Utopia Talk / Politics / Seb is still wrong - 5

Dakyron Member	Mon Jan 18 13:20:25 Yes... Is this what you wanted? http://www...S0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext "The primary efficacy analysis included symptomatic COVID-19 in seronegative participants with a nucleic acid amplification test-positive swab more than 14 days after a second dose of vaccine."
Habebe Member	Mon Jan 18 13:24:25 Admittedly at first glance of the title I figured it was a Sam post.
Seb Member	Mon Jan 18 13:29:28 This site can’t be reached www...s0140-6736%2820%2932661-1’s server IP address could not be found." Stunning. Az's first statements on efficacy seemed to suggest they had done their test on asymptomatic and symptomatic - though a close reading does leave wiggle room at to which figure they are quoting.
Dakyron Member	Mon Jan 18 13:31:49 I copied from the other thread. Here you go, since your investigate work rivals your arithmetic. http://www...S0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext
Dakyron Member	Mon Jan 18 13:33:12 They very clearly show that the efficacy is against symptomatic COVID, but that it also is moderately effective against asymptomatic cases, just like the other two vaccines. Thanks for playing. Buh-bye.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Mon Jan 18 13:41:16 To test for asymptomatic infections, participants in COV002 in the UK were asked to provide a weekly self-administered nose and throat swab for NAAT testing from 1 week after first vaccination using kits provided by the UK Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC). Participants were given home test kits provided by the DHSC that included step-by-step instructions on how to do a self-swab and a link to a demonstration video. The site trial team provided support with logistics of packaging and returning test kits and tracking swab results to participants if required. Swabs were taken by participants in their homes and posted to dedicated DHSC testing laboratories for processing. Participants were directly informed of their results by text or email from the National Health Service (NHS). Swab results from participants in England and Wales were provided to the trial statistician on a daily basis by the NHS and matched to individuals based on personal identification data (name, date of birth, NHS number, and postcode). Swab results from participants in Scotland were unavailable to the study team at the time of the data cutoff for this analysis, but will be included in future analyses. Any swab results that were not able to be matched to a study participant using at least two pieces of personal data were not added to the study database. In Brazil, there was no testing plan for asymptomatic infections. In South Africa, asymptomatic infections were detected from swabs obtained at study visits attended, but are not summarised here as there were only a small number of timepoints for detection of these cases.
Seb Member	Mon Jan 18 14:29:27 Dakyron: I stand corrected, I had misread the press statement they released, good catch. Now if only you could pay the same level of due diligence to interpretation of charts. Note, if the mRNA based vaccines are also not very effective against asymptomatic cases, this is not great news regarding transmission as asymptomatic cases can still transmit. Essentially, the vaccines suppress symptoms. This is good in the sense it lowers mortality, bad in that they do not offer a path for elimination.
Seb Member	Mon Jan 18 14:32:26 https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-centre/press-releases/2020/azd1222hlr.html for reference. They rather sneakily did not stipulate that the efficacy figures were for symptomatic cases, but mentioned their swabbing protocol, meaning it quite reasonable to assume the efficacy figures included both symptomatic and asymptomatic cases.
Dakyron Member	Mon Jan 18 14:50:38 Moderna says initial data points to being effective against asymptomatic cases as well as symptoms. No reason to think the other two would be different. Time will tell, but logic says the vaccines would stop both symptomatic and asymptomatic cases. I think we will be fine. Bigger problem is vaccinating enough people in a 6 month time frame to essentially remove the virus from general circulation. Instead it will probably just lessen to the point where no one cares anymore(if they even still do).
Seb Member	Mon Jan 18 15:05:00 Dakyron: "but logic says the vaccines would stop both symptomatic and asymptomatic cases." Why would logic suggest that? Efficacy is measuring incidence of the disease against a control group. If vaccines in most cases prevent symptoms from manifesting, then comparing people who received the vaccine who went on to develop symptomatic cases to the control group would show much higher efficacy than comparing those that went on to develop asymptomatic cases to the control group. I think we have just received a cautionary tale in overinterpreting companies statements from your own good self. " Bigger problem is vaccinating enough people in a 6 month time frame to essentially remove the virus from general circulation" I think you have missed the point. If significant numbers of people can be vaccinated, but still be infected, have the virus, and transmit it - then vaccinating lots of people will not remove it from circulation. It will simply cut mortality. The potential risk then is mutations and recombination and the fact we will be living with this forever and forever worrying about the equivalent of a dangerous new strain that vaccines are not effective on emerging - as with flu.
jergul large member	Mon Jan 18 15:31:45 Vaccine details are always going to be questionable due to the warp speed of releases.
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