Utopia Talk / Politics / Crypto Journal

nhill rank	Thu Jul 08 02:49:03 2021 Started trading crypto again for fun. Not doing it to make money. Only using 1-2% max of my holdings (a 5-figure sum, so it's just real enough). Rest is in AAVE and yield farms. Using real money because paper trading is like playing blackjack with fake money. It's just not fun. All my trades are documented and timestamped in this thread: http://uto...hread=88302&time=1625696725694 Performance June 29th-July 7th BTC: -7.02% nhill: +5.6% June 29th $BTC price: $35,587 July 7th $BTC price: $33,251 Currently have one open trade, this one on $ETH. Bought 25% @ $2319 75% @ $2268 Avg price @ $2280 Going long on this trade. I had my stop loss at $2,250 but I took it off. Things are volatile right now. May the odds be ever in our favor.
nhill rank	Thu Jul 08 02:50:51 2021 I initially targeted my scale at $2280, but it dipped violently. Oh well, better entry point. Now my average price is $2280, which I find ideal. Until it's not. ;)
nhill rank	Thu Jul 08 02:55:59 2021 http://v3.aggr.trade/be0u This is a fun site if you're into schadenfreude. The REKTS on the bottom right show people getting liquidated. That happens when a position moves against you while leveraged. Say I deposit 0.1BTC and open a position buying 1 BTC. Then I'm on 100x leverage. Each tick that goes up I made 100x the money, each tick down I lose 100x the money. Therefore, after it goes down 1%, the exchange has to liquidate that 0.1BTC so they don't go in the negative. In other words, you're watching a feed of people losing all their money gambling. Like I said, schadenfreude.
nhill rank	Thu Jul 08 02:56:57 2021 ^meant to type 0.01 BTC in the above example. If I deposit 0.1 BTC and buy 1BTC I'm on 10X leverage. If BTC drops 10% then I'd get liquidated, in that scenario.
nhill rank	Thu Jul 08 02:58:00 2021 Why did I get interested in trading again? Well the market is trading sideways. This makes it very difficult. I like difficulty.
nhill rank	Thu Jul 08 02:59:59 2021 Normally in a straight up or down market you can lose a bunch and make it up with one good call. In a sideways market you have to be right >50% of the time and stay disciplined. Most my stop losses are set to small amounts, like 2-3%, and I pare my gains early. My best trade was 3.9%, which is pretty miniscule compared to the types of trades I made last year (many >30%).
nhill rank	Thu Jul 08 03:04:23 2021 For anyone new: I don't invest in cryptocurrency. I use DeFi as my savings account and now am trading a bit of my savings for fun. I have a robust IRAs and a robust normal portfolio that I manage on M1. Unlike certain people on here, such as my #1 fan DuckBaby, I post all my receipts. Here is my current portfolio as of 7/1/2021 (my Q3 portfolio designed to weather stagflation): http://m1.finance/TXqW-nJ2yMYd
Habebe rank	Thu Jul 08 03:05:14 2021 Of course only the Germans have such a word.
nhill rank	Thu Jul 08 03:06:13 2021 Here is my 15 year time-horizon portfolio that I made for Habebe: http://m1.finance/DZI0OE3q8yyg We can check back up on this one in 15 years and see how well I did. It's what I would invest in if I wasn't allowed to make any tweaks for 15 years.
nhill rank	Thu Jul 08 03:06:42 2021 > Of course only the Germans have such a word. I know, right. :D
Habebe rank	Thu Jul 08 03:06:50 2021 Sweet
nhill rank	Thu Jul 08 08:32:51 2021 Made two bad calls today. Closed my short too early and went long too early. Wasn’t seeing definitive volume either way, so I tried a Fibonacci retracement on ETH. Shucks. Should have stuck to the levels. I’m leaving the ETH long open for now, going to bed.
Nimatzo rank	Thu Jul 08 13:20:45 2021 I am so disappointed that after almost 20 years we have not received one investment advice from the Dukhat. Not ONE. And he supposedly retired because he was so great at making money.
Dukhat rank	Thu Jul 08 16:14:57 2021 lol. I literally spend 80+ hours a week analyzing the markets. Why the fuck would I share any of that knowledge with you fucktards? You haven't even done the homework to understand the basics about pricing assets. And it was easy to see that Bitcoin and all crypto was headed down after China cracked down on it. China's responsible for over 60% of the supply and a shit ton of the demand too due to all the desperate peasants throwing their life savings into the pyramid scheme. I even gave you the best advice to avoid losing money which was not to listen to Nhil. So congrats for being dumbasses and listening to some obsessed idiot who made one lucky gamble. I'm not doing your fucking homework for you.
nhill rank	Thu Jul 08 16:30:38 2021 > not to listen to Nhil. Then you told people to invest in crypto before the crash. RIP. > I literally spend 80+ hours a week analyzing the markets. 80+ hours a week down the drain. Pathetic. Another LARPer that makes claims but has no receipts.
Dukhat rank	Thu Jul 08 16:35:19 2021 LoL, all you do is make stuff up when you're called on your bullshit. I literally said that I had bought some due to a friend's advice at the end of last year and had already sold off a large portion by the time of your first idiotic post around may. You're such an obsessed piece of shit.
nhill rank	Thu Jul 08 16:40:51 2021 Triggered, again. Tells me all I need to know. Timestamps and links all posted above. Nothing to make up when you're transparent. Again, receipts. Grow a pair and show your own, my little puppet. All you do is talk shit on the sideline, and you're terrible at that. Maybe give your "smart investment friends" your login?
Nimatzo rank	Thu Jul 08 18:21:21 2021 ”80+ hours” Financially independent and working like a slave.
Nimatzo rank	Thu Jul 08 18:37:08 2021 But it was a trick question, you don’t have any advice to give. Who would think you would lurk in Nhills crypto threads though.
nhill rank	Thu Jul 08 18:54:02 2021 Duck Tales http://i.imgur.com/BBcQNHN.png
Nimatzo rank	Thu Jul 08 18:57:41 2021 Nhill I think you were right about the trading, patience. It went down. Also, I think I will make my trading on longer increment hours -> days, this is inherently more patient :) That means holding for longer, but that works for me since I believe in the asset long term, don't consider it negative that I at the end of the day have less USD, but more BTC (or whatever crypto).
Nimatzo rank	Thu Jul 08 18:58:43 2021 http://i.imgur.com/BBcQNHN.png lol dude, you can make that into an NFT.
nhill rank	Thu Jul 08 19:15:53 2021 > I think you were right about the trading, patience. It went down. Yep, agreed. Made the right call on the levels but got spooked out by the volume. Overthinking things. Booked a 0.6% profit shorting when it could have been a 5% profit if I did what I said and played it level to level. OTOH, first week back into it and got a bit of alpha. Could be worse. Always be learnin' > lol dude, you can make that into an NFT. lmao
Nimatzo rank	Thu Jul 08 21:00:13 2021 You know, every other finance guru or successful people, they write books and give talks and spread their accumulated knowledge, or they come to UP and make threads and spread their knowledge ;), but not do-your-own-homework-Dukhat. You stink of failure. Nhill I have been inspired by your M1 portfolio and rearranged our savings, makes sense the things you say. Thanks!
nhill rank	Thu Jul 08 21:03:21 2021 Sure thing!
nhill rank	Fri Jul 09 15:38:39 2021 Board was down last night. Added to my position at $2052, average price is now $2166. I’ll grab a screenshot proving it.
nhill rank	Fri Jul 09 17:43:01 2021 http://i.imgur.com/QWc6hOV.png Here's the receipt. I'm in CDT, so you can check the price last night at 8:12 CDT and see that I bought $21,466.33 worth of Ethereum at a price of $2052.82.
nhill rank	Fri Jul 09 18:38:47 2021 Update: Performance June 29th-July 9th BTC: -6% nhill: +5.62% Still have an open trade on $ETH. It's a bad one... only up 0.2% on a 2-day trade and it was down as much as -11% yesterday. Oops. http://i.k..._2020-01-14_at_10.34.57_AM.jpg
nhill rank	Fri Jul 09 18:41:16 2021 Should have respected my stop loss, it was there for a reason. Could have turned this trade into a 5.6% win if I had left in my stop loss. Instead it's a 0.2% nothing burger.
nhill rank	Sat Jul 10 01:59:07 2021 Closing @ $2050. Made a grand total of nothing and now it's the weekend. Most likely won't make any moves on the weekend unless it goes up a lot. Then I'll short.
nhill rank	Sat Jul 10 02:03:07 2021 $2150 that is.
nhill rank	Sat Jul 10 02:08:56 2021 Also we closed with bullish volume, so I'd be willing to go long on a dump too. I'm leaning bearish overall, I'd say a 65% chance of seeing sub 30K numbers at this point. 30% chance of it getting all the way down to 20K or even lower. That's why I'd short if it bounced this weekend, but the Friday close being bullish is why I'd also buy the dip. Hope that makes sense to everyone.
nhill rank	Sat Jul 10 02:12:57 2021 Open @ $2319 (starter position, 25%) Scaled @ $2268 (full position, 75%) Dollar Cost Averaged @ $2050 (2x my normal position, so ~2% of my holdings) Total Average Price @ $2166 Sold @ $2050 Profit @ -0.07% Lost some dough on this one, but turning a profit of +5.53% so far from June 29th-July 9th.
nhill rank	Sat Jul 10 02:13:34 2021 Sold @ $2150 I mean. This was Ethereum, go ahead and cross-check the prices.
Nimatzo rank	Sat Jul 10 02:18:38 2021 Nice.
nhill rank	Sat Jul 10 02:20:07 2021 Worth noting that the S&P 500 is up 1.8% in the same time period (June 29th-July 9th).
nhill rank	Sat Jul 10 02:23:32 2021
nhill rank	Sat Jul 10 02:24:15 2021 Oops, accidentally clicked the reply button with an empty post as I was cross-referencing to make sure my numbers here were accurate. > Nice. Thank you sir.
Nimatzo rank	Sat Jul 10 16:40:56 2021 Barclays first and now Santander. It is from what I understand limited to the UK, but it doesn't seem to have had any effect on the market.
nhill rank	Sat Jul 10 21:37:27 2021 I think the general consensus is that people will find a way to buy if they want to buy.
Nimatzo rank	Sat Jul 10 23:30:13 2021 I support the calls for regulation, but this also serves as two case studies in why DeFi and crypto are needed.
nhill rank	Sun Jul 11 00:38:22 2021 Yup. Nice thing about DeFi is, for most projects, no single corporation can decide how you use the system. Even the corporation that created the system needs community consensus to implement a change. The code executes. That’s another reason why I like Liquity. They even removed the ability for it to ever change. Liquity will work the same way it does now until the end of time. I’m a big fan of immutability.
nhill rank	Mon Jul 12 00:34:21 2021 Short @ 34389
nhill rank	Mon Jul 12 00:44:04 2021 Stop Loss @ 35300
nhill rank	Mon Jul 12 14:14:27 2021 Covering @ 33583
nhill rank	Mon Jul 12 14:16:27 2021 Open @ 34389 Close @ 33583 Profit @ +2.4% Another win for the home team.
nhill rank	Mon Jul 12 14:22:43 2021 Happy to short again on a bounce today if we get it.
Nimatzo rank	Mon Jul 12 15:33:50 2021 Ok but first let it drop to 32-31.
nhill rank	Mon Jul 12 16:58:02 2021 Haha. Sure thing. Been busy today, it did bounce briefly above 33600, but I missed it. Oh well. I don't underestimate the compound effect of these 2-3% wins. :) You can turn $10,000 into around $300,000 by booking a 1% trade each day.
nhill rank	Mon Jul 12 16:58:42 2021 Each day for a year, I mean. 365 days of 1% wins will turn $10,000 into $300,000.
nhill rank	Mon Jul 12 17:21:39 2021 Shorting again at $33468
Nimatzo rank	Mon Jul 12 17:28:22 2021 My uncle has a friend, who allegedly has a so call BTC whale as business partner, they trade. He has also invested some money with them for day trading, I am wondering if I should as well.
nhill rank	Mon Jul 12 17:41:02 2021 Depends on how much you trust them and how much better they can do it than you. Plus fees, taxes, etc.
nhill rank	Mon Jul 12 17:42:56 2021 Whales (those with over 1,000 BTC is the common definition) have advantages and disadvantages. They have enough money to move the price which can change sentiment. But it can also cause slippage where there's not enough liquidity to fill a trade. I'm not super familiar with it.
nhill rank	Mon Jul 12 17:50:44 2021 At the very least, I would ask them questions about how they handle slippage and their trading process.
nhill rank	Mon Jul 12 17:51:49 2021 But overall, the "uncle's friend investing" type of stories reek of a scam and loss of money IMO.
Nimatzo rank	Mon Jul 12 18:09:20 2021 All concerns I have voiced, but they have a legit company and this friend is actually someone our family knows from way back. He is the son of my fathers (my uncle is on my mothers side) old friend, we knew them in Iran. He is already doing it for his parents as well and my uncle would most likely kill him if he scamed him ;), they are very close friends. With all that said, I can still see how such an operations can go down in flames and bring friends and family down with it. That’s me though, there is no plan great enough where I can not imagine it turn into an ash pile.
Nimatzo rank	Mon Jul 12 18:10:25 2021 As for myself, I still have a day job, but now I am off until the end of august and trying to teach myself. Sed how that goes :)
nhill rank	Mon Jul 12 18:48:42 2021 Close @ 33147
nhill rank	Mon Jul 12 18:50:55 2021 Open @ 33468 Close @ 33147 Profit @ +1% Still waiting for a real bounce I can short. :| Nim Sounds like you're thinking about it properly, then. :)
Nimatzo rank	Mon Jul 12 21:31:49 2021 Where is the bottom, buy now or be patient, that is the question.
Nimatzo rank	Mon Jul 12 21:34:46 2021 I don't know the jargon, but that is the 4th time the price hits the moving average and drops.
Nimatzo rank	Mon Jul 12 21:35:41 2021 on the 15 min timer that is.
nhill rank	Mon Jul 12 21:57:08 2021 Nim That’s a great question, and is why I play things level to level with a probability bias. It helps guide the answer in a more profitable way. It’s my system, and it works well for me. There are people that have success with other systems. The key is finding one that suits you and your psychology. I’ll go more in depth later, coding right now.
nhill rank	Mon Jul 12 22:10:38 2021 Long @ 32684
nhill rank	Mon Jul 12 22:11:38 2021 You got me staring at the charts, how dare you. So many distractions. Now I'm going back to coding.
Nimatzo rank	Mon Jul 12 22:18:00 2021 :)
nhill rank	Mon Jul 12 23:50:00 2021 Close @ 32952 Not seeing the right volume
nhill rank	Mon Jul 12 23:55:13 2021 Open @ 32684 Close @ 32952 Profit @ +0.8%
nhill rank	Mon Jul 12 23:57:40 2021 Performance June 29th-July 12th BTC: -7.9% nhill: +9.73% Starting to really get some alpha here.
nhill rank	Tue Jul 13 00:49:08 2021 Shorting @ 33063 Looks like a double top just popped.
nhill rank	Tue Jul 13 01:06:58 2021 Putting a tight stop of 33147 on this one because we are getting dangerously close to the bottom of the range.
nhill rank	Tue Jul 13 01:22:36 2021 Exit @ 33130
nhill rank	Tue Jul 13 01:24:11 2021 Open @ 33063 Close @ 33130 Profit @ -0.2% Always try to keep your wins bigger than your losses :)
Nimatzo rank	Tue Jul 13 01:25:37 2021 in at 32730 out at 33050
nhill rank	Tue Jul 13 01:27:47 2021 long? nice
nhill rank	Tue Jul 13 04:10:50 2021 Short @ $33196 Actually thought this order didn't go through. Will have to post a receipt tonight as I made it 10 minutes ago so if you check now I'd be lying ;)
nhill rank	Tue Jul 13 04:14:31 2021 Closing @ $33093 Going to watch a show with the kids. Just a little scalp.
nhill rank	Tue Jul 13 04:16:02 2021 Open @ 33196 Close @ 33093 Profit @ +0.3% Revenge traded to balance out my last loss :P
nhill rank	Tue Jul 13 04:20:07 2021 Receipt: http://i.imgur.com/c37nnrS.png
nhill rank	Tue Jul 13 04:21:06 2021 Borrowed the $WBTC from AAVE, sold it short, then rebought it back cheaper and paid back my debt. Shorting the manual way ;)
nhill rank	Tue Jul 13 05:26:19 2021 Hmm I didn’t get as much profit as I expected, because of the 0.116% fee for using the DEX. Will have to deduct that from each trade retroactively to determine profitability. Maybe I’ll start trading on Binance. It’s only risking 1-2% of my crypto. Looks like it charges 0.075% for spot and even less for futures. Something to think about, but for now I’ll have to stop doing these mini scalps.
nhill rank	Tue Jul 13 05:29:48 2021 I have to deduct 2.552% from my profit margins for fees. I'm +7.28% counting fees. +9.73% on raw performance.
nhill rank	Tue Jul 13 07:57:08 2021 Longing $ETH here at $1980
Nimatzo rank	Tue Jul 13 11:42:56 2021 Forgott to say it, but yea long. I followed you and waited a bit longer :)
Nimatzo rank	Tue Jul 13 11:45:52 2021 I have been doing the trading on binance.
nhill rank	Tue Jul 13 16:13:19 2021 Cool cool. I'm going to wait on this one a while, even if it dips sub $1700 like I think it could. I'll dollar cost average it if that happens.
Nimatzo rank	Tue Jul 13 20:09:21 2021 Dude, if it hits 1700, I am buying more regardless :D
OsamaIsDaWorstPresid rank	Tue Jul 13 20:59:06 2021 20k heer we cum and eth to 800 wit it rofl enjoy ur 1700
nhill rank	Tue Jul 13 22:07:30 2021 We can only hope. Clearly it’ll bounce back up to the range if you have half a brain.
Nimatzo rank	Tue Jul 13 22:26:50 2021 800 and I am betting the barn, the house, the whole farm.
nhill rank	Wed Jul 14 01:43:29 2021 Osama only comes outta the woodwork just long enough to be proven wrong and look like an idiot again. Then he'll disappear until the next red day. Similar to LARPing idiots like Dukhat. Ethereum will never be under $1200 again. Sorry bub, you missed your opportunity. Just weren't smart enough to see the trends. Bitcoin can definitely go under 20K (about 30% chance IMO), but we'll never see it under 15K again.
Nimatzo rank	Wed Jul 14 02:10:37 2021 He probably is Dukhat.
nhill rank	Wed Jul 14 02:12:17 2021 Fair point.
Nimatzo rank	Wed Jul 14 02:12:57 2021 Nhill From what I have been seeing the past few weeks ETH is more volatile than BTC. Is it understood why that is?
nhill rank	Wed Jul 14 02:18:17 2021 Yes, that same reason why Dow Jones Industrial Average tends to be less volatile than the S&P 500. Bitcoin is the strongest asset in bear markets because it has greater institutional support. That's why I generally only trade $BTC and showed you that chart when I was asked why I don't trade $ETH right now. I want to accumulate Ethereum at the lowest price possible, but trade Bitcoin to get there. http://i.imgur.com/470O4B0.png Bitcoin is for bears, Ethereum is for bulls.
nhill rank	Wed Jul 14 02:19:19 2021 Right now we are in a bear market. I will trade $BTC in the range, and keep trying to snipe Ethereum at the low end of the range. $MATIC is also a steal right now.
nhill rank	Wed Jul 14 02:20:16 2021 Think of it this way. Bitcoin == Dow Jones Industrial Average Ethereum == Nasdaq 100 / S&P 500 All Other Coins == Individual Stocks This is the proper mindset to view the ecosystem.
nhill rank	Wed Jul 14 02:22:00 2021 If you want to go deeper, and look at the root the other reason is because EIP-1599 is around the corner soon. Ethereum is mutable by design. It changes frequently. Bitcoin doesn't change. It'll be more stable. It's not a bad investment, necessarily. But if you look at the performance difference between $QQQ and $DIA over the years, you'll see why I don't own any.
Rugian rank	Wed Jul 14 02:22:37 2021 I viewed your girlfriend's ecosystem
	show deleted posts