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Utopia Talk / Politics / Cuck Island: Back 2 Da Lockdown
renzo marQuez
Member
Sat Oct 31 15:07:25
Coronavirus: England to enter month-long lockdown from Thursday, PM announces

http://new...thursday-pm-announces-12120114
Paramount
Member
Sat Oct 31 15:23:33
Same in France...

French President Emmanuel Macron has announced a second national lockdown until at least the end of November.

Mr Macron said that under the new measures, starting on Friday, people would only be allowed to leave home for essential work or medical reasons.


^ that sounds pretty harsh
obaminated
Member
Sat Oct 31 16:21:00
Remember seb was talking about how great the UK was doing? If he had any self awareness he would begin to question his confidence in the ability of his government to maintain the kungflu.
hood
Member
Sat Oct 31 16:24:21
Seb routinely trashed the UK response.
obaminated
Member
Sat Oct 31 16:51:32
Then why do i fondly recall seb talking about how great the uk reacted in comparison to the us?
hood
Member
Sat Oct 31 17:17:00
I wouldn't dare to delve into the morbid depths of your psyche. But you're likely greatly embellishing Seb saying that the UK reacted better than the US and combined it with the oft erroneous assumption that "better than X" means "great." As the saying goes: polish a turd, it's still a turd. The UK can have both a better response than the US and still be abysmal. The US didn't set the bar very high.
Forwyn
Member
Sat Oct 31 17:44:13
Yes, Seb whined quite extensively that the brief weeks in which they experimented with the Sweden model doomed the nation - they needed a hard lockdown from the moment they had a patient zero, sitting in the dark eating hardtack until the British police state could be aligned to renditioning contacts, as a bridge to a vaccine.

The healthcare system collapse he and others here forecasted will happen any day now.
Rugian
Member
Sat Oct 31 17:56:49
Seb should honestly move to the People's Republic of China. He'd be more at home there.

He has no business being in a part of the world that values individual liberties in even the slightest.

Please leave, Seb. You are a cancer upon both the country and civilization which you are currently living in, but clearly have no affinity for. Beijing would be a much better place for "people" of your ilk.
Pillz
Member
Sat Oct 31 19:01:49
"Yes, Seb whined quite extensively that the brief weeks in which they experimented with the Sweden model doomed the nation - they needed a hard lockdown from the moment they had a patient zero,"

This.

Seb
Member
Sun Nov 01 08:11:18
Obaminated:

I described the UK as being the second worst country in handling the pandemic of the large developed countries in the world.

The worst being the US.

Seb
Member
Sun Nov 01 08:15:09
Forwyn/Rugian:

90% of UK deaths are attributable to the delay in the first lockdown.

Whether you think the govt deserves to be held responsible for the delay, the majority of the UK think the deaths were a bad thing that ought to have been avoided if they could.

Very few people embrace your death cult approach.



Rugian
Member
Sun Nov 01 08:16:11
French case counts:

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_France

So much for the efficacy of hard lockouts. The only way for France to have avoided the second wave was to keep their lock down in place permanently. Yet Seb denies thats what he's wanted for the UK.
adelaide
Member
Sun Nov 01 08:44:11
http://wbn...local-case-1st-time-in-months/

Australia has recorded no new locally transmitted coronavirus infection for the first time in five months.

In Melbourne, the capital of Victoria state, which had the highest number of cases in the country, residents were enjoying the first weekend of cafes, restaurants and pubs reopening to walk-in customers.
Rugian
Member
Sun Nov 01 09:43:25
"Australia has recorded no new locally transmitted coronavirus infection for the first time in five months."

Yeah, that ain't gonna last. You're just in between waves right now. Eventually you're going to have another spike in cases, and back to lockdown you'll go.
renzo marQuez
Member
Sun Nov 01 09:49:58
Not necessarily. With extreme border control measures combined with mass testing, countries can avoid getting pozzed.
Seb
Member
Sun Nov 01 10:44:04
Rugian:

Why do you even bother with such egregious lies rugian?

Why do the spikes show you need permanent lockdown, as opposed to periodic two week circuit breaks every three months?
Seb
Member
Sun Nov 01 10:46:15
It was widely reported in France during the summer that people were flooding to the south, cramming into shared pools and too closely on the beaches and spreading the disease back when they went home.

If you thought that lockdown meant the disease had gone away, that's obviously stupid and was never the proposition.
Rugian
Member
Sun Nov 01 11:08:29
Where in the world have restrictions lasting two weeks on, ten weeks off, been shown to be effective?

And the French acted as they did because they are human beings, and human beings tend to congregate with one another. If you are arguing that people should instead continue to remain in isolation during the ten weeks' periods, then you are proposing that lockdowns should remain in effect, just on a less formal basis.
Seb
Member
Sun Nov 01 12:50:06
Rugian:

Show me where it's been tried and failed.

It's a fairly simple thing to look at the changes to R and the decay rate and work out what level you need to get to such that a pattern like that would work. Granted, a Humanities grad like you might find that hard to get your head around.

Why do you think it would *not* work?

"And the French acted as they did because they are human beings, and human beings tend to congregate with one another"
They tend to get sick and die too. They also get angry and kill each other. Presumably you be wouldn't argue the French shouldn't try to control the mad Islamists hacking people's heads of. What's your point?

"If you are arguing that people should instead continue to remain in isolation during the ten weeks' periods"

Thankfully, that's not what I'm arguing, so we can safely ignore it.

Until the vaccine comes along, social distancing remains necessary. By all means socialise, but pool parties with 100 people in a 10 metre pool are probably not a good idea.

Your are saying social distancing = lockdown, which is absurd.

France ended it's first lockdown on 15 June, should have done a circuit break nationally about 1st sept. Cases then were about 75/m; given the rate of tail off last time, they'd have been back to single figures per million after three weeks and they'd have been able to open up.

In any case, a vaccine will likely be available before the end of the year and the UK expects everyone over 50 to be vaccinated by Easter.

So this talk of to indefinite lockdown is absurd.




Seb
Member
Sun Nov 01 12:53:25
FYI that's 72 days of no lockdown for 21 days of lockdown in the above example.
sam adams
Member
Sun Nov 01 22:40:17
It is hilarious that seb thought he and his bureaucrats could control this with "tracking", and yet failed this badly.
Seb
Member
Mon Nov 02 03:16:34
Sad, Sam thought that the US was a third world country, and supports Trump surrendering to the virus.
renzo marQuez
Member
Mon Nov 02 05:23:19
Seb
Member Mon Nov 02 03:16:34
"Sad, Sam thought that the US was a third world country, and supports Trump surrendering to the virus."

Trump had and defeated Chinese Cringe AIDS. No surrender there.
sam adams
Member
Mon Nov 02 13:05:55
"Sam thought that the US was a third world country"

Only the parts that are most like seb's dreamland: unchecked migration, decreased white/western influence, decades of welfare dependence, high taxes, and entrenched left-wing policies, businesses driven away.

Also they thought they could implement track and trace too. Why do leftist bureaucrats ever think they can succeed? You always fail.
Pillz
Member
Mon Nov 02 13:58:13
"90% of UK deaths are attributable to the delay in the first lockdown."

This is just plain false. Every country has the same cases vs. Deaths curve in the spring.

Because the health systems failed to treat patients effectively and it was allowed to burn through seniors.

Youre absolutely retarded you fucking cum guzzling cuckold faggot
Rugian
Member
Mon Nov 02 15:06:42
Seb

"Show me where it's been tried and failed."

No, this is not how this works. YOU'RE the one proposing draconian and unprecedented restrictions on the civil liberties of millions of people, so the onus is on you to show us example countries where your policy has worked, whose results can be replicated in our countries.

We all get drunk and post stupid things on here sometimes, so I'll be gentle here and just pretend that you didn't just try to equate basic human interactions with acts of murder.

"France ended it's first lockdown on 15 June, should have done a circuit break nationally about 1st sept."

Jesus. So we're supposed to go into lockdown every time cases spike? Even when the spike is concentrated in less vulnerable groups like the young?

"Your are saying social distancing = lockdown, which is absurd."

Its a softer form of lockdown. How can you say that the "reopened" UK was anywhere near the same as it was in the summer of last year? Yes, you could walk around in public again without fear of being stalked by a police drone, but there were still a whole hell lot of things you couldn't do.

"In any case, a vaccine will likely be available before the end of the year and the UK expects everyone over 50 to be vaccinated by Easter.

So this talk of to indefinite lockdown is absurd."

And, again, what if a vaccine WASNT coming? What if it took three, five, ten years to develop an effective vaccine? Would you be advocating for lockouts continuing for a full decade in that situation?

I ask because there's a good chance this won't be the last pandemic that we see in our lifetimes, and the next one might require a significantly longer time to create a vaccine. And since your preferred response to pandemics seems to be "intermittent lockouts until vaccine is distributed," you are potentially advocating for restrictions that could be generational in duration.
Seb
Member
Mon Nov 02 16:06:52
Rugian:

"No, this is not how this works."

That's exactly how it works. If it works your way, nothing new could ever happen until it has been demonstrated to work in practice.

We have actual data on how the virus fell off and at what rate during the last lockdown, and how long it remained low.

Why is this not credible to you? Why are you instead asking for an example of this exact policy and not accepting the real world data that can be used to model the policy?
Seb
Member
Mon Nov 02 16:22:02
"So we're supposed to go into lockdown every time cases spike"

Rugian, lockdown and circuit break are different. Circuit break involves less sectors shutting down.

"How can you say that the "reopened" UK was anywhere near the same as it was in the summer of last year?"

There was no legal enforcement for the social distancing rules. I think you have to just accept that during a pandemic, a lot of people are going to modify their behaviour anyway - you might as well do guidelines so at least that's coordinated and more effective action.

This idea that somehow you can ignore the pandemic is a bit of wishful thinking on your part.

"And, again, what if a vaccine WASNT coming?"
But it is, so I'm not sure what you are really getting at? You trying to construct an argument that we should treat a four week lockdown light (it's less severe than the march lockdown) as indefinite detention even when you know it isn't the case. That's insane rugian. The fact you aren't willing to engage with the proposition as it stands and invent these delusional counterfactuals shows how weak your argument really is.

The next pandemic might be as deadly as, say the black death. Will you be against lockdowns then? This is a stupid and hysterical line of argument rugian, even for you.

Let's deal with the hear and now. A vaccine is around the corner: are you really arguing that four weeks of lockdown light aren't worth it?

And wouldn't it have been better if it had been even lighter, only two weeks long, four weeks earlier?

Rugian
Member
Mon Nov 02 16:38:08
Seb

Yes, we have the better part of a year's worth of data, from several hundred national and subnational plans to fight Covid.

The results are clear. Unless you are a remote island nation that goes full Trump-style on foreign entries, or an authoritarian regime that can simply lie about its case counts, containing Covid can only be done on a temporary basis at best.

The virus is just too easily spread, and no amount of government diktats can change that.

Everything you've proposed has been a failure so far

-Track and trace was supposed to be the magic solution for countries that managed to get their cases down; now even Germany has admitted that it can't track more than a small percentage of people who have been identified as infected.

-Lockdowns were supposed to help us stop Covid in its tracks long enough for us to get a vaccine. That clearly hasn't happened, and in the meantime the economic and social damage caused by them is now widely considered to have been needlessly destructive.

-Robust testing regimes were supposed to help us find and prevent new outbreaks. In reality, confirmed case counts probably outnumber actual case counts by an order to magnitude. Too many people are asymptomatic.

-Social distancing was supposed to help stop the spread, but it goes against the basic nature of mankind and was never practical without draconian government enforcement.

You have been wrong this entire time, having gone down an errant path ever since you were mistakenly led to believe that the Chinese Communist Party's "lock down everything" approach was something to be commended. The reality is, we just need to accept this virus is among us, and reopen accordingly, taking care to protect the most vulnerable among us.

Anything else is pure insanity.
sam adams
Member
Mon Nov 02 20:05:46
"We have actual data on how the virus fell off and at what rate during the last lockdon, and how long it remained low."

And now its back seb, despite your claim you would be able to trace out of it. And your economy is locked down again. Lol@you.

"Social distancing was supposed to help stop the spread, but it goes against the basic nature of mankind"

I dont entirely agree. Obvious mass gatherings are a bad idea. Concerts, live sports, megachurches, are all rightly cancelled. Left-wing riots should have been crushed quickly. In person classes, bars, clubs should be reduced or canceled.

But none of those things are particularly important economically, and a lot of them can be done well remotely.

Economically important activity with more moderate contact should of course continue. The virus is not dangerous enough to justify a total lockdown, but it is bad enough to cancel the least important mass-contact events.

Smart people(ie non-sebs) realized this in about June.
sam adams
Member
Mon Nov 02 20:07:00
Also i suppose live sports like soccer, womyns basketball, and the like can contine in person, as they never have more than a few fans anyway.
Seb
Member
Tue Nov 03 02:03:28
Rugian:

Failure isn't binary. I know you'd love it to be, but countries have had greater or lesser impacts from the virus depending on the measures they've taken.

I don't know why you pretend that's not true. How could I? I'm not a psychiatrist.

Track and trace has a capacity threshold, yes. That was explicitly the case from the beginning and part of the reason lockdowns were needed (to get under the threshold). I said so repeatedly.

Where track and trace programs have been effective, they've been able to keep under that threshold for a long time.

Lockdowns were not supposed to be maintained until a vaccine came, that's a flat out lie on your part. They were meant to get the levels down sufficiently that a combination of social distancing, test and trace and other measures could keep the disease prevalence low enough while the economy was open while a vaccine was developed. In that, it had been successful. Had the growth rates continued at trend rates as they would have without lockdown, deaths would have reached three millions by now across Europe.

"reality, confirmed case counts probably outnumber actual case counts by an order to magnitude."
Asymptotic cases still spread the virus your blithering idiot.

"but it goes against the basic nature of mankind"
Emotive claptrap.

"The reality is, we just need to accept this virus is among us"
What is this? The 12 step program where we submit to a to higher power? You want to talk about human nature: human nature is to tackle problems, not roll over apathetically because it's just too hard.

"taking care to protect the most vulnerable among us."

And how, exactly, are you going to protect the most vulnerable? The whole point of track and trace was to try and do that. I suspect this is where we are going to hear how human nature and the need for close social relations is suddenly very flexible for the vulnerable.

Sam:
"And now its back seb, despite your claim you would be able to trace out of it. And your economy is locked down again. Lol@you."

Yes, and? If we hadn't locked down, do you not think the rate of infection would have continued to grow at the rates we saw in march and April?

"The virus is not dangerous enough to justify a total lockdow"
You realise what you've described prior to this is actually what the UK govt did for most of lockdown? The only difference is closure of schools in the first wave; and a short period of closure of non-essential high street retail.

What you've described is actually more extreme than the proposed circuit break which the scientific advisors recommended in late sept.

All things you have derided.


You are arguing against yourself.
Seb
Member
Tue Nov 03 02:05:55
Test and trace can keep disease prevalence low: it's been effective in doing so. It's not a silver bullet; and other measures may be needed (ideally locally) when the disease threatens to exceed those limits.

If you refuse to enact those measures, eventually you either need to accept unchecked spread like in the US (which Sam and Rugian think it's successful); or more stringent measures to get the disease back into manageable levels.

This isn't exactly rocket science.
Pillz
Member
Tue Nov 03 08:41:49
Almost a year of being wrong, but Seb won't give up.

Dakyron
Member
Tue Nov 03 08:50:34
"Test and trace can keep disease prevalence low: it's been effective in doing so."

Where?

" back into manageable levels"

Manageable levels would be anyplace where the healthcare system is not overwhelmed. Only a handful of high density population centers have seen that level of COVID cases.

"unchecked spread like in the US"

Incorrect.
Renzo Marquez
Member
Wed Feb 10 08:47:30
Cuck Island Update:

http://www...rce=Twitter#Echobox=1612890631

Midwives have been told to say “chestfeeding” instead of “breastfeeding” and to replace the term “mother” with “mother or birthing parent” as part of moves to be more trans-friendly.
Sam Adams
Member
Wed Feb 10 09:23:07
Seb
Member Tue Nov 03 02:05:55
Test and trace can keep disease prevalence low: it's been effective in doing so.

Rofl this is gold.

"Cuck island" is also rofl.
Dukhat
Member
Wed Feb 10 10:45:09
The Lockdowns are draconian but are responses to morons who don't know how to be responsible.

Look at Japan. They've had really minor lockdowns comapared to the rest of the world. They just tend to be way cleaner and my hygienic and better at listening to guidelines.

Germany has issues too but still much better than England and France.

If the hospitals get overcrowded, governments have no choice but to declare a lockdown. Nobody wants to fuck up their economy.
Rugian
Member
Wed Feb 10 11:48:55
"Nobody wants to fuck up their economy."

Democrats did.
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