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Utopia Talk / Politics / 50% of US vaccinated by 2022
Rugian
Member
Wed Mar 17 17:41:06
This thread will serve as a daily countdown to the day that jergul is thoroughly humiliated.

March 17:

% of US that has received at least 1 dose: 22.2%
% of US fully vaccinated: 12%
Habebe
Member
Wed Mar 17 18:24:14
Currently for FULLY vaccinated per 100 people (meaning, both doses if needed)

US- 11.7%

Norway- 4.8%

Germany- 3.6%

UK- 2.5%

---------

Atleast one dose given per 100.

US-33.11

Norway-13.02

Germany-11.76

UK-39.04 *huge jump*

Doses being put in arms weekly per 100 (single dose) 7 day rolling average.

US-0.73

Norway-0.25

Germany-0.28

UK-0.57

At this rate Norways strategy may be to catch up by slowing down-ancient Chinese secret.
Habebe
Member
Wed Mar 17 18:24:37
http://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
Y2A
Member
Wed Mar 17 20:05:25
Wait, are you saying that you think we will NOT get to 50% vaccinated by 2022?
jergul
large member
Wed Mar 17 20:22:14
Ruggy
Its not that kind of game. The US will be fully humiliated if I am right.

I will say, meh, a child could have vaccinated 50% of his country in 12 months if the US does make that bar.

Its a fucking low bar, bro.
habebe
Member
Wed Mar 17 20:37:00
A child mabey, but not Norway, an epic failure of vaccinations.
jergul
large member
Wed Mar 17 20:56:43
habebe
We are 7 minutes into the first inning. Lets wait until the game is over before comparing notes, mkay?
obaminated
Member
Wed Mar 17 21:06:38
What a weird way to spin being on the losing side, jergul. "If the states can vaccinate half their population by the end of the year id say a child could do as good, ignore that i just admitted my country is worse than the performance of a child"
Forwyn
Member
Wed Mar 17 21:13:37
"In the first quarter of 2021, Oslo expects to receive a total of 2.5 million doses, covering 1.25 million people - or 23% of the population, pending approval of the vaccines from European regulators."

http://www...-from-early-2021-idUSKBN28E1AU

Norway at 705k as of Monday. lol
habebe
Member
Wed Mar 17 21:49:03
Jergul, We compare notes all the time, look at death and infection rate comparisons, economic etc.

The weekly rolling average helps give us information about the pace.

Are you expecting a sudden upswing in performance? or even to meet your set goals?

Canada is failing as well, they bet on 5 European factories for doses because they feared the US would impose export bans....like the EU is flirting with.

Germany has done so badly it cost Merkles party votes.

Europe in general has done poorly.Serbia leads the way but with chinese vaccinnes. Despite what Sam says the UK isnt doing that bad, if they can pull of the 2nd doses, they will have done great.
habebe
Member
Wed Mar 17 21:51:26
http://www.yalemedicine.org/news/covid-19-vaccine-comparison

For comparing vaccinne.
jergul
large member
Wed Mar 17 22:25:00
habebe
Do I expect vaccine delivery to increase? Yes.

It ultimately does not matter much now. We have vaccinated our most vulnerable and have lost 3 per million compared to the US 55 per million over the last 14 days.

The lockdowns are now just irritants (The State increased its sovereign wealth despite high spending in 2020. People increased their saving due to really generous benefits during shutdowns).

Let me ask you this. Who do you think will first fully vaccinate 50% of its population.

Norway or the US?



habebe
Member
Wed Mar 17 22:54:04
"It ultimately does not matter much now. We have vaccinated our most vulnerable and have lost 3 per million compared to the US 55 per million over the last 14 days."

woah, woah , woah, what happened to a baseball game?

50% seems an oddly arbitrary number.

But if current rates hold, the US will outpace the EU and Norway to 50%.What do you think will change that rate?

Do you mean fully vaccinate or atleast 1 dose?
habebe
Member
Wed Mar 17 22:55:46
See, what your really doing is stalling to buy time hoping the EU/Norway will pick up pace while the US sputters out for some reason.
habebe
Member
Wed Mar 17 22:55:47
See, what your really doing is stalling to buy time hoping the EU/Norway will pick up pace while the US sputters out for some reason.
habebe
Member
Wed Mar 17 23:12:09
I missed you specified fully.

FYI, March 13th the US vaccinated almost the entire population of Norway.
habebe
Member
Wed Mar 17 23:53:05
Norway claims to have 1.3 million high risk people according to Reuters. that's what roughly 25% of the population? considering only 5 % are fully vaccinated , t does not have its high risk population FV.

Trumps warp speed program was less risk averse, pouring loads of cash at producers and buying millions of doses before we knew which wpuld pan out.

The EU squabbled over if they could sue, and bought fewer doses later trying to get a better price and was sluggish to spend money.

To top it off, US manufacturers are keeping pace with demand better than most if not all of the world afaik, perhaps Im wrong about that.


Norway was using 3 vaccines AFAIK

Pfizer

AZ

Moderna

They are no longer using AZ and the two they are using still are heavily used by the US, even Biden has a bit of America first in him.

Now the only thing Europe may* have an advantage on is less vaccinne hesitancy.Is that the basis of your thought process on why we will struggle to reach an arbitrary 50%?

I dont know much about Norweigan hesitancy, I know that about 40% of the population wouldnt get a vaccinne if they could this week, the US is about 50% IIRC.

As for Western Europe, they seem more concerned about vaccine safety than N. America, but then again Norway just stopped using 1 ofnits 3 vaccines.

Perhaps you will catch up eventually, only time will tell.
patom
Member
Thu Mar 18 10:51:14
Wife and I got our 2nd dose today.
Sam Adams
Member
Thu Mar 18 11:00:53
Jergul is not taking the failure of his socialized healthcare well.
jergul
large member
Thu Mar 18 11:36:50
Sammy
The failure of capitalism. Things are ordered, it cannot supply. Then you brag about doing it Soviet style.

How the world turns.
Dukhat
Member
Thu Mar 18 11:43:14
Capitalism doesnt work in wartime. Profiteering counters the national good. Aka WWII command and control economy on the US side. Capitalism made sure the factories were in place though.

But that was in 1939. We moved all our factories to China and would take 4 years to mobilize for all-out war.
Rugian
Member
Thu Mar 18 12:27:06
Patom

Great news! Now go back to living your life.
Rugian
Member
Thu Mar 18 12:37:04
Jergul

It's a very low bar that you have said the US is incapable of passing.

"Jergul
Tue Mar 16 08:14:22
Countries with socialized medicine have a fighting chance of getting 75%+ full vaccination rates. You will probably not pass 50% in 2021."

This is the problem with your perpetual anti-Americanism - you have such a low opinion of this country that you are constantly predicting we will fail at something when we can in fact easily succeed.
Sam Adams
Member
Thu Mar 18 12:39:37
"The failure of capitalism."

The biggest most capitalist companies in the most capitalist country are producing the best vaccines.


This is very hard on you and seb.
Rugian
Member
Thu Mar 18 12:47:28
Y2A

Jergul thinks the US will fail to be 50% fully vaccinated by 2022. He was so confident in that prediction that, when I said I disagreed with him, he demanded that I put myself on the line and explicitly commit to the US achieving at least 50.

This thread is for tracking who ends up being right on that front.
jergul
large member
Thu Mar 18 12:49:25
Ruggy
Having a low opinion of your medical system is simply being realistic.

Sammy
Global companies that cannot deliver on the global market because of you have introduced communism.
Rugian
Member
Thu Mar 18 13:21:16
New numbers in!

March 18:

% of US that has received at least 1 dose: 22.7% (+0.5%)

% of US fully vaccinated: 12.3% (+0.3%)
Sam Adams
Member
Thu Mar 18 16:23:02
http://www...Canada-loan-deal-official.html

Sebs vax sucks so much we are now officially giving it away.

Not the greatest pr... here friends... have our table scraps, but better than nothing.

Lol@sebs again.


Also jergul we should pass 50% fully vaxed at the end of may. Earlier if J+J ramps up well.

You socialists are not good at vaccines... or math.
Sam Adams
Member
Thu Mar 18 16:39:48
http://en...._of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

I feel this is relevent for some reason.
habebe
Member
Thu Mar 18 20:05:32
Well, We want N. America covered anyway.

The way Canada has acted lately, they're lucky they get anything. Mexico has been cool, its not their fault Biden opened the border.
Y2A
Member
Thu Mar 18 20:35:45
"Jergul thinks the US will fail to be 50% fully vaccinated by 2022. He was so confident in that prediction that, when I said I disagreed with him, he demanded that I put myself on the line and explicitly commit to the US achieving at least 50."

i see. he is going to get BTFO.
Rugian
Member
Fri Mar 19 12:13:23
Rofl Sam.

And happy Friday everyone!

March 19:

% of US that has received at least 1 dose: 23.3% (+0.6%)

% of US fully vaccinated: 12.6% (+0.3%)
Forwyn
Member
Fri Mar 19 15:03:22
With 41 weeks left to go in the year, we need to average .91% growth to reach 50% by 2022.

Adjusting for growth weeks, we'll probably need to quadruple capacity.
patom
Member
Fri Mar 19 15:18:05
WASHINGTON — The U.S. on Friday cleared President Joe Biden’s goal of injecting 100 million coronavirus shots, more than a month before his target date of his 100th day in office, as the president prepared to set his sights higher in the nationwide vaccination effort.

With the nation now administering about 2.5 million shots per day, Biden, who promised to set a new goal for vaccinations next week, teased the possibility of setting a 200 million dose goal by his 100th day in office.

“We may be able to double it,” he told reporters before leaving the White House for Atlanta. His comments come as the U.S. is on pace to have enough of the three currently authorized vaccines to cover the entire adult population just 10 weeks from now.
Rugian
Member
Sat Mar 20 12:19:54
March 20:

% of US that has received at least 1 dose: 23.9% (+0.6%)

% of US fully vaccinated: 13.0% (+0.4%)
Y2A
Member
Sat Mar 20 12:35:34
50% at least one dose projected by May 14th.

http://www...us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html
Habebe
Member
Sat Mar 20 21:25:42
Y2a, I think thats using the old rate of 1.5 million a day. Were almost double that rate now.
Habebe
Member
Sun Mar 21 17:02:36
http://www...head/ar-BB1eO6Ki?ocid=BingNews

Goals are to fully vaccinate 240 million people by the end of May.
Rugian
Member
Sun Mar 21 17:16:54
I think May is a very reasonable target in terms of hitting 50%. Especially with these rates:

March 21:

% of US that has received at least 1 dose: 24.5% (+0.6%)

% of US fully vaccinated: 13.3% (+0.3%)
Sam Adams
Member
Sun Mar 21 18:43:36
So many people i know are getting the vax now. Probably like 70% of my circle has at least 1.

Fuck yes.

BREAK OUT THE SCOTCH

i'll give you euros credit you might not be good at vaccines but you can make a good whiskey.
Y2A
Member
Sun Mar 21 20:24:59
I got my vaccine appt (and set up appts for 4 extended family members) this week. my brother is also getting his this week and I see a bunch of ppl on fb talking about getting theirs.
obaminated
Member
Sun Mar 21 20:30:54
My side gig as a coach put me on a fast track for the vaccine. Im hesitant to take it up though. Shit came out too fast. I dont wanna suffer some random side effects.
hood
Member
Sun Mar 21 21:35:41
It's not really a fast track if you're getting it once they've opened it to the public.
habebe
Member
Sun Mar 21 21:39:27
I think it's still for 55 or older around here. My dad one, gets his 2nd shot Friday.

I'm not sure if it was Moderna or Pfizer , but I know they made a big deal about canceling ASAP if you werent going to be on time, said ince its out it only has a 6 hour window.
Sam Adams
Member
Sun Mar 21 21:59:32
"I got my vaccine appt (and set up appts for 4 extended family members) this week. my brother is also getting his this week and I see a bunch of ppl on fb talking about getting theirs."

Pretty sweet huh. Cheers.

"Im hesitant to take it up though."

Dont be a clown. Go get that shit. The side effects are very improbable and the benefit from the US versions are quite high. Just dont get the uk one.
habebe
Member
Sun Mar 21 22:11:36
What Sam said, Get the vaccinne. Side effects are super minimal and rare.

Ive posted several links with the info to check out yourself, but its worth it, all the cool kids are getting them.
patom
Member
Mon Mar 22 05:15:08
An old friend that lives in N.J. belongs to a VFW down there. 15 of the members have Covid 19.

My wife had a sore arm after her 2nd shot. I didn't have any side effects from my shots. Moderna vaccine.
Sam Adams
Member
Mon Mar 22 10:26:51
Ya i got a sore arm from my first one that developed after about 6 hours. Annoying but not bad. Felt like i got stung by a bee, or been hit by a curveball/changeup tossed by amateur pitchers like in high school.

Have not had number 2 yet.

Better to have a minor sore arm than risk the 1 in ~1000 chance i get fucked by the real thing, or worse, spread it to an older relative that isnt as healthy.
habebe
Member
Mon Mar 22 13:44:27
Norway has apparently reduced doses given out oer 100 from .25 down to .17.

US remains at .74 , almost 5 fold faster, and not in nominal numbers but by a percentage.

Falling below even the poorly performing EU nations like France, Germany, Poland!, Italy and Hungary.
Rugian
Member
Mon Mar 22 14:23:39
March 22:

% of US that has received at least 1 dose: 24.9% (+0.4%)

% of US fully vaccinated: 13.5% (+0.2%)
jergul
large member
Mon Mar 22 14:26:23
Ruggy
(+0.4%)
(+0.3%)
(+0.2%)
Sam Adams
Member
Mon Mar 22 14:33:03
Jergul is getting his hopes up that US vax numbers went down slightly on a weekend.

Lulz.
jergul
large member
Mon Mar 22 14:37:33
Sammy
Lulz at sammy thinking a 50% reduction is "slightly".
Sam Adams
Member
Mon Mar 22 14:53:53
Still smokes norway.
Rugian
Member
Mon Mar 22 15:13:59
Jergul

The relevant metric is the sum of 1st dose and 2nd dose recipients, as that indicates the rate of vaccines being administered.

March 19: +0.9% (3 million doses)
March 20: +1.0% (3.3 million doses
March 21: +0.9% (3 million doses)
March 22: +0.6% (2 million doses)

So today saw a 1 million reduction is doses administered. That may be a one-day statistical anomaly, or it may be the initial sign of a trend. If so, it's worth noting that most Americans are still ineligible to get the vaccine as states continue to prioritize higher risk individuals.

Eventually, most people in the higher risk pool will have gotten the vaccine, and we can expand the eligibility pool to more and more Americans.
Rugian
Member
Mon Mar 22 15:18:51
I just checked Massachusetts' schedule for vaccine rollout. People aged 55-64 are eligible to receive it starting April 5; anyone over the age of 16 can receive it April 19.

That sounds about right. Just under 70% of all Americans aged 65 and older have already gotten at least one shot; in a few weeks most if not all of those people will be fully vaccinated.
jergul
large member
Mon Mar 22 15:40:17
Ruggy
The relevant metric for measuring how many people are getting fully vaccinated is of course how many people are getting fully vaccinated.

You seem to be saying that about 65% of the population 65+ will get fully vaccinated.

You sure you don't want to revisit your thoughts on more than 50% of the total US population being fully vaccinated by the end of May?

Rugian
Member
Mon Mar 22 16:02:17
"The relevant metric for measuring how many people are getting fully vaccinated is of course how many people are getting fully vaccinated."

How is that? If a person has gotten a 1st dose, that strongly suggests he's willing to get a 2nd.

25% of the population with at least one dose today implies 25% of the population being fully vaccinated in less than a month.

"You sure you don't want to revisit your thoughts on more than 50% of the total US population being fully vaccinated by the end of May?"

There may be some variation on this front in terms of scheduling (states may choose for example to prioritize giving 1st doses and defer giving 2nd doses for a few weeks), but yes this is a reasonable projection.

You really need to stop acting like it isn't.
jergul
large member
Mon Mar 22 16:44:08
Ruggy
You are the one acting as if my projection of less than 50% of the US population being fully vaccinated by the end of May is unreasonable.

Is that not the purpose of this entire thread?
Y2A
Member
Mon Mar 22 17:42:23
i am getting the moderna two shot and my parents got it back in January. my mother really felt the hit on the second shot. apparently, that is common/expected.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nucCr7Sywgc
Sam Adams
Member
Mon Mar 22 18:02:04
"You are the one acting as if my projection of less than 50% of the US population being fully vaccinated by the end of May is unreasonable.

Is that not the purpose of this entire thread?"

Except you said 2022 jergul. Not may. Oops
kargen
Member
Mon Mar 22 18:35:59
Two people on CNN were talking about vaccination availability today and they were saying there is more vaccines available than people that are eligible for the vaccine and that being the case we should start sending vaccinations overseas.

My thinking is maybe make more people eligible.
jergul
large member
Mon Mar 22 18:41:43
Sammy
Righto. May 21 is a no brainer. By 2022 it is!
habebe
Member
Mon Mar 22 20:46:10
Rugian, I was using the 7 day rolling average.

Mainly because thats how the site ourworldindata offers it as a graph but also because their is a spectrum, March 13th we vaccinated 4.6 million people ( our highest single day) so fluctuations happen.
Rugian
Member
Tue Mar 23 13:38:26
Habebe

7 day rolling average is indeed a more reasonable measure. Individual days should not be looked at in isolation, rather the data points being presented should be linked together as part of a trend.

Anyway, latest and greatest:

March 23:

% of US that has received at least 1 dose: 25.3% (+0.4%)

% of US fully vaccinated: 13.7% (+0.2%)

On track to have 70% of the elderly with at least one shot in them by tomorrow.
habebe
Member
Tue Mar 23 13:47:25
I should note that even 1 shot has massive benefits compared to nothing.It varies by vaccine and strain etc.
Y2A
Member
Tue Mar 23 13:49:00
just got it.

still alive.
Y2A
Member
Tue Mar 23 13:49:43
also. my big boss is calling for us to come back to the office now that the vaccines are out.

FUCK
habebe
Member
Tue Mar 23 14:20:31
"still alive."- blatant falsehood.
patom
Member
Wed Mar 24 09:20:46
Close to 600K in Maine have had their 1st shot and around 300K have been fully vaccinated. Tuesday they opened up the age to anyone over 50. In 3 weeks they anticipate opening it up to anyone over 16.

The only limitation seems to be supply of the vaccine. In Bangor the Cross Insurance Center is set up to do 4K a day. So far the best they have done is 2600 in one day.
Y2A
Member
Wed Mar 24 09:25:37
yeah, maine is 5th in vaccine distribution. how tf is New Mexico 1st?
habebe
Member
Wed Mar 24 09:34:02
Y2a, Isnt most of its population in just a handful of cities? alot of those SW states (AZ) are like that I think.
Y2A
Member
Wed Mar 24 09:47:26
NM is well above all of its neighbor states

http://www...us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html
Sam Adams
Member
Wed Mar 24 10:22:31
Those state numbers are all pretty close to eachother. Note the scale. Theres always going to be some variation.
Habebe
Member
Wed Mar 24 11:33:10
Weekly dose administered per 100

US- inches up to 0.75

Norway-Inches down to 0.16
Rugian
Member
Wed Mar 24 13:33:32
March 24:

% of US that has received at least 1 dose: 25.7% (+0.4%)

% of US fully vaccinated: 14.0% (+0.3%)
jergul
large member
Wed Mar 24 13:36:41
A 50% surge in fully vaccinated! Just another 33% surge needed to be back were you were.
Habebe
Member
Wed Mar 24 14:02:49
Ancient Norwegian secret.

Step one: slow down vaccination rates.

Step two:.....

Step 3: hooray
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Wed Mar 24 16:33:18
Steg 3: kjempegreit!

Would be what they would say.
Rugian
Member
Wed Mar 24 22:36:02
I distinctly recall explaining to jergul why looking at full vaccination rates in isolation is not smart. Am I hallucinating, or did I not already do this?

Fully vaccinated rates are a function of total vaccination rates. The quicker you get people to get their first dose, the quicker you can get them to their second.

Put another way. There will come a day when most everyone who wanted to get vaccinated has gotten their first shot. At that point, the majority of shots that can be administered will be administered to people getting their second shot.

In other words, total doses administered is the relevant metric.
Forwyn
Member
Thu Mar 25 01:18:03
J&J about to flip the table on double-dose metrics with their one dose adenovirus vaccine
jergul
large member
Thu Mar 25 04:06:38
Hey thicky
The number of fully vaccinated people is the relevant metric when counting the number of fully vaccinated people.
Dukhat
Member
Thu Mar 25 04:16:52
The J&J vaccine is only like 70% effective against symptomatic Covid-19. Virus will still spread with J&J vaccine.
Y2A
Member
Thu Mar 25 11:03:10
"The J&J vaccine is only like 70% effective against symptomatic Covid-19. Virus will still spread with J&J vaccine."

See below video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K3odScka55A
Hrothgar
Member
Thu Mar 25 13:06:32
In the state of Utah I got my vaccine last week and they opened it up to everyone 16 and older yesterday. Was able to obsessively check the CVS pharmacy website for available slots throughout the day and hunt down cancelation openings for my wife and 2 oldest kids.

Pfizer 2 dose regiment for us all.

We're hoping the children dose is approved before next school year starts for the younger ones.
Sam Adams
Member
Thu Mar 25 15:22:00
"Virus will still spread with J&J vaccine."

J+J will certainly reduce the spread considerably. Pfizer and moderna are better though.
Sam Adams
Member
Thu Mar 25 15:23:14
"and they opened it up to everyone 16 and older yesterday."

I was told by jergul this wasnt possible for many months? Lol.
jergul
large member
Thu Mar 25 15:33:49
Sammy
No, you were not. I implied this would happen. The lower of each cohort are willing to vaccinate, the earlier you can open up for the next groups.
Rugian
Member
Thu Mar 25 16:23:04
Jergul's failure to recognize that the rate 1st doses are administered is important, because today's 1st doses are next month's 2nd doses, goes a long way in explaining his greater failure in projecting vaccination rates generally.

And just look at those 1st doses!

---

March 25:

% of US that has received at least 1 dose: 26.3% (+0.6%)

% of US fully vaccinated: 14.3% (+0.3%)
Sam Adams
Member
Thu Mar 25 16:39:07
We could vaccinate all of norway in like 2 days.
Seb
Member
Fri Mar 26 04:51:24
Fun fact. The Johnson and Johnson vaccine is actually developed by Jansen and the US supply is currently coming from a factory in Leiden (US domestic production is coming, but not there yet).

Or might not be, given the lack of exports of Pfizer vaccine to the EU as contacted, due to US export controls.


Sam Adams
Member
Fri Mar 26 09:19:30
Funded by the US.

Thanks US for saving the world.
habebe
Member
Fri Mar 26 13:06:09
US steady at .75

Norway shot up to .25
Rugian
Member
Fri Mar 26 14:59:48
It's Friday, Friday
Gotta get down on Friday
Everybody's vaccinatin' for the weekend, weekend
Friday, Friday
Gettin' down on Friday
Everybody's vaccinatin' the weekend

----

March 26:

% of US that has received at least 1 dose: 27.0% (+0.7%)

% of US fully vaccinated: 14.7% (+0.4%)
Rugian
Member
Fri Mar 26 15:01:06
To use jergulmaths, 2nd does vaccinations have increased by a full 100% since Tuesday. Wow!
Sam Adams
Member
Fri Mar 26 15:41:45
That stuck ship must be rerouting all the vaccines away from europe
Sam Adams
Member
Sat Mar 27 14:45:39
http://www...-coronavirus-friday/index.html

3.4 million vaxes given in a single say
Sam Adams
Member
Sat Mar 27 14:45:45
Day
Rugian
Member
Sat Mar 27 16:37:37
Oh we're just getting started Sam.

----

March 27:

% of US that has received at least 1 dose: 27.6% (+0.6%)

% of US fully vaccinated: 15.1% (+0.4%)
obaminated
Member
Sat Mar 27 17:58:05
this thread is like watching jergul, seb and cuckhat get their ass beat because someone shoved a banana down their pants and released a monkey. the complete failure of socialized medicine is shown in every statistic and there is nothing they can say to discount it beyond vaguely claiming some unforseen issue will come up to help them save face.

and the funniest part? this will have zero effect on their ideological beliefs. they are incapable of growth and change despite what they see and experience.
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