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Utopia Talk / Politics / Will China ever overtake the US?
Habebe
Member
Thu Apr 08 14:42:02
Some people are saying just in a few years China will become the worlds largest economy.

But this was almost as certain in the 80s " Japan will leave the US in the dust"

But they were hit with a similar working age demographic switch.

So when people retire they draw money from the system, and are living longer. Which is good, but can hinder a growing economy.

Enter the one child policy making it all worse.

The chinese population will be in decline unless they can allow immigration. But other than Africans I dont think too many places would be knocking down the doors. And who wants a nation of Africans?

The Africans also face a high degree of racism in such a society, China is still a close knit nation not optimized for mass immigration.

The US on the other hand is by design setup to take on immigrants to help ease population ageing shifts.

We're still on a learning curve on race relations and such, but of large nations we are the most diverse melting pot.Which is a long-term design that is a benefit, with tough learning curve.

Chinese growth has been on decline for a while now. Belt and road has backfired. More and more nations are trying to nix made in china for essential goods and certain areas a lot more (Australia)

They have always lagged in innovation/competitiveness, much of their wealth is playing catch up.

Well they are rather caught up.Plus Mexico has cheaper labour as well as many other 2nd rate nations.
Paramount
Member
Thu Apr 08 15:07:00
Not sure China is lagging in innovation. Some of the most innovative companies is Huawei.

Huawei ranks #6 among world’s most innovative companies for 2020

http://dat...-innovative-companies-for-2020


” The US on the other hand is by design setup to take on immigrants”

Not if Trump will decide. The US is building walls. China builds roads.
Habebe
Member
Thu Apr 08 15:20:36
You realize we allow about 1 million new LEGAL immigrants every year.
Habebe
Member
Thu Apr 08 17:01:02
Well most innovative is subjective but most lists the top ten have 6 to 7 companies. Apple/Google/Microsoft/ musk companies/amazon/ etc.

By nations they are pretty low.

I think the US was 2nd in 2019 and 10th in 2020.But china was the 20th.
habebe
Member
Thu Apr 08 21:42:07
even if they do surpass the US in nominal GDP, its likely to fluctuate by 2100 its expected to jave a population of 1 billion while the US pop is estimated.to be 570 million, but 80 years in the future IMO is too far in the future to be accurate.

by then we may see the rise of many regional powers.

then there is the counterfeit issues with China. If you count HK as China now about 85% of all counterfeit goods world wide comes.from China which has been increasing, in 2015 it was 1.7 trillion, probably over 2 trillion a year.

plus lets face facts very little high quality goods are made in China far less are made by chinese companies.They can't even copy quality! Look at Teslas vs spent who openly admits he copied Musk ( legally as Musk made the schematics available.free)
Sam Adams
Member
Thu Apr 08 21:55:26
China has a pretty good chance at passing us. Look how faggoty and pathetic the left is making the US these days. Half of the next generation of american isnt even going to know what sex they are.
obaminated
Member
Thu Apr 08 22:14:56
correct, the chinese are serious people who focus on serious issues and problems. meanwhile we are nonserious people who complain about stereotypes in childrens books and have come up with nonissues that the media runs with and yes, leftists eat it up. i mean, for fucks sake, radical leftists rioted all summer and the left ignored it or rationalized it. the chinese government would have hung antifa members from their feet in the public square.
TheChildren
Member
Fri Apr 09 01:19:33
u 2 obsessed about this shit.
china isnt gonna surpass usa...china already surpassed usa over 10-15 years ago!

just deal with it. not like half da world likes u on top anyway.

it dont change ur life any bit.
Habebe
Member
Fri Apr 09 02:36:08
Sam, they may. But even if they do they will have a hard time maintaining on top. for a few years it may well be. Like Musk and Besos teeterimg back and forth.

They have a similar but harsher demographic switch fucking up the ratio of elderly vs. Working age population, exacerbated because of the one child policy and artificial males to female ratio.

Remember this?

http://www...hread=87901&time=1617263763233
TheChildren
Member
Fri Apr 09 06:37:57
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fpyHhrDgG5A

hello darkness reality check, have come 2 speak 2 u agaiiiinnnn.

Becoz da vision softly speakin.
Habebe
Member
Fri Apr 09 10:30:54
Bluntly spoken

In 1980 china had a huge swath of young working age people to be the world's factory workers, for cheap.

A 20 year old in 1980 is now 60.

In 2010 about 75% of its population was working age (30-64)

This will drop in a few years to be 55-58%. For demographics, that's massive.

For everyone two seniors drawing a pension, there is one worker.In a nation that still has per person income of loke 10k/year.

This is what happened to Japan in 1990. This is also why Nigeria may habe rapid growth soon if handled right.

Even if they had more kids now it's a 30 year wait until they're productive again.

Plus loke I said, no one wants to move to China. Not even TC.
Habebe
Member
Fri Apr 09 10:32:07
JAPAN MAY STILL SURPASS U.S. TO BECOME LEADING ECONOMIC POWER BY THE YEAR 2000
Reviewed by Ronald E. Yates, a financial writer who served 8 years as the Tribune's Tokyo bureau chief
CHICAGO TRIBUNE
(1995)

http://www...4-10-9504100029-story,amp.html

Measured by current exchange rates, Japan surpassed the U.S. in 1993 to become the world's largest manufacturing economy.

- Japan jumped from 6th to 2nd in per-capita income between 1989 and 1993.

- Japan's net national savings totaled $819 billion in 1993. As calculated by the Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, this represented 56 percent of the industrialized world's savings. By contrast, the savings in the U.S. came to just $75 billion, or only 5 percent of the industrial world's total.

---

Not a Japanese conspiracy, mind you, but an American conspiracy. High-minded Americans in the economics profession and the media have been consistently trying to keep the world safe for utopian free trade, Finkleton argues.

In attempting to do that, they have blindsided the American public about the reality of East Asia's superior, Confucian-based system of economics. It's a system of largely non-confrontational economics that is not only responsible for a new brand of East Asian mercantilism but also for what Finkleton is convinced will allow Japan to overtake the U.S. in just five years.
Habebe
Member
Fri Apr 09 10:32:08
JAPAN MAY STILL SURPASS U.S. TO BECOME LEADING ECONOMIC POWER BY THE YEAR 2000
Reviewed by Ronald E. Yates, a financial writer who served 8 years as the Tribune's Tokyo bureau chief
CHICAGO TRIBUNE
(1995)

http://www...4-10-9504100029-story,amp.html

Measured by current exchange rates, Japan surpassed the U.S. in 1993 to become the world's largest manufacturing economy.

- Japan jumped from 6th to 2nd in per-capita income between 1989 and 1993.

- Japan's net national savings totaled $819 billion in 1993. As calculated by the Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, this represented 56 percent of the industrialized world's savings. By contrast, the savings in the U.S. came to just $75 billion, or only 5 percent of the industrial world's total.

---

Not a Japanese conspiracy, mind you, but an American conspiracy. High-minded Americans in the economics profession and the media have been consistently trying to keep the world safe for utopian free trade, Finkleton argues.

In attempting to do that, they have blindsided the American public about the reality of East Asia's superior, Confucian-based system of economics. It's a system of largely non-confrontational economics that is not only responsible for a new brand of East Asian mercantilism but also for what Finkleton is convinced will allow Japan to overtake the U.S. in just five years.
jergul
large member
Fri Apr 09 10:56:48
Top 5 Countries with the Biggest Manufacturing Output

1. China: $4T (28.37% of world total)
2. United States $2.3T (16.65% of world total)
3. Japan: $1T (7.23% of world total)
4. Germany: $806B (5.78% of world total)
5. South Korea: $459B (3.29% of world total)


===============

I am uncertain by to what extent having a deficit financed and bloated service sector actually amounts to global dominance.
Habebe
Member
Fri Apr 09 11:06:38
Jergul, Do you deny China will soon be facing a demographics crisis not unlike japan?

It has a shrinking and soon to have a much larger elder population in ratio towards working age people.
jergul
large member
Fri Apr 09 11:11:24
Sure, lets say exactly like Japan. With 10 times Japans population (or whatever).

So its manufacturing could really only grow organically to 10 trillion to the US 2.3 trillion.
Paramount
Member
Fri Apr 09 11:12:46
They can probably produce a lot of new babies fast if they want to. Chairman Xi just need to give the order.
jergul
large member
Fri Apr 09 11:13:36
Did you know that China is currently producing more ship tonnage that the US did at the all time peak of construction during world war 2?

If we ignore the service sector, it is not a question of when China will surpass the US as it already has. The question is how many times bigger it will become.
habebe
Member
Fri Apr 09 12:30:27
"They can probably produce a lot of new babies fast if they want to. Chairman Xi just need to give the order."

And in 30 years it would pay off, in the mean time it's 29 years of a greater drain on economy.


http://youtu.be/vTbILK0fxDY

decent explanation. If they could get more immigrants they might be fine.


Jergul, And how much of that $ now goes towards paying the benefits of the retired?

Seriously I'm curious to find out how much it costs avg payout per retiree and how much total will be paid by the working class left.

habebe
Member
Fri Apr 09 12:33:33
Also 2 thing

1. We've agreed to disagree before about a 15-20% over estimation of chinas GDP.

2.remember about 25% of their products are actually just knock off western products.

When I was checking out stihl (German) chainsaws it was so bad they needed to set up a program to help get rid of the fake dangerous chinese knockoff chainsaws.
jergul
large member
Fri Apr 09 19:08:42
habebe
Chinas unfunded pension liabilities are 6 trillion. Yours are 47 trillion.
habebe
Member
Fri Apr 09 21:32:48
China has enjoyed a continuously growing work force since the late 1970s. Simultaneously, the total dependency ratio in China decreased from almost 70 percent in 1980 to about 34 percent in 2010. However, an important turning point was reached in 2011, as total dependency ratio was set to increase again after 30 years of population bonus. As can be seen from the above graph, until 2100, child-dependency is estimated to remain steady between 20 and 30 percent. Old-age dependency on the other hand is expected to grow from about 12 percent in 2010 to over 50 percent in 2060, implying a growing number of senior citizens that need support from the working population. The shift of age demographics in the near future in China is bound to have ineligible economical and social impacts. To learn more about age demographics in China, take a look at our dossier aging population in China.

http://www...age-dependency-ratio-in-china/

The Chinese elderly dependency ratio is 17% as of last year.By 2040 it will more than double to 38.3%.

Now I'm.not sahing that will cause a.collapse of the nation but that is a massive change in 20 years. It will put a financial burden on the economy and their growth rate will likely drop.
jergul
large member
Fri Apr 09 22:15:47
It puts a 6 trillion dollar burden on their economy in unfunded pension liabilities.

Compared to your 47 trillion in unfunded future liabilities.

Try to cherrypick something where your relative disadvantage is not quite as huge, mkay?
Habebe
Member
Sat Apr 10 05:13:47
And its over his head.
Habebe
Member
Sat Apr 10 05:22:40
Not surprising mr 2022...

Even if I just take your word on the figures. Your missing the big picture that fewer and fewer working age people are going to be available to pay that.

30-55 is that golden spot, hey make the most advances, most successful startups etc.

Any economist worth his salt, no matter what school of thought he had knows that the dependancy ratios are a huge factor.

They need immigration of working age people to continue to grow above 3%.

Now you put such a huge emphasis on creating actual products. But lets face it, they are a wish.com nation. Chinese goods are inferior to Japan, SK, Vietnam, US and Europe.

25% of their manufactured goods are actually knock offs.

Poll any western nation and see what they think of chinese.goods.
jergul
large member
Sat Apr 10 05:33:54
Ok, how many million 30-55s will the US have in 2030 and how many million 30-55s will China have in 2030.

Poll any nation and see what they think of goods produced in the USA.
jergul
large member
Sat Apr 10 05:39:46
Dependency ratios matter for pay as you go pension systems. It actually makes sense for you to let covid-19 kill of your elderly like you have.

In china it does not make as much sense as the pension exposure is much lower.

Now, retired people are not good consumers, so do drag on the service sector contribution to gdp.

But you cannot smite your enemies with the might of your service sector very effectively.

For that, you need the raw economic might of a manufacturing base.

A sector where the US is fast falling to less than 50% the size of China's.
Habebe
Member
Sat Apr 10 05:45:18
Ok but again if they can only max out at 6% growth in a catch up phase under prime ratios, how will they have higher growth rates than the US ( consistently 2-3%) when their ratio becomes drastically less beneficial?
jergul
large member
Sat Apr 10 05:52:26
Habebe
You do get that huge government deficits and very low interests rates are keeping your economy on artificial life support, right?
Habebe
Member
Sat Apr 10 05:56:35
Your avoiding the point.

But simce you mention Chinas debt to gdp ratio for a nation about to see a baby boomer.generation retire and make 10k a year ( less than US McDonald's workers) isnt at a great place either.But regardless the point is China unless they become open to immigration has a demographics problem that will drastically halt their growth to that of normal western nations likely.
Habebe
Member
Sat Apr 10 06:01:12
Also the US makes tons od.great products. Thanks to Tesla we make.good cars again.

The Swedes used to have a Locke down on great cars until Saab stopped making them and Volvo sold out.
Habebe
Member
Sat Apr 10 06:08:30
http://www...he-us-as-a-brand%3fcontext=amp

People do likenthe US brand.

Obviously media content is number one. Tech is number 2 and thanks to Tesla US cars have made a come back.

Have you seen the new Tesla Semi Trucks?! Light years ahead of anyone else.
Habebe
Member
Sat Apr 10 06:10:32
Also its kind of funny from a Norwegian, since Norway doesnt really make anything.

Your great at investing, true.

But lets face it your economy is oil, fish and wood. All naturally occurring extracted goods.
habebe
Member
Sat Apr 10 07:05:08
No wonder they have to spend so little. You almost feel bad, but she chose communism.

http://youtu.be/Us8uW-ZKK2s

maybe they won't have to pay for the elderly....but this is a future no one wants.
jergul
large member
Sat Apr 10 07:44:29
http://www...ries/overall-rankings-2020.pdf

Norway
Natural gas, Hydro-electric.

habebe
Member
Sat Apr 10 13:45:54
Ypur right. I forgot those.

But btw, Norway has more Tesla per capita* than any nation on earth.
Paramount
Member
Sat Apr 10 13:50:49
When I visit the Swedish West Coast, all the Tesla cars there has Norwegian license plates.
Habebe
Member
Sat Apr 10 14:03:10
Honestly, Until I seen the new.line up of Teslas I hadnt really wanted one.

But they are making some.crazy cool vehivles.

The new Semis and the fastest accelerating car ever ( 0-60 in 2 seconds) was cool, they were displayed in a convention thing I seen on YT.
TheChildren
Member
Sun Apr 11 10:42:08
not happen, not even happening, my bitchass rednecks

its happenED already.

why u so obsessed with this shit anyway. its not like it has any effect on anyone of us.

btw this shithole is just gonna shitty hole itself more and more, i predicted this shit 20 years ago even durin da early days of utopia.

g damn i shuldve left this shithole back then. now its 2 late.
Habebe
Member
Sun Apr 11 12:13:44
Yes a nation that that makes less than the Maldives rules the world.
chuck
Member
Sun Apr 11 13:59:25
China in its current form will never surpass the United States.

The US may continue to recede, but the world will never accept Chinese cultural and military hegemony the way they did US hegemony. The most China can realistically hope for is a "first among equals" arrangement, and even that seems unlikely. The US hegemony came about as an accident of geography sparing it from WWII destruction, the Marshall Plan, and a rapacious USSR. China cannot just step into that world leading role because they are ambitious and want to be in charge. Their naked ambition makes their neighbors and partners wary in a way the US did not.

They'll never amount to more than a regional bully. Hopefully their middle class continues to grow and it stops being an oppressive panopticon society, for the sake of the billion fuckers who don't have a choice but to live there.
TheChildren
Member
Sun Apr 11 14:26:43
hahaha is this why ur propaganda news always demonizes china and blames it for everything?

so that hopefully da rest of da world will never recognize china?

what are you, 10 years old? u soundin like that cuckold with a crush on a chick who married da other guy. and u refusin 2 accept that she rejected u this one time at a party and that she is now married 2 some other guy.

refusin 2 call her missiz. new last name. lmao who r u 2 refuse them. its not up 2 u. its up 2 them, cuckold.

shes gonna carry his child while u secretly still thinkin "oh if he treats her bad, ill jump in and then she will see me 4 u i really am"...

lmao grow da fuck up u stupid cuckold loser. she never even knows u and never spoken 2 u other than that 1 time at a party where she talked 2 u for 3 min and then promptly rejected u after u made a move...

lmao dumbass cuckolds
jergul
large member
Sun Apr 11 14:34:21
Chuck
I think the habebe was talking about gdp.

China's manufacturing sector is almost twice the size of the US'

China's agricultural sector is 4 times the size of the US.

So I guess habebe meant will China's service sector ever overtake the US'
Habebe
Member
Sun Apr 11 16:15:30
Jergul, Not just GDP, the whole package.

But in terms of GDP I dont think they can sustain. The growth levels people have claimed. 2020 aside they have had shrinking growth for a while and down to 4-6% depending if you take theur word on GDP or you measure power usage and freight etc.

Plus the sumple fact that odds are the US will remain 2-3% growth of 22 trillion or so, 4-6% and shrinking. Of 14-16 trillion either will go the way of Japan or go back and forth like Musk and Bezos.

I do think there are several nations we will see rise up as great regional powers with upcoming large working class populations.

That plays a big role in not just economic but scientific advancement, military etc.
Habebe
Member
Sun Apr 11 16:18:25
Jergul, As.for manufacturing, they had a huge advantage in cheap labor and good logistics. They no longer have really cheap labor.

US companies dominate

Automobiles

Space

Big tech

And it's not even close. Tesla for example is worth more now than the next 9 companies combined.
jergul
large member
Sun Apr 11 16:23:22
Habebe
So you don't think their service sector will ever catch up given that their manufacturing and agricultural sector is already far, far larger than those in the US, is that it?

The service sector is growing far, far faster than 6% a year.
Habebe
Member
Sun Apr 11 16:33:53
The Chinese medical field will likely explode, true, its part of an ageing population that the US and EU already have, Japan is way up there as well and its been a huge hit to their total growth.

Manufacturing will not grow much more as their biggest ace in the hole (cheap labor) is hitting a wall.

They still have far superior logistics than say Mexico or India for example.
Habebe
Member
Sun Apr 11 16:45:03
I still think it is entirely possible for China to bring in poor immigrants of working age and make it through this. Unlikely but they have aurprised us before.
Paramount
Member
Sun Apr 11 17:22:07
Doesn’t China already have hundreds of thousands of poor people, young and mid-age, both on the countryside and in cities, which can fill the need for labor? Do they really need to import labor?

I know that Chairman Xi recently declared victory on China’s war on poverty, but since the Chinese population is so huge, they probably have hundreds of thousands people who are still looking for a job.

China is no democracy, so they can just order people to move where the jobs are, and tell them to start working.
Habebe
Member
Sun Apr 11 17:29:15
Paramount the issue is relative age. China is ageing very fast.

If you have 10 people

2 are kids

6 are working adults

2 are retired

That is great for a growing economy.6 workers 4 dependants.

Twerk that to

2 kids

4 workers

4 elderly

That's a burden financially.

Empires are not built by hoarded of senior citizens.
Habebe
Member
Sun Apr 11 17:30:37
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_China
chuck
Member
Sun Apr 11 18:48:35
I'll never understand why you're so entrenched on the decline of America issue, Jergul. Certainly if I'm wrong and we are entering a period of Chinese hegemony, that's apt to blow for you? You're like the guy on the deck of the Titanic reminding everybody that you'd always said, "technically, it's impossible to be unsinkable."

Kudos for following the facts wherever they lead, I guess. I just don't see it happening from a qualitative perspective.

Japan, South Korea, Australia, and India as regional powers are arrayed against China's recently aggressive stances. They are hemmed in, they are greedy, and they are transparent in their ambitions.

If China could moderate itself, stop with the pissing contests in the South China Sea, stop with Hong Kong, and just keep building their engine while putting on a nice face I'd be much more worried.

As it is though, what does China have going for it? One billion people working under the whip of a despot in Beijing? China won't last.
chuck
Member
Sun Apr 11 18:52:28
I'll take it a step further, even. The western world would be better off if we disengaged from China.

The debt would certainly present a problem. We were plenty able to feed ourselves, clothe ourselves, and thrive while China could do nothing but tear itself a new one over and over for decades. The addiction to cheap shit from China needs to be broken.
chuck
Member
Sun Apr 11 18:57:03
Shit, I forgot Russia.

Russia isn't arrayed with those guys, and Russia certainly encourages China knowing that China is a PITA for the US. Russia has no interest in Chinese ascendency either though, the occasional summit and agreement notwithstanding.
Habebe
Member
Sun Apr 11 19:40:46
http://www...-other-countries-2010-to-2050/

Here is a good amount of info on demographics in the coming future.

However, this doesn't take into account technical advances, climate change* and politics like wars or even more diseases.

Climate Change could** be a pandoras box drastically changing migration away from low lying territory and hotter climates towards newer climates.

As for the US immigration long term is probably what keeps us from a shrinking population and allowing us to age slower than Europe and Asia.
Sam Adams
Member
Sun Apr 11 21:26:50
I have decided that china will take over the US easily.

http://www...y-uniforms-available-in-april/

New Marine Corps maternity uniforms available in April
Sam Adams
Member
Sun Apr 11 21:27:46
How hard is mandarin to learn anyway?
Habebe
Member
Sun Apr 11 21:32:08
Sam, At this rate china may become the more palatable plqce to live.

I hear White people can get jobs to just act like they work for companies.Works for me.
Habebe
Member
Mon Apr 12 17:07:52
http://www...0/02/ageing-global-population/

I think these charts illistrate it greatly.

Especially something Ive been talking abpit for years, which is the US pays the wrong kind of attention to Mexico, we should push for much greater ties in all aspects with them. Its a like.minded nation
Habebe
Member
Mon Apr 12 17:10:12
I submitted too early.

Norway has some of the best demographics changes in Europe actually.

But as for Asia I think we could see Indonesia step up, Australia/Saudis Arabia/Israelto a lesser extent.
Habebe
Member
Mon Apr 12 17:10:47
Bit again CC and politics plays a larger role.
Habebe
Member
Mon Apr 12 17:11:05
Or rather a large role*
Habebe
Member
Thu Apr 15 18:41:54
http://amp...rols-should-be-scrapped-retain

China's central bank jas issued a similar warning.
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