Utopia Talk / Politics / Vaccines VII: return of Mothra

habebe rank	Fri Apr 16 01:28:57 2021 JJ now has a 1 in a million chance of bad side effects.... Fun spat between "disease specialist" and Nate Silver...she claimed he wasnt qualified to comment on it. But this sounds like to me putting climate scientists in charge of economic policy involving CC...
Habebe rank	Fri Apr 16 03:03:12 2021 http://www...cess/ar-BB1fH5sI?ocid=BingNews So more evidence that the Chinese vaccines being sold are shit, like everything else from China, poor quality.
obaminated rank	Fri Apr 16 04:43:11 2021 Shockingly unshocking
Habebe rank	Fri Apr 16 05:05:47 2021 http://the...ely-needed-within-12-months-of In an odd twist, Jergul may soet pf kind of be partly right. Pfizer says a 3rd dose vaccinne is likely. So, of we go by those standards the US may not benfully vaccinated on schedule.....bit still far ahead of the EU.
Sam Adams rank	Fri Apr 16 07:03:04 2021 Nah, the fact that some immunity is lost over a year doesnt change the fact that the US will be vaxed now.
Sam Adams rank	Fri Apr 16 07:18:15 2021 "So more evidence that the Chinese vaccines being sold are shit" Yikes. 55% effective after 2 doses? Even sebs astrazenca isnt that bad.
jergul rank	Fri Apr 16 09:49:22 2021 Habebe I was not thinking of booster shots, so even an early need would not make me correct. Other things are making me right, like the Norwegian FDA validating that certain vaccines are more dangerous than the risk of covid in Norway. Or say the UK vaccination rates dropping before 50% partially vaccinated.
Habebe rank	Fri Apr 16 09:52:22 2021 The risk of covis in Norway while on lockdown?
jergul rank	Fri Apr 16 10:03:38 2021 I dunno, I will ask my mates when have a few beers at the pub later today.
jergul rank	Fri Apr 16 10:06:53 2021 We don't have lockdowns like you do habebe. We lock down locally if there are local infections. You can to that when contact tracing works and you have a good picture of what communities are infected.
Habebe rank	Fri Apr 16 10:10:57 2021 How do you think the US lockdown went? Nationally?
jergul rank	Fri Apr 16 10:21:26 2021 They went really poorly. Many of you died and continue to die.
Seb rank	Fri Apr 16 11:41:06 2021 Jergul: UK slow down is due to supply constraints, not demand issues. Will increase again shortly unless there is more bad news on the supply front.
jergul rank	Fri Apr 16 11:47:03 2021 Seb Israel also slowed down just past the 50 mark. Its a natural thing.
Habebe rank	Fri Apr 16 12:04:44 2021 The US finally made it to 1% daily!
TheChildren rank	Fri Apr 16 12:20:06 2021 "Yikes. 55% effective after 2 doses? Even sebs astrazenca isnt that bad. " we all know chinese vaccines are da best. 100% effective biotch. efficacy isnt same as effective. OWNED better than pfizer. and btw this is brazilian variant. pfzier has no effect on for example south african variant. OWNED OWNED OWNED
TheChildren rank	Fri Apr 16 12:40:24 2021 so it looks like usa is stealbuyin all vaccines from germany and belgium and other euros for itself. to use on its own country while fuckin over da rest of da world. rofl owned owned owned
Seb rank	Fri Apr 16 15:57:58 2021 Jergul: I can't comment on Israel. Specifically for the UK, it's a supply issue. As in we had to cancel a bunch of appointment slots at the vaccination centres.
Pillz rank	Fri Apr 16 18:47:46 2021 US deaths per million significantly lower then most of Europe. Dunno what jergul is smoking
Sam Adams rank	Fri Apr 16 19:05:32 2021 Got my second pfizer. Woohoo!
Habebe rank	Fri Apr 16 19:45:08 2021 Current death tolls per million really vary. The UK has 2, super low. Sweden is on par with the US (12-13) France and Italy are around 30.
Habebe rank	Fri Apr 16 19:46:34 2021 http://www...dwide-per-million-inhabitants/ Italy is actually about 40 (39 and change)
Rugian rank	Fri Apr 16 19:50:08 2021 This is the first time I've seen the "fully vaccinated" number increase faster than the "at least one dose" figure. April 16: % of US that has received at least 1 dose: 38.5% (+0.6%) % of US fully vaccinated: 24.3% (+0.7%)
jergul rank	Sat Apr 17 01:09:16 2021 hababe odd that you did not cite Norway's number. Ruggy Well, duh. How do you think you will peak below 50% without injecting children with emergency use authorization vaccines?
Rugian rank	Sat Apr 17 02:20:19 2021 jergul - It's more due to more people getting their second doses than to any decline of people getting their first dose.
Habebe rank	Sat Apr 17 02:54:47 2021 Jergul, 4.3 Double the UK about 1/3 of the US or Sweden.
Habebe rank	Sat Apr 17 02:56:38 2021 I had to click "more data" like 20 times. Not odd, just lazy.
Hrothgar rank	Sat Apr 17 17:29:33 2021 All 4 under 50 people (including two teens 16 and older) are now 2 dose vaccinated in Utah, USA. All Pfizer through CVS Pharmacies.
Hrothgar rank	Sat Apr 17 17:30:07 2021 * In my household.
Sam Adams rank	Sat Apr 17 17:33:23 2021 Sweet huh? It took longer than it should have to roll them out, but now that they are here, these mrna vaxes are pretty sweet.
Rugian rank	Sat Apr 17 20:59:47 2021 April 17: % of US that has received at least 1 dose: 39.0% (+0.5%) % of US fully vaccinated: 24.8% (+0.5%)
Sam Adams rank	Sun Apr 18 02:59:33 2021 Uh oh jergul. Just 10% more people need to accept the shot. And they havent even started advertising empty slots yet.
Sam Adams rank	Sun Apr 18 21:20:25 2021 Not gonna lie, that second shot gets on you if yoi have a strong immune system. I guess its a sign that the immune system is jumping into high gear so in some ways its welcome, but i could have used some sleep friday night... that would have been nice. My resting heartrate climbed from low 60s to 90. Which i guess isnt even that bad... but ive been turned into a weenie i think by not having a cold at all since this all started and not climbing much above 12k recently(thin air sucks worse i promise you). Tried to tough it out and not take painkillers as there is some evidence that painkillers after the shot create a very minor reduction in vaccine antibodies but i broke down at about hour 20 and gobbled aleve. Still, if thats the precise mrna response, the real thing must really suck if you get a full case. So all in all im real happy with it. Just dont plan to have a productive day the day after your second. Big bonus: time to go fly to a tropical resort and "work from home".
Habebe rank	Sun Apr 18 21:37:20 2021 Sam, Most ppl I know felt sick for 1-2 days after the 2nd shot. Literally everyone I knew who got it.
Wrath of Orion rank	Sun Apr 18 21:44:29 2021 It varies a lot. I know plenty of people that only felt a little off for a day or so. I also know quite a few that did not have a fun couple of days (or longer). Plan on taking a day or two off just in case, but it's not a certainty.
Hrothgar rank	Sun Apr 18 23:57:33 2021 I wouldn't say I felt "sick" entirely after the 2nd. I had the sensation of how I feel just before I get sick or just as I'm first starting to get sick for about a full day after. A bit "out of it" sensation and ready for a nap all day. My wife felt like she was legit sick for 8 or so hours. Kids got a slight 8 hour fever or so.
Rugian rank	Mon Apr 19 00:51:11 2021 One fourth of the national population is now fully vaccinated. April 18: % of US that has received at least 1 dose: 39.5% (+0.5%) % of US fully vaccinated: 25.4% (+0.6%)
jergul rank	Mon Apr 19 02:48:39 2021 http://edi...e-slowing-us-demand/index.html
Habebe rank	Mon Apr 19 03:03:34 2021 Well, demand will slow down in all countries eventually. The issue is Jergul drew a line in the sand at 50%. http://www...t-one-covid-shot-cdc-says/amp/
Sam Adams rank	Mon Apr 19 05:48:19 2021 Ya, a few redneck counties and african cities are not enough to stop us reaching 50% soon. Poor jergul. Besides those retards will get immunity one way or the other.
Rugian rank	Mon Apr 19 13:09:15 2021 You know, it's one thing to objectively look at the data and conclude that the US won't hit 50%. Right or wrong, that's at least an acceptable way to go about it. That's not what jerful is doing here though. He insists the US won't hit 50% because he WANTS the US to not hit 50%. He's such a rabid anti-American hater, he would prefer for a global pandemic to run unchecked in the US. So he will continue to blindly declare that 50% won't be reached, because he is wishing it won't be. And no amount of evidence to the contrary will change his mind. This is sad.
TheChildren rank	Mon Apr 19 14:55:13 2021 how does it feel 2 try 2 win place nr 45th? battlin 4 spots 45th and 46th? lol
Rugian rank	Mon Apr 19 15:10:08 2021 I have no idea what you are talking about.
jergul rank	Mon Apr 19 17:01:56 2021 Ruggy You are a sad human being.
habebe rank	Tue Apr 20 07:55:01 2021 I seen Otters have now tested positive for the T-virus...I mean covid...
Rugian rank	Tue Apr 20 20:49:02 2021 Jergul I'm actually quite a happy person. Especially with these numbers: April 18: % of US that has received at least 1 dose: 39.9% (+0.4%) % of US fully vaccinated: 25.7% (+0.3%)
Rugian rank	Tue Apr 20 20:49:34 2021 ^that's for the April 19
Seb rank	Wed Apr 21 11:16:24 2021 Fucking hell. Anyone red the FT article on the India surge? How much of that is due to the variant?
Rugian rank	Wed Apr 21 14:56:18 2021 I'd say its more due to their prematurely reopening despite having an extremely low vaccination rate. Combine that with bad hygienics and Hindu holy festivals and its hardly a surprise.
Rugian rank	Wed Apr 21 15:00:10 2021 April 20: % of US that has received at least 1 dose: 40.1% (+0.6%) % of US fully vaccinated: 26.0% (+0.6%) ---- 33 million Americans to go before we hit 50% for having gotten at least a first dose. It's make or break time for jergul's prediction.
Rugian rank	Wed Apr 21 15:09:50 2021 Doing some math here: -Total US population over the age of 18 is 258 million, of which 55 million are over the age of 65 -Of that 258 million over the age of 18, 51.1% (132 million) have gotten at least one dose -Of the 55 million over the age of 65, 80.3% (44 million) have gotten at least their first dose That means that for the 203 million in the ages 18-64 demographic, 43.2% (88 million) have gotten a first dose. If we assume that the remaining 33 million needed to hit 50% will all come from the 18-64ers, that would imply that that demographic would need to hit a 59.5% vaccination rate. That hardly seems unreasonable to me.
Habebe rank	Wed Apr 21 15:11:08 2021 I don't know that reopening had a big effect. Im not sure how effective lockdowns are here, let alone India.
Rugian rank	Wed Apr 21 15:14:33 2021 And that doesn't account for the 1 million of under 18 year olds who have gotten J&J.
Rugian rank	Wed Apr 21 15:19:21 2021 Habebe India has literally been holding full capacity cricket matches with no Covid restrictions. You can actually get an exemption from curfew if you're planning to attend a wedding. And the country just celebrated both Holi and Kumbh Mela. Those aren't responsible for kicking off the spike, but they're certainly contributing to it. Add in the fact that large parts of India are Third World in nature, and you basically have the worst breeding grounds possible for disease.
Habebe rank	Wed Apr 21 15:19:45 2021 They gave JJ to minors?
Habebe rank	Wed Apr 21 15:23:11 2021 I feel like India is just a bunch of overcrowded run down apartment buildings and as such, which Id think is as bad as the cricket matches.... Holi always looked fun.
Rugian rank	Wed Apr 21 15:26:18 2021 16 and 17 year olds can get J&J, yes.
Seb rank	Wed Apr 21 17:39:46 2021 Rugian: I thought that had been true for a while, so there's something specific going on. Also it looks like their variant is outcompeting the Kent strain, which is worrying potentially.
TheChildren rank	Wed Apr 21 17:44:29 2021 india is a breedin hole of diseases and bacteria. the ganges is filled with diseases. big surprise they got da nastiez strain of all.
TheChildren rank	Wed Apr 21 18:04:01 2021 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5K9tuDLAeU
Rugian rank	Thu Apr 22 02:10:07 2021 April 21: % of US that has received at least 1 dose: 40.5% (+0.4%) % of US fully vaccinated: 26.4% (+0.4%)
Rugian rank	Thu Apr 22 23:56:19 2021 April 22: % of US that has received at least 1 dose: 40.9% (+0.4%) % of US fully vaccinated: 26.9% (+0.5%)
Y2A rank	Fri Apr 23 00:38:25 2021 just got fully vaccinated yesterday (second shot of the Moderna). Feeling weak but no other side effects yet.
Sam Adams rank	Fri Apr 23 01:36:40 2021 Every single person i know has at least one vax now except for a pregnant lady who is skittish. Remember when I said that every american who really wanted one could get one in april and seb/jergul cried about it? Lol
jergul rank	Fri Apr 23 01:38:24 2021 This is about demand, not supply sammy.
Habebe rank	Fri Apr 23 01:50:59 2021 In regards to demand, I'll go out on a limb and say if you get then first vax, 95%+ will get the 2nd.
Sam Adams rank	Fri Apr 23 07:35:30 2021 "This is about demand, not supply sammy." The failure of europe is about supply. The fact that everyone i care about has an elite mrna vax is about supply.
Seb rank	Fri Apr 23 08:49:15 2021 Sam: So your view is the slightly less than 50% of American adults who have not received a 1st Dose don't *want* one? If so, jergul isn't so far off the money, given he's using population. That level of vaccine hesitancy would be a major issue? Note I said I think Jergul was being pessimistic and the US would get to at least 70% coverage. I also think you are wrong: many of the adults who have not yet had a first dose and will not get them by end of April aren't those that do not want them, but the proportion of the adult population badly underserved by medical services.
Habebe rank	Fri Apr 23 08:59:50 2021 Seb, I think it's 3 factors. 1. Vaccinne hesitancy. 2. Lack of follow through, now that a large portion of that at risk folks are covered, the medical apathy has set in, like not finishing up antibiotics 3. Less of a push to get the vaccinne to people. At risk people can get shots delivered tonyour door down here, doctors will call to tey and set up appointments as soon as available with the at risk groups ( my father) I had to call them however. The push may intensify, IDK. But I think its a lot more than just hesitancy.
Seb rank	Fri Apr 23 09:06:20 2021 Habebe: Yeah, it's all sorts of things is my point, not "everyone who wants one has one now". "At risk people can get shots delivered tonyour door down here" This is called domiciliary care, and is a standard feature of healthcare provision in European countries for all sorts of things, including Covid. In the UK we pay GP*s an additional £10 for each dose given under domiciliary care or visit to care home or other residential setting to inventivise it. *GPs, family medicine I think you can it in US? are privately owned, but commissioned by the NHS for health care provision. Because the state is effectively the single buyer it is free at point of care and the state can negotiate costs very effectively. OTOH GPs can also refuse to agree to sign up to services.
Habebe rank	Fri Apr 23 09:57:00 2021 For the covid shots I cant speak for outside of SC.Its available for other things like medicare covered my dad following his last surgery (new leg artery) But it's really been pushed without pre approval for covid in the state since we have large rural populations and people who have trouble getting access to transportation or just didn't want to go to a Dr office in the age of covid.
Habebe rank	Fri Apr 23 09:58:04 2021 But then again you can go to Wal-Mart or almost any pharmacy and get covid shots with appointment. Or in the spot if cancellations.
Sam Adams rank	Fri Apr 23 17:02:23 2021 "So your view is the slightly less than 50% of American adults who have not received a 1st Dose don't *want* one?" Many want one but are not in a rush. Younger adults, those with natural antibodies. Lazy people. Etc. Some are antivaxxers. Probably about 25%. More in redneck and african areas. Less in more intelligent areas.
Seb rank	Fri Apr 23 17:37:21 2021 Sam: In that case we will see a falling off. If the rate of vaccinations remains broadly similar after April, you were likely wrong. If the rate of vaccinations drops off, then you might be right. If the rate of vaccinations drops off far enough, Jergul will be right.
Habebe rank	Fri Apr 23 18:08:40 2021 At this point It would need a catastrophic drop off for Jergul to be right....Im saying it may drop down to 1-1.5 million by 60%.
Rugian rank	Fri Apr 23 18:11:14 2021 Yeah, he's definitely still on track to be wrong. J&J's fuckups have dragged us down a bit though...overall vaccinations per day are down somewhat since they had to put a pause on doses. Those guys need to get their shit together already.
Habebe rank	Fri Apr 23 18:14:32 2021 220 million bans in arms so far. Pave of vaccinations has dropped quite a bit though down to .65 per 100. That's still around 2 mill/day.
Rugian rank	Fri Apr 23 18:26:51 2021 Where are you getting .65? I haven't seen it go below .8 this week.
Habebe rank	Fri Apr 23 19:16:58 2021 Total number of vaccination doses administered per 100 people in the total population. This is counted as a single dose, and may not equal the total number of people vaccinated, depending on the specific dose regime (e.g. people receive multiple doses). Per April 22 , I think it's a 7 day rolling average.
Sam Adams rank	Fri Apr 23 19:36:13 2021 "In that case we will see a falling off." Indeed we should. We are already seeing this in redneck/african regions. My high tech city is still seeing strong demand... outreach to the dumber/poorer neighborhoods are just starting. The country as a whole should slow down around 50-55% i think... and then continue vaxxing more slowly. This should make you euros happy... once our vaxxing slows down, we will help you lesser nations.
Habebe rank	Fri Apr 23 19:44:26 2021 "outreach to the dumber/poorer neighborhoods are just starting." I live in a very black and redneck area and can attest that the effort to vaccinate has grown apathetic since most high risk individuals have been vaxed.
Sam Adams rank	Fri Apr 23 20:28:12 2021 If government was more trustworthy mandatory vaxes would be a good idea. Alas, government functionaries like seb are not nearly competent enough and 1) can't be trusted with any more power and 2) have destroyed their own credibility so many times that you can almost forgive the idiots for not wanting the vax. Almost.
Seb rank	Fri Apr 23 21:08:17 2021 Sam: There's a reason we have sequenced more samples and rolled out faster than you Sam. It's because we are more competent.
Sam Adams rank	Fri Apr 23 21:48:17 2021 "We can stop this by bureaucrats tracking and tracing". -seb, one year ago. "AstraZeneca is as good as pfizer" -also seb. Lol @seb, the beacon of competency.
Sam Adams rank	Fri Apr 23 22:07:47 2021 the UK: More corona deaths than the US. More lockdowns, more economic damage. Inferior vaccine. Lol seb, you did everything worse.
Pillz rank	Fri Apr 23 23:51:35 2021 Of the top 15 deaths/million, 1-13 are European. UK is 13th. Brazil is 14th. US is 15th. So Seb is doing better then the Czech Republic and Italy and Bosnia, but worse then Brazil. Wow
Seb rank	Sat Apr 24 14:02:36 2021 Sam: Firstly, those aren't quotes - my position was somewhat different to that. How is vaccine development a function of the public sector? RE AZ, in the end, the final figures on efficacy are closer to the higher range than they were the lower range you quoted - surprised you keep bringing that up. I mean, do you even think about what you write? The real world stats show the Oxford vaccine is as effective at reducing hospitalisations and spread as the others. And the same vaccine technology just produced a 77% effective malaria vaccine. In terms of deaths, that's a consequence of a lack of lockdown application at the right time (a political decision), yet you use lack of lockdown as a success metric - incoherent twaddle. And as for deaths, how the hell is it that five months after vaccinations started, US cumulative death toll is still rising so fast? It's because you are not vaccinating the at risk groups, and focusing on getting people full vaccinated rather than maixmising vaccine coverage - and killing Americans as a result.
Rugian rank	Sat Apr 24 15:15:01 2021 Habebe Are you getting your info from this source? http://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=~USA This says the rolling 7-day average for the US is 0.86 per 100. Which sounds about right. Come on man, don't undersell our vaccine rollout!
Rugian rank	Sat Apr 24 15:17:27 2021 April 23: % of US that has received at least 1 dose: 41.3% (+0.4%) % of US fully vaccinated: 27.5% (+0.6%) http://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations
Habebe rank	Sat Apr 24 15:57:46 2021 Rugian, My bad, I wonder if I had an old page, I swiped to refresh it.
Sam Adams rank	Sat Apr 24 20:37:36 2021 "The real world stats show the Oxford vaccine is as effective at reducing hospitalisations and spread as the others." Only if you ignore the SA strain. Dumb.
Rugian rank	Sat Apr 24 21:22:52 2021 April 24: % of US that has received at least 1 dose: 41.8% (+0.5%) % of US fully vaccinated: 28.0% (+0.5%) ----- 27 million Americans to go until 50% of the population has gotten at least one shot.
Sam Adams rank	Sat Apr 24 22:10:16 2021 Gonna need a fuckton of antivax sentiment to spring up asap in order to keep us away from that final 8%. Lol jergul.
Sam Adams rank	Sat Apr 24 22:13:46 2021 http://www...al-envy-and-anger-16125800.php The world is whining.
jergul rank	Sun Apr 25 00:14:36 2021 Final 22% Fixed!
Sam Adams rank	Sun Apr 25 05:42:26 2021 Anyone that gets number 1 is going to get number 2 jergul. Number 1 is the harbinger of your doom.
jergul rank	Sun Apr 25 08:30:43 2021 Jergul: 50% after January 1st 2022 Ruggy: 50% before January 1st 2022 Sammy: 50% before June 1st 2021 Fowyn: 50% before November 1st 2021 Habebe: 50% before July 1st 2021 State Department: 50% by May 19th 2021 Obam: 50% before May 15th 2021
Rugian rank	Sun Apr 25 22:19:28 2021 April 25: % of US that has received at least 1 dose: 42.2% (+0.4%) % of US fully vaccinated: 28.5% (+0.5%) ----- 26 million Americans to go until 50% of the population has gotten at least one shot.
Habebe rank	Sun Apr 25 23:08:03 2021 We may have overestimated desire to get the 2nd shot if youngot the first, I read almost 8% have not gotten the 2nd who did get the first, im not sure whatnthe window of time is on that. Regardless July first still seems to be a rather conservative estimate yet, by design.
Rugian rank	Sun Apr 25 23:10:23 2021 Yeah I saw that as well. No idea why anyone would get a 1st shot and then say "meh, fuck it" to the second.
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