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Utopia Talk / Politics / Redistricting -Big win for Republicans
habebe
Member
Thu Nov 19 13:48:19
http://www...edistricting-was-at-stake/amp/

FiveThirtyEight

UPDATED 5:59 AM | NOV. 18, 2020
Republicans Won Almost Every Election Where Redistricting Was At Stake
By Nathaniel Rakich and Elena Mejía

Filed under 2020 Election

Joe Biden may have won the White House, but down-ballot races were much better for Republicans. In fact, the GOP’s victories in state-level elections could pay dividends long after Biden leaves office, thanks to their influence over next year’s redistricting process.

[Related: Republicans Are On Track To Take Back The House In 2022]

Every 10 years, after the census, congressional and state legislature districts are redrawn to account for population changes. This gives whoever is drawing the maps the power to maximize the number of districts that favor their party — a tactic known as gerrymandering. And as we wrote last month, the 2020 election represented the last chance for voters to weigh in on who would draw those maps. Both parties went into the election with a chance to draw more congressional districts than the other, but the end result was just about the best-case scenario for Republicans. As the map below shows, Republicans are set to control the redistricting of 188 congressional seats — or 43 percent of the entire House of Representatives. By contrast, Democrats will control the redistricting of, at most, 73 seats, or 17 percent.


How did Republicans pull that off? By winning almost every 2020 election in which control of redistricting was at stake:

The GOP kept control of the redistricting process in Texas by holding the state House. Given that Election Data Services estimates Texas will have 39 congressional seats for the next decade, this was arguably Republicans’ single biggest win of the 2020 election.
Republicans successfully defended the Pennsylvania legislature from a Democratic takeover, although they’ll still need to share redistricting power over its projected 17 congressional districts, as Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf has veto power.
Republicans held the majority in both chambers of the North Carolina legislature, which will enable them to draw an expected 14 congressional districts all by themselves.
Amendment 1 passed in Virginia, taking the power to draw the state’s 11 congressional districts out of the hands of the all-Democratic state government and investing it in a bipartisan commission made up of a mix of citizens and legislators.
In Missouri (home to eight congressional districts), Gov. Mike Parson was elected to a second term, keeping redistricting control in Republican hands.
In an upset, Republicans managed to keep their majority in the Minnesota state Senate, thus ensuring Democrats wouldn’t have the unfettered ability to draw the state’s projected seven congressional districts. The parties will share redistricting responsibilities there.
The GOP kept control of the state House in Iowa, with its four congressional districts.
Republicans maintained their supermajorities in the Kansas Legislature, enabling them to pass a new congressional map (worth four districts) over Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly’s veto.
Finally, Republicans surprisingly flipped both the state Senate and state House in New Hampshire (worth two congressional districts), seizing full control of both the state government and the redistricting process.
The one state where Republicans may not have gotten their preferred outcome is New York, where we still don’t know who will control the redistricting process because the state is taking so long to count absentee ballots. If Democrats win a supermajority in the state Senate, they will have total veto power over the state’s projected 26 congressional districts. Democrats are close to clearing that bar, but we won’t know if they make it for, potentially, weeks.

Regardless of the outcome in New York, the overall redistricting picture is the same: The GOP is in almost as good a position as it enjoyed in the last redistricting process, when Republicans controlled the drawing of 55 percent of congressional districts and Democrats controlled only 10 percent after 2010’s GOP wave. As a result, the House map has been more biased toward Republicans this decade than at any point since the 1970s (and Republicans have been able to win multiple chambers in state legislatures despite losing the statewide popular vote 1 ). It now looks as if we’re headed for another 10 years of Republican-favoring maps. Democrats were able to win the House and several state legislatures in 2018 thanks to shifting vote patterns in the suburbs in particular, but Republicans in many states will now have the opportunity to draw new gerrymanders that account for this realignment.

That said, the House map overall might still be less biased in the 2020s than it was in the 2010s. While it’s true that Republicans are set to draw many more congressional districts than Democrats, they will still draw fewer than they did in 2011. In addition, at least 167 districts, 2 or 38 percent of the House, will be drawn by independent commissions or by both parties sharing power. 3 That’s up from 145 (33 percent) in 2011, in part because states such as Colorado, Michigan and Virginia passed redistricting-related ballot measures in recent years. These reforms should translate into fewer gerrymandered seats overall — by either party.

Furthermore, some redistricting processes still controlled by one party — think Ohio’s or Utah’s — have new rules in place designed to encourage more neutral maps. So ultimately, we’ll have to wait and see what the often-messy redistricting process produces in each state — and you can rest assured that will be a major focus of FiveThirtyEight’s coverage in 2021.
Rugian
Member
Thu Nov 19 13:49:20
Why are you posting stuff from 538? That site has been completely discredited since the elction results came out.
habebe
Member
Thu Nov 19 14:03:49
Polling and algorithms, yes. They even use bias language. However if you can find a better and as in depth article breaking down future redistricting I would encourage you to post it
Hrothgar
Member
Thu Nov 19 15:22:32
I saw this first hand in Utah. Republicans have divided up the more liberal city/metro area of the state and split it into a few different districts that include outlaying small towns and suburbs of more conservative areas. Instead of leaving the obvious logical/representation choice of having a single metro area be a single district.

Anyone besides Republicans struggle to win congress representation even though the valley of a million people as a whole would elect Congressional Democrats every single election.
obaminated
Member
Thu Nov 19 15:53:48
Hrothgar has just found out about gerrymandering which both parties do when given opportunity
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Thu Nov 19 16:16:31
Republicans have proven to be totally corrupt garbage

plus good luck finding an article/study showing Ds have abused gerrymandering more than Rs... definitely an R tool more than D
Habebe
Member
Thu Nov 19 16:31:07
No, Democrats just use illegal immigrants to gain extra seats, much more fair and moral.
hood
Member
Thu Nov 19 16:50:52
Gerrymandering should be illegal, punishable by execution. For either side.
obaminated
Member
Thu Nov 19 17:34:06
I agree with hood, except the execution part. Not sure how you could redistrict with a reasonable sense of fairness though. Human bias is human nature and no matter what one side will call abuse.

Also, tw, you realize the Democrats literally ran on court packing, creating new states for more senate seats and to eliminate the filibuster? No side is clean, grow up a bit and look objectively at both parties.
hood
Member
Thu Nov 19 17:39:19
Uh, make it like elections? A bipartisan/nonpartisan committee oversees redistricting so that it is done in an unbiased way. Don't put it in the hands of partisan politicians.
Wrath of Orion
Member
Thu Nov 19 17:53:28
lmfao, mtardo telling someone to look at both parties objectively. Goddamn that was funny.
obaminated
Member
Thu Nov 19 18:04:23
And how are you gonna make sure it is a nonpartisan committee?
hood
Member
Thu Nov 19 18:06:00
If you cannot read simple english, fuck off.
Rugian
Member
Thu Nov 19 18:06:08
MT is correct, there is no such thing as "non-partisan." Seb regularly brags on here about how UK judges are "non-partisan," but the reality is that they're just as partisan as everyone else, as that cunt Spider Lady recently demonstrated.

Better to at least have the people in charge of redistricting accountable to the people through the electoral process, as legislators are.
Rugian
Member
Thu Nov 19 18:06:28
*be accountable
Dukhat
Member
Thu Nov 19 18:12:04
Cuckservatives are just so dumb now. It's like talking to a wall.
CrownRoyal
Member
Thu Nov 19 18:16:33
Currently, 21 U.S. states have some form of non-partisan or bipartisan redistricting commission.[1] Of these 21 states, 13 use redistricting commissions to exclusively draw electoral district boundaries (see below).[1] A 14th state, Iowa, uses a special redistricting process that uses neither the state legislature nor an independent redistricting commission to draw electoral district boundaries (see below).

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Redistricting_commission
Y2A
Member
Thu Nov 19 18:37:21
"Why are you posting stuff from 538? That site has been completely discredited since the elction results came out."

Only ME-2, Florida and North Carolina were off. The probability for ME-2 going to the clown was also at 43%, FL and NC 31% and 36% respectively.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
hood
Member
Thu Nov 19 18:57:58
"Better to at least have the people in charge of redistricting accountable to the people through the electoral process, as legislators are."

We've clearly demonstrated that such a system breaks the system, since the people who get voted just game districts to ensure they keep getting voted. Such vile gremlins should be forcibly eliminated from society.

Also, you can also fuck off for being unable to read simple english.
Habebe
Member
Thu Nov 19 19:06:41
The problem with 538 and its predictions are that it overuses shit polls. You will see a polling average on there that are often the same polling company which can lead to exacerbated problems if that polling company is fucming up.

That and faulty wieghted averages
jergul
large member
Thu Nov 19 19:08:42
The problem is with first past the post. You don't need districts if you award according to fractions of the state vote.

DNC 40%
GOP 40%
Green 10%
Libertarian 10%

California 53 seats

21 to DNC
21 to GOP
5 to Green
5 to Libertarian

1 lost to rounding.
Dukhat
Member
Thu Nov 19 22:07:43
http://i.redd.it/mjweq5tk9gx51.png

Cuckservatives almost always wrong. They chose the conclusion they want and then find "facts" to support it.

Complete opposite of any rational human being.
Dukhat
Member
Thu Nov 19 22:09:12
"The problem with 538 and its predictions are that it overuses shit polls."

The polls are weighted due to their previous accuracy in predicting results. Once again you don't know what the fuck you are talking about habebe.

habebe
Member
Thu Nov 19 22:31:30
Dukhat, If they knew what they were talking about they wouldn't have dropped the ball the last 2 potus elections.

They will show the last 10 polls and often like 8 of them are the same pollster, like yougov ( the economist) or whatnot.

And not just Trump, they routinely underestimate Republican support.

Amd again mu
habebe
Member
Thu Nov 19 22:33:23
And again, much of this goes back to poorly weighted averages.
jergul
large member
Thu Nov 19 23:06:14
I rather suspect it goes back to pollsters underestimating the pool of likely voters and by being trolled by single digit % GOP supporters.
habebe
Member
Thu Nov 19 23:46:23
Jergul, Demographics suggest its more than that.They under represented Republican support im several voting blocs, which is where the weighted averages come in.
jergul
large member
Fri Nov 20 00:30:07
Like I said. Being trolled by a single digit % of Republican voters.

It will only get worse. Pollsters are going to have to use big data to guesstimate the % of trollol republicans.
Habebe
Member
Fri Nov 20 01:20:01
I think it's less about a small % of repubs trolling pollsters and pollsters just relying more on wieghted averages that are wrong and other polls reinforcing each other.

But, I could be wrong. We will have better data in time and can really dissect the election.
jergul
large member
Fri Nov 20 01:54:31
The weighted averages always pulled in favour of the GOP (raw numbers more pro democrat).

Ultimately, they just have to be weighed more. The challenge is for pollsters to justify that.

Habebe
Member
Fri Nov 20 02:07:31
I don't know about that. But they better start coming in with more accurate numbers f they want to be taken all that seriously.
jergul
large member
Fri Nov 20 08:44:24
Not taking them seriously plays into the fake news agenda. Hence trollol republicans generating self-forfilling proficies.
jergul
large member
Fri Nov 20 08:44:45
prophecies*
Habebe
Member
Fri Nov 20 11:20:17
Or, perhaps they are fake news.

The US Democratic party has more influence over mainstream media than is comfortable.
Dakyron
Member
Fri Nov 20 11:39:49
"The problem is with first past the post. You don't need districts if you award according to fractions of the state vote. "

I would be good with this for the House of Reps. You would see marginalized voters get at least minimal representation(Libertarians, Greens, Reform, whatever...).
Dukhat
Member
Fri Nov 20 23:19:32
Habebe with the fool’s take. Lots of traditional conservative news outlets got destroyed because they didn’t toe the line with Trump; many still profitable. The billionaire funders of the gop wanted a unified voice so they could the selves get a tax cut and made sure it happened.

In other words, conservative media is basically all fake news now.
habebe
Member
Fri Nov 20 23:30:08
Dukhat, Are you denying the DNC/Media connection though? Have you seen the Hillary emails?
Dukhat
Member
Sat Nov 21 00:51:34
Whatever Hillary did, it pales in comparison by far to the deeply symbiotic relationship between Trump and Fox News.
Habebe
Member
Sat Nov 21 03:09:22
The thing was that it wasn't just HRC but the DNC in general had a relationship with the MSM to where they would print pretty much whatever they wanted, and take general cues from them to downplay certain stories or give others undue attention.

Fox is a Conservative narrative machine.Not necessarily taking orders from Trump.

OAN is a Trump group organization, but again AFAIK not actually printing articles written by Trump operatives and playing up x while.downplaying y and z. That level of coordination has been shown with the DNC.
Habebe
Member
Sat Nov 21 03:21:55
Even if you think Trump had too close of a relationship with Fox. Not comparatively but just on its own its hard to admit that the DNC has an uncomfortably close relationship with the media.

"In another email part of the WikiLeaks dump, there was also a correspondence found between Jason Seher, who is a CNN producer for Jake Tapper's "The Lead," and the Miranda of the DNC.

Seher wrote, “Thanks for facilitating Luis coming on today, and bearing with us through a meelee [sic] of GOP nonsense and cancellations and all that. Any particular points he’ll want to make? We’re gonna stay Dem focused.”

The email was then forwarded to another DNC staffer with a message that said, “Need to know asap if we want to offer Jake Tapper questions to ask us.”


http://the...eing-named-in-leaked-wikileaks
Habebe
Member
Sat Nov 21 03:28:28
http://wikileaks.org/dnc-emails/
Habebe
Member
Sat Nov 21 03:30:36
Here is CNN literally asking the DNC for questions ahead of time.

http://wikileaks.org/dnc-emails/emailid/23554
Habebe
Member
Sat Nov 21 03:33:35
Wolf Blitzer is interviewing Trump on Tues ahead of his foreign policy address on Wed.

Please send me thoughts by 10:30 AM tomorrow.

Thanks!

http://wikileaks.org/dnc-emails/emailid/25846

This one takes the cake.
Habebe
Member
Sat Nov 21 03:47:03
Gee I wonder why Trump doesnt Trust the media.... Couldnt possibly be that they are pretty much employed by his opposition.
Dukhat
Member
Sat Nov 21 05:22:14
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/erik-wemple/wp/2016/11/07/and-now-from-wikileaks-a-cnn-non-scandal/

"Hammered with inquiries, CNN issued the following statement on this episode: “This is completely unremarkable. We have similar communications with Republicans. When preparing for interviews we are regularly sent suggestions from rival campaigns and political parties, both solicited and unsolicited. Casting a wide net to ensure a tough and fair interview isn’t just common media practice, it’s smart.”

Conservative media always misrepresents the facts.
habebe
Member
Sat Nov 21 09:30:10
Yeah, Im sure CNN asks Trump to send over questions for Biden.

Where are the emails?

Damn " conservative media" showing you the actual emails sent. Its a good thing the liberal media could explain what you seen.
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