Utopia Talk / Politics / Vaccines forever...

Seb rank	Sun Apr 11 19:56:28 2021 Nim: Given the policy was drawn up before the trials completed, then the language is inherently conditional. Jergul: That's flatly contradicted. Safety is the first thing considered and the 174 reg requirements on safety are the same as film market authorisation.
Seb rank	Sun Apr 11 19:56:36 2021 Full.
Seb rank	Sun Apr 11 20:01:49 2021 http://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4759
jergul rank	Sun Apr 11 20:15:23 2021 "Once comprehensive data on the product have been obtained, standard marketing authorisation can be granted" The current data is therefore incomprehensive. Emergency authorization protects companies from being sued Seb. The jepardy rests entirely on whoever is getting the jab.
jergul rank	Sun Apr 11 20:18:54 2021 Like I have repeatedly said. This is fine for people capable of consent who are actually at risk from the virus. It is not fine for those not at risk who are incapable of consent. They should wait until comprehensive data on the product has been obtained and proper approval has been granted. At least the producer can be sued if things go south at that point.
Rugian rank	Sun Apr 11 21:49:52 2021 "It is not fine for those not at risk who are incapable of consent. So now we've graduated to arguing that parents and guardians should be stripped of their custodial rights. You're absolutely shooting the moon by going all-in on the craziness here.
Seb rank	Sun Apr 11 22:21:52 2021 Yes jergul, efficacy data (and also data on supply chain and manufacturing etc normally required for marketing authority.
jergul rank	Sun Apr 11 23:12:50 2021 Ruggy Nope, I mean that ethically, children cannot consent, so special care needs to be made to ensure their safety and well-being. Informed consent in regards to parents. Let parents know they are giving their kids vaccines with emergency authorization only and that they do not have the right to sue the company if anything goes horribly wrong. The informed bit is definitely not in place. Everyone seems to think that emergency use authorization means FDA approved. It does not. Seb Comprehensive data has not been obtained. Once data normally required for marketing license is available, then of course a marketing license can be issued and people can sue the producer if things go horribly wrong.
jergul rank	Sun Apr 11 23:16:11 2021 Hell, even the US military gets that it cannot ethically order soldiers to take vaccines that are not FDA approved.
Habebe rank	Sun Apr 11 23:37:11 2021 This is 50% vaccines 6, yes?
Habebe rank	Sun Apr 11 23:38:28 2021 Jergul jumped the gun at 50%, he has sort of admitted that now. Meh, shit happens 59-65%, sounds reasonable.
jergul rank	Sun Apr 11 23:46:03 2021 habebe I assumed that children would not be vaccinated under emergency use authorization in 2021. That accounts for about 15% of those not vaccinated in my estimate.
Seb rank	Sun Apr 11 23:49:44 2021 Jergul: The regulatory framework is clear. Phase 3 trials, the data that's curtailed and provided on a rolling basis, is about efficacy, not safety. The published details are all clear that the safety thresholds are the same. Efficacy and some of the production QA requirements are the delta, and this is stated repeatedly. Seizing on a reference that in context is referring to that delta and arguing it means safety data is tantamount to dishonesty. Similarly, an FDA EUA (as opposed to compassionate or investigative use authorisation) is explicitly a relaxation only of the *effectiveness* - "reasonable to believe it may be effective". As for ordering people to take the vaccine, that goes to consent again; but yes, it's about the level of proof of efficacy, which is quite high for certainly of a positive effect. You can't even do efficacy trials until you've demonstrated safety to a high level. At this point jergul, you are starting to veer into vaccine skepticism lunacy. There are good reasons to vaccinate children, but efficacy data for child cohort data is needed.
Seb rank	Sun Apr 11 23:50:14 2021 And as with adults, that would be recommendation, not compulsion.
Habebe rank	Mon Apr 12 00:11:35 2021 Daemon "Here's a chance to fix your trade deficit with China: http://abc...nes-effectiveness-low-77002863 Official: Chinese vaccines' effectiveness low In a rare admission of the weakness of Chinese coronavirus vaccines, the country’s top disease control official says their effectiveness is low and the government is considering mixing them to give them a boost [...]" Actually wiping out their elderly may be an wffective way to fix their upcoming decency ratio problems, somewhat.
Habebe rank	Mon Apr 12 00:15:20 2021 Or it goes to show once again they may be the worlds factory, but it's a nation of wish.com quality.
Paramount rank	Mon Apr 12 00:32:08 2021 ” Chinese vaccines' effectiveness low” Maybe because the Chinese doesn’t have the blueprints of virus, so it is more difficult for them to produce an antidote/vaccine. The British and the Russian vaccine are also not that effective. It is only the US vaccine that is almost 100% effective. If the virus originated from Fort Detrick it can explain why the US/Pfizer antidote/vaccine is so good: they have the virus blueprints!
Sam Adams rank	Mon Apr 12 04:23:11 2021 8 people in israel were infected with SA strain after being innoculated with pfizer. Journalists: omg pfizer might not work! Drudge: pfizer cant stop SA strain!! Godamnit... journalists are as retarded as jergul.
Sam Adams rank	Mon Apr 12 04:25:32 2021 "I assumed that children would not be vaccinated under emergency use authorization in 2021." Poor excuse. The US will hit 50% without kids by about may 31. Also... your assumption on that was bad. Perhaps you should double check some of your other assumptions.
jergul rank	Mon Apr 12 06:46:17 2021 Seb Habitual gaslighting is not an attractive trait. Astro Zeneca was pulled from various markets because new patterns of safety emerged. It will *never* be approved for the use on children. What you are arguing is blatantly untrue. High levels of safety is not established without comprehensive data and the right to sue does not exist until formal approval has been granted. You cannot recommend to children that they take a drug. They cannot consent. And I seriously doubt you are going to secure informed consent from guardians as you continue to insist that emergency authorization is somehow exactly the same thing as formal FDA (or equivalent) approval. Hoodwinking people into vaccinating their children is unethical, seb.
jergul rank	Mon Apr 12 07:26:41 2021 I frankly don't understand why many of you are struggling with this. Lets say the total mortality to covid-19 for infected, but otherwise healthy children is 1 in 25000. High levels of safety would need to document that any vaccine programme kills less than 1 in 25000 children vaccinated. This documentation does not exist.
Seb rank	Mon Apr 12 09:52:32 2021 Jergul: Funny, I was about to accuse you of gaslighting. I've provided multiple references to official docs that are clear that the reduced data requirements are on efficacy and supply chain; not safety. You've selectively quoted any sentence from that you can find where the word efficacy hasn't been explicitly stated to maintain safety is insufficient. "because new patterns of safety" Even if the blood clot issue is proved (no regulator has been fully convinced there is a linkage) the rate of incidents are far lower than the *same condition* as caused by aspirin, or the pill. The issue is far more about confidence than medicine. "You cannot recommend to children that they take a drug. They cannot consent." What blathering nonsense is this? We vaccinate 2 year olds to year 7 with flu every year on the back of JCVI recommendations. It's the parents that consent. The lack of the child themselves consenting does not mean the vaccination becomes mandatory rather than recommendation.
Seb rank	Mon Apr 12 09:55:41 2021 Bottom line: vaccination of children could be recommended once the level of saluditos efficacy data for that cohort is equivalent to that work which we have proceeded with the adult population.
Seb rank	Mon Apr 12 09:58:15 2021 If the vaccine had a risk of killing 1 in 25000 recipients (including children), the the current efficacy trials could not have gone ahead.
jergul rank	Mon Apr 12 10:25:30 2021 Seb Emergency use authorization is not the same thing as FDA or equivalent approval. Bottom line. Informed consent will not be gotten from parents unless they are clearly informed that the vaccine that will be used on their children has not been approved by the FDA or equivalent organizations, and that they have no right to sue if the vaccine does harm their children because the vaccine has not been approved. The ethics of not getting informed consent is of course horrible.
Habebe rank	Mon Apr 12 10:50:10 2021 People feel safer with their kids vaxed. A healthy adult has very little chance of fatal reactions to covid either. Plus we have no idea how dangerous new variations are and generally the vaccines have had at least partially protected against them...parents choice. Anyway pfizer is already trying to get clearance for 12-15 year olds.
Rugian rank	Mon Apr 12 11:04:39 2021 Jergul is just making a distinction without a difference. If a person willingly decides to take the vaccine, he can willingly decide to get his children vaccinated as well. Jergul is fabricating lines of argument that are completely detached from reality. He has absolutely lost it.
Rugian rank	Mon Apr 12 11:05:01 2021 (Who wants to be the one who tells him about the EUA fact sheet)
Rugian rank	Mon Apr 12 11:07:45 2021 Imagine living 4,000 miles away from the US and being delusional enough to think you have any idea of how vaccine administration actually works or what disclosures and forms are involved when getting the vaccine. Fucking insane, jergul. Your inability to eat the L here is really damaging my opinion of you, seriously.
Nimatzo rank	Mon Apr 12 13:02:54 2021 In light of how much you respect Jergul, that is very serious.
Seb rank	Mon Apr 12 14:13:55 2021 Jergul: I'm literally on the FDA website explaining the difference between an FDA EUA and full authorisation. Yes you are correct. It's not the same thing. It requires same level of safety, but proof of efficacy and supply chain documentation are lower.
jergul rank	Mon Apr 12 14:31:27 2021 Seb Oh, so I was wrong? People can sue vaccine producers for vaccines given under emergency use protocols? Pfft. Ruggy Imagine the world's smallest violin playing to your whines.
Seb rank	Mon Apr 12 15:05:43 2021 Jergul: You are wrong in suggesting the safety is lower.
Rugian rank	Mon Apr 12 15:07:26 2021 Nim Jergul should really be assessing his life choices right now, its that serious. But honestly, how else is one supposed to react to him here? He made a wildly inaccurate estimate, and rather than just admit "you know what? You're right, I low-balled it a bit," he'd rather throw out an endless stream of batshit insane reasons why he's not wrong. MAGAverse! America is a 3rd world country! Polling places! Food deserts! EUA! Children shouldnt be vaccinated! It's pathetic. Manning up and admitting you're wrong isn't the worst thing in the world to do. Instead he'd prefer to make Seb sound intelligent and reasonable, which is blowing my mind.
jergul rank	Mon Apr 12 16:13:46 2021 Seb I am saying safety is not sufficiently documented. How many facemask scandals have you had so far? Its not that the masks don't work, its that the documentation is lacking. How nice the world would be if we just waived documentation. Here is some snakeoil. Sure it helps against covid. Nimi The estimate is still actually pretty accurate if you assume children will not be vaccinated under emergency use regimes.
jergul rank	Mon Apr 12 16:29:50 2021 Ruggy Astra-Zenica has emergency use authorization in the UK. Would you consent to it being given to your notional children?
Sam Adams rank	Mon Apr 12 16:50:24 2021 Stupid question. Astrazenca sucks, and is not authorized in the US due to multiple statistical errors(intentional?) made in the application combined with low efficacy. Any vax questions to americans should be realistic... ask about our vastly superior mrna vaxes that we are using.
Rugian rank	Mon Apr 12 17:27:32 2021 Jergul No, for the reasons that Sam said. A parent should also be allowed to turn down any of the other vaccines. People are informed about the EUA; it's one of the things contributing to vaccine hesitancy in the US. The people who do end up getting the vaccine decided that the benefits still outweighed the risks.
Rugian rank	Mon Apr 12 17:29:22 2021 Anyway. April 11: % of US that has received at least 1 dose: 35.9% (+0.6%) % of US fully vaccinated: 21.9% (+0.6%)
Sam Adams rank	Mon Apr 12 17:34:06 2021 At this rate we will be able to start vaccinating europe in another 2 months or so. Like i said a year ago, you euros better thank us after we save you.
Habebe rank	Mon Apr 12 19:10:40 2021 Mexico first. For starters, they weren't traitors like Canada who went with the EU because they feared rhe US would put export bans,Oh the irony. 2ndly, if we have illegals running over here anyway, atleast they will be vaccinated.
Sam Adams rank	Mon Apr 12 20:06:27 2021 Ya, seb and jergul have to ask nicely first.
Rugian rank	Mon Apr 12 20:28:08 2021 April 12: % of US that has received at least 1 dose: 36.4% (+0.5%) % of US fully vaccinated: 22.3% (+0.4%) ---- For whatever reason, the data published on Monday always seems to show a lower rate of new vaccinations as compared to the rest of the week.
Sam Adams rank	Mon Apr 12 20:31:02 2021 Less vaxes over the weekend, and theres a bit of lag in the data. This means theres about 1% extra vaxes that are still working through the counting process. More bad news for jergul.
Sam Adams rank	Mon Apr 12 20:32:22 2021 My may 31 estimate might be a few weeks too late at this rate. SD with may 19 has a chance at winning.
TheChildren rank	Mon Apr 12 21:04:50 2021 whiteys caught lyin about chinese vaccines again. supposedly they now sayin chinese vaccin is ineffective and how china admitted it. but thats not da case. china never said these words. whitey fake news media lying hard again. http://www...rkey-sinovac-int-idUSKBN2AV18P 83% effective, motherfuckers. noone ever said anything about 50% except for whiteys.
TheChildren rank	Mon Apr 12 21:07:07 2021 " Official: Chinese vaccines' effectiveness low In a rare admission of the weakness of Chinese coronavirus vaccines, the country’s top disease control official says their effectiveness is low and the government is considering mixing them to give them a boost [...]" Actually wiping out their elderly may be an wffective way to fix their upcoming decency ratio problems, somewhat. " _________________ bitch. its 83% effective. higher than astra cough cough crap. higher than j&j. nobody ever said Chinese vaccines are ineffective. thats ur whitey media lying about shit. The Chinese man simply said that their vaccines are lower in effectiveness. Meaning not 90% but 80%. Whitey fake media immediately accused china being 50%. fakenews got exposed again. http://www...rkey-sinovac-int-idUSKBN2AV18P
Habebe rank	Tue Apr 13 02:12:41 2021 http://www...d-quarter-lawmaker?context=amp US saves the EU with shirty JJ vaxed....while we stick with Moderna and Pfizer/Biontec.... Tc, Efficacy rates based on 3rd level trials are flawed comparisons.
Sam Adams rank	Tue Apr 13 03:57:45 2021 US saving the world again.
CrownRoyal rank	Tue Apr 13 13:42:43 2021 U.S. Calls for Pause on Johnson & Johnson Vaccine After Clotting Cases http://nyti.ms/329ENdt
Paramount rank	Tue Apr 13 14:43:28 2021 Why does the EU buy this crappy vaccine that people are dying from. First AstraZeneca and now J&J. lol EU should cancel the purchase and buy Pfizer’s vaccine instead. AZ and J&J fucked up. No one does really want their vaccine anymore.
CrownRoyal rank	Tue Apr 13 14:45:59 2021 AZ and JJ vaccines are being judged by some perfection standard, it sure seems. 6 clotting cases out of almost 7million shots for JJ, they should not have paused it
Sam Adams rank	Tue Apr 13 15:59:41 2021 Ya, 1 in a million isnt bad... AZ was 1 in 100k i believe. j+j was the main hope for the third world. If that doesnt work... damn.
Sam Adams rank	Tue Apr 13 16:00:14 2021 Still not good news.
Sam Adams rank	Tue Apr 13 16:17:29 2021 The stats are still pretty good... J+J is almost certainly worth giving to most people (perhaps not young ladies?)... way better than astrazenca. This kindof news does a lot of vax hesitantcy damage though.
Sam Adams rank	Tue Apr 13 16:32:07 2021 Theres a decent chance its related to birth control pills. Hopefully its that.
Paramount rank	Tue Apr 13 16:49:50 2021 If it’s only women who has died from side effects, then it could be because of birth control pills.
jergul rank	Tue Apr 13 17:41:51 2021 New knowledge about a vaccine's safety? How is that possible? Pfft.
Sam Adams rank	Tue Apr 13 18:00:46 2021 A refinement to the data in the 1e-6 probability range will get jergul all butthurt?
jergul rank	Tue Apr 13 18:23:39 2021 Interaction with birth control is a pretty significant find Sammy. You are off by at least an order of magnitude on the impact of affected groups btw. Emergency use authorization is not the same thing as FDA approval.
Sam Adams rank	Tue Apr 13 18:45:01 2021 "You are off by at least an order of magnitude on the impact of affected groups btw." Yes jergul, i gave the whole population number. If it is related to birth control pills or breeding age females, obviously that subset would be at a higher rate. Still better than AZ, and worth giving to almost all people. Especially in less-devoloped locations like europe that have cone up with no good alternatives.
TheChildren rank	Tue Apr 13 19:30:38 2021 sinovac is superior to jj and astra. 1,3 million turks already have sinovac. noone died. 853 got corona. Prevtns 100% of severe cases. jj 1,1 mill 7 people already in critical condition, not even countin corona cases. prevents 80% of severe cases. got damn, u got all owned again.
jergul rank	Tue Apr 13 19:49:17 2021 Sammy For the impacted group in Norway, the vaccine is way more deadly than covid-19 is. That is the whole fucking problem with winging it and giving people that are not at risk a vaccine that may be risky to them.
Rugian rank	Tue Apr 13 19:51:22 2021 "For the impacted group in Norway, the vaccine is way more deadly than covid-19 is." Please provide your statistical analysis demonstrating this.
jergul rank	Tue Apr 13 19:56:27 2021 Ruggy For you? Why?
Rugian rank	Tue Apr 13 19:58:00 2021 For the same reason why this is a thread series in the first place. You have an atrocious grasp of numbers.
jergul rank	Tue Apr 13 20:00:44 2021 Ruggy Wrong. Try again.
Habebe rank	Tue Apr 13 20:01:12 2021 Speaking of numbers the US has increased its daily vaccines given out to .96 , even with the JJ problems, thats impressive at around 3 mill a day.
jergul rank	Tue Apr 13 20:05:15 2021 I will however give you the assumptions. 1. So, how many women aged 20-40 have died of covid-19 per 100k in Norway anyway? 2. So, what fraction of the 1.1 million vaccinated were vulnerable women? Express that per 100k 3. Answer to 1 gives x per 100k 4. Anser to 2 gives x per 100k 4 is larger than 3.
Habebe rank	Tue Apr 13 20:13:49 2021 Arent you still in lockdowns?
Rugian rank	Tue Apr 13 20:24:47 2021 "1. So, how many women aged 20-40 have died of covid-19 per 100k in Norway anyway? 2. So, what fraction of the 1.1 million vaccinated were vulnerable women? Express that per 100k 3. Answer to 1 gives x per 100k 4. Anser to 2 gives x per 100k 4 is larger than 3." Lmao
Rugian rank	Tue Apr 13 20:27:45 2021 For the record, of you were limit the analysis to fatalities, then the appropriate lineup would be to compare the number of women aged 20-40 who would be likely to die of Covid if a 100% infection rate was achieved to the number of women aged 20-40 who would be likely to die of J&K if a 100% vaccination rate was achieved. You do you though.
Rugian rank	Tue Apr 13 20:28:17 2021 *J&J
Rugian rank	Tue Apr 13 20:32:10 2021 April 13: % of US that has received at least 1 dose: 36.8% (+0.4%) % of US fully vaccinated: 22.7% (+0.4%) ---- Will be curious to see how this data tracks over the next week or so.
jergul rank	Tue Apr 13 22:10:28 2021 Ruggy Wrong. There is no certainty of catching covid. You should use your method on gun deaths. If we assume that 100% of the population will have a gun accident, how many will die if 5% of gun accidents result in fatalities ZOMG Ruggy has proven guns are bad.
Sam Adams rank	Tue Apr 13 22:15:11 2021 Jergul math... lol
jergul rank	Tue Apr 13 22:24:20 2021 Sammy math... lol. In fact. Sammy anything... lol.
Sam Adams rank	Tue Apr 13 22:39:43 2021 Jergul, fix your math processor please.
jergul rank	Tue Apr 13 23:22:33 2021 Sammy What you don't seem to get is that maths in any form are based on assumptions, or axioms. These threads a case in point. I assumed that: 1. Emergency use authorization would last until 2022 2. Emergency use protocols would not be applied on children. Fine. I should have seen how deeply mass hysteria had taken grip. But lets wait and see. As to the Jenssen vaccine. I thought 6 women had died. That is not the case. The vaccine may merely be just as dangerous to a group of women in Norway as the risk of covid-19 is.
Rugian rank	Tue Apr 13 23:32:08 2021 Seriously, what are these ridiculous arguments? It's pretty much a statistical given that I will never be shot in my lifetime. It's also a near-statistical given that COVID would eventually spread to me in an uncontrolled environment. These two things are not equal to each other in terms of probability.
Habebe rank	Wed Apr 14 00:04:48 2021 So a duck, a rabbi and Trump walk into a bar.....
jergul rank	Wed Apr 14 00:36:44 2021 Ruggy You statistical chance of dying by firearm is the same as for a Norwegian to die of covid about 12 per 100k per year.
Habebe rank	Wed Apr 14 00:44:36 2021 Yeah but Norway is a hermit nation on lockdown.
Rugian rank	Wed Apr 14 22:40:56 2021 Exactly! What, are you planning to keep Norway on permanent shutdown to keep the death rate down?
Rugian rank	Wed Apr 14 22:43:06 2021 J&J? Never heard of that bitch. Pfizer and Moderna are the only homies I need to roll with yo. ---- April 14: % of US that has received at least 1 dose: 37.3% (+0.5%) % of US fully vaccinated: 23.1% (+0.4%)
TheChildren rank	Thu Apr 15 13:51:02 2021 Chinese vaccine 100% protection against hospilization and severe symptoms. Chinese vaccine superior. Better than Pfizer, JJ and astra.
Sam Adams rank	Thu Apr 15 17:37:11 2021 Any of you euros get a vax yet?
jergul rank	Thu Apr 15 19:04:48 2021 The wife has.
Jebbebiah Wilkins rank	Thu Apr 15 20:14:34 2021 Big pharma gets serious when someone wants to cut their profits: http://nyp...ry-halts-who-approved-vaccine/ Denmark’s top health official suddenly fainted at a press conference Wednesday announcing the country would be halting use of the AstraZeneca vaccine. Video of the briefing shows Tanja Erichsen, the head of Denmark’s Medicines Agency, standing in front of reporters and then collapsing without warning, BBC News reported.
Jebbebiah Wilkins rank	Thu Apr 15 20:16:00 2021 Here is the video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hhmwKvtV3l0 Did she get shot?
Rugian rank	Thu Apr 15 22:28:18 2021 Antics worth of a Bond villain. Nice one Astra.
Rugian rank	Thu Apr 15 22:32:11 2021 April 15: % of US that has received at least 1 dose: 37.9% (+0.6%) % of US fully vaccinated: 23.6% (+0.5%)
Rugian rank	Thu Apr 15 22:39:12 2021 Interestingly, the UK has experienced a sharp decline in vaccination rates over the last two weeks. Looks like they hit their limit once 45% of the population got their first dose. http://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccination They'll still easily get to 50%, but it'll take a while.
Sam Adams rank	Thu Apr 15 22:51:07 2021 The UK has some major problems and it is difficult to compare them to developed countries. Because they didnt have enough, They chose to do first shots for all people while delaying second shots, and may be trying to catch up on that front now. They are using the shitty AZ vax which may be paused for some age groups. They are in a little squabble with the EU over vax exports. So there are many reasons why their first shot rates are changing, none of them applicable to first world vax campaigns.
jergul rank	Thu Apr 15 23:02:44 2021 "Norway will stop using the Oxford-AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine as part of its vaccination program because of the risk of side effects in the younger population, the Norwegian Institute of Public Health announced on Thursday. The institute said there is now a “greater risk associated with the AstraZeneca vaccine than with the Covid-19 disease in Norway,” in a statement on its website."
Sam Adams rank	Thu Apr 15 23:05:04 2021 Lol@seb. Remember when you argued for months that the UK would be able to produce a good vax? Anyway, just a reminder to thank the US when you weenies get vaxed.
jergul rank	Thu Apr 15 23:05:30 2021 Literally, the FHI means that in Norway for the population that has not yet been vaccinated, it is more dangerous the get the AstraZeneca shot than it is to remain exposed and wait for a different vaccine. The same is true for J&J of course, so I consider that matter settled.
jergul rank	Thu Apr 15 23:06:17 2021 Sammy Do you habitually thank China for all the trinkets you have purchased from there?
Rugian rank	Thu Apr 15 23:08:43 2021 "Because they didnt have enough, They chose to do first shots for all people while delaying second shots, and may be trying to catch up on that front now." That's not a bad theory. Prioritizing first shots was actually a good idea (rare for the UK) given the partial protection they provide, but as a result they now have a huge population that's due for the second shot.
Sam Adams rank	Thu Apr 15 23:10:56 2021 http://www...lags-other-developed-economies Japan vaxxing is in even worse shape than europe, olympics may be cancelled.
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