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Utopia Talk / Politics / Crypto Journal
nhill
Member
Wed Jul 07 19:49:03
Started trading crypto again for fun. Not doing it to make money. Only using 1-2% max of my holdings (a 5-figure sum, so it's just real enough). Rest is in AAVE and yield farms. Using real money because paper trading is like playing blackjack with fake money. It's just not fun.

All my trades are documented and timestamped in this thread: http://uto...hread=88302&time=1625696725694

Performance
June 29th-July 7th

BTC: -7.02%
nhill: +5.6%

June 29th $BTC price: $35,587
July 7th $BTC price: $33,251

Currently have one open trade, this one on $ETH.

Bought 25% @ $2319
75% @ $2268
Avg price @ $2280

Going long on this trade. I had my stop loss at $2,250 but I took it off. Things are volatile right now.

May the odds be ever in our favor.
nhill
Member
Wed Jul 07 19:50:51
I initially targeted my scale at $2280, but it dipped violently. Oh well, better entry point. Now my average price is $2280, which I find ideal.

Until it's not. ;)
nhill
Member
Wed Jul 07 19:55:59
http://v3.aggr.trade/be0u

This is a fun site if you're into schadenfreude. The REKTS on the bottom right show people getting liquidated. That happens when a position moves against you while leveraged.

Say I deposit 0.1BTC and open a position buying 1 BTC. Then I'm on 100x leverage. Each tick that goes up I made 100x the money, each tick down I lose 100x the money. Therefore, after it goes down 1%, the exchange has to liquidate that 0.1BTC so they don't go in the negative.

In other words, you're watching a feed of people losing all their money gambling.

Like I said, schadenfreude.
nhill
Member
Wed Jul 07 19:56:57
^meant to type 0.01 BTC in the above example.

If I deposit 0.1 BTC and buy 1BTC I'm on 10X leverage. If BTC drops 10% then I'd get liquidated, in that scenario.
nhill
Member
Wed Jul 07 19:58:00
Why did I get interested in trading again?

Well the market is trading sideways. This makes it very difficult. I like difficulty.
nhill
Member
Wed Jul 07 19:59:59
Normally in a straight up or down market you can lose a bunch and make it up with one good call.

In a sideways market you have to be right >50% of the time and stay disciplined. Most my stop losses are set to small amounts, like 2-3%, and I pare my gains early. My best trade was 3.9%, which is pretty miniscule compared to the types of trades I made last year (many >30%).
nhill
Member
Wed Jul 07 20:04:23
For anyone new:

I don't invest in cryptocurrency. I use DeFi as my savings account and now am trading a bit of my savings for fun.

I have a robust IRAs and a robust normal portfolio that I manage on M1.

Unlike certain people on here, such as my #1 fan DuckBaby, I post all my receipts.

Here is my current portfolio as of 7/1/2021 (my Q3 portfolio designed to weather stagflation):
http://m1.finance/TXqW-nJ2yMYd
Habebe
Member
Wed Jul 07 20:05:14
Of course only the Germans have such a word.
nhill
Member
Wed Jul 07 20:06:13
Here is my 15 year time-horizon portfolio that I made for Habebe:
http://m1.finance/DZI0OE3q8yyg

We can check back up on this one in 15 years and see how well I did. It's what I would invest in if I wasn't allowed to make any tweaks for 15 years.
nhill
Member
Wed Jul 07 20:06:42
> Of course only the Germans have such a word.

I know, right. :D
Habebe
Member
Wed Jul 07 20:06:50
Sweet
nhill
Member
Thu Jul 08 01:32:51
Made two bad calls today. Closed my short too early and went long too early. Wasn’t seeing definitive volume either way, so I tried a Fibonacci retracement on ETH. Shucks. Should have stuck to the levels. I’m leaving the ETH long open for now, going to bed.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Thu Jul 08 06:20:45
I am so disappointed that after almost 20 years we have not received one investment advice from the Dukhat. Not ONE. And he supposedly retired because he was so great at making money.
Dukhat
Member
Thu Jul 08 09:14:57
lol. I literally spend 80+ hours a week analyzing the markets. Why the fuck would I share any of that knowledge with you fucktards? You haven't even done the homework to understand the basics about pricing assets. And it was easy to see that Bitcoin and all crypto was headed down after China cracked down on it. China's responsible for over 60% of the supply and a shit ton of the demand too due to all the desperate peasants throwing their life savings into the pyramid scheme.

I even gave you the best advice to avoid losing money which was not to listen to Nhil. So congrats for being dumbasses and listening to some obsessed idiot who made one lucky gamble.

I'm not doing your fucking homework for you.
nhill
Member
Thu Jul 08 09:30:38
> not to listen to Nhil.

Then you told people to invest in crypto before the crash. RIP.

> I literally spend 80+ hours a week analyzing the markets.

80+ hours a week down the drain. Pathetic. Another LARPer that makes claims but has no receipts.
Dukhat
Member
Thu Jul 08 09:35:19
LoL, all you do is make stuff up when you're called on your bullshit.

I literally said that I had bought some due to a friend's advice at the end of last year and had already sold off a large portion by the time of your first idiotic post around may.

You're such an obsessed piece of shit.
nhill
Member
Thu Jul 08 09:40:51
Triggered, again. Tells me all I need to know.

Timestamps and links all posted above. Nothing to make up when you're transparent.

Again, receipts. Grow a pair and show your own, my little puppet. All you do is talk shit on the sideline, and you're terrible at that.

Maybe give your "smart investment friends" your login?
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Thu Jul 08 11:21:21
”80+ hours”

Financially independent and working like a slave.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Thu Jul 08 11:37:08
But it was a trick question, you don’t have any advice to give. Who would think you would lurk in Nhills crypto threads though.
nhill
Member
Thu Jul 08 11:54:02
Duck Tales
http://i.imgur.com/BBcQNHN.png
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Thu Jul 08 11:57:41
Nhill

I think you were right about the trading, patience. It went down.

Also, I think I will make my trading on longer increment hours -> days, this is inherently more patient :) That means holding for longer, but that works for me since I believe in the asset long term, don't consider it negative that I at the end of the day have less USD, but more BTC (or whatever crypto).
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Thu Jul 08 11:58:43
http://i.imgur.com/BBcQNHN.png

lol dude, you can make that into an NFT.
nhill
Member
Thu Jul 08 12:15:53
> I think you were right about the trading, patience. It went down.

Yep, agreed. Made the right call on the levels but got spooked out by the volume. Overthinking things.

Booked a 0.6% profit shorting when it could have been a 5% profit if I did what I said and played it level to level.

OTOH, first week back into it and got a bit of alpha. Could be worse. Always be learnin'

> lol dude, you can make that into an NFT.

lmao
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Thu Jul 08 14:00:13
You know, every other finance guru or successful people, they write books and give talks and spread their accumulated knowledge, or they come to UP and make threads and spread their knowledge ;), but not do-your-own-homework-Dukhat. You stink of failure.

Nhill
I have been inspired by your M1 portfolio and rearranged our savings, makes sense the things you say. Thanks!
nhill
Member
Thu Jul 08 14:03:21
Sure thing!
nhill
Member
Fri Jul 09 08:38:39
Board was down last night. Added to my position at $2052, average price is now $2166. I’ll grab a screenshot proving it.
nhill
Member
Fri Jul 09 10:43:01
http://i.imgur.com/QWc6hOV.png

Here's the receipt. I'm in CDT, so you can check the price last night at 8:12 CDT and see that I bought $21,466.33 worth of Ethereum at a price of $2052.82.
nhill
Member
Fri Jul 09 11:38:47
Update:

Performance
June 29th-July 9th

BTC: -6%
nhill: +5.62%

Still have an open trade on $ETH. It's a bad one... only up 0.2% on a 2-day trade and it was down as much as -11% yesterday. Oops.

http://i.k..._2020-01-14_at_10.34.57_AM.jpg
nhill
Member
Fri Jul 09 11:41:16
Should have respected my stop loss, it was there for a reason. Could have turned this trade into a 5.6% win if I had left in my stop loss. Instead it's a 0.2% nothing burger.
nhill
Member
Fri Jul 09 18:59:07
Closing @ $2050.

Made a grand total of nothing and now it's the weekend.

Most likely won't make any moves on the weekend unless it goes up a lot. Then I'll short.
nhill
Member
Fri Jul 09 19:03:07
$2150 that is.
nhill
Member
Fri Jul 09 19:08:56
Also we closed with bullish volume, so I'd be willing to go long on a dump too.

I'm leaning bearish overall, I'd say a 65% chance of seeing sub 30K numbers at this point. 30% chance of it getting all the way down to 20K or even lower.

That's why I'd short if it bounced this weekend, but the Friday close being bullish is why I'd also buy the dip. Hope that makes sense to everyone.
nhill
Member
Fri Jul 09 19:12:57
Open @ $2319 (starter position, 25%)
Scaled @ $2268 (full position, 75%)
Dollar Cost Averaged @ $2050 (2x my normal position, so ~2% of my holdings)
Total Average Price @ $2166
Sold @ $2050
Profit @ -0.07%

Lost some dough on this one, but turning a profit of +5.53% so far from June 29th-July 9th.
nhill
Member
Fri Jul 09 19:13:34
Sold @ $2150 I mean. This was Ethereum, go ahead and cross-check the prices.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Fri Jul 09 19:18:38
Nice.
nhill
Member
Fri Jul 09 19:20:07
Worth noting that the S&P 500 is up 1.8% in the same time period (June 29th-July 9th).
nhill
Member
Fri Jul 09 19:23:32
nhill
Member
Fri Jul 09 19:24:15
Oops, accidentally clicked the reply button with an empty post as I was cross-referencing to make sure my numbers here were accurate.

> Nice.

Thank you sir.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Sat Jul 10 09:40:56
Barclays first and now Santander. It is from what I understand limited to the UK, but it doesn't seem to have had any effect on the market.
nhill
Member
Sat Jul 10 14:37:27
I think the general consensus is that people will find a way to buy if they want to buy.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Sat Jul 10 16:30:13
I support the calls for regulation, but this also serves as two case studies in why DeFi and crypto are needed.
nhill
Member
Sat Jul 10 17:38:22
Yup. Nice thing about DeFi is, for most projects, no single corporation can decide how you use the system. Even the corporation that created the system needs community consensus to implement a change. The code executes.

That’s another reason why I like Liquity. They even removed the ability for it to ever change.

Liquity will work the same way it does now until the end of time. I’m a big fan of immutability.
nhill
Member
Sun Jul 11 17:34:21
Short @ 34389
nhill
Member
Sun Jul 11 17:44:04
Stop Loss @ 35300
nhill
Member
Mon Jul 12 07:14:27
Covering @ 33583
nhill
Member
Mon Jul 12 07:16:27
Open @ 34389
Close @ 33583
Profit @ +2.4%

Another win for the home team.
nhill
Member
Mon Jul 12 07:22:43
Happy to short again on a bounce today if we get it.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Mon Jul 12 08:33:50
Ok but first let it drop to 32-31.
nhill
Member
Mon Jul 12 09:58:02
Haha. Sure thing. Been busy today, it did bounce briefly above 33600, but I missed it.

Oh well. I don't underestimate the compound effect of these 2-3% wins. :) You can turn $10,000 into around $300,000 by booking a 1% trade each day.
nhill
Member
Mon Jul 12 09:58:42
Each day for a year, I mean. 365 days of 1% wins will turn $10,000 into $300,000.
nhill
Member
Mon Jul 12 10:21:39
Shorting again at $33468
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Mon Jul 12 10:28:22
My uncle has a friend, who allegedly has a so call BTC whale as business partner, they trade. He has also invested some money with them for day trading, I am wondering if I should as well.
nhill
Member
Mon Jul 12 10:41:02
Depends on how much you trust them and how much better they can do it than you. Plus fees, taxes, etc.
nhill
Member
Mon Jul 12 10:42:56
Whales (those with over 1,000 BTC is the common definition) have advantages and disadvantages. They have enough money to move the price which can change sentiment. But it can also cause slippage where there's not enough liquidity to fill a trade.

I'm not super familiar with it.
nhill
Member
Mon Jul 12 10:50:44
At the very least, I would ask them questions about how they handle slippage and their trading process.
nhill
Member
Mon Jul 12 10:51:49
But overall, the "uncle's friend investing" type of stories reek of a scam and loss of money IMO.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Mon Jul 12 11:09:20
All concerns I have voiced, but they have a legit company and this friend is actually someone our family knows from way back. He is the son of my fathers (my uncle is on my mothers side) old friend, we knew them in Iran. He is already doing it for his parents as well and my uncle would most likely kill him if he scamed him ;), they are very close friends.

With all that said, I can still see how such an operations can go down in flames and bring friends and family down with it. That’s me though, there is no plan great enough where I can not imagine it turn into an ash pile.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Mon Jul 12 11:10:25
As for myself, I still have a day job, but now I am off until the end of august and trying to teach myself. Sed how that goes :)
nhill
Member
Mon Jul 12 11:48:42
Close @ 33147
nhill
Member
Mon Jul 12 11:50:55
Open @ 33468
Close @ 33147
Profit @ +1%

Still waiting for a real bounce I can short. :|

Nim

Sounds like you're thinking about it properly, then. :)
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Mon Jul 12 14:31:49
Where is the bottom, buy now or be patient, that is the question.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Mon Jul 12 14:34:46
I don't know the jargon, but that is the 4th time the price hits the moving average and drops.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Mon Jul 12 14:35:41
on the 15 min timer that is.
nhill
Member
Mon Jul 12 14:57:08
Nim

That’s a great question, and is why I play things level to level with a probability bias. It helps guide the answer in a more profitable way. It’s my system, and it works well for me. There are people that have success with other systems. The key is finding one that suits you and your psychology.

I’ll go more in depth later, coding right now.
nhill
Member
Mon Jul 12 15:10:38
Long @ 32684
nhill
Member
Mon Jul 12 15:11:38
You got me staring at the charts, how dare you. So many distractions. Now I'm going back to coding.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Mon Jul 12 15:18:00
:)
nhill
Member
Mon Jul 12 16:50:00
Close @ 32952

Not seeing the right volume
nhill
Member
Mon Jul 12 16:55:13
Open @ 32684
Close @ 32952
Profit @ +0.8%
nhill
Member
Mon Jul 12 16:57:40
Performance
June 29th-July 12th

BTC: -7.9%
nhill: +9.73%

Starting to really get some alpha here.
nhill
Member
Mon Jul 12 17:49:08
Shorting @ 33063

Looks like a double top just popped.
nhill
Member
Mon Jul 12 18:06:58
Putting a tight stop of 33147 on this one because we are getting dangerously close to the bottom of the range.
nhill
Member
Mon Jul 12 18:22:36
Exit @ 33130
nhill
Member
Mon Jul 12 18:24:11
Open @ 33063
Close @ 33130
Profit @ -0.2%

Always try to keep your wins bigger than your losses :)
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Mon Jul 12 18:25:37
in at 32730
out at 33050
nhill
Member
Mon Jul 12 18:27:47
long? nice
nhill
Member
Mon Jul 12 21:10:50
Short @ $33196

Actually thought this order didn't go through. Will have to post a receipt tonight as I made it 10 minutes ago so if you check now I'd be lying ;)
nhill
Member
Mon Jul 12 21:14:31
Closing @ $33093

Going to watch a show with the kids. Just a little scalp.
nhill
Member
Mon Jul 12 21:16:02
Open @ 33196
Close @ 33093
Profit @ +0.3%

Revenge traded to balance out my last loss :P
nhill
Member
Mon Jul 12 21:20:07
Receipt: http://i.imgur.com/c37nnrS.png
nhill
Member
Mon Jul 12 21:21:06
Borrowed the $WBTC from AAVE, sold it short, then rebought it back cheaper and paid back my debt. Shorting the manual way ;)
nhill
Member
Mon Jul 12 22:26:19
Hmm I didn’t get as much profit as I expected, because of the 0.116% fee for using the DEX. Will have to deduct that from each trade retroactively to determine profitability.

Maybe I’ll start trading on Binance. It’s only risking 1-2% of my crypto. Looks like it charges 0.075% for spot and even less for futures. Something to think about, but for now I’ll have to stop doing these mini scalps.
nhill
Member
Mon Jul 12 22:29:48
I have to deduct 2.552% from my profit margins for fees.

I'm +7.28% counting fees. +9.73% on raw performance.
nhill
Member
Tue Jul 13 00:57:08
Longing $ETH here at $1980
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Tue Jul 13 04:42:56
Forgott to say it, but yea long. I followed you and waited a bit longer :)
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Tue Jul 13 04:45:52
I have been doing the trading on binance.
nhill
Member
Tue Jul 13 09:13:19
Cool cool. I'm going to wait on this one a while, even if it dips sub $1700 like I think it could. I'll dollar cost average it if that happens.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Tue Jul 13 13:09:21
Dude, if it hits 1700, I am buying more regardless :D
OsamaIsDaWorstPresid
Member
Tue Jul 13 13:59:06
20k heer we cum and eth to 800 wit it rofl enjoy ur 1700
nhill
Member
Tue Jul 13 15:07:30
We can only hope. Clearly it’ll bounce back up to the range if you have half a brain.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Tue Jul 13 15:26:50
800 and I am betting the barn, the house, the whole farm.
nhill
Member
Tue Jul 13 18:43:29
Osama only comes outta the woodwork just long enough to be proven wrong and look like an idiot again. Then he'll disappear until the next red day. Similar to LARPing idiots like Dukhat.

Ethereum will never be under $1200 again. Sorry bub, you missed your opportunity. Just weren't smart enough to see the trends.

Bitcoin can definitely go under 20K (about 30% chance IMO), but we'll never see it under 15K again.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Tue Jul 13 19:10:37
He probably is Dukhat.
nhill
Member
Tue Jul 13 19:12:17
Fair point.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Tue Jul 13 19:12:57
Nhill
From what I have been seeing the past few weeks ETH is more volatile than BTC. Is it understood why that is?
nhill
Member
Tue Jul 13 19:18:17
Yes, that same reason why Dow Jones Industrial Average tends to be less volatile than the S&P 500.

Bitcoin is the strongest asset in bear markets because it has greater institutional support.

That's why I generally only trade $BTC and showed you that chart when I was asked why I don't trade $ETH right now.

I want to accumulate Ethereum at the lowest price possible, but trade Bitcoin to get there.

http://i.imgur.com/470O4B0.png

Bitcoin is for bears, Ethereum is for bulls.
nhill
Member
Tue Jul 13 19:19:19
Right now we are in a bear market. I will trade $BTC in the range, and keep trying to snipe Ethereum at the low end of the range.

$MATIC is also a steal right now.
nhill
Member
Tue Jul 13 19:20:16
Think of it this way.

Bitcoin == Dow Jones Industrial Average
Ethereum == Nasdaq 100 / S&P 500
All Other Coins == Individual Stocks

This is the proper mindset to view the ecosystem.
nhill
Member
Tue Jul 13 19:22:00
If you want to go deeper, and look at the root the other reason is because EIP-1599 is around the corner soon.

Ethereum is mutable by design. It changes frequently.

Bitcoin doesn't change. It'll be more stable. It's not a bad investment, necessarily. But if you look at the performance difference between $QQQ and $DIA over the years, you'll see why I don't own any.
Rugian
Member
Tue Jul 13 19:22:37
I viewed your girlfriend's ecosystem
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