major eds and meds institutions?)

The bottom line is that jergulnomics will just cause severe inflation and economic implosion in places where 15/hour isn't needed. Oh look, now I can spend 6 bucks on milk in Alabama. Yay.

And nothing offered so far explains why 15 is the magic number, or why it needs to be a federal minimum.
Habebe
Member
Mon Oct 26 18:08:20
Has this drastic of a MW increase been recorded in a relevant country? Do we have data on that?
Rugian
Member
Mon Oct 26 18:12:04
habebe

For comparative purposes, you'd need a relevant country that had both a drastic MW increase AND a CBA mandate implemented.
kargen
Member
Mon Oct 26 18:33:21
"Minimum wages is not a good solution, but its the only solution you have.

Let's make shit worse isn't a solution. And yeah there are several solutions other than a federally mandated minimum wage.

"Does that include an intermediate step where they first pass on the increased cost to buyers and all the buyers start travelling >20 miles for their groceries, or are you assuming the grocery store would keep their prices the same?"

The convenience store could survive for a while. They already cut back on employees though when Colorado raised the minimum wage and have cut back the hours they are open. At some point it wouldn't be worth the effort to try and stay open.

The grocery store has raised the prices again because of the minimum wage increase the state forced on them. They also cut back on employee hours. The grocery store is community owned with several in town owning shares. It was the only way to keep a grocery store here in town. The model used here has been looked at as something that could save store in other town across the country.
They have a system where fresh foods cost more but they keep canned goods and stuff like that competitive. With each increase in minimum wage they must either cut back hours or raise prices. Either solution makes driving the forty miles more cost effective for people picking up more than just a few things.

The point being though these cookie cutter fixes governments keep implementing often do not consider rural areas and they end up causing more harm than good in these areas.

As an example Colorado decided all landfills must put down 6 inches of dirt every day over the layers of garbage. Once a week they are suppose to put down an extra 12 inches. The landfill here only took garbage in twice a week and at nowhere near the level that it needed to be covered each time. Five of the six landfills in this area were closed.
The cost of hauling the trash to the remaining open landfill along with the hassle and time involved has caused some to start burning trash they used to send to the landfill.
Just like minimum wage what might work for Denver doesn't work out on the plains.
jergul
large member
Mon Oct 26 23:30:22
Ruggy
You cannot argue that a reform increasing the wages and benefits of the poor is not good for them because those increases would mean everything costs more for them.

Everything becomes relatively less expensive for everyone seeing a wage bump. Everything becomes slightly more expensive for those not seeing the wage bump.

15 is an arbitrary number. And wtf is up with rampant inflation again? You conceeded that point earlier.

Kargen
Landfills? Wtf? What century are you living in?
habebe
Member
Tue Oct 27 00:59:54
It has been argued though that the MW law was one of the most racist laes on the books.Since historically it has impacted blacks much harsher with the underemployment aspect.
jergul
large member
Tue Oct 27 01:17:35
What year was that argued? 1858?

We cannot free the slaves. What could they possibly do with themselves?
jergul
large member
Tue Oct 27 01:18:47
You realize that you are arguing against productivity gains, right?

We cannot increase productivity because think of all the jobs that will disapear.
habebe
Member
Tue Oct 27 01:36:26
1. I wasnt arguing it.

2. Your discounting that many jobs are just not worth the expense of 15/hr labor.

Also historically in the US MW have negatively impacted black Americans more than whites. So it isnt an insane theory.

Again im on the fence, leaning towards that. Worst case scenario if it epically fails it will get reversed. If it moderately fails, well it has some moderate gains probably as well so, meh.
kargen
Member
Tue Oct 27 01:41:11
jergul many unions have their wages set on a sliding scale related to minimum wages. If minimum wages go up for example 5% union wages would go up 7%. Numbers are not actual numbers but used to make the point. So if minimum wages increase goods made by union workers would increase more than what the minimum wage would compensate.

What do you do with your garbage, sprinkle fairy dust on it and hope it goes away?
jergul
large member
Tue Oct 27 01:47:59
You continue to argue against productivity gains.

Lots of jobs will go away. In prisons as improved incomes decrease crime. In policing as community prosperity give safer neighbourhoods.

Lots of new jobs will emerge because consumers will have more money and local governments will have a better tax base.

This is a problem only for people earning more than minimum wage (remember that ss and welfare also need to be adjusted concurrently). They will pay more to cover the cost of increased labour input that is not caught by productivity increases.

You would also need to criminalize employers accepting false employment documentation like bogus social insurance numbers.

Though that would have to go hand in hand with an amnesty.
jergul
large member
Tue Oct 27 01:52:11
Kargen
Unions don't set wages. Employers do after negotiation with their employees, either singly or collectively.

Recycling including heat and electricity generation from incineration. Hey, you should do that. It creates jobs and provides value.

Scary that you had to ask.
Habebe
Member
Tue Oct 27 03:18:40
What does the data say?
jergul
large member
Tue Oct 27 04:09:47
What data?
jergul
large member
Tue Oct 27 04:29:15
15 dollars was perhaps arbitrary, but has been studied.

"In an average week in 2025, the $15 option would boost the wages of 17 million workers who would otherwise earn less than $15 per hour. Another 10 million workers otherwise earning slightly more than $15 per hour might see their wages rise as well. But 1.3 million other workers would become jobless, according to CBO’s median estimate. There is a two-thirds chance that the change in employment would be between about zero and a decrease of 3.7 million workers. The number of people with annual income below the poverty threshold in 2025 would fall by 1.3 million"

http://www.../CBO-55410-MinimumWage2019.pdf

This is why I said that low end pensions and welfare also need to see a similar % bump. More money to the poor means more consumption means more jobs.

Phasing out unproductive jobs that are not viable at 15 dollars an hour is a good thing, not a bad one.

Though what would actually happen is that the 15 bucks would be for adults 18+, so youth employment would cover some of the non-viable jobs.
Rugian
Member
Tue Oct 27 04:30:36
Jergul

Inflation is a basic component of what you're proposing. If the cost of milk is currently $3 in Alabama, it would be $6 under your ideas.

And how are you arguing that such a huge increase wouldn't lead to equally huge job losses? This is something that is broadly accepted among economists. We shouldn't need to argue over basic "water is wet" statements.

Amnesty is not necessary when deportation is an option. Which it always is.
Rugian
Member
Tue Oct 27 04:31:57
"Phasing out unproductive jobs that are not viable at 15 dollars an hour is a good thing, not a bad one."

Like janitorial, maintenance, and landscaping? Lol
jergul
large member
Tue Oct 27 04:40:36
Hired labour is 7% of milk production costs. So say 15 USD is a 35% wage increase. This gives a 2.5% increase in price.

Feel free to add 2.5% other places in the value chain too. Also, feel free to be more realistic about the numbers you pull out of your ass. Inflated numbers mean a loose anus.

http://www...-cost-of-production-estimates/

What part of capitalism don't you understand. Important jobs get the productivity gain. Unimportant jobs are phased out or handed off to youth labour.
jergul
large member
Tue Oct 27 04:42:36
Also, your economy is way too reliant on illegal immigration to ship them out of country.

Just fix the laws to criminalise employers hiring illegally, but grandfather in existing migrants.
patom
Member
Tue Oct 27 04:54:15
I just had a MW flash back when reading an earlier post. Someone suggested a MW comparison with another country.
OK, Canada came to mind. I can recall, not to many years ago when our MW was around $7, Canada's was $10.
99.999% or US MW earners had '0' health benefits while 100% of Canadian workers had full health coverage.
What MW in the US would be required to match Canadian standards?
Rugian
Member
Tue Oct 27 05:01:49
Cost increases would be reflected along all levels of the supply chain, not just the cost of direct labor at one step of it. That means everyone from farmhands to deliverymen to warehouse workers to grocery store employees needing to be paid more. It also means higher fuel costs, pricier building rents, and more expensive capital equipment.

And good luck getting your average 14 year old to clean office shitters.
Rugian
Member
Tue Oct 27 05:21:08
Patom

You are not taking into account state and local MWs. The effective minimum wage for the US is actually more like $12/hour.
jergul
large member
Tue Oct 27 05:29:48
Ruggy
So 35% more wages to buy stuff that is now 5-15% more expensive. Sounds horrible.

Capitalism bro. Pay market wages for office maintenance.

The 15 USD is in 2025 dollars btw.
Rugian
Member
Tue Oct 27 05:32:53
Jergul

Try 100% fewer wages to buy stuff thats 35% more expensive.
jergul
large member
Tue Oct 27 05:40:06
Ruggy
My premise is that welfare and low end pensions also need a similar % buff to increase consumer spending and provide a net increase in jobs after raising the minimum wage.

Do away with unproductive jobs that are not viable in a modern economy.

Improve working conditions along with pay by doing away with unproductive jobs that are not viable in a modern economy.

Pull places like where kargen lives kicking and screaming into the 20th century (the 21st is a bridge too far).
Rugian
Member
Tue Oct 27 05:49:18
jergul

Ah, so we are also talking massive tax increases then. I'm sure the companies already taking the hit for higher labor costs are going to appreciate that.

So employees are more expensive and my tax bill is higher. Meanwhile, your premise is that a consumption glut is going to cause companies to create tens of millions of hitherto nonexistent high-paying jobs.

See the contradiction there?

Blue collar workers in flyover states have been told for decades by coastal elites to "just find better jobs" to replace the ones they've lost. The result is Donald Trump is president.
Rugian
Member
Tue Oct 27 05:51:32
I wish you had been around in the 70s. If only those Rust Belt states had been able to take your advice and jack up their minimum wages, that surely would have compensated for all of the manufacturing jobs lost.
jergul
large member
Tue Oct 27 06:14:45
Ruggy
No, we are not speaking of tax increases. It turns out you can run any kind of federal deficit you like.

The estimate is 1.5 million unproductive jobs being elliminated. Increased consumption would easily recapture that loss if social benefits are also enhanced.

I would probably anchor all of this to a green new deal initiative in any event.

The Feds just pissed away 3 trillion dollars, so obviously everything is possible.

jergul
large member
Tue Oct 27 06:15:11
Me in the 70s: Dont make crap cars.
patom
Member
Tue Oct 27 09:52:24
If you want to bring some manufacturing jobs back that require humans, try the textile/clothing industry.
Stop allowing companies like Nike from writing off advertising in this country. If it isn't made here you don't get to have the US taxpayers make up the difference in the revenue stream to the general fund.
Dakyron
Member
Tue Oct 27 10:25:06
Why do we want shitty manufacturing jobs in the US? These would inevitably be filled by immigrants from central/south America and have shitty pay and benefits.
jergul
large member
Tue Oct 27 10:33:23
Patom
You don't want to race to the bottom. Labour intensive industry belongs in the dustbins of history.

The best way to combine industry with well paying jobs is to have as much automation and capital investment as possible. The labour contribution to production costs becomes minute, but is highly skilled.
Rugian
Member
Tue Oct 27 11:17:31
Jergul

We're talking about tax increases. If Biden wins next week, deficits are going to matter to the GOP again.

1.5 million losses is the CBO estimate assuming a 2025 wage and no other variables. Unfortunately for them, its only 2020 and you're also proposing tax increases and severe regulatory hurdles via a GND. Those are aggravating factors.

And on top of that, you want mandatory universal CBAs. Are you kidding?

The fact is that there will never be enough white collar jobs for every person of employment age, and your ideas would absolutely devastate the blue and pink collar professions.

Good luck telling the millions of people that you're putting out of work that they just need to go to college and learn an entirely new profession. The opoid dealers at least will be thrilled with the resulting despair.
jergul
large member
Tue Oct 27 11:34:37
Ruggy
I am proposing deficit spending. I am not proposing CBA.

The suggestion without a low end pension and welfare boost nets 1.5 million in job losses. With the consumer boost I suggest, it gives a net increase in jobs.

So more blue, pink and white coloured jobs at vastly improved conditions.

The opoid dealers are happy with your status quo.
jergul
large member
Tue Oct 27 11:35:47
You are a pretty good example of LBJs you can treat a white man as poorly as you like for as long as he can look down on a negro.
Habebe
Member
Tue Oct 27 13:01:18
Jergul is making some decent points here.Mainly the CBO projections. Tge benefits seem to outweigh the negatives.

Btw, janitors and landscapers all make 15/hr or close to it already.

Now I do wonder of the accuracy of the numbers, they dont seem to line up with the 42 million claim.

But lets assume the CBO numbers are true. We must offer those who wpuld lose their jobs by this an income and training/apprenticeship. Now we would need a feasibility study on that bit Ivanka already jas a good start called "trysomethingelse" or something.
Habebe
Member
Tue Oct 27 13:34:27
This coupled with abolishing employer healthcare would work.

Dumbest leftist idea yet was employer HC.I dont get paid in food why should I get paid in HC?
Habebe
Member
Tue Oct 27 14:03:38
Let me put it this way. If CBO projections are right foes anyome think its not worth losing 1.3 million jobs for that much of a net benefit to poor families?
patom
Member
Tue Oct 27 14:48:50
Habebe, employer paid health coverage was not a leftist idea. During WWII there were restrictions on pay. In order to attract new or better employees the companies used health coverage benefits as a lure.
Once in place it has been a bitch to get rid of. Now it is the tail that wags the dog.
Habebe
Member
Tue Oct 27 14:51:43
Paton, Yes I know the well thing. But to ignore labor's part is disingenuous.
Habebe
Member
Tue Oct 27 14:52:29
Also the only reason its there is that we tax insurance if you buy it yourself not with the employer.
Habebe
Member
Tue Oct 27 14:56:13
Had to catch my breath, was chainsawing an old tree that's taking up space, my chaim saw isnt fully up to the task but it will work. They came down durring a hurricane and its just taking up valuable space...plus I'll senf of the remains to my sister for firewood, should last a while.
Habebe
Member
Tue Oct 27 17:14:48
I do wonder where these job losses wpuls take, likely the south and Midwest mostly.

Which what we should do is figure out where these jobs will be lost and what jobs and find out if we can train them or supplement them with other jobs and what it would.cost.
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