Utopia Talk / Politics / Vaccinnes XI:The wrath of Hedorah

Habebe Member	Mon Jun 14 22:34:19 I think we were discussing the effectiveness of the various vaccinnes on the different variants.
Habebe Member	Mon Jun 14 22:39:37 Logo for WebMD Logo for WebMD CORONAVIRUS UPDATE CHECK YOUR SYMPTOMS FIND A DOCTOR FIND A DENTIST CONNECT TO CARE FIND LOWEST DRUG PRICES HEALTH A-Z DRUGS & SUPPLEMENTS LIVING HEALTHY FAMILY & PREGNANCY NEWS & EXPERTS MOBILE APPSSUBSCRIPTIONSSUBSCRIBE SEARCH SUBSCRIBE SEARCH Adult Vaccines COVID-19 Vaccine News WEBMD NEWS BRIEF Pfizer, AstraZeneca Shots Work Against Indian Variant By Ralph Ellis photo of vaccine May 25, 2021 -- A study found that two doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech or the Astra/Zeneca vaccine protect against the COVID-19 variant first detected in India -- as well as the variant first found in the United Kingdom. The study emphasized the need for two doses, saying one dose of the vaccines provided much less protection. The Public Health England study looked at health data from 1,054 people of different ages and ethnicities in April and May. The study said the Pfizer vaccine was 88% effective against the B.1.617.2 variant, first found in India, 2 weeks after the second dose. The Pfizer vaccine was 93% effective against the variant found in the U.K., known as B.1.1.7, two weeks after the second dose. Two doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine were 60% effective against the B.1.617.2 variant and 66% effective against B.1.1.7, the study said. But one dose didn’t work nearly as well, the study said. Three weeks after the first dose, both vaccines provided only 33% effectiveness against B.1.617.2 and 50% effectiveness against B.1.1.7. http://www...-vaccines-indian-variant-study
Sam Adams Member	Tue Jun 15 00:25:56 "Two doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine were 60% effective against the B.1.617.2 variant" Pretty bad. Bad news for the UK.
Seb Member	Tue Jun 15 01:57:34 Sam: We test like crazy. Most of the cases, by a large degree, are in under 40s, who are partially vaccinated. All under 40s get pfizer or moderna. So not such a big issue. Especially when it's 90+% effective at preventing hospitalisation. 60% effective with near 100% take up is also sufficient for herd immunity.
Seb Member	Tue Jun 15 02:21:08 http://twi...tatus/1404250363683905536?s=19 County level graphs showing correlation between republican / democrat vote split Vs vaccination rate. National Darwin award.
jergul large member	Tue Jun 15 06:34:05 Jergul: 50% after January 1st 2022 Ruggy: 50% before January 1st 2022 Sammy: 50% before June 1st 2021 - off 9% Fowyn: 50% before November 1st 2021 Habebe: 50% before July 1st 2021 State Department: 50% by May 19th 2021 - off 12.2% Obam: 50% before May 15th 2021 - off 13.8%
jergul large member	Tue Jun 15 06:36:29 "60% effective with near 100% take up is also sufficient for herd immunity" You have to be including natural immunity through infection for that to be true.
Habebe Member	Tue Jun 15 08:41:58 Seb, "National Darwin award." You cant nominate yourself, thats not how it works.
Sam Adams Member	Tue Jun 15 10:26:07 "So not such a big issue." Hopefully not, but the last time you said that 100,000 UK folks died. "Especially when it's 90+% effective at preventing hospitalisation." Hopefully. It might be the result of serious cases lagging behind initial cases. Your delta explosion is just starting. "National Darwin award." Yep. Antivaxxers are retards and should be shunned, but at the same time... the left is so fucking retarded, that distrust of their policies is so entrenched... its a mess of retardation for sure.
Seb Member	Tue Jun 15 11:03:28 Sam: "Hopefully not, but the last time you said that 100,000 UK folks died." Um no, I never said that under no circumstances should we never go into lockdown. I said the opposite. You can say it was stupid to invest in test and trace, but the most you can say there is that it was wasted money. Test and Trace was always in combination with lockdown if cases got above a certain level. The policy choice defaults back to lockdown vs open up. I'm on the lockdown side. You are on the "stay open at all costs" side. Your policy in the UK context amounts to "yeah, 100k dead, but hey the economy is open". That outcome is on you. "Hopefully. It might be the result of serious cases lagging behind initial cases. Your delta explosion is just starting." Not really, the delta explosion has been clear for about two to three weeks. We wouldn't be seeing the disparity in age groups we are seeing. "Yep. Antivaxxers are retards" Republican voters are retards. Fixed it for you. Antivaxxer isn't an axis on that diagram.
Seb Member	Tue Jun 15 11:03:42 How did you vote Sam? Remind me?
Habebe Member	Tue Jun 15 11:29:44 You do realize that the current VP is an antivaxxer.
Habebe Member	Tue Jun 15 12:05:09 While it is unfortunate that a sizeable amount of rural conservatives don't eant the vaccinne. The funny thing is Trump was the most pro vaccinne guy running. Did nothing but otaise vaccines made under operation warp speed and touted them repeatedly. On the contrary, Harris said she didn't trust vaccines and only under the pressure that if Fauci told her to get one that she would reluctantly do so. Notably the most anti vaccinne demographic in the US is democratic black women, coincidence?
Sam Adams Member	Tue Jun 15 12:07:05 I voted for biden and then the most moderate of either reps or dems in the local elections. Try to keep the extremisism and retardation to a minimum.
Sam Adams Member	Tue Jun 15 12:11:20 "You can say it was stupid to invest in test and trace, but the most you can say there is that it was wasted money." Wasted money, time, effort, public trust. Everyone with half a brain knew a year ago that only vaccines had any chance. By doing all your bullshit, you ultimately harmed the one thing that had a chance: confidence in vaccines.
Sam Adams Member	Tue Jun 15 12:14:09 Not to mention you developed a shitty vaccine. Maybe if your bureaucratic meddling had been instead spent on a better vaccine tech, you wouldnt be going backwards so quickly right now. LONDON — Anger bubbled over in Britain after Prime Minister Boris Johnson delayed England’s final stage of unlocking coronavirus restrictions, citing fears about rising cases of the highly transmissible delta variant http://www...nd-reacts-freedom-delay-covid/
Seb Member	Tue Jun 15 13:19:15 Sam: "Wasted money, time, effort, public trust. Everyone with half a brain knew a year ago that only vaccines had any chance. By doing all your bullshit, you ultimately harmed the one thing that had a chance: confidence in vaccines." Yeah, the UK's failed implementation of test and trace doesn't seem to have had any impact on public trust in vaccines. And on test and trace the strategy wasn't wrong. Others have done much better: important lesson, do not outsource lock stock and barrel, but my entire career has been saying that. The real question in the west ought to be how we let Apple and Google essentially block far more effective tech enabled track and trace element which could have allowed us to do a lot of things better. This could have been done anonymously and using homomorphic encryption services to yield both effective tracking without compromising privacy and also given policy makers important information about where spread events were occurring. This was essentially blocked simply because neither wanted to broadcast how they were already using location services to track individuals and serve high value contextual adds. "Not to mention you developed a shitty vaccine. Maybe if your bureaucratic meddling had been instead spent on a better vaccine tech, you wouldnt be going backwards so quickly right now." The UK has gone from no domestic vaccine manufacturing capacity to having three different technologies and on-shore supply chains; as well as developing one of the most widely used vaccines on the planet, and setting up global supply chains for that at cost. You can quibble about it not being as effective as the MRA vaccines - though it is in fact good enough and can be improved upon - but this is not a bad track record. The reason we are going backwards (or rather, should be, but are in fact merely going forwards more slowly) is attributable to one thing and one thing only. It is Boris Johnson's government making the same mistake it made three times in a row, to delay lock down to appease the no-lockdown idiots who still think there is a binary trade off between economy and lockdown. They made the mistake in March, where they delayed lockdown for three weeks after it had been clear we needed to do so, and when other countries in the west had begun lockdowns. That resulted in about half of the first 60k deaths. Then they delayed lockdown again at the end of Summer, when it was clearly needed in late September, but held on until late October. Then they continued with the Xmas re-opening only to admit this was a mistake and lockdown again in January. That resulted in a further 60k avoidable deaths. And then they refused to put India on the red list because Johnson wanted to avoid upsetting Modi and getting his photo-op in before the local elections. And so now we have Delta, and that is growing rapidly. It is the same mistake made four times over. The first one might, might just be forgivable. But lets be clear what the failure is: it is the failure to recognise that lockdowns are preferable to letting the disease spread. And that's the policy you lined up behind.
Seb Member	Tue Jun 15 13:22:19 Meanwhile, in America, vaccine hesitancy is worse than the UK. So this idea that test and trace has damaged the vaccine program is risible. We started vaccinating before any other big country in the world, are increasing coverage faster than you, are achieving higher uptake in each cohort, and delivering protection against severe disease at a population level faster. So, where is the tangible evidence of this reduced trust or efficacy of the vaccine program from test and trace?
Habebe Member	Tue Jun 15 13:33:05 Atleast the UK isn't as bad as the EU. Worse deployment and worse vaccinne hesitancy than the US, in an economic recession to boot. US/UK > EU.
Habebe Member	Tue Jun 15 13:44:44 General opposition to vaccines is fairly spread out.If you look at kindergarten vaccinne exemptions (Either from philosophical or religious grounds) oregon is number one, followed by states like Utah, Alaska maine and DC ( not a state) http://www...accine-exemptions-us-by-state/
CrownRoyal Member	Tue Jun 15 15:12:16 I’m going with Pfizer as my second shot, eligible tnis Friday. Since my first doze was AZ, I am given a choice of Ph or Moderna or AZ, same as everyone in Ontario who got 1st shot of AZ. I read a few articles, seems like AZ followed by mRNA 2nd shot is the way to go.
Seb Member	Tue Jun 15 15:50:55 Quite a bit of evidence suggesting mix and match of vectors improves efficacy.
Sam Adams Member	Tue Jun 15 17:12:11 "But lets be clear what the failure is: it is the failure to recognise that lockdowns are preferable to letting the disease spread." The worst possible failure is locking down to destroy the economy and still letting the disease spread. The UK is one of the few places retarded enough to do both lock down and still get ravaged by the disease.
Seb Member	Wed Jun 16 02:38:41 Sam: So follow that logic through. You've waited three weeks after the obvious point to lock down - are you arguing then that it makes sense to continue to avoid lockdown because you've baked some deaths, and should let it continue to grow?
Sam Adams Member	Wed Jun 16 11:41:27 I dont know what the exact best strategy is to minimize both the human and economic toll. Probably some combo of cancelling the largest gatherings, locking down old people, and having the young remain otherwise open. I do know what not to do: what you did.
Forwyn Member	Wed Jun 16 13:48:00 June 16: % of US that has received at least 1 dose: 52.7% % of US fully vaccinated: 44.1%
Seb Member	Thu Jun 17 06:32:07 Sam: "Probably some combo of cancelling the largest gatherings, locking down old people, and having the young remain otherwise open" Clearly not if vaccines are a possibility, as you are creating opportunities for variants to emerge by allowing a large reservoir of active infections. Best approach is lockdown to get to low numbers, sector based opening supported by a test and trace to keep R as low as possible, and local or national circuit breakers when numbers push above test and trace capacity. The UK's problem is test and trace was badly coordinated with local efforts, outsourced to the lowest bidder who didn't train staff and removed expensive clinical staff, and hampered initially by issues linking test results to individuals at scale. Other countries did better. But the lack of a functioning test and trace just meant that we had a lower threshold point at which local and national circuit breakers should have been engaged. The key problem that drove the deaths is Sam style "open to save the eocnonomy" - which did not save the economy because without clarity and trust that the disease was under control, nobody will go out and spend, hire or invest. There is no real trade off between lockdown and growth - people's behaviour - particularly those with the most spending power - is cautious and avoids expenditure whether formal lockdown policies are in place or not.
Sam Adams Member	Thu Jun 17 10:01:43 "Best approach is lockdown to get to low numbers, sector based opening supported by a test and trace" Youve been same this same retarded thing for a year and it hasnt worked anywhere. You would think you would learn.
Sam Adams Member	Thu Jun 17 10:30:00 Anyway, my county is 65% fully vaxxed now. With elite american mrna vaxes... not shitty AZ. Elite.
Habebe Member	Thu Jun 17 10:31:37 General lockdown dont seem to do much good. Targeted segregation of high-risk individuals, yes. Fair amount of data on this. Plus look at the EU, still stuck in a recession.Is it worth it?
Habebe Member	Thu Jun 17 10:46:50 FYI: The thread title is based off of the 11th Godzilla movie, I added the wrath of because it sounds better but it is staying accurate chronologically. X in space being from Jason X, a little confusing because ots the 11th movie, but meh, their amusing titles ( to me anyway)
hood Member	Thu Jun 17 10:50:36 "General lockdown dont seem to do much good." Not in the US where people are willfully ignorant and belligerently stupid and don't actually lock down. It does, however, actually work when properly carried out.
Habebe Member	Thu Jun 17 11:29:17 Hood, Perhaps, but I havn't seen any comparative data on that. Like in the US we can compare similar states and or counties.
Sam Adams Member	Thu Jun 17 11:38:21 "Not in the US where people are willfully ignorant and belligerently stupid and don't actually lock down. It does, however, actually work when properly carried out." Only asians have the discipline/authoritarianism do that.
hood Member	Thu Jun 17 11:40:37 Or, like, Australia.
Sam Adams Member	Thu Jun 17 11:49:26 Kindof... australia has no land borders and was able to prevent any significant initial spread. I doubt they could have recovered from a significant outbreak of covid or maintained such a stance with any kind of international travel. No euro nation could.
Seb Member	Thu Jun 17 11:54:36 Sam: "Only asians have the discipline/authoritarianism do that" That's simply not true. Every time the UK went into lockdown, disease stopped growing and case numbers dropped rapidly. The same is true in other countries. And there are plenty of examples of test and trace systems working effectively to keep R much lower than it would have been (this extending the period before lockdown becomes necessary again).
Habebe Member	Thu Jun 17 11:55:04 Does anyone have any links to data relating to comparitive lockdowns? Whether they seem to work or not.
hood Member	Thu Jun 17 11:59:16 the US has very few land borders (and mexico/canada still form a large island) and could have handled it fairly well. We obviously didn't. Lockdowns can be effective if done properly. We have that evidence. The breadth of idiot here clowns that notion, unfortunately.
Sam Adams Member	Thu Jun 17 12:02:00 "That's simply not true. Every time the UK went into lockdown, disease stopped growing and case numbers dropped rapidly." Your second wave lasted 6 months seb. Ahahaha imagine being this obtuse. Seb is the classic incompetent bureaucrat. "We failed in every way imaginable, we never gained the slightest scrap of knowledge, we fixed nothing, killed a couple million people, but that was sort of a success since i kept my job" Hang your fucking head in shame.
Habebe Member	Thu Jun 17 12:07:34 Hood, Where is the evidence?
Sam Adams Member	Thu Jun 17 12:07:58 "and could have handled it fairly well." Yes, if we had no mexicans, africans, or rednecks, plus competent government or a competent medical industry we could have done much better. Alas. With the country and medical tech levels we have, spread was inevitable.
Seb Member	Thu Jun 17 12:32:30 Sam: Yes, but that's precisely because it began in August and lockdown wasn't put back in place until 31 October (it actually didn't start until 5th Nov) and was lifted in early December. A new national lockdown was implemented 6 January. http://www...g=AOvVaw1w270JQv1v3Z0D4BVL-vT5 Now you can see daily new cases here. https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom Daily new cases fall from 25k on 15th Nov to 15k on 3rd Dec. Then they start rising again to 60k on the 6th Jan, and start falling again rapidly. Basically, the pivot points nearly exactly line up with lockdown policy changes, with a few days lag (behavioural change basically). Lockdown pushes R below 1, but if you let case numbers get high, it takes a long time to to get back to very low daily new cases. If you have 60k new cases, and r is 0.7, and the median infection time is 3 days, 3 days after the change in policy, it takes 30 days to get to below 2000 cases a day.
Seb Member	Thu Jun 17 12:33:40 Sam: Republican voters Sam. Not blacks and Mexicans. Republican voters.
Seb Member	Thu Jun 17 12:34:27 The issue in the end isn't really the administrative machine, the issue is political decision making. And the problem with this guy's is that they think like Sam.
Sam Adams Member	Thu Jun 17 13:40:09 "Republican voters Sam. Not blacks and Mexicans. Republican voters." You are never right about anything and this is no exception.
Forwyn Member	Thu Jun 17 14:25:25 June 17: % of US that has received at least 1 dose: 53% (+0.3%) % of US fully vaccinated: 44.5% (+0.4%)
Habebe Member	Thu Jun 17 20:27:54 Seb is just being racist.According to him if you disagree with someone politically its racist. But as for vaccinne hesitancy. A minority chunk of republican Voters are a sizeable issue. But the most anti vaccinne demographic is black females, which also happens to be the most democratic voting bloc , they vote about 95-99% democratic. Illegals are almost definitley not vaxed and who knows how many came through just this year, tens of thousands, maybe 100k.
Sam Adams Member	Fri Jun 18 00:13:13 "A study by Public Health England showed infection rates increasing across all age groups" Sebs like "its just the young!" Lol wrong, as usual.
Sam Adams Member	Fri Jun 18 00:17:09 Canada abandons astrazenca. I think CR said something about this, but figured id remind seb.
Habebe Member	Fri Jun 18 00:50:42 It was eithwr pillz or CR who was going to mix their AZ first shot with Pfizer for a 2nd shot.
hood Member	Fri Jun 18 00:57:12 pillz is an antivaxxer tard who actually thinks covid is a hoax. probably thinking of CR.
Habebe Member	Fri Jun 18 01:14:14 It was one of the Canucks.
Seb Member	Fri Jun 18 02:30:08 Habebe: "eb is just being racist.According to him if you disagree with someone politically its racist." Given I already explained that the definition of Racism doesn't mean that at all, I have to assume you have an IQ < 100. Sam: ""A study by Public Health England showed infection rates increasing across all age groups" Well think about it. That would be true even if everyone was vaccinated with Pfizer as it is 90-95% effective, 1 in 20 can get infected still, and with 5% of the population to play in, infection rates will rise. Just not very much. Which is what we are seeing. Rates are minutely higher in over 50s in absolute terms, the overwhelming bulk of the cases are in the young (>80%) under 50s almost all of whom are are not yet fully vaccinated. Your original point is whether use of AZ was a problem - the answer is still no. Either vaccine is 95%+ effective at preventing hospitalisation. If vaccine coverage was as high in the young with the same average efficacy as the older population, we wouldn't have a wave at all. I've posted the data that informed that study already so there's nothing new here.
Sam Adams Member	Fri Jun 18 09:32:16 Cases are skyrocketing and sebs screaming everythings fine. Again. Ohhhh the incomptence.
Seb Member	Fri Jun 18 10:29:39 Sam: No, I'm not saying everything is fine. I'm saying your belief that Astrazenica is a contributory problem here is bullshit. The wave is being driven in the young (all of whom are been vaccinated with Pfizer or moderna), there's far lower rates in the old despite use of az, and of those even fewer end up in hospital.
Sam Adams Member	Fri Jun 18 11:04:12 Everything you say is wrong, and contrary to published data. Hit yourself in the head with a sardine.
Seb Member	Fri Jun 18 14:20:10 I posted links to the data up thread. It confirms what I said.
Sam Adams Member	Fri Jun 18 14:38:26 Seb talking about data. Lol. Here is a sardine. You know what to do.
Habebe Member	Sat Jun 19 13:03:16 ""A study by Public Health England showed infection rates increasing across all age groups" Well think about it. That would be true even if everyone was vaccinated with Pfizer as it is 90-95% effective, 1 in 20 can get infected still, and with 5% of the population to play in, infection rates will rise." That doesn't make sense.Are you assuming infections were at/near zero? What is the timeline were referencing, dependant on that it could make sense.
Average Ameriacn Member	Sat Jun 19 14:39:56 Proof that AstralZencia is shit: http://www...eneca-vaccine-wont-on-broadway 'Springsteen on Broadway’ fans who've had AstraZeneca vaccine won't get into show Pfizer-BioNtech, Moderna Johnson & Johnson jabs will get you into The Boss' show
Seb Member	Sat Jun 19 19:08:26 Habebe: Delta can re-infect.
CrownRoyal Member	Wed Jun 23 07:34:23 I now have a somewhat exotic combdo of AZ 1st shot + Moderna 2nd
Daemon Member	Wed Jun 23 08:26:36 CR, in Germany some people have Astra + Biontech, because the rules for giving Astra have changed. I got my second dose today, both Biontech. Data for Germany 32,4 % fully vaccinated 51,6 % at least one dose Vaccination speed is still limited by supplies of vaccine. Too bad CureVac fucked up its vaccine: http://www...ated-new-mrna-vaccine-covid-19
Sam Adams Member	Wed Jun 23 11:22:31 Sounds like supplies in the eu and canada have reached reasonable levels. Next up:mexico, south america, and asia.
Sam Adams Member	Wed Jun 23 23:37:03 In todays news: UK case rates continue massive growth. Germany insists traveling from the UK to europe should be banned. US wont even donate our already purchased astra doses to poor countries. They are such trash it sounds like we are going to just throw them away. Lol seb.
Seb Member	Thu Jun 24 02:23:05 Sam: Delta is 20% of the US caseload now. Looks like you are going to go into yet another wave too.
Seb Member	Thu Jun 24 02:24:44 And looks like we have a delta plus variant with the spreadability of Delta and the vaccine resistance of South Africa emerging in India. I'm not sure when people like Sam are going to get the message: lockdowns and mass vaccination to reduce reservoir size is really important.
jergul large member	Thu Jun 24 08:13:53 Yikes. Delta+ might mean the total toll of those dying with covid might pass 1000 people in Norway.
Habebe Member	Thu Jun 24 08:24:14 The problem with mass lockdowns is that they have their own negative consequences as well. There is a reason Europe is still in recession.Obviously certain industries fared better than others though. In many places, suicides, drug use and mental health have all suffered. Plus many places with lockdowns had minimal benefits.
Sam Adams Member	Thu Jun 24 09:37:15 "and the vaccine resistance of South Africa emerging in India." Most vaxes work well against the SA strain. Just not yours. You were warned about this inevitability by me 6 months ago. "lockdowns and mass vaccination to reduce reservoir size is really important." Partial lockdowns and working vaccines, yes.
Sam Adams Member	Thu Jun 24 09:38:18 What you need to do seb, is give all your poor astra people a 3rd shot of either pfizer or moderna.
Habebe Member	Thu Jun 24 10:18:05 To clarify, no one of sane mind herenis advocating against vaccinne. As for lockdowns the argument is how the LD is executed. High risk individuals ( immuno compromised folks etc.) should be segregated from the general population. Those known to be infected should be quarantined. But just.blanket lockdowns is where debate arises.
Sam Adams Member	Thu Jun 24 10:46:58 Ya, its pretty clear lockdowns should not include young and healthy in lower population settings. Cancel the giant concert, sure. But the local bar with 10 regulars can probably stay open.
Seb Member	Thu Jun 24 11:22:36 Sam: The high effectiveness against Beta in pfizer is vs hospitalisation and symptoms. The low efficacy figures from AZ comes from a small study of 31 year olds (using testing rather than hospitalisation rates) and thus only statistically significant on asymptomatic cases. I.e. we are using two diametrically opposite measures. We don't actually know how effective AZ is at preventing symptomatic cases as AZ prevalence was too low in countries with established beta and accurate statistical reporting of hospitalisations. In any case you are missing the point, delta plus is a problem from a Pfizer perspective to: it prevents hospitalisation but not people getting infected. So you will be in the same position as the UK vs Delta (which AZ and Pfizer are both effective against on the measure that Pfizer is effective against delta) - a wave of infections without deaths and hospitalisations. However, the issue issue here is that this allows a large reservoir of people to be infected, and creates conditions for breading a better escape mutation. The lack of coordinated lockdown and travel restrictions early on is really hurting humanity here.
Habebe Member	Thu Jun 24 11:24:57 Why hasn't AZ been properly studied?
Seb Member	Thu Jun 24 11:24:58 Habebe/Sam: You are failing to consider all aspects. Firstly, the idea that you can ever isolate the vulnerable if the bulk of society is a red zone is falacious; secondly and more importantly, you create the conditions for more lethal/better spreading/ vaccine escape variants to emerge. These are more costly to society in the medium term than lockdown in the short term. The reality is a great deal of the social and economic issues of lockdown can be addressed with macro interventions.
jergul large member	Thu Jun 24 11:25:05 Funny how you think kids should get emergency use authorization vaccinations but should not be locked down.
Sam Adams Member	Thu Jun 24 11:51:39 "I.e. we are using two diametrically opposite measures." Wrong. In lab studies, pfizer saw a 6x reduction in antibody nutrilization against the SA strain. But pfizer creates so many antibodies to start with, it is still quite effective. AstraZeneca saw an 80x reduction, AND thats coming down from a less effective starting point too, making it nearly useless against the SA strain. "Why hasn't AZ been properly studied?" AstraZeneca itself was trying to hide effectiveness data to start with. Thats part of the reason they never got US approval: a clear lack of trustworthiness on the part of the manufacturer. Since then, independent data has filled in the gaps: the vaccine is effective against some strains but utterly useless against others. Seb, through his incompetence and desire to avoid looking bad, has tried to ignore these. Ironically this makes him look worse.
Sam Adams Member	Thu Jun 24 11:54:54 "Funny how you think kids should get emergency use authorization vaccinations but should not be locked down." Not funny at all. Simple math. Pfizer/moderna creates a major problem for what, one in 100k kids? Lockdowns remove what, 1/50th of their projected lives? The lockdowns are thus orders of magnitude more impactful than vax side effects.
jergul large member	Thu Jun 24 12:16:41 Sammy You are doing lockdown wrong if it is removing 2% of children's projected lives. Currently know vax side effects on the age group* Permanent authorization will be granted to safe vaccines when there is sufficient data.
Forwyn Member	Thu Jun 24 14:49:04 Lol, permanent authorization has been granted for hpv and chickenpox, both far more minor than Covid, and the vaccines had worse side effects, to include deaths of healthy teenagers Anyway June 24 % of US that has received at least 1 dose: 53.7% % of US fully vaccinated: 45.6%
Habebe Member	Thu Jun 24 16:47:31 HPV vaccinne in teenage girls is strange. My ex wife worked at a doctors office and it was apparently common place for fainting spells. They had to start having them wait for 45 minutes to make sure they were ok since it happened so frequently.
Habebe Member	Thu Jun 24 16:49:20 It looks as though I will fall short of my bad deadline by a bit, but this has been expected for a few weeks now as a strong likelihood. Pretty damn close though.
Nekran Member	Thu Jun 24 17:57:47 "June 24 % of US that has received at least 1 dose: 53.7% % of US fully vaccinated: 45.6%" Sheesh... we were lightyears behind some months ago and we're caught up now on the 1 dose percentage. I was quite envious of the vaccination speed out there, but the way this has been stalling is proper worrying when it comes to what percentage of the population you'll actually get fully vaccinated by the end of it. Hope it picks up again.
habebe Member	Thu Jun 24 18:03:22 Nekran, Many healthy people who had covid are not getting vaxxed. plus we have sub cultures of people who are just weirdos. Rednecks who think bill gates is putting microchips in them. Black women who think Trump poisoned the vaccinne. Are the biggest two.
Sam Adams Member	Thu Jun 24 18:36:37 Ya, now that vaccines are plentiful the main question will be population willingness and by virtue of having fewer africans and rednecks, you euros will pass the US average for sure. Fortunately the nicer parts of the US will end up with very high vax rates on par with europe so at least my region will be safe. Our idiots are unevenly distributed...
Habebe Member	Thu Jun 24 18:52:18 I wonder how many healthy people who were infected ooted out of the vaccinne.
Seb Member	Fri Jun 25 04:32:01 jergul: "Funny how you think kids should get emergency use authorization vaccinations but should not be locked down." Number of reasons: 1. Lockdown has a worse impact for kids 2. Kids in lockdown has a greater impact on parents To expand on overall framework, to the extent sectors of the economy can be kept open, schooling is the big one. The main reason for vaccinating kids is: 1. Despite your fears, it is actually safe - marketing authorisation is based on stricter controls on supply chain integrity and how/what you can sell a product to do - emergency authorisation still covers all the safety aspects of the drug itself. 2. Leaving kids as a circulating vector is a bad idea, and locking down kids means locking down the entire segment of the population with kids, which is a huge impact (effectively stops the economy anyway) - so waiting for vaccine producers to be in position for a full marketing authorisation is on balance a bad idea, if safety is assured. Sam: "In lab studies, pfizer saw a 6x reduction in antibody nutrilization against the SA strain. But pfizer creates so many antibodies to start with, it is still quite effective. AstraZeneca saw an 80x reduction, AND thats coming down from a less effective starting point too, making it nearly useless against the SA strain." "by a factor of 3 to 86" - Samstitics "pick the upper or lower bound of any confidence interval as you see fit".
jergul large member	Fri Jun 25 04:53:31 Seb The concerns are ethical. Throwing the primary ethical priciple of medicine out of the window (do no harm) so that children can protect adults is beyond questionable. Safety is not assured. It is relative and measured against the harm being infected would cause children. For measures that can be used following your logic, see how China contained its outbreaks. Its for the greater good after all.
Seb Member	Fri Jun 25 06:07:49 jergul: "Throwing the primary ethical principle of medicine out of the window (do no harm) so that children can protect adults is beyond questionable." Depends on whether there is any evidence of harm of the vaccine (comparatively little). In terms of harm: 1. We also know that lockdown involves harm, and infecting and killing your granny also harmful. So presumably lockdown cannot be recommended from a medical perspective (i.e. from a policy choice framework you are exploiting the equivalent of regulatory arbitrage). 2. In terms of medical harm from infection, it is not true that there is no harm to children from infection. It's is just low incidence and doesn't necessarily manifest in the same way; and there is some evidence of long term effects also. 3. In addition: allowing a large reservoir of disease to exist and breed may result in strains that do affect children. Unwise. 4. The potential to breed vaccine escape in children, and again, infecting your parents and other relatives with a lethal disease is generally considered harmful. Children also grow up. 5. There is ample precedent for vaccinating children with a vaccine that does not benefit the individual - HPV for cervical cancer. You are being hopelessly reductionist on this point. The same medical regulators that make these decisions on whether to recommend vaccination to which group and when and have always done so, are the ones ultimately recommending vaccination of Children.
Seb Member	Fri Jun 25 06:13:51 Also, to be explicit, you are actually making two points here: 1. Is it ethical and reasonable to vaccinate children based on the harms of the vaccine vs the harms of not vaccinating - which is what the regulators are doing and there is no real evidence they are applying different criteria than previously. 2. Is it *safe* to vaccinate children - given the drugs have not had full marketing authorisations. Point 1 is debatable, but independent advisory bodies, such as JCVI in the UK, that have the function of deciding this kind of question and do so regularly seem to find consistently in favour of vaccination. Point 2 - which you keep framing your dispute around - is a red herring. Emergency authorisation includes safety assessment, there is no basis for saying it would be more safe with a full marketing authorisation as the criteria on human safety are the same. And safety trials are being done on children before recommendations made, the drugs having cleared safety approval for proceeding to human trials on children, as any drug prescribed to children has to be.
jergul large member	Fri Jun 25 08:09:09 The harm of vaccinating children has not yet been established. Let me remind you that two drugs that were tested far more than any drug has been tested on children were later pulled from multiple markets due to health concerns. Emergency authorisation is exactly that. The ethics of using it on children are beyond questionable.
Seb Member	Fri Jun 25 08:46:28 jergul: "Let me remind you that two drugs that were tested far more than any drug has been tested on children were later pulled from multiple markets due to health concerns." This is what I mean by conflation. Why should the vaccines need to be tested to a higher level of human safety trials than any other drug that goes to market? For example, the side effects of the AZ vaccine would not prevent it getting an authorisation or cause it's authorisation to be withdrawn, because they are so rare (and would not have been picked up outside of the largest vaccination program ever). Your argument hinges around the idea that human safety trials are in some way less under emergency authorisation than that which would be required to place a drug on the market; or that dedicated safety trials for children wouldn't be done (they have been). "Emergency authorisation is exactly that" is a tautological phrase up there with "Brexit means Brexit". Let me elaborate for you: Emergency authorisation vs full marketing approval has absolutely no difference in human safety trial data; it relates purely to additional controls around supply chains, liability, and how the drug may be advertised. There is nothing more questionable about using a drug approved for human use under emergency authorisation on children than adults; and no difference in clinical safety for either compared to a drug authorised under a full marketing authorisation instead.
Sam Adams Member	Fri Jun 25 10:30:40 "by a factor of 3 to 86" Wrong. It was about 80. Why the fuck are you defending a vaccine that has been conclusively proven to be trash? The entire worlds scientific community has reached a consensus that AstraZeneca is trash. Get with the program. The hilarious part is you are defending this mistake all the while your country sees skyrocketing covid cases.
Sam Adams Member	Fri Jun 25 10:34:05 "The concerns are ethical." Translated: "the american covid vaxes are so fucking awesome i am resorted to this baseless nitpicking". What you should really be saying jergul: "Thank you america for saving the world again".
Seb Member	Fri Jun 25 10:45:07 Sam: I've got the paper from the only study you can be referring to in front of me. So, before I show you mine, you show me yours so we can pin you down for once: What is your source for a figure of about 80? "Why the fuck are you defending a vaccine that has been conclusively proven to be trash?" Because it hasn't - it provides a cost effective means of protecting people against death and limiting spread of many variants at a time when we have limited supply globally. And no, the worlds scientific community have decided no such thing. "The hilarious part is you are defending this mistake all the while your country sees skyrocketing covid cases." Yes, entirely concentrated in demographics that have overwhelmingly been vaccinated (if at all) by Pfizer. As you know because the stats have been provided. So how do you attribute this as having anything to do with AZ?
jergul large member	Fri Jun 25 10:52:09 You would not need to vaccinate children under emergency authorization if your vaccines or population was awesome sammy. Seb BS. The "safety" data was initial through less than 8k vaccination cases in Israel. AstraZenica and Jensen were far more vigourously tested before deployment showed flaws that had it pulled. Thats what happens when you rush things and do not use gold standard double-blind tests.
Sam Adams Member	Fri Jun 25 10:53:38 "Yes, entirely concentrated in demographics that have overwhelmingly been vaccinated (if at all) by Pfizer." Seb literally just makes things up as he goes along at this point.
Sam Adams Member	Fri Jun 25 10:54:26 Thank you USA for saving the world. Again.
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